Neg – China CP
1NC
CP TEXT- the Republic of China should <insert plan>
The survival of China is threatened by water scarcity
The Economist 13- “Desperate Measures- Rivers are disappearing in China. Building
canals is not the solution”, 10/ 12/13, http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21587789desperate-measures // CS
Unlike some of China’s recent infrastructure extravagances, the diversion project addresses a
serious problem. China is dangerously short of water. While the south is a lush, lake-filled region,
the north—which has half the population and most of the farmland—is more like a desert. The
international definition of water stress is 1,000 cubic metres of usable water per person per year.
The average northern Chinese has less than a fifth of that amount. China has 20% of the world’s
population but only 7% of its fresh water . A former prime minister, Wen Jiabao, once said water
shortages threaten “the very survival of the Chinese nation ”. The shortage is worsening because
China’s water is disappearing. In the 1950s the country had 50,000 rivers with catchment areas of
100 square kilometres or more. Now the number is down to 23,000. China has lost 27,000 rivers,
mostly as a result of over-exploitation by farms or factories. Water shortages impose big costs.
China is hoping for a shale-gas revolution but does not have enough water for it since most of the
gas reserves are in the driest parts of the country. The World Bank puts the cost of China’s water
problems—mostly damage to health—at 2.3% of a year’s GDP
China alone can solve- Chinese government investing in nuclear seawater desalination projects now
but more funding key
Zhang and Jia 08- Yajun and Haijun- Professors at the Institute of Nuclear Energy Technology
Tsinghua University, Beijing, “Nuclear Seawater Desalination Plant Coupled with 200 MW Heating
Reactor”, pdf, http://www.kau.edu.sa/Files/320/Researches/47532_18975.pdf // CS
With the rapid economic and social development, China is nowadays also facing severe problems of
fresh water shortage, particularly in north China. The Chinese government pays a lot of attention on the
fresh water shortage problems and has initiated a very large water transfer engineering, namely
transferring south China water to north China through three different man-made canals located in
eastern, middle and western China separately. In fact, the construction engineering of middle way has
been started and Beijing can obtain some water from the canal during the period of 2008 summer
Olympic Games. Although the engineering is very grand and ambitious, it can not solve all fresh water
shortage problems in north China, not even to say the possible high water price. Along the eastern coast
of China, there are a lot of metropolitan and middle side cities, such as Tianjing and its neighbor city
Beijing, Dalian in Liaodong peninsula, Yantai and Qingdao in Shandong peninsula , all of them have the
fresh water shortage problems and are eager to use desalination technology to solve or alleviate the
fresh water shortage problems . In addition, many Chinese coastal power plants also have shown very
strong interest to use the desalted seawater as power plant feed water. The Dagang power plant in
Tianjing city has the longest history to use the desalted seawater as its boiler feed water in China, its
3,000 m3 /d MSF unit imported from USA has been operated for over 10 years. On June 4 of 2004, a
MED-TVC unit of 3,000 m3 /d fresh water production capability made in China has been tested in
Huangdao power plant. Sidem built a four effect MED-TVC desalination unit for a power plant in Hebei
province. All above mentioned thermal way seawater desalination projects, not to say the more rapidly
developing membrane seawater desalination, are just a few representative projects for a booming
desalination market in China. Under the background of severe water shortage problems, Shandong
nuclear seawater desalination project has been agreed by Chinese government as a new technology
demonstration project and the feasibility study report on the project has been finished at INET and the
final report will be submitted to the Chinese government after the further optimum study. The
comparative investigation of two cases, respectively coupling the NHR-200 with vertical tube evaporator
VTE-MED or with horizontal tube evaporator MED-TVC, has been carried out and the paper summarizes
the two kinds of seawater desalination plants and compares the preliminary economic analysis results
[1].
China desalination provides a global model- spills over
Shifflett 01/16- Susan Chan- Program associate at the Wilson Center's China Environment Forum
where she focuses on China's water, energy, and food, “Can China Solve Its Water-Energy Choke
Point? Wilson Center Launches ‘China Environment Series 12’”, New Security Beat, 01/06/14,
http://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2014/01/china-solve-water-energy-choke-point-wilson-centerlaunches-china-environment-series-12/ // CS
Factories in China’s Pearl River Delta tick-tock around the clock, rapidly churning out gadgets from
iPhones and Barbie dolls to forks and light bulbs, shipped off to village shops in Uganda and super
Walmarts in America’s sprawling suburbs. But far from the global consumer’s view, manufacturing
and rapid development are placing unrelenting pressure on China’s environment. This pressure is
perhaps most visible when it comes to the confrontation between energy demand and water supply.
Twenty percent of water withdrawn in China goes to coal mining, processing, and power plants,
which supply 70 percent of China’s electricity. These plants keep the lights on and the factories
running. On the other side of the supply chain, factories spew pollutants – ranging from dyes used
for skinny jeans to paints for toy train sets – into main waterways. The contaminated water is either
treated – a process which carries significant energy costs – or, as is too often the case, leaches
underground and ends up in irrigation systems, the lifeline of the nation’s food supply. At the same
time, China is undergoing the greatest human migration in modern history. By 2025 an estimated
350 million people – more than the entire U.S. population today – will be added to China’s urban
areas. Water and energy are required inputs for the steel and cement needed by these new and
growing cities, as well as the acquired tastes of new urbanites, such as air conditioners and meatintensive diets, further driving demand. The implications of this water-energy “choke point” are
far-reaching . China is importing water-intensive crops and shoring up energy resources abroad.
While agriculture is responsible for the majority of domestic water pollution, the water required for
the energy sector will continue to grow in the next few decades alongside demand. These
competing priorities are a significant quandary for a country already facing a major water scarcity
crisis (water availability per capita is one-quarter the global average). The China Environment Forum
has explored this nexus for years through our “Choke Point” series with the journalists at Circle of
Blue, and this year the 12th edition of the China Environment Series is also a special water-energy
issue. Global Implications In the opening feature of China Environment Series 12, Michael Davidson
(Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Gretchen Greene (Ropes & Gray), and Mingming Liu
(Natural Resources Defense Council) urge the textile industry in China, the world’s top apparel
exporter, to adopt more water efficient practices and technologies that can lead to co-savings in
water and energy . They point out that reducing pollution and water usage can also improve a
company’s bottom line. The authors cite the Responsible Sourcing Initiative, spearheaded by the
Natural Resources Defense Council and a group of apparel retailer and brand partners, which laid
out 10 best practices to improve water efficiency, ranging from insulating pipes to reusing cooling
water. Together the techniques “can save 25 percent of the water and 30 percent of the energy
used in a typical cotton fabric dyeing mill in China, all with initiatives that recoup costs in less than
eight months,” they write. David Cohen-Tanugi (MIT) offers a perspective on China’s increasing role
in the desalination industry, suggesting investment by the government could make desalination
more environmentally and economically friendly – and not only domestically . In places such as
Almería in southern Spain, the local desalination plant accounts for more than 30 percent of the
region’s total power consumption, he says. But “China boasts significant economies of scale and a
taste for risk that could enable growth in next-generation water technologies, ultimately bringing
down the cost of desalination for other water-challenged nations .” International Rivers’ Peter
Bosshard and Katy Yan discuss the balancing act of water and energy management in China’s
herculean dam-building efforts. It’s estimated that China is home to about half the world’s 45,000
large dams, spurred by exploding demand for energy since economic reforms in the 1980s. Bosshard
and Yan write that this dam-building spree is not only disruptive to local ecosystems and
communities, but increasingly spreading to China’s neighbors. They cite a recent offer to help
finance and construct five large dams in ethnic conflict zones in Myanmar, as an example that could
have significant environmental and political repercussions. China’s ability to scale up infrastructure
and new technologies at dizzying speed has thus far sustained the country on an all-out sprint to fill
the hands of eager global consumers and meet the growing needs of its citizens. Without proper
coordinated water and energy management, however, the country will inflict irreparable harm on its
environment, affecting air, water, and food quality for generations. “The government should give
the utmost priority to the promotion of efficiency improvements, the optimization of existing energy
infrastructure, and the expansion of renewable energy sources,” write Bousshard and Yan. “At the
same time, Beijing will need to accelerate the country’s transition to a less energy and resourceintensive economy so that it does not need to sacrifice its long-term environmental security for
short-term economic growth.” Can China keep pace with its own growth without destroying the
environment? As the world’s manufacturer, how China manages the water-energy nexus will have
ripple effects across the global economy and environment.
Impact is Chinese economic collapse
Vidal 06- John- Guardian's environment editor, “Cost of water shortage: civil unrest, mass
migration and economic collapse”, 08/ 16/ 06, The Guardian,
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2006/aug/17/water.internationalnews // CS
Cholera may return to London, the mass migration of Africans could cause civil unrest in Europe and
China's economy could crash by 2015 as the supply of fresh water becomes critical to the global
economy . That was the bleak assessment yesterday by forecasters from some of the world's
leading corporate users of fresh water, 200 of the largest food, oil, water and chemical companies.
Analysts working for Shell, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Cargill and other companies which depend
heavily on secure water supplies, yesterday suggested the next 20 years would be critical as
countries became richer, making heavier demands on scarce water supplies. In three future
scenarios, the businesses foresee growing civil unrest, boom and bust economic cycles in Asia and
mass migrations to Europe. But they also say scarcity will encourage the development of new watersaving technologies and better management of water by business. The study of future water
availability, which the corporations have taken three years to compile, suggests water conflicts are
likely to become common in many countries, according to the World Business Council on
Sustainable Development, which brought the industrial groups together. Lloyd Timberlake,
spokesman for the council, said: "The growing demand for water in China can potentially lead to
over-exploitation and a decline in availability for domestic, agricultural, industry and energy
production use. This inevitably leads to loss of production, both industrial and agricultural, and can
also affect public health - all of which in turn will ultimately lead to an economic downturn . The
question is how can business address these challenges and still make a profit." The corporations
were yesterday joined by the conservation group WWF and the International Water Management
Institute, the world's leading body on fresh water management, which said water scarcity was
increasing faster than expected . In China, authorities had begun trucking in water to millions of
people after wells and rivers ran dry in the east of the country. "Globally, water usage has increased
by six times in the past 100 years and will double again by 2050, driven mainly by irrigation and
demands of agriculture. Some countries have already run out of water to produce their own food.
Without improvements ... the consequences will be even more widespread water scarcity and
rapidly increasing water prices," said Frank Rijsberman, director of the institute. The institute,
funded by government research organisations, will report next week that a third of the world's
population, more than 2 billion people, is living in places where water is overused - leading to falling
underground water levels and drying rivers - or cannot be accessed. Mr Rijsberman said rising living
standards in India and China could lead to increased demand for better food, which would in turn
need more water to produce. He expected the price of water to increase everywhere to meet an
expected 50% increase in the amount of food the world will need in the next 20 years. According to
the institute's assessment, Egypt imports more than half of its food because it does not have enough
water to grow it domestically and Australia is faced with water scarcity in the Murray-Darling Basin
as a result of diverting large quantities of water for use in agriculture. The Aral Sea in central Asia is
another example of massive diversion of water for agriculture in the Soviet era causing widespread
water scarcity, and one of the world's worst environmental disasters. Researchers say it is possible
to reduce water scarcity, feed people and address poverty, but the key trade-off is with the
environment. "People and their governments will face some tough decisions on how to allocate and
manage water," says the institute's report. In a further paper, WWF said yesterday that water crises,
long seen as a problem of only the poorest, are affecting the wealthiest nations. "In Europe,
countries along the Atlantic are suffering recurring droughts, while water-intensive tourism and
irrigated agriculture are endangering water resources in the Mediterranean. In Australia, salinity is a
major threat to a large proportion of its key agricultural areas", said Jamie Pittock, director of
WWF's freshwater programme. In the United States, Mr Pittock said, large areas are already using
substantially more water than can be naturally replenished. "This situation will only be exacerbated
as climate change is predicted to bring lower rainfall, increased evaporation and changed patterns
of snow melting." Three visions of the future 1. Misery and shortages in the megacities and drought
in Africa By 2010, 22 megacities with populations larger than 10 million face major water and
sewerage problems. The situation is gravest in China, where 550 of the country's 600 largest cities
are running short. Growing demand for water by industry leads to serious over-exploitaion with less
and less water available for consumers and farmers. This leads to a fall in Chinese food production,
which in turn leads to more imports and impacts on other countries. Friction and unrest grow
worldwide as the middle classes struggle to pay bills. Businesses are exposed to charges of moral
culpability and litigation over water use. Waves of immigrants flood in to Europe from increasingly
drought-torn Africa 2. China leads recycling rush as world moves to a new hydro economy By 2010,
the water shortage in many developing countries is recognised as one of the most serious political
and social issues of the time. Lack of water is stopping development and in many countries the rural
poor suffer as their water and other needs take second place to those of swelling cities and industry.
Local government worldwide is increasingly distrusted over water allocation, and historical divides
between rich and poor are exacerbated by water shortages. However, by 2025 a worldwide hydro
economy is developing, led by China . Vast new investments are made in recycling water and the
cost of desalination is greatly reduced. Innovative small-scale water treatment processes become
the norm 3. Water is the means of social control as floods and disease devastate world Water
becomes a key symbol of protest around the world and is seen as the most serious social and
political issue of the generation. By 2015, multinational companies are accused regularly of taking
too much water in developing countries, cholera breaks out in London, and governments start to
use water as a form of social control, subsidising some sectors and rationing it to others. Great
floods follow each other in quick succession. Deforestation leads to massive mudslides in Asia and
increasing flooding affects Europe, damaging industry. A second New Orleans flood destroys the city
again. Global focus grows on the "export" of water via crops such as wheat or fruit
Uniqueness
3/5 of Chinese cities face water scarcity
Carella 11- Chiara- Journalist for Frost and Sullivan, specialist in Central and Eastern Europe,
11/24/11, “Water Stress in China: Desalination Takes Centre Stage, According to Frost & Sullivan”,
Frost and Sullivan, http://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/press-release.pag?docid=247358054 // CS
With China's tremendous growth, the migration of people from rural places into urban areas is
becoming more significant. The expansion and the development of Mega Cities and of some coastal
cities in China (eg. Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) led to a steeply increasing
requirement of human resource as well as natural resource supply. Today, 400 cities out of 668 in
China are faced with the challenge of water scarcity . The Chinese government is taking different
steps and actions to solve the problem and desalination certainly is one of the key solutions . But
what is the potential of desalination industry in China? Frost & Sullivan analyst Jennie Peng explains:
"The Chinese desalination market is still very young with immature regulation and market
environment. Several projects have been established in Northern China coastal areas which
significantly enhance the confidence for the government and project developers in the wide
adoption of desalination in water scarce coastal areas of China. However, there still is lack of
supporting policies in terms of risk proof mechanisms, allocation of funds or subsidies, and
measurement for development of desalination projects". Three important documents: China Ocean
Agenda 21, The Outline of the National Planning for Development of Ocean Economy and The
Special Plan for Seawater utilisation set the guidelines for the Chinese seawater desalination
industry. Particularly, The Special Plan for Seawater Utilisation clearly states the potential for
seawater desalination development, investment environment, and regional targets for desalination
and seawater utilisation. Furthermore, the 12th five year plan on seawater utilisation is expected to
issue more up-to-date development plans on city-level next year. The central government is
encouraging the development of renewable energy projects (wind-powered/nuclear-powered
plants, etc.), in which desalination can be adopted as auxiliary water supply and treatment system.
This is to utilise either the abundant power or heat to generate desalinated water and integrate the
energy and water recycling system. Desalination can then benefit from the special fund allocated to
renewable energy industry by the Chinese government. "Though detailed policies for desalination
industry are yet to be confirmed for the 12th five year plan (2011-2015), it can be expected that
favourable policies will become clear and will be translated into city-level goals with regulations on
both privatisation and long-term risk proof", states Jennie Peng. The Chinese government is pushing
domestic companies to pursue innovative desalination technologies and increase the product
quality, lifespan and services. This is seen as important to catch up with the international established
suppliers and further reduce the overall desalination cost. At present, the gap in cost between
domestic and imported desalination equipment is still significant. Imported equipment is still
preferred by large scale project developers, mainly on account of the assurance related to stable
quality and treatment efficiency. But along with the growth in the industry, localisation is the trend.
The localisation rate of desalination products/systems (the ratio of production/supply from local
manufacturers or technology suppliers vs. overall supplies in China) is about 60% now, and this rate
is targeted to reach 90% by 2020.
China suffering from chronic drought- desalination solves
Wong 04/ 15- Edward- American journalist and a foreign correspondent for The New York Times,
B. E. degree from the State University of New York at Stony Brook, his Sc. M. degree from Brown
University, and his Ph. D. degree from Purdue University, all in Electrical Engineering, 04/15/14,
“Desalination Plant Said to be Planned for Thirsty Beijing”, NY Times,
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/16/world/asia/desalination-plant-beijing-china.html?_r=0 // CS
BEIJING — A coastal desalination plant planned for east of Beijing could provide a large portion of
the drinking water for the parched Chinese capital by 2019 , the state news media quoted officials
as saying on Tuesday. The reports indicated that the government and state enterprises were
investing heavily in desalination projects to alleviate a dire water shortage in northern China. The
reports, citing officials who spoke over the weekend and on Monday, said that the proposed plant,
to be located in the city of Tangshan in Hebei Province, had already been approved by a provincial
development agency. The plan is to complete construction of the plant by 2019 and for it to supply
one million tons of fresh water each day , which could account for one-third of the water
consumption of Beijing, a city of more than 22 million people, officials said. A headline on an article
published by Global Times, a populist state-run newspaper, said, “Seawater to Supply Beijing in
2019.” The plant would be the core of one of the biggest desalination projects in China. It is the
second phase of a desalination project that is run by Aqbewg, a joint venture company formed by
Aqualyng, a Norwegian company, and Beijing Enterprises Water Group, which has its headquarters
in Hong Kong and is a subsidiary of a large state-owned company. The first phase of the project, a
plant east of Beijing in a district of Tangshan called Caofeidian, already produces about 50,000 tons
of water each day for the district’s use, officials said. The water comes from Bo Hai, a body of water
just off the Yellow Sea in northeastern China. The second, larger plant would cost an estimated $1.1
billion, and the pipelines to Beijing, about 170 miles long, would cost $1.6 billion, the state news
media reports said. The price for the water in Beijing would be $1.29 per ton, twice as much as the
current price of tap water, the reports said. Northern China has been suffering for many years from
a chronic drought , and officials in the central and local governments have been desperately
searching for ways to bring drinking water to the most populated areas. The affected areas include
Beijing and Tianjin, which has 12 million people. Tianjin has a $4 billion desalination plant that uses
Israeli equipment and is owned by a government-run conglomerate. In 2011, that plant — the
Beijiang Power and Desalination Plant — was one of two in Tianjin and supplied a suburb with
10,000 tons of desalted water daily. It plans to expand the amount pumped daily to 180,000 tons.
