CORPORATE FINANCIAL THEORY Lecture 1 Corporate Financial Theory • Introductions • • • Faculty Students Syllabus & Website • • • Tests Homework (CONNECT) Supplements Course Goals Put meanings to words Transform the complex into the simple Make HBR readable Make WSJ readable Allow you to identify “BS” Improve critical thinking skills What is “Finance” Economics Theoretical Economics Microeconomics Macroeconomics Applied Economics Financial Economics ( “Finance” ) Classical Economics Supply Econometrics Adam Smith Capital Markets Investments Demand Monetary Policy Karl Marx Corporate Finance Asset Valuation Consumer Fiscal Policy John Keynes Risk Management Financial Institutions The Firm Milton Friedman What is “Finance” Economic Level The Role of Finance in Society Corporate Level Individual Level Same Principles apply to all Create value by… Grows the Efficiently economic Allocating pie Resources which … What is “Finance” Population Unemployed 1970 = 203 mil 2007 = 301 mil Employed What is “Finance” Goal of Finance Maximize the value of the firm What is “Finance” Accounting Accountin g Finance Statistics Economics What is “Finance” Finance uses … Accounting data Statistics Economic principles For purposes of … Critical Thinking Analysis Decision making Statistics Accounting Finance is not … Math Economics Regurgitation Critical Thinking & Analysis Other * Identifying relevant information * Data interpretation * NOT plug and chug How to Teach Critical Thinking DOES NOT WORK Memorization Root practice Pattern matching Examples Formulas TECHNIQUES See numerous new situations Learning via different methods Non-repetitive practice Review CONNECT MBA 680 Homework Frequently Asked Questions 1. What is the purpose of homework? Answer: The goal of the homework is to help you develop analysis and critical thinking skills. 2. How does the homework help develop analysis and critical thinking skills? Answer: MBA 680 homework requires you to “figure it out.” The technique employed is to give you questions you have never seen. Unlike the homework assignments in almost every other class you have ever taken, the homework in this class is not merely pattern matching. Traditional pattern matching eliminates critical thinking and analysis skills, by teaching you to look for familiar patterns and then apply them. MBA 680 Homework Frequently Asked Questions 3. How can I answer the question if I have never seen the type of problem before? Answer: That is the challenge. You must determine alternative approaches to traditional looking problems. Someone who has never seen a Delorean might spend all day trying to open the door and never succeed. Yet, once you realize the door opens up, instead of out, it seems so simple. A Chinese Finger Trap illustrates the same situation. The solution is impossible, counter intuitive and almost impossible to figure out, using traditional logic. Yet, when solved, it seems so simple. This is what you will experience in the homework. MBA 680 Homework Frequently Asked Questions 4. How does the homework align with the lectures and why does it not match what we cover in class? Answer: The homework is a supplemental learning tool. That means it is not a repeat and practice of what we covered in class. It is additional learning. Traditional homework is designed to be “repeat and practice” of what you covered in class. The homework in this course is designed TO BE DIFFERENT than what we covered in class. Development of critical thinking and analysis skills could not occur if the homework merely copied what was done in class. 5. How do I get help during an assignment? Answer: Send me a spreadsheet of your work. I will review it and send feedback. Since the online homework assignments are computational, you should do your work in a spreadsheet. Please do not wait until the due date to ask for help, as I may not be available to reply in sufficient time. If you are stuck at “I don’t know where to start,” read the chapter. While each problem is creative, they all originate from concepts presented in the book. MBA 680 Homework Frequently Asked Questions 6. I have spent many hours on one problem and cannot figure it out. What should I do? Answer: You should take a break long before spending hours on one problem. As you will see, the answers are relatively simple, yet creative. Thus, brute force is not always the answer. Sometimes, walking away and starting fresh is the best approach. When you return, however, read the questions SLOWLY and try a completely different approach. Often reading the question is the key, as nuances are sometimes buried in the question. 