3/17/2010 GROUP SEVEN TIM HORTONS FRANCHISE BUSINESS PLAN MBA 841 | Iman El Meniawi, Joey Tang, Sugantha Nathaniel & Trenna Brusky Contents 1.0 Executive Summary ..............................................................................................................................................5 2.0 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................................7 2.1. The Coffee Industry ..........................................................................................................................................7 2.2 Tim Hortons Organization .................................................................................................................................7 2.2.1 Mission Statement ..........................................................................................................................................7 2.2.2 Organizational Values ....................................................................................................................................8 2.2 Saskatoon: Community Overview .....................................................................................................................8 3.0 Marketing Plan ......................................................................................................................................................9 3.1 Market Analysis: ................................................................................................................................................9 3.1.1 Competitor Overview: .....................................................................................................................................9 3.1.2 Customer Analysis .......................................................................................................................................11 3.2 Product Offerings ............................................................................................................................................11 3.3 Price ................................................................................................................................................................12 3.4 Place ...............................................................................................................................................................13 3.4.1 Location Selection ........................................................................................................................................13 3.4.2 Store Layout .................................................................................................................................................14 3.5 Promotion ........................................................................................................................................................14 4.0 Operation’s Plan ..................................................................................................................................................15 4.1 Location...........................................................................................................................................................15 4.2 Store Operation ...............................................................................................................................................17 4.3 Business Hours ...............................................................................................................................................18 4.4 Business Activities ..........................................................................................................................................18 4.4.1 Daily Activities ..............................................................................................................................................18 4.4.2 Weekly activities ...........................................................................................................................................19 2 4.4.3 Monthly Activities..........................................................................................................................................19 4.5 Suppliers and Quality Control ..........................................................................................................................19 5.0 Human Resources ..............................................................................................................................................19 5.1 Organization Structure ....................................................................................................................................19 5.2 Job Descriptions..............................................................................................................................................20 5.2.1 Store Manager..............................................................................................................................................20 5.2.2 Assistant Manager........................................................................................................................................21 5.2.3 Team Supervisor ..........................................................................................................................................21 5.2.4 Storefront Employee.....................................................................................................................................21 5.2.5 Production ....................................................................................................................................................21 5.3 Human Resources Strategy ............................................................................................................................22 5.3.1 Human Resource Needs: Five Year Forecast ..............................................................................................22 5.4 Employee Recruiting and Motivation ...............................................................................................................23 5.5 Human Resources Training.............................................................................................................................24 5.5.1 Initial Training Requirements ........................................................................................................................24 5.5.2 Ongoing Training Requirements...................................................................................................................24 5.6 Human Resources Costs ................................................................................................................................25 6.0 Financial Plan......................................................................................................................................................25 6.1 Marketing, Operational and Human Resource Considerations .......................................................................25 6.1.1 Estimated Revenues ....................................................................................................................................26 6.1.2 Cost of Goods Sold ......................................................................................................................................26 6.1.3 Operating Expenses .....................................................................................................................................27 6.1.4 Working Capital Estimates ...........................................................................................................................27 6.1.5 Capital Budget and Depreciation ..................................................................................................................28 6.2 Financing Budget ..........................................................................................................................................28 3 6.3 Debt Amortization Schedules ........................................................................................................................29 6.4 Corporate Income Taxes ...............................................................................................................................29 6.5 Economic Forecast........................................................................................................................................30 6.6 Dividend Policy................................................................................................................................................30 6.7 Ratio Analysis .................................................................................................................................................30 6.9 Financial & Investment Analysis ......................................................................................................................32 6.9 Risk Analysis ...................................................................................................................................................32 7.0 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................................................35 8.0 Appendix .............................................................................................................................................................36 Appendix One: Human Resource needs and scheduling during weekdays & weekends .....................................36 Appendix Two: Income Statement ........................................................................................................................38 Appendix Three: Balanced Sheet ..........................................................................................................................38 Appendix Four: Statement of Cash Flow ...............................................................................................................39 4 1.0 Executive Summary The city of Saskatoon has been experiencing an economic and residential growth for the past decade. This growth has led to the expansion of many neighborhoods including the northeast end of Saskatoon, where this investment group has identified an opportunity for establishing a Tim Hortons Franchise. The new franchise will be located on Attridge Drive and will serve the following neighborhoods: Silverspring, Evergreen, University Heights, Willowgrove, Erindale, Arbor Creek, and Forest Grove. This business plan demonstrates the market need for the new Tim Hortons and highlights the goals and objectives of the franchise. Tim Hortons is a quick service restaurant specializing in freshly brewed coffee, doughnuts, and home-style lunches. Marketing analysis show that although Tim Hortons faces aggressive competition from various quick service restaurants in Saskatoon, competition is relatively low in the Northeast end of the city, where it is limited to Macdonald’s, Dairy Queen, and Reggie’s. The absence of specialty coffee shops in the area is a competitive advantage for the franchise. The key success factor for the new Tim Hortons is its marketing mix; Tim Hortons strong brand equity, specialty coffee blends, competitive prices, and location guarantee its success. The Franchise will be managed by its experienced owners who have 65 years of combined food industry experience and are the owners of two other non competing franchises. The management team will execute the Tim Hortons principles and standards of operations on a daily basis and will be supported by formal training from the TDL group. Tim Hortons is committed to offering top quality, always fresh and great service. Product and service quality will be monitored through regular on site inspections by TDL’s district Manager. Tim Hortons corporate will supply the franchise with all inventories and will guarantee their timely receiving. Staffing plan for the new Tim Hortons has been developed to ensure that staffing levels are in line with demand and that staff are capable of maintaining the required high levels of service and product quality. To ensure management remains in contact with the needs of the consumer, the organizational structure of the Attridge franchise is kept flat with three levels of management and supervisors who work directly with the part-time staff and the customers. The new Tim Hortons is financially attractive with a return on investment of 14.6%. The total start up cost for the restaurant is $535,000 of which 50% is owners’ equity and the rest is long term liability. The franchise is expected to generate revenue of $1,369,251 in its first year of operation and is projected to maintain a steady revenue growth in line with inflation rate. 5 The marketing mix of the new Tim Hortons franchise along with its experienced management team guarantees its success. According to this business plan the restaurant will generate a positive net income of $366,263 in its first year and will sustain profitability for the projected five years period. 6 2.0 Introduction 2.1. The Coffee Industry Coffee is the first choice of beverage in Canada. 63% of Canadians consume coffee on a daily basis while 81% consume it occasionally. Coffee is no more a morning beverage with the average Canadian drinking 2 to 3 cups of coffee a day. Over the last 10 years there has been an increase in consumption of coffee in-transit and in work places. Quick service restaurant chains intend on targeting this growing market of on-the-go coffee consumers. In response to fierce competition in the industry, quick service restaurant chains have become creative in their pricing strategy, location selection, and marketing schemes. 2.2 Tim Hortons Organization Tim Hortons started as a coffee shop, selling donuts and coffee in Hamilton, Ontario. Over the years the company expanded into a multi-million dollar franchise and today Tim Hortons stands as Canada's largest quick service restaurant business. The company is known for consistency, high quality products, and excellent service. Tim Hortons has also become an iconic brand in Canada due to innovative marketing campaigns that have increased sales and created extreme customer loyalty. The last ten-years have been a period of tremendous growth for Tim Hortons. The company has aggressively expanded in both the Canadian and Unites States markets, and has increased its product line to include meals, baked products, and blended drinks. Tim Hortons competitive low prices are known to build its customer base and increase its presence in the market. Additionally, the company is known for its convenient locations in areas of prominent visibility and growth. Tim Hortons humanitarian efforts across the nation have shown that it is a socially responsible brand that gives back to the community. The company’s excellent marketing strategies along with its customer base ensure its solid position in the market in the years to come. 2.2.1 Mission Statement Tim Hortons mission is to be the industry leader through commitment to excellence in people, product quality, value, cleanliness, customer service, and community leadership. 