ON THE HISTORY OF THE DISCOVERY OF RADON (GEOCHEMICAL) AND
METEOROLOGICAL EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS
BORIS MAVASHEV
The Association "Science and Education Center for
Repatriate of the Middle Asia", Aba Achimeir St. 207/33.
Jerusalem 97350, Israel. E-mail: boris0939@013net.net
The Report on 9 January ,2012 at the Scientists House in Rehovot
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
BORIS MAVASHEV, physics, D.Sc. of geochemistry and ecology. For many years worked as senior researcher in the R&D Institutes of Kurortologia (spa-studying) and
physiotherapy, Middle Asia Institute of Meteorology and Ecology and in the Tashkent Autoway Institute (Tashkent, Uzbekistan). In Israel worked in the Jerusalem College of Technology and Holon Center for Technological Education, and others. Over
70 scientific papers, 50 scientific reports, published 3 books. Author of the Discovery
of Radon and Meteorological earthquake precursors, active member of the New York Academy of Sciences. For outstanding scientific achievements he was awarded
international medals and diplomas.
RADON EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS
Early in the morning on April 26, 1966, there occurred a destructive in Tashkent ( the capital of Uzbekistan). The epicenter of
this earthquake was situated in the central part of the town. Magnitude M- 5.5, depth of focus H-7-8 km. As a result of this
earthquake, hundreds of thousands stayed without shelter, thousands were injured, dozens were killed. After the first shock,
the town population permanently sensed the aftershocks, and the seismic station "Tashkent" continued to register hundreds
new shocks. There was especially strong the return underground shock in the night 9th to 10th May, 1966. There began panic
in the town. In such conditions there established the problem about the short-term earthquakes prediction. The famous methods of the earth surface slopes measurements, electric and magnetic fields, statistical investigations of the foreshocks for
short-term predictions of the Tashkent earthquake return shocks being in possession of seismologists and geophysics were
without success. Then, by the author of the present article was proposed geochemical principal of earthquakes predictions,
based on the use of radon concentration variations in Tashkent mineral underground water (1,2). The radon method was burn
as result of the many years radon concentration measurements in mineral water of the Tashkent artesian basin fulfilled at the
Department for studying the health resorts potential of Uzbekistan at the Scientific research institute of health resorts studies
and physiotherapy in Tashkent, where the author work in the time as the research fellow at the physics laboratory and was occupied by radon, radioactivity and spectral composition studies of curing mineral water in Uzbekistan.
The radon concentration measurements in thermo-mineral water in the hole of the 1900 m depth and situated near the 26th
April 1966 earthquake epicenter and so the fulfilled statistical analysis showed the main earthquake and remarkable decrease
after it. This circumstance lead for the idea to use radon as the earthquake indicator. The revealed regularities of radon concentration changes in underground water made possible to predict the series of the Tashkent earthquake aftershocks before
4-5 days (3,4). In further the radon method of earthquakes prediction has got wide recognition in the word. It was accepted as
the armament of seismologists of China, Japan, USA, USSR, Germany, Turkey, Italy et al. In the last 30-40 years after the earthquakes radon precursors were discovered, there were published hundreds articles in the word scientific literature, were conducted international conferences, confirmed the regularities received on the Tashkent seismic-geophysical polygon. Author
submitted his method for earthquake forecasts with an others for the Diploma No 129 in Moscow. This document was registered in 1973 in the State Register (5) and was awarded this Diploma in 1977. Academician V. I. Popov, who presented the first
B. Mavashev's article (1), write in 1973: "B.Z. Mavashev is the real and the only Pioneer-Discoverer of the Radon method and
connected to it the geochemical principle for tectonic earthquakes prediction … There is place to stress, consider separately
and undoubted role of B.Z. Mavashev in this discovery" (6).
METEOROLOGICAL EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS
On 4 April 1990 B. Mavashev together with his family moved to Israel and settled in Jerusalem. He continued his scientific work
these lines on the recommendation of the institute of Geophysics and Oil in Holon presents the scientific project on theme:
"Geochemical and Meteorological Aspects of Earthquake Prediction" in the Ministry of Science and Energy of Israel to obtain
- 2the financial support. He work at the "Machon Lev" Technological Institute and at the Academic Institute of Holon and others.
For pity first project as well as the other projects "Automated Control System of Eco-geodynamical Processes for Earthquake
Prediction", "The Analysis and Estimate of Interrelation Between Ecological and Geodynamic Processes", "Warming of Global
Climate end Earthquakes" and others. During 20 years he prepared and submitted to various organizations of Israel 15 scientific projects, published in Israel, the USA, Japan, Europa over 30 scientific studies, took part many local and international scientific conferences (7) .
