Financial Statement Analysis Assoc.Prof. Oktay Taş Dr. Kaya Tokmakçıoğlu What is Financial Analysis • Financial analysis is the selection, evaluation, and interpretation of financial data and other pertinent data. • The financial analysts must determine which information is needed and how to use it. Financial Analysis-Information • Aside from financial data, other information is necessary in the prediction of future financial condition or operating performance of a firm. • Examples: gross domestic product, the consumer price index, purchasing price index, rate of inflation, and corporate specific events (e.g., mergers, patents, industry of buss.) Purpose of Analysis Financial statement analysis helps users make better decisions. Internal Users Managers Officers Internal Auditors External Users Shareholders Lenders Customers Purpose of Analysis Financial measures are often used to rank corporate performance. Example measures include: Growth in sales Return to stockholders Profit margins Determined by analyzing the financial statements. Return on equity What do we need for the Financial Statement Analysis? – – – – – Financial statements Notes to Financial Statements. The definition of accounting methods Auditing reports 5-10 years financial information Financial Statements Are Designed for Analysis Classified Financial Statements Comparative Financial Statements Consolidated Financial Statements Items with certain characteristics are grouped together. Amounts from several years appear side by side. Information for the parent and subsidiary are presented. Results in standardized, meaningful subtotals. Helps identify significant changes and trends. Presented as if the two companies are a single business unit. Tools of Analysis Dollar & Percentage Changes Trend Percentages Component Percentages Ratios Horizontal Analysis Sales Expense Net Income 2002 41,500 40,000 1,500 2001 37,850 36,900 950 Increase/(Decrease) Amount Percent 3,650 9.6% 3,100 8.4% 550 57.9% Horizontal Analysis Sales 2002 $41,500 2001 Difference $37,850 $3,650 $3,650 ÷ $37,850 = .0964, or 9.6% Dollar and Percentage Changes Dollar Change: Dollar Change = Analysis Period Amount – Base Period Amount Percentage Change: % Percent Change = Dollar Change ÷ Base Period Amount Dollar and Percentage Changes Evaluating Percentage Changes in Sales and Earnings Sales and earnings should increase at more that the rate of inflation. In measuring quarterly changes, compare to the same quarter in the previous year. Percentages may be misleading when the base amount is small. Dollar and Percentage Changes Let’s look at the asset section of Clover, Inc. comparative balance sheet and income statement for 2005 and 2004. Compute the dollar change and the percentage change for cash. Clover, Inc. Comparative Balance Sheets December 31, 2005 Assets Current assets: Cash and equivalents $ 12,000 Accounts receivable, net 60,000 Inventory 80,000 Prepaid expenses 3,000 Total current assets $ 155,000 Property and equipment: Land 40,000 Buildings and equipment, net 120,000 Total property and equipment $ 160,000 Total assets $ 315,000 * Percent rounded to one decimal point. 2004 $ 23,500 40,000 100,000 1,200 $ 164,700 40,000 85,000 $ 125,000 $ 289,700 Dollar Change Percent Change* ? ? Clover, Inc. Comparative Balance Sheets December 31, 2005 Assets Current assets: Cash and equivalents $ 12,000 Accounts receivable, net 60,000 Inventory 80,000 Prepaid expenses 3,000 $12,000 Total current assets $ 155,000– Property and equipment: Land 40,000 Buildings and equipment, net 120,000 Total property and equipment $ 160,000 Total assets $ 315,000 * Percent rounded to one decimal point. 2004 Dollar Change $ 23,500 $ (11,500) 40,000 100,000 1,200 $23,500 $ 164,700 = $(11,500) 40,000 85,000 $ 125,000 $ 289,700 Percent Change* ? Clover, Inc. Comparative Balance Sheets December 31, 2005 2004 Dollar Change Percent Change* Assets Current assets: Cash and equivalents $ 12,000 $ 23,500 $ (11,500) -48.9% Accounts receivable, net 60,000 40,000 Inventory 80,000 100,000 Prepaid expenses 3,000 1,200 ($11,500 ÷ $23,500) × 100% = 48.94% Total current assets $ 155,000 $ 164,700 Property and equipment: Land 40,000 40,000 Complete the Buildings and equipment, net 120,000 85,000 analysis for Total property and equipment $ 160,000 $ 125,000 the other Total assets $ 315,000 $ 289,700 assets. * Percent rounded to one decimal point. Clover, Inc. Comparative Balance Sheets December 31, 2005 Assets Current assets: Cash and equivalents $ 12,000 Accounts receivable, net 60,000 Inventory 80,000 Prepaid expenses 3,000 Total current assets $ 155,000 Property and equipment: Land 40,000 Buildings and equipment, net 120,000 Total property and equipment $ 160,000 Total assets $ 315,000 * Percent rounded to one decimal point. 2004 Dollar Change Percent Change* $ 23,500 $ 40,000 100,000 1,200 $ 164,700 (11,500) 20,000 (20,000) 1,800 (9,700) -48.9% 50.0% -20.0% 150.0% -5.9% 40,000 85,000 $ 125,000 $ 289,700 $ 35,000 35,000 25,300 0.0% 41.2% 28.0% 8.7% Interpretation of Items • • • • • • • Current assets-current liabilities Curent assets- plant assets Plant assets – L-T Debts Plant assets – Equity Total Debt – Equity Current Liab. – Total Sources L-T Debts – Total Sources Intrepretation of Items • • • • • • • Accounts recbl.- Accounts payable Accounts receivable – Sales Inventory – Sales Sales – COGS Sales – Gross Profit Sales – Operating Income Sales – Net Income Trend Analysis – are computed by selecting a base year whose amounts are set equal to 100%. • The amounts of each following year are expressed as a percentage of the base amount. Trend % = Any year $ ÷ Base year $ Trend Percentages Year 2000 Revenues $27,611 Cost of sales 15,318 Gross profit $12,293 1998 is the base year. 1999 $24,215 14,709 $ 9,506 What are the trend percentages? 