7 2.2.2 Organizational Values Tim Hortons and its franchises are committed to living the following core organizational values: We are 'Can Do’: Our success comes from continued grow and the complete satisfaction of our customers. To do this are responsive, hands on, and pay attention to detail We Seek Opportunities: Tim Hortons is guided by an entrepreneurial spirit focused on determination and passion. This gives us both the power to succeed and allows us to continually learn and improve. We Achieve Excellence: We believe in excellence in everything we do. We constantly strive to be the best, proudly facing changes and challenges head on. We are Fair and Ethical: We deal with stakeholders honestly and treat them with the utmost respect, fairness, compassion and loyalty. We are an Amazing Team: We are a strong team, relying on support and open communication from each other. We are humble, hardworking, friendly, caring and passionate about our business. 2.2 Saskatoon: Community Overview The investor group composed of Iman El Meniawi, Joey Tang, Sugantha Nathaniel and Trenna Brusky has been selected to open a new Tim Hortons franchise in the University Heights neighborhood of Saskatoon. This selection demonstrates the group has the necessary entrepreneurial drive, management skills, financial means and dedication required for success in today's competitive market. The chosen location for the new franchise is a new commercial development off Attridge Drive. Attridge Drive is the major roadway connecting the surrounding northeast neighborhoods to the Circle Drive freeway, city centre, and industrial areas. Market Research indicates Saskatoon’s northeast is an un-served market with significant growth potential. This is due to numerous reasons: The northeast is one of the fastest growing communities in Saskatoon with three newly developing neighborhoods (University Heights, Willow Grove, and Evergreen) Saskatoon is the largest city in the province and the population is booming1 “Saskatoon’s population booms,” CBC News, July 28, 2009, http://www.cbc.ca/canada/saskatchewan/story/2009/07/28/sask-saskatoon-populationgrowth.html 1 8 According to the Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority (SREDA) Saskatoon’s economy is expected to rebound in 2010 It is expected that the Attridge location franchise will be successful and will not cannibalize the sales of other Tim Hortons restaurants in Saskatoon. 3.0 Marketing Plan Tim Hortons has an effective marketing strategy that portrays the brand as a national identity. It incorporates an atmosphere of a rural small town Canadian restaurant that draws a customer inside its doors. Additionally, the success stories of employees rising from unloading trucks to management creates a fond image in the minds of the customers. The restaurant’s mission is to deliver superior quality products and services to its customers and community. Its vision is to be a quality leader in its industry. 3.1 Market Analysis: 3.1.1 Competitor Overview: Tim Hortons faces high levels of competition in the quick service restaurant business. Its competitors consist of a wide spectrum of coffee chains featuring either lower prices or higher quality. In Saskatoon’s northeast, competition is comparatively low when evaluated to other Tim Hortons locations. The following chart and Figure One provide an overview of the direct competitors for this franchise location. Quick Service Restaurant Chain Features McDonald's They offer free coffee 24 hours but do not offer blended coffee or the quality that Tim Hortons provides its customers. Robins Donuts They do not offer the quality and the element of freshness in their baked goods provided by Tim Hortons. They are not a pressing competitive threat to Tim Hortons. Reggie’s They are known for their bagels, sandwiches and paninis. They provide competition during breakfast and lunch hours. 9 Dairy Queen They provide a broader selection for meals and treats on their menu in comparison to Tim Hortons. The nutritional value in Tim Hortons products is higher in comparison to Dairy Queen. Figure One: Aerial view of the site location for the new Attridge Drive Tim Hortons franchise The Attridge Drive location will also face competition from coffee chains not located near this new location, but that provide to the needs of the target customers in Saskatoon’s northeast. Starbucks provides higher quality coffee along with specialty custom made coffee for its customers, but at increased prices and relatively slower service in comparison to Tim Hortons. Local coffee houses such as the Broadway Roastery, Sola and Soulieo offer a more relaxed environment for customers to enjoy their coffee. They serve a specific niche market in the community and might not necessarily target the Tim Hortons loyalists. 10 3.1.2 Customer Analysis The Tim Hortons target market consists of two segments: the loyalists and the customers who are on-the-go. Customers who are on-the-go, those on the way to work or on the way to school, predominates the drive through market. Most of the time these customers are looking for the nearest coffee to their work place and can be quite price sensitive. The possibility of these customers switching brands is high but they will seek Tim Hortons due to convenience. The Tim Hortons loyalists have an element of patriotism to the Small Town Hockey Canadian Culture. The possibility of them switching costs is low and they seek Tim Hortons because it’s a Canadian symbol. The “RRRoLL up the Rim” campaign is a seasonal ritual that increases their intake of coffee and builds on their loyalty to the brand. These customers have launched blogs online such as “Every cup tells a story” to share their Tim Hortons story to other loyalists. When a Tim Hortons customer sends mail to the company inquiring on nutritional facts, customer service is known to reply back immediately with the required answers offering better menu options to their customers. A Tim Hortons customer is always content with the good quality coffee, the excellent customer service, and the reasonable price. The Attridge location selected for the launch of a Tim Hortons outlet will bring in customers from neighborhoods surrounding the area. The community is filled with affluent families earning an above average income of approximately $83,000. There is a high number of working individuals in the community who would require a coffee on their way to work or on their way back home from work. Additionally, Saskatoon’s northeast has three developing neighborhoods offering potential increases in patronage. The selected location is close to two growing high schools, St. Joesph's and Centennial Collegiate that may attract students during their lunch hours and after school hours. The Sasktel Sports center will bring in customers to Tim Hortons after athletic events are held. The Alice Turner Public Library, Willowgrove Linear Park, and the Saskatoon Forestry Park & Zoo are walking distance from the Tim Hortons thus increasing the number of its potential customers. These customers are aware of the Tim Hortons brand along with its consistency hence would be more eager to flock into a familiar setting. 