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אורקל ינויח

**

עדי תרשעה רשפאל ידכ וגצוהו

אורקל בושח

*

,דבלב םיצלמומ המישרב םיעיפומה םירחא םירפסו םירמאמ

.תיתוכיא תינוירנימס הדובע תביתכל םורתתש

:ןויצה בכרה

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,הצרמה םע שארמ םואית אלל ,תונכומ יא וא תורדעיהמ האצותכ טרפר תגצה יא

.רנימסב ה/דימ

תינוירנימס הדובע

לתה תופתתשה לוטיב הניד

70%

יפל רתות רוחיאב הדובע תשגה .

2013

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2

ץוח תוינידמב תוטלחה תלבק 58434

הטלחהה תביבס ינייפאמ

** Vertzberger, Y.Y.I. (1990) The World in Their Minds . Stanford, CA: Stanford University

Press, pp. 21-35.

Dowes, R.M. (1988) Rational Choice in an Uncertain World . San Diego, CA: Harcourt

Brace Jovanovich, Ch. 2.

Nezias, J.M and Starbuck, W. (2008) “Decision Making With Inaccurate, Unreliable

Data”. In Hodgkinson G.P. and Starbuck, W.H. (eds.) The Oxford Handbook of

Organizational Decision Making, Oxford: Oxford University press, ch.4

** Brady, L. (1978) “The Situation and Foreign Policy," in East, M.A., Salmore, S.A. &

Hermann, C.F. (eds.), Why Nations Act . Beverly Hills: Sage, Ch. 9.

* Sprout, H. & Sprout, M. (1969) "Environmental Factors in the Study of International

Politics," in Rosenau, J.N. (ed.), International Politics and Foreign Policy (revised edition). New York: The Free Press, pp. 41-56.

Goertz, G. (1994) Contexts of International Politics . Cambridge: Cambridge University

Press, Ch. 2.

* Brecher, M., Steinberg, B. & Stein, J. (1969) "A Framework for Research on Foreign

Policy Behavior," Journal of Conflict Resolution , 13: 75-101.

Payne, J.W., Bettman, J.R. & Johnson, E.J. (1993) The Adaptive Decision-Maker .

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Ch. 2.

Vertzberger, Y.Y.I. (1998) Risk Taking and Decisionmaking , Stanford, CA: Stanford

University Press, Ch. 2.

Fingar, T. (2011) Reducing Uncertainty , Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, Chs.

1,3.

הטלחהה ידקומ רותיאו חותינה תמר

** Jervis, R. (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics . Princeton:

Princeton University Press, Ch. 1.

Larson, D.W. (1985) Origins of Containment , Princeton: Princeton: University Press, pp.

18-23.

Braybrooke, D. & Lindblom, C.E. (1969) "Types of Decision-Making," in Rosenau, J.N.

(ed.), International Politics and Foreign Policy (revised edition). New York: The Free

Press, pp. 207-216.

3

ץוח תוינידמב תוטלחה תלבק 58434

* Hermann, M.G. & Hermann, C.F. (1989) "Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and

How: An Empirical Inquiry, International Studies Quarterly , 33: 361-388.

Hermann, M.G. & Hermann, C.F. & Hagan, J.D. (1987) "How Decision Units Shape

Foreign Policy Behavior," in Hermann, C.F., Kegley, C.W. & Rosnau, J.N. (eds.), New

Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy . Boston: Unwin Hyman, Ch. 16.

** Hermann, M.G. (2001) "How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy: A Theoretical

Framework," International Studies Review , 3(2): 47-81.

Einhorn, H.J. & Hogarth, R.M. (1988) "Behavioral Decision Theory: Processes of

Judgment and Choice," in Bell, D.E., Raiffa, H. & Tversky, A. (eds.), Decision-

Making . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Ch. 6.

Onuf, N. (1995) "Levels," European Journal of International Relations, 1: 35-58.

Mintz, A. and De Rouen, K. (2010) Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making , New

York: Cambridge University Press, Ch. 2

תוטלחה לבקמכ דיחיה

:םייביטינגוק םיטביה .א

** Holsti, O.R. (1976) "Foreign Policy Decision-Makers Viewed Cognitively,” in Axelrod,

R.A. (ed.), Structure of Decision . Princeton: Princeton University Press, Ch. 2.

