Chapter 4 Sources of Investment Information McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Sources of Investment Information Aggregate Economic Data Investment Advisory Resources SEC Filings, Periodicals, and Journals Databases The Internet and Investment Information Class Project Web Sites 4-2 Aggregate Economic Data Federal Reserve Bulletin Federal Reserve Banks Survey of Current Business Websites and Economic Date Other Sources of Economic Data 4-3 Federal Reserve Bulletin Published Online http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin Domestic Financial Statistics Federal Reserve Banks Monetary and Credit Aggregates Commercial Banks Financial Markets Federal Finance Securities Markets and Corporate Finance 4-4 Federal Reserve Bulletin cont. Real Estate Consumer Installment Credit Domestic Nonfinancial Statistics International Statistics Securities Holdings and Transactions Interest and Exchange Rates 4-5 12 Federal Reserve Banks 4-6 12 Federal Reserve Banks 4-7 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Comprehensive Economic Statistics www.stlouisfed.org/default.html U.S. Financial Data Monetary Trends International Economic Trends National Economic Trends 4-8 Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) http://research.stlouisfed.org/ Historical financial data Historical economic data Monthly reserves Interest rates Commercial banking data Gross domestic product (GDP) Regional economic data 4-9 Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis National Economic Trends – Short Term 4-10 Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis National Economic Trends – Long Term 4-11 Survey of Current Business http://www.bea.gov/beahome.html Published monthly by Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce Major outlet for economic time series data Extremely helpful for industry analysis Excellent statistics 4-12 Survey of Current Business continued http://www.bea.gov/ Great details and sub-categories • example Lumber, production statistics • Hardwoods • Softwoods Douglas fir trees Southern pine Western pine 4-13 Survey of Current Business cont. List of major series updates GDP, GNP National income Personal income Industrial production Consumer price index (CPI) Production price index Construction put in place Banking Housing starts and permits Consumer installment credit Retail trade Stock prices Labor force, Value of export & imports unemployment, & earnings Manufacturers’ shipments, Motor vehicles inventories, & orders 4-14 Websites and Economic Data Websites Comments Free & fee-based research on Economy www.economy.com Finance Country Industry Offers comprehensive & timely analysis & data www.economy.com/dismal Covers 180 economic indicators for 40 different countries 4-15 Websites and Economic Data Websites www.economagic.com Comments Comprehensive site of free and easily available Economic time series data 100,000 time series Customizable reports Access to data in Excel format Check their “Most Frequently Requested Series” 4-16 Other Sources of Economic Data 4-17 Websites www.gpoaccess. gov/indicators/ Comments Provides economic information on Prices Wages Production Business activity Purchasing power Credit Money Federal finance Economic Report of the President: Current and foreseeable trends and annual numerical goals concerning topics such as • Employment • Production • Real income • Federal budget outlays Employment objectives for significant groups of the the labor force Annual numeric goals A program for carrying out program objectives www.gpoaccess. gov/eop/index.ht ml 4-18 Investment Advisory Resources Mergent (Moody’s) Standard & Poor’s Value Line Morningstar Other Investment Resources 4-19 Mergent (Moody’s) http://www.mergent.com Historical financial information The Manuals divided into categories: • • • • • • Finance & Banking Industrial Municipals & Government OTC Industrial Public Utilities Transportation 4-20 Mergent Online • Cross-border searching across multiple databases • Export company reports & financial information into Microsoft® Word Microsoft® Excel • Compare reports of multiple companies 4-21 Standard & Poor’s www.standardandpoor.com A subsidiary of McGraw-Hill (the publisher of this textbook) Comprehensive coverage Corporation Records -12,000 publicly held US & International companies Balance Sheet Income Statement Corporate profiles Subsidiaries SEC reports Stock Reports Industry Surveys Register of Public companies Register of Private companies News Press Releases Company’s market performance Technical evaluation Insider activity Key stock statistics Analysts’ consensus 4-22 Value Line www.valueline.com Raw financial data Trendline growth rates Price history patterns in graphic form Quarterly • • • • Sales Earnings Dividends Sales & profit margins by line of business 4-23 Value Line (cont.) A Unique Evaluation System Historical relationships Regression analysis Ratings 1 through 5 • “1” highest positive • “5” lowest Timeliness Safety Valuation has minimum human judgment 4-24 Morningstar www.morningstar.com Products for: • Investors • Finance professionals Products include: • • • • • • Morningstar Mutual Funds Morningstar No-Load Funds Morningstar Investor Morningstar Mutual Fund 500 Morningstar Variable Annuity/Life Performance Reports 4-25 Morningstar continued Stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (EFTs) Morningstar Ascent – individual investor Morningstar Principia investment professional Principia Plus 4-26 Other Investment Resources www.dnb.com Dun & Bradstreet “Key Business Ratios” • 14 significant ratios Current assts/current debt Net profits/net sales Total debt/tangible net worth • 800 different lines of business by SIC code 4-27 Other Investment Resources continued www.dnbmdd.com D&B's Million Dollar Databases D&B Million Dollar Directory (print or online) Companies listed by name, location and industry