Dr A R (Lex) Fullarton
PhD MCom
ATTA FIPA CTA AREI AIMM
P O Box 180
Carnarvon WA 6701
0409 845 318/08 9941 1726
February 9, 2016
Renewable Energy Target Review
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet
PO Box 6500
CANBERRA ACT 2600
Australia
Part B of Submission to Review of Renewable Energy Target 2014
Key Modelling Assumptions
I note that the first recommendation the 2013 Renewable Energy Target (RET) review was
that no further reviews were to be scheduled prior to 2016. This review is contrary to that
recommendation. Rather than providing ‘an appropriate balance between flexibility in the
scheme and policy stability for investments’1
As to the key modelling assumptions I suggest that the RET of 20 per cent, once considered
far sighted and almost unattainable, is now far short of what it can be. I further suggest that
scientific data that the Earth’s atmosphere is facing a rise in carbon dioxide (and a subsequent
fall in oxygen) component is irrefutable. The assumption that a RET of 20 per cent must be
reviewed with an intent to INCREASE that percentage of non-polluting fuels not decrease it.
Electricity demand
The assumption that electricity demand is falling I believe is incorrect. I suggest it continues
to rise, however quantifiable data is being masked by ‘in-house’ consumption of dispersed
embedded generation systems, in particular solar photovoltaic systems (pv). Forecasting will
therefore be flawed, as it is based on partial data only.
Electricity generation technology costs
These assumptions focus on fossil fuelled electricity generation costs. They appear not to
consider that as prices rise, demand for fossil fuelled energy will fall, thus creating an
oversupply of fossil fuelled energy and a subsequent reduction in price – the Cobweb
Theorem of Economics.
Artificial support of fossil fuelled energy systems will have a similar impact to the energy
market – and it broad-ranging impacts to the economy generally as did the artificial support
for renewable energy has had.
I suggest the action as to the Carbon Tax should not encompass a RET review which has
been in place for 14 years and is working to reduce atmospheric pollution. Ultimately the
introduction of renewable energy will create a fall in energy prices as the cost of fuel will be
extinguished from the cost of generation.
1 Australian Government, Australian Government response to the Climate Change Authority’s Renewable
Energy Target Review: Final Report March 2013, 2.