01 technical behavioural aspects relevant to acca qualification paper f5 A budget can be defined as a ‘quantified plan relating to a given period’. Although budgets are often stated in terms of money, they need not be and can relate to other variables. A budget can be defined as a ‘quantified plan relating to a given period’. Although budgets are often stated in terms of money, they need not be, and can also relate to quantities made and sold, numbers of employees to be recruited, or weights of material to be consumed. Quantification is important because it adds precision and clarity to a plan. However, it can cause problems as budgets inevitably end up being human obligations and we worry about how the budget was determined, if it is fair, what happens if we fail, are there political dimensions to it, should we ‘cheat’, or will account be taken of factors outside our control? Perhaps most importantly, how are we to reconcile the pressure to achieve short-term budgets (usually carefully monitored) with ambitions for long‑term improved performance which may not be successfully captured by financial statements? Budgets should not be conjured up out of thin air. Without getting too far into the details of long-term strategic planning, organisations will have ambitions which should take into account the wider environment (for example, what is happening in the economy), their markets (for example, what their competitors are doing), and their products (perhaps a certain product is old and its sales declining). This information, often speculative, should allow an organisation to plot its long-term future and then it can dissect this long-term objective into detailed, shorter-term plans. These plans are usually communicated through budgets: what volume of sales do we hope for, what will power costs be, how many employees will we need, what corporation tax will be levied by the government? This article looks at three aspects of budgeting, though there is considerable cross-over between them: ¤ the purposes of a budgets, including motivation and evaluation ¤ budgets as objectives ¤ how to set a budget. THE PURPOSE OF A BUDGET Budgets can accomplish the following: Forecasting Inevitably, if an organisation is going to draft a budget which will be of any use whatsoever, it will have to make forecasts. These forecasts will not always be correct, but at least the organisation has had to look ahead. It won’t see every danger or opportunity, but looking ahead must be better than moving forward with eyes closed. Forecasts are often based on the results of previous periods, updated for known changes. Statistical methods are sometimes used to forecast seasonal effects. Occasionally, specialist data might be purchased to help organisations take economic effects into account as economies improve or deteriorate. Organisations need to beware of forecasts becoming self-fulfilling prophecies. For example, if a downturn is anticipated, and because of that production budgets are cut thus reducing employees’ ability to sell, then there will be a downturn in sales. We will discuss later the difficult issue of budgets which motivate as opposed to a budget which we hope to achieve. student accountant issue 09/2010 Studying Paper F5? Performance objectives 12, 13 and 14 are relevant to this exam 02 of budgeting Planning Once forecasts are completed, planning can be carried out. For example, if the forecast suggests a dramatic increase in demand, then new production facilities might have to be planned. However, it is important to be aware at the planning stage that the forecasts might not be correct, or even if they were correct at the time they were made, things can change. Detailed planning might even require the forecasting stage to be revisited to check estimates or to try to gather more evidence for estimates. Even if forecasting does not have to be reviewed, planning should, as far as possible, remain flexible, just in case the forecast isn’t fulfilled. So, perhaps instead of acquiring new production facilities, it might be better to hire or subcontract initially to see if the forecast is right. If it is, then the organisation can go ahead and buy production facilities for the following period. The planning of cash flows is particularly important. Cash flow forecasts are routinely produced but the organisation which believes them unconditionally will have a short life. Plan for possible shortfalls; build in flexibility; have short term financing facilities planned and on call should things not turn out as well as expected. Coordination In many ways, coordination is an aspect of planning (making sure the company delivers what it has budgeted to sell), but it is worthy of a separate mention. What this heading really highlights is that there has to be a match between the organisation’s structure and ambition and the requirements for its success. In some businesses it is important to meet well-understood customer demands quickly and reliably, and in this context, strict budget targets and measurement can be vital to success. Other businesses might find that flexibility, adaptability and technical innovation are more important. If you don’t know what customers require, then setting targets through budgets is less applicable – and might even be counter-productive because it can limit responses: it’s not in the budget, so we can’t do it. Communication A budget is a succinct and precise way of communicating targets to departments and employees – or at least some aspects of what should be achieved. The problem