The desalination projects are in addition to an enormous engineering feat called the South-North
Water Diversion Project, which aims to transport at least six trillion gallons of water each year to
northern China from the Yangtze River and its tributaries, which are in southern China. That project
consists of a series of canals and dams costing an estimated $62 billion. The eastern and middle
routes have been under construction for years and have gone over budget, while a western route
crossing the high and rugged Tibetan plateau is still only in the proposal stage. In December, the
Chinese government announced that the first phase of the eastern route had officially begun
drawing water from the Yangtze and transporting it to Dezhou, in the northeastern province of
Shandong. Once finished, the eastern route will have 912 miles of canals and waterways. Pollution
has been a persistent problem on that route, and officials have had to order the construction of 426
sewage treatment plants. The middle route, also plagued by problems and criticized by
environmental advocates, runs more than 800 miles from Hubei Province to Beijing. The plans call
for the relocation of about 350,000 villagers to make way for the canal. Since it began operation in
September 2008, a so-called emergency supplement to the middle route that diverts water to
Beijing from reservoirs in Hebei Province, which surrounds Beijing, has provided the Chinese capital
with 1.5 billion cubic meters, or 400 billion gallons, of water, Global Times reported. Officials in
Hebei, which itself has a huge water shortage, have objected to this diversion.
Significant gap between Chinese fresh water supply and demand- desalination solves
Clemente 13- Rodney- VP of Technical Service & Aftermarket at Energy Recovery Inc., “China's
Mega-Desalination Plant Experience”, November 2013, Energy Recovery,
http://www.energyrecovery.com/chinas-mega-desalination-plant-experience // CS
The gap between fresh water supply and demand is steadily widening in the People’s Republic of
China, home to approximately 20% of the world's population. Demand for water supplies
continues to grow as both personal and industrial consumption surges. Underground water
resources, meanwhile, are already overused and badly polluted, and the deep wells now being
drilled are frequently tapping into arsenic-rich aquifers, posing safety risks to as much as 30% of the
country's population. To help combat shortages, desalination, in the form of sea water reverse
osmosis (SWRO), has become an integral part of China's long-term water management strategy.
Historically used on a small scale, desalination is now becoming more widely accepted for largescale water production, particularly in highly populated coastal areas. In recent years, China
announced plans to grow its desalination capacity to 2.2 million m3/d (581 million GPD) by 2015,
and Chinese water authorities formed partnerships with global water treatment companies to
construct large SWRO facilities. So far, this initiative has resulted in the construction of the nation's
two largest SWRO plants -- the Qingdao and Tianjin Dagang SWRO desalination facilities. Designed,
constructed and operated by Abengoa and Hyflux, respectively, the two plants together add 200,000
m3/d (52 MGD) of installed capacity to China’s water network. Half of that comes from the Tianjin
facility, which began delivering desalinated water to the northern China city's industrial zone in July
2009. Three years later in eastern China, Qingdao’s municipal water supply began receiving a
comparable amount of water from the new SWRO plant there. Both of these state-of-the-art
facilities use the latest desalination technologies, including rotary-type isobaric energy recovery
devices (ERD). By considering not only initial capital expenses, but also operational and maintenance
expenses, material alternatives and expected uptime of the Energy Recovery System (ERS), these
plants demonstrate how sustained long-term energy efficiency can be achieved in large-scale SWRO
plants. By displaying proper system design and energy recovery device (ERD) selection, both megaplants provide an excellent model for future desalination projects in China.
Global freshwater resources critically compromised- desalination key
Kilisek 01/24- Roman- Global Energy & Natural Resources Analyst and a contributor at Breaking
Energy, ‘Climate Change, Desalination, and the Water- Food- Energy Nexus”, Breaking Energy,
http://breakingenergy.com/2014/01/24/climate-change-desalination-and-the-water-food-energynexus/ // CS
It is the time of the year again – Davos in Switzerland is playing host to the 2014 annual meeting of
the World Economic Forum. This is arguably the world’s most influential gathering of business and
political leaders, economists and anybody else who thinks he or she has a big idea for improving the
state of the world. One of the many global issues the World Economic Forum seeks to both address
with stakeholders and put a spotlight on in order to raise the general public’s awareness is the
impact of climate change on the water-food-energy nexus. On January 20, it published prior to the
annual meeting a report titled “Climate Adaptation: Seizing the Challenge”. The report describes the
water-energy-food nexus “as the inextricable link between food, energy and water systems, where
the use of and strains on one of these resources can affect the other. (…) Similarly, water
production, distribution and treatment are all energy intensive functions and can be affected by
energy shortages and pricing.” The report concludes that “climate change today is placing increasing
stress on this nexus.” According to the World Economic Forum, this illustrates the need for an
integrated multi-sector and multi-scale approach in order to address the impact of climate change
on the nexus. The problem is complex and each part of the nexus both has an impact on, and at the
same time, depends on the other. The GRACE Communication Foundation highlights how the three
systems intersect: “Energy is needed to treat and transport water [while] water is needed to
produce electricity and transport fuels; and while both energy and water are needed to produce
food, the quality of that water, [in turn], can be affected by food and energy production.” The
availability of global freshwater resources has already become critically compromised in many
regions . The UN system distinguishes between two widely-used definitions of ‘water scarcity’: The
first, ‘physical water scarcity’ occurs when there is not enough water to meet demand due to severe
environmental degradation, declining or depleted groundwater reservoirs, and unequal water
distribution. The second, ‘economic water scarcity’ occurs when a region lacks adequate investment
and proper water management to put necessary infrastructure in place for respective populations to
use existing water sources. As for the future impact of climate change on the water sector, the WEF
report cites research projecting that the “area of land subject to increasing water stress due to
climate change [will] be more than double that with decreasing water stress.” This is something the
general public will likely grasp intuitively. Thus, perhaps more interesting and important is the
projection that “precipitation will increase in high latitudes and parts of the tropics, while it will
substantially decrease in lower mid-altitude regions (arid and semi-arid)”. Note, any increased
precipitation in the High North of the Northern hemisphere – e.g. around the Arctic Circle in Russian
Siberia or Canada – due to warmer temperatures will basically result in a freshwater loss for the
planet. The melted freshwater stored in the form of ice sheets will eventually end up in the Arctic
Ocean as saltwater. This is obviously very counterproductive on top of the fact that it will contribute
to a rising sea level. The future impact of climate change on energy consumption as well as
production is as alarming. According to the World Bank, which launched a new initiative at the
World Future Energy Summit and International Water Summit in Abu Dhabi on January 20, 2014,
water scarcity is already threatening the long-term viability of energy projects worldwide. Examples
cited by the World Bank for the impact of water shortages include the shutdown of thermal power
plants in India, decreased energy production in power plants in the U.S. and threatened hydropower
capacity in countries such as China and Brazil. The ‘New Thirsty Energy’ initiative is intended to help
countries at risk to mitigate the impact of water scarcity on energy security. In a world where the
rural poor gravitate towards the big urban centers, energy consumption is expected to increase
significantly. Air-conditioning systems will be in high demand to cope with higher temperatures and
in regions with declining groundwater reservoirs governments will have to build expensive
infrastructure to either move water via pipelines to the densely populated urban centers or invest in
expensive and highly energy-intensive desalination plants. Demand for the latter – especially for
large-scale seawater desalination plants – will grow in the Arabian Gulf region due to a lack of water
resources, growing young populations and even changing preferences for food and consumption in
General. Note that China managed through environmental degradation to put itself in a worse
position and stormed to a top rank on this – if you like – “desalination transplant list”. Christopher
Gasson of GlobalWaterIntel (GWI) further notes “that although the Arabian Gulf countries are home
to 36% of the world’s desalination capacity, only 40 million people live in the region. The reason is
water availability. UN Water estimates that 1.2 billion people live in regions facing water scarcity,
while 600 million more are likely to encounter water scarcity by 2025. The situation can be expected
to worsen given rapid population growth in many drought-stricken regions, climate change, water
investment and management shortfalls, and inefficient use of existing freshwater resources. Simply
increasing global desalination capacity is no panacea either due to the fact that the number one cost
associated with desalination is energy consumption. Moreover, costs of desalinating seawater –
taking into account the necessary infrastructure, energy consumption and maintenance – tend to be
higher than for any of the alternatives. Cost structure Therefore, not only is it important to be aware
of the nexus itself – this also applies to the regulator, i.e. any energy production cannot just ignore
the impact on water, food supply or the environment – but most importantly, it is crucial to quantify
the impact of climate change on the nexus. Only then are we able to move from abstract problem
recognition to solving the concrete problem at hand. The WEF report recommends measures that
favor demand reduction over those that increase supply and argues for an implementation
consistent with knowledge about the myriad connections between the three systems and the
impact of climate change. The gap between countries that have both food and water security and
those that do not will widen in the future, leading to greater dependency on trade by the latter.
“Much of the adaptation measures developed to tackle climate change have so far been reactive,
triggered by past or current events. Yet the need is for them to be anticipatory and based on some
assessment of conditions in the future,” a cited OECD report adds. Thus it is key for companies in
the industrial sector to be aware of water usage statistics and adapt towards more efficient use.
Even though engineering solutions such as desalination plants can add to a country’s freshwater
supplies, cheaper and less energy-intensive solutions should be pursued and enabled by water
conservation and cross-border collaboration. Only yesterday did the government of the UAE, the
world’s seventh biggest per capita consumer of energy according to World Bank data, announce that
in order to discourage water and energy waste, power utilities in the UAE introduced tiered water
and electricity charges. Further, technology – especially in the form of ‘Big Data’ – has a crucial role
to play in helping governments make informed decisions based on satellite-driven sensors tracking
geological changes and weather patterns. Yet, one problem is here to stay; namely, that both water
and food security do not have an obvious impact on economic growth, at least in the short and
medium term, which differs from energy prices and their instantaneous impact on a country’s global
competitiveness.
Solvency
China is the next big desalination market- pre-requisite to supply world with fresh
water
Wines 11- Michael- Reporter for the New York Times, “China Takes a Loss to Get Ahead in the Business
of Fresh Water”, 10/25/11, The New York Times,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/world/asia/china-takes-loss-to-get-ahead-in-desalinationindustry.html?pagewanted=all&module=Search&mabReward=relbias%3Ar%2C%7B%222%22%3A%22RI
%3A13%22%7D // CS
TIANJIN, China — Towering over the Bohai Sea shoreline on this city’s outskirts, the Beijiang Power and
Desalination Plant is a 26-billion-renminbi technical marvel: an ultrahigh-temperature, coal-fired
generator with state-of-the-art pollution controls, mated to advanced Israeli equipment that uses its
leftover heat to distill seawater into fresh water . There is but one wrinkle in the $4 billion plant: The
desalted water costs twice as much to produce as it sells for. Nevertheless, the owner of the complex, a
government-run conglomerate called S.D.I.C., is moving to quadruple the plant’s desalinating capacity,
making it China’s largest. “Someone has to lose money,” Guo Qigang, the plant’s general manager, said
in a recent interview. “We’re a state-owned corporation, and it’s our social responsibility.” In some
places, this would be economic lunacy. In China, it is economic strategy. As it did with solar panels and
wind turbines, the government has set its mind on becoming a force in yet another budding
environment-related industry: supplying the world with fresh water . The Beijiang project, southeast
of Beijing, will strengthen Chinese expertise in desalination, fine-tune the economics, help build an
industrial base and, along the way, lessen a chronic water shortage in Tianjin. That money also leaks
away like water — at least for now — is not a prime concern. “The policy drivers are more important
than the economic drivers,” said Olivia Jensen, an expert on Chinese water policy and a director at
Infrastructure Economics, a Singapore-based consultancy. “If the central government says desalination is
going to be a focus area and money should go into desalination technology, then it will.” The
government has, and it is. At the government’s order, China is rapidly becoming one of the world’s
biggest growth markets for desalted water . The latest goal is to quadruple production by 2020, from
the current 680,000 cubic meters, or 180 million gallons, a day to as many as three million cubic meters,
about 800 million gallons, equivalent to nearly a dozen more 200,000-ton-a-day plants like the one
being expanded in Beijiang. China’s latest five-year plan for the sector is expected to order the
establishment of a national desalination industry , according to Guo Yozhi, who heads the China
Desalination Association. Institutes in at least six Chinese cities are researching developments in
membranes, the technology at the core of the most sophisticated and cost-effective desalination
techniques. The National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top-level state planning
agency, is drafting plans to give preferential treatment to domestic companies that build desalting
equipment or patent desalting technologies. There is talk of tax breaks and low-interest loans to
encourage domestic production. In an interview, Mr. Guo called the government role in desalination
“symbolic,” saying that direct government investment in seawater projects does not exceed 10 percent
of their cost. By comparison, he said, big water ventures like the massive South-North Water Diversion
Project, which will divert water from the Yangtze River in the south to the thirsty north, are completely
government-financed. Still, the government’s plans could mean an investment of as much as 200 billion
renminbi, or about $31 billion, by state-owned companies, government agencies and private partners.
Beijiang’s desalination complex, built by S.D.I.C. at the behest of the Development and Reform
Commission as a concept project, was almost wholly made in Israel, shipped to Tianjin and bolted
together. Nationally, less than 60 percent of desalination equipment and technology is domestic. China’s
goal is to raise that to 90 percent by 2020, said Jennie Peng, an analyst and water industry specialist at
the Beijing office of Frost & Sullivan, a consulting company based in San Antonio. There are plenty of
reasons for China to want a homegrown desalination industry, not the least of which is homegrown
fresh water . Demand for water here is expected to grow 63 percent by 2030 — gallon for gallon, more
than anywhere else on earth, according to the Asia Water Project, a business information organization.
Northern China has long been short of water, and fast-expanding cities like Beijing and Tianjin already
have turned to extensive recycling and conservation programs to meet the need. In Tianjin, deemed a
model city for water conservation, 90 percent of water used in industry is recycled; 60 percent of farm
irrigation systems use water-saving technologies; 148 miles of water-recycling pipes snake beneath the
city. Apartments in one 10-square-mile area of town feature two taps, one for drinking water and one
for recycled water suitable for other uses. The Beijiang plant, one of two, supplies an expanding suburb
with 10,000 tons of desalted water daily, with plans to someday pump 180,000 tons. A second 100,000ton facility supplies a vast ethylene production plant outside of town. The Beijiang plant has faced some
hiccups. The mineral-free distilled water scrubs rust from city pipes en route to taps, turning the water
brown. Some residents are suspicious of the water, saying its purity means it lacks nutrients. The plant is
addressing both complaints by adding minerals to the water. But some say slaking China’s thirst may be
a beneficial sideline to larger aims. The global market for desalination technology will more than
quadruple by 2020 to about $50 billion a year, the research firm SBI Energy predicted last month, and
growing water shortages worldwide appear to ensure further growth. Beyond that, the increasingly
sophisticated membrane technologies that filter salt from seawater can be applied to sewage
treatment, pollution control and a legion of other cutting-edge uses. Far outpaced now by foreign
membrane producers, which command at least 85 percent of the market, China is set on developing its
own advanced technologies . Some experts say that is where the government’s interest mostly lies.
“What this is about is developing China’s membrane industry, more than it is local use,” said Ms. Jensen,
the Singapore analyst. “This is an export industry fundamentally, not one to make a green China.”
Whatever the motivation, China is already racing toward meeting its targets. Just as foreign companies
rushed to China to secure a place in its budding wind-energy market, the list of foreign companies that
have plunged into China’s desalination industry is long: Hyflux of Singapore, Toray of Japan, Befesa of
Spain, Brack of Israel and ERI of the United States, among others. And just as foreigners shifted solarenergy research and production to China, desalination companies are leaving their home bases as well.
The Norwegian company Aqualyng is a partner with the Beijing city government on a desalination plant
in Tangshan, a coastal city about 135 miles east of Beijing, and is studying moving its manufacturing
facilities from Europe to China. ERI, which is based in San Francisco and claims to have the desalination
industry’s most advanced technology, is moving research facilities to China and is considering moving
manufacturing as well at some later date. Most of the foreign companies have partnered with stateowned corporations, for help in securing business and for political protection in a country where the
rule of law and protection of intellectual property are in a state of flux. And although some foreign
investors in technology-laden projects like wind energy and high-speed rail later claimed their Chinese
partners appropriated their technologies, the heads of ERI and Aqualyng say they can become
researchers and manufacturers in China without losing control of their products. The chairman of
Aqualyng’s board, Bernt Osthus, said in an interview that the company’s partnership with the Beijing
government had been “close to an ideal partner,” with the Norwegians controlling the technology and
the Chinese providing money and local know-how. He added, however, that the company was
considering a joint research venture with a Chinese partner. “By reducing our ownership in our
equipment and taking on a state-owned Chinese partner and moving production from Europe to China,
the technology effectively becomes Chinese,” he said. “I’m still the owner. I’m still owning my piece of
the pie. I’m just increasing the size of the pie.” And a big pie it is. “There are large-scale desalination
projects centralized all up and down the east coast of China,” ERI’s chief executive officer, Thomas S.
Rooney Jr., said in an interview. “Our company has the most advanced technology in the entire
desalination industry. And one of the beautiful things about China is that they like to adopt the most
advanced technologies.” “You can either fight them or join them, and our philosophy is that China likely
is going to be the next big desalination market ,” he added. “ I would rather develop technology for
China in China and take a more open approach than play the secrets game.”
