5/02/2014
Our NEW Website – check it out:
Every day I will focus on the material we include in our website. Much of the information
provided will be available on a complimentary basis until the end of February. Beyond this
month, only subscribers will have access to our research, recommendations, market scans,
results and other information to help you to be an efficient and informed trader or investor.
Under the tab REPORTS, various reports are available.
George Beyrouthi’s editorial:
Should the Fed taper the tapering?
A lot of people I talk to in my field of financial advice have told me they are concerned about
the size of the US Debt, and even in Australia the alarm bells are sounding about our own
debt. But the US being the largest economy in the world has a unique role as its currency is
the world’s reserve.
Let us make it very clear. The US will not (I did not use the word “never”) default and will
always have the ability to pay its bills in its own currency. However there is an exception. If
the US dollar loses its role as the world reserve currency, then the US will be in a more
precarious position. However this is unlikely to happen in the immediate future. Watch out for
the Chinese Yuan!
This may happen though!. In fact, there are many nations moving away from the US dollar.
There are not big economies to speak of. For instance, lately the Nigerian central bank
reduced its dollar reserves and increased its holdings of Chinese yuan. Zimbabwe, which was
using the US dollar as its own currency, switched to Chinese yuan. China’s presence in Africa
is increasing at a very fast pace.
The Russian government is considering eliminating the dollar’s use and presence.
The former chief economist of the World Bank recently called for ending the use of the dollar
as the world reserve currency.
There are many who think that the US currency is the root cause of global financial and
economic crises.
There is no doubt in my mind, that the reason for the price of gold to climb of recent days is
because central banks are switching away from the US dollar into gold.
The recent tapering has created a big problem for many emerging nations and I will continue
my report tomorrow. The flight of big money to speak of leaving emerging economies have
caused a big turbulence in the financial world of recent weeks. Read all about it in tomorrow
editorial.
Please go to our website:
for the full report
For further information call us to discuss. (07) 5630 4141 OR 0411 259 526
We must emphasize that whilst these trades may end up rewarding, they have an element
of risk if not properly managed (risk is often limited to a manageable level) and we highly
recommend to learn about them before trading.
Please see our disclaimer on back page.
DOW JONES INDEX
15,444.79
72.59
0.47%
S&P500
1,756.18
14.40
0.82%
NASDAQ
4,035.56
39.14
0.97%
E-STOXX 50
2,962.49
(1.48)
-0.05%
FTSE 100
6,449.27
(16.12)
-0.25%
DAX
9,127.91
(58.42)
-0.64%
NIKKEI 225
14,008.47
(585.55)
-4.18%
HANG SENG
21,397.77
(618.40)
-2.89%
SHANGHAI
2,202.45
(25.11)
-1.14%
GOLD (US$/oz)
1,255.40
(2.25)
-0.18%
SILVER (US$/oz)
19.50
0.09
0.44%
COPPER (USc/lb.)
319.55
1.20
0.38%
CRUDE (US$/brl)
97.34
0.91
0.94%
WHEAT (US/bu.)
584.50
20.75
3.68%
SOYBEAN (US/bu.)
1,282.75
7.75
0.61%
COCOA (US/mt)
2,877.00
(37.00)
-1.27%
CORN (USd/bu.)
441.75
6.00
1.38%
COTTON (USd/lb.)
85.40
0.39
0.46%
COFFEE 'C'(USd/lb.)
136.25
0.30
0.22%
FCOJ-A (USd/lb.)
143.45
1.10
0.77%
CME Live Cattle
138.98
(0.43)
-0.30%
AUD-USD
0.8933
0.0180
0.670%
EUR-USD
1.3514
0.6600
-1.100%
USD-JPY
101.6400
0.6600
-1.100%
GBP-USD
1.6325
0.0020
-0.590%
AUD-EUR
0.6610
0.012
1.79%
If you wish to receive our Newsletter on a
complimentary 7 day free trial, please visit our
website at www.fssecurities.com.au and subscribe
for the trial.
It is important to recognise that not every
recommendation will suit everyone. You need to
determine what your risk appetite is before you trade.
Do you need a hand? Please call us.
We have a lot of material in our daily report.
You will find:
- Overnight summary
- Review on Gold, Silver and Crude markets
- Our recommendations cover:
o US market
o Commodities
o FX
o ASX Equities
- We do a full analysis on one stock (our pick)
- Stats showing the % change over two weeks
- Upcoming Dividends
- A lot more
Are you moving forward?
