ACRIS Climate Variability Update 2005-2011 Updated information to that provided in Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse This project is supported by Ninti One Limited, through funding from the Australian Government's Caring for our Country 1 The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government or the Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication. 2 ACRIS Climate Variability Update 2005-2011 Updated information to that provided in Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse Gary Bastin, ACRIS Management Unit, CSIRO, PO Box 2111, Alice Springs NT 0871 Key points In 2008, ACRIS documented changes in the rangelands at national and regional scales in the report Rangelands 2008-Taking the Pulse. That report was based on data for the period 1992 to 2005. Recent years have well illustrated the extreme climate variability that Australia experiences, with much of the continent changing from severe drought during parts of the last decade to some locations experiencing their wettest period on record. This document provides updated information on seasonal quality of bioregions across the rangelands, using data on annual (autumn to autumn) rainfall and modelled pasture growth. ‘Seasonal quality’ is the term ACRIS uses to rank the degree of climate variability from one year to the next. Seasonal quality broadly describes the relative value of recent rainfall on biological functioning. Relative value (quality) is judged with reference to the longer term record. ‘Biological functioning’ broadly means vegetation growth as a basic resource for both livestock (forage) and fauna (food, shelter). In summary: Rainfall was below average to average across much of the eastern and central rangelands between 2005-06 and 2007-08 (i.e. poorer seasonal quality). Seasonal quality then improved across the eastern rangelands, based on rainfall, but remained poor in pastoral Western Australia, particularly in 2009-10. The rangelands have experienced very good seasonal conditions over the last two years (2010-11 and 2011-12) with annual rainfalls being amongst the highest recorded for many bioregions. Modelled pasture growth provides an alternative indicator of seasonal quality. It indicates the potential for pasture growth based on rainfall, soil quality and regional grazing pressure by livestock, feral herbivores and kangaroos. In some areas, this potential may not be realised because of past land degradation. Modelled pasture growth generally supported the spatial and temporal patterns of seasonal quality indicated by rainfall but there were some regional differences. In particular, pasture recovery tended to lag rainfall coming out of the recent drought in the southern and eastern rangelands. Further, in several tropical northern bioregions much of the increased rainfall was less effective, indicated by smaller responses in the pasture growth index in most years. 3 Published climate reviews The Bureau of Meteorology has published annual climate summaries since 2001 (see www.bom.gov.au/climate/annual_sum/annsum.shtml). Longer term trends in climate variability are reported in the ‘State of the Climate’ series produced by CSIRO and the Bureau (available at www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Understanding/State-of-theClimate.aspx). Key points, with respect to temperature and rainfall, from the 2012 report include: Temperature Each decade has been warmer than the previous decade since the 1950s. Australian annual average daily mean temperatures have increased by 0.9 oC since 1910. 