Vertzberger, Y.Y.I. (1990) The World in Their Minds , pp. 35-48.

Tetlock, P. & McGuire, C. (1986) "Cognitive Perspectives on Foreign Policy," in Long, S.

(ed.), Political Behavior Annual , Vol. 1. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, pp. 255-273.

Steinbruner, J.D. (1974) The Cybernetic Theory of Decision , Princeton: Princeton

University Press, Ch. 4.

Walker, S.G. (1990) "The Evolution of Operational Code Analysis,”

Political

Psychology , 11: 403-418.

** George, A.L. (1980) Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy. Boulder: Westview

Press, Chs. 2 & 3.

Farnham, B. (1990) "Political Cognition and Decision-Making," Political Psychology , 11:

83-111.

* Jervis, (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics , pp. 117-128, 172-

195.

Gardner, H. (1997) Leading Minds . London: Harper & Collins, Ch. 3.

4

ץוח תוינידמב תוטלחה תלבק 58434

Lipshitz, R. & Strauss, O. (1997) “Coping with Uncertainty: A Naturalistic Decision-

Making Analysis,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision-Making , 69: 149-163.

Sarbin, T.R. (1998) “Believed-In Imaginings: A Narrative Approach,” in de Rivera, J. &

Sarbin, T.R. (eds.), Believed-In Imaginings , Washington, D.C.: American Psychological

Association, pp. 15-30.

Byrne, R.M.J. (2005) The Rational Imagination , Cambridge,Mass.: The MIT Press, Chs

1,5,6.

* Eidelson, R.J. and Eidelson J.I. (2003) "Dangerous Ideas: Five Beliefs that Propel Groups

Towards Conflict", American Psychologist , 58:182-192.

:םיישגר םיכרצו םיטביה .ב

** Steinberg, B. (1991) "Shame and Humiliation in the Cuban Missile Crisis: A

Psychoanalytic Perspective," Political Psychology , 12: 653-690.

* Volkan, V.D. (1988) The Need to Have Enemies and Allies . Northvale: Jason Aronson,

Chs. 7, 12 & 16.

Jervis, (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Ch. 10.

Janis, I.L. & Mann, L. (1977) Decision-Making . New York: The Free Press, Chs. 3 & 4.

(

תירבעל םגרות רפסה

)

* Marcus, G.E. (2000) “Emotions in Politics,” in Polsby, N.W. (ed.), Annual Review of

Political Science , Vol. 3, Palo Alto, CA: Annual Reviews, pp. 221-250.

Fiske, S.T. & Taylor, S.E. (1991) Social Cognition , 2nd edition. New York: McGraw

Hill, pp. 201-229.

Mann, L. (1992) "Stress, Affect and Risk Taking," in Yates, J.F. (ed.) Risk Taking

Behavior . Chichester, Eng.: John Wiley & Sons.

* Isbell et al. (2008) "Affect and Politics: Effects on Judgment, Processing and Information

Seeking" in Redlawsk, D. P. (ed.) Feeling Politics , New York, NY: Pallgrave, Ch. 5.

Parkinson, B., Tottedell, P., Briner, R.B. & Reynolds, S. (1996) Changing Moods: The

Psychology of Mood and Mood Regulation . London: Longman.

6 קרפ ,רטמ תאצוה :ביבא לת ,םימח םימ ויה אל םכל םג ) 2010 ( .י ,רועסי

:תוישיא תונוכת .ג

5

ץוח תוינידמב תוטלחה תלבק 58434

Mischel, W. (1977) "The Interaction of Person and Situation," in Magnusson, D. &

Endler, N.S. (eds.), Personality at the Crossroads . Hillsdale: Erlbaum, pp. 333-352.

** Hermann, M.G. (1978) "Effects of Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders on

Foreign Policy," in East et al.

, Why Nations Act , pp. 49-68.

** Greenstein, F. (1975) Personality and Politics . New York: W.W. Norton, Ch. 2.

Etheredge, L.S. (1978) "Personality Effects on American Foreign Policy,” American

Political Science Review , 72: 434-451.

Willner, A.R. (1984) The Spellbinders . New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, Ch. 1.

Kellerman, B. (2004) Bad Leadership , Boston, MA: Harvard Business School, pp. 29-48.