3.2 Product Offerings Tim Hortons started in the 60s with just 2 products, coffees and donuts. Today it has evolved into a quick service restaurant chain that offers sandwiches, bagels, muffins, juice, wraps, rolls and blended coffee. It intends on providing a fresh home-style breakfast or lunch to its customers. Tim Hortons started the sales of coffee cans to bring its brand to its customers’ home. Other merchandise products include coffee mugs, shirts, caps etc. 11 3.3 Price Tim Hortons provides good quality products at a competitive price. The food and beverage prices are lower than competitors and Tim Hortons is known by consumers to produce consistent quality. Nothing on its menu is over $9, reflecting to its customers that it can deliver fresh products at a good value. All menu prices are set by the TDL Group or Tim Hortons corporate and franchises are expected to follow this pricing model. The working customers from Saskatoon’s northeast neighborhoods will be less price sensitive while the students in this area will be seen to be more price sensitive. Tim Hortons’ pricing strategy is effective in catering to the needs of both these types of customers. Tables One and Two are projections of the number of unit sales and total revenue expected throughout the week and on weekends. The total estimated revenue generated annually is $2,201,121, indicating that the brands pricing strategy has been effective for them. We determine the average sale per transaction by calculating the price of an average customer purchase combination. During peak- breakfast hours and non-peak hours, let say 75% of customers get a larger coffee, and the other 25% of customer order a combination of a large coffee and a choice of snacks, (which includes donuts, muffins, bagels and choice of breakfast sandwich). According to the menu provided from Cumberland and 8th street stores in Saskatoon, a large coffee costs $1.46 and the average of a choice of food products is $1.60. The combination will cost $3.06 in sum. We estimate the average sale of transaction is $1.86 in peak breakfast hours and non-peak hours for our revenue calculation. For peak-lunch hours, we assume 50% of customers loyal to coffee only and the other 50% will order a lunch combo. The price of lunch combos ranges from $4.35 to $7.15. We take the average of each lunch combos, which is $5.83. If half people order a large coffee and half people order lunch combo during lunch hours, we estimate $3.65 will be our average sales of transaction during peak lunch hour. Table One: The number of units sold, sales and revenue on weekdays: 12 year 1 Weekdays # Trans/hr Hours/day Avg price/trans Total Sales per day Peak-Breakfast 150 3.5 $ Peak-Lunch 150 2.5 $ 75 11 $ Non-Peak Total per Day 1725 1.86 $ 3.65 $ 1.86 $ 1,368.75 $ 3,879.75 $ 1,008,735.00 17 Total Revenue 976.50 1,534.50 Table Two: The number of units sold, sales and revenue on weekends year 1 Weekends # Trans/hr Hours/day Avg price/trans Total Sales per day Peak-Breakfast 150 3 $ Peak-Lunch 150 2 $ 75 11 $ Non-Peak Total per Day 1575 16 1.86 $ 3.65 $ 1.86 $ $ 837.00 1,095.00 1,534.50 3,466.50 $ 360,516.00 Total Revenue 3.4 Place 3.4.1 Location Selection Tim Hortons are located in a place of prominent visibility and caters to the “on-the-go” customer. It has regular stand alone stores along with outlets in shopping malls, highway outlets, universities and hospitals. The drive-thru service provides quick and efficient service to the drive through market. A city needs to think carefully before locating a Tim Hortons as it can affect the flow of traffic. At the moment there are 17 other Tim Hortons outlets in Saskatoon. University Height, off Attridge Drive, is a good location for a coffee chain in Saskatoon as the competition in this area is limited and there is a good-sized market in need of the product. The new franchise location is surrounded by 6 established neighborhoods (Erindale, Arbor Creek, Sutherland, Forest Grove, Silverspring and Willowgrove) and a new neighborhood Evergreen scheduled to start development this year. With the increase in residential and commercial development in these areas there is definite potential for increased customers and growth in sales for the launch of a Tim Hortons in this area. The St. Josephs High School, Centennial College, Sasktel Sports Center, Willowgrove Linear park, Alice Turner Public Library and Saskatoon Forestry Park & Zoo around this locality will flock in more customers. The location is such that it will not cannibalize sales from other brand outlets but will capture sales from an un-served market. University Heights is 13 perfect for visibility and convenience to attract potential customers. As the place looks extremely promising there is a high possibility that the brand would reach its maximum capacity to serve its customers fairly quickly. 3.4.2 Store Layout Ninety five percent of Tim Hortons’ stores are franchised owned, and there are over 28000 and 5000 stores in Canada and the United States respectively. The layout is styled in similar pattern to provide customers with a familiar and consistent experience regardless of the province or country of operation. The chairs are designed to make the customer feel comfortable, but only for a short time, to ensure availability for the next customer. Each Tim Hortons location prominently features large colorful signs for new products that catch the eye of customer as they stand in line for their purchase. The menu boards are well lit with appropriate use of colors to make it easy for the customer to scan through before his purchase. Merchandise products such as coffee cans, mugs, shirts, caps etc. are placed near the customer line up for effective visibility and to facilitate purchase. Large screens displaying images of the Children's Foundation makes the customer aware of the different social activities Tim Hortons is involved with to support the community. 3.5 Promotion Tim Hortons is known for its excellent promotion campaigns that increase sales and build customer loyalty. The brand is based on a traditional Canadian hockey success story of a small town man that signed by the Toronto Maple Leafs. This automatically aligns the Tim Hortons brand to Canadian hockey culture and elicits nationalistic feelings in loyal consumers. The company is involved in community enhancement programs such as sponsorships, sports programs, and clean up events portraying it as a socially responsible brand. It is specifically known for its Children's Program that organizes yearly camping events for children. Tim Hortons customers sense that with each coffee they purchasing they are giving an adventurous experience for these children. On January 18th 2010, Tim Hortons started to collect funds in coin boxes in outlets across Canada to help the people in Haiti after the earthquake; By February 1st the nickels and quarters accumulated to $700,000. The “RRRoLL up the Rim” campaign every season creates a buzz and is considered a ritual among the Tim Hortons loyalists. Exciting prizes ranging from cars to cash is offered to customers hence increasing sales and increases its target market. Its “20 minute Commitment” on coffee pots with each pot stating the time of preparation written on it, ensures that the coffee is fresh and no coffee is served after 20 minutes. This campaign established Tim Hortons as a freshly baked goods restaurant chain with quick service. The advertising is taken care of by Tim 14 Hortons and not the franchisee thus giving the brand control to implement what it feels appropriate for this specific Attridge Drive location. To support corporate Tim Hortons advertising, the franchisee pays a monthly advertising levy of 4% of gross sales. Table Three highlights the estimated advertising costs that will accompany the projected increases in revenues for the next five years. Table Three: Estimated advertising costs per year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 $54,770 $55,865 $80,228 $81,832 $83,469 4.0 Operation’s Plan 4.1 Location Tim Hortons is a quick service restaurant chain specializing in freshly brewed coffee, doughnuts, and home-style lunches. The new Tim Hortons franchise will be located on Attridge Drive in the growing northeast end of Saskatoon. This location will serve the following neighborhoods: Silverspring, Evergreen, University Heights, Willowgrove, Erindale, Arbor Creek, and Forest Grove. As indicated by Figure Two, the combined size of these neighborhoods is significant and provides a large market of potential consumers. Figure Two: Northeast Saskatoon neighborhoods and scope of franchise coverage. 