Doc - WMO

Research was carried out on Wind flow and Rainfall throughout the country. As usual,
the country was divided into three regions (1) The Southern region which lays between
Longitudes 30N and Latitude 80N (2) The Middle Belt which lies between latitudes 80N
and 110N (3) The North which lies between 110N and 130N respectively. The results
from the maps drawn and attached showed that:
The Southern state wind flow ranges between 3.40 meters per second and 4.40
meters per second. Wind values increases from the Southwest and Southeast
towards the through surrounding Enugu, which is approximately 4.80 meters per
The Middle Belt states distribution also shows a similar pattern of the Southern
states. Wind values increase from both west and east towards the Center,
meaning Jos will approximately be 6.40 meters per second.
observation is the wind flow pattern around Yola and Maiduguri. The trend is
increase in flow pattern towards the northeast.
The Northern states shows an all increase in flow pattern towards the north west
and the north east. Wind flow ranges between 4.80 meters per second and 7.40
meters per second at Katsina near Nigeria/Niger Republic boarder.
Generally, wind flow pattern increases from the South to the North, ranging
between 3.40 meters per second, and 7.40 meters per second in Katsina.
The rainfall pattern in the South increases from the west to the east, with values
ranging between 1,600mm and 2,200mm from latitude 30N to latitude 6.80N.
The values from 6.8N and 8N ranges from 1,200mm to 1,500mm.
In the middle belt rainfall values in the west and east range between 800mm to
1,200mm. Another significant observation is the rainfall pattern around Jos
Plateau the rainfall value here is 1200mm exceeding all other towns and villages
on the same latitude (orographic effect).
In the northern states the range is between 700mm to 1,000mm.
Generally, rainfall decreases from the South to the North. A significant factor
that account for the pattern of rainfall in the South and the North is the
existence of double regime in the south (April to June), and late August till
November, while the north with a single regime rain lasts from June till
I have predicted dry and wet spells between June 2004 till December 2004.
For the
month of June, I predicted 7 days of no rain event. We had 8 days of no rain event. In
the month of July, I predicted 13 days of no rain event and we have 18 days of no rain
event. This prediction agrees with the forecast made for Southern region Lagos, the
rainfall is likely to be below normal. The little dry season started very much earlier in
the last week of June. The season is windy, cold, and characterized with localized
showers and drizzle.
The seasonal rainfall forecast for the country for the year 2004 provides for above
normal rainfall between 30 – 35 percent for inland areas while a 33 percent probability
of below normal is expected for the southernmost areas. The season of interest run
from April – October for the later June – September for the northernmost areas. The
percent error of the forecast is about 10 percent plus or minis of the departure.
A. Oniarah
Climate / Investigation Services Division
Directorate of Weather Forecasting Services
Nigerian Meteorological Agency
Lagos – Nigeria
Mobile phone Fax No.
[email protected]
+ 234 – 1 – 08023005905
+ 234 – 1 – 2636097
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