1998 $21,718 13,049 $ 8,669 Trend Percentages Year Revenues Cost of sales Gross profit 2000 127% 117% 142% 1999 111% 113% 110% 1998 100% 100% 100% These percentages were calculated by dividing each item by the base year. Trend Analysis Trend analysis is used to reveal patterns in data covering successive periods. Trend Analysis Period Amount = Percent Base Period Amount ×100% Trend Analysis Berry Products Income Information For the Years Ended December 31, Item Revenues Cost of sales Gross profit Item Revenues Cost of sales Gross profit 2005 $ 400,000 285,000 115,000 2004 $ 355,000 250,000 105,000 2003 $ 320,000 225,000 95,000 2002 $ 290,000 198,000 92,000 2004 2004 2003 2002 2001 base period its 145%is the129% 116% so 105% 150% 118% amounts132% will equal 100%.104% 135% 124% 112% 108% (290,000 275,000) (198,000 190,000) (92,000 85,000) 100% = 105% 100% = 104% 100% = 108% 2001 $ 275,000 190,000 85,000 2001 100% 100% 100% Component Percentages Examine the relative size of each item in the financial statements by computing component (or common-sized) percentages. Component Percent = Analysis Amount Base Amount Financial Statement Balance Sheet Income Statement × 100% Base Amount Total Assets Revenues Clover, inc. Comparative Balance Sheets December 31, Complete the common-size analysis for the other assets. 2005 2004 Common-size Percents* 2005 2004 Assets Current assets: Cash and equivalents $ 12,000 $ 23,500 3.8% 8.1% Accounts receivable, net 60,000 40,000 Inventory 80,000 100,000 Prepaid expenses 3,000 1,200 ($12,000 ÷ $315,000) = 3.8% Total current assets $ 155,000×$100% 164,700 Property and equipment: ($23,500 40,000 ÷ $289,700) × 100% = 8.1% Land 40,000 Buildings and equipment, net 120,000 85,000 Total property and equipment $ 160,000 $ 125,000 Total assets $ 315,000 $ 289,700 100.0% 100.0% * Percent rounded to first decimal point. Clover, Inc. Comparative Balance Sheets December 31, 2005 Assets Current assets: Cash and equivalents $ 12,000 Accounts receivable, net 60,000 Inventory 80,000 Prepaid expenses 3,000 Total current assets $ 155,000 Property and equipment: Land 40,000 Buildings and equipment, net 120,000 Total property and equipment $ 160,000 Total assets $ 315,000 * Percent rounded to first decimal point. 2004 Common-size Percents* 2005 2004 $ 23,500 40,000 100,000 1,200 $ 164,700 3.8% 19.0% 25.4% 1.0% 49.2% 8.1% 13.8% 34.6% 0.4% 56.9% 40,000 85,000 $ 125,000 $ 289,700 12.7% 38.1% 50.8% 100.0% 13.8% 29.3% 43.1% 100.0% Clover, Inc. Comparative Balance Sheets December 31, 2005 Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity Current liabilities: Accounts payable Notes payable Total current liabilities Long-term liabilities: Bonds payable, 8% Total liabilities Shareholders' equity: Preferred stock Common stock Additional paid-in capital Total paid-in capital Retained earnings Total shareholders' equity Total liabilities and shareholders' equity * Percent rounded to first decimal point. 2004 Common-size Percents* 2005 2004 $ 67,000 $ 44,000 3,000 6,000 $ 70,000 $ 50,000 21.3% 1.0% 22.3% 15.2% 2.1% 17.3% 75,000 $ 145,000 80,000 $ 130,000 23.8% 46.1% 27.6% 44.9% 20,000 20,000 60,000 60,000 10,000 10,000 $ 90,000 $ 90,000 80,000 69,700 $ 170,000 $ 159,700 $ 315,000 $ 289,700 6.3% 19.0% 3.2% 28.5% 25.4% 53.9% 100.0% 6.9% 20.6% 3.5% 31.1% 24.1% 55.1% 100.0% Clover, Inc. Comparative Income Statements For the Years Ended December 31, Common-size Percents* 2005 2004 2005 2004 Revenues $ 520,000 $ 480,000 100.0% 100.0% Costs and expenses: Cost of sales 360,000 315,000 69.2% 65.6% Selling and admin. 128,600 126,000 24.7% 26.3% Interest expense 6,400 7,000 1.2% 1.5% Income before taxes $ 25,000 $ 32,000 4.8% 6.7% Income taxes (30%) 7,500 9,600 1.4% 2.0% Net income $ 17,500 $ 22,400 3.4% 4.7% Net income per share $ 0.79 $ 1.01 Avg. # common shares 22,200 22,200 * Rounded to first decimal point. Ratios • Ratios are simply relationships between two financial balances or financial calculations. These relationships establish our references so we can understand how well we are performing financially. Ratios also extend our traditional way of measuring financial performance; i.e. relying on financial statements. By applying ratios to a set of financial statements, we can better understand financial performance. Ratios A ratio is a simple mathematical expression of the relationship between one item and another. Along with dollar and percentage changes, trend percentages, and component percentages, ratios can be used to compare: Past performance to present performance. Other companies to your company. Why are ratios useful • Ratios standardize numbers and facilitate comparisons. • Ratios are used to highlight weaknesses and strengths. How can we use ratios? • Compare with previous ratios • Compare with standards (average is found by the academicans, analysts e.g.) • Compare with industrial average. What are the five major categories of ratios, and what questions do they answer? • Liquidity ratios: Can we make required payments? • Activity ratios Asset management: right amount of assets vs. sales? • Debt management ratios (leverage Ratios): Right mix of debt and equity? • Profitability: Do sales prices exceed unit costs, and are sales high enough as reflected in PM, ROE, and ROA? • Market value: Do investors like what they see as reflected in P/E and M/B ratios? Type of ratios • Liquidity ratios provide information on a firm's ability to meet its short-term obligations. • Activity ratios relate information on a firm's ability to manage its resources (that is, its assets) efficiently. Type of ratios • Financial leverage ratios provide information on the degree of a firm's fixed financing obligations and its ability to satisfy these financing obligations. • Profitability ratios provide information on the amount of income from each dollar of sales. Type of ratios • Return on investment ratios provide information on the amount of profit, relative to the assets employed to produce that profit. • Shareholder ratios describe the firm's financial condition in terms of amounts per share of stock. Liquidity Ratios Liquidity Ratios help us understand if we can meet our obligations over the short-run. Higher liquidity levels indicate that we can easily meet our current obligations. We can use several types of ratios to monitor liquidity. Let’s see if they can cover their shortterm obligations … Liquidity ratios • The current ratio is the ratio of current assets to current