Chapter Four Sources of Investment Information 1 McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2006 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Aggregate Economic Data Federal Reserve Bulletin Federal Reserve Banks Survey of Current Business Websites and Economic Date Other Sources of Economic Data 2 Federal Reserve Bulletin Published Monthly Domestic Financial Statistics Federal Reserve Banks Monetary and Credit Aggregates Commercial Banks Financial Markets Federal Finance Securities Markets and Corporate Finance 3 Federal Reserve Bulletin cont. Real Estate Consumer Installment Credit Domestic Nonfinancial Statistics International Statistics Securities Holdings and Transactions Interest and Exchange Rates www.federalreserve.gov 4 12 Federal Reserve Banks 5 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Comprehensive Economic Statistics U.S. Financial Data Monetary Trends International Economic Trends National Economic Trends www.stlouisfed.org/default.html 6 Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) Historical financial data Historical economic data Monthly reserves Interest rates Commercial banking data Gross domestic product (GDP) Regional economic data 7 Survey of Current Business Published monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce Major outlet for economic time series data Extremely helpful for industry analysis Excellent statistics Great details and sub-categories, example • Lumber, production statistics Hardwoods Softwoods • Douglas fir trees • Southern pine • Western pine http://www.bea.gov/beahome.html 8 Survey of Current Business cont. List of major series updates GDP, GNP Consumer price index (CPI) National income Production price index Personal income Construction put in place Industrial production Banking Housing starts and permits Consumer installment credit Retail trade Stock prices Labor force, Value of export & imports unemployment, & earnings Manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, & orders Motor vehicles 9 Websites and Economic Data Websites www.economy.com Comments Free & fee-based research on Economy Finance Country Industry Offers comprehensive & timely analysis & data www.economy.com/dismal Covers 180 economic indicators for 40 different countries 10 Websites and Economic Data Websites www.economagic.com Comments Comprehensive site of free and easily available Economic time series data 100,000 time series Customizable reports Access to data in Excel format Check their “Most Frequently Requested Series” 11 Other Sources of Economic Data 12 Websites www.gpoaccess. gov/indicators/ Comments Provides economic information on Prices Wages Production Business activity Purchasing power Credit Money Federal finance Economic Report of the President: Current and foreseeable trends and annual numerical goals concerning topics such as • Employment • Production • Real income • Federal budget outlays Employment objectives for significant groups of the the labor force Annual numeric goals 13 A program for carrying out program objectives www.gpoaccess. gov/eop/index.ht ml Investment Advisory Resources Mergent (Moody’s) Standard & Poor’s Value Line Morningstar Other Investment Resources 14 Mergent (Moody’s) Historical financial information The Manuals divided into categories: • • • • • • Finance & Banking Industrial Municipals & Government OTC Industrial Public Utility Transportation 15 Mergent (Moody’s) Online Internet-based access to • Detailed • Accurate • Comprehensive global company database Features & functions: • Batch printing Mergent Online EDGAR® documents 16 Mergent Online continued • Cross-border searching across multiple databases on a variety of financial and text variables • Export company reports & financial information into Microsoft® Word Microsoft® Excel • View PDF files Adobe® Acrobat® Reader • Compare reports of multiple companies • Speed and reliability • Customer service, & On-site training Materials to assist users and encourage use Technical support service for data and technical issues 17 Standard & Poor’s www.standardandpoors.com A subsidiary of McGraw-Hill (the publisher of this textbook) Comprehensive coverage Corporation Records -12,000 publicly held US & International companies Balance Sheet Income Statement Corporate profiles Subsidiaries SEC reports Stock Reports Industry Surveys Register of Public companies Register of Private companies News Press Releases Company’s market performance Technical evaluation Insider activity Key stock statistics Analysts’ consensus 18 Value Line Raw financial data Trendline growth rates Price history patterns in graphic form Quarterly • • • • Sales Earnings Dividends Sales & profit margins by line of business www.valueline.com 19 Value Line (cont.) A Unique Evaluation System Historical relationships Regression analysis Ratings 1 through 5 • “1” highest positive • “5” lowest Timeliness Safety Valuation has minimum human judgment 20 Morningstar Products for: • Investors • Finance professionals Products include: • • • • • • Morningstar Mutual Funds Morningstar No-Load Funds Morningstar Investor Morningstar Mutual Fund 500 Morningstar Variable Annuity/Life Performance Reports www.morningstar.com 21 Morningstar continued Stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (EFTs) Morningstar Ascent – individual investor Morningstar Principia investment professional Principia Plus 22 Other Investment Resources Dun & Bradstreet “Key Business Ratios” • 14 significant ratios Current assts/current debt Net profits/net sales Total debt/tangible net worth • 800 different lines of business by SIC code www.dnb.com 23 Other Investment Resources continued D&B Million Dollar Directory (print & online) New, intuitive user interface Updated online "Help” system Search on NAICS & SIC codes is now supported Running list of search criteria has been added Improved sorting feature will now sort any