7. How much time should the homework take? Answer: It depends on the person. This is the most time consuming course for many students in the MBA program. Thus, you need to allocate considerable time outside of class. The first homework assignment is the most difficult and time consuming. Thus, students should start early. Since taking breaks and starting fresh sometimes works, starting near the due date reduces the chance to step away and return to the homework. MBA 680 Homework Frequently Asked Questions 8. Will you go over the homework answers in class? Answer: No. But, I will schedule a meeting to review it, individually. Once the homework due date has passed, you may see the answers and methods for solving the problems online. Almost always, the answer is creative, yet simple. Students often say “I can’t believe it was that easy.” If upon review of the answers, you still cannot figure out how the answer was calculated, contact me to schedule an appointment or visit me during my office hours. I am happy to review the homework with you, individually. 9. Will the test be like the homework? Answer: Mostly, No. The same concepts will be covered on the exam, but you will not be required to “figure it out,” as in the homework. Instead, you will be asked to apply what you have learned. If you have developed analysis skills, however, the test will be easier. The challenge on the test is to match the data provided with the finance technique required. Beyond this, the math is relatively easy. Time Value of Money Q: Which is greater? $100 today or $110 next year A: It Depends on Inflation. Example Bike Cost (today) = B0 = $100 Bike Cost (next year) = B1 = $110 B0 = B 1 $100 (today) = $110 (next year) 110 100 = 1.10 Time Value of Money C1 PV0 (1 r ) Example Bike Cost (today) = B0 = $100 Bike Cost (next year) = B1 = $110 B0 = B1 $100 (today) = $110 (next year) 100 = 10 1+.10 Time Value of Money C1 PV0 (1 r ) Modified formula for unknown time frame: Ct PV0 (1 r )t Net Present Value Example Q:Suppose we can invest $50 today & receive $60 later today. What is our profit? A: Profit = - $50 + $60 = $10 Net Present Value Example Suppose we can invest $50 today and receive $60 in one year. Assuming 10% inflation, what is our profit? 60 NPV = -50 + $4.55 1.10 Net Present Value NPV0 C0 (1 r )t Ct For multiple periods we have the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) formula NPV0 C0 (1 r )1 (1 r ) 2 .... C1 C2 Net Present Value Terminology C = Cash Flow t = time period r = “discount rate” or “cost of capital” Notes C is not an accounting number r is not inflation r is the cost at which you can raise capital. The cost depends on the risk. Net Present Value Example If you can invest $50 today and get $60 in return one year from now. What is your profit? (assume you can borrow money at 12%) 60 NPV = -50 + $3.57 1.12 Valuing an Office Building Step 1: Forecast cash flows Cost of building = C0 = 370,000 Sale price in Year 1 = C1 = 420,000 Step 2: Estimate opportunity cost of capital If equally risky investments in the capital market offer a return of 5%, then Cost of capital = r = 5% Valuing an Office Building Step 3: Discount future cash flows PV C1 (1r ) 420, 000 (1.05) 400,000 Step 4: Go ahead if PV of payoff exceeds investment NPV 400,000 370,000 30,000 Net Present Value NPV = PV - required investment C1 NPV = C0 1 r Risk and Present Value Higher risk projects require a higher rate of return Higher required rates of return cause lower PVs PV of C1 $420,000 at 5% 420,000 PV 400,000 1 .05 Risk and Present Value PV of C1 $420,000 at 12% 420,000 PV 375,000 1 .12 PV of C1 $420,000 at 5% 420,000 PV 400,000 1 .05 Risk and Net Present Value NPV = PV - required investment NPV = 375,000 - 370,000 $5,000 Net Present Value Rule Accept ALL investments that have positive net present value Example Suppose we can invest $50 today and receive $60 in one year. Should we accept the project given a 10% expected return? 