TODAY’S TOPIC The introduction on Developing the Japan - United Arab Emirates Relation beyond Oil “ The possibility of creating an FTA with Japan” Prepared by: Khadija Abdulrahman MY RESEARCH QUESTION What is the UAE doing to retain and reinforce the relations with Japan beyond oil? This is essential to countries such as my country UAE, whish depends heavily on Oil in its economy and still willing to keep its economy as stable even when oil is no longer available. MY ASSUMPTIONS As you all know that the United Arab Emirates is a rich country with Oil, with strong economic relations with Japan based on Oil. However: What will happen to such strong economic UAE-Japanese relations when: 1. UAE’S Oil runs out? Does that mean there will no longer be economic relations between UAE and Japan? 2. When Oil will not be as needed as it nowadays? For Example there is shale technology in addition to the new competitive sources of energy which are eco friendly like solar and wind and water and so on. Therefore in this research I will explore the possibilities and solutions to retain strong economic relations with Japan even without Oil. CONTENTS Introduction to the UAE UAE Trade Relations with Japan Introduction to the GCC Examples of GCC FTAs Findings from the GCC FTAs Findings and Conclusions from this study SIMILARITIES BETWEEN JAPAN & UAE 1. Both Countries are World Trade Organization (WTO) members, UAE joined in 1996. 2. Both Japan and the GCC including the UAE have chosen Singapore as the first FTA partner. 3. Both countries have forged a strong military and economic alliance with the United States. 4. Both the UAE and Japan have their Islands occupied by foreign powers, and seeking peaceful solution through negotiations and referral to the International court of Justice. o o Iran in the case of UAE. Russia in the case of Japan’s Northern territories. 5 BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO UAE The UAE is a federation of 7 Emirates which was formed in December 2nd 1971, after their independence from Britain. The UAE is 43 years old and its seven Emirates are: 1.Abu Dhabi (the Capital) 2.Dubai 3.Sharjah 4.Ajman 5.Umm Al Quwain 6.Fujairah 7.Ras Al Khaimah. United Arab Emirates (UAE) Location 7 UAE Location in the middle east 8 The location of the 7 Emirates 9 FIGURE 1: POSITION OF UAE/GCC The Arab League (22) GAFTA (17) GCC (6) UAE (7) BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO UAE Before the discovery of oil in early 1960s the UAE did not exist. The UAE, along with Qatar and Bahrain has been known as the trucial states because of the 19 century truce between the local Sheikhs and the UK since 1820. Those areas were poor and under developed. Since that truce and until 1920s the areas main industry was pearl diving. UAE BEFORE OIL 12 UAE BEFORE OIL 13 BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO UAE Right after UK withdrawal from the area, the ruler of Abu Dhabi, who is the founder of the UAE formed a union with the ruler of Dubai which was latter extended to the 5 other emirates forming what is called now the United Arab Emirates in 1971. Since the discovery of oil the UAE has become a modern state with high standard of living and oil drove the UAE's economy. AFTER OIL – VIDEO UAE AFTER OIL 15 UAE - JAPAN TRADE RELATIONS The first export of Abu Dhabi’s oil cargo was to Japan in 1962. The first UAE’s oil cargo export to Japan was in 1973. For Japan: UAE is the 9th trading partner For UAE: Japan the 7th trading partner For Oil supply: UAE is Japan’s 2nd largest Oil suppler after Saudi Arabia with 25% of its total oil imports. JAPAN’S OIL IMPORTS FROM THE UAE IN 2013 Unit by Barrel (million) 27 26.6 26 25.1 25 23.8 24 23 22.2 22.3 Apr-13 May-13 22 Month 2013 Unit by Barrel January 2013 26.6 million February 2013 23.8 million March 2013 25.1 million April 2013 22.2 million May 2013 22.3 million 21 20 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 17 JAPAN’S OIL IMPORTS FROM GCC BY BARREL FOR THE YEAR 2013 45 40 39.6 36.4 36.1 35 30 32 27.2 26.6 25.1 23.8 25 20 16.5 15.7 15 11 9.2 10 Saudi Arabia 22.3 22.2 14.8 8.9 6.8 UAE Qatar 13.7 8.1 Kuwait 7.8 5 0 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 GCC Country Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Saudi