Winter, D. (1992) "Personality and Foreign Policy: Historical Overview of Research," in

Singer, E. & Hudson, V. (eds.), Political Psychology and Foreign Policy . Boulder, CO:

Westview Press, Ch. 4.

* Ozer, D.J. & Reise, S.P. (1994) "Personality Assessment," Annual Review of Psychology ,

45: 357-368.

Kaarbo, J. (1997) “Prime Minister Leadership Styles in Foreign Policy Decision-

Making: A Framework for Research,”

Political Psychology , 18: 553-582.

Cottam, M.L., et al., (2010) Introduction To Pplitical Psychology (2 nd

York: Psychology Press, Ch. 5

edition), New

* Mondak, J.J. (2010) Personality and Foundations of Political Behavior , Cambridge:

Cambridge University Press, Ch.3.

* Munsford, M.D, Scott, G., and Hunter, S.T. (2006) " Theory – Charismatic, Ideological and Pragmatic Leaders: How Do They Lead, Why Do They Lead, and Who Do They

Lead?" In Munsford, M.D. (ed.) Pathways To Outstanding Leadership , Mahawa, NJ:

Lawrence Eresaum Associates, pp. 25-50.

Byman, D.L. & Pollack, K.M. (2001). “Let Us Now Praise Great Men: Bringing the

Statesmen Back In,”

International Security , 25(4): 107-146.

Post, J.N. (2004) Leaders and Their Followers in a Dangerous World , Ithaca, NY:

Cornell University Press, ch. 2.

תישפנו תיזיפ תואירב :םייטרקניסואידיא םיטביה .ד

Wiegele, T. (1993) "Decisionmaking in an International Crisis,”

International Studies

Quarterly , 17: 295-336.

6

ץוח תוינידמב תוטלחה תלבק 58434

** Post, J.M. & Robins, R.S. (1993) When Illness Strikes the Leader . New Haven: Yale

University Press, Chs. 1 & 7.

Kuchorski, A. (1984) "On Being Sick and Famous," Political Psychology , 5: 69-82.

Robins, R.S. & Post, J.M. (1995) "Choosing a Healthy President,” Political Psychology ,

16: 841-860.

* McDermott, R. (2008) Presidential Leadership, Illness and Decisionmaking, New York,

NY: Cambridge University Press, Ch. 2.

תוטלחה לבקמ ףוגכ הצובקה

** Gaenslen, F. (1992) "Decision-Making Groups," in Singer, E. & Hudson, V. (eds.),

Political Psychology and Foreign Policy . Boulder: Westview Press, Ch. 7.

* ‘t Hart, P., Stern, E.K. & Sundelius, B. (1997) “Foreign Policy-Making at the Top:

Political Group Dynamics.” In ‘t Hart, P., Stern, E.K. & Sundelius, B. (eds.), Beyond

Groupthink . Ann Arbor, MI: Michigan University Press, pp. 3-29.

Aldage, R.J. & Fuller, S.R. (1993) "Beyond Fiasco: A Reappraisal of the Groupthink

Phenomenon and a New Model of Group Decision Processes," Psychological Bulletin ,

113: 533-552.

Meltsner, A.J. (1990) Rules for Rulers . Philadelphia: Temple University Press, Ch. 2.

Esser, J.K. (1998) “Alive and Well After 25 Years: A Review of Groupthink Research,”

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , 73: 116-141.

** Janis, I.L. (1983) Groupthink . Boston: Houghton Mifflin, Chs. 8 & 10.

* ‘t Hart, P. (1990) Groupthink in Government . Amsterdam: Swet & Zeitlinger, Chs.1 & 2.

* Allison, G. & Zelikow, P. (1999) Essence of Decision . New York: Longman, Ch. 5.

Vertzberger (1990) The World in Their Minds , pp. 222-246.

Maoz, Z. (1990) "Framing the National Interest: The Manipulations of Foreign Policy

Decisions in Group Settings," World Politics , 43: 77-110.

Whyte, G. & Levi, A.S. (1994) "The Origin and Function of the Reference Point in Risky

Group Decision-Making: The Case of the Cuban Missile Crisis," Journal of Behavioral

Decision-Making , 7: 243-260.

