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Sukuk & Islamic Banking
Tapping a Growing Pool of Islamic Liquidity
KHALID FERDOUS HOWLADAR, GLOBAL HEAD – ISLAMIC FINANCE
November 2015, Istanbul
Agenda
1 - Islamic Banks
A Growing Pool of Islamic Liquidity
2 - Sukuk Market
Growing and Diversifying
Dynamics of Demand for Islamic Finance to fund Long-Term Investments
2
1
Islamic Banks
A Fast Growing Pool of Islamic Liquidity
Dynamics of Demand for Islamic Finance to fund Long-Term Investments
3
Islamic Banks
Assets of Islamic finance institutions continue to grow at a faster rate than
conventional banks assets
Financing of Islamic banks CAGR (2008-13)
Financing of conventional banks CAGR (2008-13), excluding Islamic windows for UAE, KSA & Bahrain
countries
Turkey
Malaysia
Bahrain
Qatar
Kuwait
KSA
UAE
Sources:
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Central Banks data - Qatar, Bahrain, Malaysia and Turkey banking systems.
Annual reports and Moody's BFM data for rated banks - UAE, KSA and Kuwait.
Annual reports for non rated banks in UAE and KSA.
Islamic windows assumptions for UAE, KSA and Bahrain.
Data as of December 2008 and December 2013 for all banking systems.
Dynamics of Demand for Islamic Finance to fund Long-Term Investments
4
Islamic Banks
Islamic finance enjoys strong penetration in many markets but still has room to grow
Total Islamic Financing
Market share of Islamic financing
160
100%
140
90%
80%
120
USD billion
70%
100
60%
50%
80
40%
60
30%
40
20%
20
10%
0
0%
Oman ** UAE
KSA
Kuwait
Qatar
Bahrain Malaysia Turkey
Sources:
* Total Assets data used for Oman banking system.
Central Bank data - UAE, KSA, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Malaysia and Turkey.
Annual reports and Moody's BFM data for rated banks- UAE, KSA, Kuwait/ Annual reports for non rated banks – UAE and KSA
Islamic windows assumptions included in Islamic financing for UAE, KSA and Bahrain.
** Oman data from Thomson Reuters study, dated June 2014/ Data as of YE2013 for all banking systems except Oman
Dynamics of Demand for Islamic Finance to fund Long-Term Investments
5
2
Sukuk Markets
Growing, Extending & Diversifying
Dynamics of Demand for Islamic Finance to fund Long-Term Investments
6
Global Short-Term & Long-Term Sukuk Issuances
Volumes falling in line with fixed income trends in the GCC & Emerging Markets
Sovereign
Government-related entity
Other Corporate
Financial Institution
< 1 Year Sukuk Paper
160
140
$ Billion
120
100
80
60
40
20
-
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Jun-15
Sources: Islamic Finance Information Service, Moody’s estimates
2012 was an outlier year due to strong EM inflows and 2014 saw Malaysian issuance reductions offset by new
volumes from entrants such as UK, Luxembourg, South Africa, and Hong Kong.
Dynamics of Demand for Islamic Finance to fund Long-Term Investments
7
Sukuk Issuance Trends
Maturities are extending with five and ten year buckets the most common
Dynamics of Demand for Islamic Finance to fund Long-Term Investments
8
Sukuk Issuance Trends
Longer Maturities are becoming more common
LT Sukuk Paper Outstanding (H1 2015) - By
LT Sukuk Paper Issued by Tenor 2001- 2014
1 - 5 yrs
30%
> 20 yrs
7%
1 - 5 yrs
48%
5 - 10 yrs
43%
> 20 yrs 5%
10 - 20
yrs 20%
5 - 10 yrs
34%
10 - 20yrs
13%
Dynamics of Demand for Islamic Finance to fund Long-Term Investments
9
Infrastructure Financing Drives Longer Maturities
Infrastructure Sukuk concentrated in Malaysia
Infrastructure Sukuk Outstanding by Obligor’s Country
Infrastructure Sukuk Issuance per Year / Obligor’s Country ($ million)
Malaysia
Others
4%
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Others
35000
30000
U.A.E
8%
Malaysia
69%
25000
20000
15000
Saudi
Arabia
19%
10000
5000
Source: IFIS, Moody’s estimates
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Huge infrastructure needs in the GCC, Asia and Africa will boost infrastructure Sukuk
issuance going forward
Dynamics of Demand for Islamic Finance to fund Long-Term Investments
10
10
International Sukuk Issuances are Increasing
GCC states’ US dollar issuances are driving sukuk globalisation
LT Sukuk Issuance by Currency in 2014