60 NPV = -50 + $4.55 1.10 Net Present Value Rule Accept ALL investments that have positive net present value Example Suppose we can invest $50 today and receive $60 in one year. Should we accept the project given a 25% expected return? 60 NPV = -50 + $2.00 1.25 Rate of Return Rule Accept investments that offer rates of return in excess of their opportunity cost of capital Example In the project listed below, the foregone investment opportunity is 12%. Should we do the project? profit 420,000 370,000 Return .135 or 13.5% investment 370,000 Additivity Principle Good Company Bad Company Project NPV Project A $ 12 mil A $ 12 mil B $ 28 mil B $ 28 mil C $ 5 mil C - $ 5 mil Total Value .…. $ 45 mil Total Value …. $ 35 mil Project NPV A $ 12 mil B $ 28 mil C (discontinue) 0 Total Value …. $ 40 mil NPV Stop negative NPV Project Short Cuts Sometimes there are shortcuts that make it very easy to calculate the present value of an asset that pays off in different periods. These tools allow us to cut through the calculations quickly. Short Cuts Perpetuity C1 PV0 r Constant Growth Perpetuity Annuity C1 PV0 rg 1 1 PV0 C1 t r r ( 1 r ) Short Cuts Perpetuity - Financial concept in which a cash flow is theoretically received forever. cash flow PV of Cash Flow discount rate C1 PV0 r Present Values Example What is the present value of $1.2 billion every year, for all eternity, if you estimate the perpetual discount rate to be 8%?? PV $1.2 bil 0.08 $15 billion Present Values Example Tiburon Autos offers you “easy payments” of $5,000 per year, at the end of each year for 5 years. If interest rates are 7%, per year, what is the cost of the car? 5,000 Present Value at 0 year 0 5,000 / 1.07 4,673 5,000 / 1.07 4,367 2 5,000 / 1.07 4,081 3 5,000 / 1.07 3,814 4 5,000 / 1.07 3,565 Total NPV 20,501 5 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Year 1 2 3 4 5 Short Cuts Annuity - An asset that pays a fixed sum each year for a specified number of years. 1 1 PV of annuity C t r r 1 r Annuity Short Cut Example You agree to lease a car for 4 years at $300 per month. You are not required to pay any money up front or at the end of your agreement. If your opportunity cost of capital is 0.5% per month, what is the cost of the lease? Annuity Short Cut Example - continued You agree to lease a car for 4 years at $300 per month. You are not required to pay any money up front or at the end of your agreement. If your opportunity cost of capital is 0.5% per month, what is the cost of the lease? 1 1 Lease Cost 300 48 .005 .0051 .005 Cost $12,774.10 Annuity Short Cut Example The state lottery advertises a jackpot prize of $295.7 million, paid in 25 installments over 25 years of $11.828 million per year, at the end of each year. If interest rates are 5.9% what is the true value of the lottery prize? 1 1 Lottery Value 11.828 25 . 059 .0591 .059 Value $152,600,000 Constant Growth Perpetuity C1 PV0 rg g = the annual growth rate of the cash flow Constant Growth Perpetuity NOTE: This formula can be used to value a perpetuity at any point in time. C1 PV0 rg C t 1 PVt rg Constant Growth Perpetuity Example What is the present value of $1 billion paid at the end of every year in perpetuity, assuming a rate of return of 10% and a constant growth rate of 4%? 1 PV0 .10 .04 $16.667 billion Opportunity Cost of Capital How much “return” do you EXPECT to earn on your money? Opportunity Cost of Capital Example You may invest $100,000 today. Depending on the state of the economy, you may get one of three possible cash payoffs: Economy Payoff Slump Normal Boom $80,000 110,000 140,000 80,000 110,000 140,000 Expected payoff C1 $110,000 3 Opportunity Cost of Capital Example - continued The stock is trading for $95.65. Next year’s price, given a normal economy, is forecast at $110 The stocks expected payoff leads to an expected return. expected profit 110 95.65 Expected return .15 or 15% investment 95.65 Opportunity Cost of Capital Example - continued Discounting the expected payoff at the expected return leads to the