Vertzberger, Y.Y.I. (1997) “Collective Risk Taking: The Decision-Making Group.” In ‘t

Hart, P., Stern, E.K. & Sundelius, B. (eds.), Beyond Groupthink . Ann Arbor, MI:

Michigan University Press, pp. 275-307.

7

ץוח תוינידמב תוטלחה תלבק 58434

Garrison, J.A. (1999) Games Advisors Play: Foreign Policy in the Nixon and Carter

Administration , College Station, TX: Texas A & M University Press.

Hermann, C.F. et al. (2001). “Resolve, Accept or Avoid,” International Studies Review ,

3(2): 133-168.

תוטלחה לבקמ ףוגכ ןוגראה

* March, J.C. (1994) A Primer on Decision-Making . New York: The Free Press, Ch. 2.

Williamson, S.R. (1979) "Theories of Organizational Processes and Foreign Policy

Outcomes," in Lauren, P.G. (ed.), Diplomacy . New York: The Free Press, Ch. 6.

** Allison, G.T. & Halperin, M. (1972) "Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some

Political Implications," in Tanter, R. & Ullman, R. (eds.), On Theory and Policy in

International Relations . Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 40-79.

* Steinbruner (1974) The Cybernetic Theory of Decision , Ch. 3.

* Halperin, M. (1974) Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy . Washington D.C.:

Brookings Institution, Chs. 3, 6 & 7.

Downs, A. (1967) Inside Bureaucracy . Boston: Little Brown & Company, Chs. 3 & 7.

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Retrospect and Prospect," International Security , 17(2): 112-146.

* Royer, I. and Langley, A. (2008) “Linking Rationality, Politics, and Routines in

Organizational Decision Making

”. In Hodgkinson G.P. and Starbuck, W.H. (eds.) The

Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making, Oxford: Oxford University Press, ch. 13.

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Houndmills: Macmillan Press, Chs. 2 & 9.

* Hill, C. (2003). The Changing Politics of Foreign Policy . New York, NY: Palgrave,

Ch. 4.

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Management , pp.393-409. Malden, MA: Blackwell.

יטקרפו יביטמרונ לדומכ תוילנויצר

8

ץוח תוינידמב תוטלחה תלבק 58434

* Simon, H.A. (1976) Administrative Behavior (3rd edition). New York: The Free Press,

Ch. 4.

Cohen, Y. (1994) Radicals, Reformers and Reactionaries . Chicago: University of

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March, J.C. & Simon, H.A. (1965) "The Concept of Rationality," in Singer, D.J. (ed.),

Human Behavior and International Politics . Chicago: Rand McNally, pp. 340-347.

Nozick, R. (1993) The Nature of Rationality . Princeton: Princeton University Press, Chs.

3 & 5.

Steinbruner (1974) The Cybernetic Theory of Decision , Ch. 2.

* Simon, H. (1985) "Human Nature in Politics," American Political Science Review , 79:

293-304.

Bendor, J. & Hammond, T.H. (1992) "Rethinking Allison’s Models," American Political

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* Green, D.P. & Shapiro, I. (1994) Pathologies of Rational Choice . New Haven: Yale

University Press, Ch. 2.

* Stein, J.G. & Tanter, R. (1980) Rational Decision-Making . Columbus: Ohio State

University Press, Chs. 1 & 3.

Janis & Mann (1977) Decision-Making , Ch. 2.

* Levy, J.S. (1997) "Prospect Theory and the Cognitive-Rational Debate," in Geva, N. &

Mintz, A (eds.), Decisionmaking on War and Peace . Boulder, CO: Lynn Reiner , pp. 33-

50.

Levy, J.S. (1992) "Prospect Theory and International Relations

,

Theoretical Applications and Analytical Problems," Political Psychology , 3: 283-310.

Kelley, S. (1995) "The Promise and Limitations of Rational Choice Theory," Critical

Review , 9: 95-106.

** Stein, J.G. (1992) "International Co-Operation and Loss Aversion: Framing the

Problem," International Journal , 47: 202-234.

Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1986) "Choices, Values and Frames," in Arkes, H.R. &

Hammond, R.K. (eds.), Judgment and Decisionmaking . Cambridge: Cambridge

University Press, Ch. 11.

* Vis, B (2011) “Prospect Theory and Political Decision making”,

Political Studies Review ,

9:334-343

השיפתו הבישח תויועטו תויטה

9

ץוח תוינידמב תוטלחה תלבק 58434

Elster J. (1990) "When Rationality Fails," in Cook, K.S. & Alvi, M. (eds.), The Limits of

Rationality . Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, pp. 19-50.

