BUSA 3110 – Spring 2015 Statistics for Business – Complete Syllabus 3 semester hours Professor: Office: Email: Dr. Kim Melton 132 Newton Oakes Center (Dahlonega) kmelton@ung.edu Phone: (706) 867-2724 Office Hours Monday, Wednesday, and Friday: 10:50 – 11:50 Monday and Wednesday: 1:30 – 3:00 Other times by appointment (or by chance—just drop by) Prerequisites MATH 2400 with a grade of at least C and some experience using spreadsheets Texts and other support material 1) Keller textbook and CengageBrain/Aplia bundle – includes selected chapters from Statistics for Management and Economics, 9th Edition by Keller (c) 2012 and an access code to the Aplia on-line learning system. The entire book is available online through Aplia. NOTE: A used copy of the custom book is not sufficient. 2) Melton Textbook, Statistics for Process Improvement Revised edition, Melton (c) 2004, Cengage/Thomson Learning 3) Material provided in the UNG’s Desire2Learn (D2L) site for this course D2L is accessible at https://ung.view.usg.edu/ 4) University open website: http://faculty.ung.edu/kmelton/BUSA3110.html 5) Access to the web, Excel, and JMP Statistical Discovery Software. Course Objectives - to become familiar with common statistical methods for understanding and improving organizational performance - to gain experience using software to analyze data - to understand the limitations of the statistical methods covered - to be able to communicate how statistical studies were conducted and the results of those studies. Methods of Instruction Class will meet in a traditional classroom on Mondays and Wednesdays. These will use a combination of interactive lectures to present theoretical material and presentation of situations where the theory can be applied. Most Fridays, class will meet in the computer lab for hand-on instruction. Regardless of the location, you will be expected to actively engage in the class through asking and answering questions. Computation is a key part of any statistical analysis; but in today’s environment, most of the calculations can be done by a calculator or computer. JMP Statistical Discovery Software will be used for most of the analysis in the course. Instructions for downloading JMP to your computer are available later in this syllabus. Working homework will provided the experience necessary for you to use statistics successfully. Material will be presented in four segments in the context of the Data, Information, Knowledge/Understanding, Wisdom continuum where we will focus on the role of collection and analysis of data in organizational decision making and improvement. Data Information Knowledge Understanding Wisdom Data: The context free “values” [including nominal, ordinal, and interval/ratio scales of measurement for values] Information (results from processing data): Describes characteristics of a situation; answers questions such as who, what, where or how many? Knowledge (describes): Describes characteristics of a situation; answers questions such as how to?; used to make informed decisions about actions Understanding (explains): answers why questions; can lead to efficient behavior [Note: Knowledge and Understanding are often collapsed into the term knowledge] Wisdom (relates to effectiveness, development, and judgment of value): requires understanding inter-relationships, assumptions, and limitations underlying the knowledge and the potential long-term impact of decisions and actions Topics Measurement scales Data Deterministic vs. probabilistic decision making Populations & samples Changing role of statistics Summarizing data: Information graphically (data visualization) numerically Parameters & statistics Statistical inference for one variable Knowledge and Relationships between variables Quantitative and qualitative predictors Understanding Interaction Theory development & testing Model building Theory vs. Reality Wisdom (integrated across other topics) Differences between “population studies” and “process studies” Tools/Techniques Operational definitions Statistical thinking Sampling “Big Data” / Analytics Intro to JMP Graphs Summary statistics Confidence Intervals Hypothesis Testing Regression Analysis (simple linear, regression and multiple linear regression) using JMP Testing hypotheses Comparing models Recognizing theoretical assumptions and impact of application in the real world Statistics for improving processes *Specifics on grading are provided in the Grading Section of this syllabus. Graded Assignments* Challenge: 16 points Choice: max of 4 points may apply to your final grade Challenge: 24 points Choice: max of 6 points may apply to your final grade Challenge: 24points each Choice: max of 6 points may apply to your final grade Challenge: 24 points each Choice: max of 4 points may apply to your final grade Computer Software We will use JMP Statistical Discovery Software. This software is available for you to install on your own computer (Windows or Mac) at http://software.ung.edu . JMP is also available in labs on campus or for use via the “Virtual Lab” available through UNG. Information and access to the Virtual Lab is available at: https://my.ung.edu/departments/informationtechnology/Pages/Remote-Access.aspx. There is a link on the right side of the page with instructions. Since many of the data files that we will use are provided in Excel format, access to Excel will also be assumed. If you don’t have MS Office, you can download the software by going to http://software.ung.edu . The JMP and Excel software you will need for this course is provided through your student fees. Course Resources You will have a number of resources that are intended to supplement the classroom sessions. None of these resources stand on their