PV of the project 110,000 PV $95,650 1.15 NPV requires the subtraction of the initial investment NPV 95,650 100,000 $ 4,350 Internal Rate of Return Rule Example - continued Accept the project only if the expected return exceeds the opportunity cost of capital Expected return expected profit 110,000 100,000 .10 or 10% investment 100,000 Internal Rate of Return IRR is related to Opportunity Cost of Capital Pay Attention to Math Internal Rate of Return Example You can purchase a turbo powered machine tool gadget for $4,000. The investment will generate $2,000 and $4,000 in cash flows for two years, respectively. What is the IRR on this investment? Internal Rate of Return Example You can purchase a turbo powered machine tool gadget for $4,000. The investment will generate $2,000 and $4,000 in cash flows for two years, respectively. What is the IRR on this investment? 2,000 4,000 NPV 4,000 0 1 2 (1 IRR ) (1 IRR ) IRR 28.08% Internal Rate of Return 2500 2000 IRR=28% 1000 500 -1000 -1500 -2000 Discount rate (%) 0 10 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 -500 20 0 10 NPV (,000s) 1500 Internal Rate of Return Pitfall 1 - Lending or Borrowing? Pitfall 2 - Multiple Rates of Return Pitfall 3 - Mutually Exclusive Projects Pitfall 4 - Term Structure Assumption Application of PV, NPV, DCF • • • • • Value bonds Value stocks Value projects (Capital Budgeting) Value companies (M&A) Value Capital Structure (debt vs. equity) Valuing Common Stocks Return Measurements Div 1 Dividend Yield P0 Div1 Restated P0 rg Div1 r g P0 Return on Equity ROE EPS ROE Book Equit y Per Share Valuing Common Stocks If we forecast no growth, and plan to hold out stock indefinitely, we will then value the stock as a PERPETUITY. Div1 EPS1 Perpetuity P0 or r r Assumes all earnings are paid to shareholders. Valuing Common Stocks Capitalization Rate can be estimated using the perpetuity formula, given minor algebraic manipulation. Div1 Capitalization Rate P0 rg Div1 r g P0 Valuing Common Stocks Dividend Discount Model - Computation of today’s stock price which states that share value equals the present value of all expected future dividends. Div1 Div2 Div H PH P0 ... 1 2 H (1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r ) H - Time horizon for your investment. Valuing Common Stocks Example Current forecasts are for XYZ Company to pay dividends of $3, $3.24, and $3.50 over the next three years, respectively. At the end of three years you anticipate selling your stock at a market price of $94.48. What is the price of the stock given a 12% expected return? Valuing Common Stocks Example Current forecasts are for XYZ Company to pay dividends of $3, $3.24, and $3.50 over the next three years, respectively. At the end of three years you anticipate selling your stock at a market price of $94.48. What is the price of the stock given a 12% expected return? 3.00 3.24 350 . 94.48 PV 1 2 3 (1.12) (1.12) (1.12) PV $75.00 Valuing Common Stocks Example If a stock is selling for $100 in the stock market, what might the market be assuming about the growth in dividends? $3.00 $100 .12 g g .09 Answer The market is assuming the dividend will grow at 9% per year, indefinitely. Valuing Common Stocks If a firm elects to pay a lower dividend, and reinvest the funds, the stock price may increase because future dividends may be higher. Payout Ratio - Fraction of earnings paid out as dividends Plowback Ratio - Fraction of earnings retained by the firm. Valuing Common Stocks Growth can be derived from applying the return on equity to the percentage of earnings plowed back into operations. g = return on equity X plowback ratio Valuing Common Stocks Example Our company forecasts to pay a $8.33 dividend next year, which represents 100% of its earnings. This will provide investors with a 15% expected return. Instead, we decide to plowback 40% of the earnings at the firm’s current return on equity of 25%. What is the value of the stock before and after the plowback decision? Valuing Common Stocks Example Our company forecasts to pay a $8.33 dividend next year, which represents 100% of its earnings. This will provide investors with a 15% expected return. Instead, we decide to plowback 40% of the