** Vertzberger (1990) The World in Their Minds , pp. 137-160.

Fiske & Taylor (1984) Social Cognition , pp. 72-88.

* Jervis (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Ch. 9.

Lebow, N.R. (1981) Between Peace and War . Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University

Press, Ch. 5.

* Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1982) "Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and

Biases," in Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A. (eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty .

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Ch. 1.

** Kruglanski, A.W. (2004) The Psychology of Closed Mindness. New York: Psychology

Press, Ch. 2.

George, R. Z. and Bruce, J. B. (eds.) (2008) Analyzing Intelligence , Washington D.C:

Georgetown University Press.

6 םיקרפ ,החותפה הטיסרבינואה :ביבא לת .

תיתרוקיב

:תא תירבעב אורקל םג רשפא

הבישח ) 1996 ( .ע ,יקסרבטו ,.ו ,ןמרביל

Sutherland, S. (1992) Irrationality . New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press.

Nisbett, R. & Rose, L. (1980) Human Inference . Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, Ch. 8.

Stein, J.G. (1988) "Building Politics Into Psychology: The Misperception of Threat,"

Political Psychology , 9: 245-271.

Bazerman, M.H. (1994) Judgment in Managerial Decision-Making (3rd edition). New

York: John Wiley & Sons, Ch. 2.

** Walker, S.G and Malici, A. (2011) U.S Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes,

Stanford CA: Stanford University Press, Chs.1,2

Kahneman, D, (2011) Thinking Fast and slow London: Penguin Books, pp. 109-198

רבשמ תותעב תוטלחה תלבק

** Brecher, M. (1993) Crises in World Politics . Oxford: Pergamon Press, pp. 2-8, 25-29, &

Ch. 6.

* Brecher, M. (2008) International Political Earthquakes Ann Arbor, MI: University of

Michigan Press, Chs. 12-13.

10

ץוח תוינידמב תוטלחה תלבק 58434

* Hermann, C.F. & Brady, L.P. (1972) "Alternative Models of International Crises

Behavior," in Hermann, C.F. (ed.), International Crises . New York: The Free Press, Ch.

12.

** Lebow (1981) Between Peace and War , Ch. 8.

Roberts, J.M. (1988) Decision-Making During International Crises . London: Mcmillan

Press, Chs. 6 & 7.

Snyder, H.G. & Diesing, P. (1977) Conflict Among Nations . Princeton: Princeton

University Press, Ch. 6.

Oneal, J.R. (1988) "The Rationality of Decisionmaking During International Crises,"

Polity , 20: 598-622.

Tamuz, M. and Lewis, E.T. (2008) “Facing the Threat of Disaster: Decision Making

When the Stakes are High”. In Hodgkinson G.P. and Starbuck, W.H. (eds.) The Oxford

Handbook of Organizational Decision Making , Oxford: Oxford University press, ch.8

Holsti, O.R. (1988) "Crisis Decision-Making," in Tetlock, P.E. et al . (eds.), Behavior,

Society and Nuclear War , Vol. 1. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 8-37.

Pearson, C.M. & Clair, J.A. (1998) “Reframing Crisis Management,”

The Academy of

Management Review , 23: 59-76.

Haney, P.J. (1992). Organizing for Foreign Policy Crises . Ann Arbor, MI: The

University of Michigan Press, Ch. 5.

Post, J.M. (2004) Leaders and Their Followers in a Dangerous World , Ithaca, NY:

Cornell University Press, ch. 5.

* Boin, A., 't Hart, P., Stern, E., and Sundelius, B. (2005) The Politics of Crisis Management ,

New York: Cambridge University Press, Chs. 4,5,6.

רזוח ןוזיהמ הדימלו תוטלחה םושיי

** Halperin (1974) Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy , Chs. 13, 14 & 15.

Staw, B.M. & Ross, J. (1989) "Understanding Behavior in Escalation Situations,"

Science , 246: 216-220.

Janis & Mann (1977) Decision-Making , Chs. 6 & 12.

Clarke, M. & Smith, S. (1985) "Conclusions," in Smith, S. & Clarke, M. (eds.), Foreign

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11

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