中信泰富: 中信泰富:背景雄厚的高收益債券 鐵礦項目延誤 鐵礦項目延誤 以致 2013 年上半年收入下降 年上半年收入下降 相關業務營業總收入較去年少 28%,利潤大幅下降主要是公司的位於澳洲西部的鐵礦項目 長期拖延所致。不過,中信泰富的其他主要業務保持穩定,並錄得溢利。 財務狀況好轉 槓桿比率自 2012 年年底下降 4%至去年上半年的 46%。金融衍生工具負債亦較 2012 年年 底下降了 38%。受惠於槓桿比率下跌、現金流入增長及金融衍生工具風險降低,中信泰富 的財務狀況已逐漸改善。 獲實力雄厚的母公司支持 獲實力雄厚的母公司支持 中信泰富於 2008 年的主要外匯損失獲其母公司中信集團以注資形式填補。中信集團繼續 表現出對公司的大力支持,自其時起為中信泰富提供的資金高達 40 億港元。此外,中信 泰富亦已成為中信集團的第二大附屬公司,而兩間公司的高級管理人員亦有重疊,由常振 明先生兼任中信集團董事長及中信泰富主席。我們認為中信泰富已佔據有利位置可有所收 成,並可充分利用中信集團的優勢。 到期收益率吸引 信貸風險亦屬 風險亦屬合理 亦屬合理 CITPAC 21 目前以 97.2 元的折讓價進行交易(截至 2 月 14 日)。我們認為,此債券呈現折 讓,其發行公司亦獲強大的母公司支持,因此是非常吸引的投資選擇。 CITIC PACIFIC LIMITED (BB (s)/Ba1 (m)) - CITPAC 65/8 04/15/21 CITPAC 21 – High Yield with Parental Uplift 1H 2013 Earnings Fall On Delayed Iron Ore Mine Project Total earnings of the underlying business operations were 28% below last year’s. The sharp decline in profit was mainly due to the company’s long-delayed iron ore mine project in Western Australia, while CITIC Pacific’s other key business segments remain solid and recorded a profit. Improving Financial Position Leverage decreased 4% from last year to 46% in the first half of 2013. Financial derivative liabilities instruments dropped 38% from the end of last year. Supported by a lower leverage, growing cash inflow and reduced exposure on financial derivatives, CITIC Pacific is improving its financial position. Supported by Strong Parent Company CITIC Pacific’s major FX losses in 2008 were covered by equity injections from its parent company, CITIC Group. CITIC Group continues to show strong support for the company and has since provided CITIC Pacific with funding amounting to HKD4billion. CITIC Pacific has also become the second largest subsidiary of CITIC Group and given the high level of senior management overlap in the two companies, Mr. Chang Zhenming, the Chairman of CITIC Group is also the Chairman of CITIC Pacific, we believe CITIC Pacific is in a pole position to harvest and leverage the strengths of CITIC Group. Attractive YTM With Reasonable Credit Risk CITPAC 21 is currently trading at a discounted price of $97.2, as at 14 February. We believe this discounted bond issued by a company with support from a strong parent company is a very attractive investment option. BOND HIGHLIGHT - CITPAC 65/8 04/15/21 Table 1: Information Summary Issuer Name Announcement Date Currency Issuance Size Issuance Price Minimum Investment amount Incremental Amount Maturity Date Years to Maturity Call Schedule Call Price Coupon Date Rating at Issuance Source: iFAST Compilations CITIC PACIFIC LIMITED 09/19/2011 USD USD 500,000M 100.00 USD 100,000 USD 1,000 04/15/2021 7.5 N/A N/A April 15/ October 15 BB(s)/Ba1(m) KEY FACTS Company Background CITIC Pacific Limited is an established and diversified corporation with a primary focus on three main business areas: special steel, iron ore mining and property development in mainland China, with each business accounting for 22%, 33% and 17% of the company’s total assets respectively. With an annual production capacity of 9 million tonnes, the company is currently the biggest dedicated special steel manufacturer in China and is building the largest magnetite iron ore mine in the world (Sino), which is also one of the largest single investments by a Chinese company outside China. Its other business segments include civil infrastructure, power generation and telecommunication. CITIC Pacific is 58% owned by the state-owned CITIC Group Corporation, listed in Hong Kong stock exchange and is a constituent of the Hang Seng Index. Purpose of the Issuance The net proceeds of the issue of the Notes will be approximately USD500,000M after deducting the commissions, but before expenses incurred in connection with the issue of the Notes. The Issuer intends to use the proceeds from the issue of the notes for its funding and general corporate purposes. COMMENTARY CITIC Pacific Limited recently released its 2013 half-year report. The company reported that it was finally moving into the initial production phase of its USD8billion iron ore project in Australia, following years of delays. In light of the announcement, we choose to highlight CITPAC 21 as our bond of the week. Table 2: CITIC Pacific’s 1H 2013 Key Financial Results Half-year ended Half-year ended 30 June 2013 30 June 2012 HKD Million HKD Million Revenue 41,291 48,175 Earnings from 2,593 5,766 Consolidated Activities Change in Fair Value of 608 909 Investment Properties Net Finance Charges (1,104) (243) Taxation (268) (950) Profit 