Arabia 39.6 27.2 36.4 36.1 32 UAE Qatar Kuwait Total 26.6 15.7 9.2 91.1 23.8 11 6.8 68.8 25.1 16.5 8.9 86.9 22.2 14.8 8.1 81.2 22.3 13.7 7.8 75.8 18 JAPANESE OIL CONCESSION ADNOC WITH The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is the UAE’s National Oil Company owned by the government and the President of the UAE is the Chairman of the Supreme Petroleum Council. Japanese Companies such as: (JODCO, INPEX, Cosmo oil, JX Nippon oil and energy, TEPCO, Kansai Electric, Chubu Electric), have shares and oil concessions with ADNOC’s 16 subsidiaries in the UAE. 19 ABU DHABI NATIONAL OIL COMPANY’S (ADNOC) 16 SUBSIDIARIES ADNOC Gas Processing Exploration & Chemicals and Refined Products Production Services Petrochemicals Distribution GASCO IRSHAD BOROUGE ADGAS NDC FERTIL AL HOSN GAS ESNAAD ADNOC Distribution Exploring and Production of Oil & Gas Maritime Transportation ZADCO ADNATCO ADMA-OPCO NGSCO Oil Processing TAKREER ADCO ELIXIER 20 JAPANESE OIL CONCESSION Company Shareholders WITH Offshore Fields Concession Expire year Umm Shaif Lower Zakum 2018 Upper Zakum 2026 ADNOC 88.0% JODCO (Inpex) 12.0% Umm Al-dhalk 2018 ADNOC 60.0% JODCO (Inpex) 40.0% Satah 2018 Mubarras and others 2042 Japanese company ADMA - OPCO ZADCO Operated by ZADCO Operated by ZADCO ADOC ADNOC ADNOC 60% BP 14.67% TOTAL: 13.33 % JODCO (Inpex) 12.0% ADNOC 60.0% Exxon Mobil 28.0% JODCO (Inpex) 12.0% Cosmo oil 63.0% JX 31.5% TEPCO 1.8% Kansai Electric 1.8% Chubu Electric 1.8% 21 JAPAN’S GAS IMPORTS 2010-2013 FROM THE UAE IN Quantity of LNG delivered to TEPCO in Metric Ton 5,800,000 5,600,000 5,400,000 5,200,000 5,000,000 4,800,000 4,600,000 4,400,000 4,200,000 2010 Tax Year 2010 2011 2012 TOTAL 2011-2013 2011 Quantity of LNG delivered to TEPCO in MT 4,822,062 5,722,012 5,575,422 16,119,495 2012 Value in US$ $3,484,320,576 $4,983,757,149 $6,306,383,518 $14,774,461,243 22 UAE GAS TO JAPAN For liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply: UAE is a major exporter to Japan. During the earthquake and the tsunami that struck Japan in 2011, Abu Dhabi Liquefaction Company (ADGAS ), provided 0.8 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Tokyo Electric Power Company with grand total of LNG 5.7 million metric tons and value of 4.983.8 million U.S. dollars. ADGAS made a commitment to supply LNG to Tokyo Electric Power Company until the end of March 2019. However this has changed since June 2013, by the statement of H.E. Mohammed Al Hamli- former UAE Minister of Energy that UAE is at risk of becoming an LNG importer, because of its own steady growth in population and electricity demand. This was one of the reasons where I took interest into conducting this research and start looking for other options which will still retain the economic relations between UAE and Japan. EXPLORING THE POSSIBILITY OF CREATING AN FTA WITH JAPAN In order to explore the possibilities of creating an FTA with Japan, I will first need to research about the UAE’s current FTA’s. Finding # 1 From my research and the data collected I discovered that: The UAE can not sign an individual FTA. The UAE is a member of the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) which their rules indicate that an FTA can only be sighed between all the 6 GCC members and another country therefore (6+1) INTRODUCTION TO GCC GCC stands for; Gulf Cooperation Council The GCC countries are: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Qatar Kuwait The Sultanate of Oman Kingdom of Bahrain The background of those days From September 1980 to August 1988 the first Persian Gulf War took place between Iran and Iraq. This motivated the GCC countries which recently got their independence from the UK consider a union that would protect them from other powers such as Iraq and Iran. Therefore right after this war started GCC was established in Abu Dhabi on May 25, 1981. GULF CORPORATION COUNCIL LOCATION GULF CORPORATION COUNCIL LOCATION GCC INTERNATIONAL TRADE GCC is a Custom Union since 01 Jan 2003. All GCC countries are members of World Trade Organization (WTO). GCC has many on going FTA negotiations. GCC Signed FTA’s with Singapore, European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and New Zealand. GCC is also a part of the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) 