is not what is specified in the budget, it’s what’s not specified. The budget might state explicitly that 2,000 units should be made in a period, but implicit in the target is that the units should be of a certain quality. The budget might be explicit about the labour rate per hour to be paid, but might not specify the skills that employees should have. Unfortunately, but inevitably, employees will take most notice of explicit requirements and are liable to downgrade other important but unspecified factors. Of course, a lot will depend on how the budgets are imposed and how results are interpreted, but it is important for budgets to communicate requirements as comprehensively as possible. A budget is a succinct and precise way of communicating targets to departments and employees – or at least some aspects of what should be achieved. The problem is not what is specified in the budget, it’s what’s not specified. It is important for budgets to communicate requirements as comprehensively as possible. 03 technical Authorisation A budget can be an authorisation to spend, and can, therefore, be a powerful way of delegating power within an organisation. For example, once you give a department a capital expenditure budget you then let that department get on with it, buying new equipment as it sees fit. The only alternative is to have the departmental head keep coming back for permission for bits and pieces of expenditure. Of course, before the budget is ‘given’ to the department, that department needs to make a case for the expenditure. It will put forward arguments as to why it needs certain capital expenditure (as will other departments), and the budget committee that oversees the budgeting process will have coordinated matters as best it can. So the budget represents pre-authorised expenditure and combines delegation to spend with restraints as to the maximum that should be spent. Motivation A budget represents a target, and aiming towards a target can be a powerful motivator. However, whether the target will actually cause employees to do better is thought to depend on how difficult the target is perceived to be. Employees have different perceptions of targets, but generally it is thought that: ¤ if targets are very low, actual performance can be pulled down from where it might naturally have been ¤ if targets are habitually very high, then employees might give up and, again, performance can be reduced – if you know that no matter how hard you try you will fail to meet the target, it’s easy to conclude that you might as well not try at all. So, the aim is to set budgets which are perceived as being possible, but which entice employees to try harder than they otherwise might have done. Of course, two employees can look at the same budget and have quite different impressions about how difficult it is, but we are unlikely to develop individual budgets tailored to individual psychologies. The concept of a ‘motivating budget’, however, is a powerful one, although the budget which is best for motivating might not represent the results which are actually expected. Managers can, and perhaps should, build in a margin for noble failure. The relationship between budget difficulty and actual performance is typically represented in Figure 1 on page 4, which shows the following: ¤ When the budget is very easy, actual performance is low. It has been pulled down by the low demands made of employees. A budget represents a target, and aiming towards a target can be a powerful motivator. whether the target will cause employees to do better is thought to depend on how difficult the target is perceived to be. ¤ When the budget is very difficult, actual performance is low. Why try when you are doomed to failure? ¤ When a budget is set at the level of the expectations (the best estimate of what performance will actually be), employees are likely to perform as expected. ¤ If a more difficult aspirational budget is set, employees will try harder, and if the budget is judged just right then their actual performance will be at its maximum, though often falling short of the budget. The last situation can give rise to what’s known as the ‘bottom drawer phenomenon’. Managers issue a public, motivational budget, but then have a secret budget (‘kept in the bottom drawer’) which more accurately reflects what they think will actually happen. One is forced to wonder what happens to motivation when the existence of the hitherto secret budget becomes known. What baroque dance of bluff and counter bluff will occur? Evaluation Once budgets have been set as performance targets, inevitably performance will be evaluated. This can be simply a comparison of actual with budgeted performance or alternatively can be a more elaborate comparison of actual performance with flexed budget performance, as is found in variance analysis and operating statements. The evaluation stage is often one of the most contentious as it is here that performance is likely to be criticised and employees will be sensitive. There are many potential difficulties: 04 student accountant issue 09/2010 ¤ The budget might simply have been wrong, unachievable from the outset. ¤ The budget might have become unachievable as the period progresses. ¤ Departments’ performances could interfere with each other’s. ¤ Elements of the budget could be incompatible so meeting one target means missing another. ¤ Although the right decision was made for long-term profitability, this had an adverse effect on the short‑term budget. FIGURE 