Type of Review: Annual Review Project Title: Rural Access Programme Phase 2 Date started: October 2008 Date review undertaken: July 2012 Instructions to help complete this template: Before commencing the annual review you should have to hand: the Business Case or earlier project documentation. theLogframe the detailed guidance (How to Note)- Reviewing and Scoring Projects the most recent annual review (where appropriate) and other related monitoring reports key data from ARIES, including the risk rating the separate project scoring calculation sheet (pending access to ARIES) You should assess and rate the individual outputs using the following rating scale and description. ARIES and the separate project scoring calculation sheet will calculate the overall output score taking account of the weightings and individual outputs scores: Description Outputs substantially exceeded expectation Outputs moderately exceeded expectation Outputs met expectation Outputs moderately did not meet expectation Outputs substantially did not meet expectation Scale A++ A+ A B C 1 ABBREVIATIONS ADB AMS ARMP CIM DDC DDF DFID DoLIDAR DRRILP DTMP DTO ERDRR FMS FRA GIZ GoN LEP LRN LRUC MOF MoFALD MoU NPC RAP RBG RTI SEDC SED SDC SRN TI-UP SWAp VDC WB Asian Development Bank Asset Management System Annual Road Maintenance Plan Continuous improvement Matrix District Development Committee District Development Fund Department for International Development Department of Local Infrastructure Development and Agricultural Roads Decentralised Road Rural infrastructure and Livelihoods Project District Transport Master Plan District Technical Office Earthquake Recovery and Disaster Risk Reduction Financial Management System Fiduciary Risk Assessment German International Cooperation Government of Nepal Labour-based, Environment-friendly, Participatory Local Road Network Local Road Users Committee Ministry of Finance Ministry of Federal Affairs and Local Development Memorandum of Understanding National Planning Commission Ruralo Access Programme Road Building Group Rural Transport Infrastructure Safe and Effective Development in Conflict Social and Economic Development Swiss Development Cooperation Strategic Road Network Transport Infrastructure and Urban Planning Sector Wide Approach Village Development Committee World Bank 2 Introduction and Context What support is the UK providing? The Rural Access Programme (RAP) was designed with the purpose of alleviating poverty in mid-hill districts of Nepal by constructing 1,000 kilometres of rural roads to connect isolated villages and towns to district headquarters. Phase 1 of RAP (RAP 1) was commenced in 2002 and completed in 2008, which was followed immediately by Phase 2 (RAP2) which is due for completion in 2013. With the overarching objective of poverty reduction, RAP2 was designed to directly target the poorest of the poor, women and other most disadvantaged groups of people in seven remote districts of Nepal. Firstly, it aimed to provide them with additional off-farm wage incomes from road construction works and enhance micro savings. Skills training and micro-irrigation infrastructure were also the integral part of the programme to meet the long term objective of improving the livelihood of the poorest households. Poor farmers who worked on the roads now have cash incomes, which they have invested in on-farm assets to grow and sell cash crops to new markets as far away as India. DFID’s total allocation for RAP Phase 2 is £36.7 million for infrastructure works, technical assistance, independent evaluation and research. It is providing grant to implement road construction works through Road Building Groups (RBG), of which just over 70% is distributed as daily wages to the targeted poorest and excluded people. The allocation also include two number of 120m single-span river bridges for connecting 3 remote eastern districts, and an institutional and capacity enhancement component, RTI Pilot Maintenance, that aims to preserve the road assets on the Local Road Network (LRN) and to establish a road maintenance capacity in the Government of Nepal (GoN) for the LRN. The Earthquake Recovery and Disaster Risk Reduction (ERDRR) component was added in March 2012 in response to the September 2011 Sikkim earthquake of a magnitude of 6.9 in moment magnitude scale; which affected eastern districts of Nepal severely. DFID has committed a total of £800,000 grant aid to reconstruct and retrofit 50 school buildings to current earthquake standards in the 4 RAP2 eastern districts, and implement a capacity enhancement and a disaster risk reduction awareness programme in those districts in partnership with the District Development Committees (DDCs) and the District Education Departments. What are the expected results? RAP2’s outputs and activities can be found in the revised Logframe in Annex 1. The expected results from RAP2 are grouped under the 3 themes; a) Physical rural infrastructure Of the 12 road corridors under the RAP2 programme, 8 road corridors are completed at the time of this review. All 12 road corridors, with a total length of 365kms will be completed before the project completion in March 2013. RAP2 will establish a well equipped Road Maintenance User’s Committee, one for each of the 12 corridors, who will have the capability and the responsibility to lobby for funds and undertake GON financed road maintenance intervention on these corridors. A total of 175 supplementary infrastructure (water supply, trails and foot bridges, health 3 and education facilities, markets etc.) sub-projects, 154 projects have be completed and a community managed maintenance capacity established for the above at the time of this review. To motivate the GoN institution to maintain key road corridors, a sliding scale programme funding (70%, 30% and 0% in years 1, 2 and 3) was allocated to maintain 370kms of district roads constructed in the first phase of RAP (RAP1). This component was completed in December 2010.. In addition, DFID is providing a maintenance seed fund of £500,000 to 7 RTI pilot districts to complement the GON funded initiative to trial a sector wide approach for maintaining the local road network. Two major bridges, each of 120m single span, on the Arun and SabhaKhola rivers along the RAP1 corridors will link the 3 RAP districts in eastern Nepal to the strategic road network and lucrative markets in India. The linked roads are now being upgraded as part of the mid-hill highway under a GoN/Department of Roads programme. b) Enhancing livelihood potential Social and economic development of road building groups (RBGs) is an integral part of the RAP2 