Page 1 Friday, May 01, 2015 Friday, May 01, 2015 Number 18- Volume 08 WEEKLY COMMODITY AT A GLANCE CBOT Soybean Last Week Last Year 3.63 3.67 4.86 968.50 969.75 1,480.75 $2.55 $2.05 99.76 Loose Lard, Chicago Basis UNQ UNQ UNQ Edible Tallow, Chicago Basis 0.28 0.28 0.46 Beef Trimmings, 90% Fresh 299.50 299.00 250.00 Pork Cutout Beef Trimmings, 50% Fresh 110.00 135.00 135.00 $1.40 Aust/NZ Blend Cow 90% EC Spot 241.00 243.00 214.00 $1.15 13.76 13.77 15.82 112A 3 Ribeye Roll, Lip-On CH 865.00 860.00 715.00 116A 3 Chuck Roll, Neck-Off CH 320.00 332.00 270.00 168 3 Round, Top (Inside) CH 290.00 297.00 270.00 180 3 Strip Loin, Bnls, 0x1 CH 825.00 775.00 655.00 136 Coarse Ground 73% 205.00 225.00 195.00 189A 4 Loin, Tenderloin, PSMO CH Cattle-Fax, 6-State Fed Steer Price Select Hams 20/23 $1.80 158.85 161.51 146.11 60.00 61.00 106.00 $0.93 J J A S O N D J F M A Source: Urner Barry 2014 2015 $0.65 $0.40 J F M A M Source: Urner Barry J J A S O N EST. DAILY CATTLE SLAUGHTER M T W TH F S TW 105 115 115 115 109 7 LW 110 110 110 105 105 4 *LY 114 121 119 121 119 17 EST. DAILY HOG SLAUGHTER 544 1/4 Tr Boston Butts 9/dn 110.00 97.00 169.00 Spareribs, Light, Fresh 183.00 175.00 170.00 Fresh Pork Trim (42%) 25.00 23.00 61.00 Fresh Pork Trim (72%) 61.00 53.00 120.00 Carcass Lamb Y4+55/65 352.00 352.00 330.00 Lamb Cuts, 204 Rack, 8-Rib, 7/Up 820.00 820.00 865.00 Lamb Cuts, 206 Shoulder, Cross Cut 280.00 280.00 295.00 Lamb Cuts, 232 Loin Trmd 4x4 530.00 530.00 540.00 EST. DAILY CALVES SLAUGHTER Lamb Cuts, 234 Leg, Boneless 550.00 560.00 565.00 Carcass Veal, Hide-off, 255/315, NC 465.00 TW 2 2 2 2 2 0 10 LW 2 2 2 2 2 0 10 *LY 3 2 2 2 2 0 11 EST. DAILY COW & BULL SLAUGHTER 925.00 Veal Cuts, 332 Loin, 4x4 Trim 12/18 Veal Cuts, 348A Leg, TBS 3-Pc 24/32 625.00 800.00 800.00 620.00 1,295.00 1,295.00 1,100.00 Quotes represent the high side of Friday's trading range 610 TW 429 429 426 425 420 35 2,164 LW 430 432 428 428 417 49 2,184 *LY 344 415 408 415 411 23 2,015 EST. DAILY SHEEP SLAUGHTER 7 9 8 7 9 8 8 F LW TW 8 8 S M 8 6 0 8 7 0 39 8 6 0 39 T W 2 20 21 21 37 TH 4/17 4/18 4/20 4/21 4/22 4/23 22 22 4/24 4/25 4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 Total 108 Total 23 3 18 22 22 21 109 *LY 23 2 21 22 23 23 114 *Last Year's numbers are rounded M J J A S O N D Last Week Last Year 0.783 0.783 15.564 15.394 1.216 1.217 120.230 118.881 6.202 6.193 3.015 2.963 1,080.000 1,076.000 30.670 30.780 1.119 1.087 COLD STORAGE STOCKS (Pounds in Thousands) 3/31/14 2/28/15 Beef in Freezer, Bnls 450,482 364,771 Cuts 41,346 41,016 Total Beef 405,787 491,828 3/31/14 2/28/15 PORK & OTHER Pork in Freezer, Picnics 9,080 19,339 Hams 89,452 127,712 79,721 Bellies 67,794 Loins 45,884 41,470 Spareribs 106,781 120,606 Butts 35,641 20,163 36,871 Trimmings 67,454 94,722 Other Pork in Freezer 105,917 575,539 Total 686,063 2,921 Veal in Freezer 9,614 Lamb & Mutton in Freezer 28,076 36,771 Total 30,997 46,385 0.927 13.006 1.097 102.230 6.259 2.222 This Week 566 140.00 840.00 D FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES 142.00 840.00 N 2014 2015 Total 67.00 Veal Cuts, 310 Shoulder Clod 14/20 O $0.74 J F M A Source: Urner Barry 104.00 375.00 S $0.60 D 69.00 460.00 A $0.67 110.00 Veal Cuts, 306 Hotel Rack, 7-Rib 14/20 1,110.00 1,110.00 J $0.81 $0.90 TW LW *LY J $0.88 1/4 Trmd. Loins 21/dn Sq Cut Bellies 14/16 M Chicken Index $/lb. $/lb. J F M A M Source: Urner Barry 1,150.00 1,150.00 1,100.00 $1.29 $1.11 57.15 USDA Drop Credit 2014 2015 $1.47 $2.30 59.15 