MBA 566 Homework 2 (due 4/3/2013) Individual Work: please submit your own work for this part Topic Assignments Chapter 14 Problems (8), (11), (18), (19), (20); CFA Problem 2 Chapter 15 Problem (10); CFA Problems (4), (6), (9) Chapter 16 Problem (20); CFA Problem (2) Solution: 14.8. The bond price will be lower. As time passes, the bond price, which is now above par value, will approach par. 14.11. a. On a financial calculator, enter the following: n = 40; FV = 1000; PV = –950; PMT = 40 You will find that the yield to maturity on a semi-annual basis is 4.26%. This implies a bond equivalent yield to maturity equal to: 4.26% * 2 = 8.52% Effective annual yield to maturity = (1.0426)2 – 1 = 0.0870 = 8.70% b. Since the bond is selling at par, the yield to maturity on a semi-annual basis is the same as the semi-annual coupon rate, i.e., 4%. The bond equivalent yield to maturity is 8%. Effective annual yield to maturity = (1.04)2 – 1 = 0.0816 = 8.16% c. Keeping other inputs unchanged but setting PV = –1050, we find a bond equivalent yield to maturity of 7.52%, or 3.76% on a semi-annual basis. Effective annual yield to maturity = (1.0376)2 – 1 = 0.0766 = 7.66% 14.18. Time 0 1 2 3 Inflation in year just ended 2% 3% 1% Par value $1,000.00 $1,020.00 $1,050.60 $1,061.11 Coupon Payment Principal Repayment $40.80 $42.02 $42.44 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $1,061.11 The nominal rate of return and real rate of return on the bond in each year are computed as follows: Nominal rate of return = interest + price appreciation initial price Real rate of return = 1 + nominal return 1 1 + inflation Second year Third year Nominal return $42.02 $30.60 0.071196 $1,020 $42.44 $10.51 0.050400 $1,050.60 Real return 1.071196 1 0.040 4.0% 1.03 1.050400 1 0.040 4.0% 1.01 The real rate of return in each year is precisely the 4% real yield on the bond. 14.19. The price schedule is as follows: Year Remaining Maturity (T) Constant yield value $1,000/(1.08)T 0 (now) 1 2 19 20 20 years 19 18 1 0 $214.55 $231.71 $250.25 $925.93 $1,000.00 Imputed interest (Increase in constant yield value) $17.16 $18.54 $74.07 14.20. The bond is issued at a price of $800. Therefore, its yield to maturity is: 6.8245% Therefore, using the constant yield method, we find that the price in one year (when maturity falls to 9 years) will be (at an unchanged yield) $814.60, representing an increase of $14.60. Total taxable income is: $40.00 + $14.60 = $54.60 14.2-CFA. a. (i) Current yield = Coupon/Price = $70/$960 = 0.0729 = 7.29% (ii) YTM = 3.993% semiannually or 7.986% annual bond equivalent yield. On a financial calculator, enter: n = 10; PV = –960; FV = 1000; PMT = 35 Compute the interest rate. (iii) Realized compound yield is 4.166% (semiannually), or 8.332% annual bond equivalent yield. To obtain this value, first find the future value (FV) of reinvested coupons and principal. There will be six payments of $35 each, reinvested semiannually at 3% per period. On a financial calculator, enter: PV = 0; PMT = 35; n = 6; i = 3%. Compute: FV = 226.39 Three years from now, the bond will be selling at the par value of $1,000 because the yield to maturity is forecast to equal the coupon rate. Therefore, total proceeds in three years will be: $226.39 + $1,000 =$1,226.39 Then find the rate (yrealized) that makes the FV of the purchase price equal to $1,226.39: $960 × (1 + yrealized)6 = $1,226.39 yrealized = 4.166% (semiannual) b. Shortcomings of each measure: (i) Current yield does not account for capital gains or losses on bonds bought at prices other than par value. It also does not account for reinvestment income on coupon payments. (ii) Yield to maturity assumes the bond is held until maturity and that all coupon income can be reinvested at a rate equal to the yield to maturity. (iii) Realized compound yield is affected by the forecast of reinvestment rates, holding period, and yield of the bond at the end of the investor's holding period. 10. a. A 3-year zero coupon bond with face value $100 will sell today at a yield of 6% and a price of: $100/1.063 =$83.96 Next year, the bond will have a two-year maturity, and therefore a yield of 6% (from next year’s forecasted yield curve). The price will be $89.00, resulting in a holding period return of 6%. b. The forward rates based on today’s yield curve are as follows: Year 2 3 Forward Rate (1.052/1.04) – 1 = 6.01% (1.063/1.052) – 1 = 8.03% Using the forward rates, the forecast for the yield curve next year is: Maturity YTM 1 6.01% 2 (1.0601 × 1.0803)1/2 – 1 = 7.02% The market forecast is for a higher YTM on 2–year bonds than your forecast. Thus, the market predicts a lower price and higher rate of return. 15.11. b. a. P $9 $109 $101.86 1.07 1.08 2 The yield to maturity is the solution for y in the following equation: $9 $109 $101.86 1 y (1 y) 2 [Using a financial calculator, enter n = 2; FV = 100; PMT = 9; PV = –101.86; Compute i] YTM = 7.958% c. The forward rate for next year, derived from the zero-coupon yield curve, is the solution for f 2 in the following equation: 1 f2 (1.08) 2 1.0901 f 2 = 0.0901 = 9.01%. 