15 Currently, this area does not have any coffee shops, and the closest one, Robins Donuts, is located on Central Avenue. Northeast residents have above average income and are expected to be regular customers for the new Tim Hortons. Also, Centennial Collegiate, Saint Joseph’s high school, and the soccer centre are a two minutes walking distance from the suggested location, so students and soccer centre patrons are seen as potential customers. The area will capture numbers of industrial areas of Sutherland and University areas. The new franchise will be located in the developing University Heights neighborhood, and will be included in Phase One of a new business development off Attridge Drive (refer to Figure Three). This location will capture neighborhood commuter traffic and also customers that from other areas that utilize the numerous facilities outlined above. Figure Three: Proposed business development in University Heights and future Tim Hortons franchise location 16 4.2 Store Operation The four owners of the store will execute the Tim Hortons’ principles and standards of operations on a daily basis and will be supported by formal training from the TDL group. The store will operate as a quick service restaurant, where customers will make orders at the cashier and then pick them up from another station within three minutes. Tim Hortons is committed to offering top quality, always fresh and great service. Product and service quality will be monitored through regular on site inspections by TDL’s district Manager. Continuous on the job coaching will be offered to all employees on a regular basis and the store will be functioning under food government regulations. 17 4.3 Business Hours Tim Hortons will open from 6:00 am to 11:00 pm on weekdays and 6:00 am to 10:00 pm on weekends. These business hours will put the store in a competitive position with other stores in the neighborhood. Dairy Queen opens daily till 11 pm and MacDonald’s is open 24 hours. The franchise will cater to the needs of a wide range of customers; Early bird customers grabbing a coffee or breakfast on their way to work; soccer centre and school patrons; and neighborhood’s residents going out for a quick lunch, snack or coffee all throughout the day. 4.4 Business Activities 4.4.1 Daily Activities The following activities and structure reflects a typical operational day at the Attridge Drive franchise: Opening: Time: half hour before opening Crew: 1 manager/owner and two employees Responsibility: Opening the store, brewing coffee, baking morning items, and receiving deliveries Day Shift: Time: Throughout the day Crew: The manager, assistant manager, shift supervisor, and shift employees Responsibility: Two employees will be responsible for taking orders and processing payments, two will be responsible for preparing beverages, two for food preparation, and cleaning responsibility will be rotated among all store front employees. Closing shift: Time: 11 pm and will take about half hour. Crew: a shift supervisor, and one employee. Responsibility: Preparing cash for bank deposits, cleaning machines and tools, restocking inventory for the next morning, and filling in inventory ordering forms, cleaning and talking out garbage. 18 4.4.2 Weekly activities Managers will order napkins, culinary, and restock on coffee and other merchandise and prepare a sales revenue report to monitor store sales. 4.4.3 Monthly Activities Managers will perform the following duties: Pay monthly bills and royalty fees Prepare a monthly income statement. Compare actual budget to planned one and monitor variances. 4.5 Suppliers and Quality Control TDL group will supply the franchise with all inventories including coffee, cups, lids, napkins, dry goods, frozen dough, and Tim Hortons’ merchandise. Quality and timely receiving of inventories is ensured through the franchise agreement with Tim Hortons; all Tim Hortons production facilities supplying frozen dough are approved HACCP facilities. 5.0 Human Resources 5.1 Organization Structure Iman El Meniawi, Joey Tang, Sugantha Nathaniel and Trenna Brusky are the owners and primary equity investors in the Attridge Tim Hortons franchise operation. This ownership group brings considerable knowledge and experience as they have over 65 years of combined food industry experience, and are the owners of two other noncompeting food franchises in smaller Saskatchewan centers. As owners they will be responsible for establishing the stores vision and operational goals, will supervise the store and monitor its performance and productivity. The day-to-day operational will be the responsibilities of the Store and Assistant Manager, positions that will be held by members the ownership group. This group recognizes that this franchise will require dedication, direct supervision, long hour and hands-on labor. 19 In addition to the ownership team, the franchise will receive corporate support from TDL Group Corp. TDL is a group of professionals that works in partnership with storeowners to ensure operations are efficient and experience optimal growth levels. This group is knowledgeable in all facets of the Tim Hortons system and is available on an ongoing basis for operational support and guidance. The direct connection to TDL is through the regional District Manager that will provide knowledge, conduct regular site visits and monitor the operation to ensure the corporate standards of product quality, value, cleanliness and customer service are met. The organizational structure of the Attridge franchise is flat (refer to Figure 4). There are three levels of management and supervisors that work directly with the part-time staff and the customers. Tim Hortons believes this is critical for the maintenance of high quality service and products, and ensures management remains in contact with the needs of the consumer. Figure Four: Attridge Drive Tim Hortons organizational chart TDL Store Manager Assistant Manager Production (bakery) Shift Supervisor Storefront Employee 5.2 Job Descriptions The staff at the Attridge Tim Hortons will consist of the following: 5.2.1 Store Manager Experienced in managing a food service operation Knowledgeable and focused on accomplishing the long-term vision of the store owners Involved in employee recruitment, training and team coaching to achieve and maintain high standards of operations (i.e. superior product, clean store environment, development of loyal clientele) 20 Skilled at managing employees and promoting a team based work environment Plans and executes methods to increase sales and achieved targeted goals 5.2.2 Assistant Manager Knowledgeable in the food service industry Supports the Store Manager and Owners in the day-to-day operations of the store Great trainer and motivator focused on building a successful work team relationship 5.2.3 Team Supervisor Focused on being a mentor and team captain Communicates effectively with the management team Heavily involved in promoting the team focus, and acts