Pricing mechanism and subsidies key to desalination projects- technology and process has been
mastered
Qian 13- Wang- journalist for China Daily, “Seawater can save thirsty country”, 05,06,13, China Daily,
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-05/06/content_16477523.htm // CS
More government support, including subsidies and a favorable pricing mechanism, is needed for the
country to use desalinated seawater to quench its thirst, a top industry expert said. "The lack of an
effective pricing mechanism for desalinated water and support for an operable policy is affecting the
development of the country's sea desalination industry," said Li Linmei, director of the State Oceanic
Administration's Institute of Seawater Desalination and Multipurpose Utilization in Tianjin. The country
aims to produce 2.2 million cubic meters of desalinated seawater daily in 2015, about three times
current capacity, according to a National Development and Reform Commission plan released last year.
Current domestic water prices range from 2.4 yuan to 4.9 yuan a metric ton in the coastal regions, while
the price of water for industry ranges from 3.3 yuan to 7.9 yuan a ton, according to ChinaWaterNet.
However, desalination plants can produce 674,000 tons daily at a cost of about 5 yuan ($0.80) a ton —
not including infrastructure such as pipelines. Li said the government should consider bringing
desalinated water into the water grid. Aside from subsidies and funding for pilot programs, Li believes
desalination is a key part of water security. " The seawater desalination industry is as important as
water conservancy projects for China to cope with its water shortage, " Li said. China suffers from
severe water shortages, nearly 54 billion cubic meters on average every year. This means that more
than 66 percent of cities experience water shortages . To compound that difficulty, water consumption
is expected to surge to about 700 billion cubic meters in 2030, up from 600 billion cubic meters. Facing
such a severe shortage, authorities are taking measures. In March, the NDRC identified the regions and
companies selected to carry out the first desalination projects, including heavily populated areas such as
Zhejiang and Hebei provinces, and the municipalities of Shenzhen and Tianjin. The commission asked
regions and companies to encourage desalinated water use for industrial and domestic purposes. The
industry is expected to get a 10-billion-yuan boost from the plan. Li said the policy showed the country's
determination and confidence in boosting the industry . Key technology Reverse osmosis technology
and other areas of development vital for desalination have been mastered , Li said. Osmosis
technology pushes water under high pressure through fine membranes, filtering the salt. Coupled with
the distilling process of high-pressure steam and evaporators, this means that the technology is, in more
ways than one, on tap. The country has 16 seawater desalination plants with a daily capacity of more
than 10,000 metric tons of fresh water, according to the NDRC. "Although we have made great progress
in technology, large-scale plants in China still depend on foreign technology," Li said. Desalination is
used in more than 150 countries to supply water to more than 200 million people. The Tianjin Institute
of Seawater Desalination and Multipurpose Utilization is strengthening international cooperation to
raise China's domestic seawater desalination technology and boost exports, Li said. There are concerns
about the potential environmental effects of large-scale seawater desalination plants, especially
wastewater discharges. Li said the government should launch an environmental assessment before any
major upgrade.
China solves- only lack of funds prevent success in the region
Peng 13- Jennie- consulting analyst in the Frost & Sullivan Environment (Water) Practice based in
Beijing, “Market Report: Developing Desalination in China”, WaterWorld,
http://www.waterworld.com/articles/wwi/print/volume-25/issue-6/regional-spotlight-asiapacific/market-report-developing-desalination.html // CS
A seismic increase in urbanisation and economic growth across China has led to more than half the
cities facing water scarcity issues. Previously associated with industrial projects, could desalination
technologies play a larger role in delivering water to municipalities? Jennie Peng provides insight
from a recent report: Global opportunities in the Chinese desalination market. China's economy
witnessed tremendous growth after the Chinese market opened up in the early 1990s. As a result,
the migration of people from rural locations to urban areas became more significant, especially over
the past five years. The expansion and development of 'Mega Cities' and some coastal cities in China
(eg. Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Guangzhou and Shenzhen) has led to a steeply increasing
requirement of human resource as well as natural resource supply. According to a study carried out
by the Ministry of Earth Surface Process of China, the urbanisation rate of coastal areas in China is
expected to reach 60%-65% by 2030. Considering the average urbanisation rate reached 46.6% in
2009, this is a large increase. In line with the rapid urbanisation progress, the coastal areas are now
also home to major industrial parks in China, including Tianjin Binhai New Area (TBNA) Chemical
Industrial Park, Yangtze River International Chemical Industrial Park (YCIP), Shanghai Chemical
Industry Park (SCIP) and the China-Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park (CS-SIP). Such relocation of
heavy industry from inland regions to designated development zones on the coast will ultimately
reduce environmental pressures on inland areas. As a result of planned power plants along the coast
- including renewable sources - there will inevitably be an increase of desalination capacity to copy
with the water demand . Nor is it additional power facilities straining China's water resources.
Governmental actions and resolutions A staggering 400 cities out of 668 in China face the
challenge of water scarcity . Coastal areas in particular are the most water stressed with capita
water resource of less than 500m3/year - the level that defines 'extremely scarce' by the standard of
the UN. These areas account for 13% of the land, 40% of the population, but contribute 60% of the
total GDP in China. It is expected that a combined demand gap of 16.6 to 25.5 billion cubic meters
for the four northern coastal provinces is foreseen by 2010. To cope with such water stresses, the
Chinese government has set out to measure daily water consumption rates for people in different
regions, to control and measure their water consumption with an incentive to avoid the over use of
water. The sustainable development plan of 'Water Conservation Society' has been integrated into
the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010), and will continue to be strengthened during 12th Five Year Plan
(2011-2015). Three important documents including 'China Ocean Agenda 21', 'The Outline of the
National Planning for Development of Ocean Economy' and 'The Special Plan for Seawater
utilisation' act as the guidelines for the Chinese seawater desalination industry. In particular, 'The
Special Plan for Seawater Utilisation' clearly states the current status of coastal water resource,
seawater utilisation and the potential for seawater desalination development, investment
environment and regional short-term (2010) and long-term (2020) targets for regional desalination
and seawater utilisation. Though the initiatives are positive, there is still a lack of supporting policies
when it comes to risk proof mechanisms, allocation of funds or subsidies, as well as mechanisms for
developing desalination projects. Market participants need more specific guidelines and regulations
to help operate businesses in this field. China desalination market - market players and
production capacity In China, legislation and development plans determine the direction of an
industry. As a relatively young market, the desalination market in China is somewhat centralised but
not fully regulated. Two national institutes – The Development Center of Water Treatment
Technology and The Institute of Seawater Desalination and Multipurpose Utilization are government
led entities, responsible for desalination research and project development. Key desalination project
developers active in the northern and eastern coastal areas are BEFESA, Hyflux, Aqualyng, IDE,
Zhonghe and Tsingtao Huaou cooperating with key desalination technology suppliers such as Dow,
Hydranautics, Norit, Toray, GE Water, Siemens Water, ERI, etc. There are 57 desalination projects
either completed or in progress with different capacities. The largest one in China now is the Tianjin
Seawater Desalination plant for Beijing Power Plant, developed by IDE with a production capacity of
200,000 m3/day. The largest municipal desalination plant is Tsingtao Befesa desalination plant with
production capacity of 100,000 m3/day. The current installed treatment capacity reached
approximately 0.43 million m3/day with 1.75 million m3/day under construction. This stands in stark
contrast to targets set out by 'The Special Plan for Seawater Desalination and Utilisation', which
called for the procurement of up to 1 million m3/day by the end of 2010, and up to 3 million m3/day
by 2020. Two key factors restraining market growth Key industrial sectors such as thermal/nuclear
power plants, steel and metal production plants, or centralised industrial parks take up more than
90% of the overall desalinated water in China. Therefore, desalination plants are normally medium
to large scale which need a tremendous amount of investment to support the technologies,
engineering and construction involved. So far, privatisation in the desalination plant market is in its
developing stage with 70-80% of the projects financed by the industry end users or the government.
Build-operate-transfer (BOT) or Design-build-operate (DBO) modes of business are expected to
become prevalent for more municipal desalination projects. So far, the government does not have
any direct incentives or funds for desalination projects. Financing is the biggest issue preventing
many technology suppliers to tap into the desalination market opportunities in China. It is estimated
that for a 50,000 m3/day desalination plant, the overall investment can be up to U$30 million or
more, which is almost three to four times the cost of a water treatment plant with the same
treatment capacity. Medium to small engineering or investment companies find it difficult to
develop such projects due to a lack of financial muscle. This leaves only companies with strong
financial support and experience in the desalination water business to step up and become
significant contenders in this market. Befesa and Aqualyng projects are good examples of innovative
financing practice, taking advantage of the 'non-recourse' financing mode that relies 70-100% on
local bank loan (Tsingtao Befesa Desalination Plant, 100,000 m3/day, 2009; Caofeidian Desalination
Plant, 50,000 m3/day, 2010). Low water tariffs is also another long-term issue that affects the
overall development of the water industry in China. Desalination will only be a financially viable
proposition to public utility supply when the water tariff reflects the investment and operation
costs. However, convergence between water tariffs and the cost of desalination is expected during
2011-2015. The current desalination cost is about U$0.6-0.9/m3. Compared to the cost of U$1.21.5/m3 for the South-to-North water diversion project, it is attractive for northern coastal areas to
relieve the water stress on such a reasonable cost. The cost of desalination rises when the network
system expand, so the issue of introducing desalinated seawater into Beijing is still pending for cost
evaluation and feasibility study. Technology trends Energy costs account for the highest proportion
in the overall desalination costs, mounting up to nearly 50%. On the plus side, technological
innovation continues to bring down the overall desalination cost. The relatively less energy intensive
technology at present is Reverse Osmosis (RO) which is 30% lower than Multi-stage-flash (MSF) and
15% lower than Multi-effect Distillation (MED) technologies. In the past four years, Reverse Osmosis
(RO) technology was the dominant technology applied in China desalination industry except in 2008,
when the biggest desalination project (200,000 m3/day) till then was initiated in Tianjin Beijiang
Power Plant using Multi-Effect Distillation (MED) technology. RO is more economically suitable for
end-user applications such as high-temperature gas cooled nuclear plants, thermal power plants,
chemical and petrochemical plants, and domestic municipal desalination plants when energy can be
guaranteed but has potential problems of membrane blockages and needs periodic cleaning. MED is
often applied in low-temperature nuclear plant, thermal power plant, steel and metal plants when
heat is sufficient to support the distillation. A mixed combination of RO and MED desalination in
power plants is another option when cooling, processing or even drinking water supply is needed for
the specific project. This hybrid desalination technology is often adopted in centralised industrial
parks. The Chinese government encourages domestic companies to pursue innovate desalination
technologies and increase the product quality, lifespan and services to catch up with the
international established suppliers and further reduce the overall desalination cost. At present, the
gap in cost between domestic and imported desalination equipment is still significant. Imported
equipment is still preferred by large scale project developers, largely on account of the assurance
related to stable quality and treatment efficiency. Growth opportunities The National Development
and Reform Committee announced six key energy-saving fields as the focus in the environmental
sector for the 12th Five-Year-Plan. Among them, energy recovery devices and low energy
consumption desalination technologies are expected to receive financial support. The central
government is encouraging the development of renewable energy projects (wind-powered/nuclearpowered plants, etc.), in which desalination can be adopted as auxiliary water supply and treatment
system. This is to use either the abundant power or heat to generate desalinated water and
integrate the energy and water recycling system. Desalination can then benefit from the special
fund allocated to renewable energy industry by the Chinese government. Though detailed policies
for the desalination industry are yet to be confirmed for the 12th five year plan (2011-2015), it can
be expected that favorable policies will become clear and will be translated into city-level goals with
regulations on both privatisation and long-term risk proof. Moving forward The Chinese desalination
market is young with what can be described as immature regulation and market environment.
Several demonstrative projects have been established in Northern China coastal areas, which
significantly enhance confidence for the government and project developers in the wide adoption of
desalination in water scarce coastal areas of China. The Chinese government is working on
establishing guidelines and focused directions to help the market grow in a healthy competitive
environment. Water tariff is yet to be adjusted which can really recoup with the project investment
and long-term operation cost.
China solves desalination- funding key
Carella 12- Chiara- Corporate Communications – Europe for Frost and Sullivan, “Water Stress in China:
Desalination Takes Centre Stage, According to Frost & Sullivan”, 02/22/12, PR Newswire,
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/water-stress-in-china-desalination-takes-centre-stageaccording-to-frost--sullivan-139946643.html // CS
LONDON, Feb. 22, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- With China's tremendous growth, the migration of people from
rural places into urban areas is becoming more significant. The expansion and the development of Mega
Cities and of some coastal cities in China (eg. Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) led to
a steeply increasing requirement of human resource as well as natural resource supply. Today, 400 cities
out of 668 in China are faced with the challenge of water scarcity . The Chinese government is taking
different steps and actions to solve the problem and desalination certainly is one of the key solutions .
But what is the potential of the desalination industry in China? Frost & Sullivan analyst Jennie Peng
explains: "The Chinese desalination market is still very young with immature regulation and market
environment. Several projects have been established in Northern China coastal areas which significantly
enhance the confidence for the government and project developers in the wide adoption of desalination
in water scarce coastal areas of China. However, there still is lack of supporting policies in terms of risk
proof mechanisms, allocation of funds or subsidies, and measurement for development of desalination
projects." Three important documents: China Ocean Agenda 21, The Outline of the National Planning for
Development of Ocean Economy and The Special Plan for Seawater utilisation set the guidelines for the
Chinese seawater desalination industry. Particularly, The Special Plan for Seawater Utilisation clearly
states the potential for seawater desalination development, investment environment, and regional
targets for desalination and seawater utilisation. Furthermore, the 12th five year plan on seawater
utilisation is expected to issue more up-to-date development plans on a city-level next year. The central
government is encouraging the development of renewable energy projects (wind-powered/nuclearpowered plants, etc.), in which desalination can be adopted as auxiliary water supply and treatment
system. This is to utilise either the abundant power or heat to generate desalinated water and integrate
the energy and water recycling system. Desalination can then benefit from the special fund allocated to
the renewable energy industry by the Chinese government. "Though detailed policies for the
desalination industry are yet to be confirmed for the 12th five year plan (2011-2015), it can be expected
that favourable policies will become clear and will be translated into city-level goals with regulations on
both privatisation and long-term risk proof," states Jennie Peng. The Chinese government is pushing
domestic companies to pursue innovative desalination technologies and increase the product quality,
lifespan and services. This is seen as important to catch up with the international established suppliers
and further reduce the overall desalination cost. At present, the gap in cost between domestic and
imported desalination equipment is still significant. Imported equipment is still preferred by large scale
project developers, mainly on account of the assurance related to stable quality and treatment
efficiency. But along with the growth in the industry, localisation is the trend. The localisation rate of
desalination products/systems (the ratio of production/supply from local manufacturers or technology
suppliers vs. overall supplies in China) is about 60% now, and this rate is targeted to reach 90% by 2020
Desalination solves
Doom 04/15/14- Justin- reporter for Bloomberg News in New York, “Desalination Plant to Provide
Third of Beijing’s Water”, Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-15/desalinationplant-to-provide-third-of-beijing-s-water.html // CS
One-third of the tap water used in Beijing in five years will be desalinated from the sea to make it
potable and boost clean supplies, according to state media. Beijing Enterprises (371) Water Group, the
biggest publicly traded water-treatment company in China, is developing the reverse-osmosis project in
the Caofeidian district of Tangshan in Hebei province, the Global Times reported. The city will get about
33 percent of its water daily from the treatment facility. The company said it’s planning to spend 7
billion yuan ($1.1 billion) on the plant and 10 billion yuan more on a pipeline to transport the water.
Beijing Enterprises Water started desalinating seawater in 2012. Beijing has been battling drought for 15
years as China works to clean its water and air of pollutants. Xinhua News Agency reported April 12 that
investigators traced the source of an oil pipeline leak that contaminated the water supply of 2.4 million
people in Lanzhou to a unit run by China National Petroleum Corp., the latest health- and safety-related
mishap in the most-populous nation.
Key to Chinese economy
Desalination pre-requisite to China socio-economic development
Zhou and Tol 03- Yuan- Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Center for Marine and
Climate Research, Hamburg University, Germany, Richard- Professor of economics at the University
of Sussex. “Implications of desalination to water resources in China - an economic perspective”, pdf,
http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/DesalinationFNU22.pdf //
CS
China is a country with severe water shortages. Water becomes scarcer due to population growth,
industrialization and urbanization. Recent studies show that by the next 50 years water resources
per capita will go down to around 1700 m3 , which is the threshold of severe water scarcity .
Especially in North China, water shortage has become a critical constraint factor for the
socioeconomic development in the long run. To solve or eliminate water shortage problems,
seawater desalination draws more and more attention as an alternative water supply source . The
objective of the study is to assess the potential of desalination as a viable alternate water source for
China through analysis of the costs of desalination, the water demand and supply situation as well
as water pricing practices in China. Based on the investment costs and estimated operation and
maintenance costs, an economic appraisal for the costs of desalination for two main processes, MSF
and RO, has been conducted. The study shows that there is a decline of unit cost of desalination
over time and the average unit cost of RO process has been lower than that of MSF process. A unit
cost of 0.6 $/m3 for desalting brackish water and 1.0 $/m3 for seawater are suggested to be
appropriate for the potential application of desalination in China. The future trends and challenges
associated with water shortages and water prices are discussed, leading to conclusions and
recommendations regarding the role of desalination as a feasible source of water for the future.
China is a country with great variations in the spatial and temporal distribution of its water
resources. There is more than sufficient water in the south and deficient water in the north. North
China has suffered from water shortages since a couple of decades, and due to the population
growth and economic development, this region has now reached the level of severe water scarcity .
Poor water condition has been a factor restricting the socio-economic development and causing
environmental deterioration. Traditional water supply could not help to provide more water to meet
growing demands. The South-North Water Transfer Scheme attempts to ease water problems by
transporting water from the Yangtze River in the south to rivers in the north, which is the choice out
of no alternatives. The project is by far the largest infrastructure construction of China in terms of
investment and complication [1]. However, the improvements of desalination technology may
pave the way to more accessible water . China’s population and economy are concentrated in the
coastal zone, which makes desalination a good alternative source of water as many coastal cities
face water shortage . This study analyses the implications of desalination to water resources in
China from an economic perspective in order to answer the question: “Is it economically and
practically feasible to apply desalination in China?” Since desalination plants have not been
constructed on a reasonable scale in China, the costs for two main desalination processes, MSF and
RO are analyzed, using data available for desalination plants all over the world. The research also
evaluates the water situation and future projections of China. The results of the study provide an
overview of the projected costs of desalination, current and future water shortage in China, and
potential applications of desalination in China. It also serves as a basis for developing governmental
plans, strategies, and policies for future applications of desalination.