liabilities; indicates a firm's ability to satisfy its current liabilities with its current assets. • Quick ratio is the ratio of quick assets (generally current assets less inventory) to current liabilities; indicates a firm's ability to satisfy current liabilities with its most liquid assets. Current ratio current assets Current ratio= current liabilities Example: If current assets are $5 million and current liabilities are $2 million, Current ratio = $5 / $2 = 2.5 Comments on current ratio Current ratio 2003 2002 2001 Ind. 2.34x 1.20x 2.30x 2.70x • Expected to improve but still below the industry average. • Liquidity position is weak. Quick ratio current assets inventory Quick ratio current liabilities Also referred to as the acid test ratio or liquidity ratio Liquidity ratios: example Suppose the firm has the following: Cash Accounts receivables Inventory Accounts payable a. b. $ 5 16 20 12 What is the firm’s current ratio? What is the firm’s quick ratio? Liquidity ratios: example, cont. Cash $ 5 Accounts receivables 16 Inventory 20 Accounts payable 12 a. What is the firm’s current ratio? Current ratio = ($5 + 16 + 20) / $12 = 3.42 b.What is the firm’s quick ratio? Quick ratio = ($5 + 16) / $12 = 1.75 Nike Working capital, 2002, in millions Cash and cash equivalents Receivables $ 575.5 1,621.1 Inventory Other Total current assets 1,373.8 275.8 $4,157.7 Accounts payable Debts due $ 504.4 480.5 Other Total current liabilities 851.3 $1,836.2 Source: Nike Annual Reports, various years Problem • Suppose a company has a current ratio of 1.5 and a quick ratio of 0.8. If its current liabilities are $2 million, what is its inventory? Activity ratios But are they any good at this stuff? Activity ratios • Accounts receivable turnover is the ratio of net credit sales to accounts receivable. • Indicates how many times in the period credit sales have been created and collected. A/R Turnover Ratio • Accounts Receivable Turnover measures the number of times we were able to convert our receivables over into cash. Higher turnover ratios are desirable. •Net Sales / Average Accounts Receivable •Avrg. accounts receivable = (Beg.A/R + End. A/R) / 2 If there is only one year of information can be calculated as follows: A/R turnover = credit sales ..times accounts receivable s A/R Turnover Ratio • EXAMPLE — Sales are $ 480,000, the average receivable balance during the year was $ 40,000 and we have a $ 20,000 allowance for sales returns. Accounts Receivable Turnover is ($ 480,000 - $ 20,000) / $ 40,000 or 11.5. We were able to turn our receivables over 11.5 times during the year. • NOTE — We are assuming that all of our sales are credit sales; i.e. we do not have any significant cash sales. Number of Days in Accounts Receivable • The Number of Days in Accounts Receivable is the average length of time required to collect our receivables. A low number of days is desirable. Days in Accounts Receivable is calculated as follows: 365 or 360 / Accounts Receivable Turnover Ratio • EXAMPLE — If we refer to our previous example and we base our calculation on the full calendar year, we would require 32 days on average to collect our receivables. 365 / 11.5 = 32 days. Inventory Turnover Ratio •Inventory Turnover is similar to accounts receivable turnover. We are measuring how many times did we turn our inventory over during the year. Higher turnover rates are desirable. A high turnover rate implies that management does not hold onto excess inventories and our inventories are highly marketable. Inventory Turnover is calculated as follows: Cost of Sales / Average Inventory Avrg.Inventory = (Beg.Inventory + End.Inventory) / 2 EXAMPLE — Cost of Sales were $ 192,000 and the average inventory balance during the year was $ 120,000. The Inventory Turnover Rate is 1.6 or we were able to turn our inventory over 1.6 times during the year. Inventory Turnover Ratio • Days in Inventory is the average number of days we held our inventory before a sale. A low number of inventory days is desirable. A high number of days implies that management is unable to sell existing inventory stocks. Days in Inventory is calculated as follows: • Inv.Turnover Ratio=365 or 360 / Inventory Turnover EXAMPLE — If we refer back to the previous example and we use the entire calendar year for measuring inventory, then on average we are holding our inventories 228 days before a sale. 365 / 1.6 = 228 days. Activity ratios, continued. • Total asset turnover is the ratio of sales to total assets; indicates the extent that the investment in total assets results in sales. • Fixed asset turnover is the ratio of sales to fixed assets; indicates the ability of the firm's management to put the fixed assets to work to generate sales. Capital Turnover Capital Turnover measures our ability to turn capital over into sales. Remember, we have two sources of capital: Debt and Equity. Capital Turnover is calculated as follows: Net Sales / Interest Bearing Debt + Shareholders Equity EXAMPLE — Net Sales are $ 460,000, we have $ 50,000 in Debt and $ 200,000 of Equity. Capital Turnover is $ 460,000 / ($ 50,000 + $ 200,000) = 1.84. For each $ 1.00 of capital invested (both debt and equity), we are able to generate $ 1.84 in sales. Turnover examples Company Nike (NKE) Total asset turnover for 2001 1.5355 times Skechers (SKX) 2.3569 times Timberland (TBO) 2.3456 times Source: Companies’ respective annual reports The operating cycle • The operating cycle is the length of time it takes to turn the investment of cash in inventory back into cash. • The longer the operating cycle, the greater the need for liquid assets. • The operating cycle is the sum of: Number of days of inventory Number of days of receivables The operating cycle • Now that we have calculated the number of days for receivables and the number of days for inventory, we can estimate our operating cycle. Operating Cycle = Number of Days in Receivables + Number of Days in Inventory. In our previous examples, this would be 32 + 228 = 260 days. So on average, it takes us 260 days to generate cash from our current assets. • If we look back at our Current Ratio, we found that we had 