2010 and 2011 were Australia’s coolest years recorded since 2001 due to two consecutive La Nina events. Rainfall Southwest Western Australia has experienced long-term reductions in rainfall during the winter half of the year. There has been a trend over recent decades towards increased spring and summer monsoonal rainfall across Australia’s north, higher-than-normal rainfall across the centre, and decreased late autumn and winter rainfall across the south. Climate variability in the rangelands Rainfall is the major driver of ecosystem and landscape processes in Australia’s rangelands. The amount of rain received, its timing and intensity, and any follow-up rains, all have a profound effect on the growth and composition of vegetation (see for example Figure 3.1, page 30, in Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse). A common pattern is for rainfall variability to produce large changes in herbage growth but minimally affect overall rangeland condition (defined broadly as the capacity of vegetation to respond to rainfall). Of course there are exceptions: serious degradation events have occurred in the past through excessive grazing pressure in drought (see examples in McKeon et al., 2004). Rainfall variability occurs over two timeframes: (i) within year, or season-to-season variability (e.g. wet vs. dry, summer vs. winter) and (ii) between year, or year-to-year variability (e.g. dry years vs. wet years). ACRIS is more interested in longer-term climate variability as a driver of vegetation change. At broader spatial scale, we use map products to show how recent rainfall compares with the long-term record (pages 31 to 36 in Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse). At more local scale, such as at pastoral monitoring sites, ranked scores of ‘seasonal quality’1 are used to help identify grazing effects on recent vegetation change (examples in Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse and the Landscape Function and Critical Stock Forage updates at www.environment.gov.au/land/rangelands/acris/index.html). ‘Seasonal quality’ reports the relative value of recent rainfall on biological functioning. Relative value (quality) is judged with reference to the longer term record. ‘Biological functioning’ broadly means vegetation growth as a basic resource for both livestock (forage) and fauna (food, shelter). 1 4 This brief report updates, since 2005, climate variability information for the rangelands. It follows the presentation style used for reporting in Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse. Seasonal quality Yearly rainfall can broadly describe seasonal quality. To avoid splitting the northern wet season between calendar years, ACRIS uses an April-to-March rainfall year. Rainfall recorded at observing stations is interpolated to a gridded surface by the Bureau of Meteorology where grid cells are 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude (approximately 5 km by 5 km). The interpolated data are most reliable where the density of recording stations is highest. The driest and wettest years in the rangelands in the recent past are shown in Figure 1. Much of the central and southern rangelands received <150 mm rainfall between April 2004 and March 2005 and >500 mm for the same period in 2010-11. >1000 mm <100 mm Rainfall 1/4/2004 to 31/3/2005 Rainfall 1/4/2010 to 31/3/2011 Figure 1. Gridded rainfall in the rangelands for a particularly dry year (left) and very wet year (right). Lines show bioregion boundaries (IBRA v6.1). Data source: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap (accessed 22 May 2012). Maps compiled by the ACRIS-MU. Rain can fall in large amounts but not all of this is available, or useful, for plant growth. ACRIS uses deciles of annual rainfall to more usefully indicate seasonal quality. An alternative indicator of seasonal quality is modelled herbage availability, either as annual growth or total standing dry matter (TSDM). This approach has two advantages over rainfall for indicating seasonal quality: 5 1. It estimates how much of each rainfall event is used for pasture growth. This effectively discounts both small rainfall events that are ineffective for initiating growth and very large events where much rainfall may be lost to the pasture layer as runoff or deep percolation within the soil profile. 