NYMEX Light Crude Oil Turkey Index $1.65 $/lb. This Week $2.80 $/lb. Omaha, US No 2 Yellow Corn 2014 2015 Beef Index Australia, Dollar Mexico, Peso Canada, Dollar Japan, Yen China, Yuan (RMB) Brazil, Real South Korea, Won Taiwan, Dollar European Union, Euro Despite edging lower from February, March came in at 102.2 and became the 25th straight month in which the RPI measured above 100. A value greater than 100 indicates expansion in the industry. Same store sales were positive for most operators and this was the biggest driver of the Data Updated: April 22, 2015 positive outlook. 1,029.700 30.210 1.387 3/31/15 438,772 41,012 479,784 3/31/15 19,582 100,685 68,657 42,139 113,663 34,426 68,874 98,102 668,559 8,156 34,244 42,400 URNER BARRY’S WEEKLY RED MEAT INSIDER’S REPORT is available on FoodMarket.com and through Urner Barry’s flagship service Comtell Online. FoodMarket is available for $19.00 a month. © 2015 Urner Barry. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by USA Federal copyright law. Please do not copy or redistribute this information. Friday, May 01, 2015 Page 2 YS BEEF CUTOUT May-01 v. Apr-24 SELECT NO-ROLL CAB Rib -1.21% -4.08% -1.55% -2.45% Chuck -1.66% -2.57% -0.79% -0.74% 508 Round -1.96% -1.89% -1.69% -1.64% 456 Loin 0.94% 1.12% 0.30% 1.51% Brisket -4.79% -4.79% -3.33% -3.36% Plate -3.84% -3.91% -3.91% 0.14% Flank -5.24% -4.29% -4.29% -1.87% Total -1.14% -1.82% -1.14% -0.59% 2014 2015 Live Cattle, 6-State Fed Steer Price BEEF COMMENTARY BEEF BEEF CHOICE 2014 2015 Million lbs. Beef Production 404 352 300 J F M Source: USDA A M J J A S O N D 2014 2015 Cattle Slaughter Thousand Head/Week $1.77 $/lb. $1.65 $1.53 $1.41 569 496 423 350 $1.29 J F M A Source: Cattle Fax M J J A S O N J D M A M J J A S O N D 2014 2015 Cow and Bull Slaughter 160 Thousand Head/Week 1.650 1.600 1.550 1.500 140 120 80 4/27 Source: CME 4/28 4/29 4/30 J F M Source: USDA 5/1 2014 2015 Drop Credit A M J J A S O N D 2014 2015 Cattle Weights 839 $16.96 823 lbs. $15.97 $14.98 807 791 $13.99 775 $13.00 J F M Source: USDA A M J J A S O N D YS 50 % Trimmings J F M Source: USDA A M J J A S O N D 2014 2015 Select Grading Percentage $1.22 29% $/lb. $1.14 26% $1.06 23% $0.98 4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1 Source: Urner Barry $/lb. A M J J A S O N D ROUNDS: Rounds found slow movement into both the retail sector as wells as grinding facilities. LOINS: The loin primal section of the fabricated carcass was the only area where week/over/week gains developed. Strips and short loins continue to find higher trading ranges. BONELESS BEEF: Fresh 50s were mixed this week as supplies varied noticeably from packer to packer. The week ended with light to moderate trade developing at significantly lower price levels. This week’s cattle slaughter was higher than most participants anticipated coming in at 566,000 head. Fresh 90s were mostly steady this week. The current call for product was fairly matched with present inventory levels. YS BEEF CUTOUT-CH/SE SPREAD ($/cwt) M T W TH F TW 9.27 9.72 10.35 10.70 10.79 *LW 8.21 8.59 8.55 8.90 9.22 1000 600 $3.02 72% 400 $2.99 70% 200 $2.96 67% 0 65% $2.92 62% $2.89 4/27 4/28 Source: Urner Barry 4/29 4/30 5/1 J F M Source: USDA 1 load = 40,000 lbs. 800 2014 2015 Choice Grading Percentage YS 90 % Trimmings RIBS: Rib prices and primal values continue to slip lower in somewhat of a contra-seasonal pattern. Select ribs realized the largest week/ over/week declines when looking at primal