Cash Flow Module Calculates and distributes cash generated by firm Excess cash: When liabilities exceed assets Either increase assets Decrease liabilities Another way to balance the model Adjust left side of balance sheet Adjust right side of balance sheet (Cash, Marketable Securities) Pay dividend in excess of minimum Decrease retained earnings Link between income statement and balance sheet 1 Cash flow module Start with operating cash flow Adjust for all changes in balance sheet items NI + Depreciation Redundancy (fail safe) system Picks up changes in financing End result Cash Available for Dividends Sometimes will equal NI*payout Can be more (residual) Feeds to Dividends line in Income Statement 2 Representative Equations Cash flow sector, cont. C.1 Earnings Cash Flowt Net incomet Depreciation Expenset C.2 NWC Investmentt Other CA Investmentt Spontaneous Financingt C.3 Cash Flow from Operationst Earnings Cash Flowt NWC Investmentt C.4 Capital Expenditurest Fixed Asset Investmentt C.5 Capital Financingt Debtt Debtt 1 Common Stockt Common Stockt 1 C.6 Net Cash Inflowt Cash Flow from Operationst Capital Expenditurest Capital Financingt Cash C.7 Increase in Casht * Salest Casht 1 Sales C.8 Cash Available for Dividend t Net Cash Inflowt Increase in Casht 3 Cash must flow somewhere Not into a financial black hole Above equations direct specified amount to Cash Balance Residual directed to dividends Could have gone into Marketable Securities or used to retire debt The key Residual flow must be directed somewhere 4 A financial black hole Net Cash Inflow Addition to Cash Balance Dividend Excess Cash Flow 1000 300 (X% of Sales) 500 (Y% of Net Income) 200 The $200 must be directed somewhere Marketable securities (or cash) Larger Dividend Retire debt Repurchase stock 5 Equilibrium Two ways to achieve Equilibrate stock balances (adjust right side) Balance flow of funds (adjust left side) Financing Module Total Assetst = Total Liabilitiest Total Assetst = Total Liabilitiest-1 + New Financingt Cash Flow Module Total Uses of Fundst = Total Sourcest Net Change in Cash Balancet = Net Cash Inflowt Either or both methods can be used Use elements of both for checks 6 Model must be told how to balance Simulation model Can Cannot Determine how much new financing is necessary Make decisions User specifies plug Force equality between sources and uses of cash Adjust cash balance “Cash-balancing” model OR Force equality between assets and liabilities Adjust debt and common stock balances “Stock-balancing” model 7 Equilibrium Example: Stock balancing Investment module Calculates additional investment in fixed assets of $100 million Financing module $25 million to come from spontaneous and internal sources Left-hand side exceeds right-hand side of balance sheet Assets exceed liabilities and stockholders' equity by $75 million Difference: the amount necessary to balance Required External Financing The plug $75 million User determines the source Debt or equity Forces the model into balance 8 Equilibrium Example: Flow balancing Investment module Calculates additional investment in fixed assets of $100 million Financing module $125 million to come from spontaneous and internal sources Right-hand side exceeds left-hand side of balance sheet Difference: the amount necessary to balance Excess cash The plug $25 million User determines the allocation Increase cash or marketable securities Increase dividend Increases assets Decreases liabilities (retained earnings) Decrease debt Buyback shares Forces the model into balance 9 Perverse Effects Dividends: Problems Paying dividends without sufficient cash flow Paying negative dividend when firm experiences a loss Distributing excess cash 10 Perverse Effects Dividends: Solutions Calculate Minimum Dividend in Financing Module Assures dividend will be financed Prevent from going negative when NI < 0 Calculate Cash Available for Dividends in Cash Flow Sector Use =MAX(.) Includes external financing for minimum dividend Reference CAfD in income statement 11 Perverse Effects Dividends: Excel code Minimum Dividend (from Financing Module) MAX Net Incomet * Payout Ratio, 0 Income sector code for Dividends (redundant code) IF CAfDt NI t * Payout , MAX CAfDt , 0 , MAX NI t * Payout , 0 12 Four equilibrium checks Balance Sheet Total Assets less Total Liabilities and Shareholder Equity Have all the financing needs been met? Must equal 0 Cash Flow module Net Cash Flow less Increase in Cash less Dividends Is all free cash flow allocated? Must equal 0 Statement of Cash Flows Net increase in cash less uses of cash Else some cash is flowing into a financial black hole Does what’s left after all uses for cash equal net increase in cash? Must equal 0 Master check Sum of the three above Must equal 0 13