WILD ANIMAL PREDICTING EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITIES:
MYTH OR REALITY?
Mr. Abel Ansporthy Mamboleo
Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management
St. Augustine University of Tanzania
P. O. Box 307, Mwanza, Tanzania
ABSTRACT
Earthquake prediction is a forecast that an earthquake of a specific magnitude will hit at a
particular area and particular time. Wild animals respond to impending earthquakes after
detecting geophysical stimuli. The paper reviewed various recorded instances of abnormal
animal behaviours and stimuli that trigger such behaviours. It summarized and analysed
secondary information from different literatures concerning abnormal animal behaviour
before earthquakes. Geophysical stimuli such as low sound frequency, ground tilting, seismic
waves, electromagnetic field fluctuations and changes in humidity normally trigger abnormal
behaviour in wild animals before an earthquake. Different species react differently to
earthquake stimuli. Wild animals become restless from a few minutes to as long as 24 hours
before earthquakes. For an earthquake to be detectable by animals it should be of at least 5
magnitudes on the Richter scale. However, wild animal predictions do not necessarily specify
parameters such as specific span of time, specific magnitude range and specific probability of
occurrence.
Keywords: Animal, Bio-Indicator, Earthquake, Prediction, Myth and Reality.
1.0
INTRODUCTION
Earthquake prediction is a forecast that an earthquake of a specific magnitude will occur at a
particular area and particular time. They occur regularly in Asian countries such as Japan and
China. Earthquake is a sudden, rapid shaking of the earth caused by the breaking and shifting
of rocks beneath the earth surface. It is the vibration of Earth produced by the rapid release
of energy. Energy released radiates in all directions from its source. About 95 percent of the
energy released by earthquakes originates in a few relatively narrow zones that wind around
the globe. It occurs within the interior of tectonic plates. Earthquakes originate at depths
ranging from 5 to nearly 700 kilometres (National Science Teachers Association, 2007).
Earthquakes are a sudden phenomenon. Seismologists estimate that there are 500,000
detectable quakes occurring in the world each year. Of those, 100,000 can be felt by humans,
and 100 cause severe damages. The largest earthquake ever recorded occurred in Chile in
1960, measuring a 9.5 on the Richter scale. The Indian Ocean earthquake of 26th December
2004 that triggered a devastating tsunami measured 9.0 on the Richter scale. The seismic
events are normally associated with countless deaths, injuries, displacement and destruction
of property. There are several events associated with the occurrence of earthquake which are
considered as myths. There is a Japanese story that associates the earthquake with catfish.
The story tells of an existence of huge mudfish living underground that causes earthquakes
whenever it moves (Seismological Bureau of Anhui, 1978). Other myths are about fog,
unusual cloud formations, lights, and unusual wildlife behaviours before earthquakes. Such
incidents have been reported regularly before major destructive earthquakes and believed to
be myths. Some scientists have declined to conduct researches on existing myths claiming
that they do not want to investigate lay observations but the ongoing scientific studies have
provided the world with significant information and therefore the legends and reports are
gradually disappearing.
Both wild and domestic animals display abnormal behaviour before seismic activities.
Abnormal wild animal behaviour prior to the onset of earthquakes is called Seismic
Anomalous Animal Behaviour or SAAB. Such type of abnormal behaviour has been widely
documented in different types of animals from all over the world in all ages. People interpret
the abnormal animal behaviour in terms of excitability and panic. For years oriental myths
have told stories of wild animals predicting earthquakes. These stories and myths are believed
to have a scientific basis. It is now a talking point of interest to popular scientific community
and also to some media houses but it has scarcely attracted serious scientific research
(Seismological Bureau of Anhui, 1978). In 1970s the State Seismological Bureau of China
began official documentation of wild animal abnormal behaviour prior to earthquake
activities. Four years later, when an earthquake appeared, the Bureau ascertained several
abnormal behaviours of wild animals before the Tangshan Earthquake in 1976. Thousands of
years ago, long before meteorology and weather forecasts, people relied on the behaviour of
wild animals to predict storms, volcano eruptions, and earthquakes. The contemporary
discussions in the literature on whether wild animals can predict earthquakes are still
confusing. There are those who take it seriously as a reality and others who still criticize the
idea and think of it as just a myth, they argue that an earthquake is totally unpredictable by
nature (Geller, 1991). However, it is scientifically established that wild animals have
sensitivity to earthquake geophysical signals. Wild animals have inherent rapid responses to
escape from dangers such as predators, fire and poachers. The response is associated with the
release of adrenaline hormones that improves effectiveness of sensory organs and
provisionally ceases pain sensation. People in earthquakes prone areas have seen wild
animals now and then behaving strangely prior to the onset of earthquakes (Tong, 1988). The
anomalous behaviours frequently observed are restlessness or excitability, incoordination,
vocal responses, termination of hibernation, and leaving their normal habitats. The
behaviours have been observed in various wild animal species of mammals, birds, reptiles,
fish, and insects.