Desalination of benefit to sustainable development in China
The Economist 02/09/13- “Desalination Costly drops”,
http://www.economist.com/news/china/21571437-removing-salt-seawater-might-help-slake-somenorthern-chinas-thirst-it-comes-high // CS
CHINESE officials are fond of grandiose engineering projects. After more than a decade of toil, one
of the biggest since the construction of the Great Wall is close to achieving what they like to call a
“decisive victory”. In coming months, canals and pipelines hundreds of kilometres long will bring
water from the Yangzi River basin to the parched north. But growing demand is forcing officials to
look for other sources. A promising one, they believe, is the sea. The Beijiang Power and
Desalination Plant lies a few hundred metres from the coast; its chimney and two cooling towers
dominate a desolate expanse of salt farms. The $4.1 billion facility is one of the pet projects of the
government in the port city of Tianjin, a manufacturing and logistics hub that, like nearby Beijing,
enjoys provincial-level status and is one of China’s fastest-growing regions. The Beijiang plant began
generating electricity in 2009, and the following year became China’s first large-scale supplier of
desalinated water through a city main. For Tianjin at least, the plant offers a ray of hope. The city,
like most of northern China, is desperately dry. Local water resources per person are less than 7%
of the national average. By the middle of this year the first of three planned water-diversion
projects bringing water to the north from the Yangzi basin is due to open for trial use. This easterly
route (see map), which is more than 1,100 kilometres (700 miles) long, was partly intended to help
satisfy Tianjin’s thirst, but its construction has suffered years of delays. The project will initially
provide water to the provinces of Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui. No date has yet been set for Tianjin
to tap in. The city will not get its first taste of Yangzi-basin water until the middle of the three routes
is ready, which officials say will be late in 2014. This is also several years later than planned (moving
330,000 people to make way for the project has proved arduous). Even when the water flows into
Tianjin, at an initial rate of about 1 billion cubic metres a year, it will still not satisfy demand . The
government news agency, Xinhua, says Tianjin will need an additional 600m cubic metres a year.
The delays, shortcomings and mounting costs of the water-diversion scheme (more than $34 billion
spent so far) have encouraged officials to look at other solutions. China has been a slow starter in
desalination, but in recent years the country has become one of the world’s fastest-growing
markets for the technology. This does not come cheap, but the government can lean on stateowned enterprises such as SDIC, which operates the Beijiang plant, to shoulder the cost. A year ago
the government said China would produce up to 2.6m cubic metres of desalinated water daily by
2015, a more than fourfold increase. That would be a tiny share of China’s unmet demand, but
nearly the amount that Tianjin expects to receive from the diversion scheme’s middle route. Dry
days China is still heavily dependent on imported technology. The Beijiang plant uses Israeli
equipment to distil the seawater, but officials say China’s own technology will reach world standards
in the next few years. Tan Peidong, a deputy general manager of the Beijiang facility, predicts that
this will help reduce costs. He also expects help from rising water tariffs, which China has long kept
below market levels in order to protect consumers. Within a couple of years, he says, Beijiang will
begin turning a profit on its water, which by next year it will be able to produce at a rate of 200,000
cubic metres a day, twice today’s capacity (though current output is much less). Mr Tan does not see
any threat to his business from next year’s arrival of diverted water. Not only will there remain a
shortage, but his water will be cheaper to supply to the grid than diverted water from the Yangzi
basin. A cubic metre of water from the plant costs about 8 yuan ($1.30) to produce—slightly more
than the price paid by industrial users, but 60% higher than the tariff for households. Mr Tan says a
cubic metre of Yangzi-basin water will cost about 10 yuan. He says he is “very hopeful” that some of
his output will be piped to Beijing. Supplying desalinated water to the capital will still cost about the
same or only a little more than channelling in water from the south, he reckons. In its first five-year
plan for the industry, in December, the government insisted that desalination was “of benefit to
sustainable development ”. It was better, it argued, than sucking more water out of the north’s
fast-diminishing aquifers. That is surely right. Yet desalinating water uses enormous amounts of
energy, which comes mainly from highly polluting coal (though Beijiang’s advanced technology is
more efficient than that found in standard power plants). And diverting water from the river basin
could exacerbate the impact of droughts in the south. No wonder that environmentalists complain
that the government is relying on costly remedies, and doing too little to encourage conservation.
Desalinating the ocean becomes is a key imperative in China
Rooney 13– Tom- President and Chief Executive Officer at Energy Recovery Inc., 11/5/13, “China’s
Growth Depends on Sensitivity to the Water-Energy Nexus”, The energy Recovery Blog,
http://blog.energyrecovery.com/2013/11/chinas-growth-depends-on-sensitivity-to-the-waterenergy-nexus/ // CS
Our team was in China last week for two major events: the International Desalination Association
(IDA) World Congress in Tianjin, followed by the Bloomberg Leadership Forum in Shanghai. We
rounded out our trip with a visit to one of our oil & gas customers, Sinopec. We toured its gas
processing plant in Songnan, located in a remote area of Northern China, where we observed the
deployment of one of our newest energy recovery devices. The trip was full of important networking
and business development opportunities. To start, the IDA World Congress is the principal
conference in the global desalination industry. It brings together technology leaders across the
industry to share their advancements in desalination and exchange ideas for solving global water
issues. This year, one of the hottest topics was how desalination technologies, including energy
recovery devices and membranes, are playing integral roles in renewable energies, such as making
osmotic power a viable energy source. As you can read in one of our recent blog posts, Energy
Recovery is engaged in pioneering osmotic power efforts with GS Engineering & Construction
Corporation, which is developing a pilot osmotic power plant in Korea. The interest and momentum
that we saw surrounding osmotic power at the IDA World Congress was a validation of our
partnership and business initiative. After the IDA World Congress in Tianjin, we traveled to Shanghai
(home to one of our international offices) to speak at the Bloomberg Leadership Forum, which
included thought leaders from some of Asia’s leading energy and technology firms. Leaders
examined business models for clean energy and the role of international companies in helping to
guide China’s phenomenal growth. We came away from the Bloomberg event convinced that the
growth potential for both clean water and clean energy in China will remain strong well into the
future. China’s rapidly escalating water and energy demands are two of the country’s most acute
and well-documented challenges. The rapid increase in demand is primarily driven by the country’s
unprecedented economic growth, with GDP quadrupling over the past decade. China’s increased
industrialization and urbanization have amplified the country’s power and water requirements.
What’s more, industrialization has also increased pollution, creating a need to further reduce carbon
emissions and produce fresh, clean water. China’s per capita consumption of water has spiked
dramatically as a direct result of economic growth. Unfortunately, China is not naturally a water-rich
country. China is home to 20% of the world’s population, yet has only 7% percent of the world’s
water supply. In comparison, 6% of the world’s population lives in the U.S., but we have 13% of the
world’s natural water supply. As China continues to grow its GDP, you can expect its population to
gradually begin to use water at rates similar to other industrialized economies, such as the United
States. In the United States, we consume roughly 13 times as much water per capita as China. China
simply cannot allow its water consumption to rise to that of the United States because of its dearth
of a naturally existing water supply. That is where desalinating the oceans becomes a key
imperative for China . These issues underscore the importance of paying very close attention to the
water-energy nexus in China — that is, developing more efficient ways to use energy to provide
water, and finding ways to use less water to create energy. As you’d probably expect, the
importance of the water-energy nexus makes China a chief market for Energy Recovery. Our
prospects are improving as the Chinese government is increasingly looking to desalination to solve
its water challenges. It is aiming to achieve desalination capacity of 2.2 million to 2.6 million cubic
meters per day by 2015, according to its 12th Five-Year Plan. That will require substantial growth
and investment in new desalination plants and technology , such as ours. Already, we have over
90% of the desalination market in China, with devices that help supply an estimated half a million
cubic meters of water daily. We have a strong and growing relationship with Chinese desalination
authorities, who are recognizing the innovation we are bringing to their country’s water supply
infrastructure. More on this can be found in our video below, which features leaders from Hangzhou
Water Treatment Technology Development Center, Asian Tec Limited, China Association of Water
Enterprises, and other leading technical experts on desalination in China.
Desalination key to Chinese economic development and environment
Watts 01/24/11- Jonathan- Latin America correspondent for The Guardian. Formerly Asia
environment, China, Japan, Korea and Mongolia correspondent, and the author of When a Billion
Chinese Jump: How China Will Save the World - or Destroy It, “Can the sea solve China’s water
crisis?”, The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jan/24/china-water-crisis
// CS
The highest-tech effort yet to ease China's water crisis sits between a wide, flat grid of salt farms
and two giant cooling towers that rise up from a vast expanse of reclaimed land on the western
shore of the Bohai Sea. Odourless, quiet and billowing clear white smoke into a sharp blue sky, the
Beijiang desalination and power plant contrast sharply with the tangled pipes, dirty chimneys and
foul waterways more usually associated with China's traditional industrial landscape. The 12.1bn
yuan (£1.1bn) facility is the most advanced of a series of showcase megaprojects rising up in the
Tianjin-Binhai development zone. This stretch of coastline is at the forefront of the government's
ambitious and costly attempt to use science and technology to shift China on to a more sustainable
path of development. A 10-minute drive away, a cluster of cranes and half-completed towers marks
the site of the country's most ambitious eco-city project, which aims to create a community the size
of Bristol from scratch within 10 years. Further on, another giant construction site marks the
emergence of what looks set to be the world's first industrial-scale experiment of cutting-edge coal
gasification and carbon-capture technology. But while those projects are works in progress, the
desalination plant is already operational, and as such gives an indication of the enormous financial
and technical challenges facing China's attempted transition. Engineers from the operating
company – the State Development and Investment Corporation – say the facility is the biggest and
most advanced of its type in Asia. It combines a Chinese ultra-supercritical power plant with stateof-the-art Israeli desalination equipment to generate 4,000MW of coal-fired electricity and supply
200,000 cubic metres of salt-free potable water from the sea. To avoid the usual environmental
problems associated with desalination, the plant collects – and sells – the salt derived from the
seawater, rather than discharging it back into the ocean. While other plants are energy-intensive,
Tianjin's engineers boast of a more efficient use of coal, because excess steam that would otherwise
be emitted from the thermal power plant is instead run through pipes in seawater distillation
chambers. But it is leaking money. Since it began operations last April, the plant has never run at
more than a quarter of capacity. The plant's owner has yet to sign supply deals with three local
utilities. "The plant is not profitable at present. But as the economy develops, its value will
increase," said Guo Qigang, the general manager. " Desalination provides value for society, it
bolsters economic development and contributes to the environment because it prevents
overdrawing of underground water. " As is the case for the one-third of Chinese wind turbines that
are not yet connected to the grid, supply from the desalination plant is being partly held up by the
shortcomings of the distribution infrastructure. Unless extra minerals are added, the purified water
can damage existing pipes, and often appears yellow when it comes out of the taps. But the main
problem is cost . Companies are reluctant to switch from the cheaper water that can be pumped
from rivers, lakes and aquifers, even though these traditional sources are straining from decades of
overutilisation. The price of a cubic metre of desalinated water is 8 yuan, compared to the normal 5
yuan tariff in Tianjin. Industry sources say the utilities are also worried that once they accept
expensive desalinated water, there will be no going back. "They don't want to give up the old
resources because they know they won't get permission to use them again," said Wang Shichang,
head of the desalination research centre at Tianjin University. "But the delay won't last long. China is
working on plans to further develop desalination, because we face scarce water resources and
rising demand ." Tianjin has a chronic shortage. Drought, overuse and pollution have left its
population of 10 million with just a 10th of the water of the average global citizen. Vast expanses of
northern China, including Beijing, face much the same problem, with an accumulated water deficit
of 200bn cubic metres. Until now, it has been made up by the steady depletion of non-renewable
aquifers. To head off a looming crisis, the government is resorting to ever more desperate and
expensive measures, including the world's biggest hydro-engineering project – the South-North
Water Diversion Project – which aims to divert part of the flow of the Yangtze along three massive
channels. This scheme has been plagued by contamination fears, cost overruns and resettlement
difficulties that have left it several years behind schedule and unlikely to undercut desalination on
price.
Desalination cost competitive- economically feasible
Zhou and Tol 03- Yuan- Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Center for Marine and
Climate Research, Hamburg University, Germany, Richard- Professor of economics at the University
of Sussex. “Implications of desalination to water resources in China - an economic perspective”, pdf,
http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/DesalinationFNU22.pdf //
CS
Desalination is becoming a solution for water scarcity in a number of arid countries. For the
potential application of desalination in China, the following conclusions can be drawn from this
study: 1. Improved desalination technologies and accumulated management experiences have been
playing important roles to reduce the unit cost of water noticeably over time. To date, the unit cost
of desalted water using MSF process has been reduced ten times since the 1960s. The average
present unit cost is about 0.9 $/m3 . RO technology has developed rapidly in recent decades, which
makes the costs lower than MSF process for a moderate capacity. Based on this study, the average
unit cost of RO process has declined to around 0.7 $/m3 , which is very competitive for traditional
water resources . The technological innovation will still bring down the cost in the future. 2. Based
on the reduction trend of the desalination costs in the world, the unit cost of 1.0 $/m3 for seawater
desalination using MSF process is suggested for potential applications in China. In addition, a unit
cost of 0.6 $/m3 for brackish and wastewater using RO process and 1.0 $/m3 for seawater would be
appropriate. As the technology develops, RO process would be a favorable choice for both seawater
and brackish water desalination in the country. 3. Water demand and supply projections indicate
that water shortage will become ever severe within the next 50 years in China. Especially in North
China, although taking into account water to be transferred under the scheme, water deficiency is
estimated to be 16 km3 /yr in 2050. This amount of water can be potentially provided by
application of brackish-, waste- and seawater desalination . Particularly for coastal cities,
desalination can provide water for industries that do not have a high requirement of water quality.
Desalination is therefore suggested to be a strong potential for eliminating water shortages in the
future. 4. To apply desalination in China, the water price is the major obstacle. Current average
water price is still lower compared to the costs of desalination. In the country, water is not charged
based on the principle of market economy, rather heavily subsided by the government. To eliminate
water shortage in the future, water pricing will be an effective economic instrument to conserve
water and raise awareness. Governmental policy should facilitate the pricing reforms and step by
step fill the gaps between costs of desalted water and actual water prices. In conclusion,
desalination can provide reliable water supply and will be ultimately economically feasible ,
therefore it is requested to invest in and undertake consistently research on selecting planting sites
and brine disposal in the near future. However, one thing should be noticed is that the costs
presented here are resulted from simplified models. Thus planning an actual plant under a specific
circumstance needs to conduct the final assessment of costs accurately that are based on more
substantive information and specific data.
Key to solve Water scarcity
Desalination will triple water availability in China
Hatton 06/10/ 13- Celia- BBC News Correspondent based in Beijing, “China banks on desalination
to help ease water woes”, BBC News, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-22815145 // CS
It is 11:00 in the village of Nanxinzhuang, in the mountain range just west of Beijing. In the centre of
the village, a group of young men are relaxing in the sun and chatting with passing schoolchildren
who are heading home for lunch. But nearby, farmer Wang Yongxian does not have time to relax. A
severe shortage of water in the village means that tap water is provided for just four hours a day. Mr
Wang must fill pots and buckets with enough water to for his wife and four-year-old granddaughter
to use. He also needs water to irrigate his small patch of land, where he grows onions. "When I was
young, we had spring water to grow walnuts and pears," the 60-year-old explained. But that
changed when the spring dried up in the 1980s. Since then, the village's ground water has also
started to dry up, shrinking from seven wells to two. " Drinking water has long been a problem for
us, and we can't grow crops . We're dependent on the weather," he explained. Parched land Wang
Yongxian's village lies in the heart of a large region of north-eastern China that is growing more
desperate for water every year. Millions are pouring into the capital, Beijing, and the neighbouring
metropolis of Tianjin, leaving the provinces around those cities bone dry. This arid region is on a par
globally with chronically dry countries like Syria and Jordan, according to the United Nations Food
and Agriculture Organisation. China's central government is hoping to ease the region's water woes
by turning to a resource right on their shores: salt water from the Bohai Sea. Over the next five
years, at least $3.3bn (£2.1bn) will be used to build desalination plants along the eastern coast. The
Chinese government has already invested tens of billions of dollars in other plans to solve the
drought crisis, even redirecting water from China's wet south to the parched north. However, that
plan will only address part of the problem, leaving the authorities to search for additional fixes.
Desalination will triple the amount of processed seawater available for human use by 2015 . In a
new industrial zone just outside Tianjin lies a desalination plant that is said to be a model for the
rest. Built on the water's edge, it is a hybrid desalination plan and power generator, both fuelled by
coal. At the moment, the desalination plant is only processing a fraction of what it could.
Desalinated water from the plant costs 30% more than regular city water. Municipal buyers are not
lining up to buy the plant's water, though that is a temporary problem, explained Guo Qigang, the
plant's manager. " Fresh water is one of our most important natural resources. If it is very scarce,
it becomes indispensable, " he explained. Tianjin, Beijing and the surrounding regions are so
desperate for water, the reasoning goes, that it is inevitable that desalinated water will be
necessary. The billions already spent on this plant are not a gamble, they are a sure-fire investment.
'Quick fix' And that is a disappointment to environmentalists who are critical of the concept of
desalination. "Desalination uses lots of energy to produce filters, and then to process and transport
the clean water," argued Zhang Junfeng, a Beijing environmental activist. But the Tianjin plant is
relatively environmentally friendly compared to other desalination technologies, said plant boss Guo
Qigang. "We produce drinkable water with a kind of recycling model," he said. "Desalination uses
the remaining heat from the power plant, so that it makes use of waste energy." Highlyconcentrated salt water is usually a nasty by-product of the desalination process, but Mr Guo says
that in Tianjin, the salt is processed into industrial grade salt.