Here are our predictions for the next 3 months:
-
-
XJO (ASX 200) has about 200 points further to
go (up)
Gold to trade between 1250 and 1350 US/Oz
The Australian dollar to remain weak and hover
around the 88 to 93 US cents
The Housing industry will have between 3 to 6%
rise in value from a low base.
Inflation to remain low
Interest rate will remain where it is at the
moment for the next three months at least. It
may go higher later next year.
Offshore Markets &
Businesses
Overnight and from around the globe we start with
Wall Street where US stocks bounced back on after
the release of positive corporate results, as the
market fought to regain its footing following its largest
selloff in months a day earlier. The Dow Jones
Industrial average rose 0.47% or 72 points to 15,445.
The Broader S&P500 rose 0.76% to 1755.
several European major markets fell 0.05% at 2962.
London’s FT100 index was fell 0.25% at 6449.
.closed for the New Year
holiday.
On the commodities. Gold futures contract a short
time ago was trading at $1255 US/Oz down $2 from
this time yesterday. Silver is at $19.46 US/Oz down
13 cents overnight. Crude Oil finished this morning at
97.35 US/barrel up 1%. Copper, the world’s
economic barometer, was trading this morning at
319.55 c/lb.up 0.38%. Iron ore which is important for
our miners such as BHP, RIO, Atlas Iron and
Fortescue was at $122.60 US /tonne
On the currencies. the Aussie dollar surged almost
2% in overseas trading as investors react to the
RBA's decision on Tuesday. The US dollar, yen and
euro were all broadly stable, reflecting a drop in the
volatility that has accompanied the flood of money out
of emerging economies in search of traditional safe
havens in the developed world. The Aussie a short
time ago was trading at 89.3 US cents and 66.1 Euro
cents. These are intra banks rates.
On our market yesterday the benchmark ASX 200
Index lost 90.8 points, or 1.8% to 5097, wiping about
$26 billion off the market's value. As was widely
expected, the RBA board elected to keep the official
interest rate on hold at 2.5 per cent.
The RBA dropped comments about the Australian
dollar being "uncomfortably high" which featured in
recent months. At the local close the dollar was
buying US88.8¢, up sharply from US87.53¢ at the
Local stocks are set to open flat. The SPI futures
contract was down 4 points at 5046 shortly before the
marke opens.
Source: Yahoo, Bloomberg, SMH, ninemsn and AFR
Global announcements
Updated on
Wednesday, February 05, 2014
FS Securities Picks
Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG) 31/01/2014
MQG is Australia’s leading listed investment bank.
It is a provider of banking, financial, advisory,
investment and funds management services.
INVEST
OR
CONSERV
'-TRADER
AGGRTRADE
R
N
N
52wk
s
chang
e
N
N
from
40.25
N
N
to
54.66
VERY
AGGRTRADE
R
SUNASX
N
bull
%
35.80
%
54.66
0
55.88
0
53.96
0
54.81
0
Note: see disclosure on back page
Value
Earnings
P/E Ratio
P/B Ratio
P/E Growth
P/S Ratio
Company Market Sector
1.18
1.15
1.01
16.23
15.44 14.14
1.65
1.25
1.39
0.58
2.03
0.99
4.84
1.62
--
Income
Dividend
Franking
Tax adj
Stability
Company Market Sector
4.20%
4.60% 5.40%
50.00%
2.80%
3.20% 4.20%
95.00% 91.20% 97.60%
Risk
Beta
Current ratio
Quick ratio
Debt/Equity
Earnings Stability
Income coverage
Company Market Sector
1.13
1.08
0.93
1.04
1.67
-0.19
1.06
-972.50% 25.40%
-47.50% 53.80%
-624.00
--%
10 yr
5 yr
1 yr
7.20%
-7.40% 10.00%
7.20%
-110.90%
145.60
0.80%
21.60%
%
17.70%
5.60%
42.90%
10.30%
13.00%
0.90% 4.40%
Growth Rates
Sales
Cashflow
Earnings
Dividends
Book Value
Weekly
Daily
Indices and Commodities
GOLD: GOLD PRICED in US Dollars fell back to $1250 per
ounce Tuesday lunchtime in London, giving back the last of
yesterday's swift 1.3% gain, made after weaker-than-expected US
manufacturing data. Priced in British Pounds, gold held onto half
of Monday's rise, trading at £766 per ounce despite data showing
the fastest surge in UK construction activity since mid-2007, one
month before the banking run on mortgage-lender Northern Rock.