28 LIST OF THE GCC FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS AND ONGOING NEGOTIATIONS Countries Number of Rounds Status Singapore 4 rounds December 2008 signed EFTA 5 rounds June 2009 signed New Zealand 6 rounds July 2007 signed by Initials Japan On going Turkey 3 rounds since negotiations started in September 2006 4 rounds European Union 24 rounds On going China 4 rounds On going Turkey 4 rounds On going Australia 4 rounds On going South Korea 3 rounds On going India, Pakistan & Mercosur 2 rounds On going On going 29 WHAT ARE THE GCC COUNTRIES STRATEGIES IN ESTABLISHING FTA? Their Strategy is based on: 1. Collective negotiation between the GCC and other countries aiming to find the best conditions and equal circumstances in the international economic dealings through a consensus between all 6 GCC members. 1. Joint negotiation strategy in terms of goods, services, IPRs, environment, labour standards and investments with the business partners. 2. Halal standards in trading products. 30 EXAMPLES OF GCC FTAS 1. 2. GCC FTA with Singapore (GSFTA) Greater Arab FTA (GAFTA) CASE # 1: FIRST FTA BETWEEN GCC & SINGAPORE 32 WHY GCC HAS CHOSEN SINGAPORE TO BE THEIR FIRST TO CREATE AN FTA WITH? 1. Singapore has a highly developed and successful free-market economy. 2. It enjoys: Open and corruption-free environment Stable prices A GDP per capita which is higher than that of most developed countries 3. Its economy depends heavily on exports. 4. In 2012, trade between Singapore and GCC countries reached S$68 Billion Singapore Dollars, and trade between Singapore and UAE in the same years reached S$25 Billion dollars. 5. Singapore has the Islamic Council for Halal Standards. 33 GCC FTA WITH SINGAPORE (GSFTA) The GSFTA was signed in Doha (Qatar) on 15 December 2008. Objectives of forming GSFTA in terms of the GCC: To enhance trade and economic relations and boost the investment ties. To increase export opportunities for Gulf products, goods and services, which will not include Singapore only, but extends to the East Asian region due to the centre of Singapore which is a trade station and reexport center in the region. GCC Export Singapore 34 TRADE BETWEEN GCC AND SINGAPORE Countries GCC Trade Volume with Singapore (Year 2012) Trade Volume % per GCC country with Singapore in 2012 Top Imports (From Singapore) Top Exports (To Singapore) Jewelry, Telephone Sets and Precious Metals Crude Petroleum, Petroleum Products and Gold Oil Drilling Platforms, Machine Parts, Refined Petroleum Crude Oil, Refined Petroleum Products, Plastics Aero-plane Parts, Electrical Machinery Parts, Printing Machines Parts, Jewelry Refined Petroleum Products, Raw Aluminum, Methanol (in $ million) UAE $25,500 37.2% Saudi Arabia $23,000 33.6% $596 0.9% Bahrain Qatar $9,800 14.3% Boring/Sinking Machinery and Bunker Fuel Petroleum Oils and Mineral Oils Kuwait $6,200 9.1% Civil Engineering Equipment, Electrical Products Crude Petroleum, Petroleum Products, Processed Milk Products Oman $3,400 5.0% Petroleum and Petroleum Products Petroleum Products, Civil Engineering Parts, Electrical Machinery $68,496 TRADE BETWEEN GCC AND SINGAPORE GCC Trade Volume with Singapore (Year 2012) (in $ million) Trade Volume % per GCC country with Singapore in 2012 $30,000 $25,500 $25,000 $23,000 5.0% $20,000 9.1% $15,000 37.2% 14.3% Qatar Kuwait $6,200 $5,000 0.9% $3,400 $596 $0 UAE Saudi Arabia Bahrain Qatar Saudi Arabia Bahrain $9,800 $10,000 UAE Kuwait Oman 33.6% Oman SINGAPORE ISLAMIC COUNCIL HALAL STANDARDS 1. 2. This GSFTA encourages a greater recognition of Singapore's Halal standards in the GCC trade group. The GCC have committed to recognise the Singapore Islamic Council Halal Standards as the same standards in their countries. Benefits from this recognition of the Singapore halal standards: It will facilitate trade in halal products’ exports to the GCC Countries. It will increase tourism opportunities and travel as GCC travellers will meet their dietary requirements when travelling to Singapore. 