sections of the carcass, losing almost $15/cwt from week prior. Weekly Beef Breakdown (# of loads) 17% J F M Source: USDA SLAUGHTER & BEEF PRODUCTION: Federally Inspected Slaughter continues to see an increase the week/over/week number of cattle entering the slaughter mix. Only a few weeks ago, the weekly tally was 503,600 head. This week’s inspected kill was assessed at 566,000, up 22,000 from week prior. Live cattle estimated weights moved 2 pounds lower to 1344 pounds. Dressed carcass weights gained a pound, reported now at 815 pounds. *Last Week's numbers are rounded 20% $0.90 LIVE CATTLE: At press time, cash cattle trading was ongoing in the North. Southern sale barns had completed the weekly trade at $160/cwt for the live animal, $2/cwt higher from week prior. Sales so far in the North had occurred at $158/ cwt to $160/cwt, $253/cwt to $255/cwt for the dressed carcass. CHUCKS: Demand for chuck cuts was lackluster, with both the clod and the chuck roll unable to find traction. Chuck cutouts move lower as boxed prices and fresh trimmings pushed values down. 100 1.450 $/cwt F Source: USDA Live Cattle Cont. Front-Month Futures $/lb. 642 Boxed beef and cutout values saw negative pressure develop early in the week, and as the week closed, downward pressure remained in place. Beef processors throughout the week were seeking clearing prices for chucks and rounds, as well as briskets and select ribs. Briskets sold in large volumes, spurred by the price breaks. Ground beef values moved lower, as demand remains weak. A M J J A S O N D Last week This week Trim 44.40 91.75 Grind 103.58 140.93 SE 164.18 178.26 CH 375.32 430.60 Source: USDA © 2015 Urner Barry. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by USA Federal copyright law. Please do not copy or redistribute this information. Page 3 Friday, May 01, 2015 PORK PRODUCTION 2014 2015 Thousand Head/Week Hog Slaughter 2,380 2,180 1,980 1,780 1,580 J F M Source: USDA A M J J A S O N D 2014 2015 Dressed weights, Hogs $0.760 $/lb. 217 $0.740 214 $0.720 212 $0.700 209 J F M Source: USDA A M J J A S O N 4/27 D 4/29 4/30 5/1 Source: CME Pork Production 2014 2015 2014 2015 USDA Direct Hogs, Iowa/Minnesota, Carcass Base 520 $1.64 475 $1.34 $/lb. Million lbs. 4/28 430 385 $1.04 $0.74 $0.44 340 J F M Source: USDA A M J J A S O N J F M Source: USDA D A M J J A S O N D TL Spareribs, Light, Fresh (Vacpak) $1.90 $1.85 $0.63 $/lb. $0.60 $0.55 $1.70 4/27 4/28 Source: Urner Barry 4/29 4/30 5/1 4/27 4/28 Source: Urner Barry 4/29 4/30 5/1 TL 1/4 in. Tr Boston Butts 9/dn $0.70 $1.15 $0.68 $1.10 $/lb. $/lb. TL Sq. Cut Bellies 14/16 $0.66 $1.05 $0.64 $1.00 $0.62 4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 $0.95 5/1 4/27 Source: Urner Barry 4/28 4/29 4/30 RETAIL: Although the week began with mixed undertones in the fresh pork complex, by mid-week most items were finding consistent premiums on balanced to thin inventories and supportive retail interest. The slight reduction in slaughter hog weights this week aided in clearing up excesses in supplies that existed last week. Bone-in loins gained between $4.00 and $6.00/ cwt during the week while boneless was up $3.00 to $7.00/cwt. Offerings of tenderloins and sirloins varied more seller to seller than most other items, leading to more conservative gains of $5.00/ cwt or 2 percent for tenderloins and $1.00/cwt for both bone-in and boneless sirs. Picnics and fresh boxed cushion meat were up $6.00 and $3.00/cwt respectively. Butts