London’s industrial land: cause for concern?
Dr Jessica Ferm and Edward Jones
Bartlett School of Planning, UCL
LSE London seminar, 2 March 2015
“Industrial areas in London are not
well-understood. Most people have
no idea what is made and
assembled in their borough,
because industrial areas are
unwelcoming and do not have a
public face”
(Gort Scott, 2013)
Abbey Industrial Estate, Wembley (© Jessica Ferm)
THE CHALLENGE FOR LONDON
CENTRAL
PROJECTION:
3.5m (37%) growth
(2011-2050)
Source: GLA Intelligence (2013) Population and employment projections to support the London Infrastructure Plan 2050.
http://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/gla-employment-projections (adapted by Jenny Jones, Feb 2015)
Challenge for the Mayor
Accommodate “growth
within the capital’s
boundaries and without
intruding strategically on its
protected green and open
spaces”
(Draft Further Alterations to the London Plan, Jan 2014)
‘Managed release’ of industrial land (London Plan, 2011)
Classifications of industrial land
• Strategic Industrial Locations – loss only permitted
if part of a coordinated process of consolidation e.g.
Opportunity areas
• Locally Significant Industrial Sites – regular
reviews of supply and demand to justify continued
protection
• Other Industrial Sites – not protected, to be carefully
managed by boroughs, together with LSIS make up 50%
London’s industrial capacity
Loss of industrial land since 2001
APPROX TWICE GLA benchmark for
‘managed release’
Research questions
• Is deindustrialisation driving the loss of industrial
land?
• Who occupies space on London’s industrial land?
• How important are these businesses for London?
• Can we protect these businesses AND promote
mixed use redevelopment on our industrial land?
The study: Pulls together and reframes existing research and information
INDUSTRY IN LONDON AND THE
ROLE OF PLANNING
Industry in London – historical context
“the capital was clearly the most important single seat of
manufacturing industry in the country, accounting for between one
and six and one in seven of all manufacturing workers in 1861, over
one in six in 1921, and over one in five in 1951. Manufacturing
occupied nearly one in three of all workers in London in 1861 and one
in three in 1951” (The Industries of London, Peter Hall, 1961: 23)
• London’s industry – diverse not specialist
• End of the production chain
• Proximity to large and wealthy market – access to
national and international
• Both specialist and cheap labour
• Diversification and expansion beyond inner belt
•
•
•
•
Decentralisation
Protect and invest
(1940s – 1970s)
(1970s – 1980s)
Barlow
Commission
(1940)
Greater London
Plan (1944)
Distribution of
Industry Act
(1945)
Industrial
Development
Certificates
(IDCs)
•
•
•
•
Policy for the
Inner Cities
Inner Urban
Areas Act
(1978)
Industrial
Improvement
Areas
GLC: London
Industrial
Strategy (1984)
Urban
renaissance and
mixed use
(1990s+)
•
•
•
Richard Rogers
“Cities for a
Small Planet”
(1997)
Urban Task
Force “Towards
an Urban
Renaissance”
(1999)
Compact City
philosophy
‘Market realism’
(2000s+)
•
•
•
‘Employment
land reviews
guidance note’
(ODPM, 2004)
PPS4 ‘Planning
for Sustainable
Growth’ (2008)
National
Planning Policy
Framework
(2012)
Urban renaissance
Housing is one of the keys to consolidating the
neighbourhoods of our city. The way to meet the huge
demand and to strengthen our existing communities is
to redevelop derelict and brown land to produce
dense, compact and mixed developments.
(Rogers and Gumuchdjian, 1997: 118)
For and against industrial ‘zoning’
AGAINST
• Market allocates scarce
resources most efficiently
• Zoning is outdated, does
not support compact,
mixed-use cities, is
unsustainable
FOR
• Planning can correct
market failures
• Prevents land value
inflation, supports
agglomeration of lowvalue small firms
• More efficient, less costly
allocation of infrastructure
• Provides flexibility
• Promotes social equity
REAL ESTATE SPECULATION NOT
DEINDUSTRIALISATION
What might be driving the loss?
• Loss of industrial land above GLA benchmarks
suggests something else is going on over and
above deindustrialisation
• Impact of real estate speculation and planning
policy NOT taken into account
• Evidence from Brooklyn, NY of displacement of
industry due to real estate speculation for loft
conversions reinforced by city planners (Curran 2004, 2007)
Evidence from London
• Speculative office development in 1980s
commercial boom displaced small manufacturers
in Shoreditch, facilitated by changes to Use
Classes Order 1987
• Camden and Islington employment land reviews
(2008, 2011) – planned reductions in supply and
predictions of continuing loss despite high
demand and low vacancy rates
There has been pressure to redevelop the borough’s stock
of land used for employment purposes, particularly
manufacturing and industry, for higher value uses,
principally housing. Once employment land in the
borough has been developed for an alternative use it is
very unlikely it will ever be returned to industrial use.