37 THE TROUBLE OF DOMESTIC ADJUSTMENT IN GCC GCC-Singapore FTA has stopped as Saudi Arabia has not yet ratified the convention. According to the official report of the Saudi Arabia embassy in Singapore, the reasons for not ratifying this FTA was due to the fact that Singapore doesn’t treat all the GCC countries equally in terms of visa granting. For KSA residents they are required to obtain a visa to entre Singapore while others GCC member such as the UAE do not require a visa to Singapore. 38 CASE # 2: GREATER ARAB FREE TRADE AREA • Introduction to the Arab League • The Greater Arab Free Trade Area FIGURE 1: ELABORATION The Arab League (22) GAFTA (18) GCC (6) UAE (7) INTRODUCTION TO THE ARAB LEAGUE Before I start exploring the Greater Arab Free Trade Area, I will need to first introduce the Arab League as all the members of this FTA are Arab league members. The Arab League is a regional organization based on a shared culture and one language “Arabic”. This league was founded on March 22, 1945. The main aim of this league is to help the Arab Countries coordinates their policies and gain a united political voice in the world. The Arab league consist of 22 Arabic countries which are all the Arab countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). THE ARAB LEAGUE LOCATION THE ARAB LEAGUE GENERAL INFORMATION The population of the Arab League is about 320 million. GDP growth at 5 percent, and of 8 US Dollars per Capita. The leagues members’ countries cover up to 14 million square kilometers. THE ARAB LEAGUE FORMATION FROM A HISTORICAL BACKGROUND If we go back to history we can understand clearly the meaning and idea behind creating such an organization. The Arabs always believed that they should have their own independent nation state since the Ottoman Empire and the occupation of the Great Britain and France. The establishment of this league was before the end of world war 2 and before the establishment of the United Nation. This was coming from the believe of the Arabs that they should stand together against the European domination. At first the league started with seven members which are Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. The other members at that time were not yet gained their independence. (The United Arab Emirates for example joined in 1971 right after its independence from Britain and the united of the seven Emirates). Egypt is the main founder of the Arab league and its head quarter is in Cairo. At Jamal’s presidency the Arab League was very strong and was feared by many foreign powers. JAMAL ABD AL NASSER INFLUENCES TO THE ARAB LEAGUE Gamal Abdul Nasser was an Egyptian revolutionist that successfully drove the British out of his country after 72 years of occupation. Jamal became famous all around the Arab Peninsula after standing firm against the western nations and his efforts of combining the Arab power to battle against Israel. Under his presidency Egypt came out of intense poverty to prosperity. In his presidency he nationalized banks and industries. JAMAL’S ECONOMIC INFLUENCE TO THE ARAB WORLD – SUEZ CANAL In 1956 Jamal announced to World that he was nationalizing the Suez Canal Company and creating an Egyptian Canal Authority to manage the Canal. This Canal originally was planned by the French however the British took over and finished its construction. The shares of this Canal was divided between France, England and Egypt however the English bought the Egyptian share as their country was in debts, and latter on the British took full ownership. It is important to mention that half of Egypt's yearly national income is from this Canal. By this time Jamal had become a hero in the Arab world. This Canal is very important for Trade due to the fact that it is the only canal that connects the red sea with the Mediterranean sea. MORE INFLUENCES TO THE ARAB WORLD In addition Jamal constructed the Dam which covers most of Egypt’s electricity needs and take water to un irrigated lands. Due to Jamal economic policies especially construction of the Dam and the Canal; Egypt emerged from poverty stricken country to a prospering nation. Moreover, in1958 Syria and Egypt united under his presidency, forming the United Arab Republic, hoping that one day all the Arab nations would join. Sadly, the league lost its powers after Jamal’s death and the Egypt-Syria union broke. THE ARAB LEAGUE AND APEC 1. 2. 