2. Most of the rangelands have infertile soils and in particularly wet periods, pasture growth is limited by nutrient deficiency (particularly nitrogen availability). Appropriately calibrated and validated models use soil properties to suitably limit pasture growth when soil moisture is abundant. Pasture growth following rainfall is spatially modelled by AussieGRASS 2 and those data can be expressed as total amount (e.g. kg/ha of annual growth or TSDM) or as a relative index (e.g. deciles of annual growth) to describe past seasons. The AussieGRASS estimate of pasture growth may exceed actual growth. This is particularly the case where past land degradation has reduced the composition of perennial pasture species and reduced rainfall infiltration through erosion. Data sources and processing Recent monthly grids of rainfall data for Australia were downloaded from the Bureau of Meteorology (www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap) and accumulated to annual amounts for the AprilMarch period. These grids were added to existing data extending back to 1890 (compiled for Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse). Data for each April-March period were spatially averaged across rangeland bioregions (IBRA v6.1). Each April-March rainfall for each bioregion was then calculated as a decile rank against the long-term record (i.e. 1890-91 to 2011-12). The Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence provided AussieGRASS estimates of spatially-averaged annual growth and total standing dry matter for each rangeland bioregion between March of one year and February of the following year. These data were for the period 1890-91 to 2011-12. Bioregion TSDM data were used in Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse to describe seasonal quality (along with various indices of rainfall). Relatively high levels of TSDM indicate a body of carry-over feed for livestock, reduced drought risk and better ground cover. In many bioregions, it may also indicate increased risk of fire. Here we use deciles of annual growth (calculated as for rainfall) as expected growth probably better indicates seasonal quality compared with TSDM. TSDM is dependent on carry-over from the previous year, is reduced by grazing and may also be affected by fire. The national fire record extends back to 1997 and recent years of modelled growth data may have a lower TSDM ranking than those years prior to the recent fire record. Simulated annual growth is less affected by preceding fires. Deciles of seasonal quality Recent deciles of seasonal quality based on either rainfall or AussieGRASS-simulated herbage growth are shown for every second year between 2005-06 and 2011-12 in Figure 2. As noted earlier, this six-year period spans some of the driest and wettest years experienced since European settlement. The two data types indicate that: 2 www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/about/researchprojects/aussiegrass/index.html (accessed 20 June 2012) 6 Deciles of rainfall 1/4/2005 to 31/3/2006 Deciles of rainfall 1/4/2007 to 31/3/2008 AussieGRASS deciles of growth 1/3/2005 to 28/2/2006 Legend highest decile AussieGRASS deciles of growth 1/3/2007 to 29/2/2008 lowest decile Deciles of rainfall 1/4/2009 to 31/3/2010 AussieGRASS deciles of growth 1/3/2009 to 28/2/2010 Deciles of rainfall 1/4/2011 to 31/3/2012 AussieGRASS deciles of growth 1/3/2011 to 29/2/2012 Figure 2. Seasonal quality indicated by deciles of annual rainfall and AussieGRASS simulated herbage growth. Lines show bioregion boundaries (IBRA v6.1). Data sources: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap and Qld Climate Change Centre of Excellence. Maps: ACRIS- MU. 7 The western half of the rangelands received well above-average rainfall between April 2005 and March 2006. Seasonal quality was average or below average in the east, particularly in the Mulga Lands and Brigalow Belt North bioregions. The annual growth data suggest