To us there are no foreign markets. TM Intelligent Investing Published: 7 December 2015 Contents Market Review Market Review 1 Equities Just Eat 2 Wolseley2 Equity Screen UK3 Europe4 European Equities Henkel5 Investment Trust Impax Environmental Markets5 Profit Takers6 The information provided in Intelligent Investing is not tailored advice – it has no regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific person. Investment involves risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go up as well as down and you may not get back the amount originally invested. This is a marketing communication under FCA rules. For important information please see the full disclosures. Intelligent Investing | December 2015 Over the last few weeks markets have moved sideways, albeit nervously, in a range of plus or minus 5%. Moves by the Chinese authorities to reflate their economy appear to be taking hold. Signs of a gentle recovery are becoming more apparent in Europe, supported by talk of still more quantitative easing from the European Central Bank. The UK continues with its slow and steady upwards progress, while economic data in the US remains very supportive, especially on the employment front. With China no longer a constraint, as it was in September, the odds are now on the US Federal Reserve raising rates at its December meeting, finally, after seven years rooted close to zero. This long period of very cheap money has fuelled a rise in asset values, although it has not delivered the economic growth its proponents originally hoped. Therefore, this first, totemic move towards normalising monetary conditions may cause some ripples of volatility, even if the size of any rate rise is small. Moreover, there are other headwinds that markets still have to confront. There is, tragically, the awful terrorist outrage in Paris to consider, along with the lock-down in Brussels that followed it; the Chief Executive of Siemens, one of Germany’s largest companies, warned investment would suffer in the face of the uncertainty this climate of fear engenders. A renewed collapse in commodity prices may indicate a drop in global economic demand, particularly in Emerging Markets; the Bloomberg commodity index, a broad measure of a spread of different industrial and agricultural commodities, is down by 11% since early October - and has fallen by approaching 25% over the course of 2015. However, in our view there is sufficient economic momentum from the US, the UK and from embryonic recoveries in Europe and China for growth to continue over the coming months. This will support gradual revenue and earnings increases for companies in aggregate, although clearly mining and energy companies may struggle, and quantitative easing is still very much the order of the day in Europe and Japan. Nonetheless, the near seven year equity rally is long in the tooth and valuations are no longer cheap in absolute terms. This means that when companies disappoint, the market punishes culprits savagely. Corrections of 15%-20% have been commonplace, as seen in the cases of Rolls-Royce, Chemring, Meggitt, Pearson, SIG and Home Retail amongst others. In some cases these big adjustments are justified; but in others, they throw up opportunities where the lurch downwards exceeds the size of the downgrade. We are also seeing some companies that are capable of generating real growth, by exploiting new niches and technologies such as Just Eat which features later in this publication. Here, despite sometimes high valuations, market consensus can underestimate the scale of growth involved. Richard Champion Deputy Chief Investment Officer, UK Equities One to Takeaway? Just Eat Share price: 456.2p Market cap: £3,080m 2014A 2015F 2016F Revenue (£m) 157 235 325 Earnings per Share (p) 3.8 5.8 9.3 Dividend per Share (p) 0.0 0.0 1.2 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Free Cash Flow Yield 2.2% 1.3% 2.1% Price Earnings Ratio 69.1 78.5 49.3 112% 238% 448% Return on Capital Employed Source: Quest® Just Eat (‘JE’) provides takeaway restaurants with an online presence by enabling customers to order takeout across a range of technologies. They have 11 million active users and 59,000 restaurants across 14 countries on their platform. Typically, they focus on independent restaurants but they have also begun to partner with chains such as Papa Johns, itsu and