1: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BUDGET DIFFICULTY AND ACTUAL PERFORMANCE Performance Budgeted performance Expectations budget Motivational budget Hopwood1 identified three distinct ways of using budget information when evaluating performance: 1 Budget constrained style. Here, an employee’s performance is primarily judged on their ability to continuously meet their budgets on a short-term basis. This criterion is held to be more important than all other desirable outcomes. So, for example, over-spending to get a machine repaired quickly so that an important order is shipped would be criticised because the repair budget was exceeded. Not surprisingly, this approach leads to very poor manager–subordinate relationships and also encourages the manipulation and misreporting of information. Easy budget Budget difficulty Very difficult budget 05 technical The balanced scorecard approach of Kaplan and Norton, and the building block approach of Fitzgerald and Norton can be a great help in ensuring that objectives (or targets), or budgets are set for a very wide range of factors, both financial and non-financial. 2 The profit conscious style. Here, employees are primarily judged on their ability to increase the long-term effectiveness of their departments. Budgets are not ignored, but they are regarded more as guidelines than strict targets and are interpreted flexibly. In the above example, the employee would be more likely to be praised for getting the machine repaired as that enabled the organisation to meet customer requirements. 3 Non-accounting style. Here, budgetary information does not play a big part in evaluation. It’s almost impossible to envisage any organisation which is not now subject to financial and therefore budgetary restraints, but from time to time there are elements of an organisations where money is relatively unimportant. An example might be the budget required by an airline company to meet health and safety requirements, because the consequences of not doing so would be disastrous. BUDGETS AS OBJECTIVES Budgets can obviously be used for setting organisational, departmental or individual objectives (or targets). It is often said that, to be successful, objectives should be SMART: ¤ Specific or stated. There’s no point in simply telling a department to be ‘better’. No one quite knows what is meant by ‘better’, so it is essential to be very specific about what is required, in terms such as units sold, travelling expenses, or development costs. ¤ Measurable. To be unequivocally communicated and later evaluated, measurement is essential and this usually means trying to derive a quantitative measurement. Accountancy deals with quantitative measures but that does not mean that accountancy holds all the secrets to successful operations. Quality of output is very important, and is relatively easy to quantify, but routine accountancy documents, such as monthly management accounts, do not usually report quality. ¤ Agreed/accepted/achievable. This desirable attribute of objectives relates to motivational budgets and budget acceptance. Suffice to say that if an objective is not agreed or accepted, or not thought to be achievable, it is unlikely to be very effective. ¤ Relevant. Objectives must be seen as being relevant to the organisation’s purpose, whether that is to make profits, or for a not-for-profit purpose such as curing the sick or educating children. If objectives seem to have no connection with the higher purpose, then employees begin to feel that objectives are set purely as exercises of managerial power (‘I will give you this objective, not because it is useful or necessary, but because it allows me to impose my will’). ¤ Time limited. Fairly obviously, if a time limit is not defined, objectives are unlikely to be effective. The SMART approach to objectives and budgets may seem uncontroversial, but there are several important behavioural aspects to take into consideration. First, more than one objective is needed. As mentioned under ‘Communication’, above, employees know that whatever is set as an objective will be measured and will be used for performance evaluation. Naturally, that is what they will therefore concentrate on, unfortunately often to the exclusion of other important aspects of performance. It is vital, therefore, to try to set objectives for all important measures of performance. Second, not all aspects of desirable performance are easy to measure, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try and that you shouldn’t set objectives. Remember, most accountancy measures are of no interest whatsoever to consumers. Consumers do not care much how much it costs to make something, or how long production takes, or the cost of the machine on which the manufacturing was done. Consumers care about quality, reliable delivery, innovation, style, and how the price of the item and its features compares with competing products. If consumers don’t like what they see they won’t buy, and conventional accountancy will give no clues about why the organisation performs poorly. Third, short-term budget pressures (measured meticulously) can muscle in on longer-term important aspects of performance (poorly measured). The balanced scorecard approach of Kaplan and Norton, and the building block approach of Fitzgerald and Norton can be a great help in ensuring that objectives (or targets), or budgets are set for a very wide range of factors, both financial and non-financial. student accountant issue 09/2010 Looking at the balanced scorecard in more detail, this approach