Desalination relieves water shortage in China
Wang Yiqiong 4/14/ 14- Correspondent for the Global Times, “Seawater to supply Beijing in
2019”, the Global Times, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/854547.shtml // CS
Desalinated seawater will supply a third of Beijingers' domestic tap water starting 2019 , a city
water company announced on Monday. A million tons of water should fulfill one-third of the daily
needs of Beijing residents, said Wang Xiaoshui, desalination department director at Beijing
Enterprises Water Group. The water costs 8 yuan ($1.28) a ton, the Beijing Times reported. The
capital city's domestic tap water currently costs about 4 yuan per ton. The company researched and
developed its own reverse osmosis membrane technique last year and will use it for a 1-million-ton
desalination project under construction in Caofeidian district of Tangshan in Hebei Province to be
completed by 2019, explained Deputy General Manager Liu Fushun. The company plans to spend 7
billion yuan on the desalination works and 10 billion yuan on 270 kilometers of pipeline. Beijing
Enterprises Water Group started desalinating seawater in March 2012, transporting 50,000 tons of
freshwater from the Caofeidian coastal land reclamation project about 200 kilometers from Beijing
and 120 kilometers from Tianjin. Ocean currents make the water cleaner and better for
desalination in Caofeidian than other areas of the Bohai Gulf. A chemical plant takes the water
and a saltworks processes the salt, the company said. Beijing has been suffering drought since
1999 , China News Week quoted Beijing Waterworks Group as saying. The city's per capita water
consumption is 100 cubic meters, below the international water-shortage level of 500 cubic meters,
China Economic Weekly reported. Since the Hebei section of the North-South Water Diversion
Project began operations in September 2008, 1.5 billion cubic meters of water have been moved to
Beijing from the province's four reservoirs. Desalination can help relieve the water shortage, Ma
Jun, director of the Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs, told the Global Times, but can also
cause pollution. "In the long term, the eventual solution is to save and recycle used water at the
consumer end," Ma said.
China key to solve water shortage
Yardley 07- Jim- became the Rome Bureau Chief for The New York Times in September 2013, after
spending the previous decade in China, India and Bangladesh, 09/28/07, “Beneath Booming Cities,
China’s Future Is Drying Up”, the New York Times,
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/28/world/asia/28water.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1& // CS
SHIJIAZHUANG, China — Hundreds of feet below ground, the primary water source for this provincial
capital of more than two million people is steadily running dry. The underground water table is sinking
about four feet a year. Municipal wells have already drained two-thirds of the local groundwater. Above
ground, this city in the North China Plain is having a party. Economic growth topped 11 percent last year.
Population is rising. A new upscale housing development is advertising waterfront property on lakes
filled with pumped groundwater. Another half-built complex, the Arc de Royal, is rising above one of the
lowest points in the city’s water table. “People who are buying apartments aren’t thinking about
whether there will be water in the future,” said Zhang Zhongmin, who has tried for 20 years to raise
public awareness about the city’s dire water situation. For three decades, water has been indispensable
in sustaining the rollicking economic expansion that has made China a world power. Now, China’s
galloping, often wasteful style of economic growth is pushing the country toward a water crisis. Water
pollution is rampant nationwide, while water scarcity has worsened severely in north China — even as
demand keeps rising everywhere. China is scouring the world for oil, natural gas and minerals to keep its
economic machine humming. But trade deals cannot solve water problems. Water usage in China has
quintupled since 1949, and leaders will increasingly face tough political choices as cities, industry and
farming compete for a finite and unbalanced water supply. One example is grain. The Communist Party,
leery of depending on imports to feed the country, has long insisted on grain self-sufficiency. But
growing so much grain consumes huge amounts of underground water in the North China Plain, which
produces half the country’s wheat. Some scientists say farming in the rapidly urbanizing region should
be restricted to protect endangered aquifers. Yet doing so could threaten the livelihoods of millions of
farmers and cause a spike in international grain prices. For the Communist Party, the immediate
challenge is the prosaic task of forcing the world’s most dynamic economy to conserve and protect
clean water . Water pollution is so widespread that regulators say a major incident occurs every
other day . Municipal and industrial dumping has left sections of many rivers “unfit for human contact.”
Cities like Beijing and Tianjin have shown progress on water conservation, but China’s economy
continues to emphasize growth. Industry in China uses 3 to 10 times more water, depending on the
product, than industries in developed nations. “We have to now focus on conservation,” said Ma Jun, a
prominent environmentalist. “We don’t have much extra water resources. We have the same resources
and much bigger pressures from growth.” In the past, the Communist Party has reflexively turned to
engineering projects to address water problems, and now it is reaching back to one of Mao’s unrealized
plans: the $62 billion South-to-North Water Transfer Project to funnel more than 12 trillion gallons
northward every year along three routes from the Yangtze River basin, where water is more abundant.
The project, if fully built, would be completed in 2050. The eastern and central lines are already under
construction; the western line, the most disputed because of environmental concerns, remains in the
planning stages. The North China Plain undoubtedly needs any water it can get. An economic
powerhouse with more than 200 million people, it has limited rainfall and depends on groundwater for
60 percent of its supply. Other countries, like Yemen, India, Mexico and the United States, have aquifers
that are being drained to dangerously low levels. But scientists say those below the North China Plain
may be drained within 30 years. “There’s no uncertainty,” said Richard Evans, a hydrologist who has
worked in China for two decades and has served as a consultant to the World Bank and China’s Ministry
of Water Resources. “ The rate of decline is very clear, very well documented. They will run out of
groundwater if the current rate continues. ” Outside Shijiazhuang, construction crews are working on
the transfer project’s central line, which will provide the city with infusions of water on the way to the
final destination, Beijing. For many of the engineers and workers, the job carries a patriotic gloss. Yet
while many scientists agree that the project will provide an important influx of water, they also say it will
not be a cure-all. No one knows how much clean water the project will deliver; pollution problems are
already arising on the eastern line. Cities and industry will be the beneficiaries of the new water, but the
impact on farming is limited. Water deficits are expected to remain. “Many people are asking the
question: What can they do?” said Zheng Chunmiao, a leading international groundwater expert. “They
just cannot continue with current practices. They have to find a way to bring the problem under
control.” A Drying Region On a drizzly, polluted morning last April, Wang Baosheng steered his Chinesemade sport utility vehicle out of a shopping center on the west side of Beijing for a three-hour
southbound commute that became a tour of the water crisis on the North China Plain. Mr. Wang travels
several times a month to Shijiazhuang, where he is chief engineer overseeing construction of three miles
of the central line of the water transfer project. A light rain splattered the windshield, and he recited a
Chinese proverb about the preciousness of spring showers for farmers. He also noticed one dead river
after another as his S.U.V. glided over dusty, barren riverbeds: the Yongding, the Yishui, the Xia and,
finally, the Hutuo. “You see all these streams with bridges, but there is no water,” he said. A century or
so ago, the North China Plain was a healthy ecosystem, scientists say. Farmers digging wells could strike
water within eight feet. Streams and creeks meandered through the region. Swamps, natural springs
and wetlands were common. Today, the region, comparable in size to New Mexico, is parched . Roughly
five-sixths of the wetlands have dried up, according to one study. Scientists say that most natural
streams or creeks have disappeared. Several rivers that once were navigable are now mostly dust and
brush. The largest natural freshwater lake in northern China, Lake Baiyangdian, is steadily contracting
and besieged with pollution . What happened? The list includes misguided policies, unintended
consequences, a population explosion, climate change and, most of all, relentless economic growth. In
1963, a flood paralyzed the region, prompting Mao to construct a flood-control system of dams,
reservoirs and concrete spillways. Flood control improved but the ecological balance was altered as the
dams began choking off rivers that once flowed eastward into the North China Plain. The new reservoirs
gradually became major water suppliers for growing cities like Shijiazhuang. Farmers, the region’s
biggest water users, began depending almost exclusively on wells. Rainfall steadily declined in what
some scientists now believe is a consequence of climate change. Before, farmers had compensated for
the region’s limited annual rainfall by planting only three crops every two years. But underground water
seemed limitless and government policies pushed for higher production, so farmers began planting a
second annual crop, usually winter wheat, which requires a lot of water. By the 1970s, studies show, the
water table was already falling. Then Mao’s death and the introduction of market-driven economic
reforms spurred a farming renaissance. Production soared, and rural incomes rose. The water table kept
falling, further drying out wetlands and rivers. Around 1900, Shijiazhuang was a collection of farming
villages. By 1950, the population had reached 335,000. This year, the city has roughly 2.3 million people
with a metropolitan area population of 9 million. More people meant more demand for water, and the
city now heavily pumps groundwater. The water table is falling more than a meter a year. Today, some
city wells must descend more than 600 feet to reach clean water. In the deepest drilling areas, steep
downward funnels have formed in the water table that are known as “cones of depression.”
Groundwater quality also has worsened. Wastewater, often untreated, is now routinely dumped into
rivers and open channels. Mr. Zheng, the water specialist, said studies showed that roughly threequarters of the region’s entire aquifer system was now suffering some level of contamination. “ There
will be no sustainable development in the future if there is no groundwater supply, ” said Liu
Changming, a leading Chinese hydrology expert and a senior scholar at the Chinese Academy of
Sciences. A National Project Three decades ago, when Deng Xiaoping shifted China from Maoist ideology
and fixated the country on economic growth, a generation of technocrats gradually took power and
began rebuilding a country that ideology had almost destroyed. Today, the top leaders of the
Communist Party — including Hu Jintao, China’s president and party chief — were trained as engineers.
Though not members of the political elite, Wang Baosheng, the engineer on the water transfer project,
and his colleague Yang Guangjie are of the same background. This spring, at the site outside
Shijiazhuang, bulldozers clawed at a V-shaped cut in the dirt while teams of workers in blue jumpsuits
and orange hard hats smoothed wet cement over a channel that will be almost as wide as a football
field. “I’ve been to the Hoover Dam, and I really admire the people who built that,” said Mr. Yang, the
project manager. “At the time, they were making a huge contribution to the development of their
country.” He compared China’s transfer project to the water diversion system devised for southern
California in the last century. “Maybe we are like America in the 1920s and 1930s,” he said. “We’re
building the country.” China’s disadvantage, compared with the United States, is that it has a smaller
water supply yet almost five times as many people. China has about 7 percent of the world’s water
resources and roughly 20 percent of its population. It also has a severe regional water imbalance, with
about four-fifths of the water supply in the south. Mao’s vision of borrowing water from the Yangtze for
the north had an almost profound simplicity, but engineers and scientists spent decades debating the
project before the government approved it, partly out of desperation, in 2002. Today, demand is far
greater in the north , and water quality has badly deteriorated in the south. Roughly 41 percent of
China’s wastewater is now dumped in the Yangtze, raising concerns that siphoning away clean water
northward will exacerbate pollution problems in the south. The upper reaches of the central line are
expected to be finished in time to provide water to Beijing for the Olympic Games next year. Mr. Evans,
the World Bank consultant, called the complete project “essential” but added that success would
depend on avoiding waste and efficiently distributing the water. Mr. Liu, the scholar and hydrologist,
said that farming would get none of the new water and that cities and industry must quickly improve
wastewater treatment . Otherwise, he said, cities will use the new water to dump more polluted
wastewater. Shijiazhuang now dumps untreated wastewater into a canal that local farmers use to
irrigate fields. For years, Chinese officials thought irrigation efficiency was the answer for reversing
groundwater declines. Eloise Kendy, a hydrology expert with The Nature Conservancy who has studied
the North China Plain, said that farmers had made improvements but that the water table had kept
sinking. Ms. Kendy said the spilled water previously considered “wasted” had actually soaked into the
soil and recharged the aquifer. Efficiency erased that recharge. Farmers also used efficiency gains to
irrigate more land. Ms. Kendy said scientists had discovered that the water table was dropping because
of water lost by evaporation and transpiration from the soil, plants and leaves. This lost water is a major
reason the water table keeps dropping, scientists say. Farmers have no choice. They drill deeper.
Difficult Choices Ahead For many people living in the North China Plain, the notion of a water crisis
seems distant. No one is crawling across a parched desert in search of an oasis. But every year, the
water table keeps dropping. Nationally, groundwater usage has almost doubled since 1970 and now
accounts for one-fifth of the country’s total water usage, according to the China Geological Survey
Bureau. The Communist Party is fully aware of the problems. A new water pollution law is under
consideration that would sharply increase fines against polluters . Different coastal cities are building
desalination plants . Multinational waste treatment companies are being recruited to help tackle the
enormous wastewater problem. Many scientists believe that huge gains can still be reaped by better
efficiency and conservation. In north China, pilot projects are under way to try to reduce water loss from
winter wheat crops. Some cities have raised the price of water to promote conservation, but it remains
subsidized in most places. Already, some cities along the route of the transfer project are recoiling
because of the planned higher prices. Some say they may just continue pumping. Tough political
choices, though, seem unavoidable. Studies by different scientists have concluded that the rising water
demands in the North China Plain make it unfeasible for farmers to continue planting a winter crop. The
international ramifications would be significant if China became an ever bigger customer on world grain
markets. Some analysts have long warned that grain prices could steadily rise, contributing to inflation
and making it harder for other developing countries to buy food. The social implications would also be
significant inside China. Near Shijiazhuang, Wang Jingyan’s farming village depends on wells that are
more than 600 feet deep. Not planting winter wheat would amount to economic suicide. “We would
lose 60 percent or 70 percent of our income if we didn’t plant winter wheat,” Mr. Wang said. “Everyone
here plants winter wheat.” Another water proposal is also radical: huge, rapid urbanization. Scientists
say converting farmland into urban areas would save enough water to stop the drop in the water table,
if not reverse it, because widespread farming still uses more water than urban areas. Of course, largescale urbanization, already under way, could worsen air quality; Shijiazhuang’s air already ranks among
the worst in China because of heavy industrial pollution. For now, Shijiazhuang’s priority, like that of
other major Chinese cities, is to grow as quickly as possible. The city’s gross domestic product has risen
by an average of 10 percent every year since 1980, even as the city’s per capita rate of available water is
now only one thirty-third of the world average. “We have a water shortage, but we have to develop,”
said Wang Yongli, a senior engineer with the city’s water conservation bureau. “And development is
going to be put first.” Mr. Wang has spent four decades charting the steady extinction of the North
China Plain’s aquifer. Water in Shijiazhuang, with more than 800 illegal wells, is as scarce as it is in Israel,
he said. “In Israel, people regard water as more important than life itself,” he said. “In Shijiazhuang, it’s
not that way. People are focused on the economy.”
China alone must solve- global implications to Chinese water shortage
Bateman 02/25- Josh- journalist based in Asia. He has a B.S. in Agribusiness Management from The
Pennsylvania State University, 02/25/14, “China's looming water crisis”, The Ecologist,
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2291208/chinas_looming_water_crisis.html // CS
In a report by the Chinese News Service, Jiao Yong, Vice Minister of Water Resources, said, "China has
more than 400 cities short of water, some 110 of which are facing serious scarcity." A study by the
China's Ministry of Water Resources found that approximately 55% of China's 50,000 rivers that existed
in the 1990s have ... disappeared. According to Jiang Liping, senior irrigation specialist at the World Bank
in Beijing, China is over-exploiting its groundwater by 22 billion cubic meters a year - yet per capita
water consumption is less than one third of the global average. "China faces a severe water scarcity
issue in water resources right now and it's getting more serious because of rampant economic growth ...
Right now, the economy takes too much water from the environment so the ecological environment has
been degraded." The Issue According to a 2012 joint UNICEF and WHO study, 593 million Chinese have
gained access to improved sanitation since 1990. However, even with the increased access to cleaner
water, China still faces a significant supply deficit. As more people migrate to cities and join the middle
class, their water consumption increases. With urbanization, the use of toilets, showers, and washing
machines increases as does the consumption of nondurable goods such as meat, alcohol, clothes and
electronics, all of which require water for production. The Water Footprint Network reports that
Chinese annual per capita water consumption is 1,071 m3. Data from the Ministry of Water Resources
show that in 2008, agriculture accounted for 62% of demand, industry for 24%, domestic for 12%, and
replenishment for 2%. However, industry and domestic will drive future demand. According to McKinsey
data, in 2030 agriculture demand will account for 51%, industry 32%, and 16% will go towards municipal
and domestic uses. China's water efficiency is another problem. Industry in China continues to expand
and compared to other countries, is highly inefficient. Liping said, "water use efficiency and water
productivity in both industry and agriculture are very low." According to Andreas Fruschki, Portfolio
Manager of the $268 million Allianz Global Water Mutual Fund, "most emerging markets continue to
rely on bottled water in plastic or tap water which is not potable and has to be boiled before
consumption, which is expensive and inefficient." A catalogue of problems Another challenge China
faces is logistics. More than 60% of China's water is in the southern part of the country, but most of the
usage is in the north and coastlines. As Debra Tan, Head of China Water Risk, a Hong Kong-based nonprofit explains, "45% of China's GDP is derived from water-scarce provinces. It is not easy to grow your
economy with limited water and geographical issues beyond your control." Beijing and other northern
cities get most of their water from underground aquifers. Over the last five decades, China has had to
drill increasingly deeper to gain access to water. According to research from author Lester Brown, key
aquifers are declining by as much as 3 metres / 10 feet per year. This increases drilling expenses and
energy usage and has also lead to an increase in arsenic poisoning. An August, 2013 study published in
the journal Science, found that as many as 20 million people in China may be affected by arseniccontaminated groundwater. Testing for contaminated wells, however, is resource- and time-intensive
given China's geographic size. A study by Shourong Wang and Zuqiang Zhang concluded that climate
change is compounding the problem. The authors found that China's average temperature rose by 1.1°C
from 1908 to 2007. They expect that from 2000, the annual mean air temperature in China will rise by
1.3 to 2.1°C by 2020 and 2.3 to 3.3°C by 2050. According to China Daily, Chen Lei, Minister of Water
Resources, said, "global climate change could further exacerbate existing problems over water security,
water supply and farming irrigation." Another problem is that China's primary energy source is coal. Coal
production is a water-intensive process and also has other ecological side effects, which further pollute
China's water supply. Ramifications for China The need for an adequate supply of clean water goes
beyond just a need for drinking water. Tan said, "China is a big producer of agriculture goods and food
security is of paramount importance to China as is energy security." In many rural areas, untreated
human excrement is commonly applied as fertilizer. This further pollutes China's water supply and can
carry diseases. Due to China's impaired water quality, many people suffer from poor hygiene and dental
issues. Other health issues in China linked to poor water quality include higher cancer rates, poor
immune systems, and lower fertility rates. Another issue is that as more water infrastructure projects
are built, hundreds of thousands citizens must relocate every year to accommodate the construction.
