Page 1 Friday, December 04, 2015 Friday, December 04, 2015 Number 49- Volume 08 WEEKLY COMMODITY AT A GLANCE 906.00 CBOT Soybean Last Week Last Year 3.62 3.80 875.25 1,036.00 $2.40 65.84 Loose Lard, Chicago Basis 0.36 0.36 0.37 Edible Tallow, Chicago Basis 0.21 0.21 0.40 Beef Trimmings, 90% Fresh 209.00 210.00 303.00 UB Pork Cutout Beef Trimmings, 50% Fresh 41.00 45.00 112.00 $1.40 278.00 $1.15 USDA Drop Credit 11.01 10.90 16.26 112A 3 Ribeye Roll, Lip-On CH 860.00 860.00 875.00 116A 3 Chuck Roll, Neck-Off CH 290.00 300.00 335.00 168 3 Round, Top (Inside) CH 214.00 214.00 315.00 180 3 Strip Loin, Bnls, 0x1 CH 550.00 580.00 560.00 136 Coarse Ground 81% 170.00 175.00 285.00 189A 4 Loin, Tenderloin, PSMO CH 126.18 125.88 171.50 Select Hams 20/23 71.00 65.00 98.00 Sq Cut Bellies 14/16 115.00 110.00 98.00 84.00 86.00 118.00 1/4 Trmd. Loins 21/dn 86.00 82.00 119.00 Spareribs, Light, Fresh 147.00 154.00 166.00 Fresh Pork Trim (42%) 22.00 20.00 34.00 1/4 Tr Boston Butts 9/dn Fresh Pork Trim (72%) J J A S O N D J F M A Source: Urner Barry 2014 2015 $0.65 J F M A M Source: Urner Barry J J A S O N EST. DAILY CATTLE SLAUGHTER M T W TH F S TW 110 108 105 110 109 18 LW 109 110 112 0 98 30 *LY 110 112 107 110 105 20 EST. DAILY HOG SLAUGHTER 459 564 TW 438 438 437 437 433 241 2,424 LW 440 438 440 2,129 1 433 377 *LY 431 427 430 428 426 95 2,236 EST. DAILY SHEEP SLAUGHTER 75.00 354.00 Lamb Cuts, 204 Rack, 8-Rib, 7/Up 790.00 785.00 855.00 Lamb Cuts, 206 Shoulder, Cross Cut 305.00 300.00 305.00 Lamb Cuts, 232 Loin Trmd 4x4 550.00 545.00 550.00 EST. DAILY CALVES SLAUGHTER Lamb Cuts, 234 Leg, Boneless 555.00 550.00 545.00 Carcass Veal, Hide-off, 255/315, NC 460.00 465.00 440.00 TW 2 2 1 2 2 0 9 LW 2 2 2 0 2 0 8 *LY 2 2 2 2 2 0 9 EST. DAILY COW & BULL SLAUGHTER 850.00 780.00 780.00 785.00 Veal Cuts, 348A Leg, TBS 3-Pc 24/32 1,270.00 1,275.00 1,220.00 Quotes represent the high side of Friday's trading range Restaurant Performance Index 103.0 102.5 102.0 9 9 7 9 7 0 41 9 9 5 0 6 1 30 8 9 8 8 6 0 40 F LW TW S M T 101.0 100.5 100.0 Source: Urner Barry, RPI W TH 11/20 11/21 11/23 11/24 11/25 11/26 23 8 20 11/27 11/28 11/30 23 22 0 12/1 12/2 12/3 Total 96 Total 20 8 21 22 23 23 117 *LY 18 8 20 22 22 21 111 *Last Year's numbers are rounded 101.5 N $1.05 D $0.75 M J J A This Week 560 39.00 850.00 O S O N D FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES 350.00 785.00 S 2014 2015 Total 39.00 Veal Cuts, 332 Loin, 4x4 Trim 12/18 A UB Chicken Index J F M A Source: Urner Barry 352.00 Veal Cuts, 310 Shoulder Clod 14/20 J $0.45 D Carcass Lamb Y4+55/65 Veal Cuts, 306 Hotel Rack, 7-Rib 14/20 1,085.00 1,080.00 1,110.00 J $0.60 $0.40 TW LW *LY M $0.90 $0.90 1,075.00 1,100.00 1,220.00 Cattle-Fax, 6-State Fed Steer Price $0.95 J F M A M Source: Urner Barry $/lb. 203.00 $1.80 $/lb. 201.50 $1.45 $1.20 $2.10 43.04 Aust/NZ Blend Cow 90% EC Spot 2014 2015 $1.70 $2.70 39.97 NYMEX Light Crude Oil UB Turkey Index $1.95 $/lb. 3.66 Omaha, US No 2 Yellow Corn UB Beef Index $3.00 $/lb. This Week 2014 2015 Last Week Australia, Dollar Mexico, Peso Canada, Dollar Japan, Yen China, Yuan (RMB) Brazil, Real South Korea, Won Taiwan, Dollar European Union, Euro Last Year 0.734 0.719 0.833 16.670 16.616 14.376 1.338 1.337 1.143 123.206 122.863 121.341 6.385 6.388 6.150 3.754 3.846 2.589 1,163.500 1,155.000 1,121.070 32.683 32.593 31.285 1.087 1.059 1.229 COLD STORAGE STOCKS (Pounds in Thousands) 10/31/14 9/30/15 10/31/15 Beef in