Yo! Sushi. JE receives commission (c.10-12%) on the value of the order. The success of their model is underpinned by the fact that it appeals to customers and restaurants. Customers benefit from faster, easier and more flexible ordering at no extra cost while restaurant owners benefit in that JE: 1. drives additional orders 2. generates average orders that are 30% larger 3. cuts the amount of time spent taking phone orders 4. eliminates errors while taking orders and 5. provides much needed credibility via the customer feedback mechanism. JE is the clear market leader in 12 of their 14 territories. In this ‘winner takes all’ market it is worth noting that the number two has never managed to make a profit which suggests that their market leading positions will become increasingly dominant over time as the industry consolidates. As you would expect of a stock trading on 50x earnings, growth has been impressive with average annual revenue growth of 70% since 2012. Unlike some other technology stocks JE has been consistently profitable for two years. To justify the current valuation, we need comfort on the level of projected future growth. Although the UK, along with Denmark, are their only markets close to maturity, there is still scope for good growth with 70% of UK takeaway delivery orders still being taken on the phone. However, we expect the majority of growth to come from outside the UK given that it accounts for only 28% of revenues but 78% of JE’s total addressable market. As a result and upon maturity of their estate, management expect a sevenfold increase on 2014 revenues. Simon McGarry Senior Equity Analyst Turn up the heat Wolseley Share price: 3882p Market cap: £9,384m Revenue (£m) 2015A 2016F 2017F 14,894 13,332 14,050 Earnings per Share (p) 222.8 256.2 278.4 Dividend per Share (p) 90.8 99.4 110.5 Dividend Yield 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% Free Cash Flow Yield 4.5% 5.5% 6.2% Price Earnings Ratio 16.7 15.2 13.9 17.0% 17.8% 17.6% Return on Capital Employed Source: Quest® US business growing faster than its underlying markets 18 16 14 12 10 % 8 6 4 2 0 FY15 market growth B2 C C HV A In du st ria l Fi re & Fa b W Bl e nd ed at er wo rk s * FY15 LFL revenue growth Source:Wolseley 2015 Full Year Results *HVAC – Heating, ventilation and air-con Intelligent Investing | December 2015 Wolseley is the world’s largest specialist distributor of plumbing and heating products employing 38,000 people across the US, UK, Nordics, Canada and Central Europe. The company benefits from a strong, stable management team with an excellent growth track record. Their end markets remain fragmented providing ample opportunity for M&A having completed 18 bolt-on acquisitions last year. They rank in the top two in 81% of their markets which is extremely satisfying considering the inherent scale benefits in distribution. Staff turnover being consistently below industry averages is constructive for what is fundamentally a relationship based business. Sustainable homes are also a nascent market with the potential to drive material future growth. In early November, Wolseley published robust first quarter results. Despite the shares falling 5%, revenues were up 3.9% on a constant currency basis. Whilst Central Europe and Canada (8% of revenues) dragged on performance both the US (62% of revenues) and the Nordics (14%), which have been problematic of late, were better with like-for-like growth of 4.5% and 5.5%. However, the elephant in the room is the US construction sector which is recovering nicely but remains a shadow of its former self. With 1% annual population growth and the median US house being 40 years old the backdrop for a revival in US construction activity looks promising. Oxford Economics, a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, agrees – having recently predicted that US construction activity growth will outpace China over the next 15 years at 5% annually. Admittedly, building materials suppliers are notoriously cyclical businesses but this has been somewhat mitigated by an increased focus on Repair, Maintenance and Improvement which is more resilient in downturns. Nonetheless, the balance sheet remains conservatively managed with net debt below EBITDA. After cutting the dividend in 2009, it was reinstated in 2011 and the shares now yield 2.7% (dividend cover 2.5x) with a