Report 75.0
- 1st Quarter Release Johannesburg
14 May 2014
General
Local Developments:
Media Inflation Watch Up-date 2013
Media Inflation Watch revealed Radio as the most
aggressive platform from a rate perspective; up 11.54%
yoy.
With declining circulation, however, and an absence of
support / research from the key players in print, the
published inflation data must be raising value concerns.
AMPS / JIC’s and the rest!
With the latest AMPS hot into the market, many marketers and perhaps
publishers have perhaps taken their collective eye off the future of what will
become of AMPS in its new “establishment” survey role. PAMS has still to be
agreed, it’s content decided and funding issues remain the elephant in the room.
What is clear is that the TV broadcasters are now driving the process and even
siblings such as radio appear now to be an afterthought.
Print has a powerful story to tell as proven over the passing of Nelson Mandela
and recently demonstrated via Millward Brown’s independent research.
Print research going forward must demonstrate the value of print and not just the
quantum. Value is determined by return on investment and not just the rates
charged..
Finally, in respect of the research, we should remember that digital is the new
print ink, and not a competitor. The future for print in Africa will be a combination
of both written delivery methods.
International Developments:
Print “Only” readership holding its own in the USA
•
A new analysis (Feb 2014) of the most recent
newspaper audience reports suggests a
surprising split in reading habits. Digital
audience continues to grow. Mobile audience
is growing quickly. Mobile-only audience,
though much smaller, has grown to 7 million.
•
Yet more than half of newspaper audience —
54 percent still read their local paper’s news
report only in print.
•
The daily circulation gains (+3%) however
were entirely driven by digital gains at the
largest newspapers.
•
Sunday gains also reflected the heavy use of
“Sunday Select” products — packets of inserts
to non-subscribers — by larger papers.
Rule Amendments effective
1st January 2014:
PDF Replica Editions:
• Paid Circulation – circulation is counted when
payment is received.
• Bulk sales – The publisher must prove distribution
in terms of a list provided by the purchaser –
limited to 10% of total paid circulation.
• Free bulk distribution is excluded.
Membership Statistics:
31 December 2013
Magazines
Admissions
Removals
-
524
218
184
102
20
366
28
13
29
55
5
236
-
7
526
2
-4
Consumer
220
2
-4
Business to Business
184
-
-
Custom
102
-
-
Free Magazines
20
-
-
Newspapers
361
10
Daily
27
1
Weekly
15
Weekend
27
Local
57
Hybrid
5
1
Free Newspapers
230
6
Advertising Brochures
Total ABC Members
7
894
-5
-
-
-2
2
-
-
-2
12
31 March 2014
-1
-9
897
Sector size ranked by circulation–
Quarter 1 2014:
POSITION
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
SECTOR
Custom Magazines
Free Newspapers
Consumer Magazines
Weekend Newspapers
Daily Newspapers
B2B Magazines
Advertising Brochures
Weekly Newspapers
Free Magazines
Local Newspapers
Hybrid Newspapers
TOTAL
CIRCULATION
11 787 596
6 596 237
5 888 456
2 086 611
1 622 041
1 159 427
934 869
621 750
527 859
432 771
23 136
31 680 753
NUMBER OF
PUBLICATIONS
102
236
218
29
28
184
7
13
20
55
5
AVERAGE
115 565
27 950
27 011
71 952
57 930
6 301
133 553
47 827
26 393
7 869
4 627
897
35 319
Overall Economic Perspective
Comment:
Real GDP at market prices increased by 1.9% in 2013. The main increase was in
Finance, Real Estate & Business.
Retail sales grew by 2.2% year on year in February 2014.The main increase was in
Textiles, Clothing, Footwear and Leather.
4 Year Total Newspaper Circulation Trend by
Quarter:
10,800,000
10,700,000
Total newspaper
circulation
10,600,000
10,500,000
10,400,000
10,300,000
10,200,000
10,100,000
Comment:
Total Newspaper circulation increased by 20,000 compared to the previous quarter.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Daily Newspapers
Comment:
•
•
Circulation has declined annually by 4.5% since 2010, equivalent to
304,000 copies.
However, Q1 remained static, compared to Q4.
4 Year Trend Analysis by Language
Daily Newspapers
Comment:
English titles have declined by 4.7% annually (232, 000 copies) over the period.
