The Demographic Facts
of Ageing in Australia
by
Graeme Hugo
ARC Australian Professorial Fellow,
Professor of Geography, and
Director of the Australian Population and
Migration Research Centre,
The University of Adelaide
Adelaide. SA. 5005. Australia.
Email: graeme.hugo@adelaide.edu.au
Telephone: (61) (08) 8313 3996
Appendix Q for Aged Care Financing Authority Second Annual Report 2014
April 2014
Revised July 2014
-i-
List of Contents
Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1
The Growth of Australia’s Older Population ........................................................................... 3
Why is Australia’s Population Ageing? ................................................................................... 5
Fertility ........................................................................................................................... 5
Mortality and Life Expectancy ....................................................................................... 8
Longevity, Health and Disability ................................................................................... 9
International Migration ................................................................................................ 13
How do Baby Boomers Differ from the Previous Generation Entering Old Age? ............... 17
Differences Within the Baby Boomer Generation ................................................................. 22
A Different Spatial Distribution............................................................................................. 25
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 39
References .............................................................................................................................. 42
- ii -
List of Tables
Table 1:
Australia: Population Change by Age, 2006-11 ............................................. 3
Table 2:
Australia: Population Change by Age, 2011 and Projected 2031 ................... 4
Table 3:
Australia: Comparison of Projected Growth of Population, 2031 .................. 4
Table 4:
Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, 1901-1910, 1970-72, 1981
and 2011 ........................................................................................................... 9
Table 5:
Proportion of the Population with Disabilities, 1981-2012 ........................... 11
Table 6:
Australia: Disaggregation of Life Expectancy Into ‘Disability Free’
and ‘With Disability’ Years, 1998 and 2012 (Years) .................................... 12
Table 7:
Australia: Population Aged 65+ by Birthplace, 1971-2011.......................... 16
Table 8:
Australia: Baby Boomers and Pre-war Generation As They Enter Old
Age, Social Indicators .................................................................................... 19
Table 9:
Health Status at Mid-life: Baby Boomers Compared with Pre-war
Generation ...................................................................................................... 22
Table 10:
Australia: Tenure by Age, 2011 .................................................................... 24
Table 11:
Comparison of Owners and Renters: Demography ...................................... 25
Table 12:
Comparison of Owners and Renters: Chronic Conditions............................ 25
Table 13:
A Typology of Migration of Older Australians ............................................. 27
Table 14:
Australia: Percent Who Moved in the Last 5 years, 1976-81 to 200611.................................................................................................................... 28
Table 15:
Australia: Changes in Participation Rates of the Older Population in
the Workforce, 1970-2014 ............................................................................. 29
Table 16:
Australia: Growth of Population, 1981-2011................................................ 30
- iii -
Table 17:
Adelaide Statistical Division: Number of Aged Care Beds in Suburban
Sectors, 2000 and 2013 .................................................................................. 36
Table 18:
Metropolitan Adelaide: Total Population and Aged 70+, 2011 and
Projected 2021 and 2026 ................................................................................ 37
Table 19:
Metropolitan Adelaide: Number Beds/1000 persons Aged 70+, 2011
and Projected 2021 and 2026 ......................................................................... 37
Table 20:
Projections of Aged Care Workforce Demand .............................................. 40
- iv -
List of Figures
Figure 1:
Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901-2012 ...................................................... 6
Figure 2:
Australia: Age Structure 1961 to 2011 Showing Baby Boomer Cohort ......... 7
Figure 3:
Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2011 ........................................ 8
Figure 4:
Australia: Settler Arrivals by Region of Last Residence, 1947-1996,
and Permanent Additions by Region of Birth, 1997-2013 ............................ 15
Figure 5:
Australia: Persons 15 Years and Over, Visited a GP 12 or More Times
in the Previous 12 Months ............................................................................. 21
Figure 6:
Australia: Average Household Net Worth by Age of the Household
Reference Person, 1994-2012 ........................................................................ 23
Figure 7:
Australia: Persons Who Moved in the Last Five Years by Age, 200106 and 2006-11 .............................................................................................. 27
Figure 8:
Adelaide Statistical Division: Distribution of Population Aged 65
Years and Over Between Metropolitan Sectors, 1971-2011 ......................... 31
Figure 9:
Adelaide Statistical Division: Growth of the Population Aged 65+ by
SLA, 2006-11 ................................................................................................. 33
Figure 10:
Metropolitan Adelaide Sectors and Aged Care Beds, 2000 and 2013 ........... 35
Figure 11:
Australia: Rest of State Age-Sex Specific Net Migration Profile, 20062011................................................................................................................ 39
Introduction
There is now widespread recognition that Australia’s population is ageing1 and that
this has important implications for the national economy and society. Despite this there is
considerable misunderstanding of the nature, scale, location and implications of population
ageing in Australia. This is even the case in the aged care sector which is to be so crucially
impacted by the ageing of the population. The aim of this appendix is to summarise the basic
dimensions of the growth of Australia’s older population over the next two decades. The
note will use the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS, 2013a) population
projections. It must be stressed, however, that anticipating change of older populations does
not involve ‘crystal ball gazing’. There is a very high degree of certainty around projections
of their numbers over the next three decades and they can be used with a high degree of
confidence. This is because Australia’s older population of the 2020s and 2030s is already in
Australia but are currently aged in their 40s and 50s. We not only know their numbers but
also where they live and their economic and social characteristics. This can provide us with a
clear window through which to view the size and characteristics of Australia’s future older
population.
Anticipating change in the numbers, characteristics and distribution of Australia’s
older population is fundamental to planning the efficient and equitable provision of both
residential aged care and home care. There are considerable lead-up times required,
especially in the residential care sector as well as massive investments required to meet the
inevitable increase in demand. Accordingly it is crucial that there is a full analysis of the
details of the numbers of people who will need these services, their characteristics which will
influence the nature of this demand, and where they live which will shape the location of
1
Demographic ageing of a population occurs when the proportion of the total population in the older age
groups (usually 65+) increases. Currently all global populations are ageing, although the rate varies greatly
between countries (United Nations, 2013).
-2-
future demand. It is argued here that the projections currently available, while useful, need to
be enhanced through more detailed and nuanced future scenario development. This will
provide greater certainty in the scale, nature and timing of expansion of both residential care
and home care services. This paper summarises the current state of knowledge on these
issues.
There are four demographic aspects of the ageing of Australia’s population over the
next two decades:

The numbers of older people will increase rapidly because the ‘shockwave’ of baby
boomers will all move past age 65. Accordingly the median ABS projections (ABS,
2013a) anticipate the numbers aged 65+ in Australia will increased by 84.8 percent
from 3.1 million to 5.7 million between 2011 and 2031.