1.07 Therefore, using an expected rate for next year of r2 = 9.01%, we find that the forecast bond price is: P $109 $99.99 1.0901 d. If the liquidity premium is 1% then the forecast interest rate is: E(r2) = f2 – liquidity premium = 9.01% – 1.00% = 8.01% The forecast of the bond price is: $109 $100.92 1.0801 15.4 (CFA). The given rates are annual rates, but each period is a half-year. Therefore, the per period spot rates are 2.5% on one-year bonds and 2% on six-month bonds. The semiannual forward rate is obtained by solving for f in the following equation: 1 f 1.025 2 1.030 1.02 This means that the forward rate is 0.030 = 3.0% semiannually, or 6.0% annually. 15.6 (CFA). a. Based on the pure expectations theory, VanHusen’s conclusion is incorrect. According to this theory, the expected return over any time horizon would be the same, regardless of the maturity strategy employed. b. According to the liquidity preference theory, the shape of the yield curve implies that short-term interest rates are expected to rise in the future. This theory asserts that forward rates reflect expectations about future interest rates plus a liquidity premium that increases with maturity. Given the shape of the yield curve and the liquidity premium data provided, the yield curve would still be positively sloped (at least through maturity of eight years) after subtracting the respective liquidity premiums: 2.90% – 0.55% = 2.35% 3.50% – 0.55% = 2.95% 3.80% – 0.65% = 3.15% 4.00% – 0.75% = 3.25% 4.15% – 0.90% = 3.25% 4.30% – 1.10% = 3.20% 4.45% – 1.20% = 3.25% 4.60% – 1.50% = 3.10% 4.70% – 1.60% = 3.10% 15.9 (CFA). a. Five-year Spot Rate: $1,000 $70 $70 $70 $70 $1,070 1 2 3 4 (1 y1 ) (1 y 2 ) (1 y 3 ) (1 y 4 ) (1 y 5 ) 5 $1,000 $70 $70 $70 $70 $1,070 2 3 4 (1.05) (1.0521) (1.0605) (1.0716) (1 y 5 ) 5 $1,000 $66.67 $63.24 $58.69 $53.08 $1,070 (1 y 5 ) 5 $758.32 $1,070 (1 y 5 ) 5 (1 y 5 ) 5 $1,070 y 5 5 1.411 1 7.13% $758.32 Five-year Forward Rate: (1.0713) 5 1 1.0701 1 7.01% (1.0716) 4 b. The yield to maturity is the single discount rate that equates the present value of a series of cash flows to a current price. It is the internal rate of return. The spot rate for a given period is the yield to maturity on a zero-coupon bond that matures at the end of the period. A spot rate is the discount rate for each period. Spot rates are used to discount each cash flow of a coupon bond in order to calculate a current price. Spot rates are the rates appropriate for discounting future cash flows of different maturities. A forward rate is the implicit rate that links any two spot rates. Forward rates are directly related to spot rates, and therefore to yield to maturity. Some would argue (as in the expectations hypothesis) that forward rates are the market expectations of future interest rates. A forward rate represents a break-even rate that links two spot rates. It is important to note that forward rates link spot rates, not yields to maturity. Yield to maturity is not unique for any particular maturity. In other words, two bonds with the same maturity but different coupon rates may have different yields to maturity. In contrast, spot rates and forward rates for each date are unique. c. The 4-year spot rate is 7.16%. Therefore, 7.16% is the theoretical yield to maturity for the zero-coupon U.S. Treasury note. The price of the zero-coupon note discounted at 7.16% is the present value of $1,000 to be received in 4 years. Using annual compounding: PV $1,000 $758.35 (1.0716) 4 16.20.a. A. 8% coupon bond Time until Cash Period Payment Flow (Years) 1 0.5 $40 2 1.0 40 3 1.5 40 4 2.0 1,040 Sum: B. Zero-coupon 1 2 0.5 1.0 $0 0 PV of CF Discount rate = 6% per period Weight Years × Weight $37.736 35.600 33.585 823.777 $930.698 0.0405 0.0383 0.0361 0.8851 1.0000 0.0203 0.0383 0.0541 1.7702 1.8829 $0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 3 4 1.5 2.0 0 1,000 0.000 792.094 $792.094 Sum: 0.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000 2.0000 2.0000 For the coupon bond, the weight on the last payment in the table above is less than it is in Spreadsheet 16.1 because the discount rate is higher; the weights for the first three payments are larger than those in Spreadsheet 16.1. Consequently, the duration of the bond falls. The zero coupon bond, by contrast, has a fixed weight of 1.0 for the single payment at maturity. b. A. 8% coupon bond Time until Cash Period Payment Flow (Years) 1 0.5 $60 2 1.0 60 3 1.5 60 4 2.0 1,060 PV of CF Discount rate = 5% per period Weight Years × Weight $57.143 0.0552 0.0276 54.422 0.0526 0.0526 51.830 0.0501 0.0751 872.065 0.8422 1.6844 Sum: $1,035.460 1.0000 1.8396 Since the coupon payments are larger in the above table, the weights on the earlier payments are higher than in Spreadsheet 16.1, so duration decreases. c. The duration rule predicts a percentage price change of: D 7.515 0.01 0.01 0.0702 7.02% 1.07 1.07 This overstates the actual percentage decrease in price by 0.31%. The price predicted by the duration rule is 7.02% less than face value, or 92.98% of face value. d. The duration-with-convexity rule predicts a percentage price change of: 7.515 2 1.07 0.01 0.5 64.933 0.01 0.0670 6.70% The percentage error is 0.01%, which is substantially less than the error using the duration rule. The price predicted by the duration rule is 6.70% less than face value, or 93.30% of face value. 16.2 (CFA). a. Bond price decreases by $80.00, calculated as follows: b. c. d. e. f. 10 0.01 800 = 80.00 ½ 120 (0.015)2 = 0.0135 = 1.35% 9/1.10 = 8.18 (i) (i) (iii)