MBA 570x Homework 1 – Due 9/24/2014 Solution Individual works: 1. Questions related to Chapter 11, ST Why do you think is a fund of funds market for hedge funds, but not for mutual funds? Answer: Investors can inexpensively recreate diversification by investing in various mutual funds. Most investors do not have the amount of capital needed to invest in multiple hedge funds to achieve diversification. In addition, while mutual funds are very transparent about their investment strategies (which are relatively straight forward) and there is an entire industry dedicated to providing investors with analysis of mutual funds, hedge funds are much more opaque about their investment activities and their strategies are more esoteric. As a result, the cost/reward ratio for a fund of hedge funds is much higher than for a fund of mutual funds. 2. Questions related to Chapter 12: a. During the height of the financial crisis in late 2008, the yield curve flattened and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond reached a then-all-time low of 2.52%. As a hedge fund manager, suppose you think the market has overreacted and will eventually correct itself, leading to a steepening in the yield curve. What trades might you execute in a long/short strategy to take advantage of the situation? Answer: Short the 30-year Treasury; long the 1-year Treasury. b. Why did convertible arbitrage strategies perform so poorly in 2008? In this trade, hedge funds go long the convertible, and short the underlying stock. When the temporary short-ban was instituted in late 2008, traders could no longer hedge their position by shorting stock. As the stock market fell, convertible values dropped, and the inability to manage short positions compounded the loss. 3.1 Chapter 7 (BKM): 5 Suppose that your client decides to invest in your portfolio a proportion y of the total investment budget so that the overall portfolio will have an expected rate of return of 16%. a. What is the proportion y? y*0.18 + (1-y)*0.08 = 0.16. Solve the above: y = 0.8 b. What are your client’s investment proportion in your three stocks and the T-bill fun? Stock 1: 0.8*0.25 = 0.2 Stock 2: 0.8*0.32 = 0.26 Stock 3: 0.8*0.43 = 0.34 Risk free asset: 1-0.8 = 0.2 c. What is the standard deviation of the rate of return on your client’s portfolio? 0.28*0.8 = 22.40% 3.2 Chapter 7 (BKM): 7 You client’s degree of risk aversion is A=3.5. a. What proportion, y of the total investment should be invested in your fund? y* = (0.18 – 0.08)/(0.01*3.5*0.282) = 0.36 b. What is the expected value and standard deviation of the rate of return on your client’s optimized portfolio? 0.36*18% + 0.64*0.08 = 11.60% Standard deviation of the portfolio = 0.36*28 = 10.08% 4. Chapter 8 (BKM): 1, 6 1. A pension fund manager is considering three mutual funds. The first is a stock fund, the second is a long-term government and corporate bond fund, and the third is a T-bill money fund that yields a rate of 8%. The probability distribution of the risky funds is as the following: Stock fund (S) Expected return 20% (E( r S )) Bond fund (B) 12% (E( r B )) standard deviation 30% ( S ) 15% ( B ) What are the investment proportions in the minimum-variance portfolio of the two risky funds, and what is the expected value and standard deviation of its rate of return? w min B 2 B 2 E cov( r B , r E ) 2 cov( r B , r E ) 2 E (page 214, footnote 4) Using the above information, we find the weight of the minimum variance portfolio in the stock fund is 0.17 and the weight in the bond fund is 0.83. E(rp) = 12*0.83 + 20*0.17 = 13.36% 2 p w B 2 2 B wS 2 2 S 2 w s w B s B = 193.71 Thus, σp=13.92% 6. You require that your portfolio yield an expected return of 14%, and that it be efficient on the best feasible CAL. a. what is the standard deviation of your portfolio? Obtaining the weights for optimal risky portfolio based equation (8.7) on page 221. You get weight in bond is 0.548; and the weight in stocks is 0.452. 