2.0
LITERATURE REVIEW
The observed abnormal wild animal behaviours before an earthquake are simply the response
to different geophysical stimuli such as low sound frequency, ground tilting, seismic waves,
electromagnetic field fluctuation and changes in humidity (Tong, 1988 and Kirschvink,
2000). Animals are naturally more sensitive to their environment than humans are (Ikeya et
al., 1996). Their survival depends upon their ability to sense and react to any changes in the
environment (Kalmijn, 1974). Some geologists dismiss this theory totally or completely for
the reason of the Psychological Focusing Effect, which states that human being will only
remember the abnormal behaviours displayed by wild animals because of the destructive
earthquake activities, or any other major deadly natural causality (Tong, 1988). If not for the
earthquake, these strange behaviours in animals would not be kept in human being’s mind.
Other geologists insist that the wild animal prediction on earthquakes will be incomplete
unless the following parameters are properly and explicitly elaborated, the specific location
or area, specific span of time, specific magnitude range and specific probability of occurrence
(Tong, 1988).
The earliest reference about abnormal wildlife behaviours prior to a significant earthquake is
from Greece in 373 BC (Tong, 1988). Researchers continue to pursue the idea that wildlife
can predict earthquakes through detection of seismic P and S waves, tilt grounding, humidity,
electromagnetic field, low frequency sounds and electrical current (Kirschvink, 2000). Tong
(1988) argues that wild animals know the coming of earthquakes hours or minutes before
seismic events. However the animal knowledge depends on the distance between earthquake
epicentres and earthquakes foci. There are significant variations in ability, consistence and
accuracy for detecting earthquake signals among wild animals. Nevertheless, this is a result
of the difference in geographical, evolutionary, anatomical and physiological features. Wild
animals which are very close to earthquake focus will not have adequate time to detect the
seismic event.
There are earthquake prone countries in the world that are regularly encountered by
earthquakes (Kirschvink, 2000 and Ikeya et al., 1996). Consequently, Japan, Sri Lanka,
Thailand and China are some of those countries. They have been formally and informally
noticing and also recording several abnormal behaviours of wild animals before the onset of
earthquakes activities. Some people in those countries surely associate abnormal wild animal
behaviours with the prediction of earthquakes (Seismological Bureau of Anhui, 1978). Tong
(1988) is of the opinion that observations of abnormal wild animal behaviour prior to
earthquake activities have been reported around the world since the beginning of recorded
history. Chinese and Japanese have been recording these observations for many hundreds of
years and have made attempts to integrate these observations into an earthquake warning
system with some success. Over 6,000 years ago, the Chinese have used animals for
predicting seismic disasters and acknowledged their methods had worked properly. In
February, 1975, animal observers informed the government of China that snakes and worms
were behaving strangely as they were abandoning their underground burrows and coming out
into the open winter air. In response, the government evacuated all people and hours later, a
massive earthquake hit. The lives of thousands people were rescued because of wild animal
behaviour. The government of Sri Lanka was amazed to see no dead animal after tsunami.