programme. The expected primary RAP2 outputs are listed below: Local, off-season employment for the socially excluded and rural poor, of which 40% are women. This will create 6 million employment days with over £15 million distributed directly as wages to the poor people engaged in road and supplementary infrastructure construction. Social and economic empowerment of women through increased participation, from one third at the beginning of RAP2 to over 40% in road construction, income generation and savings and credit schemes and membership of key posts in decision making committees. Increased household income of RBG and non-RBG households through better use of existing and new land assets, crop diversification and the use of modern farming methods. Easier access to credit through the RBG-operated savings schemes (with working capital of over £900,000) resulting in the poorest settling their long-standing debts to the informal money lenders and an average halving of the informal money lending rates (at average 40% interest rate) c) Improved governance and institutional capacity to manage the rural infrastructure sector The RAP programme works in partnership with MoFALD and the district development committees (DDC). Through this long-term engagement, RAP continues to influence rural infrastructure development policy. With the addition of the RTI maintenance component, it will further contribute to outcomes in the following areas: Promotion of labour-based, environmentally sensitive and participatory approach to rural infrastructure development and maintenance Establish a maintenance culture in the rural roads sector by supporting a Pilot Maintenance programme for the sector. This will support efforts by District Development Committees (DDCs) to ensure maintenance of rural roads. Combine infrastructure construction with institutional and staff capacity building linked to harmonisation of donor support within the sector. Develop local government capacity and benchmark district performance by means of continual improvement audits. It is expected that this will lead to improved and sustained connectivity of rural communities, enhanced economic and employment opportunities, and increased access to market and social services for the rural poor and disadvantaged. 4 d) Earthquake reconstruction and disaster risk reduction 35 school buildings will be reconstructed and 15 damaged schools retrofitted against future earthquake events Capacity and skills created in the DDCs, DED and skilled artisans to design and construct all future buildings using the earthquake design code A focussed disaster risk reduction and awareness programme implemented in the 4 target districts. What is the context in which UK support is provided? Nepal is still emerging from a period of internal conflict that has disrupted development, dislocated local government and depressed growth. The effects have been particularly severe in rural areas, where the majority of the poor live. The signing of a peace agreement, in November 2006, presented both opportunities and challenges that are still relevant today. The opportunities are to re-establish momentum in the development of the country and to restore economic growth. The challenge is to deliver this “peace dividend” in a context of political instability and weak governance. Despite these problems, Nepal has made progress in combating poverty and improving its standard of living. During the lifetime of the Rural Access Programme per capita income and consumption have increased for all sections of the population. However, the benefits of development have been unevenly spread. Poverty in Nepal is closely correlated with poor physical access. The most physically isolated people, and particularly disadvantaged women, ethnic groups and castes are in danger of being left behind. Political and administrative reforms have been inadequate to improve service delivery, transparency, accountability and inclusiveness. Nepal is not only the poorest nation in South Asia, but also the country with the highest inequality. Lack of access and social exclusion that drive this inequality are the core problems addressed by the Rural Access Programme (RAP1 and RAP2). The first phase of RAP was designed and implemented from 2000 to 2008 and involved the construction of 638 km of rural roads in seven hill districts. It has successfully developed an approach to rural road construction that targets the poorest and most disadvantaged groups of the local community. By providing employment training, skills development and supporting the establishment of saving schemes, it has provided these groups with access to new economic opportunities from which they would otherwise be excluded. The second phase of RAP, called RAP2, is an extension of RAP1 to meet the commitments made at the beginning of the design of the programme, and which were affected by the Maoist insurgency during 2002 to 2006. RAP was designed at a time when multilateral donor agencies, such as the ADB and World Bank, who working in the rural roads sector, were focussed on conventional road building programmes. Since then these agencies have incorporated RAP features (such as road maintenance and livelihood components) in their projects in Nepal. DFID continues to be the leading innovator in the sector and has now turned its attention to the issue of road maintenance. Interest from other donors seems to be leading to fresh approaches to the design of new projects such as the ADB’s Decentralised Rural Infrastructure and Livelihood Project Phase 2 (DRILPII), with which RAP2 is working. 5 The objective of the Rural Access Programme Phase II (RAP2) is to construct 365 Km roads, two major bridges and other rural infrastructure (RI) to improve the access of poor people to the goods, markets and services, and to establish a maintenance capacity initially in 7 pilot DDCs but with intent to develop a roll out strategy for the entire rural road network.RAP2 unlocks this potential in 7 remote hill districts, transforming the local economy by providing access to markets and government services for the first time. RAP2 delivers these benefits through labour intensive works programmes that provide employment of the poorest and most vulnerable. This provides a cash, ‘peace dividend’ benefit and tangible evidence that local government can respond to local demands. The ERDRR component was added to assist communities in RAP2 districts with the reconstruction and retrofit of school building destroyed in the September 2011 Sikkim earthquake. This is an emergency response component implemented using existing RAP2 modalities and