earnings at the firm’s current return on equity of 25%. What is the value of the stock before and after the plowback decision? No Growth 8.33 P0 $55.56 .15 With Growth g .25 .40 .10 5.00 P0 $100.00 .15 .10 Valuing Common Stocks Example - continued If the company did not plowback some earnings, the stock price would remain at $55.56. With the plowback, the price rose to $100.00. The difference between these two numbers is called the Present Value of Growth Opportunities (PVGO). PVGO 100.00 55.56 $44.44 Valuing Common Stocks Present Value of Growth Opportunities (PVGO) - Net present value of a firm’s future investments. Sustainable Growth Rate - Steady rate at which a firm can grow: plowback ratio X return on equity. Constant Growth DDM - A version of the dividend growth model in which dividends grow at a constant rate (Gordon Growth Model). * FCF and PV * Free Cash Flows (FCF) should be the theoretical basis for all PV calculations. FCF is a more accurate measurement of PV than either Div or EPS. The market price does not always reflect the PV of FCF. When valuing a business for purchase, always use FCF. Valuing a Business Valuing a Business or Project The value of a business or Project is usually computed as the discounted value of FCF out to a valuation horizon (H). The valuation horizon is sometimes called the terminal value and is calculated like PVGO. FCF1 FCF2 FCFH PVH PV ... 1 2 H (1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r ) H Valuing a Business Valuing a Business or Project FCF1 FCF2 FCFH PVH PV ... 1 2 H (1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r ) H PV (free cash flows) PV (horizon value) Valuing a Business Example Given the cash flows for Concatenator Manufacturing Division, calculate the PV of near term cash flows, PV (horizon value), and the total value of the firm. r=10% and g= 6% Valuing a Business Example - continued Given the cash flows for Concatenator Manufacturing Division, calculate the PV of near term cash flows, PV (horizon value), and the total value of the firm. r=10% and g= 6% 1.09 Horizon Value 27.3 .10 .06 27.30 PV(Horizon Value) 15.4 6 1.10 0 0 0 0.42 0.46 .50 1.1 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 0.90 PV(FCF) Valuing a Business Example - continued Given the cash flows for Concatenator Manufacturing Division, calculate the PV of near term cash flows, PV (horizon value), and the total value of the firm. r=10% and g= 6% PV(business) PV(FCF) PV(horizon value) 0.90 15.40 $16.3 million Valuing a Business Example Given the cash flows for Concatenator Manufacturing Division, calculate the PV of near term cash flows, PV (horizon value), and the total value of the firm. r=10% and g= 6% Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 Asset Value 10.00 12.00 14.40 17.28 20.74 23.43 Earnings 1.20 1.44 1.73 2.07 2.49 2.81 Investment 2.00 2.40 2.88 3.46 2.69 3.04 Free Cash Flow - .80 - .96 - 1.15 - 1.39 - .20 - .23 .EPS growth (%) 20 20 20 20 20 13 7 8 9 10 26.47 28.05 29.73 31.51 3.18 3.36 3.57 3.78 1.59 1.68 1.78 1.89 1.59 1.68 1.79 1.89 13 6 6 6 Valuing a Business Example - continued Given the cash flows for Concatenator Manufacturing Division, calculate the PV of near term cash flows, PV (horizon value), and the total value of the firm. r=10% and g= 6% 1 1.59 PV(horizon value) 22.4 6 1.1 .10 .06 .80 .96 1.15 1.39 .20 .23 PV(FCF) 2 3 4 5 6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 3.6 Valuing a Business Example - continued Given the cash flows for Concatenator Manufacturing Division, calculate the PV of near term cash flows, PV (horizon value), and the total value of the firm. r=10% and g= 6% PV(busines s) PV(FCF) PV(horizon value) -3.6 22.4 $18.8 Alternatives to NPV • • • • • Payback Method Average Return on Book Value Internal Rate of Return Equivalent Annual Annuity Profitability Index CFO Decision Tools Survey Data on CFO Use of Investment Evaluation Techniques NPV, 75% IRR, 76% Payback, 57% Book rate of return, 20% Profitability Index, 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% SOURCE: Graham and Harvey, “The Theory and Practice of Finance: Evidence from the Field,” Journal of Financial Economics 61 (2001), pp. 187-243. Book Rate of Return