poorer seasonal quality in parts of the north-eastern rangelands for the same period. This was particularly the case for Cape York Peninsula where close to median rainfall translated to below-average growth. In the south, the Gawler bioregion (SA) also had a lower decile of growth than its corresponding rainfall. Based on rainfall, much of central and southern Australia had average to belowaverage seasonal quality in 2007-08 (April to March period). Eastern, northern and western rangeland bioregions had generally well above-average rainfall. Decile-ranked pasture growth suggests similar poor seasonal quality for bioregions in and neighbouring the Simpson Desert (Simpson Strzelecki Dunefields, Channel Country, Stony Plains, Gawler and Flinders Lofty Block). Lower rainfall did not adversely affect growth in the western deserts (Gibson, Little Sandy, Great Sandy, Great Victoria) although AussieGRASS simulation may not be well calibrated here. Elsewhere, deciles of expected pasture growth were lower than corresponding rainfall in the Riverina and Murray Darling Depression bioregions (NSW and neighbouring SA) and in the Yalgoo and Coolgardie bioregions (south-western rangelands in WA). Seasonal quality improved across much of the south eastern rangelands in 2009-10. Contrasting with this improvement, the Pilbara, Carnarvon and Gascoyne bioregions in WA experienced very dry conditions between April 2009 and March 2010 and this translated to much below-average growth for the similar period. The growth data suggest that pasture recovery in parts of the southern and eastern rangelands lagged the increased rainfall. The Einasleigh Uplands, Darling Riverine Plains, Riverina, Murray Darling Depression, Broken Hill Complex, Flinders Lofty Block, Gawler and Nullarbor bioregions had lower deciles of pasture growth than rainfall. Simulated pasture growth was much below-average in far northern Australia (Victoria Bonaparte, Daly Basin, Darwin Coastal, Pine Creek, Arnhem Plateau and Cape York Peninsula). Rainfall was much above average throughout the rangelands between April 2011 and March 2012 (and similarly for 2010-11 apart from the Coolgardie bioregion). High deciles of simulated pasture growth were also present between March 2011 and February 2012 apart from far northern Australia, particularly Cape York Peninsula. Two caveats accompany this assessment: (i) actual growth is likely to have been less than expected growth where past land degradation has altered pasture composition and increased runoff due to erosion and (ii) very high levels of pasture growth do not necessarily translate to improved liveweight gain due to nitrogen dilution and reduced protein in standing feed. 8 Bioregion profiles of seasonal quality Amounts of April-March rainfall spatially averaged across rangeland bioregions and their corresponding deciles are listed in Appendix 1. These data are for the period between 200001 and 2011-12. Similar data for modelled pasture growth between March of one year and February of the following are in Appendix 2. These data can be plotted to profile changes in seasonal quality over time for selected bioregions. Example time traces for four bioregions (Figure 3) are illustrated in Figure 4. Note that decile 0 represents the lowest spatially-averaged value for a bioregion between 1890-91 and 2011-12. Higher deciles represent 10% blocks, e.g. decile 10 rainfall is the wettest 10% of years. Figure 3. Location of bioregions whose time-trace profiles of decile rainfall and pasture growth are plotted in Figure 4. The example profiles in Figure 4 show that: Seasonal quality in the Desert Uplands was poor in the middle part of the last decade and then improved to be very good in more recent years. Ranking of seasonal quality based on either deciles of April-March rainfall or simulated pasture growth was broadly similar. There was a similar trend in the Riverina although improvement in seasonal quality was more recent than in the Desert Uplands. As noted above, the increase in deciles of growth at the end of this reporting period slightly lagged rainfall. Overall, deciles of rainfall were a more variable indicator of seasonal quality than deciles of expected growth. 