classification • Online includes searches on NAICS & SIC codes • Useful for identifying companies within same industry or generating contact lists 4-28 Other Investment Resources continued RMA Annual Statement Studies • Published by Robert Morris Associates • 150 industry classifications • Comparing data Balance sheet Income statement 4-29 Other Investment Resources continued Thompson Financial Thompson Research • Current • Historical Analyst reports Filings • 30,000 companies worldwide TM • SDC Platinum database of Merger Acquisition 4-30 Other Investment Resources continued Thomson’s IRChannel • First Call earnings estimates Retail stock brokers Analysts • • • • Merrill Lynch Smith Barney UBS Prudential Securities Research & info on: Industry Company Bond market analysis Futures Commodities Options Tax Shelters • Oil • Gas • Real Estate 4-31 SEC Filings, Periodicals, and Journals Security and Exchange Commission Filings Periodicals and Newspapers Journals 4-32 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) www.sec.gov Primary mission: Protect investors Maintain the integrity of the securities markets Investors goals: Help secure their futures Pay for homes Send children to college 4-33 SEC continued 10-K report – annual 8-K report – significant changes 10-Q report quarterly most popular • Quarterly financial statements • Changes in stockholdings • Legal proceedings 4-34 Common violations that may lead to SEC investigations Insider trading • buying or selling a security while in possession of material, non-public information about the security Misrepresentation or omission of important information about securities Manipulating the market prices of securities 4-35 Common violations that may lead to SEC investigations continued Stealing customers' funds or securities Violating broker-dealers' responsibility to treat customers fairly Sale of securities without proper registration 4-36 Security and Exchange Commission Filings www.sec.gov “Filings & Forms (EDGAR) • Information on numerous investor issues Regulations Special studies Securities related litigation EDGAR = Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, & Retrieval (SEC filings database) 4-37 Periodicals and Newspapers Magazines: Fortune Business Week Forbes Financial World Money 4-38 Periodicals and Newspapers cont. Financial sections of newspapers in: Chicago Dallas Cleveland New York Times (exceptional coverage) The Wall Street Journal (most popular) Barron’s Business and Financial Weekly Investor’s Business Daily 4-39 Periodicals and Newspapers continued The Wall Street Transcript Commercial and Financial Chronicle Financial Times (www.ft.com) Industriscope 4-40 Journals Widely read by the profession • Financial Analysts Journal Published by Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Institute • The Journal of Portfolio Management • Institutional Investor 4-41 Journals continued Research-oriented academic journals • Journal of Finance • Journal of Financial Economics • Journal of Financial & Quantitative Analysis • Journal of Financial Education 4-42 Databases S&P’s COMPUSTAT www.compustat.com • 20 years of annual and quarterly financial and market data for over 50,000 North American and Global companies • Standardized to allow comparisons between industries and between companies • Useful for analyzing large number of companies 4-43 Databases continued EXAMPLE – Using COMPUSTAT: Search for companies that meet the following criteria: 1. Dividend yield greater than 4% 2. Earnings growth greater than 15% per year 3. P/E ratio less than S&P’s 500 Stock Index 4. Market price less than book value 4-44 Databases continued Other Sources of Data Interactive Data Corporation • FT Interactive CRSP Database • University of Chicago’s Center for Research in Security Prices 4-45 Databases continued Other Sources of Data Bloomberg’s Professional Financial Service • • • • • • Financial instruments and real time data access Current news Headlines Audio Television Reports Proprietary Analytical tools 4-46 The Internet and Investment Information Be alert & wary using online data • Check for reliability • Source of data • Check for clues Date of data Last update 4-47 Additional Websites Stock exchanges NYSE www.nyse.com Chicago NASDAQ www.cbot.com www.cboe.com www.nasdaq.com AMEX London www.amex.com www.londonstockexchange.com Provide information such as: Volume Historical data Trading data Bid & ask prices Stock quotes Regulatory issues 4-48 Class Project Websites Websites Comments moneycentral.msn.com/investor Information on investing, news, and financial data money.cnn.com Current information about markets and companies www.bloomberg.com Market news and data www.freerealtime.com News, information and real time quotes finance.yahoo.com Information about investing, companies and markets 4-49 Websites Comments www.thestreet.com Information and opinion about markets and companies www.business.com Business-specific search engine and business information www.businessweek.com News and business information—requires fee www.wsj.com Wall Street Journal online— requires fee www.financialtimes.com Financial Times online—most articles require fee 4-50 Websites Comments www.forbes.com Forbes online—some information requires fee www.stocksandnews.com News and commentary on stocks and markets www.moneychimp.com Stock analysis and educational information www.economy.com Various forms of economic information www.stls.frb.org St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank site—includes FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) with historical, financial and economic data on the U.S. 4-51 Websites Comments www.bigcharts.com Create stock price charts www.financewise.com Finance-only search engine www.economagic.com Directory site of economic data collections www.investorlinks.com Directory site of financerelated websites 4-52 Class Project Web Sites 4-53