UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report:
INDCs Signal Unprecedented Momentum for Climate Agreement in
Paris, But Achieving 2 Degree Objective Contingent upon Enhanced
Ambition in Future Years
INDCs Projected to Reduce Emissions in 2030 by up to 6 Gt
But Additional 12 Gt Required to Close Gap
Geneva, 6 November 2015 – Existing policies and strong engagement by nations submitting their
contributions ahead of the Paris climate meeting will limit anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions by 2030, but a new climate agreement can encourage further action to limit global
temperature rise to 2°C by 2100, according to a new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
report.
The Emissions Gap Report is an authoritative assessment undertaken by a team of leading scientists and
modelling experts from around the world. It presents an assessment of the 119 Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) by 1 October 2015, covering 146 countries (including the European Union submitting as a
bloc) and up to 88 per cent of global GHG emissions in 2012.
The INDCs represent GHG emission reductions of 4 to 6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per
year (GtCO2e/yr) in 2030 compared to projected emissions under current policy trajectories. 2030
projections based on current policies are themselves 5 GtCO2e per year lower than the estimate of 65
GtCO2e, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report scenarios,
which assumed no additional climate policies are put in place after 2010.
This indicates that efforts to tackle climate change, including those taken before the Paris agreement
and full implementation of the INDCs, could cut up to 11 GtCO2e from projected emissions in 2030. This
is however around half of the total required to reach the global emission level of 42 GtCO2e in 2030
consistent with having a likely chance (>66 percent) of staying below the 2°C target in 2100.
The challenge is to bend the emissions trajectory down as soon as possible to ensure that the net zero
emissions goal in 2060-2075 is within reach.
UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner said, “The current INDCs, combined with policies over the last
few years, present a real increase in ambition levels and demonstrate an unprecedented commitment
and engagement by member states in tackling this major global challenge.
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“The INDCs assessed in this Emissions Gap report signal a breakthrough in terms of international efforts
to bend the curve of future emissions. While in themselves not sufficient to limit global temperature rise
to the recommended level of 2°C this century, they represent a historic step in the direction of
decarbonizing our economies. However, in order to close the gap it is essential that the Paris Agreement
adopt a dynamic approach in which ambitions, the mobilization of climate finance and other forms of
cooperation can be adjusted upwards at regular intervals.”
If all INDCs are fully implemented, the 2030 emissions gap would still be 12 GtCO2e, putting the world on
track to a temperature rise of around 3°C by 2100, and bringing significant climate impacts. However
this scenario assumes that nations would not review and further accelerate efforts in subsequent years
– i.e. in 2025 or 2030.The report also shows the uncertainties that exist for different scenarios based on
the best available scientific evidence.
The report also recommends early action on climate to keep costs as low as possible and avoid deeper
and more challenging cuts later.
With regard to the various potential scenarios for the emissions gap in 2025 and 2030, the report finds
the following:
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The global emission levels consistent with a chance of staying below the 2°C limit, following a
least-cost pathway from 2020, 48 GtCO2e (range 46 to 50) in 2025 and 42 GtCO2e (range: 31 to
44) in 2030.
Emissions are projected to be 54 GtCO2e (range 53 to 58) in 2025 and 56 GtCO2e (range 54 to
59) in 2030, if all unconditional INDCs are implemented. This gives emission gaps of 7 GtCO2e
(range 5 to 10) and 14 GtCO2e (range 12 to 17) in 2025 and 2030 respectively.
If conditional INDCs are included, the global emissions projection is 53 GtCO2e (range 52 to 56)
in 2025 and 54 GtCO2e (range 52 to 57) in 2030. This would give emission gaps of 5 GtCO2e
(range 4 to 8) and 12 GtCO2e (range 10 to 15) in 2025 and 2030 respectively.
If countries that have not yet submitted an INDC were to reduce their emissions at the same
percentage as those that have already submitted, the gap would narrow by a further 0.5 GtCO2e
in 2025 and 1 GtCO2e in 2030.