own – each provides a different aspect of support. Textbooks: The Keller (custom book based on the 9th edition of Statistics for Management and Economics) and Melton book provide written support for material presented in class and are the source of most homework problems that become the “test bank” for the final. The data needed for most of the problems in the Keller book is identified by a small “brownish” file name at the start of the problem (e.g., Xr18-10). These files are available in Aplia and will be provided in D2L. The data for the files in the Melton book are available on the university website. Resource Material Covered Keller Chapters 1-5, 11-12, 16-18 Keller Chapters 7-10, 13 Aplia assignments (Choice assignments) Melton Process Improvement no Complete Keller 9 YES Custom book used YES no YES no YES no no no no YES no no Bundle (purchased new) YES YES (online/Aplia) Melton University Website: This site (http://faculty.ung.edu/kmelton/BUSA3110.html) will be used to post all information for the first two weeks of class and to post other material that would be considered in the public domain—including a number of tutorials and links to resources related to JMP. Desire to Learn (D2L): D2L is the Learning Management System adopted by the University System. You login to this system (https://ung.view.usg.edu/) using the same login that you use for your e-mail. D2L is your primary “go to” place for materials specific to your course and will be used to post homework assignments, to provide copies of the slides used in class, and to post additional material that needs to be limited to students in the class. Homework assignments will be posted based on the day assigned (and should be completed prior to the next class meeting day). Links to the university website and to the Aplia login page will be posted in the news sections of the D2L site. CengageBrain/Aplia (Aplia for short): If you purchase the bundle, the custom textbook provides you with an Aplia access code. The course key specific for the Spring 2015 Melton sections of this class is D5AU-B8UX-XLJ7. Aplia contains an electronic version of the entire 9th edition of the Keller textbook, the Excel files (zipped) that are needed to work the problems in the Keller book (and we will be able to import the Excel files into JMP), and an on-line graded homework system. Aplia requires that all assignments be posted based on the due date. Most of the Aplia graded homework assignments use a “grade it now” function that allows you to obtain immediate feedback and then attempt up to two more problems covering the same topics. Grading Your grade will come from a combination of three different types of assignments—Challenge assignments, Choice assignments, and the final exam. You must earn at least 90 points to receive an A; 80 for a B; 70 for a C; and 60 for a D. Remember that all BBA students must earn a grade of C or higher in this course to graduate. Challenge assignments may be short in-class quizzes, small-group assignments, or out-of-class assignments. All of these are considered as required and will be announced ahead of time. A total of 88 points will be available through Challenge assignments. Most of these assignments will be graded out of 8 points—so you can expect approximately 11 of these during the semester. Choice assignments will be available for each segment of the course, and the point values will vary depending on the complexity of the assignment. The course is divided into three distinct segments and a fourth segment that overlaps the first three and extends beyond them. For each segment of the course, the maximum number of points from Choice assignments that can be applied to your final grade is shown in the figure below. Therefore, the most points from Choice assignments is 20 (4 from the Data segment + 6 from the Information segment + 6 from the Knowledge segment + 4 from the Wisdom segment). Each Choice assignment will be designated to identify the associated segment of the course (D for Data; I for Information; K for Knowledge; and W for Wisdom) Data (4 max) Information (6 max) Knowledge/Understanding (6 max) Wisdom (4 max) To earn credit on a Choice assignment, you must complete the assignment at a passing level (at least 70% of the available points). So if a problem is worth up to 4 points, you must earn at least 2.8 points to receive credit toward your final. You may attempt any (or all) Choice assignments, and you will receive feedback on all assignments submitted by the deadline. Aplia graded homework assignments will be included as part of the Choice assignments. The points listed (within Aplia) will vary greatly, but these will carry a common 2 point max on each assignment. You must earn at least 70% of the points available on an Aplia assignment for this to be included in your final grade. If successful, multiply your percent correct (as a decimal) by 2 to get the grade for the Choice assignment. Homework problems will be assigned each class period. You are expected to complete these assignments by the class period after they are assigned. These problems are not graded during the semester, but they become the test bank for the final exam. These assignments help you master the material as you go through the semester and prepare you for the graded assignments and the following material. Your Final Exam is open book, open notes, and closed neighbor. The questions for the final will be drawn from the ungraded homework problems that have been assigned during the semester. Your final will consist of five to eight problems. You will be allowed to select two of these, and each will be graded out of 8 points. These grades can replace two lower grades from the Challenge