Afrikaans titles have declined by 6.5% annually (87,000 copies) over the period.
Vernacular titles have increased by 3.5% (15,000 copies) over the period.
4 Year Trend Analysis: Coastal vs Inland
Daily Newspapers
Comment:
Inland circulation declined annually by 4.7% (208,000 copies) over
the period.
Coastal circulation declined annually by 4.% (96,000 copies) over the
period. Q1 increased by 20,000 copies compared to Q4.
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Daily Newspapers
Publication
Name
No
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous
Prior Year Quarter Previous
Period
Quarter
1 Daily Dispatch
30,199
28,879
4,57%
25,521
18,33%
2 Isolezwe
119,846
116,186
3,15%
107,119
11,88%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Daily Newspapers
Publication
Name
No
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year Quarter
Previous
Quarter
Citizen, The
1 (Daily)
57,385
63,854
-10,13%
58,735
-2,30%
2 Cape Argus
30,319
33,247
-8,81%
30,204
0,38%
3 Son (Daily)
84,87
92,213
-7,96%
86,837
-2,27%
New Members / Removals
Daily Newspapers
New Member
Title
Zambia Daily Mail
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Weekly Newspapers
Comment:
•
•
Weekly newspapers reflect an erratic performance.
Q1, however, declined by 2.5% (13,000 copies) compared to Q4.
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Weekly Newspapers
Publication
No Name
1 Soccer Laduma
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year
317,013
289,654
9,45%
Variance Previous Previous
Quarter Quarter
307,275
3,17%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Weekly Newspapers
Publication
No Name
1 Motorsport World
Corresponding
TOTAL
Previous
Variance CIRCULATION Period
Prior Year
Variance Previous Previous
Quarter Quarter
4,997
6,143
-18,66%
8,227
-39,26%
2 Ilanga
100,853
117,115
-13,89%
95,994
5,06%
3 Mail & Guardian
44,266
45,279
-2,24%
51,551
-14,13%
New Members / Removals
Weekly Newspapers
Removal
Title
Auto week
The Zimbabwean
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Weekend Newspapers
Comment:
Circulation has declined annually by 5% (485,000 copies) over the period.
Q1, however, only declined by 1.8% (34,000 copies) compared to Q4.
4 Year Trend Analysis by Language:
Weekend Newspapers
Comment:
English titles have declined annually by 5.5% (367,000 copies) over the period.
Afrikaans titles have declined annually by 8% (193,000 copies) over the period.
Vernacular titles have grown annually by 11.6% (76,000 copies) over the period.
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Weekend Newspapers
Corresponding
Variance TOTAL
Previous
Variance - Previous Previous
Prior Year Quarter Quarter
No Publication Name CIRCULATION Period
1 Saturday Dispatch
22,109
20,450
8,11%
20,679
6,92%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Weekend Newspapers
Variance TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Previous
No Publication Name CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year Quarter Quarter
1 Rapport
2 Beeld, Saturday
Volksblad –
3 Saturday
4 Ilanga Langesonto
Pretoria News
5 Saturday
Son op Sondag
(formerly Sondag
6 Son)
177,016
210,675
-15,98%
187,288
-5,48%
55,26
65,645
-15,82%
58,411
-5,39%
17,913
20,234
-11,47%
18,286
-2,04%
55,224
61,918
-10,81%
56,074
-1,52%
10,177
11,382
-10,59%
10,126
0,50%
50,186
55,885
-10,20%
54,625
-8,13%
New Members / Removals
Weekend Newspapers
New Member
Title
Saturday Mail
Sunday Mail
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Local Newspapers
Comment:
Local Newspapers have declined by 2.8% (63,000 copies) over the period.
Q1 increased by 11,000 copies compared to Q4.
