ABSTRAK PENELITIAN KOMPETISI INTERNAL
TAHUN 2014
Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat (LP2M)
Universitas Hasanuddin
Kampus Unhas Tamalanrea
Jln. Perintis Kemerdekaan KM. 10 Makassar
Telp. : 0411 587032, , 582500, 588888 Fax.(0411) 587032, 584024
Website : http://www.unhas.ac.id/lppm email : lp2m@unhas.ac.ids
MODELING OF AN EARTHQUAKE RISK
AS A POINT PROCESS FROM INDONESIAN REGION
1
Sunusi N, 1Kresna A J, 1Islamiyati A, 1Herdiani E.T
1
Mathematics Department Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences
Hasanuddin University, Indonesia.
Abstract
Study on geophysical risk is still an interesting topic to study. In the seismological context,
geophysical risk/hazard rate (earthquake hazard) is defined as the expected rate of occurrence of
an event per unit time. In this research, the occurrence of an earthquake was considered as a
renewal process in which the last earthquake event was considered as an observed event for the
next earthquake. In this process, we assumed that the inter event time was exponentially
distributed. To estimate the parameters of model, we used a Bayesian approach in which the
Gamma parameter was used as prior information. The result showed that earthquake risk in some
parts of Indonesia was depending on the inter event time and the number of earthquake
occurrence.
Keywords: Geophysical risk, Point process, Renewal process, Bayesian.
Mathematics Subject Classification : 62M86.