3. The Arab League is similar to APEC. What is APEC? APEC is the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. APEC has 21 member countries. APEC was established in 1989. APEC seeks to promote free trade and economic cooperation throughout the Asia Pacific Region. APEC aims to raise living standards and educational level through sustainable economic growth. Therefore the differences between both is that APEC goals are purely economical and the Arab League’s are purely political with a goal of future economic corporation. In addition, both organizations meetings mostly fail in achieving their goals. THE ARAB LEAGUE AND APEC Similarities and Differences Arab League 22 GCC 6 APEC 21 ASEAN 10 ARAB LEAGUE’S 22 COUNTRIES DATES The Arab League members Date of Independence of each member Date of Joining the Arab League Egypt 1932 1945 Iraq 1932 1945 Jordan 1946 1945 Lebanon 1943 1945 Saudi Arabia 1932 Syria 1946 1945 1945 Yemen 1990 (reunited date) 1945 Libya 1960 1953 Sudan 1956 1956 Morocco 1956 1958 Tunisia 1956 1958 Kuwait 1961 1961 Algeria 1962 1962 Bahrain 1971 1971 U.A.E. 1971 1971 Oman 1650 1971 Qatar 1971 1971 Mauritania 1960 1973 Somalia 1960 1974 Palestine N/A 1976 Djibouti 1977 1977 Comoros 1975 1993 THE ARAB LEAGUE HISTORY IN FORMING TRADE AGREEMENTS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. The Arab League has a long history of trying to foster trade and economic cooperation among its member states, with several initiatives taken in the 1950s and 1960s such as: The1950 Treaty for Joint Defense and Economic Cooperation. The 1953 Convention for Facilitating and Regulating Transit Trade. The 1957 Arab Economic Unity Agreement. The 1964 Arab Common Market. The 1989 Arab Cooperation Council. The 1989 Arab Maghreb Union. Those agreements have not been implemented and as a result to that; trade barriers have remained high within the Arab region. However,, In 1981, an agreement to facilitate and promote inter-Arab trade was signed. ESTABLISHING THE GREATER ARAB FREE TRADE AREA (GAFTA) In February 1997, the League decided to create an Arab Free Trade Area, also known as the Greater Arab Free Trade Area or the Pan-Arab Free Trade Area. This agreement came into force on January 1998 and to be completed by 2008. This GAFTA would be achieved through a 10% reduction in customs fees each year as well as the gradual elimination of trade barriers. 18 of the 22 Arab League states signed this agreement. ARAB FREE TRADE AREA MEMBERS This GAFTA has 18 members The first 17 members entered this agreement in 1997, after that in 2005 Algeria followed. Those members are: 1. Jordan 2. Palestine 3. United Arab Emirates 4. Kuwait 5. Qatar 6. Yemen 7. Lebanon 8. Saudi Arabia * ALL GCC COUNTRIES 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. Bahrain Libya Sudan Egypt Morocco Syria Iraq Oman Tunisia Algeria ARE MEMBERS OF THIS GAFTA GAFTA MEMBERS AND WTO Only 10 members of the 18 GAFTA members are also members of the world trade organization (WTO). Those members are: 1. United Arab Emirates (10 April 1996) 2. Kuwait (1 January 1995) 3. Qatar (13 January 1996) 4. Bahrain (1 January 1995) 5. Saudi Arabia (11 December2005) 6. Oman (9 November 2000) 7. Morocco (1 January 1995) 8. Egypt (30 June 1995) 9. Jordan (11 April 2000) 10. Tunisia (29 March 1995) The other GAFTA members are observers in WTO. GAFTA PROCESS Based on the Decision No. 1317 D 59 by the Economic and Social Council at the meeting held on 19 February 1997, a timeline was set to the establishment of an Arab Free Trade Area. The Time line sit for the GAFTA was from1/1/1998 to 1/1/2008. This Agreement entered into force on 1/1/1998. By 2002, 17countries has signed this GAFTA, and by 2005, 18 countries has signed. During the liberalization process member countries were able to exclude from tariff reductions certain agricultural products depending on the production season. In January 2005, the elimination of most tariffs among the GAFTA members was enforced. CONDITIONS OF THE GAFTA Gradual reduction in tariff rates, at an annual rate of 10% intra trade starting on 1/1/1998. The possibility of exempting a number of products based upon a decision of the Social and Economic Council of the Arab League. Application of the “Agricultural Calendar” given the following conditions: 1. Maximum of ten products to be included on the list per country. 