9 The two indicators provide a mixed assessment of recent seasonal quality in the Coolgardie bioregion. Deciles of rainfall suggested quite variable seasonal quality with large changes from one year to the next. Deciles of pasture growth also varied from one year to the next, at times followed the same pattern as rainfall but between 2007-08 and 2008-09 were much lower. Rainfall deciles for the Daly Basin indicated average to above-average seasonal quality since 2000-01. The rainfall record also suggested better seasonal quality than that indicated by modelled pasture growth. Conclusion Seasonal conditions in rangeland Australia between 2005-06 and 2011-12 varied from some of the worst experienced since European settlement to among the best. ACRIS uses deciles of rainfall and modelled herbage growth to indicate seasonal quality. Deciles of rainfall for the April-March annual periods were below average to average across much of the eastern and central rangelands between 2005-06 and 2007-08. Seasonal quality then improved across the eastern rangelands but remained poor in pastoral Western Australia, particularly in 200910. The rangelands have experienced very good seasonal conditions over the last two years (2010-11 and 2011-12) with rainfall being decile eight or higher in most bioregions. Deciles of expected pasture growth generally supported the spatial and temporal patterns of seasonal quality indicated by rainfall but there were some regional differences. In particular, pasture recovery tended to lag rainfall coming out of the recent drought in the southern and eastern rangelands. Deciles of pasture growth were also generally less than those of rainfall in some tropical northern bioregions. References Bastin, G. and ACRIS Management Committee (2008). Rangelands 2008 – Taking the pulse. Canberra. Published on behalf of the ACRIS Management Committee by the National Land and Water Resources Audit. Available at http://www.environment.gov.au/land/rangelands/acris/index.html McKeon, G.M., Hall, W.B., Henry, B.K., Stone, G.S. and Watson, I.W. (2004). Pasture degradation and recovery in Australia’s rangelands: Learning from History. Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy. 10 10 9 Decile of April-March Rainfall / TSDM 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 rainfall growth 1 0 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-01 2011-12 Desert Uplands Riverina Coolgardie Daly Basin Figure 4. Time traces of decile rainfall and decile pasture growth for selected rangeland bioregions. Graphs: ACRIS-MU. 11 Appendix 1, part 1. Spatially-averaged gridded rainfall (mm) for rangeland bioregions. Rainfall is from April of one year to March of the following. IBRA Arnhem Coast Arnhem Plateau Brigalow Belt North Brigalow Belt South Broken Hill Complex Burt Plain Cape York Peninsula Carnarvon Central Arnhem Central Kimberley Central Ranges Channel Country Cobar Peneplain Coolgardie Daly Basin Dampierland Darling Riverine Plains Darwin Coastal Davenport Murchison Ranges Desert Uplands Einasleigh Uplands Finke Flinders Lofty Block Gascoyne Gawler Gibson Desert Great Sandy Desert 2000-01 1908 1885 776 691 205 780 1802 169 1538 1083 423 344 496 288 1521 907 527 1913 935 707 1077 361 266 259 168 407 685 2001-02 1083 1078 417 490 146 407 1211 70 1030 848 621 145 286 207 1124 522 333 1383 450 456 701 476 227 220 224 432 392 2002-03 1362 1284 312 328 98 197 1153 117 1120 603 123 92 183 207 933 569 188 1442 327 263 474 130 138 222 136 201 253 2003-04 1498 1521 481 612 193 273 1246 213 1303 961 343 168 328 382 1573 762 486 1803 426 444 633 206 192 265 139 332 467 2004-05 1233 1194 396 376 149 185 1158 172 930 577 190 102 261 188 956 415 356 1263 177 370 