INDC process as foundation for closing the gap
The INDCs will likely have benefits beyond the estimated reductions to GHG emission levels as new
climate policies and actions are being galvanized by the process, the report says. The preparation of the
INDCs has incentivized the exploration of links between development and climate, and the development
of new national climate polices, and may be considered as the first step in a transition towards lowcarbon economies.
The Paris Agreement could build on and support these processes and provide the framework for
mobilization of the enhanced mitigation efforts required, the report says.
Further options available
Enhanced energy efficiency—with a particular emphasis on industry, buildings and transport—and
expanded use of renewable energy technologies for power production will be critical. Other key sectors
emphasized in the studies include forestry, agriculture and waste.
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In recognition of the significant opportunity for climate change mitigation through forest-related
actions, the report includes a focus on REDD+ and finds the theoretical potential of reducing forest loss
and restoring forests could be 9 GtCO2e/yr in Africa, Asia and the Pacific and Latin America and the
Caribbean combined. However, economic and land-use factors are likely to reduce this theoretical
potential.
This reflects the fact that forest loss, which reached 7.6 million ha per year between 2010-2015 accounts
for the largest portion of emissions from land use. While the full potential of REDD+ has not yet been
reached, many countries are expressing their willingness to undertake large-scale forest-related
mitigation.
REDD+ also has the potential to contribute to the large-scale restoration of degraded forest landscapes,
which would boost food production and support adaptation to climate change.
The impact of actions by International Cooperative Initiatives—such as the C40 Cities Climate Leadership
Group, the Compact of Mayors, and the Cement Sustainability Initiative—can also be significant, the
report finds. Preliminary assessments indicate an emission reduction in the range of the range of 0.75 to
2 GtCO2e in 2020.
For more information contact:
Isabelle Valentiny, Head of Communications, Regional Office for Europe, United Nations Environment
Programme, +41 79 251 82 36, isabelle.valentiny@unep.org
Shereen Zorba, Head of News and Media, United Nations Environment Programme, +254 788 526 000,
shereen.zorba@unep.org
NOTES TO EDITORS
The Executive Summary of the Emissions Gap Report can be downloaded from UNEP Live, along with a
breakdown of the INDCs by country.
Graphics from the Executive Summary can be downloaded here.
Background on INDC assessment methodology:
The assessment of the mitigation components of the INDCs concentrates on the implications on national
and global GHG emissions, and the current trends of national and global emissions, until 2030. The
aggregated emissions resulting from INDCs are compared with scenarios consistent with limiting
temperature increase to 2°C/1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The emission projections are based on
varying assumptions about INDC conditionality resulting in two cases: conditional and unconditional
INDCs. The cases are based on the findings from research groups, which have estimated national,
regional and global emissions. Current emissions trajectories are assumed for those parties that have
only conditional INDCs. The approach for projecting the global estimate for 2025 and 2030 emissions is
taking its point of departure in the current emissions trajectories. As countries submit their INDCs, the
estimates of their current trajectory are replaced by the estimate of the emission projections resulting
from the INDC. The INDC analysis is therefore a live process with the final update expected in early 2016.
Background on UN-REDD
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The UN-REDD Programme is the United Nations collaborative initiative on Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) in developing countries. The Programme was launched in
2008 and builds on the convening role and technical expertise of the Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and UNEP. The UNREDD Programme supports nationally-led REDD+ processes and promotes the informed and meaningful
involvement of all stakeholders, including Indigenous Peoples and other forest-dependent communities,
in national and international REDD+ implementation.
The Programme supports national REDD+ readiness efforts in 65 partner countries spanning Africa, AsiaPacific and Latin America, in two ways: (i) direct support to the design and implementation of UN-REDD
National Programmes; and (ii) complementary support to national REDD+ action through common
approaches, analyses, methodologies, tools, data and best practices developed through the UN-REDD
Global Programme.
For more information
UNEP Regional Office for Europe Information Officer Isabelle Valentiny: isabelle.valentiny@unep.org,
+41 792518236
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