4,463 5,482 Source: CITIC Pacific and iFAST Compilations Change (%) (14%) (55%) (33%) 354% (72%) (19%) 1H 2013 Earnings Fall On Delayed Iron Ore Mine Project CITIC Pacific’s revenue for the half-year ending 30 June 2013 fell 14% from the same period in 2012, while total earnings declined by 19% from last year (see Table 2). Total earnings of the underlying business operations dropped even more, by 28% from the year before (see Table 3). The sharp decline in profit was mainly due to the company’s long delayed iron ore mine project in Western Australia, which recorded a HKD1,100million loss in the first half of the year, due to a mismatch between the gas delivery under contracts and the production schedule, as well as an increase in non-capitalised loan interest expense and other operating expenses. Nonetheless, CITIC Pacific’s Sino Iron Project is the largest Chinese mining project abroad and the Chinese government is supportive on this project. The China Development Bank has provided large loans and continues to back the project despite delays and cost overruns. We believe once the project in Western Australia achieves full operation and is running at its full capacity, the company’s profitability will significantly improve. On the other hand, benefiting from the company’s acquisition of the additional 25% interest in Xing Cheng Phase II project, its special steel business improved in 1H 2013, with profits increasing HKD81million to HKD605million (see Table 3). Plus, CITIC Pacific’s other key business segments remain solid and recorded a profit. The energy sector had performed relatively well, increasing their contribution to profit by 74%. This was mainly due to lower coal prices which pushed down its energy production cost and its Ligang power station selling more units. Table 3: CITIC Pacific’s Segment Profit Half-year ending Business Segments 30 June 2013 HKD Million Iron Ore Mining (1,054) Property 417 Special Steel 605 Energy 872 CITIC Telecom 340 Tunnels 297 Other Investments 120 Underlying Business 1,814 Operations Source: CITIC Pacific and iFAST Compilations Half-year ending 30 June 2012 HKD Million (110) 739 524 500 154 273 78 2,504 Y-o-Y Growth (%) N.M. (43.57%) 15.5% 74.4% 120.8% 8.79% 53.85% (28%) Improving Financial Position CITIC Pacific Limited’s underlying credit strength and financial position remains sound with a lower debt leverage and healthier liquidity. Cash generated from its business operations for the first half of 2013 tripled to HKD3.7billion, from HKD1.2billion during the same period in 2012; leading the company with a net cash inflow of HKD874million for the first half of 2013. Total assets of the group also increased from HKD247,386million at the end of 2012 to HKD258,401million at the end of the first half of 2013, which was mainly driven by the installation of iron ore mine equipment and the increase in cash inflow. The company’s debt and maturity profile remains healthy. As at 30 June 2013, the total outstanding debt of CITIC Pacific increased merely 1% during the first half of 2013, of which over 46% of the total outstanding debt matures in or beyond 2018 (see Table 4). At the same time, leverage, which is calculated by using net debt divided by total capital, also decreased 4% from last year to 46% in the first half of 2013. Furthermore, the company also cut back its financial derivative exposure. Its financial derivative liabilities instruments dropped 38% to HKD3,096million, as at 30 June 2013, compared to HKD4,978million recorded at the end of last year. Supported by a lower leverage, growing cash inflow and reduced exposure on financial derivatives, CITIC Pacific is improving its financial position. Table 4: CITIC Pacific’s Maturity Profile CITIC Pacific Limited Maturity HKD million 2013 400 2014 13,450 2015 17,369 2016 3,693 2017 59 2018 & Beyond 31,814 Source: CITIC Pacific and iFAST Compilations Subsidiaries HKD million 8,109 7,945 5,613 3,595 3,494 23,156 Total Debt HKD million 8,509 21,395 22,982 7,288 3,553 54,970 Supported by Strong Parent Company In 2008, CITIC Pacific Limited was involved in a series of unauthorised trades in accumulators and structured FX hedging products, valued at AUD9billion (USD6.33billion), against the US dollar in order to hedge against the currency exposure of the company’s iron ore mining project in Australia. After reaching a high of roughly USD0.98 in July 2008, the Australian dollar fell sharply and traded as low as