The proportion that the older (65+) population will make up of the total population
will increase from 13.8 percent in 2011 to 18.7 percent in 2031. This raises issues of
worsening ratios between the working and non-working population and the effects of
intergenerational transfers.

The third dimension of population ageing in Australia is one which is often
overlooked and relates to their characteristics. They are quite different to earlier
generations entering the retirement stage of the life cycle – economically, socially,
and in their values, attitudes, expectations and, most importantly, their health. This is
because each cohort lives through quite different economic, social and cultural
conditions, and have different sets of education, world experience, etc. Baby boomers
differ in a myriad of ways from the previous generation of older people and this will
also have a major impact on the nature of the care and residential arrangements which
they need, seek, prefer and can pay for.
-3-

Finally, the geography of the next generation of the older Australian population will
be different to that of the previous generation. The distribution of Australians aged
65+ and 80+ in 2021 and 2031 will be quite different to that of 2001 and 2013. Yet
much of the aged care infrastructure, especially residential care are ‘location specific
capital’ (De Vanzo, 1981). They have a fixed location which will be increasingly
mismatched with the location of older Australians.
The Growth of Australia’s Older Population
Australia’s population is currently growing at 1.8 percent per annum (ABS, 2014),
one of the fastest population growth rates in the world and certainly the fastest among OECD
countries. Table 1 shows that over the most recent intercensal period the 65+ population
grew significantly faster than the total population and working age populations. The most
rapid growth was in the ‘young aged’ 65-74 ages as they begin to be entered by baby
boomers.
Table 1:
Source:
Australia: Population Change by Age, 2006-11
ABS 2011 Census
2006
2011
% Change
Total
19,855,291
21,507,716
8.3
65-74
1,373,435
1,627,407
18.5
75+
1,270,935
1,384,880
9.0
65+
2,644,370
3,012,287
13.9
13,273,710
14,351,405
8.1
15-64
Population projections over the next two decades, however, show that the growth of
those aged 65+ will be more than twice as fast as the total population (Table 2). Moreover
-4-
the fastest growth will be in the ‘old old’ 75+ age groups. These are the age groups which
have the highest level of demand for aged care and other services, especially health.
Table 2:
Source:
Australia: Population Change by Age, 2011 and Projected 2031
ABS Estimated Resident Population and 2031 Projections Series B
2011
2031
% Change
Total
22,340,024
30,501,192
36.5
65-74
1,681,931
2,878,511
71.1
75+
1,405,980
2,826,768
101.1
65+
3,087,911
5,705,279
84.8
15,018,500
19,255,273
28.2
15-64
To underline the high degree of confidence we can place in these numbers, Table 3
provides the projections for the three main scenarios of future population change which the
ABS has provided – Series A, B and C – respectively high, medium and low population
growth scenarios. It will be noted that there is little variation in the numbers of 65+
anticipated by all three scenarios (2.5 percent). This is because the aged population of the
next three decades will not be influenced by fertility and little affected by migration. It will,
however, be noted in Table 3 that there are more significant differences in the percentage
that the aged will represent in the total population under the different scenarios (8.8 percent).
Table 3:
Source:
Australia: Comparison of Projected Growth of Population, 2031
ABS 2013 Projections
2011 (m)
Total Population
Difference
Series A
Series B
Series C
2031 (m)
2031 (m)
2031 (m)
in 2031 (m
Series A and C)
22.34
31.87
30.5
29.3
2.57
65+
3.09
5.83
5.71
5.69
0.14
Percent 65+
13.8
18.3
18.7
19.4
1.1
-5-
This is because the higher growth projections assume higher levels of migration and fertility
which lead to greater increases of the young population and reduce the proportion that the
aged comprise of the total population. The crucial point, however, is that there is really
only one realistic scenario with respect to the future numerical growth of Australia’s
older population. There are only different scenarios with respect to the proportion they
make up of the total population.
Why is Australia’s Population Ageing?
Trends in the numbers of older people (say those aged 65 years and over) in any area
are a function of the following demographic processes.

Fertility – the rate at which women in that area were having children 65-90 years ago.

Mortality – the rate at which older people are lost to death.

Migration – the extent to which older people move into or out of the area.