as the team leader for their shift Displays outstanding customer service Completes scheduling of storefront employees and develops the duty roster 5.2.4 Storefront Employee Directly involved with customer service and the production of food and beverages Deals directly with the customer Performs all tasks to ensure services and quality standards are maintained Fulfills orders and prepares food and beverages Performs regular cleaning activities as listed by the duty roster schedule (i.e. clearing tables, washing dishes, restroom and store cleaning and supply maintenance) Follows proper food handling and hygienic procedures 5.2.5 Production Production and preparation of baked goods Communicates with Management and Storefront staff to ensure availability of baked goods Refills store-front displays with fresh products Follows proper food handling and hygienic procedures Tim Hortons is company of team players that believes its greatest strength is the diversity of its employees. Each employee has a variety of backgrounds, experiences and personalities and these differences make Tim Hortons 21 team a positive and inclusive environment. This focus delves deeper into our belief in creating a supportive team based work environment. We believe this approach provides employees with the support required for job satisfaction, quality products and the excellent customer service Tim Hortons is known for. 5.3 Human Resources Strategy 5.3.1 Human Resource Needs: Five Year Forecast Due to the popularity of the Tim Hortons franchise, the Attridge store is expected to have high levels of traffic right from its opening. In the development of the Human Resources Strategy the expected number of sales and the peak hours of operation were estimated for this location (Refer to Appendix One). Management will assess the accuracy of these estimates against the actual customer visits and traffic levels to ensure staffing levels are inline with demand and able to maintain the required high levels of service and product quality. General estimates for employee scheduling is as follows: Table Four: Staff during peak and non-peak hours Peak Hours Non-Peak Hours Drive Thru: 2 employees (till and beverage Drive Thru: 2 employees (till and beverage preparation) preparation) Food: 1-2 employees Food: 1 employee Till One: 2 employees (till and beverage preparation) Till One: 2 employees (till and beverage preparation) Till Two: 2 employees (till and beverage preparation) 1-2 production employees in the kitchen (baking is 1-2 production employees in the kitchen area completed at 6:00 pm daily) **Note that unless specified the ‘employees’ are storefront employees, supervisors or managers Over the next five years, the Attridge Tim Hortons is projected to have growth in traffic and sales volumes. This is due to increases in both commercial and residential developments in the surrounding neighborhoods causing an expanded customer base. The potential increase in demand will be matched with growth in the number of part-time 22 Storefront employees as the location moves towards capacity levels. Estimates calculated based on store visits to fully operational Tim Hortons in Saskatoon indicate that at as customers increase approximately 19 new storefront and 7 new production shifts (4hrs) will need to be added and filled each week. This increase in employees will support the new customer levels expected in 2012. Table Five: Tim Hortons Human Resource needs Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Number Full-Time Store Manager 1 1 1 1 1 Employees Assistant Manager 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 Production 28 28 35 35 35 Storefront 145 145 164 164 164 Shift Supervisors (full and part-time) Number of PartTime Shifts / Week (4Hrs) 5.4 Employee Recruiting and Motivation According the Provincial Government, Saskatchewan has had the lowest unemployment rate in Canada for the last nine months.2 Due to the opportunities available for workers in the province, the Attridge franchise will implement numerous strategies to increase motivation and attract new employees. These strategies are as follows: Competitive salaries Health and dental benefits for qualifying employee Opportunities for advancement through training programs An incentive and recognition program focused on acknowledging employees with outstanding customer service, operational standards and teamwork. This system is based on the ‘Tim-Points’ and other service awards. “Saskatchewan’s unemployment rate remains lowest in Canada,” Government of Saskatchewan, March 12, 2010, http://www.gov.sk.ca/news?newsId=41f401f4-1a77-4502-a079-71492c985fbf 2 23 Scholarship opportunities Opportunities for community involvement through various programs including Camp Day, Smile Cookies to fund local charities, and other events that give back to the community Free uniforms 5.5 Human Resources Training 5.5.1 Initial Training Requirements Tim Hortons has developed a comprehensive training program for new franchise owners. This program was designed to provide initial and ongoing operational and marketing support, and is focused on maintaining Tim Hortons' leadership as Canada’s foremost coffee and baked goods chain. The ownership team will undergo a 7-8 week corporate training program to understand the operational facets of the Tim Hortons restaurant. This program is held at the National Training Centre in Oakville, Ontario that includes classrooms and a fully operational store. This course provides trainees with hands-on experience preparing the Tim Hortons product line, and emphasizes proper food handling and hygienic procedures, employee relations, equipment maintenance and in-store security systems. The corporate operations’ staff will also assist with the opening of the Attridge franchise. This staff will remain on location for up to 17 days to help hire an train staff, clean and prepare the restaurant for opening, and provide general assistance and guidance with operations. Tim Hortons also loans franchisees Operation Manuals that contain recipes, formulations, operating procedure, equipment maintenance guidelines, record keeping systems and general reference materials for guidance in the proper manner of operating a Tim Hortons restaurant. 5.5.2 Ongoing Training Requirements Tim Hortons Head Office offers a wide range of operation-focused courses and an annual symposium for management staff. These programs will provide the Attridge management team with the opportunity to develop the skills required to make continual improvements at the restaurant. 