field resources. Because of the very recent start of ERDRR component, no output assessment is made for this Annual Review. Section A: Detailed Output Scoring Output 1: Enhanced equity, employment and income opportunities for the poor and disadvantaged Output 1 score and performance description: A+ Progress against expected results: A total of 10 impact indicators under Output 1 are specified in the revised Logframe; Of which 5 indicators (1,4,5,7,8) related to selection of the poorest people for RBGs, equitable representation of marginalised in the LRUC/ LRCC, timely wage payments, full coverage for occupational insurance, and the payment of equal wages for equal work to men and women RBG members are integrated into the RAP approach and their compliance verified at mass public meetings and audits, thus maintaining a 100% progress against target at all times (hence not included in the overall scoring) Indicators 3,9 and 10 are related to representation of women in RBGs (43% achieved against 33% target), inputs on demand-driven training (over 14,500 achieved against 9,000 target) and the frequency of annual public audit ( 6 monthly audits against annual target) all substantially exceed expected targets Indicators 2 related to increase in incomes and assets of target groups 2 years after completion of RAP1 road corridors has registered a tripling of household income (NRs 33,500 to 106,600) during the construction phase and going by findings of RAP1 impact study this indicator is expect to show a significant increase in income and asset holding two years after the completion of roads in 2015. Indicator 6 linked to the number of employment days created has exceeded the target of 6.5 million working days (recorded 6.7 million days to June 2012) Recommendations: 6 Complete to target as planned Impact Weighting (%): 20 Revised since last Annual Review? N Risk: Medium Revised since last Annual Review? N Output 2: District and village level roads built to DoLIDAR standard and put under sustainable maintenance. Output 2 score and performance description: A Progress against expected results: Of the 12 road corridors with total length of 365 kms committed in RAP2, 8 road corridors have attained 100% completion while the remaining 4 corridors have recorded 85% completion and will be completed before March 2013. Work on the last 4 kms section of DM2 road (60% completion status in May) in Dailekh was stopped in May due to funding constraints. As per programme memorandum RAP2 roads are designed to existing MoFALD standards and the Environmental Management Plan (EMP) for each road is included in the Initial Environmental Examination (IEE) report for MoFALD approval. At the construction phase, RAP operational procedures ensure compliance to the EMP. This is supported by periodic field audit by RAP2 environmental specialist. With over 35% of the RAP1 road being upgraded as part of mid-hill highway and with most of the remaining RAP1 and RAP2 roads radiating out of district headquarters, there is a higher priority on DCCs to keep these roads operational. In addition, as part of RAP2 exit strategy; the programme is establishing a well equipped Road Maintenance Users Committees for each RAP road corridor. This along with the focussed RTI Pilot TA support to DDCs will further reduce maintenance risks once a network-wide asset management system is operational. Recommendations: The partially completed last 4kms of DM2 in Dailekh will require NRs 24 million (£175,000) to complete. Current budget does not permit any further spend on this section. Impact Weighting (%): 20 Revised since last Annual Review? N Risk: Medium Revised since last Annual Review? N 7 Output 3:Community-based supplementary rural infrastructure developed and improved Output 3 score and performance description: B Progress against expected results: Out of 175 subprojects selected as part of RAP2 supplementary infrastructure ( 65% related to water supply and sanitation and irrigation infrastructure) portfolio, 158 are completed, 2 subprojects cancelled and a process to recover 30% advance payments on 3 sub-projects has been initiated. Based on RAP2 needs survey on productive agri-pockets, additional microirrigation subprojects were selected after a detailed survey by RAP2 field staff and the NGO to establish their technical and economic viability and to confirm commitment of users committee to the sub-project. The uncommitted funds of NRs 4.0 million (£30,000) under this component were used to support RAP2 selected micro-irrigation schemes. Here the progress has been very encouraging, with 11 of the 12 sub-projects selected operational within 6 months and the last major co-funded irrigation scheme managed by Helvetas- LILI, expected to complete December 2012. Recommendations: On hindsight, there were risks in the DDC led process of sub-project selection given the poor governance climate in the districts. Politically influenced selection of some of the sub-projects led to poor ownership by user’s committees. In future, the process of consultation, study and selection must be strongly monitored by the programme but with active participation of the user’s committee and DDC staff. Focus should be on developing or upgrading infrastructure directly related to enhancing income generation capacity of the target groups. If the funding is channelled through the DDC, then programme TA staff must be embedded within the DDC along similar lines to that in the on-going RTI Pilot maintenance. Impact Weighting (%): 10% Revised since last Annual Review? N Risk: Medium Revised since last Annual Review? N Output 4: Strengthened institutional capacity of MoFALD, DoLIDAR, DDC, VDC and communities. Output 4 score and performance description: B Progress against expected results: Of the 3 output indicators in the RAP2 Logframe, significant proportion of outcomes related to capacity strengthening of GoN institutions and the take-up on RTI maintenance outputs by these institutions (indicators 1 and 3) are now included in output 7. 