were among the strongest items on the sheet this week, seeing premiums between $9.00 and $13.00/cwt by Friday. Spareribs gained $7.00 to $8.00/cwt while St. Louis style and back ribs were up $10.00/cwt. 5/1 Source: Urner Barry TL 1/4 in. Tr Loins 21/dn Sausage Materials (TL) Trim (72%) Fr Sausage Materials (TL) Trim (42%) Fr $1.12 $0.60 $0.28 $1.09 $0.58 $0.26 $/lb. $/lb. $1.80 $1.75 $0.58 BELLIES: Trade in the belly complex occurred within a wide range this week as reductions in the slaughter helped the excess supply situation, yet without strong foodservice demand, offerings still varied widely by location. By Friday, 12 through 20lb square-cut bellies traded between $2.00 higher and $2.00/cwt lower. $1.05 $1.02 $/lb. $/lb. $0.65 HAMS: Ham values were mixed this week as spots of availability emerged in response to Mexico’s Labor Day which occurred on Friday and essentially temporarily shut down exports to plants there. This was especially noticeable because leading up to this week, exports to Mexico had been described as strong. 17 through 27lb bone-in hams ranged between $1.00 higher and $1.00/cwt lower while boneless hams lost $1.00/cwt by Friday as a result. TRIMMINGS: Further processors continued to seek trimmings this week, which when combined with a reduced slaughter resulted in full steady to firm trade throughout the period. Fresh 42s closed the week up $2.00/cwt. Meanwhile, 72s gained $5.00/cwt over the course of the week. Boneless picnics were up as well with gains of $6.00/cwt seen by Friday. PORK PROCESSING ITEMS & RETAIL CUTS PORK PROCESSING ITEMS & RETAIL CUTS Select Hams 20/23 PORK COMMENTARY While wholesale values began to rise on a lighter kill and seasonal demand, these gains were severely overshadowed by appreciation in hog values. Urner Barry’s pork carcass cutout climbed gradually throughout the week; going from $69.29/cwt to $72.47/cwt. During the same timeframe, Iowa Minnesota hogs rocketed higher, gaining 15.7 percent on average. The Urner Barry pork packer margin index for standard operations declined throughout the week, reaching ($9.74) by Friday. PORK PRODUCTION: Total pork production for the week ending May 2, 2015 was estimated at 463.1 million lbs. This total was .9 percent below the previous week and 6 percent over the same week a year ago. Average hog weights, at 285 pounds, were even with last week and three pounds less than last year. Lean Hog Cont. Front-Month Futures $0.780 219 lbs. LIVE HOGS & CUTOUT Apr-24 May-01 Change PORK CUTOUT Loin 22.71 23.805 1.095 Butt 8.495 9.548 1.053 Picnic 5.041 5.425 0.384 Sparerib 7.843 8.161 0.318 Ham 13.087 13.131 0.044 Belly 10.185 10.472 0.287 Cutout Value 69.286 72.472 3.186 $0.55 $0.21 $0.53 $0.98 $0.18 $0.50 4/27 Source: Urner Barry 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1 $0.23 4/27 Source: Urner Barry 4/28 4/29 4/30 5/1 4/27 4/28 4/29 4/30 Source: Urner Barry © 2015 Urner Barry. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by USA Federal copyright law. Please do not copy or redistribute this information. 