assignments. Final exams times are scheduled by the university and are shown below. Class Time 8:00 Monday/Wednesday/Friday 9:00 Monday/Wednesday/Friday 10:00 Monday/Wednesday/Friday Final Time 8:00 – 10:00 Friday, May 1, 2015 8:00 – 10:00 Monday, April 27, 2015 10:20 – 12:20 Friday, May 1, 2015 General Expectations Attendance: You are expected to attend class each day. Students who fail to attempt 24 points of Challenge assignments or miss five regularly scheduled class sessions will be considered to have violated the attendance policy. Meeting either of these criteria will result in a grade of WF. Preparation: Students should arrive on time, stay for the entire class, and be prepared for class. “Prepared” means that each student should have read the assigned material and attempted all assigned problems. Students who are unable to complete an assigned problem should come prepared to ask questions about the problem. Students who are unable to determine how to start a problem should seek help during office hours or via e-mail prior to class time. Failure to work homework problems will make understanding more advanced topics more difficult. Students should plan to spend approximately six hours per week on class material outside of class. Participation: Statistics is like a foreign language to many students; and, like learning a foreign language, learning statistics requires active involvement on your part. Part of the process of learning statistics involves new ways of thinking. You are expected to attempt to answer questions in class and to ask questions as they arise. Answers that appear to be “common sense” can be misleading when variation is taken into account. As a consequence, you will often be asked to explain the thought process that you used to reach an answer. Sometimes the greatest steps in learning come from understanding when/why a specific answer is not appropriate in a given setting. Graded Assignments: Dates for in-class graded Challenge assignments will be announced in class and on D2L. Dates and instructions for submitting Challenge and Choice out-of-class assignments will be included with the assignment. Most out-of-class graded assignments will be posted well before the deadline. Out-of-class Challenge assignments submitted late will be subject to a penalty of at least 10% per day. Choice assignments submitted late will be reviewed for feedback, but no grade will be assigned. Unless otherwise specified, electronic submission should be in a format readable by MS Office 2013 for Windows. FAXed assignments are not accepted without prior approval. Make-ups: If a student will miss Challenge assignment due to an excused absence, arrangements must be made prior to the time of the assignment for a make-up. If the absence is unplanned, timely notification and documentation will be required to consider a make-up. No make-ups will be given for unexcused absences and a grade of 0 will be recorded. Individual and Collaborative Work: Students may collaborate on homework problems that form the test bank for the final. This means that students may work together; this does not mean that students may divide an assignment so that each student does separate parts. All work on assignments that are submitted for grading is to be completed by the individuals named on the submitted assignment. If an assignment is listed as individual (or to be done independently), no conversation about the assignment may take place between individuals; for graded group assignments, the submitted work must be completed by the individuals in the group submitting the paper. Inappropriate communication (virtual or otherwise) will be treated as a violation of the Academic Integrity Policy (as described in the Student Handbook). Internet search engines or plagiarism detection software may be used to determine if students have plagiarized material and violated this policy. Calculator: Each student is expected to have (and know how to use) a calculator with statistical mode. Calculators on cell phones may not be used for quizzes. Extra Credit: The grading approach providing 108 points prior to the final and for the final exam allowed to replace two Challenge assignments effectively provides extra credit. Occasionally, graded assignments will include an extra credit question. The only other kind of extra credit will come when a student reports a significant mistake in support material provided on D2L or the course website. The first student to report the error will be eligible for the extra credit. Telephones: North Georgia uses Blackboard Connect Emergency Notification System to communicate emergency messages to the university community. If you have not already gone to your Banner account and registered your number(s), please consider doing so. During class, please set your cell phone to vibrate, put it away, and refrain from answering calls or checking text messages if your phone is the only one “ringing.” Telephones must be put away during class. Supplemental University Information: Please see http://ung.edu/academic-affairs/policies-and-guidelines/supplemental-syllabus.php for university policies related to: Disability Services Academic Integrity Disruptive Behavior Class Evaluations Academic Exchange Inclement Weather* Course Grades Withdrawal Process * For inclement weather announcements, if the University is closed at the start time for the class, I will consider the class cancelled for the day. For example: If the University announces a 9:30 opening, the 8:00 and 9:00 classes will be cancelled for the day; the 10:00 class will not be cancelled. Also, see http://ung.edu/academics/academic-calendar.php for important dates for the semester (drop/add, withdrawal, breaks, etc.).