Book Rate of Return - Average income divided by average book value over project life. Also called accounting rate of return. book income Book rate of return book assets Managers rarely use this measurement to make decisions. The components reflect tax and accounting figures, not market values or cash flows. Payback The payback period of a project is the number of years it takes before the cumulative forecasted cash flow equals the initial outlay. The payback rule says only accept projects that “payback” in the desired time frame. This method is flawed, primarily because it ignores later year cash flows and the the present value of future cash flows. Payback Example Examine the three projects and note the mistake we would make if we insisted on only taking projects with a payback period of 2 years or less. Project C0 C1 C2 C3 A - 2000 500 500 5000 B - 2000 500 1800 0 C - 2000 1800 500 0 Payback Period NPV@ 10% Payback Example Examine the three projects and note the mistake we would make if we insisted on only taking projects with a payback period of 2 years or less. C3 Payback Project C0 C1 C2 A - 2000 500 500 B - 2000 500 1800 0 2 - 58 C - 2000 1800 500 0 2 50 Period 5000 3 NPV@ 10% 2,624 Problems with CB & NPV 1 – Determine relevant cash flows 2 - Cash flows not guaranteed 3 - Projects with different lives Timing Equivalent annual annuity (cost) Profitability Index Linear Programming Equivalent Annuities Proj 0 1 2 3 4 A -15 4.9 5.2 5.9 6.2 B -20 8.1 8.7 10.4 assume 9% discount rate NPV Eq. Ann. Equivalent Annuities Proj 0 1 2 3 4 NPV A -15 4.9 5.2 5.9 6.2 2.82 B -20 8.1 8.7 10.4 assume 9% discount rate 2.78 Eq. Ann. Equivalent Annuities Proj 0 1 2 3 4 NPV A -15 4.9 5.2 5.9 6.2 2.82 .87 B -20 8.1 8.7 10.4 2.78 1.10 assume 9% discount rate Eq. Ann. Profitability Index When resources are limited, the profitability index (PI) provides a tool for selecting among various project combinations and alternatives A set of limited resources and projects can yield various combinations. The highest weighted average PI can indicate which projects to select. Profitability Index Cash Flows ($ millions) Project A C0 C1 10 30 C2 5 NPV @ 10% 21 B 5 5 20 16 C 5 5 15 12 D 0 40 60 13 Profitability Index Cash Flows ($ millions) Project A Investment ($) 10 NPV ($) Profitabil ity Index 21 2.1 B 5 16 3.2 C 5 12 2.4 D 0 13 0.4 Profitability Index NPV Profitabil ity Index Investment Example We only have $300,000 to invest. Which do we select? Proj A B C D NPV 230,000 141,250 194,250 162,000 Investment 200,000 125,000 175,000 150,000 PI 1.15 1.13 1.11 1.08 Profitability Index Example - continued Proj NPV A 230,000 B 141,250 C 194,250 D 162,000 Investment 200,000 125,000 175,000 150,000 PI 1.15 1.13 1.11 1.08 Select projects with highest Weighted Average P.I. 125 150 25 𝑊𝐴𝑃𝐼 𝐵𝐷 = 1.13 × + 1.08 × + 0.0 × 300 300 300 =1.01 Profitability Index Example - continued Proj NPV A 230,000 B 141,250 C 194,250 D 162,000 Investment 200,000 125,000 175,000 150,000 PI 1.15 1.13 1.11 1.08 Select projects with highest Weighted Average P.I. WAPI (BD) = 1.01 WAPI (A) = 0.77 WAPI (BC) = 1.12 Linear Programming Maximize Cash flows or NPV Minimize costs Example Max NPV = 21Xn + 16 Xb + 12 Xc + 13 Xd subject to 10Xa + 5Xb + 5Xc + 0Xd <= 10 -30Xa - 5Xb - 5Xc + 40Xd <= 12 Capital Budgeting Rules Valuing a project = capital budgeting 4 Rules of Capital Budgeting 1 - Consider all cash flows 2 - Discount all CF at opportunity cost of capital 3 - Select project that maximizes shareholder wealth 4 - Must consider projects independent of each other = “Additivity Principle” NPV is used to evaluate projects because its satisfies all rules Capital Budgeting Rules Only Cash Flow is Relevant Capital Budgeting Rules Points to “Watch Out For” Do not confuse average with incremental payoff Include all incidental effects Do not forget working capital requirements Forget sunk costs Include opportunity costs Beware of allocated overhead costs Capital Budgeting Rules INFLATION RULE Be consistent in how you handle inflation!! Use nominal interest rates to discount nominal cash flows. Use real interest rates to discount real cash flows. You will get the same results, whether you use nominal or real figures