8 43% progress was recorded for indicator 1 at the last annual review. Additional training initiatives undertaken by the RTI Pilot component (Output 7) to establish a maintenance capacity in DoLIDAR and the 7 Pilot DDC has exceeded the specified target milestone. Indicator 2 relates to the level of community participation and their inputs in implementing the supplementary infrastructure programme of works. RAP approach and the tripartite agreement with the individual users committees of the 175 sub-projects ensured 100% attainment of expected results in the last annual review. The possible failure of 3 subprojects is more than compensated by the additional 12 micro-irrigation schemes initiated by the programme, 11 of which are completed within 6 months and the remaining one project will be complete by Dec 2012. Indicator 3 concerning the DoLIDAR/ MoFALD approval and ownership of RTI Maintenance Pilot’s outputs has exceeded initial expectations and the success of this output has led to DFID committing £0.5 million of RAP2 Works budget to support the first year annual maintenance cycle in the 7 pilot districts using standards and systems developed under the RTI Pilot maintenance TA programme. Recommendations: Qualitative evaluation of the institutional capacity needs to be included along with the milestone achievements. This also refers to the mitigation of impacts due to transfer of more competent personnel in the districts. None Impact Weighting (%): 5 Revised since last Annual Review? N Risk: Medium Revised since last Annual Review? N Output 5: GoN policies and plans are informed by programme and provide for effective rural access (this output is expanded into a new output 7) Output 5 score and performance description: A Progress against expected results: Until the start of RTI maintenance pilot component, lessons from RAP2 and other on-going programmes in the LRN were only shared at the respective Programme Steering Committee meetings and through regular progress reporting to GoN and donor agency. The government lacked a standing committee to translate the knowledge acquired this into wider RTI policies. A dedicated standards and policy committee is now in place and lessons from RAP are now being incorporated into updated standards and systems being developed under the RTI Pilot. The planning and implementation guidelines for the annual network maintenance cycle are in place and are being tested by implementing the annual maintenance plan of the 7 pilot districts. Lessons from the first implementation cycle will help fine tune the systems and procedures before being established as process and standards at the central (in DoLIDAR) and local (DDC) levels. Under the RTI Pilot, harmonisation of standards has reached an advanced stage and significant progress has been made in gaining donor partner consensus on a harmonised support framework for the local road sector. The specified indicators in the Logframe have largely been met, however, the effectiveness of policies on the network will only be realised 9 once RTI Pilot’s outputs are incorporated into the next phase of RAP due to commence in 2013. Recommendations: RTI Pilot TA has made significant progress in developing harmonised standards and is presently assisting the 7 pilot districts to implement its Annual maintenance plan on evidencebased prioritisation criteria. In order to ensure the momentum of change and incorporate the lessons into the next generation of programmes coming on stream in 2013, it is important to continue this support beyond March 2013. Impact Weighting (%):10 Revised since last Annual Review? N Risk: Medium Revised since last Annual Review? N Output 6: Sankhuwasabha, Bhojpur and Khotang districts connected with the national transport networks Output 6 score and performance description: B Progress against expected results: Completion of Sabha Khola will be as per the programme but the completion of Arun bridge by March 2013 will much depend on the progress made on the foundation works during the 3 month wet season. If current progress rate can be maintained over the monsoon season, the foundation works may be completed by Sept 2012 and if so, this may allow Arun to be completed before contract end date. Milestones for the existing two indicators are related to the volume of vehicular traffic recorded one year after the completion of the Arun and Sabha Khola bridges in March 2013. Since the design conception stage, both the roads being serviced by the above bridges have been upgraded to DOR district feeder road standards and as such additional generated traffic along with the normal traffic flow is expected to exceed the original prediction of 100 vehicles per day. Recommendations: The MOU agreed between DFID and DoR for the management and supervision of the Bridges Defect Liability Period needs to be executed as soon as the bridges construction completion date is agreed. IMC to facilitate all arrangements in a timely manner. Impact Weighting (%): 15 Revised since last Annual Review? N Risk: Medium Revised since last Annual Review? N 10 Output 7: Rural transport infrastructure maintenance culture piloted and established. Output 7 score and performance description: A Progress against expected results: The output indicators in the LogFrame used in the last Annual review, have been changed to better reflect progress achieved against the Continuous Improvement Matrix (CIM) primary indicators; RTI asset management systems(AMS) operational and district implementation capacity enhanced, DoLIDAR level support systems for AMS in place, and Joint donor funding and monitoring of RTI AMS achieved. For indicator 1 - Asset management system (AMS) and the complimenting inventory and condition survey data provides the basis for evidence based network prioritisation and the first annual cycle of network maintenance, using the established AMS criteria are on-going and have reached on average 80% completion status in 7 pilot districts. Overall progress on this indicator is 60% against a target of 50% For indicator 2 – DOLIDAR based AMS support plan are at an advanced stage; DoLIDAR and DDC level training needs identified and training programme on-going; GoN establishes a technical support unit in DoLIDAR; and Financial Monitoring Syatem (FMS) to monitor GoN SWAp budget in place and being used to monitor GoN and Roads Board Nepal allocation to 7 pilot districts. Overall progress achieved is at 60%. against a target of 60% For indicator 3 – Fiduciary Risk Assessment (FRA) to channel DFID funds to the District Development Fund in 7 pilot districts sets the benchmark for future joint donor funding and DFID-N commit 500,000 UKP to support GoN led SWAp initiative for the 1st year maintenance programme; other on-going donor programmes adopts RTI pilot's systems for funding and implementing maintenance as a DoLIDAR standard; procedures for joint funding and monitoring of RTI asset management accepted in principle by other donor partners for use in the development of the next generation projects. Overall progress achieved is at 25% against a target of 25% Recommendations: As DFID and other major donors in the sector are planning to move towards the output based funding mechanism, RTI TA has already started P4R capacity building initiatives to support the implementation of next years annual maintenance programme. The momentum in this component needs to be increased by continuing the technical assistance to MoFALD and DoLIDAR beyond March 2013. Impact Weighting (%):20 Revised since last Annual Review? N Risk: Medium Revised since last Annual Review? N 11 Section B: Results and Value for Money. 