5/1 Friday, May 01, 2015 Page 4 LAMB YS Carcass Lamb Y4+55/65 2014 2015 $3.70 YS Boxed Lamb Cuts, 206 Shoulder, Cross Cut $3.34 $3.14 $3.20 $/lb. $2.95 $2.94 $2.74 $2.70 J F M A M J J A S O N $2.54 D J F M A Source: Urner Barry Source: Urner Barry YS Boxed Lamb Cuts, 204 Rack, 8-Rib, 7/Up M J J A S O N D YS Boxed Lamb Cuts, 232 Loin Trmd 4x4 2014 2015 YS Boxed Lamb Cuts, 234 Leg, Boneless 2014 2015 $5.80 $5.90 $8.50 $5.60 $5.55 $/lb. $9.10 $7.90 $5.40 $7.30 $5.20 $6.70 J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N YS Carcass Veal, Hide-off, 255/315, North Central J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N $8.50 $4.53 $7.90 $/lb. $4.83 $4.23 $5.20 J F M A Source: Urner Barry D YS Boxed Veal Cuts, 310 Shoulder Clod 14/20 2014 2015 2015 $4.50 $5.00 D 2014 $4.85 VEAL $/lb. LAMB COMMENTARY Lamb carcasses settled at mostly steady price levels. Boxed lamb cuts were steady to slightly weaker. Discounts were noted on the legs. Trading activity was a little slower this week. $/lb. $/lb. $3.45 $/lb. 2014 2015 2014 2015 M J J A S O N D VEAL COMMENTARY Veal carcasses were steady to a little higher in some instances. Boxed cuts traded within the previously quoted price ranges. Movement was reportedly a little better in some areas. $7.30 $6.70 $3.93 $6.10 $3.63 J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N J D F M A M J J A S O N D Source: Urner Barry YS Boxed Veal Cuts, 306 Hotel Rack, 7-Rib 14/20 YS Boxed Veal Cuts, 332 Loin, 4x4 Trimmed 12/18 2014 2015 YS Boxed Veal Cuts, 348A Leg, TBS 3-Piece 24/32 2014 2015 $13.20 $10.70 $7.70 $12.45 $/lb. $10.00 $7.10 $9.30 $6.50 $8.60 $5.90 J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N $/lb. $8.30 $/lb. $11.40 $11.70 $10.95 J D 2014 2015 F M A M J J A S O N $10.20 D J F M A Source: Urner Barry Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N D FEEDS: CORN, SOY BEAN, RED WHEAT Yellow, Omaha Corn No. 2 $5.50 $1,600 2014 2015 $8.00 cents/bushel $4.00 $3.25 $1,200 $1,000 $2.50 J F Source: CME M A M J J A S O N $/bushel $1,400 $4.75 $/bushel Kansas City Hard Red Wheat 2014 2015 CBOT Soybean Features 2014 2015 $4.00 J F M Source: CME A M J J A S ! EW ALL N $6.00 $5.00 $800 D $7.00 O N J F M Source: KCBT D A M J J A S O N D 800-932-0617 shop.meatbuyersguide.com http://shop.meatbuyersguide.com Includes all USDA revisions to the IMPS 40 updated cuts • 50 new photos CUSTOM COVERS AVAILABLE © 2015 Urner Barry. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by USA Federal copyright law. Please do not copy or redistribute this information. Friday, May 01, 2015 Page 5 POULTRY UB NE WOG Chickens Cutting Stock 3 lbs & up $3.90 $/lb. $0.94 $/Gallon $1.19 $1.06 $1.11 $1.03 $0.82 J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N J F M A Source: Urner Barry D UB NE Jumbo Bnls/Sknls Breasts Tender Out M J J A S O N J $/Gallon $/lb. $/lb. J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N J F M A Source: Urner Barry $1.79 $0.48 $1.68 $/lb. $0.54 $0.42 $0.36 J J A S O N J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N D J A S O N D 2014 2015 $3.55 $2.95 J F M A M J Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy D J A S O N D 2014 2015 EW! ALL N $1.57 $1.46 $0.30 J $1.75 M UB Turkey Meat - Thigh, Fresh 2014 2015 M $2.35 $1.40 D UB NE Leg Quarters (bulk) $/lb. $2.80 $2.10 $1.30 A $4.15 $3.50 $1.50 M Gasoline 2014 2015 $2.10 $1.70 F Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy $4.20 $1.90 $3.20 $2.50 D UB Turkey Meat - Breast, Tom, Fresh 2014 2015 $3.55 $2.85 $0.95 $0.70 2014 2015 $4.25 $1.27 $1.18 $/lb. ENERGY Diesel 2014 2015 UB Toms, East, Frozen 16 lbs 2014 2015 $1.35 J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N D POULTRY COMMENTARY There still very much remains a split between and future supplies. Retailers and distributors are the top half and bottom half of the bird for the also caught up in the fray. Securing whole bird chicken