Freezer, Bnls 459,080 471,787 342,898 Cuts 38,030 39,789 39,266 Total Beef 380,928 498,346 511,576 10/31/14 9/30/15 10/31/15 PORK & OTHER Pork in Freezer, Picnics 10,893 10,490 8,472 Hams 162,035 247,306 197,276 10,872 17,796 29,006 Bellies 23,525 Loins 30,012 28,937 69,374 Spareribs 85,310 97,697 23,458 Butts 18,793 19,464 39,952 37,337 Trimmings 36,886 106,218 100,413 97,433 Other Pork in Freezer 655,517 602,656 533,076 Total 5,924 6,172 3,797 Veal in Freezer Lamb & Mutton in Freezer 40,984 41,921 38,686 47,156 Total 47,845 42,483 The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) recorded a slight gain in October, to 102.1. Stronger same-store sales were the largest catalyst. This marked the 32nd consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which Data Updated: November 24, 2015 signifies expansion, according to the NRA. © 2015 Urner Barry. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by USA Federal copyright law. Please do not copy or redistribute this information. Friday, December 04, 2015 Page 2 UB BEEF CUTOUT Dec-04 v. Nov-25 SELECT NO-ROLL CAB 1.23% -0.35% 0.43% -0.24% 540 480 Chuck 0.14% 1.49% 1.02% -0.77% Round -0.11% -0.07% -1.05% -1.25% Loin -2.50% -1.29% -1.95% -2.26% Brisket 2.85% 3.95% 1.45% 2.66% Plate 0.33% 0.33% 0.33% -0.53% Flank -0.68% -0.69% -0.69% -0.01% Total -0.35% 0.07% -0.33% -1.05% 2014 2015 Live Cattle, 6-State Fed Steer Price J F M A M J Source: USDA, Urner Barry A S O N D 2014 2015 590 J F M A Source: Cattle Fax M J J A S O N 430 J D F M A M J J A S O N D Source: USDA, Urner Barry 2014 2015 Cow and Bull Slaughter Live Cattle Cont. Front-Month Futures 150 Thousand Head/Week 1.340 1.305 1.270 1.235 130 90 70 11/30 Source: CME 12/1 12/2 12/3 J 12/4 F M A M J J A S O N D Source: USDA, Urner Barry 2014 2015 Drop Credit 2014 2015 Cattle Weights 860 $17.00 844 lbs. $15.25 $13.50 $11.75 828 812 796 780 $10.00 J F M Source: USDA A M J J A S O N D UB 50 % Trimmings J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: USDA, Urner Barry 2014 2015 Select Grading Percentage $0.58 29% $0.52 26% $0.45 23% $0.39 11/30 12/1 12/2 12/3 12/4 Source: Urner Barry 17% J F M A M J J A S O N D 2014 2015 Choice Grading Percentage 72% $2.18 $2.09 $1.99 11/30 12/1 Source: Urner Barry 12/2 12/3 12/4 UB BEEF CUTOUT-CH/SE SPREAD ($/cwt) M T W TH F TW 11.26 11.41 11.06 10.76 10.73 *LW 10.46 11.13 11.58 - 600 400 67% 0 J F M A M Source: USDA, Urner Barry J J A S O N D 1 load = 40,000 lbs. 800 200 62% $1.80 LOINS: Much to the dismay of packers, the little interest in ribeyes failed to spill over into loins. Not only did strips and short loins fall, but the largest loser was tenderloins. BONELESS BEEF: Fresh 50s trended lower as the week developed. Supplies ranged from packer to packer. This week’s cattle slaughter was estimated at 560,000 head. Leaner boneless beef was steady to slightly higher. Demand was a little more active in some regions. Availability of livestock also varied from region to region. 