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Local Newspapers
No Publication Name
Variance TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Previous
CIRCULATION Previous Period Prior Year Quarter Quarter
1 Review Midweek
2,976
2,311
28,78%
2,738
8,69%
2 Capricorn Voice
Lowvelder, The /
Laevelder, Die (
3 Tuesday)
5,975
5,186
15,21%
5,693
4,95%
14,697
13,258
10,85%
13,686
7,39%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Local Newspapers
No Publication Name
Corresponding
Variance TOTAL
Previous
Variance - Previous Previous
CIRCULATION Period
Prior Year Quarter Quarter
1 The Mail
12,673
16,834
-24,72%
12,637
0,28%
2 Standerton Advertiser
3,052
3,563
-14,34%
3,199
-4,60%
3 Rustenburg Herald
22,397
25,606
-12,53%
21,874
2,39%
New Members / Removals
Local Newspapers
Removal
Title
Letaba Herald
Palaborwa Herald
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Hybrid Newspapers
Comment:
Circulation shows a dramatic decline as a result of The Times moving to Daily
Newspapers in Q4.
Q1 remained static compared to Q4.
New Members / Removals
Hybrid Newspapers
New Member
Title
The Zimbabwean
Removal
Title
Free State Times
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Free Newspapers
Total Circulation
8,000,000
Total Circulation
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
Q1
Q2
Q3
2010
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2011
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2012
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
2014
Comment:
Distribution has increased annually by 7.1% (1,513,000 copies) over the period.
Q1 increased by 53,000 copies compared to Q4.
New Members / Removals
Free Newspapers
New Members
Title
Bash Lifestyle
Ermelo Insig/Insight
Highlands Panorama News
Rise n Shine - Capricorn, Mopane, Vhembe
Rise n Shine - Waterburg
Secunda & Betal Insig
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Free Newspapers
Publication Name
No
1
2
Northern Eyethu
Midvaal Ster
Kalahari Buletin
(Formerly Kuruman
3 Bulletin)
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous
- Prior
Quarter Previous
Period
Year
Quarter
21360
6002
255,88%
21402
-0,20%
15540
9034
72,02%
15069
3,13%
27832
19867
40,09%
27834
-0,01%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Free Newspapers
No Publication Name
1
2
Makhado Review
Veereniging Ster
Rekord
3 Central/Sentraal
4
Express
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance
CIRCULATION Previous
- Prior
Period
Year
Previous Variance Quarter Previous
Quarter
924
5800
-84,07%
472
95,76%
16806
23709
-29,12%
17631
-4,68%
18391
22540
-18,41%
18391
0,00%
43928
53733
-18,25%
47205
-6,94%
4 Year Magazine Circulation by Quarter
Comment:
Total magazines increased by 0.5% (97,000 copies) over the previous quarter.
Consumer magazines decreased by 0.4% (24,000 copies) over the previous
quarter.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Consumer Magazines
Comment:
Circulation declined annually by 1.7% (468,000 copies) over the period,
although the decline has slowed in Q1 compared to the previous 6 quarters.
New Members / Removals
Consumer Magazines
New Members
Title
The 12th Player
The Bass Angler
Removals
Title
FHM
PC Format
Real Magazine
Tight Lines
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Consumer Magazines
Publication
No Name
Kuier Combo
1 (Annual)
SA Career Focus
2 (Six monthly)
3
4
Super Bike
Real Brides
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous
Prior Year Quarter Previous
Period
Quarter
105 511
23 077
357,21%
4 835
2 412
100,46%
9722
6172
57,52%
6432
51,15%
2192
1507
45,45%
1723
27,22%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Consumer Magazines
Publication
No Name
Tech-Smart
1 Magazine
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous
Prior Year Quarter Previous
Period
Quarter
14767
74304
-80,13%
14784
-0,11%
2 HQ Pony
3782
9909
-61,83%
3729
1,42%
3 Today's Child
10069
24016
-58,07%
10034
0,35%
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Consumer Magazines - Home
Comment:
Circulation has remained static over the period,
Q1, however, increased by 20,000 copies compared to Q4..
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Consumer Magazines - Sport and Hobby
Comment:
Circulation declined annually by 3.3% (66,000 copies) over the period.
Q1 remained static compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Consumer Magazines - Travel
Comment:
Circulation increased annually by 22.7% (259,000 copies) over the period,
fluctuating considerably as a result of biennial reporting titles.
Q1 increased by 19,000 copies compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Consumer Magazines – Woman’s General
Comment:
Circulation declined by 3.4% annually (237,000 copies) over the period.
Q1 decreased by 48,000 copies compared to Q4, mainly the result of a
discontinued title.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Business to Business Magazines
Comment:
Circulation has remained static over the period.
