1
Introduction
Methodology
SSI
Introduction
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Purpose of the SSI
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Working definition of space security
Military Space
Protection
Negation
“The secure and sustainable access to and use of
space, and freedom from space-based threats.”
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Conclusion
2
Introduction
Methodology
SSI
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
1) Research on trends and developments
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
2) Online questionnaire
Military Space
Protection
3) Expert review of research
Negation
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Conclusion
3
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
SSI
The Space Environment
- Trends Growing debris threats to spacecraft, but annual rate of
new debris production decreasing
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Increasing awareness of space debris threats and
continued development of international debris mitigation
guidelines
Conclusion
Growing demand for radio frequency spectrum
Growing demand for orbital slot allocations
Space surveillance capabilities to support collision
avoidance slowly improving
4
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
Military Space
Protection
SSI
The Space Environment
- Developments Space debris population increased by 2.1 percent
Space debris mitigation guidelines drafted at UN
COPUOS
Negation
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Over one thousand cases of radio-frequency
interference reported
Conclusion
Regional efforts to harmonize radio-frequency utilization
in Europe and Southeast Asia
China established space debris monitoring body
5
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
Military Space
SSI
Laws, Policies, and Doctrines
- Trends Progressive development of legal framework for outer
space activities: 1967 OST; 1968 Rescue Agreement;
1972 Liability and 1975 Registration Conventions
Protection
Negation
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Conclusion
Some work at COPUOS, but the CD has been
deadlocked on space weapons issues since 1998
National space policies consistently emphasize
international cooperation and peaceful uses of outer
space
Growing focus within national military doctrine on
security uses of outer space
6
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
SSI
Laws, Policies, and Doctrines
- Developments Further stalemate in “Prevention of an Arms Race in
Outer Space” (PAROS) debate at UN
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Conclusion
Expansion of COPUOS mandate proposed
New space policies adopted in China, Europe, Japan,
Kazakhstan, Russia, and US
India, Israel, and Japan stressing national security
space applications
US to release of new military space policy directive
7
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
Military Space
Protection
SSI
Civil Space and Global Utilities
- Trends Growth in the number of actors gaining access to space
Changing priorities and funding levels within civil space
programs
Negation
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Steady growth in international cooperation in civil space
Conclusion
Dramatic growth in use of global utilities
8
SSI
Introduction
Civil Space and Global Utilities
- Developments -
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Global progress in space access, launch, and
propulsion technologies
Commercial
Space
Military Space
Protection
Civil space agencies announce new programs, greater
focus on manned space exploration and micro-satellites
Negation
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Modest increases in international civil space budgets
Conclusion
Space agencies develop asteroid interception missions
ESA
Successful launch of first Galileo satellite
despite funding concerns
Japan
France
Russia
NASA
Italy*
India
Germany
UK
Brazil
Canada
China*
China and India access Russian GLONASS
satellite navigation system
9
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial Space
Military Space
SSI
Commercial Space
- Trends Continued overall growth in commercial space industry
World commercial space revenues rose from
$2.1 billion in 1980 to ~$100 billion in 2004
Protection
Negation
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Conclusion
Declining commercial launch costs support increased
commercial access to space
GEO launch costs have declined from about
$40,000/kg in 1990 to $26,000/kg in 2000
Government subsidies and national security concerns
play an important role in the commercial space sector
10
SSI
Long March 2F
Volna
Introduction
Cosmos
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Long March 3B
Long March 2C
Long March 2D
Molniya
PSLV
Proton
Zenit 3SL
Dnepr
Pegasus XL
Rockot
Civil Space
Delta 2
Soyuz
Atlas 5
Military Space
Negation
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Unequal growth in commercial space industry
Atlas 3
Shuttle
Commercial Space
Protection
Commercial Space
- Developments -
M5
Titan
Minotaur
Privatization and consolidation continues
H 2A Ariane 5
US continues to lose commercial launch
market share to Europe and Russia
Conclusion
Interest in nascent space tourism sector
US government remains single largest
commercial space client
11
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Conclusion
SSI
Space Support for Terrestrial Military
Operations
- Trends US and USSR/Russia lead in developing military space
systems
US has over 100 operational military satellites,
90% of global military space spending
Russia has approximately 61 operational
military satellites
More states developing military space capabilities:
Australia, Chile, China, France, Germany,
Israel, Italy, Japan, NATO, Spain, UK all have
dedicated military space assets
12
SSI
Introduction
Space Support for Terrestrial Military
Operations
- Developments -
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
Significant cost overruns and delays in US military
space acquisition programs
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Russia continues to face program setbacks
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Regional tensions drive military space development in
Asia and Middle East
Conclusion
Spain (1)
China (3)
China continues to expand military space
program
Russia (6)
US (7)
UK (1)
France (1)
European nations expand imaging and
communications capabilities
13
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
Military Space
Protection
SSI
Space Systems Protection
- Trends US and Russia lead in general capabilities to detect
rocket launches, the US in the development of
technologies to detect direct attacks on satellites
Negation
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Conclusion
Protection of satellite ground stations a concern:
protection of satellite communications links poor but
improving
Protection of satellites against some direct threats
improving
Russia and the US lead in capabilities to rapidly rebuild
space systems following a direct attack on satellites
14
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
SSI
Space Systems Protection
- Developments US developing geostationary and ground-based space
situational awareness
Military Space
Protection
US successfully tests GPS “pseudolite”
Negation
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Conclusion
Increasing encryption of satellite communications
Improvements in radiation hardened processors
US research satellite to facilitate greater use of MEO
Smaller, cheaper launches increasing ability to recover
after attack
Russia continuing to develop air launch capacity
15
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
SSI
Space Systems Negation
- Trends Proliferation of capabilities to attack ground stations
and communications links
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Conclusion
US leading in the development of space situational
awareness capabilities to support space negation
Ongoing proliferation of ground-based capabilities to
attack satellites
Increasing access to space-based negation enabling
capabilities
16
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
SSI
Space Systems Negation
- Developments State-sponsored jamming incidents in Libya and
Iran, Falun Gong sponsored jamming in China
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Progress on High-Energy Lasers in the US and on
basic laser research in China
Space-Based
Strike Weapons
Conclusion
Upgrades in US and Russian ground-based antiballistic missile systems
Actors in China, France, and UK continue basic
research into kinetic kill vehicles
US micro-satellites demonstrate dual-use
rendezvous and surveillance capabilities
17
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
Military Space
Protection
SSI
Space-Based Strike Weapons
- Trends No space-based strike weapons (SBSW) have been
tested or deployed in space; the US continues to
develop a space-based interceptor for its missile
defense system
Negation
Space-Based Strike
Weapons
Conclusion
A growing number of actors are developing SBSW
precursor technologies outside of SBSW programs
Precision navigation
Micro-satellites
Precision re-entry
Precision attitude control
High power lasers
High-G thrusters
Large ∆-V thrusters
Precision maneuverability
18
Introduction
Methodology
Environment
Laws, Policies and
Doctrines
Civil Space
Commercial
Space
SSI
Space-Based Strike Weapons
- Developments SBSW Programs
US NFIRE Kill Vehicle test cancelled
Military Space
Protection
Negation
Space-Based Strike
Weapons
SBSW pre-cursor technologies
Development of precision re-entry technology in US,
Russia, China, and Europe
Conclusion
Upgrades in US and Russian global missile tracking
and warning
US, Europe, China, Russia, and India continue
research and development of global positioning
systems
19