further 10% growth expected this year. Management have also repurchased over 4% of the shares in just 15 months. Given the shares trade on 15.2x current year earnings which is a 7% discount to the UK market we consider Wolseley an interesting investment opportunity. Simon McGarry Senior Equity Analyst 2 UK Equity Screen Dividend cover – thin or threadbare Search Criteria In this world of low interest rates and bond yields, equity dividends represent an attractive potential source of income. However, profitability and cash flows in many areas of the market are coming under increasing pressure and are making it more difficult for companies to maintain these ambitious dividend policies. 1. 12 month forward dividend yield is greater than 3% 2. 12 month forward dividend cover is less than or equal to 1.7x 3. Earnings per Share (EPS) fell last year and is expected to do so again this year Considering that the UK market is expected to pay roughly 63% of its 2015 earnings out in dividends, up from just 40% before the financial crisis, it appears that any wiggle room for earnings disappointment has now been substantially eroded. With this in mind, we have run a screen to identify what we feel are future candidates for a possible dividend cut. We have already seen dividend cuts from companies as diverse as Tesco, Serco, Glencore, Drax and Centrica to name but a few. The latest example is Amec who, in November, announced its first dividend cut in 18 years. What is interesting is not that they made this cut because they were forced to, but to quote their CEO, they needed to manage their business “on the assumption of an extended period of weakness”. What is perhaps more fascinating is that, at the time of the cut, next year’s dividend was covered 1.7x by forecast earnings. 4. Returns are forecast to fall this year 5. Net debt for the current year is greater than EBITDA Although hindsight is 20/20 vision, it is nonetheless interesting that in the three months before the dividend cut, the analyst consensus view of Amec’s forecast earnings per share was increasingly negative – and estimated a fall for the years ending 2015 and 2016 of 4% and 10% respectively. In light of Earnings per Share (EPS) for the UK market expected to fall by 5% in 2016, it appears that the combination of a high dividend yield, low cover and negative EPS growth is a particularly dangerous combination for investors at present. Considering that Amec has fallen over 40% since cutting its dividend, by avoiding any potential future dividend cuts could prove rewarding indeed. 12 month forward Market capitalisation (£m) Net debt/ EBITDA EPS growth Performance over previous Dividend yield Dividend cover Prior year Current year Current year 1 month 3 months 102,421 7.6% 1.1 -21% -16% 1.2 -8% -2% Oil Gas and Consumable Fuels 67,506 7.3% 0.9 -15% -47% 1.4 -9% 4% GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals 65,072 6.2% 1 -14% -29% 1.1 -3% 0% Vodafone Wireless Telecommunication Services 57,982 5.3% 0.5 -52% -17% 2.1 1% -4% Diageo Beverages 47,792 3.1% 1.5 -9% -5% 2.8 1% 11% BHP Billiton PLC Metals and Mining 41,891 10.6% 0.5 -47% -54% 2.2 -26% -29% Rio Tinto PLC Metals and Mining 37,907 7.3% 1.1 -21% -43% 1.2 -10% -10% Centrica Multi-Utilities 10,814 5.8% 1.4 -29% -3% 2.2 -6% -11% Tate & Lyle Food Products 2,822 4.7% 1.3 -39% -2% 2.1 1% 11% IMI Machinery 2,521 4.2% 1.5 -3% -25% 1.1 -5% -10% Electrocomponents Electronic Equipment Instruments and Components 1,022 5.0% 1.2 -19% -9% 1.6 9% 27% Vedanta PLC Metals and Mining 1,016 9.7% -0.8 -119% -671% 4.8 -28% -37% Premier Farnell Electronic Equipment Instruments and Components 382 6.9% 1.6 -3% -18% 2.8 2% -19% Company name Industry name Royal Dutch Oil Gas and Consumable Fuels BP Source: Quest ® Past performance and future forecast figures are not a reliable indicator of future results. Intelligent Investing | December 2015 3 European Equity Screen Quality outperformers Search Criteria The overriding theme of the last 18 months in European equity markets, in terms of investment style, has been the relative outperformance of Quality companies (i.e. healthy balance sheets, good growth and strong cash flow returns) and Momentum companies (i.e. where the shares have been outperforming the wider market) but at the expense of Value companies (i.e. stocks which look attractive across a variety of valuation metrics). 