Decision Making and Problem Solving
Module 1: The Decision Making Process
Case Study/Group Activity 1
Case Study/Group Activity
Read the scenario below and assume that your group is the emergency management agency for
the potential impact area. As a group, analyze the problem and identify how the decisions you
make might impact activities in the future.
Scenario
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Warning # 20
26 September 2010 1500Z
TYPHOON 08W IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM WEST OF HAINAN,
CHINA AND HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. 08W IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
APPROACHES LANDFALL SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM.
MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 177KM/H AND MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IS ESTIMATED AT 7.62M. NEXT WARNING
ISSUED: 262100Z.
DMPS_M1.1_CSGA_1
Questions
*Remember your team should answer the following questions from the perspective of the
emergency management agency.
1. Based on the JTWC warning above, would you: (as a team choose only one)
A. Notify the population of the approaching storm and recommend those living in
low lying areas move to higher ground.
B. Notify the population of the approaching storm and evacuate the potentially
impacted population.
List the key factors that influenced your decision.
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If your group chose A then proceed to question 2A. If your team chose B then proceed to
question 2B.
2A You have informed the public of the approaching typhoon and have recommended
those living in low lying areas move to higher ground. Approximately 1/3 of the
population in the potential impact area have voluntarily evacuated to high ground in
adjacent provinces as a precautionary measure.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Warning # 21 issued 26 September 2100Z
indicates that the typhoon is continuing to strengthen bringing with it torrential rain.
The warning also indicates that the storm has shifted slightly north and is expected to
make landfall just east of Hanoi within the next six hours. The outer rainbands of the
storm are expected to begin impacting the area within the hour.
Approximately 2/3 of the population still remain in the forecasted impact area. What
new risks exist for this population? Have they become more vulnerable? How do these
circumstances affect your response?
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After completing question 2A move to question 3.
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2B You have informed the public of the approaching typhoon and have evacuated the
population in the potentially impacted area. However, small portions of the population
ignored the evacuation order and remain in the potential impact area. Search and
rescue teams have identified areas where people remain at risk.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Warning # 21 issued 26 September 2100Z
indicates that the typhoon is continuing to strengthen bringing with it torrential rain.
The warning also indicates that the storm has shifted slightly north and is expected to
make landfall just east of Hanoi within the next six hours. The outer rainbands of the
storm are expected to begin impacting the area within the hour.
What new risks exist to the population that did not evacuate? Has the remaining
population become more vulnerable? How do these risks affect your response
personnel?
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After completing question 2B move to question 3.
3
What was the key factor(s) that influenced your initial decision? (e.g. political,
economic, limited resources, etc.) Would you now change your initial decision, why or
why not?
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