There has been virtually no new provision of such
premises in the borough for many years
Camden Core Strategy (2010)
Evidence from London’s industrial estates
• Rumours and speculation of threat create
uncertainty, unwillingness to invest and commit
• In anticipation of redevelopment, landlords are
offering increasingly short and insecure leases
• Leads to vacancies, high turnover, strengthening
the case for redevelopment
MANUFACTURING IS CHANGING
BUT IT’S NOT DEAD
• Larger companies are being replaced by
smaller firms
• Diversity and complexity
Images from Gort Scott (2013)
• Growth of niches such as artisanal
manufacturing, production of luxury goods,
smaller food and drink manufacturers
• In London, productivity is strong, high GVA
INDUSTRIAL LAND ACCOMMODATES
A RANGE OF DIVERSE BUSINESSES
AND ACTIVITIES, VITAL TO LONDON
• Manufacturing is
changing
• But manufacturing is not
the dominant activity
Image from Ramidus (2013)
Image from GLA (2014)
Servicing the city
London’s Strategic
Infrastructure
Image from Closed Loop
Image from GLA
Image from Hugo Glendinning
• Cultural and creative industries
• Other diverse, small occupiers
BUSINESSES ON INDUSTRIAL LAND
ARE PART OF A DELICATE LOCAL
ECOLOGY
Interdependencies in London’s economy
• Can firms simply move ‘elsewhere’?
• Place-specific supporting infrastructure
“If you look at our employees where they live, it’s like a circle around
this place. So to move out from the middle of the circle, we’d cause
problems for ourselves. It’s like a craftsmanship job that we do here,
and it’s good to have those skilled people to do it. It’s not so easy.
Certain types of industry, you get rid of these people, and you get
other people. And you start someplace else. It’s like nothing. Our
business is different than that.”
Clothing manufacturer in Williamsburg, from Curran (2010)
Image from ninebelow via flickr
“As businesses started to move, I
started to lose customers because
all of the businesses round here are
linked.”
From Raco and Tunney (2010)
“At the moment, 80 per cent of our
business customers are within a 2mile radius. A lot are moving or have
already moved. Two of our main
customers used to live next door—
now we’ve lost them.”
“Premises suitable for industrial, manufacturing and
warehousing businesses provide jobs for people who would
otherwise be at high risk of being unemployed or workless.
The Camden employment land review 2008, using data from
the National Employer Survey 2003 and the Annual
Business Inquiry 2006, found that the skills required for these
sectors are fundamentally different from other sectors with
similar qualification level requirements, such as retail, leisure
and hospitality. Therefore, it is unlikely that the retail or
hospitality sectors will provide straightforward alternative job
opportunities for people losing industrial/warehousing jobs in
the borough.”
LB Camden Core Strategy, 8.12
Images from LSE Cities and Hall (2013)
Images from Gort Scott
A RETURN TO THE 19TH CENTURY
INDUSTRIOUS CITY?
Celebrating manufacturing
“There is an opportunity to move away from the rooted practice to design
these sectors out of our towns and cities. Let’s make them visible again
and stop housing them in anonymous sheds. Let’s re-appropriate
industrial estates and districts through raising the quality of their design
and maintenance. As a result, local communities could have a better
understanding of how their local economy is formed and develop a sense
of ownership. Let’s celebrate manufacturing industry again.”
Urban Design Group, 2014: 2
Category 1
sites
Category 2
sites
Category 3
sites
•
•
•
Articulated HGV access
24 hour operation
Single storey premises, 5-6m
min floor to ceiling heights
•
Access for large commercial
vehicles
24 hour operation
Multi storey premises with goods
lift
•
•
•
•
•
Poor access
Incompatible neighbouring
residential uses
Restricted operational hours
Typology from Roger Tym and Partners (2011) ‘Business premises study’
A cautious approach to mixed use
• In London, strength of the residential property
market and the imbalance of land values
• New housing in industrial areas undermines the
important function of industrial land being to
protect lower-value commercial uses from
competition from higher land values,
• Raises expectations that further redevelopment
can take place – ‘hope values’.
Conclusions: drivers of loss
• Loss of industrial land due to real estate
speculation, fuelled by planning policy
• Predictions of future employment in manufacturing
and industry do not take into account the role that
development pressure and planning policy have
played in past loss
Conclusions: nature and importance of
industrial land
• London’s industrial areas are vibrant and diverse
• Manufacturing is not dead
• Flexibility and affordability of premises attracts a
range of other activities
• Delicate ecology, much is hidden
• Relocation is difficult
• Vital for London and Londoners
Conclusions: Implications for policy
• No effective mechanisms within the UK legislative
and planning system to manipulate land values
within mixed-use context.
• Extension of permitted development rights –
imminent threat
• A positive approach is required, acknowledging
importance of industrial land as a vital component
of a compact, smart city, not a barrier.
Further reading:
• Ferm, J. and Jones, E. (2015) London's Industrial Land: Cause for
Concern? UCL (University College London): London, UK. Available
at: https://justspacelondon.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/ferm-joneslondons-industrial-land-working-paper-final1.pdf
• Just space Economy and Planning response to consultation on the
Further Alterations to the London Plan:
https://justspacelondon.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/falp-jsepresponse.pdf
Jenny Jones’ (Green Party London Assembly
member) campaign:
• “The End of Industry in London?” report (Feb 2015):
https://www.london.gov.uk/media/assembly-member-pressreleases/green-party/2015/02/mayor-plans-for-london-manufacturingto-disappear-within-fifty
• Blog: http://www.citymetric.com/business/london-doesnt-only-needhouses-we-should-protect-its-industrial-land-too-783
• Article: http://leftfootforward.org/2015/02/londons-industry-is-beingcleared-for-a-luxury-flat-monoculture/
• BBC London coverage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaMYGZXojdY
• Jenny Jones questions Deputy Mayor for Planning, Sir Edward Lister:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o10bOvYBkcM