2.5 times more current assets than current liabilities. We now want to compare our Current Ratio to our Operating Cycle. • Our turnover within the Operating Cycle is 365 / 260 or 1.40. This is lower than our Current Ratio of 2.5. This indicates that we have additional assets to cover the turnover of current assets into cash. If our current ratio were below that of the Operating Cycle Turnover Rate, this would imply that we do not have sufficient current assets to cover current liabilities within the Operating Cycle. We may have to borrow short-term to pay our expenses. The number of days inventory • The number of days inventory = inventory / avg. day’s cost of goods sold • This the number of days a company could go without adding inventory until they deplete inventory. The number of days receivable • The number of days receivable = accounts receivable / average day’s credit • This is the number of days it takes to collect on credit accounts. Net operating cycle • The net operating cycle is the number of days it takes to turn the investment in inventory into cash, considering that purchases are acquired with credit. • The number of days payables = accounts payable / average day’s purchases Net operating cycle, continued + Number of days inventory Number of days receivable Number of days payables Net operating cycle Example Number of days … Inventory Receivables Payables Net operating cycle General Electric 2002 41.4 days 148.9 days 93.7 days 96.6 days Financial leverage ratios But can they handle their debt load? Leverage Ratios measure the use of debt and equity for financing of assets. Financial leverage ratios • The debt to assets ratio indicates the proportion of assets that are financed with debt (both short-term and long-term debt). • The debt to equity ratio indicates the relative uses of debt and equity as sources of capital to finance the firm's assets, evaluated using book values of the capital sources. Debt to Equity Ratios • Debt to Equity is the ratio of Total Debt to Total Equity. It compares the funds provided by creditors to the funds provided by shareholders. As more debt is used, the Debt to Equity Ratio will increase. Since we incur more fixed interest obligations with debt, risk increases. On the other hand, the use of debt can help improve earnings since we get to deduct interest expense on the tax return. So we want to balance the use of debt and equity such that we maximize our profits, but at the same time manage our risk. The Debt to Equity Ratio is calculated as follows: • Total Liabilities / Shareholders Equity Debt to Equity Ratios • Total Liabilities / Shareholders Equity • EXAMPLE — We have total liabilities of $ 75,000 and total shareholders equity of $ 200,000. The Debt to Equity Ratio is 37.5%, $ 75,000 / $ 200,000 = .375. When compared to our equity resources, 37.5% of our resources are in the form of debt. • KEY POINT — As a general rule, it is advantageous to increase our use of debt (trading on the equity) if earnings from borrowed funds exceeds the costs of borrowing. Times Interest Earned • Times Interest Earned is the number of times our earnings (before interest and taxes) covers our interest expense. It represents our margin of safety in making fixed interest payments. A high ratio is desirable from both creditors and management. Times Interest Earned is calculated as follows: • Earnings Before Interest and Taxes / Interest Expense Times Interest Earned • The interest coverage ratio indicates the firm's ability to satisfy interest obligations on its debt. • Also known as the times-interest-earned ratio. EBIT Interest coverage = interest expense Financial leverage examples Debt-to-assets Nike (NKE) 40.41% July,2002 Skechers (SKX) 51.16% December, 2001 Timberland 40.47% (TBL) December, 2001 Source: Data from Yahoo! Finance Debt-toequity 67.82% 104.75% 67.97% Profitability ratios But can they make any money doing this stuff? Gross profit margin • Gross profit margin: the ratio of gross profit to sales. • Indicates how much of every dollar of sales is left after costs of goods sold. Gross profit margin gross profit = sales Operating profit margin • Operating profit margin: the ratio of operating profit (EBIT) to sales. • Indicates how much of each dollar of sales is left over after operating expenses. operating profit Operating profit margin = sales Net profit margin • Net profit margin: the ratio of net income to sales. • Indicates how much of each dollar of sales is left over after all expenses are paid. Net profit margin net profit = sales IBM’s 2002 Income statement in millions Revenues Less: Total costs Gross profit Less: Operating expenses Operating income Add: Other income Less: Interest expense Income before income taxes Less: Provision for income taxes Net income Source: IBM 2002 Annual Report $88,396 55,972 $32,424 20,790 $11,634 617 717 $11,534 3,441 $8,093 Profitability ratios: IBM in 2002 Gross profit margin = $32,424 / $88,396 Operating profit margin = $12,251 / $88,396 Net profit margin = $8,093 / $88,396 = = 36.68% = 13.86% 9.16% K Mart Income Statement, 1/31/2001 in millions Net revenues $37,028 Less: Cost of revenues 29,658 Gross profit $7,370 Less: Operating expenses 7,461 Operating income -$91 Less: Interest expense 287 Add: Taxes (carryover) 134 Net income -$244 Source: Kmart 10-K Report Return on investment Hey, what’s the bottom line? Return on investment ratios • Basic earning power ratio is a measure of the operating income resulting from the firm's investment in total assets. Basic earning power = EBIT / Total assets • Return on assets indicates the firm's net profit generated per dollar invested in total assets. Return on assets = Net profit / Total assets Return on investment • Return on equity is the profit generated per dollar of shareholders' investment (i.e., shareholders' equity). net profit Return on equity = book value of equity Coming attractions • Return on investment ratios & the Du Pont system • Shareholder ratios • Common size analysis • Effective use of financial analysis Market Value (Shareholder) Ratios The view of the firm from the perspective of the owners, investor