FINANCE 7311 Optimal Capital Structure & Cost of Capital 1 OUTLINE Introduction Cost of Capital - General – Required return v. cost of capital – Risk – WACC Capital Structure Costs of Capital 2 CAPITAL STRUCTURE NO TAXES TAXES BANKRUPTCY & OTHER COSTS TRADE-OFF THEORY PECKING ORDER HYPOTHESIS OTHER CONSIDERATIONS 3 COMPONENT COSTS DEBT PREFERRED EQUITY – DISCOUNTED DIVIDENDS – CAPM WACC Again 4 Optimal Capital Structure Goal: Maximize Value of Firm See Lecture Note on Value of Firm V = CF/R (In General) We Can Max. Numerator or Min. Denominator Optimal Capital Structure - that mix of debt and equity which maximizes the value of the firm or minimizes the cost of capital 5 Investors’ Required v. Cost of Capital Investors: R = r + π + RP – 1st two same for most securities – RP => Risk Premium Security’s required return depends on risk of the security’s cash flows Cost of Capital => depends on risk of firm’s cash flows 6 FIRM RISK V. SECURITY RISK FIRM RISK => CIRCLE CF’S SECURITY RISK => RECTANGLE CF’S ALL EQUITY FIRM: SECURITY RISK = FIRM RISK Ra = Re = WACC DEBT => EQUITY RISKIER (WHY?) 7 Unlevered: Assets = Equity = 100 GOOD: SALES 100.00 COSTS 70.00 EBIT 30.00 INT 0.00 EBT 30.00 TAX 12.00 NI 18.00 ROE 18% BAD: SALES 82.50 COSTS 80.00 EBIT 2.50 INT 0.00 EBT 2.50 TAX 1.00 NI 1.50 ROE 1.5% 8 Levered: A = 100: D = E = 50 GOOD: SALES 100.00 COSTS 70.00 EBIT 30.00 INT 5.00 EBT 25.00 TAX 10.00 NI 15.00 ROE 30% BAD: SALES COSTS EBIT INT EBT TAX NI ROE 82.50 80.00 2.50 5.00 (2.50) (1.00) (1.50) (3%) 9 Example: Cash Flows to Assets same (EBIT) Cash Flows to Equity Differ 10 COST OF CAPITAL, intro. Cost of Capital is weighted average of cost of debt and the cost of equity (Why?) CAPITAL IS FUNGIBLE – GRAIN EXAMPLE – BATHTUB EXAMPLE WACC = Re*[E/(D+E)] + Rd(1-t)[D/D+E] 11 Cost of Capital, cont. Weights should be market; book may be ok We can write Re as follows: Re = Ra + (1 - Tc)(Ra - Rd) * D/E Business Financial Risk Risk 12 Business Risk Sales/Input Price Variability High operating leverage Technology Regulation Management depth/breadth Competition 13 FINANCIAL RISK The additional risk imposed on S/H from the use of debt financing. – Debt has a prior claim – S/H must stand in line behind B/H Higher Risk ==> Higher Required Return 14 Optimal Capital Structure Benchmark Case No Taxes No Transaction Costs Information is symmetric No other market imperfections 15 Optimal Capital Structure No Taxes CF’s From Assets Unchanged Value of Firm ==> Circle Portfolio of Debt & Equity ‘PIE’ Idea Miller & Modigliani Proposition I (M&M I) √ The Financing Decision is Irrelevant 16 Optimal Capital Structure No Taxes BUT, Debt is Cheaper than Equity, so why doesn’t WACC fall? WACC relates to the CIRCLE Simply ‘repackaging’ same CF stream 17 Cost of Capital, No Taxes Re = Ra + (Ra - Rd)*D/E Miller & Modigliani Prop. II (M&M II) √ Re increases such that WACC is unchanged 18 No Taxes - Summary Value of Firm is INDEPENDENT of financing - M&M I Re increases as D increases SUCH THAT WACC IS UNCHANGED - M&M II EPS increase is offset by Re increase 19 TAXES Interest is deductible for tax purposes Investors still require Rd After-tax cost to firm: = Rd * (1 - Tc) CF’s higher by amount of tax savings 20 TAXES Vl = Vu + PV (tax savings) Value of levered Firm = Value of unlevered + PV of tax advantage of debt Vl = EBIT(1-t)/Ra + Tc x D 21 TAXES, cont. Now, WACC < Re (all equity) = Ra ==> Logical Conclusion: ==> Use ‘all’ debt 22 Why Not Use All Debt? Other Tax Shields COSTS OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS DIRECT BANKRUPTCY COSTS Accountants Attorneys Others Who Pays? 23 Costs of Financial Distress, cont. INDIRECT COSTS: DISRUPTION IN MANAGEMENT Is B/R Management Specialty? EMPLOYEE COSTS Morale Low Turnover increases 24 Indirect Costs, cont. CUSTOMERS Quality concerns (airlines; insurance) Service concerns (autos; computers) 25 TRADE-OFF THEORY TRADE OFF TAX ADVANTAGE OF DEBT AGAINST COSTS OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS PRACTICE: It is impossible to solve for precisely optimal capital structure FLAT BOTTOM BOAT - None and too much important; between doesn’t matter 26 Handout #1 - Notes EBIT Unchanged - No effect on assets Payments to B/H & S/H continually increase Note that both Rd and Re increase EPS continually increases Share Price Maximized at 30% debt WACC Minimized at 30% debt 27 Handout #2 Vl = Vu (No Taxes) (M&M I) Vl = Vu + Tc*D (Taxes) Re = Ru + (Ru - Rd)*D/E*(1 - Tc) (M&M II) Pictures 28 Simple Numerical Example Vu = 500; Vl = $670 E = 670 - 500 = 170 Re = .20 + (.20 - .10)(1 - .34)(500/170) = 39.41% WACC = 14.92% 100 / 14.92% = $670 29 PECKING ORDER Hypothesis Relaxes symmetric information assumption Now assume that management knows more about the future prospects of the firm than do outsiders The announcement to issue debt or equity is a SIGNAL 30 PECKING ORDER Hypothesis If management expects good prospects: will not want to share with new S/H will not want to sell undervalued shares expects adequate CF’s to fund debt service ===> WILL ISSUE DEBT 31 Pecking Order Hypothesis, cont. If management expects bad prospects: Will want to share with new S/H Will want to sell overvalued shares May not expect adequate CF’s for debt service ===> WILL ISSUE EQUITY 32 Market Reaction to Security Issue Announcements Announcement of new Equity Issue Negative reaction 30% of new equity issue 3% of existing equity Announcement of new Debt Issue Little or no reaction Share repurchase ==> Positive reaction 33 Pecking Order Summary Firms use INTERNAL FUNDS first – Conservative dividend policy If external funds, then DEBT FIRST (signaling problem) When debt capacity is used, then EQUITY Resulting capital structure is function of firm’s profitability relative to invest. needs 34 OTHER FACTORS CASH FLOW STABILITY ASSET STRUCTURE – TANGIBLE V. INTANGIBLE PROFITABILITY AGENCY PROBLEMS – OVER & UNDER INVESTMENT PROBLEM – REMOVES CASH FROM MGMT 35 OTHER FACTORS, cont. CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS FINANCIAL FLEXIBILITY RESERVE OF BORROWING POWER TODAY’S DECISION AFFECTS FUTURE MANAGERIAL FLEXIBILTIY DEBT COVENANTS CASH FLOW TAKEN FROM MGMT 36 COST OF CAPITAL DISCOUNT RATE DEPENDS ON RISK OF CASH FLOW STREAM The Cost of Capital Depends on the USE of the money, not its SOURCE When is WACC appropriate? Project has same risk as Firm 37 COST OF CAPITAL EXAMPLE: Both! Both have IRR > Cost of Capital Project A has IRR of 13% and is financed with 8% debt; Project B has IRR of 15% & financed with 16% equity. WACC is 12%. Which should you do? ==> Why? 38 COMPONENT COSTS DEBT => Return required by investor, Rd Capital market: YTM for O/S debt of firm YTM for debt of ‘similar’ firms Similar: Business Risk & Financial Risk Same Industry: controls for business risk YTM of different rating ‘classes’ Standard &Poors, Moodys Ratings: Business Risk & Financial Risk 39 Debt, Bond Ratings STANDARD & POORS AAA => Highest rating BBB => adequate capacity to repay P&I BB => Speculative (below investment grade) Junk CCC, D (D = default) 40 PREFERRED STOCK Preferred is like a ‘perpetuity’ Pp = D / Rp ==> Rp = D / Pp Cost of preferred = Dividend Yield 41 COMMON STOCK Three Methods Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Dividend Discount Model Risk Premium Method 42 Capital Asset Pricing Model 2 TYPES OF RISK: SYSTEMATIC (Market-wide; GDP) NONSYSTEMATIC (Firm specific) Diversification => can virtually eliminate nonsystematic risk 43 Common Stock, CAPM Investors should only be rewarded for systematic risk, which is measured by Beta Beta => a measure of the volatility of the stock relative to the market Ri = Rf + B*(Rm - Rf) Where: Rf = risk-free rate Rm = market return Rm - Rf = market ‘risk premium’ 44 BETA Beta of Market = 1 Portfolio Beta = weighted average of all betas in the portfolio Where do we get Beta? Regression analysis Beta of firm if publicly traded Beta from portfolio of ‘similar’ firms Similar need not include financial risk 45 Levered/Unlevered Beta We can adjust Beta for Leverage as follows: Bl = Bu * [1 + D/E*(1-t)] and: Bu = Bl / [1 + D/E*(1 - t)] 46 Levered/Unlevered Beta Take Levered Beta from sample portfolio Unlever to find ‘unlevered’ or asset beta, using D/E of sample portfolio ‘Relever’ unlevered beta using D/E of firm Note: This is same process used to adjust Re to reflect additional financial risk. 47 Cost of Equity: Discount Dividends Recall: P0 = D1 / (R - g) Expected returns = required in equilibrium We can solve above for ‘expected’ return: R = D1/P0 + g The trick is to estimate g (Forecasts; history; SGR) 48 Dividend Discount - New equity If new equity is issued, there are transaction costs. Not all proceeds go to firm. Let c = % of proceeds as transaction costs Then: R = D1/ [P0*(1-c)] + g 49 Equity Cost: Risk Premium Method Add risk premium to company’s marginal cost of debt Re = Rd + Risk Premium Problem: Where do you get risk premium 50 WACC SUMMARY WACC = Re*[E/(D+E)] + Rd*(1-t)[D/(D+E)] Required return depends on firm risk. Capital budgeting: Assumes project has same risk as firm. 51