The ‘ageing in place’ of residents in the area into the 65+ age groups.
In Australia all of these processes are contributing to the unprecedented increase in its
older population and will continue to do so over the next two decades.
Fertility
The most salient demographic element in the ageing of the Australian populations
over the next three decades is the Baby Boom generation moving into the retirement ages.
Figure 1 shows the Australian Total Fertility Rate2 over the last century and it can be seen
that the period following World War II saw an upswing in the number of babies women were
having on average. While most countries experience an upswing in fertility after a war, the
2
The TFR can be defined as: the average number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her
lifetime if she were to pass through all her child-bearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates
of a given year.
-6-
Australian post-World War II boom was greater and longer lasting than most. Indeed it was
sustained for two decades. This created a ‘bulge’ in the Australian age pyramid which, as
-7-
Figure 2 shows, has subsequently moved upwards and is now entering the 65+ age
group. Because fertility has subsequently almost halved, the baby boom has created a ‘shock
wave’ of rapidly increasing numbers in particular ages as the cohort has passed through
different life cycle stages.3
Figure 1:
Source:
3
Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901-2012
CBCS, Demography and ABS, Births Australia, various issues
The first baby boomers turned 65 in 2011 and will begin passing 70 in 2016 and 85 in 2031.
-8-
Figure 2:
Source:
Australia: Age Structure 1961 to 2011 Showing Baby Boomer Cohort
ABS Censuses
1961
85+
80-84
Females
Males
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
Age 45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
800
600
400
200
0
200
400
600
800
Number (000s)
1986
85+
80-84
Females
Males
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
Age 45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
800
600
400
200
0
200
400
600
800
Number (000s)
2011
85+
80-84
Females
Males
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
Age 45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
800
600
400
200
0
Number (000s)
200
400
600
800
-9-
Figure 3:
Source:
Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2011
Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Australia, various issues
Mortality and Life Expectancy
Another factor contributing to ageing of the Australian population, as Figure 3 shows,
is the steep increase in life expectancy among Australians over the last century. In the period
since World War II we have added 12.6 years of life to Australian males and 12.9 years to
females. Hence more Australians are surviving their younger years than ever before.
However, perhaps the biggest change in life expectancy has come in the older ages. Prior to
1970 we had added very few years of extra life to Australians aged 50 years or more,
although major improvements were recorded in their chances of making it to age 50. Table 4
shows that between 1901 and 1970 only 1.8 extra years of life were added to Australian
- 10 -
males aged 50. The increase was greater for women (4.6 years) because of the reduction in
pregnancy/child birth related deaths. However the table shows that there has since been a
dramatic change with 8.8 years being added to the life expectancy of Australian men aged 50
between 1970 and 2011 and 7.3 years for women of that age. This massive change was not
anticipated by commentators at the time (National Population Inquiry, 1975, 1978). It was
Table 4:
Source:
Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, 1901-1910, 1970-72, 1981 and
2011
ABS
Year
Males
Females
1901-1910
21.2
23.7
1970-1972
23.2
28.3
1981
25.2
30.8
2011
32.0
35.6
achieved on the one hand through medical breakthroughs such as better diagnosis of heart
conditions, bypass operations and the development of Intensive Care Units. On the other
hand, major improvements in lifestyle through better diet, reduced smoking and safer cars
have also had an impact. As a result, not only are more Australians surviving to reach
retirement age but more are having an extended period of retirement. This is contributing
significantly to the growth of our older population. On average, Australian males reaching 65
in 2012 could expect to live to age 84 and women 87.
Longevity, Health and Disability
Increased longevity of Australians is, of course, a good news story although its
implications for income support, superannuation, the age of retirement etc. are currently
being worked through. From the perspective of demand for aged care it is not only the extra
- 11 -
years of life which is of significance but it is the number of extra years which are years lived
with disability. A Global Burden of Disease (2012) study for the 1990-2010 period found
that in high income countries the gain in years of extra life lived as a result of decreases in
mortality has been largely offset by years of life lived with disability.
Public perceptions are that baby boomers are healthier than previous generations but
is this the case? There are a number of factors which would lead us to conclude that they are
likely to be healthier:

Baby boomers are in many ways a privileged generation being the first generation to
grow up in an era of increasing affluence and prosperity.

They have unprecedentedly high levels of education compared with earlier
generations.

They were the first generation to grow up in an era of expanding job and educational
opportunities.

They were the first generation to grow up having access to immunisation and
antibiotics.

They have substantially lower levels of smoking than previous generations.
On the other hand there are some arguments for suggesting they could have a higher
level of disability than previous generations:

Firstly, the very medical breakthroughs which have ‘rescued’ baby boomers from
dying of a heart attack or stroke like the previous generation may in fact leave them
with a chronic illness or disability.

Secondly, baby boomers, more than previous generations, have adopted increasingly
sedentary life styles and have a higher incidence of obesity than any previous
generation.
- 12 -
Whether or not Australia fits the High Income Country Model established by the
Global Burden of Disease (2012) study is of particular significance to anticipating future
need for aged care. If the Australian situation were to conform to that pattern the changes in
mortality would have delivered a ‘double whammy’ to the future demand for health and aged
care.

There will be many more older people than we previously anticipated.

On average they will have higher levels of chronic illness and disability.
However, the data presently available do not allow us to give a definite answer.
Perhaps a detailed analysis of the most recent ABS Health Survey, which for the first time
collected clinical data and did not rely totally on self-rated health, will clarify the issue.
Table 5 presents results of ABS sample surveys of self-completed health for ages 45 and over
between 1981 and 2012 and some complex patterns are in evidence.
Table 5:
Source:

Proportion of the Population with Disabilities, 1981-2012
ABS, 1999 and 2013b
Age Group
1981
1988
1993
1998
2003
2009
2012
45-54
16.7
17.4
18.4
20.9
21.6
18.0
18.1
55-64
27.1
30.5
30.9
33.4
33.8
31.8
29.4
65-74
34.6
44.0
45.3
44.8
44.4
43.6
42.0
75+
53.1
63.4
64.0
67.5
68.0
65.2
67.6
All People
13.2
15.5
16.6
18.8
20.0
18.5
18.5
There is an overall increase in the proportion of the population reporting a disability
up to 2003 and thereafter a small decline.

For the 75+, 45-54 and 55-64 population there was also an increase up to 2003 and
thereafter a small decline.