1. Market capitalisation is greater than €1bn 2. C ash flow returns have on average been higher than the cost of capital over the last 10 years 3. C ash flow returns are expected to improve this year 4. B oth revenue and Earnings per Share (EPS) have grown over the last 3 years at an average annual rate of more than 6% 5. Fixed charge cover is greater than 5x for the current year As mentioned in our Market Review earlier in this publication, this should be expected as, after a six year equity rally valuations have become stretched. Usually, at this point in the cycle, investors are more interested in looking for high quality companies with the ability to continue generating both strong returns and reasonable growth, as opposed to ‘deep value’ stocks that trade at significant discounts to book value and appear to be materially mispriced. To that end, we have screened our 1,300 stock continental European universe for companies with robust balance sheets, a track record of strong and improving returns and who are not experiencing downgrades. 6. Net debt/EBITDA less than 1.5x for the current year 7. Net debt/capital employed less than 25% for the current year 8. C onsensus EPS forecast for the current year have not been downgraded in the last 3 months The figures below are shown in euros. These returns may differ significantly when converted to other currencies at the prevailing exchange rates. 3 year average Current year Market cap (€m) 12 month forward Return on Capital Employed Change in current Net Net debt/ year consensus debt/ capital EPS over the EBIDA employed last 3 months Sales growth EPS growth Fixed charge cover 131,504 225% 11% 17% 36.9 -0.5 0% 1% Company name Country Industry name Novo Nordisk Denmark Pharmaceuticals Daimler Germany Automobiles 83,894 34% 9% 16% 20.1 -0.8 0% 3% KONE Corp Finland Machinery 19,844 130% 11% 12% 13.1 -1.1 0% 0% Ryanair Holdings Ireland Airlines 18,926 39% 10% 32% 9.0 -0.7 0% 18% Partners Group Holding AG Switzerland Capital Markets 8,979 60% 10% 13% 46.7 -0.7 0% 6% Kingspan Ireland Building Products 4,435 20% 18% 35% 25.8 0.1 2% 9% Ackermans and Van Haaren Belgium Diversified Financial Services 4,266 7% 99% 17% 9.1 0.5 7% 5% Temenos Group Switzerland Software 3,172 30% 10% 41% 9.6 0.4 17% 5% Unibet Group plc Sweden Hotels Restaurants and Leisure 2,573 57% 29% 27% 35.6 -1 0% 5% NetEnt AB Sweden Internet Software and Services 2,316 80% 28% 38% 25.4 -0.8 0% 2% Nemetschek AG Germany Software 1,673 39% 16% 28% 6.8 -0.2 0% 5% Interpump Group SpA Italy Machinery 1,555 23% 19% 14% 9.5 0.6 17% 20% Lotus Bakeries NV Belgium Food Products 1,229 24% 12% 14% 23.7 0.1 4% 5% Source: Quest® Past performance and future forecast figures are not a reliable indicator of future results. Intelligent Investing | December 2015 4 European Equities Stick with it... Henkel Share price: €108.30 Market cap: €47.0bn 2014A Revenue (€m) 2015F 2016F 16,428 18,023 18,698 Earnings per Share (€) 4.4 4.8 Dividend per Share (€) 1.3 1.5 1.6 Dividend Yield 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% Free Cash Flow Yield 4.5% 4.1% 4.5% Price Earnings Ratio 18.7 22.5 21.0 19.4% 19.9% 18.3% Return on Capital Employed 5.2 Source: Quest® Cash Flow Returns 20% 15% 10% 5% 20 0 20 5 06 20 0 20 7 08 20 0 20 9 10 20 1 20 1 12 20 1 20 3 14 20 1 20 5e 16 e 0% CFROA CFROC Henkel may not be a household name in the UK, but its brands certainly are. In its Home and Personal Care divisions that account for 51% of group sales its brands include: Persil laundry detergent (although Unilever owns the licence for production and distribution in the UK and Ireland), Right Guard deodorants and Schwarzkopf hair products. The Adhesives division (49% of sales) is made up of an industrial business (automotive, building and construction etc.) and a consumer business which includes such brands as Loctite and Sellotape. Henkel is an example of the type of high quality company that European equity markets have been rewarding since the summer. The company has a strong balance sheet with net debt/capital employed of just 1.7% and an excellent Cash Flow Return on Operating Assets (CFROA) profile. Henkel’s CFROA has averaged 13.8% over the last 10 years, although that masks the fact that its CFROA has more than doubled from 8.6% in 2004 to 18.1% last year. The company’s operating performance has been driven by an increase in its