and general public … Market Value (Shareholder) Ratios These ratios attempt to measure the economic status of the organization within the marketplace. Investors use these ratios to evaluate and monitor the progress of their investments. Market Value Ratios • Earnings per share (EPS) is the amount of income earned during a period per share of common stock. • Basic EPS & Diluted EPS • Book value equity per share is the amount of the book value of common equity per share of stock. • The price-earnings ratio (P/E or PE ratio) is the ratio of the price per share of stock to the earnings per share of stock. Market Value Ratios, continued • Dividends per share (DPS) is the dollar amount of cash dividends paid during a period, per share of common stock. • The dividend payout ratio is the ratio of cash dividends paid to earnings for a period. Dividend payout ratio = DPS / EPS Earning Per Share • Growth in earnings is often monitored with Earnings per Share (EPS). The EPS expresses the earnings of a company on a "per share" basis. A high EPS in comparison to other competing firms is desirable. The EPS is calculated as: • Earnings Available to Common Shareholders / Number of Common Shares Outstanding • EXAMPLE — Earnings are $ 100,000 and preferred stock dividends of $ 20,000 need to be paid. There are a total of 80,000 common shares outstanding. Earnings per Share (EPS) is ($ 100,000 - $ 20,000) / 80,000 shares outstanding or $ 1.00 per share. Price to Earnings (P/E) • The relationship of the price of the stock in relation to EPS is expressed as the Price to Earnings Ratio or P / E Ratio. Investors often refer to the P / E Ratio as a rough indicator of value for a company. A high P / E Ratio would imply that investors are very optimistic (bullish) about the future of the company since the price (which reflects market value) is selling for well above current earnings. A low P / E Ratio would imply that investors view the company's future as poor and thus, the price the company sells for is relatively low when compared to its earnings. The P / E Ratio is calculated as follows: Price to Earnings (P/E) • Price of Stock / Earnings per Share * • * Earnings per Share are fully diluted to reflect the conversion of securities into common stock. • EXAMPLE — Earnings per share is $ 3.00 and the stock is selling for $ 36.00 per share. The P / E Ratio is $ 36 / $ 3 or 12. The company is selling for 12 times earnings. Price to Book Value (P/B) • Book Value per Share expresses the total net assets of a business on a per share basis. This allows us to compare the book values of a business to the stock price and gauge differences in valuations. Net Assets available to shareholders can be calculated as Total Equity less Preferred Equity. Book Value per Share is calculated as follows: • Net Assets Available to Common Shareholders * / Outstanding Common Shares • * Calculated as Total Equity less Preferred Equity. • EXAMPLE — Total Equity is $ 5,000,000 including $ 400,000 of preferred equity. The total number of common shares outstanding is 80,000 shares. Book Value per Share is ($ 5,000,000 - $ 400,000) / 80,000 or $ 57.50 Dividend Yield • The percentage of dividends paid to shareholders in relation to the price of the stock is called the Dividend Yield. For investors interested in a source of income, the dividend yield is important since it gives the investor an indication of how much dividends are paid by the company. Dividend Yield is calculated as follows: • Dividends per Share / Price of Stock • EXAMPLE — Dividends per share are $ 2.10 and the price of the stock is $ 30.00 per share. The Dividend Yield is $ 2.10 / $ 30.00 or 7% The DuPont system • The Du Pont system was developed by E.I. du Pont Nemours. • The system is a method of decomposing the return ratios into their profit margin and turnover components. e.g., Return = total asset x net profit on assets turnover margin A further breakdown • Return on equity can be broken down into the return on assets and the equity multiplier. • The greater the financial leverage, the greater the equity multiplier. return on = return on × equity equity assets multiplier net income net income assets = × equity assets equity Du Pont system: Return on assets Return on assets Net profit / Total assets Net profit margin Net profit / Sales Operating profit margin Operating profit / Sales or EBIT / Sales Earnings retention (1 - tax rate) Interest burden Earnings before taxes / Operating profit or EBT/EBIT Total asset turnover Total assets / Net profit Du Pont system: Return on equity Return on equity Net profit / Shareholders' equity Net profit margin Net profit / Sales Operating profit margin Operating profit / Sales or EBIT / Sales Earnings retention (1 - tax rate) Interest burden Earnings before taxes / Operating profit or EBT / EBIT Total asset turnover Total assets / Net profit Equity multiplier Total assets / Shareholders' equity Kmart and the Du Pont system 8% 3.0 6% 2.5 4% 2.0 Number of 1.5 times 2% Return 0% -2% 1.0 -4% Return on assets Net profit margin Total asset turnover -6% -8% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Source: Kmart Inc., Annual Reports 0.5 0.0 Wal-Mart: ROA & ROE 30% 25% ROA ROE 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Source: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Annual Reports Wal-Mart DuPont, 1991-2002 20% 3,5 3 2,5 2 times 1,5 1 0,5 0 15% return and 10% margin 5% Return on assets Total asset turnover 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 0% Net profit margin Source: Wal-Mart Annual Reports, various years Problems • Suppose a company has a return on equity of 10% and a return on assets of 5%. What is its debt-to-equity ratio? • If a company has a return on assets of 5% and a total asset turnover of 5 times, what is its net profit margin? An example Time to see if you can really do this stuff. For a selected company … • Calculate the following ratios: Current ratio Debt-to-equity ratio Total asset turnover Net profit margin Equity multiplier Return on equity • and turnover components. Common size analysis Common size analysis • Common size