Ideas about wild animals predicting earthquakes activities are geographically constrained and
localized to some countries of the world (Tong, 1988). For example, many African countries
have relatively few incidences and lower magnitude earthquakes as compared to Asian and
American countries. Due to regular occurrences of destructive activities in Asian countries,
abnormal wild animal behaviours before catastrophic earthquakes have been identified and
used for predictions of destructive earthquakes. Japanese and Chinese have been strictly
curious, attentive and knowledgeable in noting abnormal behaviours of wild animals prior to
earthquakes for many years for safety reasons. People are therefore doing it for rewards as
abnormal wild animal behaviour acts as a warning on the impending destructive earthquakes
activities. It is impractical for Africans to associate abnormal wild animal behaviour with
earthquakes because there are few and insignificant earthquakes in Africa.
Survival is an important ultimate undertaking and also the biggest challenge for wild animals
in the jungle (Ikeya et al., 1996). Only the fittest wild animals will get an opportunity to
perpetuate their genetic materials and survive in the jungle. Evading danger is the primal role
of wild animals in the jungle. It is this instinct that makes wild animals to have effective and
consolidated sensory modalities and communication techniques (Tong, 1988). The logic
behind having and application of sophisticated sensory techniques to predict deadly disasters
like earthquake is, likewise, a desire to survive (Grant and Holliday, 2010). Scientists concur
that wild animals have more than five sensory modalities which animals use to predict
earthquakes. For example. an animal’s eye is not only for vision perception of images but
also for electromagnetic light reception in some animals. Ears for detection of sound many
wild animals also include low sound frequency detection in bats, insects, dolphins and some
fish, and infrasound detection in whales, elephants, giraffes, rhinos and crocodiles (Zivkovic,
2012). Snakes and insects have infrared detectors. Several aquatic animals, including sharks
and eels, as well as the platypus, are capable of sensing changes in the electromagnetic fields
which can also be produced by earthquakes (Fraser-Smith at al., 1990). More and more
organisms from vertebrates to invertebrates are capable of sensing the direction, inclination
and intensity of the electromagnetic field (Varotsos et al., 1986). They are capable of
detecting vibrations of the substrate and use it to communicate with each other by shaking the
branches or stamping the ground. It is probably this sense that allowed many animals to
detect the onset of earthquakes through ground tilting (Zivkovic, 2012).
Wild animals have excellent senses of smell, sight, hearing and even the ability to sense
minute vibrations, sound and lights as such those senses help animals escape causalities such
as earthquakes and hurricanes. The finely tuned sensory perception of animals, in many
cases, makes them a better perceiver of environmental changes, even before humans notice
appreciable differences (Bhargava et al., 2009). Many wild animal species perceive and use
electromagnetic fields to navigate or to find prey. Some wild animals can detect humidity and
water level changes prior to onset of earthquakes. The changes can mostly be detected by
burrowing species of wildlife due to noticeable changes of moisture contents in soil air and
increase in soil water. Due to abnormal conditions animals escape the area searching for
suitable environment. It should be noted that all human and non human life deserves to
survive by natural selection. Detection of an earthquake by wildlife before the onset of actual
seismic event is innate kind of wild animal behaviours. It prepares an animal for escape to
amplify the chances of survival as instructed by natural selection. The animals which are
unable to detect the earthquakes precursors will equally be naturally selected by death.
However, there is scepticism in earthquake predictions by some scientists from United States
of America. However, this abnormal wild animal theory might in the very near future be
adopted and improved by man to save millions of lives and thousands of dollars worth of
property as wildlife can be used as biological indicators.
3.0
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The purpose of this article was to determine whether a positive relationship exists between
abnormal wild animal behaviour and earthquake activities. The scope of the article was
limited to reviewing the validity of the theory that wild animal behaviour can be used to
predict earthquake activities. The article reviewed various recorded instances of abnormal
animal behaviour, the cues that trigger such behaviour, the possible mechanism of evolution
of such behaviour and whether abnormal behaviour of wild animal can be used as a
biological indicator for earthquake prediction. It summarized and analysed secondary data
from different journals, books and other literatures concerning abnormal wild animal
behaviour before the onset of earthquakes and its possible usefulness in the forthcoming
earthquake activities. Both retrospective studies and laboratory based simulations were
reviewed. Through the retrospective strategies, interviews of different people who have
experienced earthquakes and observed unusual animal behaviour before seismic events were
carried out by different authors and organizations. The interviewees were farmers, peasant,
livestock keepers, livestock experts, ethologists, wildlife experts and seismologists.