number of records "Jump To" feature allows you to find a specific record quickly Automatic authentication between domestic & international databases www.dnbmdd.com D&B's Million Dollar Databases 24 Other Investment Resources continued RMA Annual Statement Studies • Published by Robert Morris Associates • 150 industry classifications • Comparing data Balance sheet Income statement 25 Other Investment Resources continued Thompson Financial Thompson Research • Current • Historical Analyst reports Filings • 30,000 companies worldwide TM • SDC Platinum database of Merger Acquisition 26 Other Investment Resources continued Thomson’s IRChannel • First Call earnings estimates Retail stock brokers Analysts • • • • Merrill Lynch Salomon Smith Barney Paine Weber Prudential Securities Research & info on: Industry Company Bond market analysis Futures Commodities Options Tax Shelters • Oil • Gas • Real Estate 27 SEC Filings, Periodicals, and Journals Security and Exchange Commission Filings Periodicals and Newspapers Journals 28 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Primary mission: Protect investors Maintain the integrity of the securities markets Investors goals: Help secure their futures Pay for homes Send children to college www.sec.gov 29 SEC continued 10-K report – annual most popular 8-K report – significant changes 10-Q report quarterly • Quarterly financial statements • Changes in stockholdings • Legal proceedings 30 Common violations that may lead to SEC investigations Insider trading: buying or selling a security in breach of a relationship of trust and confidence while in possession of material, non-public information about the security Misrepresentation or omission of important information about securities Manipulating the market prices of securities Stealing customers' funds or securities Violating broker-dealers' responsibility to treat customers fairly Sale of securities without proper registration 31 Security and Exchange Commission Filings SEC website www.sec.gov • “Filings & Forms (EDGAR) Information on numerous investor issues • Regulations • Special studies • Securities related litigation EDGAR = Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, & Retrieval (SEC filings database) 32 Periodicals and Newspapers Magazines: Fortune Business Week Forbes Financial World Money 33 Periodicals and Newspapers cont. Financial sections of newspapers in: Chicago Dallas Cleveland New York Times (exceptional coverage) The Wall Street Journal (most popular) Barron’s Business and Financial Weekly Investor’s Business Daily 34 Periodicals and Newspapers cont. The Wall Street Transcript Commercial and Financial Chronicle Financial Times (www.ft.com) Industriscope (by Media General) Source of: • Fundamental analysis, & • Technical indicators 35 Journals Financial Analysts Journal The Journal of Portfolio Management Institutional Investor Journal of Finance Journal of Financila Economics Journal of Financial & Quantitative Analysis Journal of Financial Education 36 Databases S&P’s COMPUSTAT • • • • • www.compustat.com 50 years of data 50,000 North America and Global companies Financial data Market data Comparisons between Industries Companies 37 Databases continued EXAMPLE – Using COMPUSTAT, one screen for companies that meet the following criteria: 1. Dividend yield greater than 4% 2. Earnings growth greater than 15% per year 3. P/E ratio less than S&P’s 500 Stock Index 4. Market price less than book value 38 Databases continued Other Sources of Data Interactive Data Corporation CRSP Database Bloomberg’s Professional Financial Service • • • • • • • Financial instruments Real-time data access Current news Headlines Audio Television reports Proprietary analytical tools 39 The Internet and Investment Information Alert & wary using online data • Check for reliability • Source of data • Check for clues Date of data Last update 40 Additional Websites Stock exchanges NYSE www.nyse.com Chicago NASDAQ www.cbot.com www.cboe.com www.nasdaq.com AMEX London www.amex.com www.londonstockexchange.com Provide information such as: Volume Historical data Trading data Bid & ask prices Stock quotes Regulatory issues 41 Class Project Websites Websites Comments moneycentral.msn.com/investor Information on investing, news, and financial data money.cnn.com Current information about markets and companies www.bloomberg.com Market news and data www.freerealtime.com News, information and real time quotes finance.yahoo.com Information about investing, companies and markets 42 Websites Comments www.thestreet.com Information and opinion about markets and companies www.business.com Business-specific search engine and business information www.businessweek.com News and business information—requires fee www.wsj.com Wall Street Journal online— requires fee www.financialtimes.com Financial Times online—most articles require fee 43 Websites Comments www.forbes.com Forbes online—some information requires fee www.stocksandnews.com News and commentary on stocks and markets www.moneychimp.com Stock analysis and educational information www.economy.com Various forms of economic information www.stls.frb.org St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank site— includes FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) with historical, financial and economic data on the 44 U.S. Websites Comments www.bigcharts.com Create stock price charts www.financewise.com Finance-only search engine www.economagic.com Directory site of economic data collections www.investorlinks.com Directory site of financerelated websites 45 Summary Investors finding relevant information Were to look and what to look for Guidance and sample data Investors’ problems • Find usable information • Timely • Relevant 46 Summary Too many sources haunt beginners Could solve problem of finding good data in library Process increases awareness of the types of information available. 47