Western stock markets fell for a fifth day running, while Japan's
Nikkei slumped 4%, pulling the MSCI World Index down to near 4month lows as the sell-off in emerging markets also continued.
Formerly favoring "gold in Yen", Dennis Gartman of the
eponymous trading Letter today wrote that "our interest in gold in
Euro terms is trumping [the Yen play]...for the first time in more
than a year and a half." The worst-performing choice for January,
gold priced in Japanese Yen rose only 0.9% last month against a
6.0% rise in Euro terms.
(source HeffX-LTN CMEgroup oilngold.com Kitco.com)
SILVER: Silver prices rose 1.19% to USD19.36 per ounce during
the 24 hours ending 23:00GMT, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar.
Additionally, the Indian government’s decision to slash its tariff on
the import of gold and silver further bolstered the demand-outlook
of the commodity.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, Silver is trading at 19.38, 0.07%
higher from yesterday’s close.
Silver is expected to find support at 19.10, and a fall through could
take it to the next support level of 18.82. Silver is expected to find
its first resistance at 19.65, and a rise through could take it to the
next resistance level of 19.91. (source HeffX-LTN CMEgroup
oilngold.com Kitco.com)
Charts sourced from oilngold
CRUDE OIL: Crude oil is trading near the lowest price in a
week and may extend its losses during the day if crude
inventories increased in the US as estimated. Meanwhile, the
weak economic data from the US and China continue to weigh.
US crude stockpiles probably advanced by 2.25 million barrels
last week, the Energy Information Administration report may
show tomorrow, which could signal that demand remains week
in the world’s biggest oil consumer.
The American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release
separate supply data today.
(source HeffX-LTN CMEgroup oilngold.com Kitco.com)
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.
Advances, Declines and Volume
Analysts rating changes:
A group of former Study Group executives is
preparing childcare roll-up Stirling Early Education
for an initial public offering.
Credit Suisse has downgraded department store
Myer from “outperform” to “neutral” in the wake of
a merger proposal put to arch-rival David Jones
last year. In a research note, analysts Grant
Saligari and James O’Brien said the proposal
favoured David Jones’s shareholders, revising
price target for Myer down to $2.70 from $3.10.
Deutsche Bank has a “buy” rating on News Corp
and a 12-month share price target of $22 on the
stock. NWS will release its 2Q14 results on Friday,
Summary for Conservative traders
Based on the GB8 mechanical system that we use
at FS Securities, we provided the following trends
on the weekend:
The Dow is Bearish, Wheat is bearish and Corn is
bullish
In the ASX Sectors all are Neutral except Energy,
Financial and ASX50 are bearish and Gold is the
only bullish sector.
We are bearish on ANZ QBE STO and WBC. We
are bullish on NCM.
Ask for a copy if you would like to see the list.
ASX weekly market advances and
declines
Average Advances over total fell over 50 days
from 50.6 recently to 48.7 (48.4 / 47.8/ 48.8 % last
3 weeks)
Gainers and Most Active by volume
By looking at the above table readers will notice where the direction of the
market has been on the day.
Last from low: Blue = closed in the top half of the day’s range.
Net Change is the daily movement in points.
% Change represents the daily movement in %.aud
Sectors Performance
NOTES:
The above ASX indices show the daily changes.
If shown in red, they indicate a fall on the day.
If shown in blue they indicate a rise on the day.
WEEK ON WEEK CHANGE (and over two weeks as well)
OVERSEAS INDICES, FX AND COMMODITIES
WEEK ON WEEK CHANGE (and over two weeks as well)
AUSSIE MARKET
BIGGEST GAINERS ON WEEK ON WEEK BY %
CRITERIA: MARKET CAP > 100mil, PRICE> $0.10, CLOSE THIS WEEK > 10% OVER LAST WEEK
By %
Alphabetical order
BIGGEST GAINERS (what was hot) ON FRIDAY BY %
CRITERIA: TOP 300 ASX, close on Friday > close on Thursday by %
BIGGEST LOOSERS ON FRIDAY BY %
CRITERIA: TOP 300 ASX, close on Friday > close on Thursday by %
BIGGEST GAINERS (what was hot) ON FRIDAY BY %
CRITERIA: 100 M ASX, close on Friday > close on Thursday by %
BIGGEST LOOSERS (what was dreadful) ON FRIDAY BY %
CRITERIA: 100 M ASX, close on Friday > close on Thursday by %
Mini charts
Commodities and US markets
THE GRAPHS SHOW HOW FROM AN INDEX OF 100 SOME 52 WEEKS AGO THE VARIOUS INDICES OR COMMODITIES HAVE MOVED.