Controlled laboratory experiments were also carried out to investigate sensory thresholds of
animals to test geophysical stimuli that may cause abnormal animal behaviour. The stimuli
tested on animals included sound with intensity and frequency outside the range of human
perception, variation in electromagnetic field, ground vibration or foreshocks, changes in
ground water and humidity and electromagnetic waves. Scientists in United States studied the
possible connection between animal behaviour and earthquakes. They project was situated in
California and it ran for three years. It involved about a thousand volunteers. The volunteers
watched animals and called the project every day to report on their actions. During the project
at least thirteen earthquakes were recorded. Some were bigger than others. The volunteers
observed enormous abnormal behaviour before seven of the earthquakes. Stanford Research
Institute conducted a five year project named Project Earthquake Watch obtained statistically
significant results indicating that reports of unusual animal behaviour increase prior to some
earthquakes. Chinese scientists conducted surveys of animal behaviour variations prior to
earthquakes. A team of scientists including biologists, geophysicists, chemists,
meteorologists, and biophysicists conducted a survey in the Tangshan area and in 400
communes in 48 counties around it after the 1976 earthquake. The scientists visited a number
of places that were hit by other destructive earthquakes and, through interviews and focused
group discussions with local people, collected useful information on over 2,000 cases of
unusual animal behaviour observed before an onset of earthquake. The majority of the reports
involved domestic and wild animals.
4.0
RESEARCH FINDINGS
Earliest observation of earthquakes date back 3000 years ago. Chinese scientists have
ascertained about 58 species of wild and domestic animals reacting strangely before
earthquake activities. Findings of the research conducted in 1996 in California households
indicate that out of the 200 randomly surveyed people, 15% had witnessed an animal
behaving oddly before an earthquake. Common observations included reports that the
animals appeared frightened, agitated, excited, disoriented, or were missing. Some 43% of
the observations were made by non-pet owners. The reports of odd animal behaviour were
noticed from several weeks to several seconds before the quake. Different species have
different ways for reacting to earthquake geophysical stimuli. For examples, hibernating
snakes abandon their burrows during the winter few days before earthquakes. This was
observed during Haicheng earthquake in 1975 (earthquake had 7.3 magnitude). Japanese
fishermen observed deep sea fish swimming near the surface of water. Normally, most
animals become restless. Abnormal animal behaviour may happen from few minutes to as
long as 24 hours before earthquakes. For destructive earthquakes to be able to trigger
abnormal wild animal behaviour they should have at least 5 magnitudes. Abnormal animal
behaviour prior to earthquake may not necessarily relate to earth quake predictions as it is
only a fraction of species of wild animal that show abnormal behaviour and also wild animals
can react to many things. The abnormal animal behaviour has been only observed from
macroscopic animals with little or no observation in microscopic wild animals. The
geophysical stimuli that animals can detect before the destructive earthquakes can be low
sound frequency, variation in electromagnetic field, ground vibration or foreshocks, changes
in ground water and humidity and electromagnetic waves.
Wildlife shows certain strange behaviours prior to earthquake. For examples, wild cats
normally scream mournfully. There is an exodus of rats and cats away from the area. Bats fly
and forage in winter months when they would normally be hibernating. Birds’ morning and
evening songs means fine weather, but night cries mean earthquakes. Big catfish stir deep
underground. Fish rise to the surface of the water. Fishing catches decrease near the coast.
Big schools of sardines swim upriver and colonies of sea crabs walk onshore (Xu, 2000).
Before the gigantic earthquake that devastated Sichuan province in China, odd swarms of
frogs were seen in the streets of cities in the area, and have subsequently been identified as
abnormal wild animal behaviours thought to precede earthquakes. Similar swarm of frog
appeared in Bakersfield, California for hours. Strange swarms of frogs also appeared before
the 6.9 Loma Prieta Earthquake in October, 1989.