24 The Team Supervisor and Assistant Manager will complete ongoing and new employee training at the Attridge location. Employee training will be conducted on the job and focus on safe food handling, proper personal hygiene, customer service, and food/beverage preparation. The Store Manager will monitor training to ensure employee training is complete and up-to-date. 5.6 Human Resources Costs The costs of implementing the Human Resource Strategy are illustrated in Table Six. Human Resource needs are anticipated to increase in year three, which is when the Attridge Drive Tim Hortons is expected to reach capacity operation levels. Table Six: Projected Human Resource costs Labor Costs 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Management/Supervisors $178,100.00 $180,336.00 $183,942.72 $187,621.57 $191,374.01 Benefits for Salary Employees $30,526.34 $30,909.59 $31,527.78 $32,158.34 $32,801.50 Total Salaries $208,626.34 $211,245.59 $215,470.50 $219,779.91 $224,175.51 Part-Time Salaries $332,852.00 $339,509.04 $398,344.19 $406,311.07 $414,437.30 Benefits for Salary Employees $37,845.27 $38,602.18 $45,291.73 $46,197.57 $47,121.52 Total Wages $370,697.27 $378,111.22 $443,635.92 $452,508.64 $461,558.82 6.0 Financial Plan 6.1 Marketing, Operational and Human Resource Considerations Based on the nature of the business, the coffee industry is protected from seasonal fluctuations since the demand for coffee is considered to be stable year round, and the decrease in sales of cold beverages during the winter will be mitigated with an increase in sales of other hot beverages (such as hot chocolate and cider), and vice versa in 25 the summer. Please refer to Appendix Two, Three & Four to see the five year projected income statement, balance sheet and statement of cash flow. 6.1.1 Estimated Revenues The annual estimated revenues are the following (examined in detail by quantity and average selling price in Schedule 1). Table Seven: Sales Revenue projected to 5 years Sales Revenue 1 2 3 4 5 $1,369,251 $1,396,636 $2,005,692 $2,045,806 $2,086,722 We have examined the sales revenue based on average selling price, quantity of transactions in weekdays and weekends as well as in breakfast peak hours, lunch peak hours and non-peak hours. We assumed the growth rate of selling price is consistent with inflation rate which is 2%. After the new residential area, Evergreen have been developed in 2013, we expect store run to full capacity (i.e. drive-thru transaction rise up to 30 per hours, non-peak hours increase to double at year 3). 6.1.2 Cost of Goods Sold The detail for Cost of Goods Sold is as follow (see Schedule 2 as details), assuming growth margin is 60%. Table Eight: Cost of Goods sold from year 2 to 5 2011 COGS $ 547,700 2012 $ 558,654 2013 $ 802,277 2014 $ 818,323 2015 $ 834,689 Note: In year 3 we hit full capacity based on drive thru and assuming peak all thru out the day. rational: organic growth plus new neighborhood development ( Evergreen) 26 6.1.3 Operating Expenses Table Nine: Operating Expense for 5 years Schedule 4: Expenses Year Utilities Royalty fees Full time wages Benefits rental fees Advertising Interest Part time wages Other Fixed costs Total Expenses 4.5% $ 8.5% 4% 1 15,000 61,616 178,100 37,845 69,832 54,770 24,075 332,852 774,090 2 15,300 62,849 180,336 38,602 71,228 55,865 22,490 339,509 786,180 3 15,606 90,256 183,943 45,292 102,290 80,228 20,763 398,344 936,722 4 5 15,918 16,236 92,061 93,903 187,622 191,374 46,198 $ 47,121.52 104,336 106,423 81,832 83,469 18,880 16,828 406,311 414,437 953,158 969,792 The expense items are as follow: Utilities: Close estimate based on building size and operating hours. Royalty Fees, rental fees and monthly advertising fees were given at website. Full time & part time wages, benefits refer to human resources budget Interest: based on 10 years loan with interest rate 9%, see schedule 6 & 7 for details 6.1.4 Working Capital Estimates 6.1.4.1 Inventories Inventories will primarily be composed of the direct materials that generate specialty coffee drinks, plus Tim Hortons merchandizing products. Direct materials take over 90% of an average 4 inventory days. For merchandizing products, inventory days can be up to 24 days, occupy the 10% of input supply. We will have an average of 6 days of inventory and have regular orders placed every four days. 6.1.4.2 Accounts Receivable 27 Since the nature of the business is primarily cash or cash equivalent since all transactions generating sales of small value (usually less than $20.00) we have no accounts receivable balance. 6.1.4.3 Accounts Payable We are assuming that our only supplier, the TDL group will allow purchases on credit about 1 to 2 weeks. In a conservative approach, we take 12 days as an average account payable period. 6.1.4.4 Operating Line of Credit Through the franchise, the bank will provide $267,500 (50%) of money loaned for start-up costs of the business, and as well, we will be required to provide $267,500 in equity. This will be sufficient to cover start up costs of $535,000, which includes $480,000 franchise cost and $55,000 working capital. 6.1.5 Capital Budget and Depreciation Since Tim Hortons own the building, furniture and equipment, it is not required to consider the amortization of usage. At the end of each five-year period of the License term, at the sole discretion of The TDL Group Corp. has the obligation to refurbish the restaurant to meet current Tim Hortons’ standards. 6.2 Financing Budget Franchiser is responsible for $55,000 as working capital in at least franchise cost of $144,000. We would contribute 50% of the budget can be financed through liability, $267,500. The term of the license agreement is usually 10 years. There will be an option to renew for up to a further period of 10 years. Table Ten: Financing Budget Schedule 6: Financing Budget Year Debt 50% Equity Total 535,000 1 267,500 267,500 535,000 28 6.3 Debt Amortization Schedules For the coming five projected period, term of debt is ten years. Principal you need is $267,500, with an interest rate 9%, payment amount is $41,682 every year. Interest amount is $24,075 and the principal reduction is $17,607 as the first year. Therefore, end balance of debt decrease through time. Table Eleven: Debt amortization projected to 5 years Schedule 7: Debt Ammortization Schedule Year Term Beg Bal 10 Addition Payment Interest Princ Red End Bal 1 267,500 41,682 24,075 17,607 249,893 2 249,893 41,682 22,490 19,191 230,702 3 230,702 41,682 20,763 20,919 209,783 4 209,783 41,682 18,880 22,801 186,981 5 186,981 41,682 16,828 24,854 162,128 6.4 Corporate Income Taxes Corporation tax rate in Saskatchewan is 12.0% and federal corporate rate is 18% if the business over $500,000 limit. The calculation of the annual tax payment is increasing from $67,184 in the first year, up to $170,497 in year five. Table Twelve: Corporate Income Tax projection in first five years Income Taxes Federal Corporate Rate 1 18.0% 2 16.5% 3 15.0% 4 15.0% 5 15.0% 1 47,460 - 2 51,802 - 3 266,694 - 4 274,325 - 5 282,242 - Taxable Income 47,460 51,802 266,694 274,325 282,242 Federal Tax Small Bus Tax Credit Provincial Tax 12,814 (7,594) 2,136 13,986 (8,288) 2,331 72,007 (42,671) 12,001 74,068 (43,892) 12,345 76,205 (45,159) 12,701 7,356 8,029 41,337 42,520 43,747 Income Before Taxes Accumulated Loss Carryforward Loss Carryforward Used Total Taxes 29 6.5 Economic Forecast The estimate expected inflation rate is 2.0%, based on the 2009 to 2010 inflation rate. Nominal interest rate is 9.0% in order to take a conservative approach. 6.6 Dividend Policy We as a group will take the total of 25% from net income as dividend every year end. The proportion of amount will be distributed according to the amount of time that put in every year for each investor. 