operating margin which Cost of Capital has gone from 7.7% in 2004 to 15.8% in 2014 and has been compounded by sales growth that has averaged 4.6% annually over the last 10 years. To put the returns into context, the 750 large capitalisation companies in our Quest® pan-European universe have averaged a 7.7% CFROA over the last 10 years while the European Household Products sector has averaged 8.7% over the same period. However one has to remember that with such a track record, maintaining sales and margin growth year in year out becomes progressively more difficult and increases the possibility of a disappointment, if not deceleration in the trend. Nevertheless if the recent third quarter (Q3) results are anything to go by, the Henkel growth story continues to roll on. Q3 organic sales grew by 3.2% versus the 2.8% expected by broker analysts, with even the cyclically exposed adhesive division beating estimates. Going forward Henkel expects organic growth to come in at 3% for the full year and the operating margin to increase to 16%. Marc Pullen Senior Equity Analyst The figures are shown in euros. Source: Quest® 2015 & 2016 are forecast years These returns may differ significantly when converted to other currencies at the prevailing exchange rates. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investment Trust A green investment Impax Environmental Markets Market cap: £342m Share price: 158p Latest NAV per share: 176p Premium/(Discount):10.2% Dividend Yield: 0.9% Source: Bloomberg Impax Environmental Markets Trust performance 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Source: Bloomberg Intelligent Investing | December 2015 13 20 14 20 15 12 20 11 Impax Environmental 20 20 09 10 20 08 20 07 20 20 05 20 06 04 20 20 02 20 20 03 0 MSCI World Launched in February 2002, Impax is a London listed investment trust. It aims to benefit from growth in demand for cleaner or the more efficient delivery of energy, water and waste. The trust invests internationally in 65 companies, mostly in quoted markets. At the end of October, the US accounted for 47% of assets and Europe 34%. Key sectors include energy efficiency (28%), water infrastructure & technologies (19%), alternative energy (16%), waste management & technologies (13%) and pollution control (12%). With £411m of total assets under management, the trust trades at a discount to assets of 10.5%. It has performed well over time, outperforming the MSCI All Companies World Index over three and 10 years to the end of October. With a minimal net yield of 0.9%, the main attraction is the potential for capital growth – underpinned by significant political and regulatory pressures, as evidenced by the 2015 Paris Climate Conference taking place this month. As the oil price has fallen over the last eighteen months, it can be argued that a degree of near term impetus has perhaps come out of the area of energy efficiency and technological innovation, but the focus on the environment by authorities remains significant – and any slowdown is likely to be muted and temporary. This is underlined by recent comments by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, on climate change, the VW carbon emissions scandal, China’s 13th five year plan to extend water, waste and air pollution spending, drought in California etc. This is an area of investment that is likely to experience above trend growth and potential for investment over the longer term. With an experienced management team, we believe Impax has the potential to continue to outperform the market over the longer term. Alex Whiting Investment Director Past performance figures are not a reliable indicator of future results. 5 Profit Takers In addition to providing insight and analysis of particular investment opportunities each month, we also review stocks that have shown strong performance in recent months and as a result investors might consider taking profits. These stocks are not sell recommendations however, you may feel now is a good time to take profits and allocate your capital elsewhere. Please do contact your portfolio manager to discuss any of these ideas or any other aspect of your portfolio held at Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management. Company name Market cap (£m) Prior Share FY dividend price (p) per share (p) Prior Current FY Price FY dividend Earnings per share (p) Ratio