578 128 204 142 170 185 225 2005-06 1157 1232 392 497 196 382 1276 377 1005 1017 384 150 364 353 1318 764 423 1566 549 379 626 215 251 443 188 389 455 2006-07 1457 1843 544 391 136 418 1620 49 1504 788 235 211 241 244 1235 718 276 1962 478 500 866 152 189 202 180 344 408 2007-08 1506 1533 1312 956 212 155 1767 432 1582 1012 196 161 569 265 1392 753 599 2031 213 2008-09 1160 1099 903 664 211 311 1414 275 1189 1014 216 258 350 350 1359 864 470 1625 403 1288 1222 141 176 418 133 87 149 1084 1483 202 216 346 173 102 190 2009-10 1390 1187 686 728 264 450 1145 90 1249 531 258 380 493 233 982 493 594 1442 397 690 777 254 283 120 216 153 325 2010-11 1641 1724 1135 1058 642 747 1708 553 1679 1240 534 659 631 251 1573 1011 632 1868 938 953 1303 595 516 423 363 509 649 2011-12 1532 1408 805 842 341 295 1530 273 1128 968 415 303 559 334 1358 843 679 1783 414 779 865 310 332 360 216 412 460 12 IBRA Great Victoria Desert Gulf Coastal Gulf Fall and Uplands Gulf Plains Hampton Little Sandy Desert MacDonnell Ranges Mitchell Grass Downs Mount Isa Inlier Mulga Lands Murchison Murray Darling Depression Northern Kimberley Nullarbor Ord Victoria Plain Pilbara Pine Creek Riverina Simpson Strzelecki Dunefields Stony Plains Sturt Plateau Tanami Tiwi Cobourg Victoria Bonaparte Yalgoo 2000-01 222 1863 1476 1155 346 368 717 708 828 421 262 300 1398 226 1133 439 1893 403 290 2001-02 330 791 675 656 283 389 424 322 326 279 239 201 786 251 633 243 1255 260 198 2002-03 179 1197 947 527 179 279 178 262 317 123 187 125 865 193 579 278 1199 156 93 2003-04 220 1196 1038 690 317 360 230 390 548 343 259 231 1371 224 834 438 1588 311 101 2004-05 175 696 545 534 273 147 175 255 398 212 179 198 849 180 497 122 1081 276 75 2005-06 260 1228 934 850 332 408 313 366 568 246 389 303 1364 308 869 675 1321 339 142 2006-07 194 920 820 836 266 380 294 402 394 267 211 188 1168 198 601 359 1845 194 152 2007-08 95 962 948 1087 203 151 143 405 399 563 265 301 1481 150 820 386 1619 346 61 2008-09 118 960 1063 1356 276 132 312 559 916 376 250 259 1348 203 802 462 1397 253 127 2009-10 178 1068 790 846 262 123 489 474 520 605 176 330 893 174 505 163 1191 385 253 2010-11 457 1354 1210 1253 513 422 885 731 864 639 372 675 1802 403 1019 460 1725 731 549 2011-12 294 1082 899 932 326 409 312 485 553 569 359 391 1451 219 702 423 1667 477 212 164 1236 1005 1879 1286 228 252 620 502 1066 956 195 115 838 278 1274 694 174 105 1022 506 1206 1303 234 107 456 175 1492 848 179 144 928 650 1163 1255 358 104 674 481 1317 964 164 75 863 252 1292 1215 396 145 978 352 1087 1500 310 210 621 450 1167 799 209 442 1062 826 1583 1337 361 212 881 434 1522 1035 312 13 Appendix 1, part 2. Deciles of rainfall for rangeland bioregions. IBRA Arnhem Coast Arnhem Plateau Brigalow Belt North Brigalow Belt South Broken Hill Complex Burt Plain Cape York Peninsula Carnarvon Central Arnhem Central Kimberley Central Ranges Channel Country Cobar Peneplain Coolgardie Daly Basin Dampierland Darling Riverine Plains Darwin Coastal Davenport Murchison Ranges Desert Uplands Einasleigh Uplands Finke Flinders Lofty Block Gascoyne Gawler Gibson Desert Great Sandy Desert 2000-01 10 10 8 8 7 10 10 4 10 10 10 9 9 7 10 10 8 10 10 2001-02 4 3 3 4 3 9 4 1 6 8 10 4 3 3 6 5 3 5 8 2002-03 8 7 1 1 1 4 3 2 7 4 2 1 1 3 4 6 0 6 6 2003-04 9 9 4 6 6 6 5 6 9 9 9 5 4 10 10 9 8 9 8 2004-05 6 6 2 1 4 3 3 4 3 4 6 2 2 2 4 3 3 4 2 2005-06 4 6 2 4 6 9 5 9 5 10 9 4 5 9 9 9 6 8 9 2006-07 9 10 5 2 2 9 9 0 10 8 8 7 2 5 8 8 2 10 9 2007-08 9 10 10 10 7 2 10 10 10 10 6 4 10 6 9 8 9 10 2 2008-09 5 4 9 7 7 8 7 8 8 10 7 8 5 9 9 10 7 8 8 2009-10 8 5 7 8 9 9 3 1 9 3 8 10 9 4 5 4 9 6 7 2010-11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 10 10 10 10 10 2011-12 9 9 8 9 10 7 9 8 7 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 9 10 8 7 5 10 10 5 5 10 6 6 9 10 9 1 1 3 1 6 3 7 6 5 4 7 4 7 4 9 10 3 3 3 5 2 6 6 5 3 4 8 7 10 6 10 9 6 8 5 4 5 6 9 9 10 10 4 3 10 3 1 1 10 10 7 5 9 6 2 3 8 6 8 8 2 8 5 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 