6.7 Ratio Analysis The figures we generated from ratio analysis are attractive. Current and quick ratios are more than 100% and increase at least double growth rate. It shows the strong cash flow strength will be foreseen. For investment utilization, inventory turnover rate is high, which means the business can run very efficiently with direct materials and merchandized products. The account payable is also effective since all the supply is from the TDL team; therefore the account payable period is not a main concern. Asset turnover will increase from 7% to 40% from year 1 to year 3, which show the full capacity will promise the return in three years. Table Thirteen: Ratio Analysis (Liquidity and Investment Utilization) 1 2 3 4 5 Current Ratio 13% 20% 85% 162% 260% Quick Ratio 10% 16% 80% 156% 253% Inventory T/O 60.83 60.83 60.83 60.83 60.83 Inventory Day 6 6 6 6 6 A/P Turnover 54.92 54.79 50.10 50.04 49.97 30 A/P T/O Days 6.65 6.66 7.29 7.29 7.30 7% 7% 30% 26% 23% Total asset Turnover No fixed asset turnover More ratio analysis has been performed. Debt ratio has shown this franchise will be in a healthy condition financially. It will become better while the debt continue to be paid off. Cash flow to debt and interest coverage indicates the company has no problem in debt financing. Net profit margin, return on assets and return on equity and investment provides a positive profitability for this business. Table Fourteen: Ratio Analysis (Solvency & Profitability) 1 2 3 4 5 Debt Ratio 47.93% 43.58% 32.87% 24.83% 18.87% Debt/Equity Ratio 92.06% 77.25% 48.95% 33.03% 23.26% 17% 20% 109% 123% 142% Interest Coverage 197% 230% 1284% 1453% 1677% Net Profit Margin 2.93% 3.13% 11.24% 11.33% 11.43% Return on Assets 7.02% 7.47% 30.29% 25.88% 22.71% Return on Equity 13.48% 13.25% 45.12% 34.43% 27.99% 14.64% 17.15% 92.17% 104.24% 120.31% CF to Total Debt Return on Investment 31 6.9 Financial & Investment Analysis Table Fifteen: Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return Analysis Schedule 10: Investment Analysis Investment Analysis Required Return on Equity Investment Cash Flows: Operating Cash Flow Dividends Salvage Value Total Cash Flows (535,000) 1 2 3 4 5 10% 47,585 10,026 35,825 10,943 266,933 56,339 267,385 57,951 57,611 46,768 323,272 325,336 273,703 59,624 333,327 1,086,315 Calculate NPV and IRR NPV IRR 228,083 21.47% When we look at the net present value (NPV=228,083) and internal rate of return (IRR=21.47%), the analysis show reasonable valuation for this business. With the condition that the TDL Team will invest the land, building and most of the equipments, this allows more cash flows for reinvesting the own business such as paying back debt, royalty fees, rents and advertising fees etc. There are dividends paid to investors as well, which is the decision is being made in a corporate function. The required return of equity is 10% by a conservative approach. The valuation of IRR has exceeds approximately ten times than what it is required. The projected rate of return is very positive, with no salvage value necessarily considered since the TDL Team will own the building. Therefore, the risk of amortization and fluctuation of fixed cost are mitigated. Investment on equity projected a high return on the cash flow the business held. 6.9 Risk Analysis We have performed a scenario analysis by varying the variable of number of transaction a day. The best case scenario is the store will operate to full capacity in year one, which means totally 150 transactions an hour (i.e. 2.5 transactions every minutes, while two tills and a drive-thru operate at the same time). The worst case scenario is 32 pretending the store will not reach full capacity until the fifth year. It is assuming the number of transaction during a non-peak hour is 75 (i.e. 2.5 transactions every two minutes). From this analysis, we see if the store can reach full capacity in 3 years, the NPV and IRR are in positive and healthy condition. But the worst case saying if the full capacity is not reached, business will start losing money, since the direct labour cost is increasing every years. Therefore, the number of transactions is one of the critical factor to indicate if the business in this location will be popular or not. Therefore, if the area becomes fully developed and generates high traffic, the investment of this business looks very promising. Table Sixteen: Scenario Analysis Scenario Analysis 1 2 3 4 5 Base Case $ 1,369,251 $ 1,396,636 $ 2,005,692 $ 2,045,806 $ 2,086,722 Best Case $ 1,927,809 $ 1,966,365 $ 2,005,692 $ 2,045,806 $ 2,086,722 Worst Case $ 1,369,251 $ 1,396,636 $ 1,424,569 $ 1,453,060 $ 2,086,722 Figure Five: Scenario Analysis of Revenue Projection in Five Years $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 Base Case Best Case $1,000,000 Worst Case $500,000 $1 2 3 4 5 33 Table Seventeen: NPV and IRR of Base case, Best case and Worst case NPV IRR Base Case, full capacity in year 3 $ 228,083.23 21.47% Best Case, full capacity in year 1 $ 804,501.20 62.61% Worst Case, no full capacity $ (267,640.56) -6.71% Figure Six: Scenario Analysis of NPV NPV $1,000,000.00 $800,000.00 $600,000.00 NPV $400,000.00 $200,000.00 $$(200,000.00) Base Case, full capacity in year 3 Best Case, full capacity in year 1 Worst Case, no full capacity $(400,000.00) Figure Seven: Scenario Analysis of IRR IRR Worst Case, no full capacity Best Case, full capacity in year 1 IRR Base Case, full capacity in year 3 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 34 7.0 Conclusion Tim Hortons holds 46 years of experience in this industry and has an excellent reputation for its consistent quality and service. Attridge Drive proves to be the perfect location to start a Tim Hortons franchise as it will attract a large number of customers from the community. With the recent growth of the community, the launch of the franchise will quench an unmet demand for quick coffee service in the area. The business plan has estimated a high return on cash flows with a return on equity of 10% and a positive net present value of over two million dollars for the first five years. The operations, marketing, human resource, and financial plans will justify that investing in a Tim Hortons franchise for the Saskatoon’s northeast communities is a great opportunity for investors. 35 8.0 Appendix Appendix One: Human Resource needs and scheduling during weekdays & weekends 36 Appendix Two: Income Statement Income Statement For the year ended Revenues COGS Gross Profit 1 1,369,251 547,700 821,551 2 1,396,636 558,654 837,982 3 2,005,692 802,277 1,203,415 4 2,045,806 818,323 1,227,484 5 2,086,722 834,689 1,252,033 Expenses Utilities Royalty Fees Wages Benefits Rental Fees mothly advertising Interest Other Total Expenses 15,000 61,616 510,952 37,845 69,832 54,770 24,075 774,090 15,300 62,849 519,845 38,602 71,228 55,865 22,490 786,180 15,606 90,256 582,287 45,292 102,290 80,228 20,763 936,722 15,918 92,061 593,933 46,198 104,336 81,832 18,880 953,158 16,236 93,903 605,811 47,122 106,423 83,469 16,828 969,792 Net Income b4 tax Income Taxes Net Income 47,460 7,356 40,104 51,802 8,029 43,772 266,694 41,337 225,356 274,325 42,520 231,805 282,242 43,747 238,494 Retained Earnings Beg RE Net Income Dividends End RE 40,104 10,026 30,078 30,078 43,772 10,943 62,907 62,907 225,356 56,339 231,924 231,924 231,805 57,951 405,778 405,778 238,494 59,624 584,648 Balance Sheet Year Cash Inventories Franchise cost Building Equipment Acc CCA Total Assets 1 27,533 9,003 535,000 571,537 2 41,472 9,183 535,000 585,656 3 195,728 13,188 535,000 743,916 4 347,210 13,452 535,000 895,662 5 501,666 13,721 535,000 1,050,387 Acc Pay LTD Common Equity RE Total Liab & Equity 24,066 249,893 267,500 30,078 571,537 24,547 230,702 267,500 62,907 585,656 34,709 209,783 267,500 231,924 743,916 35,403 186,981 267,500 405,778 895,662 36,111 162,128 267,500 584,648 1,050,387 25% Appendix Three: Balanced Sheet 38 Appendix Four: Statement of Cash Flow Cash Flow For the year ended Net Income CCA Dividends Inventories Total Franchise Cost Building Equipment Acc Pay LTD Common Equity Net Cash Flow Beg Cash End Cash 1 40,104 10,026 (9,003) (535,000) 24,066 249,893 267,500 47,585 2 43,772 10,943 (180) 481 (19,191) 35,825 3 225,356 56,339 (4,005) 10,162 (20,919) 266,933 4 231,805 57,951 (264) 694 (22,801) 267,385 5 238,494 59,624 (269) 708 (24,854) 273,703 47,585 47,585 83,410 83,410 350,344 350,344 617,729 617,729 891,432 39