analysis is the analysis of financial statement items through comparisons among financial statement or market data. • Common size analysis compares each item in a financial statement with a benchmark item. • Common size analysis is useful in analyzing trends in profitability and trends in investments and financing activity. Common size analysis, continued. • For the income statement, the benchmark is sales; each item in the income statement is restated as a percentage of sales. • For the balance sheet, the benchmark is total assets; each item in the balance sheet is restated as a percentage of total assets. Common size example: Toys R Us 100% Assets 75% Other Intangibles Plant and equipment Current assets 50% 25% 0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Source: Toys R Us Annual Reports Common size example: Toys R Us Liabilities & equity 100% 75% Shareholders' equity 50% Other long-term liabilities Long-term debt 25% Deferred taxes Current liabilities 0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Source: Toys R Us Annual Reports Effective use of financial analysis Now what do we do with this stuff? Uses of financial analysis • Valuation • Use financial relations to predict future cash flows • Determine creditworthiness • Rating services (e.g., Moody’s) • Bankruptcy prediction • Develop a statistical model that predicts bankruptcy on the basis of financial characteristics Case in point IMC Global IMC Global • Industry: Agricultural chemicals • Largest of the few companies in the industry • Chemical prices are cyclical and sensitive to agricultural economy and world trade IMC Global: Returns 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% ROE ROA 1997 1998 1999 2000 Source: IMC Global 10-K Reports 2001 2002 IMC Global: Profit margins 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% Operating profit margin Net profit margin 1997 1998 1999 2000 Source: IMC Global 10-K Reports 2001 2002 IMC Global: Cash flows 600 400 200 0 CFO CFI CFF -200 -400 -600 -800 1997 1998 1999 2000 Source: IMC Global 10-K Reports 2001 2002 IMC Global: Financial leverage 100% Debt as a % of assets 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1993 1995 1997 Source: IMC Global 10-K Reports 1999 2001 IMC Global: Additional considerations • IMC Global is in a cyclical industry • IMC Global has many environmental liabilities that are not shown in the balance sheet • The reaction of competitors/industry to slump in phosphate prices affects the firm Problems and dilemmas There had to be a catch … Problems and dilemmas • Using accounting information • historical data [book v. market value] • flexibility regarding methods of accounting [i.e., the possibility of earnings management] • “fuzzy” items [i.e., Enron, Enron, Enron] • the possibility of earnings manipulation [Enron, Sunbeam, Waste Management …] Problems and Dilemmas, continued • Selecting a benchmark • Financial ratios are most useful when compared with ratios of similar companies (e.g., by industry). • It is difficult to choose comparison firms or to determine the industry. Shoe companies Net profit margin 1997-2002 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Nike Reebok Skechers 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Source: Companies’ annual reports, various years Problems and dilemmas, continued. • Selecting and interpreting ratios • A single ratio is not indicative of a “good” or “bad” firm. • Some ratios are not applicable to some firms. • Some ratios don’t make sense in certain circumstance. Forecasting with financial ratios • Financial ratios are often used to determine a trend over time, which may then be used to develop expectations about the future. • It is important to understand the accounting numbers to adequately forecast based on historical trends. Wal-Mart Sales, 1971-2002 Sales $250,000 in millions $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 Fiscal year Source: Wal-Mart Annual Reports, various years 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 $0 Enron Sales, 1991-2000 $120 $100 $80 Revenues $60 (in billions) $40 $20 $0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Fiscal year Source: Enron 10-K Reports, various years Matrix, Inc. 2005 Use this informatio n to calculate the liquidity ratios for Matrix, Cash Accounts receivable, net Beginning of year End of year Inventory Beginning of year End of year Total current assets Total current liabilities Total liabilities Total assets Beginning of year End of year Revenues $ 30,000 17,000 20,000 10,000 15,000 65,000 42,000 103,917 300,000 346,390 494,000 Working Capital Working capital is the excess of current assets over current liabilities. 12/31/05 Current assets Current liabilities Working capital $ 65,000 (42,000) $ 23,000 Current Ratio This ratio measures the short-term debt-paying ability of the company. Current Current Assets = Ratio Current Liabilities Current = Ratio $65,000 $42,000 = 1.55 : 1 Quick Ratio Quick Ratio = Quick Assets Current Liabilities Quick assets are cash, marketable securities, and receivables. This ratio is like the current ratio but excludes current assets such as inventories that may be difficult to quickly convert into cash. Quick Ratio Quick Ratio Quick Ratio Quick Assets Current Liabilities = = $50,000 $42,000 This ratio is like the current ratio but excludes current assets such as inventories that may be difficult to quickly convert into cash. = 1.19 : 1 Debt Ratio A measure of creditor’s long-term risk. The smaller the percentage of assets that are financed by debt, the smaller the risk for creditors. Debt Debt Ratio Ratio == Total Total Liabilities Liabilities ÷ ÷ Total Total Assets Assets = $103,917 ÷ = 30.00% $346,390 Uses and Limitations of Financial Ratios Uses Limitations Ratios help users understand financial relationships. Management may enter into transactions merely to improve the ratios. Ratios provide for quick comparison of companies. Ratios do not help with analysis of the company's progress toward nonfinancial goals. Measures of Profitability An income statement can be prepared in either a multiple-step or single-step