Political Science 103A:
Term Limits & the Legislature
Term Limits & the Legislature

The Term Limits Debate

Measuring the Impact of Limits
•Who goes to Sacramento?
•What goes on in Sacramento?
•What laws come out of Sacramento?
The Term Limits Debate

Turnover in a legislature is the
percentage of members who
enter/exit the body in a session.
•Fresh perspectives vs. lost expertise
•Professionalization changes
incentives and thus affects turnover
•Term limits dictates turnover
The Term Limits Debate

Turnover
in the US
Congress
dropped
between
1850 and
1900.
The Term Limits Debate

Turnover in California dropped
from approximately 30-50% at
mid century to 25% in the 1970s
to 13.5% in the 1980s.
•Unruh’s reforms provided the will.
•Willie Brown’s fundraising provided
the way for incumbents to stay in
office.
The Term Limits Debate:
The Pure Politics
Pete Schabarum



Retired L.A. County
Supervisor
Republican,
favored smaller
government
Compared Willie
Brown to “Kingfish”
Huey Long
Willie Brown



Assembly Speaker
from 1980-1995
Democrat, favored
bigger government
“Ayatollah of the
Assembly”
The Term Limits Debate:
An Academic Dispute



End careerism
Bring politicians
closer to the people
Stop expansion of
bureaucracy



Lose knowledge
Sever electoral link
Cede power to
lobbyists and
executive branch
The Term Limits Debate

In November, 1990, Proposition 140
passed 52%-48%. It limited members to
three 2-year terms in the Assembly, and
two 4-year terms in the Senate.
Measuring the Impact of Limits:
Who Goes to Sacramento?
Number of women in the Legislature grew
from 6 in 1977 to 17 in 1987 to 27 in 1997
14
13
12
11
10
8
8
6
6
9
Assembly
6
Senate
5
2
2
1
1
20
00 9
-2
00
1
7
98
-9
5
96
-9
90
-9
3
0
9
7
0
88
-8
3
2
94
-9
1
0
0
3
1
82
-8
80
-8
9
7
0
78
-7
5
0
76
-7
74
-7
3
0
1
86
-8
1
0
4
5
2
84
-8
2
4
92
-9
4
3
1
4
72
-7

3
Measuring the Impact of Limits:
Who Goes to Sacramento?
Racial and Ethnic Composition of the California
Assembly, 1990-2002
80
Number of Assemblymembers
70
69
63
62
58
60
57
54
51
50
White
Black
Latino
40
Asian
30
22
10
0
17
16
20
7
4
6
0
1990
10
7
1
1992
16
10
1
1994
4
1996
2
4
1998
2
4
2000
3
4
2002
6
Measuring the Impact of Limits:
Who Goes to Sacramento?
Control Case: Racial and Ethnic Composition of
California’s Congressional Delegation, 1996-2002
45
Number of Congressmembers
40
41
41
42
41
40
40
36
35
30
White
Black
Latino
Asian
25
20
15
10
5
43
2
443
443
45
2
45
4
1
7
6
2
4
2
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Measuring the Impact of Limits:
Who Goes to Sacramento?

“For the first two years you are figuring out what you
want to do, in your middle two years you have some
leverage, and in your last two you are termed out.”
0.700
0.600
Overall
Average
0.500
Democrats
0.400
Republicans
0.300
Female
Legislators
0.200
Male
Legislators
0.100
0.000
1986 1st
Term
1986 2nd
Term
1986 3rd
Term
1996 1st
Term
1996 2nd
Term
1996 3rd
Term
Measuring the Impact of Limits:
What Goes on In Sacramento
Chairs’ Prior Tenure in the Legislature (mean years).
16
Senate
13.7
14
Assembly
13.4
10.8
10
8
7.6
6
4.6
3.5
4
2
0
1979-1990
1991-1996
1997-2000
Years in Legislature
12
Measuring the Impact of Limits:
What Goes on In Sacramento
“There has been an essential evisceration of
the hearing process … Nothing dies
anymore, and there are no rules.”
When Committees
from this House…
Assembly
Hear Bills from this
House…
Percentage of Bills that Fail in Committee
Before Term Limits
After Term Limits
Assembly Bills
Senate Bills
36.3%
16.8%
23.3%
12.4%
Senate
Senate Bills
Assembly Bills
28.9%
13.0%
23.3%
6.3%
Overall
House of Origin Bills
Other House Bills
32.6%
14.9%
23.3%
9.1%
Assembly Committees
Senate Committees
26.6%
21.0%
18.2%
14.8%
Total
23.8%
16.5%
Measuring the Impact of Limits:
What Laws Come Out of Sacto?
Breadth of Senate Legislation Before and After Term Limits.
8
7.3
7
6.6
6
Mean Number of
Sections Affected
5.0
5
4.6
4
3
2
1
0.99
1.22
1.21
1.25
0
1979-80
Mean Number of
Codes Affected
1987-88
1997-98
1999-00
Reforming the Reform

On the ballot in February, 2008, Prop. 93
changed term limits to 12 total year of
service, in whichever house
• It applied to sitting legislators, and
grandfathered a few into a total of 18 years
• It lost by a 53-47% margin

An initiative on the next statewide ballot would
make the same change, but with no loopholes and
no application to current legislators
• It is polling at 68%
Discussion Questions

Proposition 93 would have allowed
legislators to serve 12 years total, rather
than 6 years in the Assembly and 8 years
in the Senate. What might this gain, and
what might it give up?

Can we ever trust a legislature to make
good decisions on the rules for governing
themselves, like term limits and
professionalism?