1. Progress and results 1.1 Has the logframe been updated since last review? Yes Output 7 related indicators under the RTI Pilot maintenance component have been re-defined to better align the component’s outcomes against a progressive Continuous Improvement Matrix (CIM) for the two primary GoN institutions and towards the goal of harmonised funding and monitoring of RTI asset management. This change suggests that the RTI Pilot’s approach is process-oriented and thus the outcome is progressive in nature and variable depending on the baseline capacities of GoN institutions. In addition, a year column has been added to the milestones to record progress from August 2011 to March 2013. The RAP2 programme period was extended by 20 months to enable completion of the more difficult rocky sections of RAP roads, complete the Arun river bridge and give more time for RTI maintenance pilot to effect change towards a harmonised support framework for the local road sector. 1.2 Overall Output Score and Description: A- Overall outputs have met expectations. 1.3 Direct feedback from beneficiaries The feedback from primary beneficiaries – the local communities and road users, is very positive, with all RBGs and most of the wider community in support of RAP approach for its transparency, participatory and inclusive process, integrated social and economic development (SED) programme and a significant boost to local economic activity from direct income through employment in infrastructure works and income generation schemes to improve the livelihoods of the poorest. Narratives of poorest and women during field visits confirmed the importance of integrating social development, micro-entrepreneurship and infrastructure components in improving their livelihoods. As expected, there is a very positive feedback on improved transport accessibility but this has also raised expectation within local communities for maintenance and upgrading of the constructed roads. As a result of direct involvement in building the road, the people living along the road corridor (mostly RBG members) appeared to have a far greater sense of ownership than that observed on roads which do not entail significant local engagement. Feedback from GoN institutions is positive in terms of RAP’s capability to mobilise local community and deliver an asset of relatively high specification but not equally positive on direct funding of RAP Works programme. This is despite the poor record of RAP2 DDCs in implementing a relatively small maintenance and supplementary infrastructure components. 12 1.4 Summary of overall progress Among seven programme outputs, one has exceeded expectations, three have met expectation and three moderately didn’t meet expectations. The overall progress is A. On the physical components, RAP2 road corridors needed additional time (beyond the original July 2012) to complete construction, primarily because of adverse working conditions, a significant increase in rock cutting activity and additional retaining and drainage structures to provide for increased frequency and volumes of water flow due to climate change effects. The DDC managed supplementary infrastructure component is largely completed except for 3 sub-projects, which may have to be curtailed. RAP2 management action in using the balance fund on programme-managed micro-irrigation sub-projects has had a direct benefit on target RBG households and has provided an entry-point for field level collaboration with donor / INGO programmes in the irrigation and skills development sector. The original two year Bridge component programme proved to unrealistic and even with no major disturbances it would have been difficult to complete such complex structures within 2 years. However, with Sabhakhola nearing completion in two months and Arun’s foundation at 60% completion status, the overall progress is satisfactory. A 2-3 month delay on Arun river bridge is partly due to delay in Contractor’s design and in part due to disruption to supply of fuel and materials from ferry closures and frequent bandhs. If the rains do not stop works on Arun, there is a good chance for it to be substantially completed by March 2013, following which the DoR has agreed to provide Employer’s oversight over the one-year defects liability period. RTI maintenance pilot has made significant progress on all fronts and with the support of its field staffs in the 7 pilot DDCs have successfully implemented the Annual Maintenance Programme using RTI Pilot’s asset management system. RTI Pilot TA is actively supporting DoLIDAR with its capacity building programme and has established harmonised standards for development of DTMPs and ARMPs which are being used by other programmes in the LRN sector. This component has also made positive gains in developing a harmonised donor support framework to support the GoN initiated SWAp for the LRN. Given only 1 months since the start of construction, ERDRR has recorded good progress on school structures in 2 of the 4 districts. Capacity building and DRR awareness raising programmes are scheduled to take place in August 2012. 1.5Key challenges a) Poverty reduction impacts vs. infrastructure goals: RAP approach is poverty focussed and thus places a high premium on job creation, empowerment of women and marginalised communities and sustainability of the road asset and the livelihood of roadside communities. The GoN staff performance is reflected in terms of annual road kilometres added to the network and therefore the key challenge will be to manage the expectation of GoN officials but at the same time deliver the non-physical and qualitative social outcomes common to RAP approach. b) Mechanisation of rural road building: A progressive and selective introduction of machines is a technical challenge for future RAP and given the difficult access and the uncontrolled use of conventional machines by ‘cowboy’ plant operators/ owners, the challenge will be to adapt locally available farm equipments for earthworks, upgrading roads and emergency 13 maintenance. c) Road asset management: Difficult access to fair-weather roads, especially immediately after the annual monsoons, makes it unfeasible to use conventional maintenance techniques. The challenge here is to localise the skills through programmes such as RAP, and then harness these for preserving the road asset using GoN and pay-as-use funds. This will have significant positive impact on the durability and sustainability of the road asset since the intervention response times can be couple of hours rather than months as is the case now. d) Institutional challenges: Key institutional challenges are of medium-term horizon but any institutional building approach will need to account for political and governance constraints and devise a strategy that is both capable of adapting to changing socio-political climate and providing an enabling environment of potential change agents to bring about progressive changes at the operational and policy level. 