2. The maximum time allowed for a listed product to remain on the calendar is 7 months per year. 3. Products included in the calendar do not benefit from the gradual reductions in tariff rates during specific seasons. GAFTA BENEFITS According to the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Tokyo report 2008: This GAFTA is beneficial as it covers all the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League countries. 1. It includes the removal of tariffs facilitating trade between all members. 2. It decreases the flow of smuggled goods which harm local productions. 3. It encourages the movement of natural personal (intra between its member countries only). DATA FROM ARAB MONETARY FUND - FIGURES IN US MILLION $- 2008 1990 1995 Total External Ratio IAT-TET Trade Total InterArab Trade 2000 Country Total InterArab Trade Total External Total InterRatio IAT-TET Trade Arab Trade Total External Ratio IAT-TET Trade Jordan 1.056 3.504 30.1% 1.496 5.467 27.4% 1.081 6.496 16.6% UAE 2.236 33.389 6.7% 3.291 52.389 6.3% 6.682 82.879 8.1% Bahrain 2.203 7.547 29.2% 2.169 7.83 27.7% 1.967 10.312 19.1% Tunisia 775 9.684 8.0% 991 13.676 7.2% 1.151 14.229 8.1% Algeria 469 20.689 2.3% 560 21.042 2.6% 553 29.223 1.9% Saudi Arabia 5.772 68.498 8.4% 6.473 78.128 8.3% 9.249 109.055 8.5% Sudan 535 1.819 29.4% 537 1.789 30.0% 535 3.359 15.9% Syria 937 6.602 14.1% 1.298 8.595 15.1% 1.357 9.072 15.0% Somalia 111 545 20.4% 185 447 41.4% 146 576 25.3% Iraq 1.578 16.839 9.4% 714 1.089 65.5% 1.05 16.843 6.2% Oman 3.581 8.235 43.5% 2.142 10.313 20.8% 3.359 16.694 20.1% Qatar 386 4.988 7.7% 572 5.609 10.1% 1.269 14.779 8.6% Kuwait 535 12.231 4.3% 1.263 20.616 6.1% 1.44 27.193 5.3% Lebanon 643 2.972 21.6% 733 7.376 9.9% 1.058 6.944 15.2% Libya 792 19.541 4.0% 1.135 13.697 8.3% 1.04 16.095 6.5% Egypt 481 11.801 4.0% 924 15.18 6.0% 1.919 18.469 10.4% Morocco 1.405 12.142 11.6% 1.145 13.245 8.6% 1.008 20.375 4.9% Mauritania 27 857 3.2% 37 1.214 3.0% 35 1.095 31.9% Yemen 552 3.946 13.9% 738 3.521 20.9% 1.045 6.418 16.3% TOTAL 24.073 245.829 9,79 % 26.404 281.225 9,39 % 34.107 410.106 8,32 % DATA FROM ARAB MONETARY FUND - FIGURES IN US MILLION $- 2008 Year 1995 1990 2000 Country Total InterArab Trade Total External Trade Total InterArab Trade Total External Trade Total InterArab Trade Total External Trade UAE 2.236 33.389 3.291 52.389 6.682 82.879 Tunisia 775 9.684 991 13.676 1.151 14.229 Saudi Arabia 5.772 68.498 6.473 78.128 9.249 109.055 Lebanon 643 2.972 733 7.376 1.058 6.944 TOTAL 24.073 245.829 26.404 281.225 34.107 410.106 TOTAL INTER-ARAB TRADE AND TOTAL EXTERNAL TRADE - FIGURES IN US MILLION $ - 450 400 350 410.106 300 Total External Trade (1990) Total Inter-Arab Trade (1995) 250 200 281.225 245.829 100 24.073 26.404 0 TOTAL Arab Trade Total External Trade (1995) Total Inter-Arab Trade (2000) Total External Trade (2000) 150 50 Total Inter-Arab Trade (1990) 34.107 THE GAFTA AFTER 2008? There are no registered data on what is the development made on this GAFTA after the year 2008. According to his Excellency the ambassador of Egypt in the UAE, he stated that due to the Arab spring and the unstable political situations in the region temporally stopped this FTA. He stressed that members of this GAFTA are members of the Arab League which aims to serve as political entity making it difficult to isolate the effects on their trade agreements. LAST UPDATE REGARDING THIS GAFTA IN THE ARAB SUMMIT IN DOHA IN MARCH 2013 In this meeting held in Qatar: 1. The members wish to have a final agreement on the full implementation of this GAFTA by 2015. 2. A proposal for this agreement was completed by the Arab Economic and Social Council and it just requires the approval of the Arab leaders. CONCLUSIONS ON GREATER ARAB FTA This GAFTA make the Arabs look united as most of this GAFTA members are in MENA with important advantages on two levels: 1. locally within the GAFTA region; by improving living standards and strengthening their economy. 2. Internationally with the rest of the world; more investment with all the GAFTA members and exploring further trade opportunities. PROBLEMS FROM GCC-FTAS APPLICABLE TO JAPAN From studying the case of GCC-FTA with Singapore and conducting several interviews with ambassadors in GCC embassies in Tokyo. There are two problems to solved before the possibility to create Japan/GCC FTA; 1. Japan does not give diplomatic equality to all the GCC countries yet. For example; the visa issues. Therefore Japan needs to apply its rules equally to all GCC six countries. 