For the 65-74 group the proportion with a disability peaked in 1993 and has declined
since then.
- 13 -
The self-report data hence do show a pattern of a small decrease in the incidence of disability
in older ages but this should be treated with caution.
A recent study by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2014, 3) has
examined the change in life expectancy in Australia between 1998 and 2012 and the results
are summarised in Table 6. They show that virtually all of the increase in life expectancy
between 1998 and 2012 (4 years for males and 2.8 years for females) were disability free
years. This result would indicate that in Australia, at least in recent years, the increase in
longevity has not increased the number of years that Australians on average will spend with a
disability. However, these data remain based on self-reported health and such data is not
only questionable but also is subject to systematic change over time. It is only through the
use of clinical data, as was collected in the most recent ABS Health Survey, that more
definitive statements can be made.
Table 6:
Source:
Australia: Disaggregation of Life Expectancy Into ‘Disability Free’ and
‘With Disability’ Years, 1998 and 2012 (Years)
AIHW, 2014, 3
Male
Female
1998
2012
1998
2012
Life Expectancy at Birth
75.9
79.9
81.5
84.3
Disability Free Expectancy
58.0
62.4
62.1
64.5
With Disability Expectancy
17.9
17.5
19.4
19.8
One of the most important determinants of future need for aged care relates to the
incidence of dementia. The Global Burden of Disease (2012, 2218) study of years living
with disability found that there was a largely unrecognised burden of mental illness in both
developed and underdeveloped nations. In the Australian context Access Economics (2011,
- 14 -
9) projected the numbers with dementia to more than double from 266,574 in 2011 to
553,285 in 2030 and by 2050 would number 942,624. This would suggest that the numbers
of Australians living with dementia would increase significantly faster than the total
population over this period. With an increasing proportion of residential care residents
suffering dementia such projections would appear to have very significant implications for
future demand for both residential and home care packages. However, the uncertainty around
these projections was recently drawn attention to by Sachdev (2014) who draws upon
European evidence to suggest that projected levels of prevalence of dementia were not being
reached. It is apparent that action on preventative health, especially improving diet and
exercise and reducing obesity could lower the risk of dementia for future generations.
Accordingly, while there is a high degree of certainty about the numbers of older
Australians, there will be over the next quarter century a great deal of uncertainty about the
proportion of them who will be needing care, both residential and home. There is a pressing
need to develop a number of specific scenarios with respect to future prevalence of disability
and dementia in order to develop more nuanced and informed projections of future need for
aged care. This is fundamental to maintaining and enhancing the effective, efficient and
equitable provision of aged care support services in Australia.
International Migration
It is sometimes suggested that a ‘solution’ to Australia’s ageing population is to be
found in international migration. International migration is highly selective of the young
adult population and hence migration can have a ‘younging’ effect. However, immigrants
themselves age so that their overall impact on age structure is limited (Young, 1988). Indeed
the massive immigration of young adults in the early postwar decades is now contributing
significantly to the growth of Australia’s older population as these immigrants ‘age in place’.
- 15 -
In fact, Australia’s overseas-born population is older than the Australia-born with 19.0
percent aged 65 in 2011 compared with 11.9 percent.
Australian postwar immigration has had a profound impact on the contemporary older
population. With half its population being either overseas-born or Australia-born with an
overseas-born parent, Australia is more influenced by migration than any other OECD
country. Moreover
- 16 -
Figure 4 shows that the intake has gone from being overwhelmingly mono-culturally
Anglo Celtic to one of the most ethnically diverse global inflows. Due to the
- 17 -
Figure 4:
Australia: Settler Arrivals by Region of Last Residence, 1947-1996, and
Permanent Additions by Region of Birth, 1997-2013
DIBP data
Source:
300000
250000
Number
200000
150000
100000
50000
2012-13
2009–10
2006–07
2003–04
2000–01
1997–98
1994-95
1991-92
1988-89
1985-86
1982-83
1979-80
1976-77
1973-74
1970-71
1967-68
1964-65
1961-62
1958-59
1955-56
1952-53
1949-50
*1945-47
0
Year
UK and Ireland
Other Europe
Africa
Americas
NZ and Pacific
Middle East
Asia
*July 1945 to June 1947
Note: Middle East includes North Africa from 1996-97.
young age of migrants at the time of the move, the impact in diversifying Australia’s aged
population
has
been
delayed.
However,
Table 7 shows that the overseas-born population aged 65+ has almost doubled since 1991
while the Australia-born grew by around a third. In 2011, 36 percent of Australians aged 65+
were overseas-born and 22 percent were from Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD)
backgrounds.
-2-
Table 7:
Source:
Australia: Population Aged 65+ by Birthplace, 1971-2011
ABS 1971-2001 Censuses
Australia-Born
Year
No.
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
816,396
913,075
1,053,565
1,188,679
1,323,473
1,418,879
1,485,462
1,560,584
1,787,009
%
8.0
8.4
9.2
9.8
10.4
10.7
10.9
11.1
11.9
Non-English Speaking
Origin-Born
Overseas-Born
%
Growth
pa
2.3
2.9
2.4
2.2
1.4
0.9
1.0
2.7
No.
248,599
295,911
350,839
458,041
528,335
620,898
726,558
840,503
1,004,641
%
Growth
pa
%
9.6
10.9
11.7
14.1
14.1
15.9
17.7
19.0
19.0
3.5
3.5
5.5
2.9
3.3
3.9
3.0
3.6
* % growth 1971-81
No.
75,433
na
135,678
222,972
271,054
352,958
433,617
509,860
608,449
%
5.6
9
13.3
12.4
14.9
17.3
18.6
18.0
%
Growth
pa
+6.0*
10.4
4
5.4
4.2
3.3
3.6
Mainly English Speaking
Origin-Born
%
No.
%
Growth
pa
173,166
14.1
na
215,161
14.4
+2.2*
235,069
15
1.8
257,281
16.4
1.8
267,940
17.3
0.8
292,941
18.3
1.8
330,543
19.7
2.4
396,192
20.8
3.7
-3-
How do Baby Boomers Differ from the Previous Generation Entering Old
Age?
The passage of baby boomers into older ages thus represents a massive quantitative
change with a doubling of the numbers aged 65+ in the next quarter century and an even
greater growth of those aged 75+. However, it is more than a quantitative change. Baby
boomers differ significantly economically, socially and culturally and in their attitudes,
resources and expectations from the previous generation born in the 1910s, 20s and 30s. This
will profoundly influence the way they tackle and experience the post-retirement years. They
will not behave the same and service providers catering to this age group must recognise that
it will not simply be a situation of ‘more of the same’. What are some of the major ways in
which baby boomers are different?
While there is considerable diversity in each generation, baby boomers are more
segmented than the previous generation. While ‘mass market’ options were possible for
many of the previous generation, baby boomers have created more differentiated markets for
all the goods and services they have demanded and needed as they reach each stage of the life
cycle. It will thus be a highly segmented market, not only for aged housing and aged care but
for all the goods and services older people use. This will mean that policies, programs and
approaches which have been successful among the current generation of 65+ people will not
necessarily work for baby boomers. In order to demonstrate this we have compared the
characteristics of the current older generation at the time they entered the older ages in the
1980s with the current characteristics of baby boomers who are just reaching this stage of the
life cycle.4
4
This analysis was undertaken by Dr. Jennifer Buckley of the Australian Population and Migration Research
Centre.
-4-
Table 8 compares some key demographic, economic and social characteristics of the
two groups with the following being particularly important:

The baby boomers are the first generation of Australians to experience high rates of
divorce and separation so that a third are entering their older years without a spouse
compared with less than a fifth among the previous generation.

The proportion of baby boomer women who had never had children was significantly
higher (14 compared with nine percent).

The proportion living alone is twice as high.