considers a hierarchy of performance perspectives, as shown in Figure 2. FIGURE 2: THE BALANCED SCORECARD – THE HIERARCHY OF PERFORMANCE PERSPECTIVES Financial perspective Customer perspective Internal business perspective Innovation and learning perspective Ultimately, businesses must perform well financially and there should be budgets and objectives set for measures such as return on capital employed, profit, growth, gross profit percentages and so on. This is the financial perspective. However, successful financial performance depends on pleasing customers and we should take care that budgets and objectives take account of factors such as customer satisfaction, repeat business, or market growth. This is the customer perspective. To do this, the organisation needs to ask: ¤ Why do customers like us? Presumably because we are good at what we do, in terms of adequate stockholding, quality, efficient production, flexible responses to customer requests. Budgets should be set for these because they are important. This is the internal business perspective. ¤ Finally, we ask, how can we keep up with competitors and customer demands? Only through continual innovation, improvement and learning. This is the innovation and learning perspective. So the organisation’s financial success (easily and frequently measured by budgets) ultimately depends on more nebulous matters such as innovation, quality, style, and flexibility. Therefore, it is essential that budgets are set for these as well, otherwise they will be ignored as employees strive to meet the often more superficial and short-term conventional budget elements. HOW TO SET A BUDGET Broadly, when setting a budget, there are two choices: ¤ top down imposition ¤ bottom up participation. Organisations should look for the most effective way of setting their budgets: ¤ How do they get employees to pay heed to a budget and to take it seriously? ¤ How can they get accurate budgets? ¤ How can they motivate employees to try hard? In management theory, participation in decision making, such as in budget setting, is usually seen as bringing advantages to organisations. It allows information to be gathered from many sources, thereby increasing the chance that all pertinent factors have been considered. Participation usually increases motivation and commitment as it is very difficult subsequently to ignore the decisions or targets which one has helped develop. 06 However, the demand and expectation for participation and consultation may sometimes have more to do with the polemics of modern management than practical management, because participation: ¤ is time-consuming ¤ requires appropriate knowledge, skill and expectations ¤ may involve selfish motives (for example, building slack into timescales and targets). Participation undoubtedly has it uses, but it is not a cure for all organisational problems. One only has to think of the difficult budgetary decisions that have had to be made by many organisations during the current recession, where cut backs, redundancies and restraint have had to be imposed as a matter of survival. As a result, there has recently been a swing back to more authoritative approaches to budget setting and performance evaluation. It is important to realise that the budget setting approach adopted for one department, for one set of employees, or for one economic or competitive environment, is unlikely to be universally acceptable and managers must be prepared to vary their approach to match the situation. This can be regarded as a contingency (or ‘best‑fit’) approach to budgeting where there is no single correct method. It depends on the manager, the subordinates, the task and the environment. Ken Garrett is a freelance writer and lecturer REFERENCE 1 Hopwood A G, An Accounting System and Managerial Behaviour, Saxon House, 1973. 01 technical a matter of relevant to acca qualification papers F8 and p7 It is one of the most fundamental concepts in auditing; auditors are paid to offer an opinion. It is what they do; it’s their ‘raison d’être.’ Why then, if the audit opinion is so significant, are audit examiners continually underwhelmed by candidates’ appreciation of this topic? This article, which is relevant to Paper F8 and P7, revisits the basic principles of forming an audit opinion and looks at how this knowledge should be applied by considering a past Paper P7 exam question. The basics When an auditor is able to satisfactorily conclude that the financial statements are free from material misstatement they express an unmodified opinion. The complete form and content of the unmodified opinion are presented in ISA 700, Forming an Opinion and Reporting on Financial Statements. However, auditors typically use one of two well-known phrases to reflect their conclusion, either: ¤ ‘The financial statements present fairly, in all material respects...’ or ¤ ‘The financial statements give a true and fair view of…’ When an auditor is able to satisfactorily conclude that the financial statements are free from material misstatement they express an unmodified opinion. Modifications to the opinion There are two circumstances when the auditor may choose not to issue an unmodified opinion: ¤ When the financial statements are not free from material misstatement or ¤ When they have been unable to obtain sufficient appropriate evidence. In these circumstances the auditor has to issue a modified version of their opinion. There are three types of modification. Their use depends upon the nature and severity of the matter under consideration. They are: ¤ the qualified opinion ¤ the adverse opinion ¤ the disclaimer of opinion. Pervasiveness is a matter that confuses many candidates as, once again, it is a matter that requires professional judgment. In this case the judgment is whether the matter is isolated to specific components of the financial statements, or whether the matter pervades many elements of the financial statements, rendering them unreliable as a whole. The bottom line is that if the auditor believes that the financial statements may be relied upon in some part for decision making then the matter is material and not pervasive. If, however, they believe the financial statements should not be relied upon at all for making decisions then the matter is pervasive. Guidance as to the usage of the three forms of modification is provided by ISA 705, Modifications to the Opinion in the Independent Auditor’s Report. This has been summarised in Table 1. Table 1: guidance as to the usage of the three forms of opinion modification Auditor’s Judgment about the Pervasiveness of the Matter Nature of the matter Material but NOT Pervasive Material AND Pervasive Financial statements are Qualified opinion Adverse opinion materially misstated (‘...except for...’) (‘...do not present fairly...’) Unable to obtain sufficient appropriate Qualified opinion Disclaimer of opinion audit evidence (‘...except for...’) (‘...we do not express an opinion...’) student accountant issue 09/2010 Studying Paper F8 or P7? Performance objectives 17 and 18 are relevant to these exams 02 opinion? Emphasis of Matter Emphasis of matter (EOM) is rarely dealt with satisfactorily in the exam. This is mainly because candidates believe that EOM is linked somehow to modifications of the opinion. This is not the case: EOM and modified opinions are totally separate matters. The purpose of an EOM paragraph is to draw the users attention to a matter already disclosed in the financial statements because the auditor believes it is fundamental to their understanding. It is a way of saying to the users: ‘you know that note in the financial statements, the one about the uncertainty surrounding the legal dispute? Well us auditors think it’s really important, so make sure you’ve read it!’. The usage of EOM paragraphs is described in ISA 706, Emphasis of Matter Paragraphs and Other Matter Paragraphs in the Independent Auditor’s Report. This identifies three examples of circumstances when the usage of EOM is appropriate: ¤ when there is uncertainty about exceptional future events ¤ early adoption of new accounting standards and ¤ when a major catastrophe has had a major effect on the financial position. Of course, in all of these examples the auditor can only refer back to disclosures already made in the financial statements. If the directors haven’t disclosed a matter as required by financial reporting standards, then the auditor may conclude that the financial statements are materially misstated and modify the opinion instead. Other Matters ‘Other matter’ paragraphs are used to refer to matters that have not been disclosed in the financial statements that the auditor believes are significant to user understanding. One usage of these paragraphs is where the auditor concludes that there is a material inconsistency between the audited financial statements and the other (unaudited) information contained within the annual report and accounts, as required by ISA 720, The Auditor’s Responsibilities Relating to Other Information in Documents Containing Audited Financial Statements. Application to exam questions Now that we have recapped the basic principles of audit opinions let us consider how these may be applied to an exam scenario. Questions on audit reports in Paper P7 typically fall into two distinct types: critical appraisal of an audit report that has already been written; or explanation of how matters will affect an audit opinion. In both cases the principles affecting the choice of audit opinion are the same. If you face a question of this nature simplify your task by asking the following questions: ¤ Is there a misstatement in the financial statements (ie a fraud or error)? ¤ Has the auditor gathered sufficient appropriate evidence? ¤ Is/could the matter be material? ¤ Does the matter pervade the financial statements? ¤ Does the scenario refer to a disclosure made in the financial statements concerning an uncertain future event? Based on this approach you should be able to pinpoint exactly what form of opinion is appropriate and whether an EOM paragraph is necessary. As an example, Question 5 in the June 2009 Paper P7 exam asked candidates to ‘critically appraise the proposed audit report of Pluto Co for the year ended 31 March 2009’. Relevant extracts from the audit report are given in Illustration 1. The full text may be downloaded from the ACCA website. Please note that the extract is from the International version of the syllabus and refers to International Accounting Standards. The purpose of an EOM paragraph is to draw the users attention to a matter already disclosed in the financial statements because the auditor believes it is fundamental to their understanding. 