Also, some people narrated incidents that happened when Thailand was struck by the
devastating Tsunami. Asian elephants moved to higher grounds, but the Asian elephants
owners did not bother and instead they attempted to restrain them. Some elephants managed
to escape for higher grounds with people following them. It was those people who survived
from the earthquake. Elephants are very sensitive to vibrations in the ground. Sometimes they
use vibrations for communication among family members. Elephants became aware of
something unusual before the earthquake hit. Some plants also can display abnormal
behaviours prior to earthquake activities. Plants flower out of season and vegetables almost
attain early maturity. The sensitive plant such as mimosa closes its leaves and bows its stems
before earthquakes. Prior to the Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923 rice plants matured earlier
than usual. The leaves of rice plant become pale yellow or white before earthquakes and
typhoons, producing striped horizontal yellow lines like a bar code. The unseasonal flowering
and yellowing of bamboo happened before the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake in China. In
additional, there is a concern that humans feel something unusual before large earthquakes.
Some myths suggest that some people might be capable of sensing earthquake precursors.
Some people feel peculiar fatigue or suffer from headaches or hysteria and have difficulty in
breathing before earthquakes. Some report nervous irritability, restlessness, nausea or a
sensation of dizziness and loss of balance. People in Japan and China who claim to be
especially sensitive, talk about body symptoms similar to those described in legends and
proverbs. Furthermore, the arguments of human being sensitivity prior to earthquakes have
also been discussed by Clarke (1996) some people felt headaches in Nicaragua prior to
earthquakes. There are
several theories that explain clearly how wild animals may perceive the destructive seismic
activities. Such theories rely on the following geophysical stimuli low sound frequency,
ground tilting, seismic waves, electromagnetic field fluctuation and changes in humidity and
underground water.
4.1
Electromagnetic Waves
Seismic waves are waves of energy that travel through the Earth. There are primary and
secondary genres of seismic waves. Primary waves or P waves are pressure waves that travel
faster from the epicentre with a speed of about 330 m/s in air, 1450 m/s in water and about
5000 m/s in granite. Secondary waves or S waves are shear waves that arrive from epicentre
after the fastest moving P waves during earthquake. S waves can travel only through solids
and they are slower than P waves. According to Pease and Orourke (1997) seismic P waves
travel faster through the crust than the associated S waves by about 2 to 4 kilometres per
second. The seismic escape response is an innate behaviour of wildlife, and that it can be
released after an animal has detected at least low-frequency vibration cause by seismic
waves. If a certain species of wild animal is adequately sensitive and capable of perceiving
vibrations associated with the coming of P waves, that sense could be a complete stimulus to
trigger inherent rapid response prior to the coming of the more damaging S waves. If the
earthquake focus is very close the shaking will start without appreciable warning of the wild
animal. Also, moderate and large earthquakes can cause shaking at distances of about 50 km.
Therefore, wild animals which live within 50 kilometers from earthquake focus will have 18
seconds for detection of P wave and escape the adverse effects of S wave. The detection of P
wave initiates the seismic escape response which can even be noticed by humans in forms of
sounds or actions (Kirschvink, 2000).
4.2
Low Sound Frequency
Animals’ hearing is normally better than that of humans. Some animals can detect lowfrequency sound from earthquakes aftershocks and before shocks. Earthquakes, volcanoes,
tidal waves and hurricanes are some of the more extreme sources of low sound frequency.
Earthquakes emit low frequency noise and some species of animals react to the sound
perceiving it as a harbinger to onset of earthquakes (Ising, et al., 1999). Most wild animals
are highly sensitivity to sounds both below and above the frequency range audible to human
being. It has been suggested that the abnormal wild animal behaviour exhibited before
earthquakes is due to their detection and consequent reaction to these ultrasounds emitted as
microseisms from infringement rocks, or other subtle sounds, vibrations, or movements of the
earth crust (Fraser-Smith et al., 1990). This has been particularly noticeable among the toads,
elephants, reptiles, rhinoceros, earthworms and dogs. Such sound can effectively be detected
and immediately responded by wildlife. Earthworms have been shown to move toward the
surface near roadways at low frequencies (5 Hz) of vehicles. It is common to elephants and
whales to use of infrasound for communication, as do rhinoceros, hippopotamus, giraffes and
okapi (Person-Waye et al., 2002). Alligators take advantage of the conductivity of water to
send low frequency sounds to attract a mate and migrating birds use turbulent airflow from
mountain range as navigation aids (Ising, et al., 1999). Elephant sometimes place its trunk
flat on the ground as one of its communication strategy. The action allows the wild animal to
detect seismic infrasound from far away and to use these low frequencies to communicate
across long distances.