1.6 Annual Outcome Assessment The stated programme outcome is “increased access to market and social services for the rural poor and disadvantaged”. Currently the programme is on track with this outcome based on impact assessment outcome of RAP1 roads, however, this will be confirmed by a postcompletion impact study for RAP2 road corridors Sustainability will be achieved provided the roads are maintained to an agreed level of service. This assumes an adequate funding and skills capacity within the local DDCs to undertake appropriate and prioritised interventions to preserve the network. RTI Pilot’s assessment shows an unbridgeable gap in DDC’s ability to maintain the entire district network and thus its strategy for DDCs to define and maintain a limited length of core network could be made to work in the medium term provided GoN and joint donor commitment remain high. Beside the pure physical accessibility, the poor and disadvantages face significant social barriers to unfettered access to market and social services. Other programmes and INGOs active in the fields of social justice need to extend their programmes to areas that now have improved physical access. 2. Costs and timescale 2.1 Is the project on-track against financial forecasts: Y Overall, the programme is on target to deliver the physical outputs to budget and on time except for the time delay on the Bridge component. Costs incurred to date against financial forecast for the RAP roads component are within the reasonable margins of forecast for civil works. This has been the key strength of the programme management. However, the spend to date on Bridges component shows a 20% lag against this year’s forecast spend plan. This is mainly due to a delay in site investigations and foundation designs in the Arun Bridge that eventually delayed the construction of its foundations. Some delay is attributed to supply and transport of building materials (e.g. steel truss elements, cement, reinforcement bars etc. ) due to frequent political strikes. The material delivery at the construction site was further aggravated due to long closure of ferry operation 14 over the Arun River. Bridges are complex structures to build in the remote part of the country, which required highly efficient construction planning from the contractor and effective monitoring from the consultant. Overall, the programme is on target to deliver the physical outputs to budget and on time provided time delay on Arun can be made up over the current monsoon season 2.2 Key cost drivers The key cost drivers are: Significant increase in volumes of medium and hard rock cut because of the relatively hilly and rocky terrain of RAP2 corridors as compared to RAP1 Increase in tools and materials cost, district labour rates, in some cases significantly higher than the prevailing inflation rate Monsoon damage (mainly landslides and incidental damage to completed works) costs underestimated in the original estimates More substantial cross drainage structures and river causeways due to increased frequency and fluctuation in flow levels caused due climate change effects. A 40% premium in Work item rates for activities on sections of road at altitudes higher than 3000 meters on DM2 in Dailekh. 2.3 Is the project on-track against original timescale: N The original contract end date was July 2011. The new end date for RAP 2 is March 2013. RTI SWAp Maintenance Pilot component was added in March 2011 to establish a road maintenance capacity of the relevant Government of Nepal (GoN) institutions. A cost and time extension to March 2013 was approved in Sept 2011 to implement additional work requirement (within the original RAP 2 scope of work) to make the roads more climate resilient due to significant monsoon rain damages; work on harder sections of the road corridors; additional requirements for bridges. Earthquake Recovery and Disaster Risk Reduction (ERDRR) component was also agreed under a framework arrangement as an emergency response to the Sept 2011 earthquake damages to school buildings in the RAP eastern districts. The programme is on-track against the revised completion target of March 2013. 3. Evidence and Evaluation 3.1 Assess any changes in evidence and implications for the project There is no emerging evidence that challenges the programme rationale. The impact assessment of the previous phase (RAP 1) completed in 2008 confirmed encouraging achievements: i.e. improved livelihoods of the poorest people engaged in construction and in the social/economic development schemes, reduction of gender inequity due to high level of women participation in the construction works, increase in school enrolment as well as significant decrease in transportation cost along the road corridors etc. The original assumption that the DDCs would be in a position to maintain the road network has not been realised. As a result RTI Maintenance pilot was added to address this shortcoming. This component’s outcomes, i.e. establishing road maintenance culture and 15 development of government’s institutional capacity to manage LRN assets, are showing signs of progress but it’s too early to assess it in this review. This implies the need of continued and innovative support for the pilot in the future. 3.2 Where an evaluation is planned what progress has been made? A project completion report will be prepared next year for RAP2. DFID-Nepal, in collaboration with the DFID-South Asia Research Hub, is conducting two research works: Koshi Hill Studyan impact study of overall development investment in the eastern region and a study on poverty in Mid and Far West region. The RAP 2 completion report, the DFID-SARH studies, recently completed DFID/WB/ADB/SDC Road Sector Assessment Study for Nepal and RAP2 independent evaluation will together form a valuable knowledge base for not only for the next phase of RAP but also for the entire rural road sector in Nepal. 