System Transformations towards Emissions Reductions
and Sustainable Futures
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Deputy Director, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Global Systemic Transformations
Two grand transformations occurred in the more recent history of humanity, the Neolithic
Revolution leading to the development of agriculture and permanent settlements that enabled
great achievements of antique civilizations and the explosive Industrial Revolution during the
past two centuries that catapulted humanity to unprecedented levels of affluence but also
rampant inequalities. The Neolithic Revolution was based on exploitation of human and animal
muscle power while the Industrial Revolution exploited fossil energy that has now resulted in
an unintended change of the global climate system.
About six million years ago, human beings lived as hunters and gatherers, and a global
population of only a dozen or so million people could be sustained. Some ten thousand years
ago, the Neolithic Revolution (also known as the agricultural revolution) occurred after the first
domestication of plants and animals by humans. This Revolution, however, involved far more
than just the adoption of a limited set of food-producing techniques and technologies. It
ultimately would transform the small and nomadic groups of hunter-gatherers to sedentary
societies in built-up villages and towns, which enormously expanded the niche of humans on
earth. This transformative change can also be seen as the world’s first energy revolution, as
enhanced productivity in agriculture enabled human and animal muscle power to provide the
essential mechanical energy for basic human needs.
The human population continued to grow, reaching almost one billion during the early 18th
century. It was at this time that the Earth and its human population were thrust into yet
another transformational revolution: the Industrial Revolution. With the invention of the steam
engine, mechanical energy derived from coal and steam were able to replace human and
animal energy, thereby further expanding the global population. Since the beginning of
theIndustrial Revolution, the human population has increased by a factor of seven. Alongside
population growth, economic output has increase more than 100-fold, energy production 30fold and associated CO2 emissions some 20-fold. This impressive development translates to an
average annual income of more than $10,000 per person. The “age” of coal and steam would
give way to oil and gas, the internal combustion engine, electricity and numerous other
technologies and institutional changes. The explosive development initiated by the Industrial
Revolution is still continuing today.
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There is no doubt that humankind has exhibited unprecedented levels of affluence and
production, but also of inequity since the Industrial Revolution; and the collective
consequences have had significant impacts on our social and natural environments. Today
some 1.3 billion people are surviving on less than $1.25 a day (roughly $450 per year). Global
inequality from an energy entry point, mirrors that of the global income disparity. Roughly 60%
of global final energy is used by the richest 20%, with only 5% going to the poorest 20%. The
relationship to greenhouse gas emissions is similar: with the richest 20% accounting for roughly
60% of global emissions. The 1.5 billion people with no access to electricity hardly contribute to
global emissions, while the top 20% of energy users account for the consumption of almost 80%
of global electricity production. Three billion people still rely on solid fuels for cooking, and as a
result suffer the effects of indoor pollution which is responsible for 4 million death per year,
almost four times the global deaths due to malaria.
Thus, we currently find ourselves in the beginning of the Anthropocene epoch, or the “Age of
Man”, which not only refers to the profound effects humankind has on the Earth system
(namely that for the first time in the history one species is irreversibly changing planetary
processes), but also to the social changes undergone by our global civilization, which has
garnered an increasing awareness of itself as the driving force of change, and the responsibility
that this awareness brings.
Figure 1: Figure 1 History of global population from a few million people some five to ten thousand years ago to seven billion
today. It shows the three illustrative phases of past development, the second starting with the Neolithic revolution and the
third with the industrial revolution.
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In view of the dimensions, the dynamics and the close interactions within the energy nexus
alongside global economic and social trends, it becomes clear that a transformation towards
sustainability is required on the same scale and profound impact as the previous Neolithic and
Industrial revolutions. As evidenced by the Industrial and Neolithic Revolution preceding it,
these transformative changes extend beyond marginal deviations from business as usual
policies. Rather, global transformations distinguish themselves from the conventional change
of social-economic and technological systems by placing an emphasis on organizational and
systemic changes that become irreversible.
Historical trends along the so called business-as-usual pathway cannot resolve these issues.
With an additional 2 billion people entering the world by 2050, coupled with our energy
intensive development paths implies a doubling of primary energy needs (and resulting
emissions), only to fulfill the most basic needs for energy services. It is important then that we
adopt and maintain a long-term perspective by taking into account these changes and
development patterns over time. On a global scale, this transition towards sustainability
needs to transcend differing political systems and mistrust between nations to address our
shared common concerns and priorities.