With insufficient water supplies, economic growth and innovation in China will be hindered. Via email,
Fruschki stated, "many industries rely on water supply - mining, power plants, food and dairy,
semiconductor production, solar panel production - and if there isn't enough water, growth has to slow
down." On the other hand, the existing situation does create economic opportunities. By 2015, China
plans to invest up to $735 billion into a new, strategic industry with the goal of creating new, greener
energy solutions. A portion of this capital will be allocated to decontaminate water ways and for new
water-related technologies. Global implications China's water shortage has global implications. As more
water projects are built in China and water is diverted from the south to the north, the water supplies of
nearby countries such as Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, India, Thailand and Bangladesh will be affected.
Rivers which could be impacted include the Indus, Brahmaputra, Ganges, Mekong, Irrawaddy, Nu, and
the Lancang. The lack of water will also impact global commodity prices. Without enough water, the
production of all raw materials will be materially impacted. Also, without sufficient water, remaining
Chinese farmers will have to transition to more drought-resistant crops. China's lack of water has
already made the country go from a net exporter to net importer of grains because they are waterintensive crops. As a multitude of rivers and lakes recede or evaporate every year, there is the increased
risk of extinction of certain animal species, such as the Chinese alligator, as their habitats are negatively
altered. Addressing the Issue Liping said, "to combat water scarcity, we need to have different
strategies. We need to increase the value of productivity per unit or drop of water in physical water
scarcity areas and increase water use efficiency in economic water scarcity areas for irrigated agriculture
using new technologies." For example, "use better seeds and have synergies between agriculture and
water irrigation scheduling so water productivity can increase." "A lot of things can be done on the
technology side in order to facilitate the change or conversion from a resource consumption manner to
a resource efficient manner. This requires integrating water resource and environmental management."
Fruschki agrees. "Solutions exist. Canals can be built and water redirected or stored, desalination plants
can provide additional supply on the coast lines. Also, demand can be reduced by stopping wastage and
leakage and quality improved by treating waste before discharging in rivers." According to Reuters,
China's current five year plan calls for $304 billion to be invested in various infrastructure projects
including dams and irrigation systems. One example is the South-North Water transfer. According to
Xinhua, the official press agency of the People's Republic of China, this project is forecasted to cost $82
billion and will annually divert approximately 45 billion cubic meters of water from the south to the
north. And China continues to invest in dams such as the Three Gorges Dam, which was completed in
2012 and can produce 22.5 GW of power. Construction on the Xingjiaba and the Xiluodu dams is
expected to be finished by 2015 and combined, they will produce approximately 20 GW of power.
Private sector involvement Over the last few years, the Government and private companies have also
increased their investments in desalination technologies. According to the 2013 China Greentech
Report, which is produced by The China Greentech Initiative, "From 1980-2010, the number of sewage
treatment plants in China grew from 37 to 3,000; China plans to construct an additional 2,000 to 3,000
plants nationwide between 2011 and 2015 to realize urban water treatment rates of 85% and a national
recycling rate of 15%." Another solution is to move to a more market-driven water pricing structure. Via
tariffs and other fees, the cost of water has increased over time, but is still relatively cheap compared to
other markets. An increase in the price of water would also encourage investment from private industry,
which would reduce the need for government investment. China has already seen interest from global
companies. Siemens, General Electric, Veolia, and Dow are some of the companies investing in China.
For certain provinces, the government recently introduced water quotas, which must be met by 2015.
And various provinces and counties have reached agreements to trade their water rights for financial
consideration to other provinces, which are short of water. Improving efficiency On the demand side, in
the Wilson Center's China Environment Series 12 Report, researchers found that if best practices - fixing
leaks, improving cleaning, reusing water and condensate, recovering heat, improving insulate - were
implemented, huge gains cold be realised. China's textile industry "can save approximately 25 percent of
the water and 30 percent of the energy used in a typical cotton fabric dyeing mill in China - all with
initiatives that recoup costs in less than eight months." Tan said, "it's such a multifaceted problem. You
really need to look at a number of solutions - not just one." She talked about the need for recycling rain
water, desalination, dams and bio-tech (in order to improve agriculture yields). She also discussed the
concept of 'trading for water' by importing water-intensive goods. For example, in Africa and South
America, China has been acquiring land and partnering with agriculture companies, which will increase
its food supply while reducing its water demand domestically. The Future With the different
backgrounds and views of the various stakeholders - agriculturalists, environmentalists, government,
citizens, foreign countries - this is a complex situation without an easy solution. But China is moving in
the right direction to address this issue, says Liping: "The Chinese government already recognized the
need to change the production manner to resource efficient. "The government recognizes this is a real
problem and is very important. They will allocate more water for environment and can't use too much
water for economic activity. The approach is to provide a balanced plan between economic production
and environmental protection." Talking about improving the prospects of the situation, Tan said,
"there's a long way to go, but I think the journey has started. If anybody will be able to do it, it will be
China." But in truth, time alone will tell.
A2: No expertise/ tech
China has the expertise and technology
Yinbiao and Jianli 04/11- Chen Yinbiao- Chief Engineer, Guohua Power Branch China Shenhua
Energy Co., Ltd, Zhang Jianli- Director, Desalination Research Laboratory, Shenhua Guohua Electric
Power Research Institute Co., Ltd, “Supplying Water to Power Plants with Desalination Technology”,
CornerStone, http://cornerstonemag.net/supplying-water-to-power-plants-with-desalinationtechnology/ // CS
Water is indispensable to human survival. In recent years, due to climate change, population
growth, environmental pollution, and other factors, the lack of freshwater resources in many
countries and regions has become a greater concern. Water scarcity is increasingly affecting global
sustainable development; hence resolving water shortage problems has become a common focus of
nations around the world. With abundant seawater on Earth —accounting for more than 97% of
the total water volume— desalination has been demonstrated as an option to turn the vast oceans
to a major potential source of freshwater. The widespread application of desalination is feasible
and could be an important component of solving the global water crisis. Today’s Desalination
Industry Large-scale development of desalination technology began in the mid-20 century, when it
was primarily used in the Middle East, a region with extreme water scarcity. As desalination
technology matured, application gradually expanded geographically. According to statistics from
Global Water Intelligence and the International Desalination Association, as of June 2013 about
17,277 desalination plants had been built globally, reaching a total freshwater production capacity
of 80,900,000 m /d. These projects include a seawater desalination capacity of about 47,730,000 m
/d—about 59% of the total capacity—addressing water supply problems for more than 100 million
people worldwide. China, in particular, is facing water scarcity, with per capita water resources at
only one-fourth that of the global average. In recent years, desalination technology has developed
rapidly in China, and major progress has been achieved in research and development, equipment
manufacturing, and water production capacity. Desalination equipment made in China has been
exported to countries such as Indonesia and India. According to statistics from the Desalination
Branch of China Water Enterprises Confederation, as of October 2013, China had constructed a
seawater desalination capacity of 858,600 m3/d, mainly supplying municipal users and the power
industry (see Figure 1).1 For energy, China employs primarily coal-fired power generation. Most
power plants are located in regions with extreme freshwater scarcity. Water consumption is a key
factor that can affect the efficiency of power generation and could restrict the development of
power plants. Water shortages are especially serious in the northern areas of China , and the siting
of new power plants in many northern regions must be based on access to adequate water
resources. In recent years, new power plants built in coastal areas have adopted industrial closedloop water systems, direct seawater cooling condensers, and other water-saving measures. Even so,
there remains a huge demand for freshwater . For example, Shenhua’s Hebei Guohua Cangdong
Power Plant has four coal-fired units currently in operation, with a combined electrical capacity of
2520 MW. Direct seawater cooling is used for all the condensers. Approximately 3,200,000–
4,400,000 m3 of freshwater is consumed every year as feedwater for the four boiler units, as well as
desulfurization and other processes. This massive water consumption requirement is completely
filled through desalination, achieving zero consumption of freshwater and effectively converting this
power plant into a supplier of freshwater to help alleviate water shortages in the surrounding
regions (see Figure 2 for a photo of the desalination facility). At the same time, cogeneration of
power and water can effectively reduce the production costs for both water and electricity. When
power plant water consumption demand is met through desalination, the building of power plants
in coastal areas is no longer restricted by whether freshwater resources can be obtained on land.
This approach is conducive to the development of coal-fired power generation that is harmonious
with the environment. Current Status of Desalination Technologies Chief Desalination Technologies
The water supply for desalination is not influenced by the seasons or by the climate, and thus can be
considered a good-quality, stable water source. Today, desalination is mainly based on two technical
routes: 1) distillation desalination based on multi-stage flash evaporation (MSF) and/or lowtemperature multi-effect distillation (MED) and 2) membrane desalination based on seawater
reverse osmosis (SWRO). In MSF, heated seawater is evaporated in multiple flash chambers with
sequentially reduced pressure; the condensed vapor is freshwater. In the MED process, multiple
evaporators connected in series are used to evaporate seawater: The vapor from each previous
evaporator is turned into heated vapor for the next evaporator and then condensed into freshwater.
In SWRO, seawater is pressurized to force water to pass through osmotic membranes while the salt
does not pass through. The main technical parameters of these three desalination technologies are
shown in Table 1. Due to high energy consumption, the share of MSF technology in the desalination
market has been declining year by year. MED and SWRO are being widely applied in newly built
desalination projects. MED and SWRO both have advantages: Equipment investment and water
production costs for SWRO are lower, but this technology has a higher requirement in terms of the
quality of the seawater. The pre-treatment technology is rather complex and its adaptability to
seawater temperature is poor. It has no obvious advantages in investment and operational energy
consumption when applied in northern China with lower seawater quality. MED technology has a
wider adaptive range for seawater temperature and water quality, and is characterized by high heat
transfer efficiency, low pre-treatment requirement, simple operation, high reliability, and good
water quality, although the capital costs are higher. Technical Advantages of MED The “lowtemperature” in low-temperature MED refers to its highest evaporation temperature, which is
generally lower than 70°C. Since the heat that is input can be used repeatedly, the process offers
high thermal efficiency, low energy consumption, and low water production costs. Additionally, due
to the low-temperature characteristic, the equipment experiences reduced scaling and corrosion
and very high operation reliability. MED technology is especially suitable for power and water
cogeneration projects; it can use exhaust from the low-pressure steam turbine to reduce water
production costs, an approach that also offers important technical advantages. MED technology has
received increased attention in recent years, with a constantly expanding installation scale and
continuously increasing market share. From 1997 to 2002, MED only accounted for about 25% of
desalination by distillation. Between 2003 and 2008, its share of the world market for desalination
by distillation grew to 42%. In 2013, MED technology accounted for 33% of China’s total desalination
capacity (see Figure 3).1 Cogeneration of Power and Water Major Benefits Cogeneration of power
and water is known as dual-purpose water production in the international desalination industry and
is the preferred option for desalination for coal-fired power plants. Employing this form of
cogeneration can significantly reduce desalinated water costs and investments and it has become
the principal model for existing large desalination projects. There are many benefits to integrating
power plant operation and desalination. First, since coal-fired power plants can be water-intensive,
the use of desalination to produce freshwater can meet the power plant’s freshwater needs.
Second, when the desalination process uses the plant’s low-grade steam, it provides the heat
needed for desalination, simultaneously providing cooling for the plant. This results in an increase in
the plant’s efficiency and reduces desalination costs. Third, the water produced from desalination is
high in purity, and further softening (i.e., removing calcium and other metal cations that could cause
buildup) is simple compared to other sources of water. Thus the cost of using desalinated water as
boiler feedwater would be lower than water that must be treated with a traditional water-softening
process. In addition, during cogeneration of electricity and water, the power plant’s cooling water
discharge facilities can be shared with concentrated seawater from desalination, which reduces
project capital investments. Finally, when the concentrated seawater is mixed with the power
plant’s circulating cooling water for discharge, it can reduce the impact on oceans because the
discharge temperature will be lower. MED Technical Innovation and Application of Cogeneration For
newly built and expanded coal-fired power plants within the Shenhua Group that are distributed in
coastal areas with water resource scarcity, the demands for desalination technologies are
constantly increasing . Driven by the company’s strategic development needs, Shenhua Guohua has
selected the MED desalination technology that is suitable for cogeneration of power and water.
Through research, development, and application, Shenhua Guohua now has proprietary, large-scale
MED equipment and has mastered the design of such equipment. The large-scale MED equipment
developed by Shenhua Guohua uses a horizontal-pipe falling film evaporator (see Figure 4 for the
full process). The generator turbine exhaust steam enters the heat exchanger for the first effect (i.e.,
stage) evaporator as heating steam and condenses after releasing sensible and latent heat; some of
the seawater is evaporated after absorbing heat. The steam from the first evaporator is guided into
the second-stage evaporator and condenses in the next stage, a step which is repeated for each
sequential evaporator, to yield several times more condensed water than can be obtained from
single-stage evaporation. When the generator exhaust has a higher temperature and pressure, a
thermal vapor compressor can be used to increase the pressure of some of the low-pressure steam
generated through seawater evaporation and transfer it to the first stage as the heating source,
which can greatly improve the efficiency and reduce the costs of water generation. The technical
crux of low-temperature MED desalination includes efficient heat transfer, material selection and
corrosion control, discharging non-condensed gas, avoiding scaling, good product water quality, etc.
The technical research and development strategy of Shenhua Guohua consists of mastering all these
key technological aspects so as to provide desalination equipment that can meet user demands,
mainly including guarantees on performance indicators, operational costs, reliability, and service
life. Through R&D the mechanisms of vacuum heat transfer and flow with small temperature
differences and multiphase flow have been mastered. In addition, large-scale MED design and key
equipment structure design methods have been obtained to develop large-scale MED series
equipment that can produce 12,500–25,000 m3/d of freshwater. Through research on MED heat
transfer and flow characteristics, a heat transfer and flow resistance coupling calculation method
has been established, and heat transfer and flow characteristics computational software for large
low-temperature MED equipment has been developed. This software provides effective tools for the
selection of MED working media parameters and the optimized design of the heat exchanger.
Meanwhile, MED technical parameter selection and calculation software has been developed as
well. This software can work out a large number of technology schemes as well as conduct a technoeconomic analysis targeting the initial conditions and user demands of different projects, to obtain
the technical configuration with optimal economics. Through fundamental experimental research, a
liquid spray system with high distribution efficiency has been designed, and a single-shell double
tube evaporator has been developed; this design promotes the flow of steam in the tubes and
improves overall heat transfer. Using a 100-m3/d MED pilot plant, the reliability of the design
calculation software was verified through heat transfer tests. The optimized structural design
direction of the MED evaporator was also explored by conducting various heat-transfer flowcomparative experiments on the pilot plant. The MED evaporator is a large thin-walled vacuum
container. Shenhua Guohua cooperated with manufacturers in China to overcome technical
problems—such as welding and deformation control in large thin-walled containers, expansion of
thin-tube plates, installation of large tube bundles, installation and deformation correction of the
flow guide plates, avoidance of acid pickling, field assembly and welding of multiple-effect
evaporators—and formed a comprehensive set of standards in enterprise manufacturing
techniques. Through the overall development effort, large-scale MED installation, troubleshooting
strategies, and new technologies involving start-up, operation, normal shutdown, and emergency
shutdown have been mastered . In addition, domestic industrial standards have been established.
At the same time the desalination anti-sludging agent and the chemical cleaning system and method
independently developed by Shenhua Guohua have reduced the operational costs for MED
equipment. The MED technology that was independently researched and developed by Shenhua
Guohua has been successfully applied to Shenhua’s Hebei Guohua Cangdong Power Plant for the
cogeneration of power and water project; one 12,500-m3/d unit and one 25,000-m3/d unit are
currently operating, both of which were domestically manufactured. The exhaust steam from the
turbine of the coal-fired power generator is used as a heat source for desalinating water, which
meets not only the needs of the power plant, but also provides water for the Port of Huanghua in
Cangzhou, Hebei, as well as industrial users in nearby steel plants. As the quality of the water
produced through desalination is higher than other sources of freshwater, the cost for follow-up
water treatment is reduced, and the desalinated water offers a price advantage for industrial
users . At present, Guohua Cangdong Power Plant’s annual external freshwater supply capacity is
close to 10 million m3, which has effectively relieved the freshwater resource scarcity in the Port of
Huanghua.
A2: US Key
Notes:
- The 4 cards that the aff has that the US is key do not apply- Neither the Quinn nor the King evidence reference desalination
- The King evidence just says “the United States, which has expertise in water
management in both the public and private sectors, could help lead in developing policies
for improved global water use and international cooperation.”—not in context of
desalination expertise
- Last line of Sharp evidence says- Obama will not help Jordan because he fears “they could
demand a renegotiation if another Middle Eastern country secures an agreement with the
U.S. under more favorable terms”
Desalination projects will not be funded in the US- empirics prove
ABC News 12- “No need for desalination this year”, 4/2/12, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-0402/no-need-for-desalination-water-this-year/3927032 // CS
The State Government has decided not to use water from the Wonthaggi desalination plant in its first
year of operation. Water Minister Peter Walsh says rising dam levels mean the purchase of water could
risk spillages from the Yarra storages. Mr Walsh says contractually the Government is obliged to place a
water order with plant operator AquaSure every April. "We believe with the Melbourne water storages
at 64.8 per cent, the catchments being wet and coming into the winter spring filling period, there's no
need for desal water next financial year," he said. It will probably be February 2013 by the time the
plant is complete and has passed reliability testing. Mr Walsh says the security payment for having the
plant sit there, regardless of whether or not water is used is $654 million. He says it would have cost
$109 million to buy the full allocation of 150 million gigalitres. Labor's Tim Holding says the plant was
only ever intended to be used in emergencies . "It's not water that you purchase each and every year,"
he said. Melbourne Water will be obliged to buy the water created from the commissioning phase of the
plant later this year, estimated to cost about $176 million.
