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To cite this Article: Ahmed, Salman, Keating, Paul and Solinas, Ugo , 'Shaping the future of UN peace operations: is there a doctrine in the house?', Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 20:1, 11 - 28 To link to this article: DOI: 10.1080/09557570601155278 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09557570601155278 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Full terms and conditions of use: http://www.informaworld.com/terms-and-conditions-of-access.pdf This article maybe used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, re-distribution, re-selling, loan or sub-licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. The publisher does not give any warranty express or implied or make any representation that the contents will be complete or accurate or up to date. The accuracy of any instructions, formulae and drug doses should be independently verified with primary sources. The publisher shall not be liable for any loss, actions, claims, proceedings, demand or costs or damages whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with or arising out of the use of this material. © Taylor and Francis 2007 Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Volume 20, Number 1, March 2007 The United Nations and peacebuilding: prospects and perils in international regime (trans)formation Shaping the future of UN peace operations: is there a doctrine in the house? Salman Ahmed, Paul Keating and Ugo Solinas United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations Abstract In the face of an unprecedented surge in United Nations (UN) peacekeeping activity over the past three years—with now almost 100,000 military, police and civilian personnel deployed on four continents in 18 operations—there is a need for the UN to develop a comprehensive doctrine that better defines what modern UN peacekeeping has become and that covers the full range of civilian peacebuilding activities that are now a standard feature of Security Council mandates. This paper serves as a primer and proposes an agenda for debate on such a doctrine. It summarises evolutions in thinking and practice over the past 15 years. It also highlights key conceptual challenges and political fault lines to be reconciled in order for a new comprehensive doctrine to enjoy broad support of the UN’s 192 Member States, while still providing relevant guidance to thousands of personnel on the front-lines of the effort to help rebuild war-torn states. Introduction There has been a steady and major increase in United Nations (UN) peacekeeping activity since 1999, particularly over the past three years. Almost 100,000 military, police and civilian personnel, drawn from well over 100 countries, are now deployed on four continents in 18 peace operations1 managed by the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO). These numbers are likely to go up considerably in 2007, if the UN assumes greater peacekeeping responsibilities 1 In this article, as in DPKO today, the terms ‘peacekeeping operations’ and ‘peace operations’ are used interchangeably. The term ‘peacekeeping’ is assumed by many to refer strictly to the security-related activities undertaken by military personnel. However, most contemporary peacekeeping operations are mandated to perform civilian peacebuilding activities as well, such as political mediation and assistance to national reconciliation, support to electoral efforts, demobilisation and reintegration of former combatants, police reform and restructuring, and protection and promotion of human rights. Some operations managed by DPKO, such as in Kosovo and Afghanistan, do not have military components, since security functions are being performed by NATO-led forces. The broader term of ‘peace operations’ is perhaps thus more apt, but there is resistance to retiring the term ‘peacekeeping operations’ because of tradition, brand recognition and funding implications. ISSN 0955-7571 print/ISSN 1474-449X online/07/010011–18 q 2007 Centre of International Studies DOI: 10.1080/09557570601155278 Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 12 Salman Ahmed et al in Darfur, Sudan. New operations may need to be mounted as well, pushing the annual peacekeeping budget—already at an all time high—over US$6 billion. In the face of this dramatic surge, attention is understandably focused on building up the DPKO’s operational capabilities to keep pace with demands. At the same time, the UN, its Member States and the Secretariat alike must give equal attention to doctrinal review and development, so as not to repeat the mistakes of the 1990s, when the quantitative growth in activity far outpaced qualitative reflection on and adherence to the principles and concepts governing the instrument’s use. Fortunately, there is growing recognition today among Member States and practitioners on the need for the UN to develop a comprehensive doctrine that better defines what modern UN peacekeeping operations have become and that covers the full range of civilian, post-conflict peacebuilding activities that are now a standard feature of Security Council mandates. The DPKO is accordingly dedicating more resources and attention to doctrinal development today than it ever has before. Headway is already being made in capturing lessons learned and translating them into readily accessible intranet-based policy guidance for hundreds of individual lines of activity. There is more work to be done in many of the functional areas and even more reflection and dialogue required on the overarching doctrinal questions, the answers to which will inform the future direction of UN peace operations. Three fundamental questions stand out in particular. In which circumstances is it appropriate or ill-advised to establish a UN peacekeeping operation? When and how should UN peacekeeping operations be terminated, mindful of past cases where a relapse into conflict has followed the departure of a UN peace operation? And how can the UN fashion a doctrine that is sufficiently prescriptive to be of use, without placing a straightjacket on the dynamism and flexibility that is required to respond to unique sets of circumstances and challenges? This paper does not provide definitive answers to these questions. Nor does it prescribe a new doctrine. Rather, it serves as a primer and proposes an agenda for a series of informal discussions on doctrine that are intended to occur in 2007 among Member States, the DPKO, external experts, and key partners within and outside the UN system. The addition of a major new partner to the scene—via the creation of the Peacebuilding Support Office in the Executive Office of the Secretary-General to support the work of the new inter-governmental body at the UN, the Peacebuilding Commission—is particularly welcome.2 The next section takes stock of evolutions in doctrine and practice in UN peacekeeping, particularly over the past 15 years. The two sections thereafter highlight key conceptual and political challenges, respectively, that the doctrine will need to address in order to provide relevant guidance to UN peace operations personnel on the frontlines of efforts to rebuild war-torn states, while still enjoying broad support of the UN’s 192 Member States as a whole. The dilemmas and contradictions described throughout this article, particularly in the third and fourth sections, illustrate the very challenging nature of the exercise upon which 2 At the 2005 World Summit, Member States agreed to establish the Peacebuilding Commission as an advisory body to advise on and propose integrated strategies for postconflict peacebuilding and recovery. Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 Shaping the future of UN peace operations 13 DPKO has just embarked. The article also describes the types of issues that the newly established Peacebuilding Commission will need to confront. This paper poses far more questions than it answers. The convergence of common interests to enhance the effectiveness of future UN peace operations gives reason to hope that progress will be made in finding answers to them in the year ahead. Evolutions in doctrine and practice in UN peacekeeping The UN Charter does not even mention the word ‘peacekeeping’, which was first introduced in 1948 as a pragmatic UN innovation to support collective security in the Cold War era. Almost sixty years later there is still no single document entitled ‘doctrine for UN peace operations’. While lessons have indeed been learned and applied in practice, a comprehensive doctrine remains elusive, for reasons that are explained throughout this and subsequent sections. Thus, the de facto doctrine guiding UN peace operations must be inferred from the evolutions in the Security Council mandates assigned to them. As this section illustrates, those mandates have been informed by changes in the global order, major reports and proposals emanating from the perceived successes and failures of past operations, and the ad hoc responses fashioned to meet unexpected new demands. Containment: the Cold War years The 15 peacekeeping operations established between 1947 and 1989 were, with notable exceptions such as in the Congo in the early 1960s, designed to provide an international third-party presence to monitor and verify previously warring states’ compliance with cease-fire agreements and to alert the Security Council to developments on the ground that could threaten to undermine a fragile peace. The actions of the unarmed or lightly armed UN military peacekeepers were guided with considerable success by a trio of core doctrinal principles inferred from Chapter VI of the Charter itself: consent of the warring parties for UN involvement, impartiality in dealing with them, and the non-use of force except in self-defence.3 This Cold War model of UN peacekeeping was essentially one of containment, where peacekeepers provided a buffer between the parties, thereby creating a more conducive environment for negotiations led by others to seek an enduring political resolution of the conflicts. Windows of opportunity: the post-Cold-War honeymoon The second evolutionary phase in UN peacekeeping was ushered in with the end of the Cold War in 1989. Several of the civil wars in Latin America and Africa, which had been fuelled by the East– West rivalry, were suddenly ripe for conclusion. Additionally, the Permanent Five members of the Security Council were now ready to reach agreement among themselves on a far more active and central role for the UN in the management and resolution of internal conflicts. 3 See Secretary-General of the UN (1956) on the plan for an emergency international UN force requested in the resolution adopted by the General Assembly. Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 14 Salman Ahmed et al Recognising the tectonic shift in patterns of conflict brought about by the end of the Cold War, UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali took a lead role in helping to redefine and articulate the UN’s contribution to the maintenance of international peace and security. Boutros-Ghali’s Agenda for Peace identified ‘post-conflict peacebuilding’, along with preventive diplomacy, peacemaking and peacekeeping, as one of the instruments available to the international community for managing violent conflicts. Peacebuilding was defined as ‘action to identify and support structures which will tend to strengthen and solidify peace in order to avoid a relapse into conflict’ (Secretary-General of the UN 1992, 6). In order to be truly successful, the Agenda argued, ‘peacemaking and peacekeeping operations must come to include comprehensive efforts to identify and support structures which will tend to consolidate peace and advance a sense of confidence and well-being among people’ (Secretary-General of the UN 1992, 16). An Agenda for Peace was closely followed by An Agenda for Development, which noted that ‘most peoples strive to achieve their development against a background of past, present or threatened conflict’ and identified peace as a ‘fundamental dimension of development’ (Secretary-General of the UN 1994, 5). In this regard, peacebuilding was presented as a means of offering countries emerging from conflict a chance to establish new social, political and judicial institutions that could give impetus to development. At the same time, while making the case for a more conflict-sensitive approach to development in waraffected countries, an Agenda for Development also emphasised the need for peacebuilding efforts to address the underlying economic, social, cultural and humanitarian causes of conflict (Secretary-General of the UN 1994, 6). Operationally, an enormous amount was accomplished by UN peacekeeping in the early stages of the post-Cold-War period. In more than a dozen situations throughout the 1990s, fragile peace processes were bolstered by the security presence provided by UN Blue Helmets. United Nations peacekeeping was achieving positive results. Missions were actually even brought to a close once key provisions of the peace agreements they were invited to help implement had been completed. The newly invigorated international system yearned for ‘success stories’ in the waning days of the post-Cold-War honeymoon period. It soon began to emerge, however, that in many instances success was being proclaimed prematurely and that the absence of conflict during a peacekeeping deployment was not the same as a self-sustaining peace process. By pegging success to the holding of elections, the international community had made the error of assuming that elections and democracy meant the same thing. Time and again the crucial questions were being ignored. Had the underlying economic, social, cultural and humanitarian causes of conflict been addressed? Was a real political process and were political systems in place that could sustain the transformation of conflict objectives into non-violent domestic politics? Would the new political, social and judicial institutions crucial for development continue in the wake of a peace operation’s departure? What metrics would be used to gauge progress? Pause for doctrinal reflection was warranted at that stage before launching the peacekeeping instrument into the breech but the time was not there for it, and the post-ColdWar demands on the international community, and the UN in particular, continued to mount. Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 Shaping the future of UN peace operations 15 Conflation of peacekeeping and war-fighting in the mid-1990s Facing mounting public pressure to address humanitarian catastrophes in Somalia and the former Yugoslavia, the Security Council despatched UN peacekeeping operations into conflicts whose roots no longer lay solely in the Cold War, where the existence of the state itself was being challenged by those with arms, where there was no peace to keep, no consent of all key belligerents, and where studious impartiality in the face of aggression risked resembling appeasement. The instrument that had been successfully engaged in a particular set of circumstances could and should not have been assumed to be applicable in a totally different context. The results should have been predictable. Early successes in Namibia, El Salvador, Cambodia and Mozambique all too easily faded in the shadow of the high-profile failures of international peacekeeping in the former Yugoslavia, Somalia and Rwanda (where the operation deployed on the basis of an actual peace to keep, but was woefully illequipped and ill-prepared to respond when the peace collapsed and genocide ensued). This led some to assume that the UN should not be in the business of peacekeeping at all and that regional organisations such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) were better suited to the task. Amid intense criticism, the battered UN peacekeeping system was judged by many to be a failed enterprise. International interest in a UN at the forefront of international peace and security efforts waned quickly. The 1995 Supplement to the Agenda for Peace, in recoil from these battering experiences, criticised the blurring of the distinction between peacekeeping and peace enforcement and rejected the assumption that one could successfully transition to the other, in situ. The document doctrinally reasserted the importance of consent, impartiality and the non-use of force except in self-defence as the fundamental principles of UN peacekeeping, which had been departed from in Somalia and Bosnia, where UN peacekeepers were deployed to impose a peace on recalcitrant belligerents intent on pursuing their military objectives. Although no concerted effort was made in the Supplement to expand on the concept of peacebuilding, it did note that peacebuilding was ‘as valuable in preventing conflict as in healing the wounds after conflict has occurred’ (Secretary-General of the UN 1995, 12). Also in 1995, DPKO issued a set of General Guidelines for United Nations Peacekeeping Operations as a training publication, which outlined principles, lessons and approaches to what is now called ‘traditional’ peacekeeping. This document, although an important articulation of a UN approach to peacekeeping, did not range into the difficult and muddied waters of how to handle ‘wider peacekeeping’ functions or the line between peacekeeping and peace enforcement. This was to be the last foray into doctrine development in UN peacekeeping for over half a decade as the prominence of and international interest in UN peace operations waned. Compartmentalisation: the ‘regionalisation’ of peacekeeping By 1996, as political efforts to build up regional institutions were already intensifying, attention turned to replacing UN peacekeeping with regional organisations and ad hoc coalitions, mandated by the Security Council, which were assumed to be better equipped and politically prepared to use force to deal Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 16 Salman Ahmed et al decisively with potential ‘spoilers’ and stabilise a fragile peace. These entities came to be seen as the instruments of choice for ‘heavy lifting’ in international peace operations. In the mid-late 1990s, although the first national doctrines for peacekeeping and for ‘operations other than war’ started to emerge, still no appetite for a UN peacekeeping and peacebuilding doctrine was exhibited, and the notion that peacekeeping was a low-end task in the military spectrum of activity continued to prevail in most military doctrine circles. The need for urgent international response to crises in Kosovo, East Timor, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Sierra Leone in 1999 revealed, however, that no regional organisation or ad hoc coalition could be called upon to respond to all instances. In some cases, no organisation other than the UN was politically acceptable to the belligerents. In others, the UN was the only organisation with the mandate, willingness and ability to mount or improvise an appropriate multidisciplinary response to security and peacebuilding challenges. Moreover, UN peacekeeping came with a ready, widely accepted and quite sustainable cost-sharing formula through assessed financial contributions. And, in a world where many Western nations were downsizing their militaries, dependence was growing on others with large forces, such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, for whom the UN was and remains the preferred mechanism through which to conduct peacekeeping. Thus, UN peacekeeping edged back to the fore, but once again without the benefit of a doctrine to guide it in the performance of new complex responsibilities. In 1999 and 2000, alongside the military observers and troop contingents, thousands of UN civilian personnel—many in new roles as transitional administrators—were recruited from across the globe against hastily sketched terms of reference. The transitional administrations in Kosovo and East Timor faced challenges and responsibilities unique among UN peace operations. In addition to performing key state functions such as enforcing the law, establishing customs services and regulations and operating public utilities, they were also required to promote human rights and facilitate reconciliation in places where grievances ran deep. However, as staff poured into Pristina, Dili and Freetown and fanned out across the outlying provinces, it became all too clear that there was no guiding vision for these efforts beyond that being fashioned on the ground as reactions to daily events. Conflict transformation: the Brahimi report In the new context of resurgent UN operations, the August 2000 report of the High-Level Panel on UN Peace Operations, chaired by former Algerian foreign minister Lakhdar Brahimi, provided an opportunity for a first major foray since 1995 into some aspects of UN peacekeeping and peacebuilding doctrine. In many ways, the Secretary-General’s report on the fall of Srebrenica (Secretary-General of the UN 1999b) and the report of the Independent Inquiry into the actions of the UN during the Rwandan genocide (Secretary-General of the UN 1999a) helped pave the way for the Brahimi report by promoting the notion of institutional self-criticism. These reports demonstrated that to truly understand what had happened and where the failures lay, each part of the UN System, the Member States, the UN Secretariat, the men and women in field operations and the countries in question themselves all had a share of responsi- Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 Shaping the future of UN peace operations 17 bility in the success or failure of UN peacekeeping operations. As a result, the reports also served to open the door to a more frank discussion on the limitations of UN field operations and options to improve them. The Brahimi report took this discussion forward. As a start, the Brahimi report challenged the loose usage of the prefix ‘postconflict’ generally applied to peacebuilding: It should have come as no surprise to anyone that some of the missions of the past decade would be particularly hard to accomplish: they tended to deploy where conflict had not resulted in victory for any side, where a military stalemate or international pressure or both had brought fighting to a halt but at least some of the parties to the conflict were not seriously committed to ending the confrontation. United Nations operations thus did not deploy into post-conflict situations but tried to create them. (Panel on UN Peace Operations 2000, viii) With respect to the employment of military personnel, the report echoed sentiments by the membership that the guiding principles of consent, impartiality and the use of force only in self-defence had stood the test of time. Reflecting on both the successes and failures of the past decade, however, the Panel suggested that these bedrock principles needed