The essence of the new meteorological method of short-term earthquake prediction is based on the author's work of the last
10 years in the Middle Asia Institute of Meteorology and in the Tashkent Autoway Institute where he studied atmosphere air
pollution in the Tashkent and the suburb. The performed researches of the atmosphere air pollution dependence from the
meteorological conditions showed by the way the anomalies are interrelated with the seismic-tectonic processes, going in
the earth crust. So was determined that the anomalies are forgoing and accompanying the earthquakes and there were found
the mostly informative meteorological precursors- the are first of all - the wind direction shift and air temperature increase before earthquake, The meteorological precursors are manifesting themselves practically before each earthquake in the Middle
Asia and so they confirmed before the earthquakes on the Middle East, and in another regions of the Earth (8). Weather anomalies preceded an increased seismic activity (9,10). In July 2003, in connection with an unprecedented heat wave in western
and Central Europe, the author published on the internet an official communication about a strong earthquake to be expected
in Europe in the next time, after which a u0sual weather will be reestablished. On 14 August in Western Greece there occurred
an earthquake with a magnitude 6.5, and on 18 August subterraneous tremors were felt in Austria and Spain. The forecast had
come true. An official and documented early warning of an earthquake within the next few days with an epicenter to the south
of Central Russia was on 7 August 2010 on the Internet and addressed to the NASA. On 8 August 2010 in three earthquakes
with a magnitude of up 5.0-took place in Greece in several places. The forecast had come true again. The emergence of hurricanes "Katrina" of danger category 5 and "Rita" at the Central America on 2005 also connected with the seismic and volcano
eruption activity in the Central American region (11).
Therefore the proposed common use of meteorological and radon precursors gives possibility to resolve the problem of shortterm prediction of time, magnitude and the place of earthquakes with the good exactitude (12).
ISRAEL EARTHQUAKES AND THEIR PREDICTION
As is known, territory of Israel is located in the zone Syrian-African active fault of the earth crust. Numerous devastating earthquakes occurred in this region with many casualties (13). Over the last 2000 years in Israel took place 20-25 destructive earthquakes, which were accompanied by numerous victims among the population. The earliest earthquake occurred in the area
Dead Sea about 4000 years ago and was accompanied by a volcanic eruption. Sodom and Gomorrah were turned to ashes (Tanakh).
Global climate changes over the past 40 years is closely correlated with seismic activity increased on Earth, and particularly in
Israel. Earthquake on 22 November, 1995 with magnitude more than 6.0 occurred in the 100 km south of Eilat. Epicenter was
in the Red Sea. Earthquake on 11 February, 2004 with magnitude of 5.1 caused a panic among the population and a small fracture. The epicenter was his in the north of the Dead Sea. This earthquake and other earthquakes were successfully predicted
predicted for 2-3 days with the help of meteorological precursors (9,13, 14,15).
In order to provide early earthquake prediction proposed an integrated studies of geochemical, hydrological and meteorologycal precursors, and the creation at the Jerusalem International Centre for Research on Climate change and earthquakes prediction.
REFERENCES
1.Mavashev B. 1967a. "Anomalies of the radioactivity (radon) of Tashkent minerals water in1965-1966 and earthquake",
Uzbek. Acad. Sc., No 5
2. Ulomov v.I., Mavashev B. 1967b. "The precursor of a strong tectonic earthquake", USSR Acad. of Sc. v176
3. Mavashev B. with co-author. 1967c. " The possibility of prognosticating after-shocks of the Tashkent earthquake
proceeding
from the variation of radon concentration in the thermo-mineral water of the Tashkent artesian basin", All-Union
Conference on the Tashkent Earthquake, FAN publishers
4. Mavashev B. 1972 . "The variation radon concentration in the thermo-mineral water of the Tashkent artesian basin in
con-nectioin with seismic manifestation in Tashkent epicenter zone", Abstract of the Ph.D. thesis, Uzbek
Acad. Sc. publishers, Tashkent
5. Mavashev B. with co-author. 1973. "Phenomena of chemical composition changes of subsurface waters by earthquake,
USSR Register of Discoveries, Diploma of Discovery 129, Moscow
6.Popov V. I. 1973. "To the History of Discovery of Geochemical Principle and the Radon Method of Tectonic
Earthquakes Prediction", Tashkent University, published in the B. Mavashev's book "About Interrelation Between Meteorological and Seismic-Tectonics Processes and the Earthquakes Prediction", 1996,p.p 44-52, Jerusalem
7. Mavashev B., Mozer I. 2011. "Boris Mavashev", Wikipedia
8. Mavashev B. 1996. "About interrelation between meteorological and seismic-tectonic processes and eartquake prediction", the Israel Mineral Science and Engineering Association, Syhron Yaqov, Israel
9. Mavashev B. 1996. The Book also on theme. Center for Technological Education Holon, Israel Mineral Science
and Engineering Association, 13 Annual Meeting, Jerusalem
10. Mavashev B. 2004. "The Weather Anomalies and Earthquakes Prediction", Seminar of scientific association
ECOST, and Ministry of Ecology, Ministry of Absorption and Immigrant Scientific forum, Jerusalem
11. Mavashev B. 2005. "Weather Anomalies and Earthquakes", Engineering Center Immigrants Sharon, Ideas, Projects and Technology , No 4, Israel
12. Mavashev B. 2004, 2007. "Method for Earthquake Prediction", Patent Application No 16790/2, Israel, ECOST,
10th Annual Ecological Immigrant Scientist Conference, Jerusalem
13. Mavashev B. 2010. "The Anomalous Hottest Summer of 2010 and Earthquakes", The House of Scientists at the
Rehovot, Internet Site: rehes.org
14. Mavashev B. 2011. "The Forecast Materializes again", The House of Scientists at the Rehovot, Internet Site:rehes.org
15. Mavashev B. 2011 " Dead Sea earthquakes and theirs prediction", ECOST, 14th Annual Conference of Immigrant Scientist, jerusalem
.