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Business to Business Magazines
No Publication Name
Business Brief (Six
1 monthly)
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous
Prior Year Quarter Previous
Period
Quarter
31 270
19 216
62,73%
MIMS Guide to OTC
2 Products (Annual)
2 857
1 778
60,69%
3 Poultry Focus Africa
4352
2927
48,68%
4254
2,30%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Business to Business Magazines
No Publication Name
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous
Prior Year Quarter Previous
Period
Quarter
1 RISKsa
2004
6602
-69,65%
7399
-72,92%
My Office (formerly
2 Shop-SA)
3969
7970
-50,20%
3987
-0,45%
Business In Durban
3 (Annual)
8770
14561
-39,77%
Modern Medicine
4 Magazine
3912
5986
-34,65%
4021
-2,71%
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
B2B Magazines – Hospitality, Catering
and Tourism
Comment:
Circulation declined annually by 13% (62,000 copies) over the period, although
has remained fairly static over the last year.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Custom Magazines
Comment:
Circulation increased annually by 2% (918,000 copies) over the period.
Q1 increased by 204,000 copies compared to Q4.
Titles Showing Largest Growth
Custom Magazines
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous
Prior Year Quarter Previous
Period
Quarter
No Publication Name
TAXtalk (Six
10 082
2 028
1 monthly)
397,14%
2 TFG Escapes
59 080
27 656
113,62%
3 Mercedes (Annual)
31 355
15 840
97,95%
4 TFG Man
61 562
32 349
90,31%
57 346
3,02%
56829
8,33%
Titles Showing Largest Decline
Custom Magazines
Publication Name
No
TOTAL
Corresponding Variance - Previous Variance CIRCULATION Previous
Prior Year Quarter Previous
Period
Quarter
Strategic Marketing
Magazine (Six
1 monthly)
5 145
16 763
-69,31%
Q-One Student
2 Diary (Annual)
54 054
103 060
-47,55%
The SA Journal of
Epidemoilogy &
Infection (SAJEI)
3 (Annual)
1 069
1 922
-44,38%
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Custom Magazines – Entertainment
Comment:
Circulation increased annually by 5.7% (513,000 copies) over the period.
However, Q1 increased by 9% (221,000 copies) compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Custom Magazines – Retail
Comment:
Circulation increased annually by 1% (263,000 copies) over the period.
Q1 remained static compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:
Free Magazines
Comment:
Circulation declined annually by 16.9% over the period.
Q1 decreased by 10% (60,000 copies) compared to Q4.
Observations:
•
With the elections behind us we should remember that circulation
remains “democracy in print”; perhaps the most accurate expression of public
support” available for publisher and advertiser scrutiny and decision making.
•
The results that you have seen this morning should be scrutinized and the
implications understood fully by all stakeholders. Within each segment there are
winners as well as titles where there is room for improvement.
•
Decisions and negotiations going forward should be based on such objective
performance results.
•
Press:
-
Daily Newspaper performance remains promising as results show consistency
with Q4 2013. It is interesting to point out that inland circulations dropped
unexpectedly. However Daily Dispatch jumped 18% and Isolezwe was up 11%
on Q4 2013.
-
Weeklies, The slide continues down a further 2.5% on 2013 Q4.
-
Weekend titles dropped only 1.8% albeit Afrikaans titles faired worse than their
English or vernacular counterparts.
-
The Local and free newspapers category grew over the period with strong
growth in particular from the Review Midweek.
Magazines:
-
The overall performance of the magazine category suggest stability. This
is not true. There were more closures than new entrants. This combination
obscures the results.
-
Specific highlights include:
-
The travel category jumped 19 000 copies since Q4 2013.
-
Discontinued titles in the Woman’s General category resulted in the
category reflecting a decline.
-
In the Business 2 Business segment, the circulation declined marginally.
That said, Business Brief jumped 62% year on year which is a remarkable
performance given its target market.
-
Custom magazines continue to grow, up 204 000 copies compared to Q4
2013. Growth was as expected industry specific. Taxi Talk jumped 394%,
while retail titles remained fairly static.
-
Free magazines declined 10% on 2013 Q4
In summary newspapers continue to perform relatively better than magazines,
which given the prophets of a digital apocalypse seems counter intuitive. What
remains clear is that relevant content remains king…irrespective of the channel.
Thank you.
Your ABC
- Transparency you can see -