4. Risk 4.1 Output Risk Rating: Medium Risk level is medium because of operational level constraints and material supply chain constraints in the bridge component from the prevailing uncertain political climate. As part of programme management function the operational level risks are continually assessed by the RAP2 district teams. The RAP2 management in discussion with the district teams agree mitigating measures to deal with emerging operational risks. In general, the operational level risks, with support from the DFID/GIZ Risk Management Office, have been effectively managed and has had little impact on the programme implementation plan. The weak local governance and frequent change of DDC management staff have made if difficult to manage the risks associated with local institutions’ capacity to deliver programme outputs and hence risk rating is maintained at the same level as the last annual review. 4.2 Assessment of the risk level DFID-N has been monitoring the service provider very closely on timely assessment and mitigation of risks that affect the management and results of the programme. The key operational level risk is related to the safe and effective distribution of construction wages to the RBG/SBG engaged in the Works programme. Given the prevalent conditions, the track record to-date has been exceptional with only 0.002% of the total RBG/SBG wage disbursement of £15 million lost through theft or hold-ups. Given the increase in conflict between political groupings in the districts, risk mitigation options are explored with the DFID/GIZ RMO to further minimise the risks associated with wage distribution. Recently, an increase in the fatal accidents in road construction sites has emerged as a serious issue. In part, this is due to remaining works being confined to difficult and more risky work sites but disregard for safety by RBG’s and the supervision consultants’ staff is another factor contributing to this risk. The programme management team has initiated field level safety orientation training and have issued additional safety signs along with safety checklist to help manage this risk. 16 4.3 Risk of funds not being used as intended The risk in this regard is low since the TA management consultants are made responsible for using the funds in accordance to an agreed plan, closely monitored by DFID-N. Also, since all payments are made on pre-finance basis DFID-N has an opportunity to review the spend on a monthly basis and assure that the spend is conformance to an agreed spend plan. Where cases of fraud, theft or loss of funds in hold-ups is reported, the RAP district team leader has acted as per agreed response plan and has ensured the district administration and the police are on the case within hours of incident coming to light. Once investigations are complete, RAP management has facilitated the process of recovery of funds through the court orders. However the full recovery has not been possible. The RAP management has been reporting to DFID on the progress on trimester basis. 4.4Climate and Environment Risk All RAP 2 roads are earthen fair-weather and low-trafficked roads. The roads are designed to minimise the negative environmental impacts through the adoption of ‘green roads’ principle. To make the road carbon neutral, the programme has increased the scope for tree planting activity in forested areas and along the down slopes to provide a natural safety barrier against vehicular roll-off. To account for climate change effects, the original drainage designs have been upgraded to carry larger volumes of run-off and stream flow. In addition, introduction of cultivating cash crops and off-season vegetables under poly houses, water harvesting and drip-fed irrigation system, production and use of bio-insecticides has helped local people better adapt with climate change impacts through the programme Income Generating Activity initiatives than before. The bridges component has changed the DoR multi-span bridge designs to a single 120m span design and provided additional free-board to accommodate potential flash flood events for both the Arun and Sabakhola Bridges. 5. Value for Money 5.1 Performance on VfM measures Economy: With the additional scope of Works on RAP2 roads component the share of TA costs in comparison total costs have reduced and that of money disbursed as construction wages to the poorest and disadvantaged people has increased marginally (from 56% to 58%). Similarly, for the bridges component, the share of TA costs in comparison to total costs for component has reduced from 22% to 17% on signing the contract amended no.3. This ensures that RAP 2 provides high level of effectiveness in achieving its poverty alleviation objectives. At the same time, the climate and disaster resilient design changes also make the programme more sustainable, further increasing the value for money in longer term. Efficiency: The average cost of earthworks using labour methods is some 60% higher than using equipment. RAP roads average about NRS 7 million per kilometre to construct while equipment based roads average about Nrs 4.6 million per kilometre for the similar road stretches. This means that in terms of input productivity the RAP approach is less efficient than a mechanised approach. However, it is government practice to promote a labour based approach to the construction of rural roads and the construction cost of RAP are comparable 17 with other labour based projects supported by the ADB, the World Bank and SDC. Risk analysis and related mitigation measures are other areas where efficiency gains can result in value for money. The risk analysis of the roads is both comprehensive and well grounded, covers the main threats and is linked to the planning and monitoring processes to ensure that timely risk mitigation measures are taken. Effectiveness: RAP uses labour-based methods to promote income generation and inclusive growth. Its road building approach is environmentally friendly and takes three building seasons to complete. As a result, the RAP approach allows sufficient time and generates sufficient additional income to have a significant impact on poverty for those people living within the socalled sphere of influence of the road corridors. This represents a total of some 175,000 people along the 365 Km of RAP2 roads, from which workers from some 12,000 families are employed in off-farm seasonal work in Road Building Groups. 