10 8 10 10 14 IBRA Great Victoria Desert Gulf Coastal Gulf Fall and Uplands Gulf Plains Hampton Little Sandy Desert MacDonnell Ranges Mitchell Grass Downs Mount Isa Inlier Mulga Lands Murchison Murray Darling Depression Northern Kimberley Nullarbor Ord Victoria Plain Pilbara Pine Creek Riverina Simpson Strzelecki Dunefields Stony Plains Sturt Plateau Tanami Tiwi Cobourg Victoria Bonaparte Yalgoo 2000-01 8 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 8 2001-02 10 5 6 4 7 10 9 5 3 4 7 3 2002-03 6 10 9 2 2 8 3 2 3 0 4 1 2003-04 8 10 10 5 9 9 5 7 8 6 8 5 2004-05 6 4 3 2 7 4 3 2 5 2 4 3 2005-06 9 10 9 8 9 10 8 6 8 3 10 8 2006-07 7 8 8 8 6 10 7 7 5 3 6 2 2007-08 1 8 10 10 3 4 2 7 5 9 8 8 2008-09 2 8 10 10 7 3 8 9 10 7 7 6 2009-10 6 9 8 8 6 3 10 8 8 10 4 8 2010-11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 2011-12 10 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 8 10 10 9 10 8 10 9 10 8 10 3 9 8 4 6 3 9 4 6 7 5 5 0 3 9 8 10 9 9 5 4 4 5 5 1 3 4 2 9 10 10 10 7 6 6 8 7 8 7 10 1 7 10 3 10 8 10 7 1 9 7 9 9 8 2 6 4 5 5 2 5 8 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 7 9 8 10 9 9 8 10 10 10 10 4 10 6 9 2 7 3 5 9 5 5 2 2 4 10 9 4 10 5 4 3 1 8 5 2 7 10 10 4 10 10 4 7 9 6 7 2 2 10 4 5 10 10 7 10 7 3 10 8 9 6 9 4 4 3 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 8 8 8 8 15 Appendix 2, part 1. Spatially-averaged amounts of AussieGRASS-simulated pasture growth (kg ha-1) for rangeland bioregions. Pasture growth is accumulated from March of one year to February of the following. IBRA Arnhem Coast Arnhem Plateau Brigalow Belt North Brigalow Belt South Broken Hill Complex Burt Plain Cape York Peninsula Carnarvon Central Arnhem Central Kimberley Central Ranges Channel Country Cobar Peneplain Coolgardie Daly Basin Dampierland Darling Riverine Plains Darwin Coastal Davenport Murchison Ranges Desert Uplands Einasleigh Uplands Finke Flinders Lofty Block Gascoyne Gawler Gibson Desert Great Sandy Desert 2000-01 1811 2339 4375 2726 3082 2058 848 2050 1754 922 1136 1666 709 2067 2002 2726 2013 3086 2001-02 1751 2244 1579 1324 367 1718 1850 62 1858 1649 1622 357 1740 365 1973 1235 1839 2019 1205 2002-03 1633 2145 557 532 85 619 1598 185 1902 1417 221 149 361 81 1927 1362 344 1981 603 2003-04 1691 2188 1488 1638 353 691 1529 269 1873 1615 657 215 1545 540 1957 1422 2113 1989 1112 2004-05 1674 2116 868 610 229 807 1875 338 1820 1466 601 116 1187 233 1916 1300 1502 1993 267 2005-06 1734 2222 1208 1461 486 1055 1600 840 1885 1629 832 214 1856 336 2018 1806 2368 2025 926 2006-07 1656 2103 2578 863 153 1046 1856 119 1940 1544 355 221 791 233 1903 1625 801 1924 1456 2007-08 1744 2220 5192 3557 290 488 1917 430 1989 1881 511 149 1676 99 2071 1754 2286 2040 358 2008-09 1679 2154 3105 1072 224 374 1894 769 1888 1629 338 236 852 247 1990 1669 1359 1982 551 2009-10 1669 2081 3006 2420 364 546 1429 82 1899 1213 391 722 1908 232 1840 1335 2348 1920 470 2010-11 1870 2370 4904 3192 1586 3843 2538 658 2161 2255 1376 2309 2849 122 2188 2270 3563 2064 2876 2011-12 1763 2255 3899 2695 914 967 1752 758 1926 1763 1245 1082 2943 336 2054 1765 3213 2017 1235 3549 3669 1048 845 772 218 648 1335 1745 2514 2324 892 363 521 891 1054 474 1110 251 132 277 156 324 316 1087 1978 357 382 364 128 417 472 817 1794 341 396 292 205 370 493 1141 2000 281 579 563 169 580 683 2804 3364 79 235 428 186 430 493 4109 3489 114 254 444 129 498 576 2920 3427 234 273 362 107 316 398 2641 1981 205 466 82 230 131 356 4265 4452 2320 1735 457 724 431 1369 2999 2860 763 1260 514 428 791 1030 549 16 IBRA Great Victoria Desert Gulf Coastal Gulf Fall and Uplands Gulf Plains Hampton Little Sandy Desert MacDonnell Ranges Mitchell Grass Downs Mount Isa Inlier Mulga Lands Murchison Murray Darling Depression Northern Kimberley Nullarbor Ord Victoria Plain Pilbara Pine Creek Riverina Simpson Strzelecki Dunefields Stony Plains Sturt Plateau Tanami Tiwi Cobourg Victoria Bonaparte Yalgoo 2000-01 437 2328 2822 2946 1258 743 2567 2916 3156 