to be interpreted more liberally. The lack of consent from ‘spoilers’ outside the peace process should not preclude the UN peacekeeping operations from deploying. Impartiality and non-use of force must not be construed restrictively so as to enable such belligerents to hijack the will of the majority seeking peace. Rather, the report argued, the UN should be prepared to ‘confront the lingering forces of war and violence’. This would entail equipping the operations at the outset with more robust operational capabilities to defend not only mission personnel but the mission mandate and civilians under imminent threat as well. The operations would need to be given robust rules of engagement that would ‘not force UN contingents to cede the initiative to their attackers’. If adequate numbers of troops and other enablers were not forthcoming to do the job, then the operation should not go forward (Panel on UN Peace Operations 2000, ix). In the peacebuilding arena, the report called for a doctrinal shift in the use of civilian police and related rule of law elements in peace operations to emphasise ‘a team approach in upholding the rule of law and respect for human rights and helping communities coming out of conflict to achieve national reconciliation’. The report also urged better integration of elections activities into a broader strategy for the support of governance institutions, so as to diminish the focus on elections as an end state (Panel on UN Peace Operations 2000, ix – x). The report contended that neither DPKO nor any other part of the UN system was equipped or mandated to deliver these peacebuilding and broader development objectives on its own. It thus called for better coordination and integration of effort between DPKO and the wider UN system at the headquarters level in the planning, deployment and support of multidimensional missions. It further proposed structural integration of UN peace operations and the ‘UN Country Team’ of humanitarian and development agencies at the field level. The push towards ‘integrated missions’ implied that one of the purposes of UN peace operations was to help advance good governance and development agendas, and that these agendas also needed to be harnessed in support of peacekeeping and peacebuilding activities. This thinking was underpinned by Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 18 Salman Ahmed et al additional recommendations calling for more flexibility in the use of mission budgets and assets to support the ‘peace dividend’ and reconstruction activity such as ‘quick impact projects’ and to provide seed money for reintegration of former combatants into civilian life. These doctrinal recommendations were certainly highlights of a report that otherwise focused the majority of its attention on measures to enhance operational efficiency and effectiveness. Indeed, consultations with Member States during the research and drafting phase had revealed that the Panel would already be pushing the edge of the envelope with the few doctrinal points it had made. Just the use of the term ‘peace operations’ in the Panel’s title, or mention of the word ‘doctrine’, prompted several delegations to question the intent and appropriateness of the exercise. They warned that polemical debate on doctrinal issues could undermine widespread support to stop treating UN peacekeeping as a temporary aberration and readiness to invest in its operational capacities accordingly. The Panel took these political realities into account, as did the Secretary-General in his 4 October 2000 implementation plan, by not pushing for a more ambitious, comprehensive or revolutionary doctrine for future UN peace operations. Member States achieved consensus on the majority of the operational recommendations, including those ultimately entailing hundreds of millions of dollars of additional investment. The General Assembly’s Special Committee on Peacekeeping Operations did not explicitly endorse the doctrinal recommendations in full, nor did it reject any of them either (Special Committee on Peacekeeping Operations 2000). The Security Council, on the other hand, welcomed the doctrinal recommendations in principle, and agreed to consider their application on a case-bycase basis. The recommended shift to ‘integrated missions’ was welcomed, but not without reservation. Agencies, Funds and Programmes welcomed a greater say in the planning of UN peacekeeping operations but balked at the prospect of taking direction from them. Humanitarian agencies and non-governmental organisations questioned, in particular, whether integrated missions would expose life-saving emergency assistance to politicisation and violate humanitarian neutrality. There was little dispute among Member States on the need for better coordination between the different parts of the UN system working in post-conflict settings. But Member States concurrently expressed hesitation about the potential blurring of the distinction between the organisation’s peace and security activities and its humanitarian and development activities. Developing countries, in particular, raised concerns that these arrangements could lead to key development questions being taken up by the Security Council, rather than in the General Assembly and the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), where developing countries were better represented. They also cautioned against resources for development being diverted to politicosecurity activities. To the contrary, key financial contributors voiced unease at the prospects of the floodgates being opened to the use of assessed contributions to sustain development activities. The political and bureaucratic agreement to enter the age of ‘integrated missions’ was, in retrospect, as fragile as the very peace processes these operations would be despatched to protect. True, if not for the choice to approach the exercise pragmatically rather than dogmatically, progression into this area might not have Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 Shaping the future of UN peace operations 19 been possible at all. But it came at the expense of ushering forth yet another cycle of surge in activity without the benefit of a doctrine endorsed by Member States to underpin it. Closing missions: no exit without strategy The Secretary-General attempted to advance the cause of doctrinal development through his April 2001 report to the Security Council entitled ‘No exit without strategy: Security Council decision-making and the close or transition of UN Peacekeeping Operations’. That report did not receive nearly as much attention as the Brahimi report even though it addressed more directly and comprehensively the end state that UN peacekeeping operations should seek to achieve. Reflecting on the lessons of the previous decade, this report underlined three key objectives ‘whose fulfilment has often brought about successful comprehensive peacebuilding’: (a) Consolidating internal and external security: This involves the deployment of peacekeepers and/or military observers to ensure security or negotiate access in order to promote security sector reform, including the creation of a neutral police force broadly representative of the community; disarmament, demobilization and reintegration; judicial and penal reform; and mine clearance and capacity-building for mine action. (b) Strengthening political institutions and good governance: This requires the creation or strengthening of national democratic institutions, political parties and other participatory mechanisms, including the media; capacity-building for government and civil society; technical assistance