industry. Boneless breast meat and offerings is a challenge and compounded by the tenders continue to be absorbed at a steady to advancing values being asked. Breast meat and full steady rate as needs for further processing tenderloins are firm and wanted and are more of and foodservice are active. The same can likely an immediate issue given their relationship with be said for whole birds, WOGs, and wings. seasonal cold cut requirements. There’s a sense Trading ranges for said lines finish the week that frozen thigh meat is building as Mexican well supported. Whole legs, leg quarters, and buyers do what they can to produce more pork drumsticks have not improved and selling levels ham based products in light of existing price trended lower this week so that sellers could differentials. Overall the market is stronger than keep product moving. The call for thigh meat anticipated as HPAI related events dictate its is still strong. Offerings are in close balance immediate course. with demand and spot sales are mostly market related. As for leg meat, supplies are deemed at least adequate for needs, which may vary from buyer to buyer, but are no better than fair. Contributors: With the current exception of the parts segment, the balance of the turkey complex is a reflection of the intertwining relationships shared by primary breeders, growers, processors and further processors. The existing status of offerings, along with their related prices, has almost everything to do with the course HPAI is taking and the impact it will have on near future Joe Muldowney - joemo@urnerbarry.com Bruce Longo - blongo@urnerbarry.com Bill Smith - bsmith@urnerbarry.com Jim Kenny - jkenny@urnerbarry.com Russ Whitman - rwhitman@urnerbarry.com Terence Wells - twells@urnerbarry.com Russ Barton- rbarton@urnerbarry.com Gary Morrison- gmorrison@urnerbarry.com http://shop.meatbuyersguide.com shop.meatbuyersguide.com 800-932-0617 CUSTOM COVERS AVAILABLE This report is offered to you conditioned on your acceptance without modification of the terms, conditions, and notices contained herein. Please read the End-User License Agreement (the “Agreement), a copy of which is available at www.urnerbarry.com before utilizing this Urner Barry product. Your use of a particular UB Product(s) may also be subject to additional terms set forth in the Agreement. Your use of the UB Product(s) constitutes your acceptance of all of the terms, conditions, and notices set forth in the Agreement. Urner Barry reserves the right to amend, remove, or add to these terms, conditions and notices at any time without notice. Accordingly please continue to review the Agreement whenever accessing or using the UB Product(s). If at any time you do not accept the Agreement along with the terms and conditions outlined in the Services and Products Order Form, you may not use this or any UB Product. Commodity Indecies, Cattle Fax, Daily Beef Quotations, Daily Pork Quotations, Daily Lamb & Veal Quotations, Daily Poultry Quotations, Beef and Pork Futures, USDA Direct Hogs, are quoted in $/lb; USDA Slaughter is quoted as Head in Thousands; USDA Production is quoted as Pounds in Millions; USDA Weights are quoted in Pounds; USDA Drop credit is quoted in $/cwt live; Feeds are quoted in $/Bushel; Gasoline & Diesel are quoted in Cents/Gallon. © 2015 Urner Barry. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by USA Federal copyright law. Please do not copy or redistribute this information.