Sectors
THE ABOVE GRAPHS SHOW HOW FROM AN INDEX OF 100 SOME 52 WEEKS AGO THE VARIOUS ASX SECTORS HAVE MOVED.
Major stocks
Upcoming Dividends
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Ex Div Date
Symbol
Name
Fran
ked
%
3/02/2014
4/02/2014
4/02/2014
4/02/2014
4/02/2014
4/02/2014
4/02/2014
11/02/2014
13/02/2014
13/02/2014
14/02/2014
17/02/2014
20/02/2014
24/02/2014
5/03/2014
18/03/2014
27/03/2014
AAI
AKY
AFI
AYD
AYH
AYJ
AYK
BKI
MLT
RMD
GUD
COO
KOV
NVT
CCP
WAM
SNL
ALCOA INC.
AUSTRALIAN MASTERS CORPORATE BOND FUND NO 5
LIMITED
AUSTRALIAN
FOUNDATION INVESTMENT COMPANY
LIMITED
AUSTRALIAN
MASTERS YIELD FUND NO 1 LIMITED
AUSTRALIAN MASTERS YIELD FUND NO 2 LIMITED
AUSTRALIAN MASTERS YIELD FUND NO 3 LIMITED
AUSTRALIAN MASTERS YIELD FUND NO 4 LIMITED
BKI INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED
MILTON CORPORATION LIMITED
RESMED INC
G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED
CORUM GROUP LIMITED
KORVEST LTD
NAVITAS LIMITED
CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED
WAM CAPITAL LIMITED
SUPPLY NETWORK LIMITED
0
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
0
100
0
100
100
100
100
100
Current
Div
Amount
0.029
0.74
0.08
0.9
0.95
1.1
0.85
0.035
0.082
TBA
0.18
0.005
0.26
0.094
0.2
0.065
0.04
Div
Rate
Per
Share
0.105
3.74
0.22
3.85
3.95
0
0
0.069
0.168
0.075
0.44
0.012
0.46
0.196
0.37
0.125
0.085
Div Yield
%
Last
Type
0.791
4.616
3.607
3.79
3.903
0
0
4.322
3.862
1.483
7.018
7.742
6.706
2.899
3.911
6.361
3.696
13.3
81.03
6.1
101.59
101.2
100.2
100.75
1.585
4.35
5.03
6.27
0.155
6.86
6.76
9.46
1.965
2.3
Final
Interim
Interim
Interim
Interim
Interim
Interim
Interim
Interim
Interim
Interim
Interim
Interim
Interim
Interim
Interim
Interim
Dividends are payments made by a corporation to its shareholder members. It is the portion of corporate profits paid out to stockholders.[1] When a
corporation earns a profit or surplus, that money can be put to two uses: it can either be re-invested in the business (called retained earnings), or it
can be distributed to shareholders. There are two ways to distribute cash to shareholders: share repurchases or dividends.[2][3] Many corporations
retain a portion of their earnings and pay the remainder as a dividend.
A dividend is allocated as a fixed amount per share. Therefore, a shareholder receives a dividend in proportion to their shareholding. For the joint
stock company, paying dividends is not an expense; rather, it is the division of after tax profits among shareholders. Retained earnings (profits that
have not been distributed as dividends) are shown in the shareholder equity section in the company's balance sheet - the same as its issued share
capital. Public companies usually pay dividends on a fixed schedule, but may declare a dividend at any time, sometimes called a special dividend
to distinguish it from the fixed schedule dividends.
Dividends are usually paid in the form of cash and shares in the company (either newly created shares or existing shares bought in the market.)
Further, many public companies offer dividend reinvestment plans, which automatically use the cash dividend to purchase additional shares for the
shareholder. Source: From Wikipedia, the free encyclopaedia.
GENERAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER this document has been prepared for the general information of investors and does not take into
account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. Persons intending to act on
information in this document should seek professional advice to confirm that the investments or strategies mentioned are appropriate
in the light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances prior to taking any action. Email transmission
cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error free and there is a risk messages may be corrupted, intercepted or lost in transmission.
Therefore we do not accept liability for any viruses, errors or omissions in the contents of this message or attachments which arise as
a result of email transmission. Statements contained in this email are general only and do not take into account the particular needs,
objectives, financial circumstances or investment preferences of any person. George Beyrouthi is an Authorised Representative (AR#
315 563) of FS Securities (QLD) Pty Ltd AFSL# 410 183.