in human rights; civic education and training; electoral assistance, including the development of electoral law, a code of conduct, and electoral councils; and support for the fight against corruption. (c) Promoting economic and social rehabilitation and transformation: This involves fostering conditions for resumed economic and social development; sustainable return and reintegration of displaced persons and refugees; confidence-building measures conducive to national reconciliation; stimulation of maximum involvement of civil society, especially women, and of national non-governmental organizations; attention to the needs of youth, especially young men; providing social services (health education, water and sanitation); providing sustainable sources of livelihood to demobilized soldiers and returning refugees and displaced persons; job creation, microcredit schemes and the promotion of income-generating activities; reconstructing roads, bridges and railways to provide access to wardevastated areas for resettlement and agricultural production; and psychosocial trauma counselling for war-affected groups. (Secretary-General of the UN 2001, 19) The Security Council welcomed the report as an important contribution to their deliberations on the subject, while neither endorsing nor rejecting these three objectives. It did, however, undertake ‘to include, as appropriate, peace-building Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 20 Salman Ahmed et al elements in a mission’s mandate to support the transition from peacekeeping to post-conflict peace-building’ (Security Council President 2001, 1). The Council also recognised that a major criterion for deciding on the scaling-down or withdrawal of a peacekeeping operation should be the ‘successful completion of its mandate, resulting in the establishment of a requisite political and security environment conducive to durable peace and/or a follow-on peace building process’ (President of the UN Security Council 2001, 2). Creeping towards institution-building: the post-Brahimi years Between 2001 and 2004, the UN Secretariat did not attempt to engage Member States on a broad doctrinal debate on peacekeeping and peacebuilding. Dialogue mainly focused on the implementation of the Brahimi report’s recommendations related to strengthening DPKO and the organisation’s rapid deployment capacities. However, proposals on several different areas of focus in different fora, when aggregated, represent an extension of the argument advanced in the Brahimi Report about avoiding an overly elections-centric approach to peacebuilding. In its interaction with the legislative bodies on several occasions, DPKO emphasised the importance of deepening the organisation’s capacity to strengthen rule of law institutions, ensure deeper and more lasting reform of the security sector, achieve a more integrated approach across the UN system in the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of former combatants, and recognise the linkages between all of these activities. In 2004, the Secretary-General issued his report on the rule of law and transitional justice in conflict and post-conflict societies, taking stock of existing UN practices, experience and expertise and putting forward a series of recommendations both for the Council and for the UN system as a whole (Secretary-General of the UN 2004). In a presidential statement issued later that year, the Security Council asked the Secretariat to provide a report with proposals about the implementation of the Secretary-General’s recommendations regarding the UN system, with particular emphasis on those measures that could be implemented rapidly. It also expressed its intention to consider the matter of justice and the rule of law in conflict and post-conflict societies within six months (President of the UN Security Council 2004). Coherence and strategy: the Peacebuilding Commission In its report prepared for consideration in advance of the 2005 World Summit, the Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change provided a lucid account of various factors that fuel civil wars, the dangers to regional and international stability civil wars present and the contribution the UN makes to diminishing their numbers. This report added its voice to the debate on UN peacekeeping and peacebuilding by largely reaffirming the basic vision expressed in the Brahimi Report, but making a plea to Member States to do better in resourcing operations since the total global supply of available peacekeepers was ‘running dangerously low’ (High Level Panel on Threats, Challenge and Change 2004, 6). The HighLevel Panel also made a number of specific recommendations to enhance Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 Shaping the future of UN peace operations 21 operational capacity. It recognised at the same time that a growing number of actors would be required to deliver this increasingly ambitious mandate. This gave rise to its recommendation to establish a ‘Peacebuilding Commission’, which would bring to the same table Security Council members, donor nations, troop contributing countries, the Bretton Woods Institutions and the UN system to identify the strategies and resources required to achieve a self-sustainable peace in countries emerging from war. In his 2005 report, In Larger Freedom, the Secretary-General embraced the vast majority of the High-Level Panel’s recommendations and called for a ‘strengthening of tools to deliver the military and civilian support needed to prevent and end wars as well as to build a sustainable peace’ (Secretary-General of the UN 2005). Although the report proposed the creation of a Peacebuilding Commission to bridge the ‘gaping hole’ in the UN’s institutional machinery, it paid relatively little attention to the doctrinal foundations of modern UN peace operations and the extent to which they had gradually been used by the Security Council to fill parts of this peacebuilding void. From the issuance of the Agenda for Peace in 1992 to In Larger Freedom in 2005, UN secretaries-general have, with varying degrees of success, attempted to advance the debate on doctrine for UN peacekeeping. Their proposals, even though not constituting a comprehensive doctrine for peacekeeping, in toto, have decidedly influenced the mandate and means most recently assigned to the latest generation of peacekeeping operations. The operations established or expanded in the past five years, in such places as Sierra Leone, the DRC, Liberia, Burundi, Haiti and Timor-Leste, have been ‘integrated’ and have been assigned mandates that go well beyond the ‘traditional’ military functions of cease-fire monitoring and observation, securing lines of communication and freedom of movement and providing a secure environment for elections to take place. They are charged with protection of civilians under imminent threat of physical violence and have, in most cases, been provided with rules of engagement that allow for combat operations to be conducted against potential ‘spoilers’. They have been assigned an increasingly broad range of civilian, post-conflict peacebuilding tasks such as support to the reestablishment of rule of law and security structures; the extension of state authority and the rehabilitation of local administration; the promotion of human rights; gender mainstreaming; the protection of children associated with armed conflict; and support to the provision of humanitarian assistance. The application of this new, de facto doctrine, representing an amalgamation of lessons learned over the previous decade, has produced a measure of stability that Liberia has not known for years and has enabled Africa’s first democratically elected female president, Ellen Sirleaf Johnson, to peacefully assume office. It has enabled the UN Mission in the DRC (MONUC) to keep major urban centres in the east from being overrun by armed militias and to assist the country to hold its first democratic elections in decades. Likewise, it has helped Haiti to be in a position to form a government that now enjoys internal and external legitimacy, and enable most of the country, with the exception of the capital itself, to enjoy relative calm. It has allowed peacekeeping operations in Sierra Leone and Burundi to come to a close and give way to smaller civilian follow-on presences. Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 22 Salman Ahmed et al Conceptual challenges and contradictions that remain The very positive developments noted above deserve to be taken into account when developing a doctrine for the future. Notwithstanding this, it would be premature to base a comprehensive doctrine for future operations entirely on their mandates. It remains to be seen if any of the aforementioned countries have attained a self-sustaining peace. Any number of issues, if not more fully addressed, could revive the grievances that contributed to the violence in the first place. These issues include poor relations with neighbouring countries; lack of functioning administrative, rule of law and security structures operating throughout the territory, consistent with international humanitarian law and human rights standards; insufficient checks and balances on the executive branch; lack of national commitment to the resolution of outstanding national reconciliation and transitional justice proceses; inadequate systems for revenue collection, fiscal accountability, and management of natural resources; stalled land reform; a long list of pending legal, economic and other reforms required to create a more conducive environment for investment and growth; and still rampant unemployment in general, particularly among disenfranchised youth who might easily be mobilised to violence. These tasks should not be expected to be completed in a matter of a few years. The UN system, the Bretton Woods institutions and regional organisations collectively have yet to develop expertise in all areas, with a clear division of labour. Even if and when they do, it would be unrealistic to expect all of these challenges to be addressed within a war-torn society in less than a decade or two. Yet, surely, it is not reasonable to expect Member States to continue to contribute troops and funding for large peace operations over the course of decades. In any event, it is hardly likely that host governments and populations will or should consent to operations on their soil for an indefinite period into the future. Once a democratically elected government has been installed (if not earlier), it will invariably and understandably expect to exercise its sovereign rights and responsibilities immediately. This will include calling for intrusive foreign presences to hasten their pace of departure. So, it is clear that one to two years is probably far too short a time to responsibly deploy and then subsequently wind down an operation; on the other hand, one to two decades is by no means a viable option either. Beyond that, an acceptable time-frame to complete a realistic set of benchmarks to make a peace process self-sustaining has yet to be credibly identified. The case of Timor-Leste illustrates that such a set of benchmarks remains illusive. Until recently, Timor-Leste was considered one of the ‘success stories’ of UN peacekeeping. In 1999, the territory was literally smouldering in ashes following the departure of Indonesian forces. By May 2002, thanks to intensive international engagement and actual UN transitional administration of the territory, a newly independent state at peace with itself and its neighbours, and with a democratically elected government at the helm, had joined the UN as its 191st Member State. Peacekeepers departed, leaving behind a much smaller follow-on presence. Sadly, in June 2006, political conflict erupted between competing Timorese factions within the government and tore apart the country’s fledgling security institutions. The government nearly collapsed as a result, threatening to unravel hard-won progress by the Timorese over the preceding Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 Shaping the future of UN peace operations 23 seven years. The country came dangerously close to entering into civil conflict, prompting the injection of Australian, Portuguese, Malaysian and New Zealand forces to stabilise the situation, and high-level political mediation by the UN to help the Timorese pull bank from the brink. By the end of August, rather than bringing the UN’s peace and security presence to a complete close, as all had hoped, the Security Council instead found itself having to authorise the deployment of a new peacekeeping mission in Timor-Leste.4 One theory to explain Timor-Leste’s near relapse to conflict is that the peace operation was simply wound down too early. The same argument is made with respect to Haiti, which saw the return of UN peacekeepers a decade after they had ‘successfully’ departed in the mid-1990s. While that may very well be the case, a dispassionate analysis of alternative explanations is warranted. For example, some contend that the tasks and time-frames allotted to these operations were indeed sufficient, but inadequate performance accounted for incomplete progress. Others could argue that the mission staff performed outstandingly, but they were not given adequate resources to do the job. Moreover, they could claim that UN agencies, regional organisations, neighbouring countries, bilateral donors, nongovernmental organisations and Security Council members all failed to do their part. This line of argumentation could also be totally off the mark because it attributes far too great a sense of agency to international actors. Surely the will and attitudes of the leaders and populations of the conflict-afflicted countries themselves are a decisive factor. Of course, a combination of all the above naturally comes into play and each situation will be different. On this, most would agree in the abstract. Yet, depending on whom you ask today, you are likely to get different answers to the questions begged by setbacks in Timor-Leste or Haiti, amongst other cases. The maxim of ‘where you sit dictates where you stand’ certainly applies. Members of the Security Council, key troop or financial contributors, mission personnel on the front lines, staff at UN headquarters or the very beneficiaries of these operations whose future lives depend on them each view past successes and failures through their own distinct lenses. Until the reasons for the ‘successes’ and ‘failures’ of the past are more widely debated and understood among all key stakeholders in UN peacekeeping, it would be premature to transform the mandates of the newest operations into a doctrine for the future. Furthermore, it has to be understood that few cases can be considered unqualified successes or failures. On one end of the spectrum, there are cases such as Namibia, El Salvador, Eastern Slavonia (Croatia) and Mozambique, which have been enjoying stability and development for over a decade since UN peacekeepers departed. On the other end of the spectrum are the tragedies encountered in Somalia, Rwanda and Bosnia where the deployment of UN peacekeepers proved wholly unsuited to the type of international response required to halt widespread unrest, ethnic cleansing and genocide. The vast majority of cases, however, do not fall on either extreme end of the spectrum, but somewhere in between: a fragile peace continues to hold thanks in good part to 4 In its Resolution 1704 of 25 August 2006, the Security Council authorised the establishment of the United Nations Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste (UNMIT), comprising a civilian component, a small military liaison capacity and over 1,600 UN civilian police. Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 24 Salman Ahmed et al the presence of UN peace operations and their partners, but the prospects of a return to conflict remain reasonably high were they to depart. Expectations also have to be calibrated according to the degree of difficulty these various cases present. Of course, there is no such thing as an ‘easy’ case, but experience would suggest that situations characterised by competition over control of the state are likely to be ‘easier’ than those where the unitary nature of the state itself is in question, as in Georgia or Sudan. Similarly, regional influences are a key factor in determining the likelihood of a peace process’s success. Afghanistan, therefore, must be assumed to have manifold more challenges to confront than Haiti, for example. Equally, a country with a population of 60 million and rich in natural resources, such as the DRC, is probably going to have to contend with a very different set of challenges than one that is significantly less populous and prosperous, such as Burundi. Moreover, a country that once enjoyed decades of stability and prosperity, such as Côte d’Ivoire, or has highly developed central state capacities, such as Sudan, will have very different expectations of the role to be played by a UN peace operation from a country that has only recently come into being, such as Timor-Leste. It is simply unreasonable to expect that the same strategy and level of resources, if applied indiscriminately, will have the same effect. The UN could choose to pursue the same general approach in all instances—namely to help the state exercise its sovereignty more effectively, particularly in terms of being able to cope with conflict without it having to be expressed through violence—but must then accept that the resources or time required to achieve that result will vary considerably from place to place. Indeed, ‘no size fits all’ (Ahmed 2005). Political constraints to overcome The conceptual challenges highlighted in the previous section are joined by a series of politically divisive issues that must be reconciled before arriving at a doctrine that enjoys broad membership support while still providing practical and relevant guidance to personnel on the ground. Five issues, in particular, are worth highlighting. First, fault lines persist within the membership on the degree to which the UN’s most intrusive tool—peace operations—can and should be used as a vehicle of the Security Council to effect political change and provide the environment for economic and social change within its Member States in the interests of international peace and security. On the one hand, it is self-evident that a certain degree of change must be assisted by outsiders because the status quo ante bellum led to war. It is hard to see how the peacekeeping investment will yield the desired results without having a reasonably transformative agenda. On the other hand, the depth of antipathy to foreign-imposed solutions, especially in those parts of the developing world still struggling with the legacy of past colonial rule, cannot be overstated. Efforts designed to help establish a ‘capable state’ can easily be interpreted or portrayed as intended to create a ‘client state’ or imposing a culturally inappropriate model of statehood as the UN discovered in Timor-Leste. There, the UN Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET) came under heavy criticism from the Timorese political elite for failing to give them a greater say in the running of that territory’s affairs. How Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 Shaping the future of UN peace operations 25 does one strike the right balance between making a decisive impact without becoming unwelcome, being asked to leave or, worse, being driven out? Second, while the easiest way to avoid charges of a neo-colonialist agenda is to support and be seen to be supporting a nationally driven and locally owned agenda in an impartial manner, this is far easier said than done. Ideally, a national peacebuilding agenda and the assistance required from the UN and broader international community in its implementation would be spelled out clearly in the peace agreements giving rise to the peace operation’s establishment in the first place. However, not all interventions are initiated on the basis of comprehensive peace agreements that specifically address all the underlying causes of the conflict (if the causes are even well understood).5 Nor do the leaders who enter into the agreements necessarily represent the interests and aspirations of the population as a whole. The fact that these leaders are almost always men further raises the question whether the distinct perspectives and concerns of the over 50 per cent female population are ever adequately addressed. How does a UN peace operation promote national ownership in a meaningful way without undermining its ability to demonstrate change for the better in a reasonable time frame? When different political and factional leaders and groups and/or the general population have differing agendas, how does one determine whose agenda to fall in behind? Should the quest for consensus be allowed to confer veto power on political actors whose positions might be primarily motivated by a thirst for personal power or enrichment, rather than representing the will of the populations whom they claim to lead? Answers to these questions in the abstract will not necessarily hold in practice when the interests and associations of Member States in specific situations diverge. This explains why one of the most important yet challenging roles to be played by UN peace operations in post-conflict settings is in helping to facilitate a genuine national and international consensus around a common agenda for peace and development. Third, views diverge among Security Council members, troop contributors and host countries on the virtues and limits of the use of force by peacekeepers to counter threats to a fragile peace process. There is little dispute that UN peacekeeping operations are not the right instrument to forcefully invade a territory against the will and consent of the recognised authorities or major parties to the conflict. Such enforcement action, as authorised by the Security Council, is far more appropriately handled by those alliances and ad hoc coalitions designed to wage war. However, the distinction between war-fighting and ‘robust’ peacekeeping is not always so clear-cut and a doctrine governing the latter has yet to be fully articulated. Virtually all Member States agree that peacekeepers must be mandated and equipped to prevent armed criminal gangs from endangering their lives, bringing down a peace process or terrorising civilian populations. But, with the potential for ‘collateral damage’ running very high, is the use of military firepower the best 5 The recently established Mediation Support Unit in the Department of Political Affairs has been making impressive headway in assembling an online database of peace agreements and the lessons learned about their strengths and weaknesses during implementation. This Unit’s work could significantly contribute to the development of doctrine for UN peace operations. Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 26 Salman Ahmed et al way to counter armed gangs when deployed in urban centres? This is a dilemma that the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) is still struggling to come to terms with. How does one differentiate between criminal gangs and armed militias with a political agenda and a political constituency, a problem that MONUC has faced in seeking to deal with the uncontrolled armed groups that continue to prey on the local population in the Eastern part of the DRC? When does reaching political accommodation with them rather than trying to defeat them through forceful means make for wise policy, or, conversely, when does it drift into weakness and appeasement? These doctrinal dilemmas are not unique to UN peacekeeping, but confront national armies and regional organisations as well. Conceptual differences on the use of force are compounded by political realities. Over 100 countries contribute troops to UN peacekeeping operations. Their national military doctrines vary considerably. They have diverse fighting capabilities, battle experience, domestic civil –military relations, and historical and cultural ties to the people of the host country. Accordingly, their respective attitudes towards incurring or inflicting casualties vary and fluctuate over time and across missions. Fourth, Member States, particularly those within the Security Council, could be reluctant to have their freedom of action restricted by the articulation of hard and fast rules making clear where it does not make sense to deploy a UN peace operation, if the consequence could be no international response at all. At present, there is no organisation other than the UN that has the wide-ranging mandate and/or capacity to concurrently mount several different multidisciplinary and genuinely multinational peace operations in any part of world. By the same token, major political, personnel and financial contributors to peace processes could be reluctant to sign up to rigid preconditions to be met before any UN peace operation is drawn down or terminated; their ability to sustain domestic support for multi-year investments in any particular operation can vary considerably, depending on the degree to which their national interests are at stake. And fifth, notwithstanding the previous point, the UN cannot go everywhere and do everything. In fact, it remains to be seen that the organisation can take on any additional new operations beyond what is currently on its plate or being planned, without adverse consequences somewhere. High-level political attention in relevant capitals, which is so crucial to overcoming impasse in peace processes, is difficult to marshal on so many different fronts simultaneously. The supply of qualified and well-trained troops, police and civilian specialists is finite. As the numbers of personnel grow it becomes all the more difficult to assure quality and discipline, as the appearance of an unacceptably large number of allegations of sexual exploitation and abuse committed by peacekeepers in the DRC and elsewhere revealed. It is also not an incidental point that DPKO consists of a total of approximately 700 civilian, military and police personnel, all ranks included, with which it supports 100,000 personnel, leads 18 operations in four continents and logistically supports an additional 13 other UN field offices led by the Department of Political Affairs. It should be self-evident that it can only do so much. Views diverge within the membership on whether a limit should be placed on the totality of UN peacekeeping activity or if a massive investment should be made to equip and strengthen DPKO to take on an even greater case-load. Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 Shaping the future of UN peace operations 27 Many different interests would be served if the net level of peacekeeping activity could be reduced gradually over the next few years. Unfortunately, momentum is heading in the other direction with the expectations of expanded deployments to Sudan (Darfur), Lebanon and Timor-Leste. It would be ideal to be able to at least offset these increases by reductions elsewhere. But can the UN afford to apply artificial bases to the significant downsizing or withdrawal of other operations, when a precipitous decline in presence risks unravelling hard-won but not yet self-sustaining progress? Conclusion The list of questions still to be answered is, indeed, quite long. The development of a comprehensive doctrine for UN peace operations will take time and require the full engagement and support of the UN membership and DPKO’s key partners within and outside the UN system. In particular, DPKO will be looking to the newly established Peacebuilding Commission and Peacebuilding Support Office to help clarify the UN’s broader objectives in post-conflict settings. One of the main challenges for the Peacebuilding Commission will be to find ways of drawing down the current case-load of UN peace operations without precipitating a relapse to conflict. If it were able to do so in even just one or two cases initially, it would make a very important contribution. This objective could be achieved by mobilising appropriate resources and attention required to hasten progress in existing missions, by obviating the need for return to places from which peacekeepers have recently withdrawn or by bringing clarity to the doctrine that should guide long-term UN peacebuilding efforts within and outside peacekeeping contexts. Collectively, the UN system has a rich body of experience upon which to draw in trying to develop a more sophisticated understanding of the causes of conflict and the remedies to prevent its resumption. The record of the past five years clearly indicates that the UN has been learning from its mistakes and is, at the very least, in a position to determine what does not work. These lessons must at last be learnt by wiring them back into the doctrine that underpins decision-making in Member State capitals, at UN headquarters and in the field. And then sufficient investment must be made in keeping these lessons updated. Whether or not this opportunity is squandered will, to a large extent, depend on the ability of all concerned to confront critically and dispassionately the many conceptual challenges that remain with openness towards informed scholarship on the subject. It will also require the organisation’s membership to reach a degree of consensus on the complex and often divisive issues outlined in this article. These issues, in turn, reflect the underlying tension between the principles upon which the current international system is founded and the emerging norms and standards that pose a challenge to existing notions of international order. Although the development of a doctrine for UN peace operations cannot be divorced from the wider questions shaping the debate on the future of the international system, it need not be held hostage to it either. The future of war-torn societies and the credibility of the UN as a whole are at stake. The majority of the Downloaded By: [Canadian Research Knowledge Network] At: 16:22 23 May 2007 28 Salman Ahmed et al UN’s members have a common interest in the improved effectiveness of the peace operations to which many of them contribute personnel and financial resources. There is ample incentive for all concerned, therefore, to rise to the challenge of developing a new doctrine that reflects a shared vision for the future of modernday peace operations. 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