10GBASE-T: Economic Feasibility
Presented by:
Ted Rado, Analogix Semiconductor
With Assistance from:
10GBASE-T CFI Group
Economic Feasibility Factors
• Device Cost
• Cable Type
Hard Costs
• Connector Type
• System Manufacturing Complexity
Soft Costs
• On-going Maintenance
Total Solution Is More Than Just Silicon Cost
Matching Up With Alternatives
• Economic Feasibility
Depends on Perspective
• Comparison is not just with
Copper Alternative
1000BASE-T
10GBASE-T
10G
Fiber Optics
Performance of Fiber At the Cost of Copper
Device Cost
• 10GBASE-T vs. 1000BASE-T
– Absolute cost will be 8-9x and
trend toward 2-3x
– Cost per gigabit will start at 0.8x
Relative Cost (1G ’04=1)
1G vs. 10G Relative Cost Target
10
8
6
4
2
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
Time
• 10GBASE-T vs. Fiber Solution
1G
10G
10G Fiber vs. 10GBASET Relative Costs
Relative Cost (Fiber’04=1)
– E-only vs. EOE
– Absolute cost will target 0.4x
fiber and trend to 0.10x
2008
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2004
2005
Source: Cahners In-stat, CFI Group
2006
Time
2007
2008
Fiber
10G
Device Costs
• Like its predecessors, 10GBASE-T benefits from silicon
efficiencies
ASP (Relative
to Octal 1GBASE-T ’04)
ASP (Relative to Cotal 1GBASE-T ’04)
– Using standard, low-power process; integration of multiple
transceivers; broad market potential
10
9
8
7
6
10/100 Quad/Octal
1000BASE-T Single
1000BASE-T Quad/Octal
5
10GBASE-T Single
10GBASE-T Quad/Octal
4
3
2
1
Source: Cahners In-stat,
CFI Group
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
Cable and Connector Types
• Use of installed cable creates minimal incremental cost
• Cost differential between types of cable is large
Relative Costs of 100’ Cable+Connectors
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Fi
be
Tw r
i
In nAx
fi n
ib
an
d
7
M
M
C
A
T
6
AT
C
5E
AT
C
AT
5
Source: L-com, CDW, CFI Group
C
Relative Cost (CAT5=1)
• Need to determine effect on overall solution cost
Cable and Connector Types
• 10GBASE-T vs. 1000BASE-T
– Installed base of cable
most likely
– New install cost dominated
by device vs. C&C
New 1G Installation
New 10GCu Installation
C&C
Device
C&C
Device
Cuts Cost Differential
• 10GBASE-T vs. Fiber
– Less likely to have installed
cable
– Total cost dominated by
device in both cases
New 10G Fiber Install
C&C
Device
New 10GCu Installation
C&C
Device
Cost Differential Remains Constant
Manufacturing & Maintenance
• Soft costs still can be major driver of economic
feasibility
• 10GBASE-T soft costs lower than fiber alternative
–
–
–
–
No “clean room” module assembly
More automated system manufacturing
Less power consumption and board space
No fiber optics connector cleaning issues
• Goal of 10GBASE-T is to approximate 1000BASE-T
soft costs so differential will be negligible
Other “Economic” Considerations
• Packaging and Module Integration
• Power Considerations
• Process Discussion
• Cost of EMI compliance
• Compatibility with 1000BASE-T
• Continue to Verify and Track Hard and Soft Costs
For Consideration in Study Group
Summary
• Total cost of ownership is more than device cost
• Comparison against both 10G fiber as well as
multiple 1GCu are valid
• Most relevant comparison is with 10G fiber solution
– Even at start, cost of ICs will be a fraction of fiber costs
– Cost of cable will be much less and approach zero, if
installed base is used
– Soft costs such as manufacturing and on-going
maintenance are low
• 10GBASE-T has feasibility even compared to 1GCu
– Draws on same cost reduction curve; lower cost/Gb
– Benefits from standard silicon manufacturing process
– Can possibly leverage same cable base