Impact
Water shortage threatens national security
Khan 7/18/14- Sulmaan- Assistant Professor of Chinese Foreign Relations at the Fletcher School, Tufts
University, where he also directs the Water and Oceans Program at the Center for International
Environment and Resource Policy, “Suicide By Drought How China is Destroying Its Own Water Supply”,
Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141643/sulmaan-khan/suicide-by-drought // CS
On the grasslands of the Tibetan plateau, one sometimes hears a strange chattering -- an excited buzz
that seems to emanate from the earth itself. Anyone who stops to look for the source will quickly realize
that the ground is marked by a series of holes, from which small, shy creatures are likely to be watching.
The labyrinthine burrows made by these mammals, called pikas, provide them security. But they provide
China and much of Asia security as well. By digging holes in the ground, pikas allow rainwater to
percolate into the earth and replenish the water table. Without the humble pika, the water simply runs
along the surface, triggering floods and soil erosion. So it is no coincidence that, when the pikas became
the target of a state-led poisoning campaign beginning in the mid-twentieth century, waters began,
slowly, to dry up across the country. The pika was accused of being a pest that destroyed grasslands.
Scientists have pointed out that the pika prefers long grass and that its visibility is a symptom, not a
cause, of grassland degradation. But policy is slow to catch up with science; pika killings continue today.
The pikas’ plight illustrates China's difficulties in confronting its water crisis. The economic development
on which Beijing depends to keep the population in check poses a dire threat to the fragile ecosystems
that the country and the continent depend on for water. It might thus seem politically impossible for
China to enact any of the far-reaching environmental reforms that it needs. In the long term, though,
absent any policy changes, China is likely on the path to serious civil strife , and perhaps even civil war .
THE WILD WEST Most of China’s most important rivers originate in the plateaus of Tibet and the
surrounding mountain ranges, an area known by scholars as the Third Pole because of its plentiful ice.
The rivers flowing from the Third Pole -- among them, the Mekong, the Yangtze, and the Yellow River -traditionally satisfied the majority of China’s water needs. But those waters, along with China’s other
supplies, have been steadily disappearing. Since the 1950s, 27,000 rivers have vanished from China .
China has only seven percent of the world’s freshwater to meet the needs of about one-fifth of the
world’s population. Of that water, only 23 percent is located in northern China, which, as home to most
of the country's major industries, uses much more water than China’s south. Meanwhile, much of the
country's available water supply has been rendered unusable by pollution . The rapid economic
development of western China in the last decade and a half has put even more pressure on China’s
water supply. Beijing has supported this economic development in spite of its pernicious ecological
consequences, though, because it believes that economic growth is the key to calming the restive
minorities in the west. (If Kazakhs, Tibetans, and Uighurs have plenty of employment opportunities, the
theory holds, they will be less likely to rebel against Communist Party rule.) But Beijing’s control over
what goes on in western China is limited. Grand engineering projects designed in Beijing and
implemented in distant provinces do exist: think of the railway to Tibet or the Three Gorges Dam. But
lately, the process of development in western China has mostly been ground-up -- cities have
mushroomed out of nowhere, almost entirely unnoticed by the central government. These cities are a
byproduct of increasing unemployment in the country’s east, sharpened in the aftermath of the global
financial crisis that began in 2008. Out of work even in the larger cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and
Guangzhou, many young Chinese moved to existing cities in western China, such as Lanzhou, Xining, and
Urumqi. When those cities grew too crowded, they ventured into what had once been virtually
untouched land. Some of them went in search of caterpillar fungus, which serves as an aphrodisiac in
Chinese medicine; those who were adept at finding the fungus in the wilds of western China could
afford to live in small towns by working only a few weeks a year. Others believed that they would be
part of a new tourism industry; wealthy tour groups from eastern China pay considerable money to see
the snowy peaks of Tibet, even if the tourism infrastructure that has been built to accommodate them
considerably diminishes their beauty. With these new residents has come haphazard new infrastructure.
In Qinghai province, the government is building a barrage of new roadways from the capital of Xining to
the southern city of Yushu. In the Tibet Autonomous Region, Beijing is planning to build additional
railways linking Lhasa and Shigatse, and extending to the border of Nepal. The problem is that this
development is taking place in ecosystems that hold the headwaters for China’s water supply. And the
pressures that urbanization puts on the headwaters -- through overuse, grassland degradation,
pollution, and threats to species that have a role to play in maintaining the health of the river ecosystem
-- is already having consequences downstream . On the Tibetan plateau, streambeds are dry and
glaciers have melted into dead rock. Similar threats confront China’s other water sources. The Pearl
River in Southern China is drying. In China’s northeast, burgeoning construction projects are swallowing
the wetlands that replenish the region's groundwater. As a result, water shortages have plagued the
country in recent years, and experts predict that water demand will exceed supply by 2030. Given the
unreliability of Chinese statistics and how swiftly ecosystems can shift course, that crunch could arrive
even sooner than anticipated. THE CHAIRMAN’S DELUSIONS Rather than trying to conserve water, the
Chinese government has endorsed a massive project inspired by China’s first communist leader, Mao
Zedong. The south had plentiful water, Mao reasoned in 1952, whereas the north did not; therefore,
water should be diverted from the south to the north. In 2002, the Communist Party initiated a massive
engineering project in order to realize this vision: a series of canals that will draw approximately 45
billion cubic meters of water from the south to the north. The first canal has already opened in eastern
China. Two more -- including a western route that will cut across the Himalayas -- are underway. It is
true that water resources are distributed unevenly, with the south home to 77 percent of the country’s
total water resources. Of the total water resources available in northern China, about 45 percent get
used; the south needs to use only about 20 percent of its water resources. It is also true that as the
north continues to grow, so will its demand for water. But there are several problems with Beijing’s
water diversion policy. First, the ecological risks are immense . It is quite possible that the project will
disrupt the river systems and exacerbate water shortages, rather than solve them, by triggering soil
erosion and eliminating species responsible for maintaining a healthy river. The Three Gorges Dam
provides a cautionary tale about tampering with natural forces: research shows that the dam caused an
increase in seismic activity and landslides. Downstream of the infamous project, water shortages
disrupted irrigation. Second -- and more important -- the project solves nothing in the long term. If
northern China’s inefficient water use continues unchecked, the 45 billion cubic meters piped in from
the south will eventually be too little -- especially with the rivers’ sources drying out. As Beijing diverts
more and more water to the north, it will expose a long-standing political rift. In its long history, China
has often split along north-south lines. Already, in southern places like Chongqing and Yunnan, one
hears a growing complaint: Why should we southerners go thirsty so that the northerners can grow
rich? As southern crops fail and people there feel the burden of water shortages, such complaints will
only increase. More generally, Beijing has yet to confront the many historical examples that suggest that
water shortages can be a grave threat to national security . Persistent drought led to the collapse of
Mayan civilization between 760 and 930 AD. In China, the Ming dynasty collapsed in the seventeenth
century largely due to years of successive droughts. More recently, in the Middle East and South Asia,
water shortages have led to political unrest . The recent swell of environmental protests in China
indicates that it will not be immune to the trend. A historian looking back in 2040 might well tell a story
in which Beijing, unable to curb the state’s relentless water use, condemned it to growing water
shortages. As the south grew parched, political grievances flared into violent opposition, which became
increasingly difficult to put down as angered military commanders joined in and residents of the
desiccated third pole -- Tibetans, Uighurs, Kazakhs -- went into revolt. Like the Ming dynasty before it,
the historian would conclude, China had collapsed because thirst spawns violence. WAR ON DROUGHT
To avoid serious ecological and political calamity, China’s central government will have to curtail its
economic goals. Fortunately, Beijing’s recent climate change policies suggest that it may be prepared to
make such a compromise. Ahead of the United Nations climate change talks to be held in Paris in 2015,
the Chinese government has talked of initiating a “war on pollution” and reducing its carbon emissions.
There are plenty of signs, from the investment in renewable energy to discussing emissions with the US
in the Strategic Economic Dialogue, that at least some in the Chinese government are serious. But
cutting carbon emissions without a plan to address water issues -- and other problems like soil
contaminated with toxins -- is futile. Beijing needs to develop a plan that addresses the entirety of its
environmental woes. For one, it has to mandate sustainable development, which will require
strengthening the central government against the local governments. Cities can no longer be allowed to
spring up in western China without Beijing’s knowledge -- the effects on water supply are simply too
great. The government will also have to bring locally administered industries, which emit more
pollutants and use more water than they report, under control. To aid these efforts, the Chinese
government should also try to rally popular support around sustainable development. The Chinese
public is tired of the water shortages, unsafe drinking water, and soil contamination caused by
haphazard urban development. Xi Jinping could present environmental reform as the next chapter of
China’s glorious history and as part of the new model of great power relations that he has touted. Once
it has popular support in place, China could make other major changes. First, it would be worth putting a
halt to the south-to-north water diversion project -- perhaps even going so far as to undo the existing
canal in eastern China -- and insisting on water and energy efficiency in the north instead. As experts
have pointed out, simple measures like water recycling and water price increases could help immensely.
This would likely lead to vociferous complaints from provincial officials and industrial barons, but that
should be preferable to steadily alienating the southern swath of the country and allowing the root
causes of the problem to persist. Second -- and this too would lead to some political backlash -- Beijing
should move to curb, and perhaps even stop, development in the country's most ecologically sensitive
areas. The Chinese government needs to treat the protection of the Tibetan plateau as a key to national
security, not an impediment to economic growth, even if that means finding other ways of easing social
tensions in western China. One possibility would be to stanch the flow of Han migrants, which feeds the
resentment that ethnic minorities often feel. Beijing should also consult the platoon of conservation
biologists, both Chinese and foreign, who have long been warning of looming ecological catastrophe.
China’s water security depends on a complex and subtle balance -- the forests that enrich the
watersheds, the alpine grasslands that limit soil erosion, the relationships between myriad organisms
which maintain healthy waterways -- that is extremely difficult to understand. The Chinese state may
need to swallow its pride in reaching out to foreign experts, but that shouldn't be an impediment. China
desperately needs to comprehend its environment in all its intricacy, and the country’s officials should
be open to reaching out to anyone who might be able to help. Even the diminutive pika, after all, has a
critical role to play
Aff
Insert 4 US key cards from wave 2
California proves US faces water scarcity
Boxall 01/31- Bettina- joined The Times in 1987 and has covered environmental news for the paper
since 2002, specializing in water and forest issues, “California drought could force key water system to
cut deliveries”, the Los Angeles Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2014/jan/31/local/la-me-drought20140201 // CS
Officials Friday said that for the first time ever, the State Water Project that helps supply a majority
of Californians may be unable to make any deliveries except to maintain public health and safety.
The prospect of no deliveries from one of the state's key water systems underscores the depth of a
drought that threatens to be the worst in California's modern history. But the practical effect is less
stark because most water districts have other sources, such as local storage and groundwater, to
turn to. Officials stressed that the cut did not mean faucets would run dry. The Metropolitan Water
District of Southern California, the state project's largest customer, has said it has enough supplies in
reserve to get the Southland through this year without mandatory rationing. Even so, the
announcement Friday is a milestone. "This is the first time in the 54-year history of the State Water
Project that projected water supplies for both urban and agricultural uses have been reduced to
zero," said state Department of Water Resources director Mark Cowin. " This is not a coming crisis
… This is a current crisis ," Cowin said during a Sacramento news conference in which state officials
announced a variety of actions they were taking to cope with the growing water shortage. The State
Water Project supplies mostly urban agencies centered in the Bay Area and Southern California,
along with about 1,000 square miles of irrigated farmland, primarily in the southern San Joaquin
Valley. The State Water Resources Control Board is issuing temporary orders relaxing environmental
standards that would have triggered increased releases from large reservoirs in Northern California.
It is limiting exports from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta to what is necessary to meet health and
safety needs, in effect eliminating delta irrigation deliveries to San Joaquin agriculture. The board is
also telling about 5,800 junior rights holders, most of them agricultural, that they will have to curtail
surface water diversions in the Sacramento and San Joaquin river basins. "Today's actions mean that
everyone — farmers, fish, people in our cities and towns — will get less water," Cowin said. "But
these actions will protect us all better in the long run. Simply put, there's not enough water to go
around." Last year was California's driest calendar year in more than a century of records. This year
could be just as bad. Storage in major reservoirs has dropped well below average . The mountain
snowpack, which acts as a natural reservoir, is at record lows for this time of year. Gov. Jerry Brown
has declared a drought emergency and urged all Californians to cut water use by 20%. The state has
identified 17 communities in Central and Northern California that could run out of water in the
next couple of months. Growers who get supplies from the federal Central Valley Project will hear
in a few weeks if they can count on any deliveries from that system. About 75% of Californians'
water use is by agriculture, meaning the state's fertile middle takes the biggest hit in times of
drought. San Joaquin Valley farmers will pump groundwater and use any reserves they have to keep
profitable orchards and vines alive, while leaving hundreds of thousands of acres unplanted this
year. Jim Beck, general manager of the Kern County Water Agency, the State Water Project's
second-largest customer, said his growers would be able to make up for a large part of lost
deliveries with groundwater and supplies left over from last year. Still, he called the prospect of a
zero allocation a "huge disaster that will dramatically affect our growers economically" and said it "
In 1991, during California's last major drought, the State Water Project didn't deliver any irrigation
water but sent some supplies to urban agencies. The project makes monthly assessments and, if
February and March bring rain and snow, the allocation could change. In 2010, the state project
initially said it would only be able to deliver 5% of contractor requests. When winter storms boosted
reservoir levels, the allocation jumped to 50%. Officials aren't counting on that this year. By reducing
dam releases now, they say they can hold on to supplies to use later for urban deliveries, to prevent
delta water supplies from getting too salty and to maintain cool river temperatures for migrating
salmon. "We're trying to make sure there's enough water for fish and public health going into the
future," said Tom Howard, executive director of the state water board.
California experiencing drought
Richman and Rogers 01/17/14- Staff writers for San Jose Mercury News, “Brown declares
California drought emergency”, San Jose Mercury News,
http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_24933924/california-drought-emergency-declared-by-govjerry-brown // CS
SAN FRANCISCO -- Gov. Jerry Brown on Friday declared a drought emergency in California as the state
struggles with the least amount of rainfall in its 163-year history, reservoir levels fall and firefighters
remain on high alert. "We are in an unprecedented, very serious situation," said Brown, who asked
California residents and businesses to voluntarily reduce their water consumption by 20 percent.
"Hopefully, it will rain eventually. But in the meantime, we have to do our part." The drought
declaration also streamlines the rules for water agencies to transfer extra water from one part of the
state to another, easing shortages. It also directs the state to hire more seasonal firefighters, limits the
landscaping of highways and raises public awareness. Brown was governor in 1976 and 1977, one of
California's most severe dry periods in the 20th century. The most recent extended drought was from
1987 to 1992. The last governor to declare a drought emergency was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who did
so during a period of low rainfall in 2008 and 2009. Brown lifted that declaration in 2011 after a wet
winter. Asked how his prior experience as governor during a drought might help now, he replied, "I
don't know that I kept my notebook from 1977." However, the state won't hesitate to redirect whatever
resources are necessary, Brown told reporters. "When the house is burning down," he said, "you have to
pour water on the fire, and if that costs money, we'll spend money." Although California has a
Mediterranean climate and periodically experiences drought, current conditions are particularly dry. The
Sierra Nevada snowpack on Thursday was 17 percent of normal. And last year, most cities in the state
received the lowest amount of rain in any living Californian's lifetime. The rainfall records go back to
1850. For the past 13 months, a huge high-pressure ridge in the atmosphere has sat off the West Coast,
diverting storms that normally would bring winter rain northward to Canada. As a result, reservoir levels
are low, farmers and ranchers are suffering, and fire danger is at an extreme level. Brown's declaration
generally won praise from Republicans and Democrats, environmental groups and farmers. "It's
entirely appropriate for the governor to declare a drought emergency, and we appreciate his timely
action," said Paul Wenger, president of the California Farm Bureau Federation. He called for more state
spending on dams and reservoirs, which he hopes will be included in a water bond proposed for the
November ballot. "Farmers across California face wrenching decisions today, as well as in coming
months," Wenger said. "Will they have enough water to plant crops, to water their livestock, and keep
trees and vines alive? "An additional concern is how many people they may have to lay off as a result of
water shortages. Any way the state and federal governments can provide assistance in adding water to
the system will help." So far, farmers have been affected more by the dry conditions than most
California residents. Although many residents think that population growth is the main driver of water
demand statewide, it actually is agriculture. In an average year, farmers use 80 percent of the water
used by people and businesses -- 34 million acre-feet from a total of 43 million acre-feet that is diverted
from rivers, lakes and groundwater, according to the state Department of Water Resources. Most of the
water goes to irrigate crops. Without rain, many farmers have been heavily pumping groundwater in the
Central Valley, and some areas expect that thousands of acres of fields will be fallowed this summer. In
the Bay Area, large water districts that serve the majority of residents say they will wait until March or
April to make a decision about whether to put mandatory restrictions in place. Those include the Santa
Clara Valley Water District, the East Bay Municipal Utility District, the San Francisco Public Utilities
Commission and the Contra Costa Water District. The reason for the delay, officials said Friday, is that
many have water in storage and have been running conservation and rebate programs for years, so they
are not in a crisis. "If it remained bone dry, we would have to look at restrictions," said Contra Costa
Water District spokeswoman Jennifer Allen. "But it's still too early to say what supply we will have." The
Santa Clara Valley Water District has a year's supply stored in underground aquifers, and another year's
supply is stored underground at the Semitropic Water District near Bakersfield. "We are hoping we can
wait until the end of the rainy season to propose a target," said Marty Grimes, a spokesman for the
Santa Clara Valley Water District. "What happens in February and March could change the situation."