format. The single-step format is simpler. The multiple-step format provides more detailed information. Income Statement (Multiple-Step) Proper Heading { { Gross Margin Operating Expenses Nonoperating Items { Remember to compute EPS. { Martin Company Income Statement For the Year Ended 12/31/05 Sales, net Cost of goods sold Gross margin Operating expenses: Selling expenses General & Admin. Depreciation Income from Operations Other revenues & gains: Interest income Gain Other expenses: Interest Loss Income before taxes Income taxes Net income $ $ $ $ $ 785,250 351,800 433,450 $ 293,350 140,100 197,350 78,500 17,500 62,187 24,600 86,787 27,000 9,000 $ $ (36,000) 190,887 62,500 128,387 Income Statement (Single-Step) { Proper Heading Revenues & Gains Expenses & Losses Remember to compute EPS. { { Martin Company Income Statement For the Year Ended 12/31/05 Revenues and gains: Sales, net Interest income Gain on sale of plant assets Total revenues and gains Expenses and losses: Cost of goods sold Selling Expenses General and Admin. Exp. Depreciation Interest Income taxes Loss: sale of investment Total expenses & losses Operating income $ $ $ 785,250 62,187 24,600 872,037 $ 743,650 128,387 351,800 197,350 78,500 17,500 27,000 62,500 9,000 Matrix, Inc. 2005 Use this information to calculate the profitability ratios for Matrix, Inc. Number of common shares outstanding all of 2005 Net income Shareholders' equity Beginning of year End of year Revenues Cost of sales Total assets Beginning of year End of year $ 27,400 53,690 180,000 234,390 494,000 140,000 300,000 346,390 Return On Assets (ROA) This ratio is generally considered the best overall measure of a company’s profitability. ROA = Operating income = $ = 53,690 16.61% ÷ Average total assets ÷ ($300,000 + $346,390) ÷ 2 Return On Equity (ROE) This measure indicates how well the company employed the owners’ investments to earn income. ROE Operating = income = $ 53,690 = 25.91% Average total stockholders' ÷ equity ÷ ($180,000 + $234,390) ÷ 2 More issues regarding ratios • Different operating and accounting practices can distort comparisons. • Sometimes it is hard to tell if a ratio is “good” or “bad”. • Difficult to tell whether a company is, on balance, in strong or weak position. Qualitative factors to be considered when evaluating a company’s future financial performance • Are the firm’s revenues tied to 1 key customer, product, or supplier? • What percentage of the firm’s business is generated overseas? • Competition • Future prospects • Legal and regulatory environment Objective 2 Perform a vertical analysis of financial statements. Vertical Analysis... – compares each item in a financial statement to a base number set to 100%. • Every item on the financial statement is then reported as a percentage of that base. Vertical Analysis Revenues Cost of sales Gross profit Total operating expenses Operating income Other income Income before taxes Income taxes Net income 1999 $38,303 19,688 $18,615 13,209 $ 5,406 2,187 $ 7,593 2,827 $ 4,766 % 100.0 51.4 48.6 34.5 14.1 5.7 19.8 7.4 12.4 Vertical Analysis Assets Current assets: Cash Receivables net Inventories Prepaid expenses Total current assets Plant and equipment, net Other assets Total assets 1999 $ 1,816 10,438 6,151 3,526 $21,931 6,847 9,997 $38,775 % 4.7 26.9 15.9 9.1 56.6 17.7 25.7 100.0 Objective 3 Prepare common-size financial statements. Common-size Statements • On the income statement, each item is expressed as a percentage of net sales. • On the balance sheet, the common size is the total on each side of the accounting equation. • Common-size statements are used to compare one company to other companies, and to the industry average. Benchmarking Percent of Net Sales Lucent Technologies MCI 10,8% 12,4% 8,0% 7,4% 43,0% 51,4% 28,8% 38,2% Cost of goods sold Income tax Operating expenses Net income Objective 4 Compute the standard financial ratios. Ratio Classification 1 Measuring ability to pay current liabilities 2 Measuring ability to sell inventory and collect receivables 3 Measuring ability to pay short-term and long-term debt 4 Measuring profitability 5 Analyzing stock as an investment Ratio Classification Liquidity ratios: Mesuring ability to pay current liabilities Activity ratios: Measuring ability to sell inventory and collect receivables Financial leverage ratios: Measuring ability to pay short-term and long-term debt Profitability ratios: Measuring profitability of the bussines. Palisades Furniture Example Net sales (Year 2002) Cost of goods sold Gross profit Total operating expenses Operating income Interest revenue Interest expense Income before taxes Income taxes Net income $858,000 513,000 $345,000 244,000 $101,000 4,000 (24,000) $ 81,000 33,000 $ 48,000 Palisades Furniture Example Assets 20x2 20x1 Current assets: Cash $ 29,000 $ 32,000 Receivables net 114,000 85,000 Inventories 113,000 111,000 Prepaid expenses 6,000 8,000 Total current assets $262,000 $236,000 Long-term investments 18,000 9,000 Plant and equipment, net 507,000 399,000 Total assets $787,000 $644,000 Palisades Furniture Example Liabilities Current liabilities: Notes payable Accounts payable Accrued liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities 20x2 $ 42,000 73,000 27,000 $142,000 289,000 $431,000 20x1 $ 27,000 68,000 31,000 $126,000 198,000 $324,000 Palisades Furniture Example Stockholders’ Equity Common stock, no par Retained earnings Total stockholders’ equity Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity 20x2 $186,000 170,000 $356,000 20x1 $186,000 134,000 $320,000 $787,000 $644,000 Measuring Ability to Pay Current Liabilities The current ratio measures the company’s ability to pay current liabilities with current assets. Current ratio = Total current assets ÷ Total current liabilities Measuring Ability to Pay Current Liabilities • • • • • Palisades’ current ratio: 20x1: $236,000 ÷ $126,000 = 1.87 20x2: $262,000 ÷ $142,000 = 1.85 The industry average is 1.80. The current ratio decreased slightly during 20x2. Measuring Ability to Pay Current Liabilities The acid-test ratio shows the company’s ability to pay all current liabilities if they come