70% 65% $1.90 ROUNDS: Much like chucks, roasts moved lower. There has been talk that current levels bode well for London Broil features for retailers. It will be interesting to see how it plays out butting up against the holidays. Weekly Beef Breakdown (# of loads) Source: USDA, Urner Barry UB 90 % Trimmings RIBS: While there was evidence of last minute holiday bookings, it was not as expected and still fell short of most offerings. Light ribs moved slightly higher as heavy cattle limited product. Heavy ribs not nearly as lucky *Last Week's numbers are rounded 20% $0.32 LIVE CATTLE: Cattle owners came into the week with confidence for higher money. Sluggish boxed beef sales pushed against them and they almost resigned to the fact it wasn’t going to happen. With that they moved live cattle $121.00/cwt to mostly $123.00/cwt; dressed mainly $195.00/cwt. CHUCKS: Warmer weather around parts of the country limited roast features and associated demand. The chuck complex edged lower as a result. 110 1.200 BEEF COMMENTARY It was a struggle moving boxed beef this week. Space previously occupied by turkeys was replaced hams and boneless skinless chicken that provided better price value. Discounts on most items became the norm. Light ribs were supported as cattle remain heavy limiting offerings at a time when last minute purchasing was lightly seen. The other only notable positive were briskets. They seemed to find support at the $2.00/cwt level and bounced higher from there. SLAUGHTER & BEEF PRODUCTION: The weekly F.I. Slaughter was assessed at 560,000 head. This was 22% above last week’s shortened holiday week but 0.7% lower from the same week last year. At 1394, live cattle weights were one pound higher from last week and 26 pounds heavier than this week last year; while dressed cattle weights increased a pound this week. 510 350 $1.14 $/lb. J Cattle Slaughter Thousand Head/Week $/lb. $1.44 $1.29 $/cwt 360 670 $1.59 $/lb. 420 300 $1.74 $/lb. 2014 2015 Beef Production Million lbs. Rib BEEF BEEF CHOICE Last week This week Trim 61.32 60.16 Grind 173.19 108.27 SE 133.73 117.40 CH 359.65 266.41 Source: USDA, Urner Barry © 2015 Urner Barry. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by USA Federal copyright law. Please do not copy or redistribute this information. Page 3 Friday, December 04, 2015 PORK PRODUCTION 2014 2015 Thousand Head/Week Hog Slaughter 2,550 2,300 2,050 1,800 1,550 J F M A Source: USDA, Urner Barry M J J A S O N D 2014 2015 Dressed weights, Hogs 220 Lean Hog Cont. Front-Month Futures $0.638 217 215 $0.594 212 $0.572 210 $0.550 207 J F M A M Source: USDA, Urner Barry J J A S O N 11/30 D 12/2 12/3 12/4 Source: CME Pork Production 2014 2015 2014 2015 USDA Direct Hogs, Iowa/Minnesota, Carcass Base 520 $1.64 475 $1.34 $/lb. Million lbs. 12/1 430 385 $1.04 $0.74 $0.44 340 J F M A M J Source: USDA, Urner Barry J A S O N J D F M A M J J A S O N D UB Select Hams 20/23 UB TL Spareribs, Light, Fresh (Vacpak) $0.72 $1.53 $0.69 $1.50 $/lb. 12/2 12/3 11/30 12/1 Source: Urner Barry 12/4 UB TL Sq. Cut Bellies 14/16 12/2 12/3 12/4 UB TL 1/4 in. Tr Boston Butts 9/dn $1.16 $0.89 $1.12 $/lb. $/lb. $1.47 $1.42 11/30 12/1 Source: Urner Barry $1.08 $0.86 $0.82 $1.04 $0.79 $1.00 11/30 12/1 12/2 12/3 $0.75 12/4 11/30 Source: Urner Barry 12/1 12/2 12/3 RETAIL: Trade in fresh pork was narrowly mixed, largely in-range most days, however with some exceptions. Where excess inventories showed, there was a willingness to discount given the high rate of production. This week, loins continued to be discounted. Bone-in loin values fell another $2.00 to $3.00/cwt, bone-in centers $3.00 to $4.00, and boneless loins traded in some wide ranges; the balance of the component ranged steady to weaker. Tenderloins remain at their lowest value since 2002. Picnics have come under pressure in recent sessions; counter to what’s seasonally expected. Meanwhile there’s