USD0.65. However, the accumulator contracts required CITIC Pacific to purchase the Australian currency at a fixed price of USD0.87; this losing position cost the company a total realised loss of HKD807.7million. This tremendous loss has shaken the financial structure of CITIC Pacific. After reporting the loss, trading of its shares was suspended on 20 October 2008 and when resumed trading, its share price fell by 82% to HKD5.06 on 24 October 2008, compared with HKD28.2 a share on 2 July 2008. Almost immediately, its parent CITIC Group increased its ownership from 29% to 57.5% through an HKD1.5billion equity injection; this injection served as a bail-out for CITIC Pacific’s huge losses on the foreign-exchange transactions. Over the years, CITIC Group continues to show strong support for the company and has provided CITIC Pacific with funding amounting to HKD4billion since the equity injection in 2008. CITIC Pacific has also become the second largest subsidiary of CITIC Group, after CITIC Bank, in terms of profit contribution. Besides, the company’s failure would be detrimental to CITIC Group’s reputation, as it is a high profile ‘red chip’ company that has high exposure in overseas capital markets. Moreover, given the high level of senior management overlap in the two companies, Mr. Chang Zhenming, the Chairman of CITIC Group is also the Chairman of CITIC Pacific, we believe CITIC Pacific is in a pole position to harvest and leverage the strengths of CITIC Group. Chart 1: Historical Price & Yield Historical Price & Yield $ 107 % 9 105 8.5 103 8 101 99 7.5 97 7 95 93 6.5 91 6 89 87 Price YTM 85 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 5.5 5 Source: Bloomberg and iFAST Compilations Attractive YTM With Reasonable Credit Risk CITPAC 21 is currently trading at a discounted price of $97.2, as at 14 February. We believe this discounted bond issued by a company with support from a strong parent company is a very attractive investment option. Table 4: Summary of Financials and Ratios 1H 2013 Income Statement (HKDm) Cash Inflow 3,714 EBITDA 8,892 Capital Expenditure 10,254 Revenue 41,291 Net Profit 4,463 Balance Sheet (HKDm) Total Assets 258,401 Fixed Assets 137,296 Financial Derivative Liabilities 3,096 Inventories 12,254 Net Debt 84,580 Cash and Bank Deposits 33,685 Key Ratios Net Debt to Total Capital 46 Total Debt to EBITDA 23.77 Debt to Assets 45.77 Total Debt to Common Equity 140.47 Source: CITIC Pacific and iFAST Compilations 2H 2012 Change 1,243 9,612 13,435 48,175 5,482 199% (7%) (24%) (14%) (19%) 247,386 128,040 4,978 11,803 83,808 32,821 4% 7% (38%) 4% 1% 2.6% 50 21.05 47.14 148.15 - Table 5: Summary of Bond Covenants Key Covenants/Clauses Interest Payments Final Redemption Status - The Notes will bear interest at a rate of 6.625% per annum, payable semi-annually in arrear on 15 April and 15 October subject to adjustment of each year - Redemption at par. Unless previously redeemed or purchased and cancelled, the Notes will mature and become payable at their principal amount (USD 100,000 per calculation amount) on 15 April 2021 - The Notes constitute dated subordinated (8 April 2011) obligations of the Issuer, ranking pari passu without any preference among themselves - Claims will rank in priority to the rights and claims of holders of subordinated liabilities which by their terms rank in right of payment junior to the Notes and all classes of equity securities of the Issuer, including holders of preference shares, if any. ( ) - The Notes are issued in registered form in denominations of USD 100,000 each and integral multiples of USD1, 000. Payments - All payments of principal and interest by the Issuer will be made free and clear of, and without withholding or deduction for any taxes or duties, unless such withholding or deduction is required by law. Governing Law - The trust Deed and the Notes and any non-contractual obligations are governed by English law, except that the provisions of the Notes and the Trust Deed relating to subordination shall be governed by Hong Kong law. The Notes - 6.625% Subordinated Notes due 2021 Source: CITIC Pacific and iFAST Compilations Form and Denomination Disclaimer and Risk Warning This article is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of any bonds. No investment decision should be taken without first viewing a fund's prospectus. Any advice herein is made on a general basis and does not take into account the specific investment objectives of the specific person or group of persons. Past performance and any forecast is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the bond. The price of the bond may fall as well as rise. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Information and opinions presented in this publication have been obtained or derived from sources believed by iFAST Financial (HK) Limited (IFHK) to be reliable, but IFHK makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness and IFHK accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this publication unless such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations. This publication is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. IFHK may have issued other publication that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this publication. Bonds are mainly for medium to long term investment, not for short term speculation. Bond investments are not bank deposits and involve risks, including the possible loss of all principal amount invested. It is the issuer’s responsibility to pay interest and repay the principal of bonds. If the issuer defaults, the holder of bonds may not be able to receive the interest and principal invested. The holder of bonds bears the credit risk of the issuer. All pricing is indicative only and bond prices do fluctuate when market changes which may cause loss of principal, and that there may not be a secondary market for bonds. Factors affecting market price of bonds include, and are not limited to, fluctuations in interest rates, credit spreads, and liquidity premiums. Investors investing in bonds denominated in non-local currency should be aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations which may cause a loss of principal. Investors should refer to the respective Credit Rating Agencies (Moody’s, S&P or Fitch or others as the case may be) for their rating definitions, methodology in evaluating the creditworthiness of the issuers and how the ratings are assigned. Rating agencies may change their ratings at short notice. A change in rating may affect the price of securities outstanding. Each prospective investor should consult independent professional advisers before making any investment decision based on your particular circumstances, in particular, in determining the suitability and accessing the investment risks of any securities or other financial instruments. Key risks of investing in bonds • Credit risk - bonds are subject to the risk of the issuer defaulting on its obligations. It should also be noted that credit ratings assigned by credit rating agencies do not guarantee the creditworthiness of the issuer; • Liquidity risk - some bonds may not have active secondary markets and it would be difficult or impossible for investors to sell the bond before its maturity; and • Interest rate risk - bonds are more susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates and generally prices of bonds will fall when interest rates rise. Key risks of investing in high-yield bonds • Higher credit risk - since they are typically rated below investment grade or are unrated and as such are often subject to a higher risk of issuer default; • Vulnerability to economic cycles - during economic downturns such bonds typically fall more in value than investment grade bonds as (i) investors become more risk averse and (ii) default risk rises. Bonds with special features Some bonds may contain special features and risks that warrant special attention. These include bonds: • That are perpetual in nature and interest pay-out depends on the viability of the issuer in the very long term; • That have subordinated ranking and in case of liquidation of the issuer, investors can only get back the principal after other senior creditors are paid; • That are callable and investors face reinvestment risk when the issuer exercises its right to redeem the bond before it matures; • That have variable and/or deferral of interest payment terms and investors would face uncertainty over the amount and time of the interest payments to be received; • That have extendable maturity dates and investors would not have a definite schedule of principal repayment; • That are convertible or exchangeable in nature and investors are subject to both equity and bond investment risk; and/or • That have contingent write down or loss absorption feature and the bond may be written-off fully or partially or converted to common stock on the occurrence of a trigger event.