CRONEM, Guildford 12.–13. June 2007 Is European Nationalism failing because of a lack of myths? A time series analysis of public communication in Europe from 1951 to 2005 Dr. David Tréfás Europainstitut der Universität Basel fög – Forschungsbereich Öffentlichkeit und Gesellschaft der Universität Zürich in cooperation with the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for European History and Public Spheres Content Theory of political myth The project „European identity and public spheres“ We-References to Europe in public communication Main values in France, Germany and Hungary Temporal references in France, Germany and Hungary Relation of Values to Temporal References European myths in France, Germany and Hungary Conclusion 2 Theory of political myth Any ideologically marked political story has the potential to become a myth if narrated by an appropriate teller to an appropriate audience in appropriate circumstances. “Mythmaking is a communication process which […] will carry authority when it is communicated in an appropriate way, by an appropriate teller or set of tellers, in an appropriate historical, social, and ideological context.” (Flood 1996: 43f) Only temporal references in combination with values are potentially mythified. 3 The project: „European identity and public spheres“: Arenatheoretical Model of Public Sphere If communication events create resonance in different arenas of the public sphere, then these are society-relevant and refer to constellations of conflict and crisis events These concepts (and constructions of a shared belief) can only be collectively communicated and inter-subjectified in the public sphere >>> in modern societies only through mass-communication 4 Arenatheoretical Model of Public Sphere Ferree, Gamson, Gerhards, Rucht (2002): Shaping abortion discourse. p. 11. 5 Point of departure Identity or „Gemeinsamkeitsglauben“ (shared belief/Max Weber) can only be built by communication in the public sphere So far the (principle of the) public sphere has been closely linked to the nationstate With regards to the EU, there are - a public sphere deficit - a democracy deficit - an identity deficit 6 Methodological Concept and Empirical Approach The emergence of public sphere(s) and collective identities are closely linked and are conditional on one another >>> identity of the modern age is generated in public communication Empirical Conclusion: Time-series analysis of conflict-induced concentration of communication Based on the analysis of perception of threat Based on a distinction of the “we” and the “others” Based on the analysis of temporal references 7 Countries and Media 8 Key Events in Public Communication Communication on crisis-events Communication on institutional events 1950ies Suez crisis, Hungarian Uprising (56) Sputnik shock (57) Foundation of ECSC (51) Foundation of EEC (57) 1960ies Berlin Wall (61) Cuba crisis (62) Prague Spring (68) 1970ies Kippour War (73) UK joins the EC (73) 1980ies War in the Gulf I (Iran/Iraq) (80) Falkland War (82) Single European Act (85) 1990ies War in the Gulf II (90/91) War in Bosnia (94) War in Kosovo (98) Treaty of Maastricht (92) European Council in Nizza (00) 2000 War in the Gulf III (03) Enlargement of the EU (04) Crisis of Ratification of the Constitutional Treaty (05) 9 We-References to Europe in public communication n=719 10 Top 5 values, arena France 2005 16 14 12 F:EU-Integration Most mentioned values Willingness to EU-integration 10 F:Liberty Most mentioned values Freedom 8 . F: Most mentioned values Wealth Wealth 6 F:Democracy Most mentioned values Democracy 4 Law F:Rule Mostofmentioned values Rule of Law 2 0 1 n=69 11 Top 5 values, arena Germany 2005 16 14 12 10 SocialMost Justice FRG: mentioned values Social Justice Democracy FRG: Most mentioned values Democracy 8 Wealth FRG: Most mentioned values Wealth 6 FRG: Most mentioned values Progress Progress FRG: Most mentioned values Peaceableness Peaceableness 4 2 0 1 n=68 12 Top 5 values, arena Hungary 2005 8 7 6 5 H: Freedom 4 H: Democracy H: Wealth 3 H: Pluralism 2 1 0 1 n=24 13 Top 3 temporal references 2005 France Germany Hungary Nr. 1 1992: Maastricht (17%) 2000: Nizza (21%) Undefined Future (47%) Nr. 2 2000: Nizza (11%) 1992: Maastricht (11%) Undefined Past (11%) Nr. 3 1957: Foundation EEC (10%) 1989: Fall of Iron Curtain (11%) Communism (10%) n=70 n=28 n=19 14 Relation of Values to Temporal References France Germany Hungary Nr. 1 EU-Integration/Nizza Democracy/Nizza Democracy/ Undefined future Nr. 2 EU-Integration/ Maastricht Democracy/ Maastricht Nr. 3 Freedom/Nizza Wealth/Nizza 15 European myth in the French arena Myth about Europe is the myth about France. France as motor of integration in the name of human rights and liberty. France has achieved the Treaty of Rome, Maastricht and Nizza. Europe as a fortress against British pessimism and Turkey 16 European myth in the German arena The myth about Europe is a myth about democracy. The European elite in Brussels in fear of the people of Europe. The Maastricht Treaty has brought democracy. Parallels to the German myth about learning of democracy in the Adenauer era. 17 European myth in the Hungarian arena Myth of Europe is a myth about new colonialism. Europe lacks democracy and will lack democracy in the future. For the liberal media, remedy will come from the European peoples. The conservative media compare the EU to Soviet communism and detects a hostility towards the nationstate (as an alternative in the future). 18 Conclusion There is no pan-European myth to observe In every nationstate, myths are structured by specific national narratives Divergent values as the centre of myths in every nationstate Convergence of temporal references in Germany and France. Is there a potential for a pool for mythification in times of crisis? 19 Thank you for your attention! Contact: Dr. David Tréfás fög - Forschungsbereich Öffentlichkeit und Gesellschaft Universität Zürich Andreasstrasse 15 8050 Zürich Tel.: +41 (0)44 635 21 22 Fax.: +41 (0)44 635 21 01 mail: david.trefas@foeg.unizh.ch Web.: www.foeg.unizh.ch 20