strength in cushion meat. Butt values continued to exhibit modest strength, this week $2.00 to $4.00/cwt higher. The sparerib market ranged $3.00 to $5.00/cwt lower given a decline in manufacturing activity. St. Louis Rib values held, while Loin Back Ribs ranged steady to firm. 12/4 Source: Urner Barry UB TL 1/4 in. Tr Loins 21/dn UB Pork Trim (72%) Fr TL UB Pork Trim (42%) Fr TL $0.88 $0.50 $0.25 $0.86 $0.45 $0.23 $/lb. $/lb. TRIMMINGS: Trimmings were mostly flat on the week, with some participants rendering 42s to keep supplies in balance. $1.45 $0.60 HAMS: Bone-in hams 17 to 27lbs gained $6.00/ cwt across all three weight groupings this week while boneless hams managed to raise a more modest $3.00/cwt. $0.84 $0.82 $/lb. $/lb. PORK PROCESSING ITEMS & RETAIL CUTS PORK PROCESSING ITEMS & RETAIL CUTS $0.63 GREEN MEATS: Seasonality took hold in the green meat complex, with holiday ham demand and freezer demand for bellies helping keep values supported. Meanwhile, diminished interest for sausage as the weather cools and the record production pork production levels prevented gains in trimmings. BELLIES: Square-cut and skinless bellies gained $1.00 to $5.00/cwt with the larger gains among the lighter weights. Source: USDA, Urner Barry $0.66 PORK COMMENTARY U.S. pork output this week was estimated at 517.4 million pounds, setting a new high for the third time in the latest five weeks. Production in four of the last five weeks has topped the old record of 501.3 million pounds set in December of 2007. According to the Urner Barry Pork Packer Margin Index, standard operating margins ranged between $34.46 and $39.93/head this week. The Urner Barry pork carcass cutout fell from $71.18/ cwt last Friday to $72.24/cwt to close this week. Meanwhile, Iowa-Minnesota hogs increased slightly from $51.57/cwt last Friday to $52.44/ cwt this Friday on a weighted average basis. PORK PRODUCTION: Total pork production for the week ending December 5, 2015 was estimated at 517.4 million lbs. This total was 14 percent over the previous week and 7.4 percent higher than the same week a year ago. Average hog weights, at 286 pounds, were even with last week and two pounds under last year. $0.616 $/lb. lbs. LIVE HOGS & CUTOUT Nov-25 Dec-04 Change PORK CUTOUT Loin 19.336 19.100 -0.236 Butt 7.352 7.553 0.201 Picnic 5.663 5.197 -0.466 Sparerib 6.753 6.515 -0.238 Ham 13.491 14.635 1.144 Belly 16.700 17.370 0.670 Cutout Value 71.182 72.242 1.06 $0.40 $0.18 $0.35 $0.80 $0.15 $0.30 11/30 Source: Urner Barry 12/1 12/2 12/3 12/4 $0.20 11/30 Source: Urner Barry 12/1 12/2 12/3 12/4 11/30 12/1 12/2 12/3 Source: Urner Barry © 2015 Urner Barry. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by USA Federal copyright law. Please do not copy or redistribute this information. 12/4 Friday, December 04, 2015 Page 4 LAMB COMMENTARY LAMB UB Carcass Lamb Y4+55/65 2014 2015 $3.70 UB Boxed Lamb Cuts, 206 Shoulder, Cross Cut $3.34 $3.14 $3.20 $/lb. $2.95 $2.94 $2.74 $2.70 J F M A M J J A S O N $2.54 D J F M A Source: Urner Barry Source: Urner Barry UB Boxed Lamb Cuts, 204 Rack, 8-Rib, 7/Up M J J A S O N D UB Boxed Lamb Cuts, 232 Loin Trmd 4x4 2014 2015 UB Boxed Lamb Cuts, 234 Leg, Boneless 2014 2015 $5.80 $5.90 $8.50 $5.60 $5.55 $/lb. $9.10 $7.90 $5.40 $7.30 $5.20 $6.70 J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N UB Carcass Veal, Hide-off, 255/315, North Central J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N $9.10 $4.53 $8.35 $/lb. $4.83 $4.23 $5.20 J F M A Source: Urner Barry D UB Boxed Veal Cuts, 310 Shoulder Clod 14/20 2014 2015 2015 $4.50 $5.00 D 2014 $4.85 VEAL $/lb. Lamb carcasses were mostly steady. Some of the lighter weights traded in limited quantities at a premium. Boxed cuts were steady to slightly higher in some instances. Year-to-date lamb production is down about 5% compared to the equivalent time period for last year. $/lb. $/lb. $3.45 $/lb. 2014 2015 2014 2015 $7.60 M J J A S O N D VEAL COMMENTARY Veal carcasses were steady to slightly lower in some isolated cases. Boxed cuts were mixed. Premiums were noted on some of the loins and osso buco hindshanks. Discounts developed on a few of the shoulders, legs and top rounds. Movement was a little more active. $6.85 $3.93 $6.10 $3.63 J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N J D F M A M J J A S O N D Source: Urner Barry UB Boxed Veal Cuts, 306 Hotel Rack, 7-Rib 14/20 UB Boxed Veal Cuts, 332 Loin, 4x4 Trimmed 12/18 2014 2015 UB Boxed Veal Cuts, 348A Leg, TBS 3-Piece 24/32 2014 2015 $13.20 $10.70 $7.70 $12.45 $/lb. $10.00 $7.10 $9.30 $6.50 $8.60 $5.90 J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N $/lb. $8.30 $/lb. $11.40 $11.70 $10.95 J D 2014 2015 F M A M J J A S O N $10.20 D J F M A Source: Urner Barry Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N D FEEDS: CORN, SOY BEAN, RED WHEAT Yellow, Omaha Corn No. 2 $1,600 $3.20 $1,200 $1,000 $2.50 J F Source: CME M A M J J A S O N $8.00 $/bushel $3.90 $3.50 J F M Source: CME A M J J A S ! EW ALL N $6.50 $5.00 $800 D 2014 2015 $9.50 $1,400 $4.60 cents/bushel $/bushel $5.30 Kansas City Hard Red Wheat 2014 2015 CBOT Soybean Features 2014 2015 O N D J F M Source: KCBT A M J J A S O N D 800-932-0617 shop.meatbuyersguide.com http://shop.meatbuyersguide.com Includes all USDA revisions to the IMPS 40 updated cuts • 50 new photos CUSTOM COVERS AVAILABLE © 2015 Urner Barry. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by USA Federal copyright law. Please do not copy or redistribute this information. Friday, December 04, 2015 Page 5 POULTRY $1.43 $1.10 $1.31 $0.90 $3.82 $1.19 $0.95 J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N J F M A Source: Urner Barry D UB NE Jumbo Bnls/Sknls Breasts Tender Out M J J A S O N J F M A M J J A S Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Urner Barry O N Gasoline 2014 2015 $6.40 $2.10 $2.32 D UB Turkey Meat - Breast, Tom, Fresh 2014 2015 $3.32 $2.82 $1.07 $0.50 2014 2015 $4.32 $/Gallon $1.30 $0.70 D 2014 2015 $4.15 $5.40 $1.50 $1.20 $4.40 $/Gallon $/lb. $/lb. $1.80 $3.40 J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N J F M A Source: Urner Barry $1.88 $0.55 $1.72 $/lb. $0.70 $0.40 $0.25 M J J A S O N UB Turkey Meat - Thigh, Fresh 2014 2015 UB NE Leg Quarters (bulk) J F M A M J J A Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Urner Barry D J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N D O N D EW! ALL N $1.56 $1.24 J F M A Source: Urner Barry M J J A S O N D POULTRY COMMENTARY Following Thanksgiving business is never very business. With that said processor inventories are kind to chicken. This week has experienced a in close balance. Consumer breasts are becoming mix of conditions but overall movement has somewhat more adequate for the call but no more been better than anticipated. Part of this is how than that. Prices are stable. Institutional breasts attractive prices are with many lines quoted at are firm. The level of interest is somewhat mixed. 