Jo
Breakpoint
Jon McGee
College of Saint Benedict/Saint John’s University
Harvard Summer Institute on College Admissions
June 2015
Alexander Calder, La Machine à Hatiber
Boom!
Two-thirds of all students head
to college within a year of graduating
from high school, up from 60% a
generation ago
Source: US Dept of Education, NCES
ROI
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, “Do the Benefits
of College Still Outweigh the Costs?”, 2014
Accessibility
Sustainability
Affordability
Accountability
Demographic
Disruption
Composition
Competition
Bienvenido al futuro de los Estados Unidos
2010 High School
Graduates
1%
2020 High School
Graduates
1%
White
6%
Hispanic
15%
7%
14%
Black
17%
61%
Asian
American
Indian
Source: WICHE
23%
55%
Economics of Demography
Median Income, Families with Children
Aged 6 to 17, 2013
$100,000
$81,664
$80,848
$80,000
$60,000
$41,153
$40,000
$41,134
$20,000
$White
Black
Asian
Hispanic
Source: US Census Bureau, CPS, Table
FINC-03, 2014
The Illusion of Demand
Percent of New College Students
Applying to at least Five Colleges
24% in
1990
31% in
2000
59%
in
2014
Source: UCLA, HERI
The Temple of their Familiar
Distance from Home to College
All New Entering Students at Four-Year
Colleges and Universities, Fall 2014
57% less
than 100
miles
27% 100
to 500 miles
16% more
than 500
miles
Source: UCLA, HERI
Economic
Disruption
Income
Saving
Lagging Family Income
$75,000
$70,000
$65,000
$60,000
$55,000
Real median income for families with children under age 18,
2013 dollars, Source: US Census Bureau, CPS, 2014
$50,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Saving or Hoping?
Fewer than half of American
families with pre-college age
children indicate that they
are saving for college
Source: SallieMae, How America Saves for College, 2015
Price Sensitivity and Deselection
PERCENTAGE OF STUDENTS WHO ELIMINATE COLLEGES BASED ON COST
2014
42%
41%
30%
42%
43%
52%
53%
58%
2010
BEFORE BEGINNING
RESEARCH
BEFORE APPLYING
Source: SallieMae, How America Pays for College
AFTER ADMISSION
AFTER FINANCIAL AID
Cultural
Disruption
Commoditization
Massification
Regulation
Com•mod•i•ty n.
A good or service whose wide availability
typically leads to smaller profit margins and
diminishes the importance of factors (such as
brand name) other than price.
Source: Merriam-Webster OnLine
Deus ex Machina
Competition, Complement, Substitute?
coursera
Organizational
Genomics
Reimagine
Getting to College
Apply
Achieve
Aspire
Aware
Afford
Reimagine
College
Complete
Attain
Retain
Enroll
Succeed
Think Different: Fit and Composition
Think Different: Value
VS.
Think Different:
Integrated Decision-Making
MODMobiles, 2013
Jon McGee
Vice President for Planning and Public Affairs
College of Saint Benedict/Saint John’s University
jmcgee@csbsju.edu
320.363.5287