International Sukuk Issuance by Country
Others 3%
IDR 6%
Others
QAR 7%
Issued in 2014
Total Outstanding
Pakistan
SAR 8%
Kuwait
MYR
42%
Bahrain
Hong Kong
USD 34%
Indonesia
Malaysia
LT Sukuk Issuance by Currency 2001-2014
Turkey
AED 2%
Qatar
QAR 3%
IDR 3%
Saudi Arabia
SAR 7%
USD 25%
MYR
54%
United Arab Emirates
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Dynamics of Demand for Islamic Finance to fund Long-Term Investments
11
Sukuk Market: Drivers of Growth
Drivers are strong and market is globalizing
The drivers of this continued growth include
– global investors’ increasing familiarity with sukuk instruments
– increasing ‘Islamic’ investment liquidity looking for sukuk
– increasing retail & corporate demand for Islamic financial services
– increasing standardisation of unsecured sukuk structures
– increased policy support from governments of Muslim and now non-Muslim countries
2015/2016 Sukuk issuance trends & drivers
– Major reductions in 2015 Malaysian Sukuk paper market on the back of lower short term issuance
from Bank Negara and some fiscal consolidation
– Uncertainty regarding US rate rise and difficult conditions in the GCC have hit regional issuance for
2015
– Declining liquidity in the GCC (due to low oil prices) coupled with modest/strong growth is forcing
GCC banks to tap longer term funding
– Sovereign deficits compounded by high social spending and investment needs are pushing GCC
governments to issue bonds/sukuk
–
Dynamics of Demand for Islamic Finance to fund Long-Term Investments
12
Quick Note - Asset Backed Sukuk
Better suited for long term financing
Shari’ah strongly encourages asset-backed finance. Principles of Tangibility, Asset
ownership, risk/profit sharing are inherent in such structures
However the failures of conventional securitisation (e.g. sub-prime) in the global crisis and
regional preferences for name-lending has meant little appetite for asset-backed
instruments despite the fact that (rated) asset-backed sukuk performed much better than
their asset-based (unsecured) counterparts
Islamic securitisation is well suited for longer-term assets and project finance. Assets and
liabilities are perfectly match funded with genuine risk transfer. It provides lower funding
costs plus a market-based valuation for securitised assets.
However Islamic banks not keen to support longer term projects given their own heavy
short-term funding bias and regional institutional investor base is weak.
Dynamics of Demand for Islamic Finance to fund Long-Term Investments
13
Islamic Finance Group Contacts
BANKING
BANKING
INSURANCE
CORPORATE
SOVEREIGN
Khalid Howladar
Global Head
+971.4.237.9542
khalid.howladar@moodys.com
Arif Bekiroglu
Europe
+44.207.772.1713
arif.bekiroglu@moodys.com
Antonello Aquino
Europe, Middle East and Africa
+44.207.772.1582
antonello.aquino@moodys.com
Rehan Akbar
Middle East & North Africa
+971.4.237.9565
rehan.akbar@moodys.com
Gabriel Torres
Americas
+1.212.553.3769
gabriel.torres@moodys.com
Olivier Panis
North Africa & Levant
+971.4.237.9533
olivier.panis@moodys.com
Simon Chen
Asia Pacific
+65.6398.8305
simon.chen@moodys.com
Mohammed Ali Riyazuddin Londe
Europe, Middle East & North Africa
+971.4.237.9503
mohammedali.riyazuddinlonde@moodys.com
Nidhi Dhruv
Asia Pacific
+ 65.6398.8315
nidhi.dhruv@moodys.com
Aurelien Mali
Africa
+971.4.237.9537
aurelien.mali@moodys.com
Nitish Bhojnagarwala
Middle East
+971.4.237.9563
nitish.bhojnagarwala@moodys.com
Eugene Tarzimov
Asia Pacific
+65.6398.8329
eugene.tarzimov@moodys.com
Graeme Knowd
Asia Pacific
+81.3.5408.4149
graeme.knowd@moodys.com
Vincent Tordo
Asia Pacific
+65.6398.8331
vincent.tordo@moodys.com
Mathias Angonin
Middle East & North Africa
+971.4.237-9548
mathias.angonin@moodys.com
Mik Kabeya
Sub-Saharan Africa
+971.4.237.9590
mik.kabeya@moodys.com
David Fanger
North America
+1.212.553.4342
david.fanger@moodys.com
Sally Yim
Asia Pacific
+852.3758.1450
yatmansally.yim@moodys.com
Maisam Hasnain
Asia Pacific
+852.3758.1420
maisam.hasnain@moodys.com
Christian de Guzman
Asia Pacific
+65.6398.8327
christian.deguzman@moodys.com
Dynamics of Demand for Islamic Finance to fund Long-Term Investments
15
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