5.2 Commercial Improvement and Value for Money For the TA, DFID was able to secure a static international fee rates for a period of five years (2008-2013). However, in view of the local inflation rate of around 10% per year, the local fee rates for RAP2 roads component have been increased by an annual average 7% over the last two years of the contract period. It should also be noted that the project will continue to provide a significant stimulus to the local consulting industry in terms of awarding corruption free, performance-based contracts which is helping to develop the local construction supervision and engineering markets. In addition, RAP2 will continue to provide assistance to Road Building Groups to evolve into small–scale contracting business in their own right thus enhancing local competition for delivery of road maintenance services. 5.3 Role of project partners RAP 2 is a directly implemented programme. Hence there was a limited level of engagement with the Government of Nepal at the operational level. However the RTI maintenance pilot component has increased significantly the level of engagement at the centre and in the pilot districts. This has allowed the RTI TA team to make rapid progress on the institutional development front, and motivate DDCs to trial the systems and standards developed for better management of the LRN. The RAP2 project steering committee has been established with MoFALD, MoF, NPC, Districts and DFID to manage project related issues and ensure good communication on implementation. The Ministry of Federal Affairs and Local Development (MoFALD) has also established a Joint Steering Committee for Rural Infrastructure with participation from key ministries and agencies and the donor partners for overall guidance in rural infrastructure sector. 5.4 Does the project still represent Value for Money : Y Based on the positive assessment of results and the reduced share of TA and works supervision costs in overall programme cost, the programme continues to demonstrate value for money. The addition of the ERDRR has further improved the value for money indicator since this component is implemented using existing RAP2 district support network thus crosssubsidising ERDRR’s TA costs. The institutional and policy level impact achieved on RTI maintenance pilot is acting as catalyst to motivate change in the GON institutions and the donor community. Outcomes here are informing the development of a sustainable model for the development and maintenance 18 of the local road network. A harmonised donor support framework to scale up the RTI pilot’s outcomes to the entire network could result in improving the level-of-service and the longevity of the road asset thus providing significant value for money for the road users and the GoN. 5.5 If not, what action will you take? No specific action required in this programme, however there are key lessons from RAP2 to be incorporated in the next phase of RAP (see Section 7, Conclusions and actions). 6. Conditionality RAP2 is a directly implemented programme hence no conditionality applies 7. Conclusions and actions Since late 2008, RAP2 has lifted 12,000 households out of poverty, generated over 6.7 million working days of short term employment over 40% of which is for women, provided 50,478 days of skill development trainings and provided fair weather road access to two hundred twenty thousand people living in remote villages of Nepal within four hours walk. During this review period RAP2 has maintained SED programme support (including 10,200 days of skill development and income generation training) to all target households and generated 2.1 million employment days of which 0.9 million days were women employment days. In the short duration since the start of ERDRR component, the component has completed the selection and signed tripartite agreement for the construction of 32-school buildings and retrofit of 20 schools. Progress in two districts (out of four) exceeds planned targets. The overall score of the programme is ‘A’ for this review period of RAP2. Among seven programme outputs, one has exceeded expectations, three have met expectation and three moderately didn’t meet expectations for this review. Physical roads outputs have largely been achieved except for a 4km section due to challenges posed by high altitude and shortfall of funds. Since the last review and after the start of RTI maintenance pilot there has been improvement in outputs related to enhancing institutional capacities and effecting policy level changes. RTI maintenance pilots and bridge component are expected to meet and even exceed the expectations by the end of the programme period, which will increase the programme scoring significantly. The Government of Nepal is facing significant resource gaps and capacity constraints to provide welfare and development needs of the poorest and marginalised in the hill districts of Nepal. This dire needs gap as well as highly successful DFID engagement in the rural infrastructure sector for a decade makes a strong case for investment into the next phase of RAP. 19 From the significant experience in RAP 1 and RAP 2, there following are recognized as key lessons for the design of the next phase : i) Labour-based, Environment-friendly, Participatory (LEP) approach is effective in reaching the poorest under current post-conflict conditions of Nepal. ii) Simple targeting is effective at reaching the poorest, 100% of RAP workers were living below the poverty line before they started work on RAP; iii) Direct targeting of Women is necessary to ensure they benefit disproportionately. iv) Savings groups, literacy training and income generation training schemes are all effective in giving workers access to increased economic opportunities. v) Market Development support needs to be extended to include traders and agricultural input suppliers if production is going to scale up significantly and sustainably. vi) Government Support for Maintenance is available if the systems and incentives are in place to support its allocation and implementation. vii) Climate change and disaster resilience can be integrated into RAP relatively easily, improving infrastructure and increasing the awareness of communities. viii) Third party anti-corruption measures that provide oversight at all levels of implementation do improve accountability, but do not replace the need for improved government and private sector led and owned anti-corruption measures. 8. Review Process This review has been conducted by DFID staff in consultation with the programme implementation consultant and government partners. Project scoring is based on the progress against the agreed output indicators summarized in the associated Logframe as well as the perceived risks associated with the outputs. 20