03 technical This is largely irrelevant to our understanding of the audit opinion; however, the question does deal with matters where the financial reporting requirements across different accounting regimes are broadly similar. The company in the question is a listed company. Illustration 1 (when this question was written, isa 701 was examinable and disagreement with management was a reason for qualifying a report) Adverse opinion arising from disagreement about application of IAS 37 The directors have not recognised a provision in relation to redundancy costs… and so the recognition criteria of IAS 37 have not been met. We disagree with the directors as we feel that an estimate can be made… We feel that this is a material misstatement as the profit for the year is overstated. In our opinion, the financial statements do not show a true and fair view of the financial position of the company as of 31 March 2009... Emphasis of matter paragraph The directors have decided not to disclose the Earnings per share for 2009… Our opinion is not qualified in respect of this matter. Response – redundancy provision We are not going to consider the whole wording, merely the choice of opinion. A more complete response is given in the model answer, which can be accessed via the ACCA website. The first question to ask is whether there is a misstatement. The answer to this is clearly ‘yes’ as the report concludes that the directors have failed to make a provision when they should have. This contravenes the relevant accounting framework (IAS 37, Provisions, Contingent Liabilities and Contingent Assets). The report also clearly states that this is considered to be material to the financial statements. Next we have to consider whether the auditor has been able to gather sufficient appropriate evidence. Once again the answer is ‘yes;’ the auditor has been able to reach a considered conclusion on the matter. At this point we have established that there is a material misstatement. Therefore, we will have to modify our opinion. However, the final version of the modification depends upon whether the matter is pervasive or not. There is no indication in the audit report that the auditor considers the matter pervasive. It should also be considered that redundancy provisions will only affect two areas of the financial statements: current liabilities and wages/salary costs. Does misstatement here render the remainder of the financial statements unreliable? This is an unlikely conclusion. It therefore appears unlikely that an adverse opinion is necessary in the circumstances. A qualified (‘except for’) opinion would appear more appropriate. Earnings per share (EPS) The second issue is that of the EOM paragraph. Ask the question referred to earlier: does the scenario refer to a disclosure made in the financial statements concerning an uncertain future event? Clearly the answer is no. Therefore an EOM paragraph is not appropriate. If this is the case how should the matter be dealt with? Well, go through the same questions again. First, is there a misstatement? Audit reports are a fundamental part of the auditing process and are therefore significant for audit students at all levels. This will continue to be a regular exam topic. If you do struggle with these questions it is NOT a good strategy to suggest every possible form of opinion hoping that one of them will be correct. student accountant issue 09/2010 The directors have failed to disclose the EPS for the year. This contravenes IAS 33, Earnings per Share (and in the UK, FRS 22, Earnings per share), which requires the basic and diluted EPS to be disclosed in the financial statements of all listed companies. There is, therefore, a misstatement in the financial statements. Next we consider whether the matter is material. The clarified ISA 320, Materiality in Planning and Performing an Audit requires the auditor to consider the informational requirements of the users. EPS is a vital investor analysis tool and can therefore be considered material by nature. For listed companies, it is a requirement of financial reporting standards that EPS is disclosed with prominence in the financial statements. There is therefore a material misstatement in the financial statements. Finally the auditor should consider whether the matter is pervasive to the financial statements. The lack of disclosure of the EPS ratio is unlikely to render other elements of the financial statements unreliable; it is an isolated error. In this instance a qualified opinion should be given on the basis of a material misstatement of the financial statements. Application to the Paper F8 Exam The concepts considered above are equally as relevant to the Paper F8 exam. However, the wording of the questions to date has been slightly different from the Paper P7 exam. So far candidates have been provided with short scenarios and asked to either state or explain the effects of the matters on the audit report. The approach discussed above may be applied in the same way to these questions. The matters considered so far (in the December 2007 and December 2009 exams) include: a failure to depreciate non-current/fixed assets, an auditor not being able to attend the year-end inventory/stock count, and a failure to disclose a contingent liability in the financial statements. Candidates should also prepare for questions requiring them to define or explain the terms referred to above. This style of requirement is illustrated in Question 2 from the June 2009 exam paper. Concluding thoughts Audit reports are a fundamental part of the auditing process and are therefore significant for audit students at all levels. This will continue to be a regular exam topic. If you do struggle with these questions it is NOT a good strategy to suggest every possible form of opinion hoping that one of them will be correct. Auditing requires critical appraisal, the use of professional judgement and the ability