Global transformations are already taking place: today half of the global population lives in
cities, by 2050, almost two-thirds of people will be living in urban areas, resulting in final energy
use from cities estimated to account for up to 80% of final energy use along with water and
food requirements that depend on the hinterland. Half of the global population has secondary
education but less than 10% tertiary, but 2050 there is hope that about 80% would have
secondary and 50% tertiary education. In some ways this calls for a transformation within a
transformation, and offers a great opportunity for improving energy efficiency and structures in
these new urban centers while improving human capacity. The risk remains, however, for
escalating unsustainable energy demand if not offset by radical efficiency improvements. This
risk to urban centers may be even greater with respect to providing clean water and sanitation
services as well as ensuring food security.
Energy (exemplary section for the whole nexus of energy, water land and food)
An important, shared the objective of the UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) is to
reduce inequity on a global scale while at the same time limiting the effects of climate change
and other planetary pressures. When boiled down to entry points within the energy system,
which translates to a drastic reduction of greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously
ensuring universal access to modern energy services. Decarbonization, that is, reducing the
carbon intensity of energy, i.e., the amount of carbon emitted per unit of energy used, through
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improving energy efficiency, is essential to reaching long term climate goals. There are
important synergies between these two goals. Modern energy services are more efficient than
traditional biomass; the acceleration of energy access would contribute to a more rapid
increase in energy efficiency (by four- or five-fold), while increased energy efficiency effectively
allows for existing and new infrastructure to reach more people by freeing up capital resources
for energy access investments. Efficiency improvements also accelerate the necessary
decarbonization of the energy system. By promoting renewable energy through smart
centralized and decentralized grids, as well as decarbonization of fossil energy and nuclear
power in some regions, we not only reduce GHG emissions and local pollution, but allow for
more self-sufficient communities while offering insulation for communities from fuel-price
volatility.
Energy systems transformations imply profound and integrated changes that affect diverse
societies and economic sectors. Policies supporting such change should thus be developed and
coordinated across all relevant sectors. Energy systems differ between regions, between major
economies, and between developing and industrial countries. Approaches to the necessary
transitions to create energy systems for a sustainable future therefore vary. Nevertheless,
transformative changes require the use of policies and institutions that can foster a rapid
diffusion and scale-up of advanced technologies throughout energy systems to simultaneously
meet the multiple challenges. Improving energy efficiency is the most important option to
increase the flexibility of regional and sectoral energy end-use and supply systems. Moreover,
efficiency is a general-purpose solution that is applicable across all regions and sectors. “Doing
more with less” is thus an important maxim for working within the energy, water, food, and
land-use nexus. In essence, policies focused around the nexus should optimize the interactions
between actors to minimize the human footprint.
While it is essential that the sustainable development agenda with respect to energy is
universally relevant, there will be large regional differences in opportunities and perceived
priorities. In many low-income countries, the focus will understandably be to ensure universal
access to modern energy services, whereas for many developed countries, the emphasis will be
placed rather on working towards decoupling energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. This
isn’t to say that low-income countries should neglect low-carbon technologies. In fact, all
countries need to recognize the risks and costs associated with technological lock-in, which is a
recurring factor, especially in energy supply systems. In many ways, AOSIS countries need to
become the pioneers of decarbonization as they are severely threatened by anthropogenic
climate change. This strategy is likely to bring multiple co-benefits for the economies of AOSIS
countries as well as provide an exemplary showcase on how to avoid a lock-in into carbonintensive development paths.
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The necessary fundamental transformation of the global energy system has the potential to be
a source of sustainable and equitable wealth creation for the earth’s growing population, while
remaining within the planetary boundaries by reducing the strain on its resources and climate.
Energy systems differ between regions, between major economies, and between developing
and industrial countries. Approaches to the necessary transitions to create energy systems for a
sustainable future therefore vary, and policies that work successfully in one region may fail in
another. Thus, policies cannot be prescriptive, but rather they need to work from the bottomup, as a participatory process. Energy-focused policies must be coordinated and integrated with
policies addressing socioeconomic development and environmental protection in other sectors.
Effective policy portfolios will require a combination of instruments, including regulatory
frameworks and investment policies, as well as measures for strengthening capacity
development, which stimulate innovation. This requires strong commitments from the public,
private and civil service sectors.
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