Energy efficiency and urban infrastructure as
Chinese and Global challenges
Jun Li
jun.li@centre-cired.fr
‘Engaging China on Climate Change:
Crossroads of 21st-century Foreign Policy’
Brussels, 2 February 2011
Overview
• Ambitious target for energy efficiency improvement
in China’s 11th 5-year plan:20% reduction in GDP’s EI
(over 150 bn US$ invested)
• November 2009: 40-45% carbon/GDP intensity
reduction in 2020 relative to 2005
• “Low-carbon economy” has been adopted as a
national strategy in the 12th five-year plan(2011-2015)
• During the 12th FYP, Chinese government is likely to
impose binding targets on regions to achieve the 4045 objective
2
China 2050 LCE scenario
Energy efficiency
will be the largest
contributor to
carbon emissions
reduction in China
Source: CCICED 2009
3
Challenges in DCs: urban infrastructure
• Infrastructure development (buildings; transport;
energy; water supply and sewage etc.) contributes to
improving living condition ,quality of life and poverty
reduction in developing world
• Urban infrastructure is capital-intensive with strong
inertia and irreversibility; wrong decisions will result
in long term carbon lock-in.
• Lack of technical, financial and institutional capacities
in comprehensive governance of urban infrastructure
in most DCs
4
EE of urban infrastructure matter in China
1000000
China
Urban Pop (Thousands)
• Rapid urbanisation
(China’s urban
population and will
double during 20002030! )
• Income rise will drive
the demand for energy
services
• China’s 2009 stimulus
package (586 bn$),
nearly two thirds go to
infrastructure and
reconstruction
• Buildings and transport
are the most important
sectors for EE
improvements
800000
India
USA
600000
Western Europe
Russia
400000
200000
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Large investment will need to be mobilised
Incremental cumulative cost for China in IEA 450 ppm
scenario: $ 2100 billion (2008 dollar) over 2010-2030; of
which half will be attributed to buildings and transport
5
1. Buildings : an extremely dynamic sector :
China builds a Japan in just 3 years
• More than 15 bn m2 will be built in the next 2 decades
• 60% of existing buildings today have been built since 1996
•60% of existing buildings in 2030 will be constructed after
2006
Source: Liu 2009; World Bank
6
Electricity demand in the buildings sector
increased rapidly
electricity demand growth 1990-2007
900
1990=100
800
Agriculture
700
600
Industry
500
Transport
400
300
Household+
commercial
200
100
0
1990
1995
Source: NBS 2008
2000
2004
2005
2007
7
An example of BEE in Beijing
• An apartment building with 160 households, total
floor area: 37 700 m2 ; with 60 mm EPS+double
glazed window
Efficiency standards
need to be updated
8
2. Transport: a daunting challenge
 security of energy supply
-
Half of oil consumption in China relies on imports (80% by 2030)
-
Constant rise in oil price
-
Transport accounts for 1/3 of national oil consumption in China
 Passenger vehicles could increase ten-fold in the next 25 years in China and
transport oil consumption is expected to quadruple in 2030 relative to 2005.
 Air pollution: Emissions from motor vehicles have become the main source of air
pollution in China’s large- and medium-sized cities (Ministry of Environment, 2010)
 GHG emissions in road transport in 2030 would increase 5 fold in the BAU to
exceed the total emission in EU by 2025. Urban transport bears a significant
share of the total transport energy use and GHG emissions.
 Empirical studies show extremely high income elasticity of vehicle ownership and
fuel consumption in China (LR income elasticity is nearly 3!)
 appropriate policy instruments are needed to tackle the challenge in energy
demand and emission control in urban transport sector
9
Fast growing car market
• China is now the biggest car market in the world
– 13.8m vehicles were sold in China in 2010
– 2010: China has 90 times more cars than in 1990
– 4m private cars in Beijing alone!
• CATs estimates a 6-fold increase in private car
ownership in cities by 2030
• Ambitious targets of electrical vehicles: 1 million
EC by 2020 (but total vehicle population in China
would then stand at 260 m according to Wang et
al.2008)
10
Main drivers of emissions in
Chinese cities
Source : World Bank 2009
11
Ways of reducing CO2 in urban transport
– Operational – improve fuel economy by reducing energy use
and emissions per vehicle km (vkm) driven
– Strategic or TDM – optimisation of urban transport, ITS,
reducing total vehicle km per passenger km (pkm) or per
tonne km (tkm), through smart organisation of urban
planning and transport infrastructure; land use-transport
planning coordination in favour of mass transit
– Multi-modal urban public transport: BRT; metro; NMT (e.g.
cycling, walking),
– Fuel switching : using alternative fuel ( CNG, biofuels, electric
or hybrid cars, hydrogen?…)
– Econ instruments: e.g. car license auction in Shanghai,
congestion charge in London&Singapore, carbon (fuel) tax…
– VCF for public transport (e.g. betterment tax in Hong Kong
MRT financing)
12
3. Heating
• Heating area covers over 15 provinces; with 40%
of Chinese population
• Urban heating in northern China (130 Mtce per
year) accounts for one-fourth of building energy
consumption in the nation, responsible for a
significant proportion of GHGs and air pollutants
(e.g. SOx,NOx…) emissions
• Energy efficiency improvement in buildings and
DH contribute to energy security, air pollution
reduction and climate change mitigation
13
Policy perspective
• Public policies to support local climate initiatives (5 provinces and
8 cities have been selected in the ‘low carbon city pilot
programme’ by the NDRC in 2010) and accelerate EE
technological progress and penetration in urban infrastructure
• Establish citywise energy efficiency indicators in urban
infrastructure and GHG emissions inventory to monitor the
energy efficiency improvement in transparent MRV manner
• Gradually remove unnecessary energy subsidies to encourage
investment in EE improvements , pricing reform and other fiscal
incentives…
• Introducing sectoral approach in BEE in buildings, transport and
DH sectors
• Enhance international (EU-China bilateral in particular)
cooperation and joint venture capital with advanced countries in
urban infrastructure decarbonisation R&DD
14