to offer a reasoned opinion. By asking yourself a series of simplified questions you will go through a critical thought process that allows you to come to your own conclusion and, more importantly, offer your own opinion. This will undoubtedly allow you to present an answer that stands out from the others. Simon Finley is an audit subject specialist at Kaplan Publishing 04 01 technical changes to the study guide part 1 relevant to acca qualification paper P1 June 2011 sees a number of new additions to the Paper P1 Study Guide. I will explain these changes in two consecutive articles. In this issue, I discuss the dynamic nature of risk, management responses to changing risk assessments, risk appetite, and the concepts of business and financial risk. In the next issue of Student Accountant, I conclude my discussion of the Study Guide changes. In seeking to maintain the currency and relevance of the P1 Study Guide, I have made a few changes which come into effect from the June 2011 exam onwards. All are in the risk sections of the syllabus and reflect some of the latest thinking in risk management as well as some issues that have arisen as a result of recent events in business. In this article I discuss each of the changes I have made. I am also introducing the possibility of bringing in some simple arithmetic calculations into Paper P1 exam papers (again, from June 2011 onwards). This is to enable some aspects of risk to be examined that cannot be examined in a solely narrative-based answer. This is a change to the advice I gave when the Paper P1 Study Guide was first introduced. Students should not expect complicated calculations but should be prepared to manipulate numerical data and accordingly, a calculator may be helpful in future Paper P1 exams. figure 1: the nature of risk assessment Static Dynamic Increasing environmental change and turbulence New C1(c): Explain the dynamic nature of risk assessment This entry into the Study Guide was added to emphasise the fact that risks are not static: they change over time and between situations. One of the key features of any business environment is that the things that affect an organisation, either internal or external factors, are very changeable. In some situations, environmental factors change relatively little, but in other environments, risk factors can change a great deal. These are sometimes called ‘turbulent’ environments, shown in Figure 1. As with environmental analyses in strategic analysis, it is important to recognise that the extent of environmental change can be understood as a continuum (see Figure 1 above). Continua of any type describe two extremes and a variable state between the two extremes. At the left extreme is the situation in which nothing in the internal or external environment of an organisation ever changes. This means that no risks ever change from year to year – no new risks materialise and no existing ones disappear or weaken. Of course this is only a theoretical situation and doesn’t exist in practice. It’s the same at the other extreme – a situation in which the environment changes so frequently that all risks are changing all the time. Again, this situation doesn’t exist in reality, but situations close to it do exist. It is also the case that the risks that an organisation faces can change with changes in the internal activities as well as with external environmental changes. New product launches, changes in financial structure, changes in markets served, etc, can also change the risks faced by an organisation. What matters is to appreciate that organisations differ in how exposed they are to changes in internal and external risks. Some are very changeable, perhaps in industries that are subject to a wide range of local and international influences (perhaps shipping, telecommunication and technology) student accountant issue 09/2010 Studying Paper P1? Performance objectives 1, 2 and 3 are relevant to this exam 02 paper p1 for june 2011 while others are subject to fewer and less changeable risks. In other words, they occupy different positions along the static‑dynamic continuum. The result of this is that the assessment of any given risk can change and, thereby, the strategy for managing that risk. The probability or impact of a risk can change over time and this change can move a risk on the likelihood/ impact map which is often used in risk assessment (see Figure 2). Suppose, for example, Risk A has a high potential impact and is assessed as having a 60% likelihood of materialising in a given period of time. Then a change in the environment or in the company’s internal controls occurs which makes the likelihood much less, say down to 25%. The risk would then move on the graph, as shown on Figure 2, from position A to A’. Similarly, suppose a risk is very unlikely but with a high potential impact (position B). A change in the environment might decrease the potential impact of the risk, moving it on the map to position B’. In both cases, the risks have moved, as a result of the environmental change, to a new area of the map. In both cases, the strategy adopted for managing the risk will be likely to change. New C1 (d): Explain the importance and nature of management responses to changing risk assessments Following on from the discussion above about changing risks, it follows that management must tailor its risk management to match the nature of the risk threat. In terms of policy, those organisations in more changeable (or more dynamic) environments must make a greater investment in risk