Current FY Price Earnings Ratio 1 month 3 month 6 month Performance over previous JD Sports Fashion 1,962 1008 7.0 7.9 10.9 20.5 4% 16% 55% SuperGroup PLC 1,342 1653 0.0 19.6 12.5 24.6 11% 10% 40% Regus 3,219 346 4.0 4.4 25.8 31.1 5% 17% 35% Rank 1,100 282 5.6 6.4 11.7 18.0 2% 7% 32% Big Yellow 1,318 838 21.7 24.6 21.5 27.2 12% 24% 31% Ted Baker 1,534 3493 40.3 48.6 24.1 35.6 12% 16% 24% Rightmove 3,919 4116 35.0 38.9 24.1 36.7 7% 10% 22% Dominos Pizza Group 1,699 1021 17.5 20.7 21.5 31.7 -4% 20% 22% RPC Grp 1,917 761 15.4 17.6 10.8 16.2 17% 16% 20% AVEVA 1,482 2319 30.5 29.6 25.3 31.3 11% 13% 19% 65,087 4042 76.1 79.8 21.7 27.2 1% 33% 18% 851 619 21.7 21.6 16.2 17.9 -4% 6% 18% 27,484 3478 35.0 36.3 27.8 34.6 1% 9% 17% Greene King 2,989 968 29.8 31.4 13.3 14.8 19% 18% 16% Hargreaves Lansdown 7,034 1490 33.0 35.1 32.5 38.5 3% 35% 16% 917 1845 34.0 37.4 14.6 17.9 9% 9% 15% DCC 5,266 5950 84.5 97.0 17.5 23.6 12% 22% 15% Dignity 1,199 2426 20.1 21.4 17.1 23.3 1% -4% 13% Telecity 2,482 1223 13.5 16.0 19.0 31.8 3% 12% 12% Inmarsat 5,040 1123 31.4 34.6 16.9 33.3 14% 11% 12% WH Smith 1,974 1750 39.4 43.3 15.5 18.7 3% 17% 11% Intertek 4,569 2842 49.1 51.8 20.9 21.1 8% 12% 11% DS Smith 3,732 395 11.4 12.3 13.5 15.1 1% -1% 10% Halma 3,223 851 12.0 12.7 19.8 25.2 10% 14% 10% RELX PLC 13,193 1194 26.0 28.0 17.2 19.6 3% 13% 10% Imperial Tobacco 33,943 3562 141 155 11.2 15.1 2% 12% 9% 3,151 2572 77.0 87.3 8.3 9.7 2% 3% 9% 27,970 3495 63.9 72.3 22.0 18.9 0% 3% 8% 5,653 1541 32.6 29.1 13.2 21.5 3% 3% 8% 70,897 3816 148 156 18.0 18.2 -1% 11% 8% SABMiller PLC Dairy Crest AB Foods Cranswick Bellway Carnival PLC Mondi PLC BAT Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Intelligent Investing | December 2015 6 Glossary The glossary is not intended as a technical definition as most of these metrics can be calculated in a number of different ways. Book Value per Share: Book Value per Share compares the total shareholder equity, as stated in the company’s balance sheet, to the total number of shares outstanding. Cash Flow Return on Assets (CFROA): Cash Flow Return on Assets, is an internal rate of return calculation that measures the inflation adjusted after-tax economic return that a company earns on all forms of capital excluding goodwill and other intangibles. It is a measure of a company’s profitability and the efficiency with which it uses its capital. Cash Flow Return on Capital (CFROC): Cash Flow Return on Capital is an internal rate of return calculation that measures the inflation adjusted after-tax economic return that a company earns on all forms of capital, including goodwill. It is a measure of a company’s profitability and the efficiency with which it uses its capital. Current Ratio: A measure of whether or not a firm has enough resources to pay its debts over the next 12 month. Calculated by dividing current assets by current liabilities. Dividend Yield: Dividend per share divided by the share price, often expressed as a percentage. For historic periods the average share price for the year is used, for forecasts the current share price is used. Earnings per Share (EPS): An indicator of a company’s profitability, it is the portion of profit after tax allocated to each outstanding share in issue. EBITDA: Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation: enables better comparison between companies as it is not affected by the way that the company is financed or by subjective accounting charges for depreciation and amortisation. Fixed Charge Cover: Income before net interest and operating lease payments divided by all fixed (financial) charges, i.e. interest, preference. Free Cash Flow Yield: Free cash flow represents the cash that a company is able to generate after laying out the money required to maintain or expand its asset base. Free cash flow yield is the annual free cash flow of the company divided by the market capitalisation of the company. Price/Book Ratio: (Price/book): Equity market capitalisation divided by the balance sheet net assets (equity). This ratio also gives some idea of whether you’re paying too much for what would be left if the company went bankrupt immediately. Price/book ratios are often used to compare banks, because most assets and liabilities of banks are constantly valued at market values. Price Earnings Ratio (P/E): Share price divided by EPS. For historic periods the