NPN Annual Meeting
5-9 October 2009
Milwaukee
Voucher – see info on NPN website
Julio B. – overview
See plant migration research from historic period by Betencourt and others
Need to distinguish change from variability
Journal of Climate – see Wang et al. 2009
Beef up NPN in MBTA course
Land Surface Phenology – mix of biotic and abiotic signals
JB – sees step changes even more than gradual change
Adam Terando – ag indices
Check pronounced heating trend in Great Plains as compared to rest of country – correlates
well with pattern of pop declines in landbirds
Number of frost days is better measure than thermal time or heat stress index
Mark Schwartz – lilac and honeysuckle
First leaf and last frost
Also looking at multiple species composite indices
Abe Miller-Rushing (ecologist) – regional assessments
Ecoregion map from USFS
NPS inventory and monitoring map
LCC map
Closely related flowering plant species tended to respond similarly to climate change – species
that did not shift their phenology declined in abundance (but did they do better farther
north?)
Same for some birds – Moller et al. 2008 PNAS
Vulnerability assessment
Pitman et al. 2009. Geophysical Research Letters 36
BREAKOUT
Seeking info about data that could support development of IPCs
Will use Heinz Center report on Landscape Pattern Indicators for the Nation
Indicators do not need data – that concern comes later
Looking at broad-scale, must have broad inference
We are not building the tool, we are mapping out major concepts
Report Contents
Intro to each IPC
Group recommendation
Rationale
Details of IPC design
How will it be presented
What does it show
List of phenomena that may be suitable for an IPC
List of broad questions about the phenomena
Rank order the questions
Animals Breakout – 6 October 2009
Earlier meetings on developing the network; this is the first that includes animals
Participants:
Janis Dickinson
Wayne Esaias
Geoff Geupel
Abe Miller-Rushing
Alyssa Rosemartin
Jake Weltzin
Terry Rich
Walter Sadinski
NPN Animals goal
Online with focal species this fall
Will include some inverts
Recently reviewed by group of ~20 experts
Working with NatureServe
Marine systems are within the purview
Today’s Charge to the Breakout Groups
Brainstorming about IPCs
 List of phenomena that may be suitable for an IPC.
Identify phenomena across taxa, across life-history traits, functions in ecosystems
(pollinators, seed dispersers), guilds, nest types, etc.; be sure to sample from
diverse types of species
Identify changes in food resources – drive species actions, movements
Reproduction phenomena, vital rates
Shifts in egg laying dates
Arrival and departure dates
Bird range shifts – breeding and nonbreeding
(discussion of phenophase)
Emergence and submergence of ground squirrels and p dogs, snakes, bears
Choose IPCs that are functionally linked, species that depend on each other,
predator-prey, those tightly linked to abiotic factors, food-consumer
Approach via ecosystem services, not species – food production, pollination, clean
water, seed dispersal, carrion removal, waste processing; e.g., select indicators of
water quality such as amphibian reproductive success – could be a new
framework for organizing IPCs
“First” call of amphibians, birds, crickets, cicadas,
Essentially every species has a set of responses tied to climate; many responses
are similar
Implicit that biodiversity conservation is a goal
Nectar flow indicated by bees (and 2000 other pollinators)
Plant flowering (flowering not necessarily highly correlated with nectar flow)
“First” bumble bee – realizing that “first” is correlated with, e.g., population size
so not the best indicator; can be dealt with statistically
When do Osmia bees get enough pollen to make a nest
Last bloom date
For IPCs already in place, where are the temporal and spatial gaps?
NPN does not have, and does not plan to conduct, a gap analysis of the IPC
information currently being collected
Many data sets out there that have not yet been analyzed or explored for their
possible value as IPC; have not identified the most important questions that might
be answered by these data; possible additional goals of the NPA
NPN already has a list of all the phenophases that we could monitor, by species
Need
Vision statement for NPA (see p.2 of Annual Meeting Plan); needs
additional statement re providing information/tools for decision support for
decision makers and land managers; change “trends” to “changes”?
Broad questions related to ES
Articulate specific questions from above and rank them
Identify indicators for specific questions (from off shelf or new)
Integrated across taxa, landscapes, resources, and parsimonious
Articulate framework for digging below what IPC is telling us – get to
ramifications
Evaluation of BBS – is it really measuring the trends; are real trends being
masked? Research question
Alternate Vision – The NPA informs citizens on important changes in the timing of
seasonal events that indicate potential changes in ecosystem services critical to
the health and well being of our society and economy. The assessment identifies,
evaluates and predicts/forecasts the rate and magnitude of key phenological
changes and the potential ramifications of any such changes for society.
Questions
Which bird species will become non-migratory?
Or how are migratory patterns within a species (any species) changing? Changes
in timing, populations becoming non-migratory.
How are reproductive success and survival (all vital rates) affected by
phenological responses/impacts(?) to CC?
How are wetlands and ground water changing, relations with ground water, snow,
ice, precip - water quality for human and wildlife uses. (ES)
How is timing and duration of hydro period affected?
How are hunting seasons and game management affected? What are driving
variables. Applies to fisheries too.
How are insects, disease and other pest outbreaks affected? Big downstream
impacts on timber, carbon….animals.
Same for infectious diseases and vectors.
How do changes in the timing of events and phases for plants (exotic invasions,
succession, distributional shifts) affect animal populations?
How do we maintain or build elevational and N-S corridors?
How do we deal with changing animal distributions or community distributions –
refuges no longer having value as refuges for the original target populations?
Will we identify phenological management units?
How do we adapt management practices to handle changing phenological
dependencies?
How do changing phenology of food plants (planting, fertilization, harvest) affect
animal use of the landscape (movement) and exposure of animal populations to
contaminants?
How are emergence and submergence (aestivation, hibernation) of ground
squirrels, p dogs, bears, snakes etc. affected?
How is snowfall timing, accumulation and duration and affected and what are the
impacts on animals?
How does precipitation timing and duration affect timing, severity and extent of
fire?
How is timing, severity, extent of fire affected and what are the impacts on
animals?
How are plant-pollinator interactions affected?