management strategies in order to manage the range and changeability of those risks. It follows that an organisation’s figure 2: risk assessment probability High A Likelihood (probability) A’ B’ B Low Low Consequences (impact/hazard) High risk management must match the complexity of its risks. To fail to do this would be an incongruity between risk and response which could, in turn, be a failure in the strategy of the organisation. Some of the themes relevant to this entry are touched on in the other additions to the Study Guide which I have described in the remainder of this article and in the follow-on article in the next issue of Student Accountant. New C1 (e): Explain risk appetite and how this affects risk policy (2) This addition to the Study Guide introduces the notion of risk appetite which, as its name suggests, is a measure of the general attitude to accepting risk. Some individuals live their lives in a very careful way, seeking to avoid risks and withdrawing from situations in which a risk might be experienced. Other people, conversely, positively seek out and thrive on risk. They might enjoy gambling, parachuting, scuba diving and similar activities with very high potential hazards/impacts. In the same way, some organisations are risk averse while others are risk seeking. Rather than doing this for the ‘thrill’ of it, however, risk-seeking organisations generally seek risk in the belief that higher risk is often associated with higher returns. This range of possible attitudes to risk can be represented on a continuum (see Figure 3 on page 3). 03 technical figure 3: risk attitude continuum Risk averse More likely to refuse and avoid risk As with any other continuum, the two ends represent to two possible extremes while ‘real life’ takes place at various points along the continuum between the two extremes. At the left-hand extreme is the situation of an organisation that always accepts risk and is actively risk seeking. At the other extreme are organisations (also mainly hypothetical rather than real) that never accept any risks and manage the strategy to always avoid situations in which risk may occur. Risk appetite has an important influence on the risk controls that the organisation is likely to have in place. Organisations that actively seek to avoid risks, perhaps found more in the public sector, charitable sector and in some ‘process’-oriented companies, do not need the elaborate and costly systems that a risk seeking company might have. Organisations such as those trading in financial derivatives, volatile share funds and venture capital companies will typically have complex systems in place to monitor and manage risk. In such companies, the management of risk is likely to be a strategic core competence of the business. Risk seeking More likely to accept risk New C2 (c): Describe and evaluate the nature and importance of business and financial risks In the original Study Guide for Paper P1, I listed a range of common risks encountered by organisations in section C2b. This list was far from comprehensive but did serve to illustrate some of the specific risks that are commonly faced. In adding this new entry to the Study Guide, I want to clarify the fact that there are other risks that can affect organisations. Business risks are strategic risks that threaten the health and survival of a whole business. A number of factors can increase business risk and one of the purposes of the annual audit is to review the factors that might increase business risk such as the presence of any operational, financial or compliance failures that might affect the business as a ‘going concern’. Business risk varies greatly between companies and sometimes over time, and is generally thought to be greatest for young businesses or those in cyclical industries such as tourism. The banking crisis in 2008 and 2009 taught us, however, that business risk can also apply to much older and more established companies. A typical way of considering business risk is to examine the probability of a period of poor earnings and possible failure, and also to consider the potential impact of that failure. This brings us back to the notion of stakeholders because the issue is ‘impact upon whom?’ The stakeholders most affected by business risk depend on the situation. If the business fails altogether, the employees will be greatly affected but the shareholder loss will depend on the individual exposure (the proportion of a portfolio invested in the failing company). If the business experiences a period of poor performance, the shareholders may be more adversely affected than the employees. One of the major causes of business risk is financial risk. Large variability in cash flow and liquidity introduces instability to the financial health of the business. While these can be caused by trading fluctuations, the financial structure of a business can also be a strong contributory factor. High gearing, for example, can place pressure on cash flow because of the need to service debt in a way that would not be necessary with a higher proportion of equity capital. So while debt can be a favourable means of financing when interest rates are low or when equity capital is difficult to raise, it increases financial risk because of the increased likelihood of strained cash flow and defaulting on debt repayment. Financial risks are typically of most concern to lenders and those that depend upon a company’s cash flow such as suppliers who rely on prompt payment of payables. David Campbell is examiner for Paper P1