52 week lows. Regular business is ok and there’s Breast meat closes the first week of December been some uptick to wings. Looking forward the unchanged. We’d say that finding a load or two question is will there be enough demand to keep has become less challenging at maintained price a semblance of balance as the more traditional points. Thigh meat is displaying a soft undertone holiday items again make their presence known. but the real log jam involves the fully adequate Foodservice orders are improving and adding supplies of bone-in thigh. The major parts are no needed stability to items such as leg meat, wings better than about steady but unchanged as the and even tenders. Boneless breasts are adequate week winds down. to handle spot needs without much haggling over value. Whole birds and WOGs have cooled off some from earlier this week. Bone in dark meat is bouncing along with enough inquiries surfacing to keep it interesting. With Christmas just a short three weeks away the amount of negotiated trade in the turkey market is on the retreat. Here at week’s end conditions look about the same as they did on Monday morning. Whole birds are trending lower in response to the expected seasonal influences that go hand in hand with yearend S 2014 2015 $1.40 $0.10 $2.95 $1.75 $1.40 D $3.55 $2.35 $2.40 $0.90 $/lb. ENERGY Diesel 2014 2015 UB Toms, East, Frozen 16 lbs 2014 2015 $/lb. $/lb. UB NE WOG Chickens Cutting Stock 3 lbs & up http://shop.meatbuyersguide.com shop.meatbuyersguide.com 800-932-0617 CUSTOM COVERS AVAILABLE Contributors: Joe Muldowney - joemo@urnerbarry.com Bruce Longo - blongo@urnerbarry.com Bill Smith - bsmith@urnerbarry.com Jim Kenny - jkenny@urnerbarry.com Russ Whitman - rwhitman@urnerbarry.com Terence Wells - twells@urnerbarry.com Russ Barton- rbarton@urnerbarry.com Gary Morrison- gmorrison@urnerbarry.com This report is offered to you conditioned on your acceptance without modification of the terms, conditions, and notices contained herein. Please read the End-User License Agreement (the “Agreement), a copy of which is available at www.urnerbarry.com before utilizing this Urner Barry product. Your use of a particular UB Product(s) may also be subject to additional terms set forth in the Agreement. Your use of the UB Product(s) constitutes your acceptance of all of the terms, conditions, and notices set forth in the Agreement. Urner Barry reserves the right to amend, remove, or add to these terms, conditions and notices at any time without notice. Accordingly please continue to review the Agreement whenever accessing or using the UB Product(s). If at any time you do not accept the Agreement along with the terms and conditions outlined in the Services and Products Order Form, you may not use this or any UB Product. Commodity Indecies, Cattle Fax, Daily Beef Quotations, Daily Pork Quotations, Daily Lamb & Veal Quotations, Daily Poultry Quotations, Beef and Pork Futures, USDA Direct Hogs, are quoted in $/lb; USDA Slaughter is quoted as Head in Thousands; USDA Production is quoted as Pounds in Millions; USDA Weights are quoted in Pounds; USDA Drop credit is quoted in $/cwt live; Feeds are quoted in $/Bushel; Gasoline & Diesel are quoted in Cents/Gallon. © 2015 Urner Barry. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by USA Federal copyright law. Please do not copy or redistribute this information.