average share price for the year is used, for forecast years, the current share price is used. It shows how much investors are willing to pay per pound of earnings. Quest®: Canaccord Genuity’s proprietary online valuation and analytical tool which combines consensus market figures with the Quest® Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation Model. Return on Capital Employed (ROCE): A measure of a company’s profitability and the efficiency with which it uses its capital. It is calculated as operating profit divided by capital employed. Return on Equity (RoE): Net income (before exceptional items and goodwill amortisation) divided by book value of equity. RoE reveals how much profit a company earned in comparison to the total amount of shareholder equity found on the balance sheet. Tables: F – Forecast results, figures based on the combined estimates of analysts covering the company. A – Actual results, company’s published results. Investments discussed in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should make their own investment decisions based upon their own financial objectives and resources, and if in any doubt, seek specific advice from an investment adviser. Intelligent Investing is a marketing communication under FCA rules; it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and we are not therefore subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. Prices are as at market close 03.12.2015 The information provided is not to be treated as investment advice. It has no regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific person or entity. The information contained herein is based on materials and sources that we believe to be reliable, however, Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management makes no representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates included in this document are subject to change without notice and Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management and/or connected persons may, from time to time, have positions in, make a market in and/or effect transactions in any investment or related investment mentioned herein and may provide financial services to the issuers of such investments. Details of these interests can be found on our website at http://www. canaccordgenuity.com/en-GB/wm/wealth-management-uk/Conflicts-Disclosure/ or if this document has been provided to you in hard copy, in the attached covering letter. Quest® is used under licence and with permission of Canaccord Genuity Ltd. Accounts, Share Prices & Global Consensus Estimates data provided in conjunction with S&P Capital IQ © 2015; Benchmark Sector comparatives are based on the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) and provided in conjunction with S&P Capital IQ © 2015 (and its affiliates, as applicable). see restrictions. Share prices are relative to the MSCI USA IMI (see restrictions) Quest® is at this stage registered in the UK and in the USA, and common law trade mark rights are asserted in other jurisdictions. CFROC, CITN and triAngle are trademarks of Canaccord Genuity Limited. Quest® is at this stage registered in the UK and in the US, and common law trade mark rights are asserted in other jurisdictions. Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management is a trading name of Canaccord Genuity Wealth Limited (CGWL) and Canaccord Genuity Financial Planning Limited (CGFPL), both of which are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Both are wholly owned subsidiaries of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. and have their registered office at 41 Lothbury, London, EC2R 7AE. CGWL is registered in England no. 03739694, CGFPL is registered in England no. 02762351. Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management (“CGWM”) is a trading name of Canaccord Genuity Wealth (International) Limited (“CGWI”) which is licensed and regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, the Isle of Man Financial Services Authority and the Jersey Financial Services Commission and is a member of the London Stock Exchange and the Channel Islands Securities Exchange, CGWI is registered in Guernsey no. 22761 and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. Registered office: Trafalgar Court, Admiral Park, St. Peter Port, GY1 2JA. 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