4.3
Ground Tilting
Japan and China had noticeable ground tilt in the range of a few micro-radians prior to strong
earthquakes (Wyss, 1991). Bisdorff et al., (1996) described that normal human subjects
typically needed tilts of 68 (which is equivalent to 0.1 radian) in order to detect earthquakes.
Many wild animals have much better vestibular systems for tilt sensitization than do humans.
It is well developed in underground animals as compared to above ground ones (Lindenlaub
et al., 1995) (Kirschvink, 2000). Also, shallow soils are often subjected to compaction and
other non seismic deformation, which add noise to any signal wildlife can detect. Human
being can hardly detect ground tilting (Kirschvink, 2000). Chinese scientists focused their
research work on the behaviour of pigeons. The biological studies on pigeons concluded that
several tiny units exist between the tibia and fibula on a pigeon's leg. The units are linked to
the nerve center of the bird and are extremely sensitive to vibrations. Scientists determined
that prior to an earthquake of magnitude 4.0, which occurred in the area of the study, pigeons
that had normal connections flew away.
4.4
Electromagnetic Field Fluctuations
An electromagnetic field is a field which possesses magnetic and electrical properties and
surrounds objects with an electrical charge. Electromagnetic fields are present everywhere in
our environment but are invisible to the human eye. They are present on a basic level across
the universe in varying degrees of strength. The Earth, for example, is surrounded by an
electromagnetic field generated by the movement of electrons inside the Earth. The earth's
magnetic field causes a compass needle to orient in a North-South direction and is used by
birds and fish for navigation (Kirschvink, 1997) (Wiltschko, 1995). Electroreception is the
biological ability of animals to perceive natural electrical stimuli. Electroreception is used in
detecting objects and in animal communication. It is common in sharks, lungfishes,
amphibians, elephant fishes, birds and catfishes to mention few. Electroreceptive animals use
this sense to locate objects around them. It is important in the survival of the wildlife as an
animal do not rely only on vision for detection of impending dangers. Wildlife uses passive
electroreception to supplement its other senses when detecting impending earthquakes. In
sharks, sensing an electric dipole alone is sufficient to cause them to try to eat it. Earthquake
generates detectable electromagnetic before it happens. Some wild animals can detect
electrical signals prior to earthquakes. Kirschvink (1997) is of the opinion that earthquake
signals had been observed before, during, and after earthquakes. Due to variations in
electroreception among animals, it is not possible for some animals including human being to
detect earthquakes lights. The electroreception in terrestrial animals is relatively low as
compared to aquatic animals due to the high resistivity of air, feathers and hairs. There are
secondary effects of shock and the electrostatic action on feathers or hairs (Kirschvink,
2000). There are also similar variations of in aquatic animals, for example shark possesses
exceptional electrical sensitivity due to specialized organs used for communication and prey
location (Vanderwall, 1993).
4.5
Humidity and Underground Water Changes
Before an earthquake there are changes in quality and quantity of groundwater. The air is
normally enriched with the moisture contents which some animals could sense. The
recognized changes in groundwater level sometimes notify animals on the impending
earthquakes. Changes in groundwater displace air from the pore spaces, then moist air would
then escape upwards and increase the humidity of air in soil and burrows, and perhaps in the
surface boundary layer on top of the soil. The process of humidity reception in animals is
known as hygroreception. Spiders and insects possess hygrosensensitive sensilla that consist
of specialized receptor cells with hygroscopic hair-like structures that detect humidity and
temperature fluctuations (Sayeed and Benzer, 1996). Vertebrates appear to detect humidity
through their olfactory system. Desert rodents are able to detect seed caches buried in dry
sand based on variations of only a few percent of their water contents (Vanderwall, 1993).