due immediately. Acid-test ratio = (Cash + Short-term investments + Net current receivables) ÷ Total current liabilities Measuring Ability to Pay Current Liabilities • • • • • Palisades’ acid-test ratio: 20x1: ($32,000 + $85,000) ÷ $126,000 = .93 20x2: ($29,000 + $114,000) ÷ $142,000 = 1.01 The industry average is .60. The company’s acid-test ratio improved considerably during 20x2. Measuring Ability to Sell Inventory Inventory turnover is a measure of the number of times the average level of inventory is sold during a year. Inventory turnover = Cost of goods sold ÷ Average inventory Measuring Ability to Sell Inventory • • • • Palisades’ inventory turnover: 20x2: $513,000 ÷ $112,000 = 4.58 The industry average is 2.70. A high number indicates an ability to quickly sell inventory. Measuring Ability to Collect Receivables Accounts receivable turnover measures a company’s ability to collect cash from credit customers. Accounts receivable turnover = Net credit sales ÷ Average accounts receivable Measuring Ability to Collect Receivables • • • • Palisades’ accounts receivable turnover: 20x2: $858,000 ÷ $99,500 = 8.62 times The industry average is 22.2 times. Palisades’ receivable turnover is much lower than the industry average. • The company is a home-town store that sells to local people who tend to pay their bills over a lengthy period of time. Measuring Ability to Collect Receivables Days’ sales in receivable ratio measures how many day’s sales remain in Accounts Receivable. One day’s sales = Net sales ÷ 365 days Days’ sales in Accounts Receivable = Average net Accounts Receivable ÷ One day’s sales Measuring Ability to Collect Receivables • Palisades’ days’ sales in Accounts Receivable for 20x2: • One day’s sales: • $858,000 ÷ 365 = $2,351 • Days’ sales in Accounts Receivable: • $99,500 ÷ $2,351 = 42 days • The industry average is 16 days. Measuring Ability to Pay Debt The debt ratio indicates the proportion of assets financed with debt. Total liabilities ÷ Total assets Measuring Ability to Pay Debt • • • • • Palisades’ debt ratio: 20x1: $324,000 ÷ $644,000 = 0.50 20x2: $431,000 ÷ $787,000 = 0.55 The industry average is 0.61. Palisades Furniture expanded operations during 20x2 by financing through borrowing. Measuring Ability to Pay Debt Times-interest-earned ratio measures the number of times operating income can cover interest expense. Times-interest-earned = Income from operations ÷ Interest expense Measuring Ability to Pay Debt • • • • • Palisades’ times-interest-earned ratio: 20x1: $ 57,000 ÷ $14,000 = 4.07 20x2: $101,000 ÷ $24,000 = 4.21 The industry average is 2.00. The company’s times-interest-earned ratio increased in 20x2. • This is a favorable sign. Measuring Profitability Rate of return on net sales shows the percentage of each sales dollar earned as net income. Rate of return on net sales = Net income ÷ Net sales Measuring Profitability • • • • • Palisades’ rate of return on sales: 20x1: $26,000 ÷ $803,000 = 0.032 20x2: $48,000 ÷ $858,000 = 0.056 The industry average is 0.008. The increase is significant in itself and also because it is much better than the industry average. Measuring Profitability Rate of return on total assets measures how profitably a company uses its assets. Rate of return on total assets = (Net income + interest expense) ÷ Average total assets Measuring Profitability • Palisades’ rate of return on total assets for 20x2: • ($48,000 + $24,000) ÷ $715,500 = 0.101 • The industry average is 0.049. • How does Palisades compare to the industry? • Very favorably. Measuring Profitability Common equity includes additional paid-in capital on common stock and retained earnings. Rate of return on common stockholders’ equity = (Net income – preferred dividends) ÷ Average common stockholders’ equity Measuring Profitability • Palisades’ rate of return on common stockholders’ equity for 20x2: • ($48,000 – $0) ÷ $338,000 = 0.142 • The industry average is 0.093. • Why is this ratio larger than the return on total assets (.101)? • Because Palisades uses leverage. Measuring Profitability Earnings per share of common stock = (Net income – Preferred dividends) ÷ Number of shares of common stock outstanding Measuring Profitability • • • • Palisades’ earnings per share: 20x1: ($26,000 – $0) ÷ 10,000 = $2.60 20x2: ($48,000 – $0) ÷ 10,000 = $4.80 This large increase in EPS is considered very unusual. Analyzing Stock as an Investment • Price/earning ratio is the ratio of market price per share to earnings per share. • 20x1: $35 ÷ $2.60 = 13.5 • 20x2: $50 ÷ $4.80 = 10.4 • Given Palisades Furniture’s 20x2 P/E ratio of 10.4, we would say that the company’s stock is selling at 10.4 times earnings. Analyzing Stock as an Investment Dividend yield shows the percentage of a stock’s market value returned as dividends to stockholders each period. Dividend per share of common (or preferred) stock ÷ Market price per share of common (or preferred) stock Analyzing Stock as an Investment • • • • Dividend yield on Palisades’ common stock: 20x1: $1.00 ÷ $35.00 = .029 (2.9%) 20x2: $1.20 ÷ $50.00 = .024 (2.4%) An investor who buys Palisades Furniture common stock for $50 can expect to receive 2.4% of the investment annually in the form of cash dividends. Analyzing Stock as an Investment Book value per share of common stock = (Total stockholders’ equity – Preferred equity) ÷ Number of shares of common stock outstanding Analyzing Stock as an Investment • Book value per share of palisades’ common stock: • 20x1: ($320,000 – $0) ÷ 10,000 = $32.00 • 20x2: ($356,000 – $0) ÷ 10,000 = $35.60 • Book value bears no relationship to market value. Objective 5 Use ratios in decision making. Limitations of Financial Analysis • Business decisions are made in a world of uncertainty. • No single ratio or one-year figure should be relied upon to provide an assessment of a company’s performance. Objective 6 Measure economic value added. Economic Value Added (EVA®) • Economic value added (EVA®) combines accounting income and corporate finance to measure whether the company’s operations have increased stockholder wealth. • EVA® = Net income + Interest expense – Capital charge