One of the largest differences relates to education with 43 percent of boomers who
had completed secondary school compared with only six percent of the previous
generation. Moreover, while almost a fifth of baby boomers had a Bachelor or higher
degree qualification, only three percent of the older generation did.
-5-
Table 8:
Source:
Australia: Baby Boomers and Pre-war Generation As They Enter Old
Age, Social Indicators
ABS National Health Surveys 1989-90 and 2008-09; ABS Census 1981 and
2006
Baby Boomers
Pre-war Generation
(1946-65)
(1927-36)
%
%
Entering later life without a spouse
34
19
Childless
14
9
Living alone
11
6
Completed secondary school
43
6
Bachelor degree or higher
19
3
66
80
Owner/purchaser
80.7
84.1
Rental
19.3
15.9
No Private Health Cover
37
42
Overseas-Born
31
21
NES Overseas-Born
20
12
Social Indicators
Social Supports
Education
Religion
Identify as Christian
Housing

A higher proportion of the previous generation identified themselves as a Christian.

While both had high rates of home ownership, the percentage renting among baby
boomers is higher (19.3 compared with 15.9 percent).

Two thirds of baby boomers have private health cover compared with 58 percent of
the older generation.

Baby boomers are more ethnically diverse with 31 percent overseas-born (compared
with 21 percent) with a fifth being born in a CALD country (compared with 12
percent).
-6-
This small slice of the wide difference between the generations is indicative of how there are
significant differences in attitudes, perceptions, characteristics, resources and experience
which will mean their behaviour, expectations and demand for services will also differ. They
certainly need to be considered when considering the future aged care needs of this group.
For example:

The extent to which baby boomers will be able to call upon a partner or a child to
assist in their day to day care will be considerably less than the previous generation of
older Australians. Yet policy is to increase the proportion of care being delivered at
home rather than in a residential care context.

The proportion of baby boomers owning their home outright will be less than is
currently the case. Yet home ownership is one of the three pillars of the Australian
aged care system.

Increasing cultural diversity presents many challenges in aged care provision because
until relatively recently the population aged 85+ was overwhelmingly Anglo Celtic in
origin.
One of the most important dimensions of difference between generations relates to
health. Much of the public and policy discourse on the ageing of baby boomers has focused
on the pressure that this will place on Australia’s health system. Indeed, they will lead to
nearly a doubling of the population aged 65 years and over in the next quarter century.
Unfortunately most of the data we have available on health, however, is self-reported and, as
was explained earlier, needs to be interpreted carefully.
Figure 5 shows that there is a pattern of demand for health services increasing
significantly in the older years in Australia. However, as was indicated earlier, the
implications for the health system are more severe than is suggested by the sheer increased
-7-
numbers of older people. Although there are problems
Figure 5:
Source:
Australia: Persons 15 Years and Over, Visited a GP 12 or More Times in
the Previous 12 Months
ABS, 2012
with the data when we make the direct comparison across generations, the evidence is that
they have a higher rate of illness and morbidity than the previous generation. Most tellingly,
Table 9 shows that baby boomers are eight times more likely than the older generation to
have three or more health problems. This perhaps reflects the ‘rescued from death’ factor
discussed in an earlier section, although comparability of the data over time can be
questioned. Nevertheless, the data in Table 9 indicate the nature and scale of the health
challenge which the baby boomers pose. The incidence of obesity and overweight is two and
a half times that of the previous generation. The close links between obesity and poor health
makes it imperative that our efforts to reduce obesity in the Australian population include a
-8-
strong focus on baby boomers. Partly associated with obesity patterns, the incidence of
diabetes is three times higher and asthma twice as great. It is interesting that the only risk
factor for which baby boomers are better off is smoking with 18 percent of boomers currently
smoking compared with a quarter of the older generation.
Table 9:
Source:
Health Status at Mid-life: Baby Boomers Compared with Pre-war
Generation
ABS; National Health Surveys, 1989-90, 2007-08
Baby Boomers
Pre-war Generation
at Mid-life
at Mid-life
%
%
Obesity
26
12
Diabetes
9
3
Asthma
10
5
Hearing loss
17
8
Arthritis
33
26
Migraine
6
4
Back problems
9
6
Multiple conditions (≥3)
4
0.5
High cholesterol
14
8
Alcohol risk
15
11
Currently smoking
18
24
Emphysema/bronchitis
3
5
No private health cover
37
42
Health Indicators
Differences Within the Baby Boomer Generation
In the last section we have demonstrated that baby boomers as a group are clearly
different to the previous generation entering the older years. However, it is very important to
realise that there is considerable variation within the baby boomer generation. It is important
to recognise that in fact it is a more diverse generation than the one which preceded it.
Nevertheless there are pervasive stereotypes such as the baby boomers being a ‘cashed up’
-9-
generation. Figure 6, indeed, shows that baby boomers in the 55-74 age group had the
highest wealth levels of all generations. Moreover they have the fastest growing wealth
levels with the situation being quite static below age 45. However, it would be wrong to
characterise all baby boomers as being wealthy. There is in fact a significant number of baby
boomers who are highly vulnerable to experiencing significant problems once they enter the
older age groups. We will demonstrate this using data from the South Australian Monitoring
and Surveillance System (SAMSS).
Figure 6:
Source:
Australia: Average Household Net Worth by Age of the Household
Reference Person, 1994-2012
ABS, 2002, 2007 and 2013c
- 10 -
One important measure of differentiation relates to housing. It is often assumed that
ownership of the family home provides the basis for the wellbeing of the older population.
Yet as was indicated earlier, a smaller proportion of baby boomers than the previous
generation are entering the older ages owning their own home than previous generations.
Table 10 presents data from the Australian 2011 population census and shows that the
proportions renting increase substantially with each successive generation. Moreover the
proportion who had a mortgage increases even more suggesting that the numbers of baby
boomers who will still have a mortgage debt when they leave the workforce will be much
greater than was the case for the previous generation.
Table 10:
Source:
Australia: Tenure by Age, 2011
ABS 2011 Census
Tenure
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
Percent
Owned outright
27.5
51.3
72.1
76.2
Owned with a mortgage
49.4
30.9
12.2
6.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
21.5
16.2
13.4
12.6
Being occupied rent-free
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.0
Being occupied under a life tenure scheme
0.1
0.2
0.8
2.5
Other tenure type
0.4
0.4
0.5
1.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
2976481
2532605
1644047
1391101
Being purchased under a rent/buy scheme
Rented
Total
N
The baby boomers who are renting represent a group who have high levels of
vulnerability to experiencing difficulty in old age when their income reduces due to leaving
the workforce. This is evident in data collected in a survey of the South Australian
population. In putting together data from the SAMSS for the 2007-13 period there were
13,425 baby boomers, of whom 1,229 (9.1 percent) were renting. Comparisons of those
renters with other baby boomers (owners and purchasers) showed there were some very
- 11 -
striking differences. Table 11 shows that renters were significantly more likely to not be in
the workforce, not have tertiary education, be currently married and be in the lowest income
quintiles. This disadvantage is carried through to health and Table 12 shows that they are at
much higher risk of having a chronic disease or disability. Most tellingly, they are twice as
likely to have a mental health problem.
Table 11:
Source:
Table 12:
Source:
Comparison of Owners and Renters: Demography
SAMSS, 2007-13
Owners (%)
Renters (%)
Percent Employed
75.7
56.9
Percent with Degree
24.1
15.0
Currently Married
83.9
46.1
Percent in 2 Lowest SEIFA Quintiles
34.4
49.4
Comparison of Owners and Renters: Chronic Conditions
SAMSS, 2007-13
Owners (%)
Renters (%)
Diabetes
7.8
13.0
Asthma
10
16.8
COPD
4.4
8.4
Arthritis
25.9
31.6
Osteoporosis
3.8
5.6
Mental Health
15.4
29.6
At Least One Chronic Condition
47.4
61.1
Clearly there is a significant group among baby boomers who are very vulnerable to
disadvantage. Those who are currently renting are especially important in that respect.
These are factors which must be taken into account in developing a range of future scenarios
with respect to need for aged care.
- 12 -
A Different Spatial Distribution
Where older people live is important for a number of reasons:

Older people have lower levels of personal mobility which means they are restricted
in their ability to travel long distances to obtain services and interact.

Housing is often the major element in older people’s assets.

Their local area is often where their main social contacts are located.

Their home can hold many important memories crucial to their wellbeing.
There is a literature which shows a high level attachment to home place among older
Australians (Pinnegar et al., 2012, 12). However, there is some discussion as to the extent to
which it is attachment to the actual dwelling they occupy and the extent to which it is to the
locality in which they live. This is a crucial distinction from the perspectives of both policy
and the wellbeing of older Australians.
The distribution of the older population is also important because the elderly are
historically among Australia’s least residentially mobile groups. Figure 7 shows the
proportion of each age group moving in the five years previous to the 2011 and 1991
censuses and it will be noticed that there has been little change in the extent to which older
Australians have changed their place of residence over the last two decades. Traditionally,
mobility tends to be greatest upon retirement when, as Table 13 shows, most moves are
voluntary and involve moving to more environmentally amenable locations or trading down
to age-appropriate housing. However, in the oldest years movement is generally forced on
people due to the onset of disability or the loss of a spouse. Table 14 presents results of five
intercensal periods in Australia since 1976 which suggest that the overall level of residential
mobility among older Australians over the last 35 years has reduced. Several things are
operating here such as the increased independence of older people which has allowed them to
remain in their home longer as well as government policy encouraging people to ‘remain at
- 13 -
home rather than in a home’. Nevertheless, there is no evidence of an upswing in ‘young
aged’ migration.
Figure 7:
Australia: Persons Who Moved in the Last Five Years by Age, 2001-06
and 2006-11
ABS 2006 and 2011 Censuses
Source:
180000
160000
Moved 2006-2011
Moved 2001-06
140000
120000
100000
Number Moved
80000
60000
40000
0
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
20000
Age in years
Table 13:
Source:
A Typology of Migration of Older Australians
Hugo, 1988, 17
Age
Type
‘Young Old’
M ainly Voluntary
Selectivity Reason for M oving
Higher
Income
60s and early 70s
‘Old Old’
70s and over
Showing Element
of Compulsion
- recreational, retirement to resort locations –
environmental factor
- trade down to age-appropriate housing
Lower
Income
- closer to children
Little
Selectivity
- forced housing adjustment – renters and
mortgage holders
- onset of widowhood or disability forces move to
be closer to children
- inability to live independently forces need to live
with children or residential care
- 14 -
Table 14:
Source:
Australia: Percent Who Moved in the Last 5 years, 1976-81 to 2006-11
ABS Censuses; 1981-2001 ABS, One Percent Sample
Year
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
1976-81
26.9
26.8
24.7
24.4
32.9
1986-91
30.7
28.1
27.2
26.2
32.5
1996-2001
26.0
24.6
19.7
21.0
25.7
2001-06
24.7
22.2
19.7
18.7
23.6
2006-11
21.9
19.8
17.1
15.9
20.7
However, the important question relates to the extent to which baby boomers will
move to a greater (or lesser) extent than previous generations of older Australians. The
whole thrust of current government policy is to reduce, or at least delay, ‘forced’ moves from
independent living to residential care. The changing of the mix of independent and
residential care in the housing of older Australians is one of the key targets of aged policy
that needs to be monitored closely. An important immediate question, however, is the extent
to which baby boomers will make residential adjustments as they enter or approach
retirement. It must be said that the jury is still out on this question. Certainly the substantial
increase in the age at which people are leaving the Australian workforce (Table 15) means
that baby boomers will have delayed the decision of whether or not to move upon retirement
compared with their counterparts of the 1990s and early 2000s.
The evidence about baby boomer residential mobility is limited and mixed. Beer and
Faulkner (2009, 133) found that 41.5 percent of respondents aged 55-64 in 2006 had moved
to their current home in the last 10 years – a higher level of mobility than is reflected in
census data. Olsberg and Winters (2005) found that two thirds of their respondents wanted to
say in their own homes. There is then a need to more fully investigate the housing intentions
of baby boomers but also to carefully monitor three key types of retirement related migration
over the next decade:
- 15 -
Table 15:
Source:
Australia: Changes in Participation Rates of the Older Population in the
Workforce, 1970-2014
ABS Labour Force Surveys
Age Group
Percent Participation
M ay 1970
M ales
June 1999
Females
M ales
Feb 2010
Females
M ales
Jan 2014
Females
M ales
Females
55-59
91.5
28.7
72.9
44.1
79.4
64.4
79.0
63.5
60-64
79.2
14.9
46.9
17.6
61.7
41.8
61.8
42.5
65+
23.2
3.6
9.7
3.2
14.8
6.4
16.0
7.5
1.
Migration to environmentally amenable resort communities in coastal, riverine and
other non-metropolitan areas.
2.
Voluntary trading down to more age-appropriate housing within metropolitan areas.
3.
Involuntary trading down among renters and mortgage holders who are unable to keep
up payments when they cease full-time work.
While recognising that any significant shift in residential mobility levels and patterns
may produce changes, we will now turn to examine the current spatial distribution of older
Australians. Ageing in place has been, and will continue to be, the major process whereby
the older population of any area will increase or decrease and this has advantages in
facilitating projection of future changes in the aged population of individual areas.
Table 16 shows that the majority (65.4 percent) of Australia’s older population live in
major cities (those with more than 100,000 residents). However, they are less concentrated in
these cities than is the case for the total population (69.5 percent). Until 1996 the proportion
of major city populations aged 65+ was above the total population average but the increasing
movement of older people to coastal areas and regional cities has changed the
metropolitan/non-metropolitan balance. Moreover the extent to which this has occurred is
masked to some extent in Table 16 because over the 1981-2011 period a number of regional