Brown's declaration also: Directs state agencies, led by the Department of Water Resources, to execute
a statewide campaign to encourage and promote water conservation, with a goal of reducing water
usage by 20 percent. Requires the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection to hire additional
seasonal firefighters. Urges cities and water districts to update their water management and drought
plans. Orders all state agencies to conserve water, including placing a moratorium on new, nonessential
landscaping at public buildings and along highways. Requires state officials to speed approval for
voluntary water sales and transfers between willing districts. Orders the Department of Water
Resources to accelerate spending on water supply and conservation projects that can break ground this
year. California normally receives nearly all its annual rainfall during the winter. However, time is
running out on this winter. On Thursday, the drought outlook worsened, as the U.S. Drought Monitor, a
weekly update of drought conditions by federal agencies and researchers at the University of Nebraska,
classified large sections of Northern California, including the Bay Area, as the fourth most severe of five
drought categories: " extreme drought ." The update showed that 63 percent of California's land is at
that level of drought now, including the Bay Area, up from 27 percent the week before. Worse, scientists
at the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center in Maryland issued a 90-day precipitation
outlook that said it is likely that California will continue to receive below-normal rainfall at least through
April.
Other
phosphorus
Phosphorus not key to food production – other substances can substitute
Butusov and Jernelov 13 - *fellow at the International Center for Advanced Institute for Futures Studies
and Comparative EU-Russia Research **former director of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis
in Vienna, is a UN expert on environmental catastrophes (Mikhail and Arne, “Phosphorus: An Element that could
have been called Lucifer,” Springer Briefs in Environmental Science,
http://rum.prf.jcu.cz/public/mecirova/chemie_obyc/SpringerBriefs_in_Environmental_Science_9_Mik.pdf) mj
1.13 May Be Not Totally Essential After All
Phosphorus shares this status, of being part of all known life, with five other elements: carbon, oxygen,
hydrogen, nitrogen, and sulfur. In discussing the possibilities for life on other planets, scientists have
speculated about the possibilities of life based on some other elements. Silica has been suggested as an
alternative to carbon, sulfur as a replacement for oxygen, and arsenic for phosphorus. F. Wolfe-Simon, a
geo-microbiologist at the NASA Astrobiology Institute, decided to see if any indications of arsenic
replacing phosphorus were to be found among bacteria living in high-arsenic environments on Earth.
The results of her study were presented in Science online in December 2010 and caused some stir
among fellow biologists (Wolfe-Simon et al. 2011 ). She and her colleagues sampled bacteria from the
sediments of a California lake with extremely high levels of arsenic and cultivated them in media with
ever-lower levels of phosphate and higher and higher concentrations of arsenic. One type of bacteria, a
member of the Halomonadoceae family of Proteobacteria, survived well and kept reproducing also
when the medium was virtually phosphorus free, indicating that it could indeed use arsenic instead of
phosphorus for most if not all essential functions. Chemical analysis also found arsenic deeply
embedded in the bacterial DNA, and radioactive arsenic, when supplied, turned up in cell membranes,
proteins, lipids, ATP, and glucose in concentrations similar to those of phosphate in normal cells.
No impact to peak phosphorus – we can take measures to prevent it
Yao 14 – energy and materials writer who reports on oil and gas fundamentals in the Motley Fool (February
2014, Jay, “Should We Be Concerned About Peak Phosphorus?”
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/23/should-we-be-concerned-about-peak-phosphorus.aspx) mj
On the surface, peak phosphorus seems very disconcerting.
Along with nitrogen and potassium, phosphorus is an essential ingredient for fertilizers. Fertilizers have
played a key part in the Green Revolution, which has helped feed an extra 4.2 billion people since 1950.
The scarcity of potash, which is a source of soluble potassium, is not as big of a concern as the scarcity of
phosphorus. According to the U.S. Geological survey, the world has at least 200 years of reserves of
potash. Some experts predict that the high-grade reserves of phosphorus will be depleted anywhere
from 50 to 100 years and peak phosphorus could occur as soon as 2030. Despite the dour projections,
there are a few reasons not to be overly concerned.
We can change our diet First, we can change our diets. Eating less meat and more vegetables would
help. Diets heavy with meat and dairy typically require up to three times as much phosphorus as a
vegetarian diet. We can improve the food chain
Second, we can improve our food chain . In developed countries, as much as 50% of food production is
lost from farm to fork. As it stands today, the world doesn't really have a food production problem, it
has a food distribution problem. In the future, if we improve food distribution, we could still feed
everyone while maintaining our current levels of food production . We can recycle Third, we can extract
phosphorus from the things that we throw away today. We can extract phosphorus from manure, crop
residues, food waste, and human excreta. We can also get phosphorus from algae, seaweed, and ash.
Those extraction methods are currently uneconomical now, but could reasonably be expected to
become economical in the future.
The bottom line
On a long-term time horizon, however, it makes a lot of sense to invest in fertilizer companies. The
world's population is projected to increase from 7 billion today to 9 billion people by 2050. The Food
and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations predicts that in order to feed those 9 billion people,
food production will need to increase by 70% to 100%. Fertilizers and fertilizer companies will make up a
big part of the equation. As for peak phosphorus, I think the problem is too far away for the market to
be concerned. While some countries are no doubt building inventories in preparation for the event,
most market participants look at 10 year timelines or less.
If and when peak phosphorus does occur, and because fertilizer is such an essential ingredient in food
production, fertilizer companies will likely have the pricing power to pass on the added costs to the
consumer. Because there are ways to compensate for phosphorus shortages, we will still be able to
produce enough food -- the food will just be more expensive.
Peak phosphate is a myth – it would incentivize sustainable development
Dolan 13 - Ph.D. in economics from Yale University, founder of the American Institute of Business and
Economics, and independent, non-profit MBA program (July 2013, Ed, “Doomsday: Will Peak Phosphate Get us
Before Global Warming?” Oil Price, http://oilprice.com/Metals/Foodstuffs/Doomsday-Will-Peak-Phosphate-Getus-Before-Global-Warming.html) mj
The bottom line
The problems posed by depletion of finite supplies of high-grade phosphate rock are not trivial.
However, it is highly misleading to forecast a sharp peak of phosphate fertilizer production in the near
future, let alone to predict that mass starvation and population collapse lie on the downslope of the
curve. The fact that there are no substitutes for phosphorus when it comes to building DNA or cell walls
does not mean that markets are incapable of managing increasing scarcity.
What does seem likely is a period of continued high or rising phosphate prices, which will trigger three
reactions. First, higher prices will make it economical to process ever-lower grades of phosphate rock.
Second, they will spur changes in farm management and development of improved crop varieties; these
in turn will accelerate incipient trends toward increased food output per unit of phosphate input. Third,
higher prices will provide incentives for improved recycling of phosphorus from waste streams.
Such a phosphate plateau does not preclude the need for changes in how people live and eat. It could
well mean the relative price of food will rise over time, something that could cause hardship for many of
the world’s poor. Furthermore, the price of phosphorus-intensive meat is likely to rise relative to those
of other foods, making it unrealistic for the world’s emergent middle classes ever to attain the kind of
meat-rich diet to which residents of today’s wealthy countries have become accustomed—a diet that, in
the age of obesity, is sometimes less of a blessing than a curse.
When all is said and done, a plateau is not a cliff. There is no phosphate doomsday on the horizon.
Their evidence doesn’t account for new phosphorus production models
Terrascope 13 – (“Fighting Peak Phosphorus,” MIT,
http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2016/finalwebsite/solutions/phosphorus.html) mj
3. Explore new mining areas to determine actual total reserves
According to some peak phosphorus alarmists, the world is running out of viable reserves in the very
near future (EU paper). Their estimates often use United States Geological Survey (USGS) data on total
world reserves, but each year, USGS estimates change, usually to expand reserves, and sometimes
dramatically. The largest discoveries as of late are in Morocco or the Western Sahara, and there is as of
yet no definitive world total of high-grade phosphate deposits. By determining the actual amount of
phosphorus available, more accurate plans can be made for a sustainable future. Currently, there is far
too much uncertainty about how much recoverable phosphate the earth has left.
The USGS has extensive geological resources at their disposal, and they have mapped out the mineral
profiles of foreign countries several times in the past. Mission 2016 advises that the World Trade
Organization (WTO) facilitate treaties between the US and other countries in which the USGS works with
other governments to map geological profiles worldwide, creating a database of areas with potentially
tappable mineral reserves. Following this initial study, increasing supply becomes a free market solution,
as corporations use this information, conduct follow-up studies, and open new mines. This will be a
beneficial situation for all parties involved, and in the end will be good for the world.
US phosphorus not key – it’s declining in the status quo and substitutions solve
Walan 13 – senior account manager at Aastra, an innovative communications company (May 2013, Peter,
“Modeling of Peak Phosphorus
A Study of Bottlenecks and Implications for Future Production,” Uppsala University, http://www.divaportal.org/smash/get/diva2:640572/FULLTEXT02) mj
9.3
Future outlook
First of all, phosphorus is not running out as it is an element, hence it cannot be destroyed. Phosphorus
in the concentrated form of phosphate rock is a finite resource that most likely is going to peak at a
global scale within the 21st century, provided that production trends follow similar patterns as seen in
exploitation of other natural resources. Some countries phosphate rock production seem to have
peaked and others to be not far from peaking. United States production has clearly peaked as the
production is declining, phosphorus concentrations are decreasing and reserves are much smaller than
the URR. U.S. still accounts for a large share of world production, which means that other countries
must continue to compensate for the decline in the U.S. production in the future.
Chinas’ production has increased dramatically over the last ten years but this trend will be difficult to
maintain much longer and the production could therefore peak in 10 to 20 years with current trend. The
production might reach a plateau phase instead at for example 100 Mt since a doubling of 2011 years
production in ten years might not be possible. Morocco will probably gain an increasing share of the
world production in the longer run. Although, it is unlikely that they will be able to increase their
production more than seventeen times the amount of phosphate they produced in 2012, as in the high
estimations. This is mainly due to the bottlenecks in production such as the scarcity and competition for
water and energy. Climate change is expected to reduce rainfall in Morocco, which will increase the
already large water shortages further more (UNEP, 2009). To get enough water, it is likely that Morocco
therefore increasingly needs to rely on desalination plants and that competition increases for the water
that is left in the ground.
A reduction of the use of phosphate rock would in many ways be desirable. This would in particular
reduce the eutrophication of our lakes and waterways. New phosphorus is added continuously to the
ecosystem by the use of phosphate rock. If the phosphorus instead could be returned to agriculture in a
much higher extent than today and the losses of phosphorus in the food chain could be decreased,
these two actions would not only reduce the eutrophication but also reduce the many environmental
problems that are associated with phosphate rock mining and fertilizer production. Phosphorus
deficiency could thus also be postponed until later into the future. A transition to a more sustainable use
of phosphorus is especially a good idea to improve the food security for areas such as the EU, which
imports most of the phosphorus from other countries.
Some of the USGS listed reserves might need to be revised, such as for Egypt, Tunisia and maybe China.
Their reserves have remained constant for many years and gave strange results in the modeling. The
reserves are probably larger for these countries.
Phosphorus preservation solves any risk of shortage
Terrascope 13 – (“Fighting Peak Phosphorus,” MIT,
http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2016/finalwebsite/solutions/phosphorus.html) mj
1. Reduce demand through smarter fertilizer use
It is the opinion of Mission 2016 that the single largest problem with phosphorus fertilizer use is
overuse. The amount of phosphorous actually required to maintain a farm is highly variable, and
depends on factors such as soil conditions, crop type, crop history, geography, and weather patterns.
This makes it very difficult for farmers, especially those operating small, independent operations in
developing countries, to accurately assess their fertilizer needs, and leads to superfluous application.
Excess fertilizer is not only wasteful, it runs off into lakes, rivers, and oceans, where it causes massive,
unnatural algae blooms. These photosynthetic microbe colonies cover huge areas of water, then die off,
leaving behind sediment that blocks sunlight and destroys the aquatic ecosystems beneath them.
Experienced farmers can learn the most efficient amounts of fertilizer to use through years of
experience, which is part of the reason agriculturally mature nations have better fertilizer-to-yield ratios
than developing nations. In addition, scientific, quantitative data analysis can be applied to farmland to
determine the proper amount of fertilizer to use in a given situation. The Wisconsin phosphorus index is
an example of a tool, developed jointly by the government and the University of Wisconsin and
optimized for a specific region. It includes SnapPlus, a free software that allows farmers to estimate
their optimal fertilization plan from home.
A recent China Agriculture University study found that northern Chinese farmers use about 92 kg of
phosphorus fertilizer per acre, of which only 39 kg are removed as crops. This means 53 kg, fully 58% of
phosphorus, is not utilized and ultimately lost into the environment (21). As China is the largest
phosphorus consumer in the world, with 5.2 Mt consumed in 2009 alone , reducing the country's
phosphorus waste by even half would save the world over 1.5 Mt of phosphorus (3.45 Mt phosphate)
per year.
2. Stretch current supplies further through recycling
The primary means by which phosphorus is reintroduced to the environment post-consumption is
animal waste. Though manure is still used extensively around the world as fertilizer, human waste that
was once returned directly to the soil is now collected in municipal waste facilities and often released to
the ocean. Although most of the recoverable nutrients are currently lost, centralized municipal
collection facilities offer a means to recycle large quantities of phosphorus with relatively little effort.
Struvite, or magnesium ammonium phosphate, is a hard, clear crystal that occurs naturally when
ammonium-producing bacteria break down the urea in urine. It's the substance that causes kidney
stones, and for centuries, it has been the bane of sewage system operators the world over, forming
hard, rock-like crystal deposits on the inside of pipes that can build up and block off flow. However,
struvite is a benign, non-toxic substance, and it can be used as a rich, slow-release phosphate fertilizer.
In fact, struvite outperforms diammonium phosphate (DAP), the most widely-used fertilizer today (15),
on a unit-for-unit basis in terms of dry matter production, phosphorus uptake, and extractable residual
phosphorus (14). Although struvite is preferable to DAP in most circumstances, in the past, it has only
been used for high-value crops due to its higher cost (14).
In the past decade, phosphorus recovery has been the subject of intense research, and there are several
new, economical methods by which it can be accomplished, many involving struvite formation. One
technique, developed by University of British Columbia professor Don Mavinic, involves a cone-shaped
reaction chamber in which small struvite crystals combine with magnesium, ammonium, and the
phosphorus in wastewater on its way to a biosolids processor (X). The crystals grow until they are large
enough to be collected by a filter and removed. These systems prevent struvite buildup in pipes, prevent
phosphorus pollution in water basins, and provide valuable, usable phosphorus fertilizers. A company,
Osatra Nutrient Recovery Technologies, Inc., was founded around the technology, and the struvite
fertilizer the process creates is marketed as Crystal Green® (X). Another technology involves using
charged, molecular "templates" to induce the formation of large crystals in liquid manure (X). Struvitebased methods can recover upwards of 90% of wastewater phosphorus (X,Y). Biological capture is a
promising area of research as well, and involves cultivating phosphorus-hungry algae in the phosphaterich side streams of waste treatment facilities, yielding 60-65% recovery rates (X). A third possible
recovery method is through thermochemical treatments, which burn waste sludges to ash and then
convert the contained phosphorus to bioavailable forms free from toxic heavy metal loads; this method
can feasibly reach 100% recovery (20, X).
As is the case with improving fertilizer efficiency, the European Union, Canada, and the US have led the
world in phosphorus recovery. By 2007, 53% of sewage sludges in the EU were already reused in
agriculture , and in 2009, Sweden passed legislation to have at least 60% of its total phosphorus streams
from wastewater diverted for agricultural use by 2015 (18, X). By 2009, Osatra struvite systems had
been installed in Edmonton, Alberta; Portland, Oregon; and York, Pennsylvania, and the company had
plans to expand to the UK and the Netherlands. The progress made by these countries is significant, but
the greater problems, and potential gains, lie with China, India, and other fast-developing areas. If these
areas begin implementing significant amounts of high-quality, renewable phosphate fertilizer into their
supply chain early during their agricultural maturation, their demands for imports will not rise nearly as
dramatically as they could.
environment disad links
Desalinization harms the environment
Kasower 13 – Center for Integrated Water Research and professor of UC Santa Cruz (Steve, “Desalination: Not
All Bad and Not All Good,” Strategic Economic Applications Company,
http://www.pcl.org/projects/2010symposium/proceedings/Kasower-Handout.pdf) mj
Due to its high cost, energy intensiveness and overall ecological footprint, most environmental
advocates view desalinization (or desalination)‚ the conversion of salty ocean water into fresh water‚ as
a last resort for providing fresh water to needy populations. Sourcing fresh water from streams, rivers,
lakes and underground aquifers and adhering to strict water conservation measures are much more
viable for both economic and environmental reasons in most situations, although some desert regions
with thirsty and growing populations may not have many such options.
Meanwhile, expanding populations in desert areas are putting intense pressure on existing fresh water
supplies, forcing communities to turn to desalinization as the most expedient way to satisfy their
collective thirst. But the process of desalinization burns up many more fossil fuels than sourcing the
equivalent amount of fresh water from fresh water bodies. As such, the very proliferation of
desalinization plants around the world‚ some 13,000 already supply fresh water in 120 nations, primarily
in the Middle East, North Africa and Caribbean, is both a reaction to and one of many contributors to
global warming.
The plan disrupts the environment
UNEP 11 - an agency of the United Nations that coordinates its environmental activities, assisting developing
countries in implementing environmentally sound policies and practices (United Nations Environment Programme,
“Phosphorus and Food Production,”
http://www.unep.org/yearbook/2011/pdfs/phosphorus_and_food_productioin.pdf) mj
More sustainable use of a finite resource
In the last half-century, the phosphorus concentrations in freshwater and terrestrial systems have
increased by at least 75 per cent while the estimated flow of phosphorus to the ocean from the total
land area has risen to 22 million tonnes per year (Bennett et al. 2001). This amount exceeds the world’s
annual consumption of phosphorus fertilizer, estimated at 18 million tonnes in 2007 (FAOStat 2009).
While much of the phosphorus accumulated in terrestrial systems would eventually be available for
plant growth, there is no practical way to recover phosphorus lost to aquatic systems.
In aquatic systems too much phosphorus and other nutrients results in eutrophication, which promotes
excessive algal and aquatic plant growth along with undesirable impacts on biodiversity, water quality,
fish stocks and the recreational value of the environment. Algal blooms can include species that release
toxins which are harmful to humans or animals, while decomposition of algae can lower dissolved
oxygen levels, causing mass mortality among fish (Carpenter et al. 1998, MA 2005). Scientists have
warned that human-induced nutrient over-enrichment can push aquatic ecosystems beyond natural
thresholds, causing abrupt shifts in ecosystem structure and functioning (Rockström et al. 2009).