Wild animal detection of impending earthquakes through hygroreception might therefore be
possible in arid environments. It is, however, difficult to see how this method would work in
rainy areas with uniformly high levels of humidity both in the soil and the air.
5
CONCLUSION
Humans use wildlife in various constructive development interventions. For example, the
police force of Tanzania uses dogs for detections of explosives, dead bodies, narcotics and
illegal entities. APOPO's HERORATS Project under Sokoine University of Agriculture,
Morogoro, Tanzania uses rats for landmine and tuberculosis detections. The US Navy uses
dolphin to detect mines in the oceans. The most successful wild animal earthquake prediction
is probably the Haicheng, China, earthquake that hit in February, 1975. Official reports said
snakes emerged from their winter burrows and froze to death, birds tried to carry eggs from
their nests, livestock broke their halters and fled, rodents behaved drunk, and police dogs
howled and misbehaved. Furthermore, the scientific community should not be surprised to
see wild animals predicting earthquake activities. The earthquake prone countries should just
seriously adopt the idea of wild animals perceiving earthquakes before it hits. This will
minimize the risk of earthquake activities and decrease its effects, it is important to predict
where and when a prospect, large earthquakes may hit. For instance, it would be important to
ascertain when such an earthquake will occur, where it will hit, and what will be the extent
and context of its destructiveness. Currently, seismological prediction of earthquake activities
is not very accurate as it relies much on statistical terms. A wild animal is a biological
indicator of destructive earthquake activities. It has been used formally and informally by
some earthquake prone countries like China and Japan to predict earthquake activities for
more than 6,000 years. However, scientists should be involve in active researches to ascertain
other critical reasons and modalities of strange wild animal behaviours prior to earthquakes.
Wild animals predict seismic activities by showing abnormal behaviours. Therefore one
should be knowledgeable about wild animal behaviours in order to make adequate association
of such behaviours with the coming seismic activities. It is advised to closely watch the
actions of wild animals for proper prediction of the earthquake activity. Since earthquake
prediction is a forecasting of an earthquake occurring at a particular area and particular time,
wildlife will only alert on the possibility of the happening of an earthquake without
specifying the magnitude as they are incapable of making earthquake prediction basing on
scientific parameters and statistics such as specific span of time, specific magnitude range
and specific probability of earthquake occurrence. It is only the earthquake of at least 5
magnitudes that can be detachable by wild animals. There are certain species of wild animals
that can accurately and consistently detect the geophysical stimuli and predict the earthquakes
while some cannot. The author of this paper has used dozens of detailed accounts of unusual
wild animal behaviour prior to earthquakes through reviewing various literatures. The
undependable evidence presented in this paper does not necessarily imply the existence of
earthquake prediction abilities in wild animals as the author relied mostly on the secondary
information rather than actual observations. Abnormal wild behaviour is difficult to define,
and determining if there is a characteristic behaviour is not an easy task due to the fact that
wild animal reacts to different types of stimuli. Some of the mysterious behaviour discussed
in this paper may ultimately be explainable in terms of reactions to ordinary stimuli. People
in earthquake prone countries may sometimes exaggerate wild animal's abilities to predict
earthquake activities. The author would therefore recommend further biological and
geological researches into the underlying theory of abnormal animal behaviour as a result of
impending earthquake activities.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I am grateful for comments received from Professor Fr. James Spillane and Mr. Daniel L.
Massawe. I would like to thank Saint Augustine University of Tanzania (SAUT) for
financially supporting the publication of this article. To everyone at the Department of
Tourism and Hospitality Management of SAUT who were friendly and welcoming and made
me feel at ease when preparing this article. I especially like to thank Ms. Mida Abel Msamba,
without her this article would not have been possible. She is a fountain of advice, guidance
and I value her friendship deeply. I would also like to thank Dr. Steve Duffy for his patience,
contribution and approachability. Finally, to Ms. Delphine Kessy without her support,
encouragement and continuous motivation this article would not have been possible, thank
you.
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