2. Japan does not have Halal standards yet. BENEFITS FROM GCC-FTAS APPLICABLE TO JAPAN Allows domestic exports of Japan to reach the six markets of GCC countries without tariff and vies versa. Brings freedom for Japanese companies to work in all the six GCC countries in many areas; - In directly (through Dubai) before the FTA - Directly (to all GCC Countries) after the FTA CONCLUSIONS – GCC /JAPAN FTA 1. GCC countries are similar in terms of their wealth (oil) and future challenges, therefore signing an FTA with Japan will be one of the options that will retain their economy once their Oil runs out. Especially that Japan depends on the GCC countries for more than 70% of its total oil needs which means those GCC countries depend heavily on oil with Japan to boost their economic relations with Japan. 2. GCC believes in the message behind the Arab League and promoting an Arabic unity between its members therefore: Singing an FTA with Japan will also resulted in improving the current situation of the GAFTA where more job opportunities will be available in addition to new possibilities of acquiring highly advanced technology. Therefore this FTA with Japan will not only serve GCC but will also serve the Arab League indirectly. 3. An FTA is also an opportunity for Japan and UAE to team up their researchers to develop new technologies for creating supply out of shale and other sources of energy (wind, solar, ..etc), therefore the establishment of a possible collaboration between both countries Japan & UAE over new oil/energy development technologies. REFERENCES The official website of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Jordan on http://www.mit.gov.jo/Default.aspx?tabid=732 The official website of Egypt ministry of Trade and Industry http://www.tas.gov.eg/English/Trade%20Agreements/Countries%20and%20Regions/Middle%20East %20and%20North%20Africa/gafta http://www.tas.gov.eg/NR/rdonlyres/164E81D4-27BB-4D63-9DA7-33C8A315ACFF/1074/Gafta2.pdf The official website of GCC http://www.gcc-sg.org/eng/ The official website of WTO http://www.moft.gov.ae/wto/ The Official website of the ministry of economy http://www.uaetrade-usa.org/index.php The official website of the Ministry of foreign Trade in UAE http://www.moft.gov.ae/en/ The report from The UAE Ministry of Foreign affairs 2005. The Oman Embassy in Singapore YOMIURI and NIKKEI newspapers article published in 5 June 2013 on EK Emirates 247 article on http://www.emirates247.com/business/economy-finance/uae-japan-tradegrows-14-5-2012-09-26-1.477073 The official website of the Marriage fund http://zawaj.gov.ae/en/ The official website of AbuDhabi Yas Island http://www.yasisland.ae/ The GCC Common Market’s facts and figures, the fifth annual statistical report issued by GCC Secretariat http://thediplomatmagazine.com/headlines/uaes-trade-with-gcc-rose-to-85b/ REFERENCES The UAE embassy in Tokyo The Qatar Embassy in Tokyo The UAE embassy in Singapor The European institute for research MEDEA official website http://www.medea.be/en/themes/economy-and-trade/arab-free-trade-area-afta/ The GCC Common Market’s facts and figures, the fifth annual statistical report issued by GCC Secretariat http://thediplomatmagazine.com/headlines/uaes-tradewith-gcc-rose-to-85b/ The article published in The Cairo Times, Vol 2, Iss 5, 2005. Al YAUM Times online article on http://gulfmailonline.com/2013/05/11/free-tradeagreement-could-further-boost-inter-arab-trade/ Arab Times news article on http://www.arabnews.com/news/451429 The report issued by the Diplomatic Center for Strategic Studies, entitled: GCC free trade with global conglomerates, UAE in July 2009. The official website of the Ministry of Foreign Singapore: www.mofa.gov.sg The Official website of ADNOC, www.adnoc.ae The report from The UAE embassy in Singapore on the Impact of FTAs on Singapore's Domestic Exports of Goods 2009. The report issued by the Diplomatic Center for Strategic Studies, entitled: GCC free trade with global conglomerates, UAE in July 2009. THANK YOU FOR LISTENING ANY QUESTIONS ? 72