2 2 2 2 2 p w B B w S S 2 w s w B s B =272.74 We have: σp=16.514% b. what is the proportion invested in the T-bill fund and each of the two risky funds? E(rp) = 0.548*12 + 0.452*20 = 15.6%; 15.6% = 8%*w + 15.6%*(1-w) w: weight in the risk free asset = 0.21. the rest in stock and bond funds 5.1 Chapter 24 (BKM): 3 A manager buys three shares of stock today, and then sells one of those shares each year for the next three years. His actions and the price history of the stock are summarized below. The stock pays no dividends: Time 0 1 2 3 Price 90 100 100 100 Action Buy 3 shares Sell 1 share Sell 1 share Sell 1 share a. calculate the time-weighted geometric average return on this “portfolio”. b. Calculate the time-weighted arithmetic average return on this portfolio. c. Calculate the dollar-weighted average return on this portfolio. Solution: a. Time 0 1 2 3 Cash flow 3×(–$90) = –$270 $100 $100 $100 Holding period return (100–90)/90 = 11.11% 0% 0% Time-weighted geometric average rate of return = (1.1111 × 1.0 × 1.0)1/3 – 1 = 0.0357 = 3.57% b. Time-weighted arithmetic average rate of return = (11.11% + 0 + 0)/3 = 3.70% The arithmetic average is always greater than or equal to the geometric average; the greater the dispersion, the greater the difference. c. Dollar-weighted average rate of return = IRR = 5.46% [Using a financial calculator, enter: n = 3, PV = –270, FV = 0, PMT = 100. Then compute the interest rate, or use the CF0=−300, CF1=100, F1=3, then compute IRR]. The IRR exceeds the other averages because the investment fund was the largest when the highest return occurred. 5.2 Chapter 24 (BKM): 4 Based on current dividend yields and expected capital gains, the expected rates of return on portfolios A and B are 12% and 16%, respectively. The beta of A is 0.7, while that of B is 1.4. The T-bill rate is currently 5%, whereas the expected rate of return of the S&P 500 index is 13%. The standard deviation of portfolio A is 12% annually, that of B is 31%, and that of the S&P 500 index is 18%. a. If you currently hold a market-index portfolio, would you choose add either of these portfolio to your holdings? Compare their alpha (since alpha is relevant measure when the portfolio is already well diversified). A is greater. (1.4% versus -0.2%) b. If instead you could invest only in T-bills and one of these portfolio which would you choose. Comparing Sharpe ratios (since the Sharpe ratio is relevant measure when the portfolio is not diversified), A is greater. (0.583 versus 0.355) 5.3 Chapter 24 (BKM): 5 Consider the two (excess return) index-model regression results for stocks A and B. the risk-free rate over the period was 6%, and the market’s average return was 14%. Performance is measured using an index model regression on excess returns. a. Compute the statistics for each stock A B Alpha 1% 2% Appraisal ratio 1/10.3 2/19.1 Sharpe ratio 10.6/21.6 8.4/24.9 Treynor measure 10.6/1.2 8.4/0.8 b. Which stock is the best choice under the following circumstances? i. This is the only risk asset to be held by the investor – A, based on Sharpe ratio ii. The stock is to mixed with the rest of the investor’s portfolio, currently composed solely of holding in the market index fund – B, based on alpha. iii. This is one of many stocks that the investor is analyzing to form an actively managed stock portfolio. – A, based on the Treynor measure. 5.4 Chapter 24 (BKM): 7 Consider the following information regarding the performance of a money manager in a recent month. The table represents the actual return of each sector of the manager’s portfolio in column 1, the fraction of the portfolio allocated to each sector in column 2, the benchmark or neutral sector allocations in column 3, and the returns of sector indices in column 4 Equity Bonds Cash Actual ret 2% 1% 0.5 actual wgt 0.70 0.20 0.10 a. Bogey: Actual: b. Security Selection: Market Equity Bonds Cash benchmark wgt 0.60 0.30 0.10 index ret 2.5% (S&P) 1.2% (Salomon index) 0.5 (0.60 × 2.5%) + (0.30 × 1.2%) + (0.10 × 0.5%) = 1.91% (0.70 × 2.0%) + (0.20 × 1.0%) + (0.10 × 0.5%) = 1.65% Underperformance: 0.26% (1) Differential return within market (Manager – index) (2) (3) = (1) × (2) Manager's portfolio weight Contribution to performance –0.5% 0.70 –0.2% 0.20 0.0% 0.10 Contribution of security selection: −0.35% –0.04% 0.00% −0.39% c. Asset Allocation: Market (1) Excess weight (Manager – benchmark) Equity Bonds Cash 0.10% 2.5% –0.10% 1.2% 0.00% 0.5% Contribution of asset allocation: Summary: Security selection Asset allocation Excess performance (2) Index Return –0.39% 0.13% –0.26% (3) = (1) × (2) Contribution to performance 0.25% –0.12% 0.00% 0.13%