Chapter 9 Debt Instruments Quantitative Issues Pricing a Bond T coupon PAR P0 t T t 1 1 Y 1 Y where P0 = price of bond today T = maturity of the bond Y = appropriate discount rate PAR = par or face value of the bond Bond Prices with Semiannual Payments coupon 2T PAR 2 P0 t t 1 Y Y 2T 1 1 2 2 • • • Divide coupon payment by two Multiply maturity of bond by two. Divide discount rate by two Bond Yields & Rates • • • • • • Coupon rate (nominal yield) Current yield (coupon / price) Yield to maturity (YTM = IRR) Realized compound yield to maturity (RCYTM) Yield to First (earliest) Call Realized return ABC Example • • • • • Coupon: Par Value: Maturity: Callable: Price: $40 per year $1,000 6 years in 3 years @ $1040 $950 Coupon Rate • Stated dollar return of fixed-income investment • Equals annual interest payments divided by par value Current Yield • Bond’s coupon rate divided by current market price OR • Stock’s indicated dividend rate divided by per-share price Yield to Maturity • Measure of bond yield that takes into account capital gain or loss, as well as coupon payments • Discount rate that would make present value of bond’s cash flows (payments plus face value at maturity) equal purchase price of bond T P0 t 1 C 1 Y t PAR 1 Y T where C = the coupon payment Yield Relationships Yield to Call P0 Tc coupon 1 Y t 1 c t call price 1 Yc T 40 40 40 1040 950 2 3 1 Yc 1 Yc 1 Yc 1 Yc 3 where Tc = time to earliest call Yc = yield to first call • Almost identical to YTM, except – Call price replaces par value – Time to call replaces term to maturity Realized Rate (Yield) • Ex post rate of return or yield from investment (internal rate of return) where TH = holding period YH = realized rate of return Bond Price Volatility • Bond prices and interest rates inversely related • Maturity effect: longer a bond’s term to maturity, greater percentage change in price for given change in interest rates • Coupon effect: lower a bond’s coupon rate, greater percentage change in price for given change in interest rates • Yield-to-maturity effect: For given change in interest rates, bonds with lower YTMs have greater percentage price changes than bonds with higher YTMs – all other things equal Which Bond’s Price Is Most Volatile? • Bond X: 25 years to maturity, 10% coupon rate, and a 6% YTM • Bond Y: 10 years to maturity, 2% coupon rate, and a 6% YTM • Bond Z: 17.5 years to maturity, 6% coupon rate, and a 4% YTM Answer • Based on maturity effect, it would be X • Based on coupon effect, it would be Y • Based on yield-to-maturity effect, it would be Z Duration • Weighted average amount of time until present value of bond’s purchase price repaid to the investor • Based on time-weighted present value of bond’s principal and interest payments divided by the bond’s price • Used as measure of bond’s sensitivity to interest rate changes Formula for Duration T D t x Ct 1 Y t 1 t P0 Where P0 = price of the bond today Y = yield to maturity Ct = cash flow in period t (coupon, principal or both) T = term to maturity Equation 9-6 • Insert Equation 1 Y 1 Y T C Y D T Y C 1 Y 1 Y • Where Y = yield to maturity C = coupon rate T = term to maturity Uses of Duration • Price volatility index – Larger duration statistic, more volatile price of bond • Immunization – Interest rate risk minimized on bond portfolio by maintaining portfolio with duration equal to investor’s planning horizon Major Characteristics of Duration • Duration of zero-coupon bond equal to term to maturity • Duration of coupon bond always less than term to maturity • Inverse relationship between coupon rate and duration (continued) Major Characteristics of Duration (continued) • Inverse relationship between yield to maturity and duration • Direct relationship between maturity and duration Modified Duration • Adjusted measure of duration used to estimate a bond’s interest rate sensitivity D* = D (1 + YTM) % Chg in price of bond = –D x % Chg in YTM % Chg in price of bond = – D* x [Chg in YTM] Convexity Portfolio Duration • Market value weighted average of durations of individual securities in the portfolio Components of Interest Rate Risk • Price Risk • Reinvestment Rate Risk Price Risk • Risk of existing bond’s price changing in response to unknown future interest rate changes – If rates increase, bond’s price decreases – If rates decrease, bond’s price increases Reinvestment Rate Risk • Risk associated with reinvesting coupon payments at unknown future interest rates – If rates increase, coupons are reinvested at higher rates than previously expected – If rates decrease, coupons are reinvested at lower rates than previously expected Immunizing a Portfolio • If a single time horizon goal, purchasing zero-coupon bond whose maturity corresponds with planning horizon • If multiple goals, purchasing series of zero-coupon bonds whose maturities correspond with multiple planning horizons (continued) Immunizing a Portfolio (continued) • Assembling and managing bond portfolio whose duration is kept equal to planning horizon Note: this strategy involves regular adjustment of portfolio because duration of portfolio will change at SLOWER rate than will time itself Bond Swaps • Technique for managing bond portfolio by selling some bonds and buying others • Possible benefits achieved: – – – – tax treatment yields maturity structure trading profits Types of Swaps • Substitution swap – Tax swap • Intermarket spread swap • Pure-yield pick-up swap • Rate anticipation swap Strategies for Managing a Bond Portfolio • Bullet Portfolio – Entire portfolio is placed in one maturity • Bond ladders – Equally distributed dollar allocations over time • Barbells – Majority of dollar allocations in shortest-term and longest-term holdings Yield Curve or Term Structure • • • • Vertical axis: yield to maturity Horizontal axis: term to maturity Bonds of like quality Always based on Treasuries Shapes of Yield Curve • Rising: Most common (used to be only one observed) • Falling: Next most common • Humped • Flat: Rare Types of Yield Curves Theories of the Yield Curve • Unbiased expectations – Long-term rates reflect market’s expectation of current and future short-term rates. • Preferred habitat – Significantly more attractive rates can induce investors and borrowers out of their preferred maturity structures (continued) Theories of Yield Curve (continued) • Market Segmentation: – Yields reflect supply and demand for each maturity class. • Liquidity Preference: – Borrowers are risk averse and demand premium for buying long-term securities – Yield curves tend to be upward sloping. (continued) Theories of the Yield Curve (continued) • Preferred habitat – Significantly more attractive rates can induce investors and borrowers out of their preferred maturity structures • Unbiased expectations – Long-term rates reflect market’s expectation of current and future short-term rates. Factors Affecting Bond Yields • General credit conditions: Credit conditions affect all yields to one degree or another. • Default risk: Riskier issues require higher promised yields. • Term structure: Yields vary with maturity • Duration: Weighted average amount of time until present value of purchase price is recouped. • Coupon effect: Low-coupon issues offer yields that are partially taxed as capital gains. (continued) Factors Affecting Bond Yields (continued) • Seasonings: Newly issued bonds may sell at slight discount to otherwise-equivalent established issues. • Marketability: Actively traded issues tend to be worth more than similar issues less actively traded. • Call protection: Protection from early call tends to enhance bond’s value. • Sinking fund provisions: Sinking funds reduce probability of default, thereby tending to enhance bond’s value. • Me-first rules: Bonds protected from diluting effect of additional borrowings are generally worth more than otherwise-equivalent unprotected issues.