894 701 1416 2001-02 751 1964 2018 1943 1007 606 1902 1198 845 897 429 843 2002-03 222 2003 1864 1337 291 435 444 756 588 231 125 186 2003-04 254 2020 2183 1621 532 463 468 1000 1058 814 319 894 2004-05 366 1869 1428 1490 640 363 668 515 708 620 396 411 2005-06 300 2019 2022 1646 756 616 565 837 999 698 519 1509 2006-07 212 2122 2250 2553 769 631 369 1450 1663 557 344 460 2007-08 177 2096 1956 2195 774 561 331 1199 775 1304 220 638 2008-09 165 1980 1898 2180 407 339 391 1279 791 477 202 380 2009-10 123 1921 1860 1847 432 132 540 1688 1124 1785 148 933 2010-11 576 2339 3028 3175 1364 534 3417 2636 2959 1380 314 2283 2011-12 758 2257 2564 2402 1178 842 1058 2065 2117 1805 610 1762 1795 907 2230 1194 1978 2856 927 1651 1040 1856 530 1942 1997 467 1841 198 1094 435 1885 560 118 1756 210 1741 495 1939 2111 120 1863 423 1070 398 1865 1483 139 1740 608 1934 962 1950 2525 217 1871 483 1285 625 1829 1118 145 1888 380 2193 628 1997 1348 87 1789 140 1644 747 1918 663 206 1677 146 1257 268 1822 1926 307 2089 1334 2614 627 2016 3876 2561 1846 1355 1803 852 1940 3022 534 284 2434 2395 2637 2321 659 606 1950 1361 2116 2186 313 171 1634 629 1792 1794 194 97 2003 980 2350 2127 364 251 1119 370 2401 2049 315 177 2241 1078 2268 2264 635 71 1756 992 2103 1999 184 24 2065 936 2464 2475 191 147 1969 541 2306 2128 605 228 1717 662 2090 1752 467 1059 2436 2651 2773 2680 439 438 2082 1135 2394 2219 767 17 Appendix 2, part 2. Deciles of AussieGRASS-simulated pasture growth for rangeland bioregions. IBRA Arnhem Coast Arnhem Plateau Brigalow Belt North Brigalow Belt South Broken Hill Complex Burt Plain Cape York Peninsula Carnarvon Central Arnhem Central Kimberley Central Ranges Channel Country Cobar Peneplain Coolgardie Daly Basin Dampierland Darling Riverine Plains Darwin Coastal Davenport Murchison Ranges Desert Uplands Einasleigh Uplands Finke Flinders Lofty Block Gascoyne Gawler Gibson Desert Great Sandy Desert 2000-01 9 10 9 8 7 10 8 9 9 9 9 10 4 10 9 10 7 6 10 2001-02 8 8 2 4 5 10 4 1 2 8 10 7 5 7 3 3 4 6 9 8 9 10 7 10 5 10 10 4 5 10 7 7 9 10 10 2002-03 1 1 0 1 1 7 1 2 4 5 5 2 0 1 2 4 0 3 8 1 1 7 1 6 3 9 5 2003-04 3 3 2 5 5 7 1 4 3 8 9 4 4 9 2 5 5 3 9 2 3 8 3 7 2 9 8 2004-05 2 1 1 1 3 8 5 5 1 5 8 1 2 5 1 3 3 4 5 1 2 8 3 6 4 9 8 2005-06 6 6 1 4 7 9 1 9 3 8 9 4 6 7 6 9 6 7 9 2 4 7 5 9 3 10 9 2006-07 1 1 5 2 2 8 4 1 5 7 7 4 1 5 1 7 1 1 10 7 8 2 1 8 4 9 8 2007-08 7 5 10 10 4 6 6 6 7 10 8 2 4 2 9 8 5 8 6 10 8 4 2 8 2 10 9 2008-09 3 1 6 3 3 4 5 8 3 8 7 4 1 5 4 8 2 3 8 7 8 6 2 7 2 9 7 2009-10 2 1 6 7 5 6 1 1 4 3 7 9 6 5 1 4 6 0 7 6 3 6 4 2 5 5 6 2010-11 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 7 10 10 10 10 10 2 10 10 10 9 10 2011-12 8 8 8 8 10 8 3 8 5 9 10 9 10 7 8 8 9 6 9 10 10 10 10 8 10 10 10 7 6 9 9 9 8 10 10 18 IBRA Great Victoria Desert Gulf Coastal Gulf Fall and Uplands Gulf Plains Hampton Little Sandy Desert MacDonnell Ranges Mitchell Grass Downs Mount Isa Inlier Mulga Lands Murchison Murray Darling Depression Northern Kimberley Nullarbor Ord Victoria Plain Pilbara Pine Creek Riverina Simpson Strzelecki Dunefields Stony Plains Sturt Plateau Tanami Tiwi Cobourg Victoria Bonaparte Yalgoo 2000-01 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 10 8 2001-02 10 4 6 6 10 10 10 7 6 5 8 4 2002-03 8 4 5 1 3 9 6 4 4 0 3 1 2003-04 8 5 7 4 6 9 6 6 7 4 7 4 2004-05 9 3 2 2 7 8 7 2 5 3 8 1 2005-06 9 5 7 4 8 10 6 4 6 3 9 8 2006-07 8 7 8 9 8 10 5 8 8 2 7 2 2007-08 7 6 6 7 8 10 4 7 5 8 5 3 2008-09 7 4 5 7 4 8 5 7 5 2 5 1 6 9 10 10 9 8 10 2 10 9 6 7 4 9 7 4 4 5 2 0 3 4 4 8 6 6 4 3 8 8 4 4 1 2 4 4 9 9 10 7 6 6 8 8 6 7 1 1 4 9 7 10 8 10 2 1 5 3 8 9 4 1 6 8 10 10 9 10 7 10 8 9 2 7 2 6 5 6 1 1 1 4 8 8 4 6 3 8 2 3 5 5 2 6 10 9 3 9 6 2 6 9 2 4 1 0 9 8 7 10 1 5 8 5 4 6 6 2009-10 5 3 5 5 5 4 6 9 7 10 3 5 2010-11 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 7 10 2011-12 10 9 10 8 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 3 3 6 2 1 3 7 10 10 10 8 10 10 10 8 10 9 9 6 9 9 7 6 7 1 1 4 10 10 10 10 10 3 9 9 9 5 8 8 19