centres increased in population and moved from being ‘other urban’ to ‘major urban’.
- 16 -
Moreover there was a considerable extension of the urban boundaries of Australian capital
cities. Hence, the redistribution from larger cities to smaller cities and urban places is greater
than is indicated in Table 16. The proportion of the elderly living in rural areas has increased
slightly between 1981 and 2011 but 11.1 percent of the nation’s 65+ population live in such
areas compared with 10.9 percent of the total population. The rural elderly grew significantly
faster (2.65 percent per annum) than the total population in rural areas (0.38 percent) between
1981 and 2011.
Table 16:
Source:
Australia: Growth of Population, 1981-2011
ABS Censuses 1981 and 2011
65+ Population
Section of State
1981
No.
2011
Total
Annual Rate of Growth
Population
1981-2011
%
No.
%
2011 (%)
Population
Total
Major Urban
919,096
64.3
1,965,505
65.4
69.5
2.57
1.61
Other Urban
358,562
25.1
708,788
23.6
19.6
2.30
0.81
Rural
151,743
10.6
332,460
11.1
10.9
2.65
0.38
Total
1,429,401
100.0
3,006,733
100.0
100.0
2.51
1.29
There is a problem in interpreting the data in Table 16 due to the movement of places
between categories over an intercensal period. In order to overcome this we have held the
capital city division boundaries constant between 2006 and 2011 to compare the changes in
the total and 65+ population. This analysis indicates that for the total population the average
annual growth rates between 2006 and 2011 are 1.8 percent compared with 1.26 percent for
non-metropolitan areas outside of the capital cities. However, for the 65+ population, the
situation is reversed. In the capitals the 65+ population grew by 2.45 percent per annum – a
very fast growth rate – 36 percent higher than that for the total population. However, for
non-metropolitan areas the 65+ population grew even faster at 2.9 percent per annum –
130 percent higher than for the total population. This is clear evidence that the older
- 17 -
population is growing faster outside of the capitals than within them. Moreover it is also
evident that retirement migration from capitals to non-metropolitan, especially coastal, areas
is playing a role in this.
While it is important to bear in mind that over a third of older Australians live in
places of less than 100,000 inhabitants, the majority live in large cities, especially the
metropolitan capital cities. It is important, therefore, to examine the changing distribution of
older populations in those cities. To illustrate some of the key patterns we will use
Metropolitan Adelaide. Figure 8 presents data on the changing distribution of older people
within Adelaide between 1971 and 2011 and divides the metropolitan area up into inner,
Figure 8:
Adelaide Statistical Division: Distribution of Population Aged 65 Years
and Over Between Metropolitan Sectors, 1971-2011
ABS 1971 to 2011
Source:
80,000
70,000
Persons
60,000
50,000
Inner
40,000
Coastal
Middle
30,000
Outer
20,000
10,000
0
1971
1981
1991
1996
Year
2001
2006
2011
coastal, middle and outer sectors, the boundaries of which have been presented elsewhere
(Hugo, Rudd and Downie, 1984). Some quite spectacular changes are in evidence over the
last 40 years in which the aged population of Adelaide more than doubled. In 1971 almost a
- 18 -
third of Adelaide’s elderly lived in the inner suburbs where 15.4 percent of the population
were aged 65 or over and a similar situation applied in the coastal SLAs. Together these
older areas had 44.5 percent of the elderly. However, by 1991 the elderly population of the
inner suburbs had begun to decline so that their share of the 65+ proportion fell from 30 to
13.4 percent. Similarly with the coastal suburbs where, although there was growth in
numbers, their share of the total Adelaide aged population fell. Together they accounted for
28.1 percent of the city’s elderly. By 2011 these patterns had continued so that only 24.4
percent of the 65+ population lived in these two areas although coastal areas maintained their
share. Clearly urban renewal, urban consolidation and gentrification have had significant
impacts in these areas and much of the recent population growth in these areas has been of
younger people.
The middle suburbs show an interesting pattern with the numbers aged 65+ doubling
between 1971 and 1991 and their share of the metropolitan aged population increasing to
45.6 percent. However since then the numbers have begun to decline with the death and
outmigration of older people who had settled these suburbs as young families in the late
1940s, 1950s and 1960s. Accordingly their share of the metropolitan aged population has
fallen to 33.3 percent in 2011. Nevertheless the number of older people in the middle
suburbs is still substantial. The real growth of older populations however is in the outer
suburbs. The number of people aged 65+ in this area quadrupled between 1971 and 1991 and
more than doubled again by 2011. The proportion of the Adelaide population aged 65+ in
this zone has increased from 12.4 percent in 1971 to 42.3 percent in 2011. The older
population in this area increased about 8 times over the last three decades to number 77,350.
Hence a much greater proportion of our older population are living in low density suburbs
with nucleated shopping centres, low density network of public transport and low density of
services for the elderly. The crucial point is that the centre of gravity in the spatial
- 19 -
distribution of older persons has shifted from the inner to the middle suburbs and the most
rapid rate of growth of the aged population is even further out in the outer suburbs.
There is an important deconcentration of the older population in Adelaide occurring
as is evident in Figure 9 which depicts the growth rate of the 65+ population by SLA over the
2006-11 intercensal period. A striking pattern is in evidence with all growth above 5 percent
per annum being in the outer suburbs while inner and inner-middle suburbs experienced slow
growth or even declines in the number of older people5. The only other growth area is in the
Figure 9:
Source:
5
Adelaide Statistical Division: Growth of the Population Aged 65+ by
SLA, 2006-11
ABS 2006 and 2011 Census
The Elizabeth area is also experiencing a decline of its older population reflecting the fact that it was
developed as a satellite city in the 1950s.
- 20 -
long established seaside area of Holdfast Bay which is favoured both for retirement migration
and has a number of aged care residential facilities.
The patterns and dynamics described here for Adelaide are duplicated in other capital
cities and can be summarised as follows:

The highest concentrations in terms of the percentage of the total population aged 65+
and 75+ are highest in inner and middle suburbs due largely to institutions being
located in these areas. The largest numbers of older people is now in the middle
suburbs but the fastest growing numbers are in the outer suburbs.

In the past most people in the pre-retirement ages or retirement ages have ‘aged in
place’ in the same house in which they bought up their children.

There are some interesting signs that the baby boomer generation may be showing a
greater tendency to sell the family home when they have become ‘empty nesters’.
This however is yet to be fully established since baby boomers are delaying
retirement.

There are some patterns where baby boomers are selling their houses in the outer
suburbs and downsizing to inner suburban areas and coastal suburbs within the
metropolitan area.
The changing distribution of older people within Australian metropolitan areas raises
important issues about providing services to them. Where the services are mobile and homebased, shifts in the population distribution can readily be accommodated. However, where
they involve fixed capital investment, as is the case with residential care establishments, there
are the dangers of an increasing mismatch between the location of the supply (residential
care) and of demand (older people). Figure 10 depicts the distribution of aged care beds in
Metropolitan Adelaide in 2000 and 2013. This shows that there has been a significant change
- 21 -
Figure 10:
Metropolitan Adelaide Sectors and Aged Care Beds, 2000 and 2013
- 22 -
in the distribution over this period in response to the changing distribution of the aged
population discussed here. Table 17 shows how there has been a significant change in the
distribution of aged care beds in Adelaide over the 2000-13 period with an 18.6 percent
decline in the inner suburbs and a doubling in the outer suburbs. Clearly there has been a
significant response to the changing distribution of the older population in Adelaide.
Table 17:
Source:
Adelaide Statistical Division: Number of Aged Care Beds in Suburban
Sectors, 2000 and 2013
Aylward, Hugo and Harris 2000; Department of Social Services, unpublished
data
Low Care Beds
High Care Beds
Total Beds
% Change
Suburban Sector
2000
2013
2000
2013
2000
2013
537
696
780
651
1317
1347
2.3
Inner
1290
889
1618
1479
2908
2368
-18.6
Middle
1836
1970
2311
2161
4147
4131
-0.4
Outer
1299
2244
1269
2932
2568
5176
101.6
Total
4962
5799
5978
7223
10940
13022
19.0
Coastal
2000-2013
However, the growth of the aged population over the next three decades will be
unprecedentedly high and the dangers of a mismatch between the location of aged care
residential facilities and of the older people needing them increasing. Table 18 shows the
projected increase in Adelaide’s older population over the period 2011-26. Some 54.3
percent of the growth of the 70+ population will be in the outer suburbs and another 26.5
percent in the middle suburbs. Hence there will be an increasing mismatch between the
distribution of beds and the distribution of older people unless the decentralisation of beds,
which has been recorded over 2000-2013 is continued (Table 19).
In considering the changing distribution of the older population it is important to bear
in mind that more than a third of aged Australians live outside the capital cities. There are
particular concentrations in the following ‘types’ of non-metropolitan areas.
- 23 -
Table 18:
Metropolitan Adelaide: Total Population and Aged 70+, 2011 and
Projected 2021 and 2026
ABS 2011 Census and ABS for the purpose of the Commonwealth, through
the Dept. of Health and Ageing, and other governments, 2007
Source:
2011
2021
2026
Suburban Sector
Total
70+
Total
70+
Total
70+
Coastal
104562
14626
111308
18630
113273
21098
Inner
144029
16865
170895
21676
180249
25035
Middle
365171
47449
408564
60141
425330
67747
Outer
554644
53035
635464
80827
665689
94587
Total
1168406
131975
1326231
181274
1384541
208467
Table 19:
Source:

Metropolitan Adelaide: Number Beds/1000 persons Aged 70+, 2011 and
Projected 2021 and 2026
ABS 2011 Census and ABS for the purpose of the Commonwealth, through
the Dept. of Health and Ageing, and other governments, 2007
Suburban Sector
2011
2021
2026
Coastal
92.1
72.3
63.8
Inner
140.4
109.2
94.6
Middle
87.1
68.7
61.0
Outer
97.6
64.0
54.7
Total
98.7
71.8
62.5
Firstly, there are particular concentrations in non-metropolitan coastal resort areas.
This is particularly noticeable along the northern and southern coast of New South
Wales and in southeastern Queensland with the growth fuelled particularly by
retirement migration toward attractive environment and equable climates. A
particular feature of these developments has been widespread patterns of people
taking up more or less full-time residence in their former holiday homes upon
retirement.
- 24 -

A similar ‘holiday shack’ associated development can be identified along rivers,
especially the River Murray.

Another pattern associated with older people seeking out attractive environments
upon retirement, once they are freed from the necessity of living within commuting
range of their workplace, is the growth of retirement communities in favourable
inland ecological areas near the larger cities.

Many country towns have an above average concentration of older people. This often
reflects a pattern of older people retiring off of farm properties into nearby towns
which allows them to maintain (and perhaps even enhance) existing local social
networks and ‘keep an eye’ on their children who have taken over the farm.

The remainder of non-metropolitan LGAs with above average concentrations of older
people are found in the more closely settled agricultural areas of the respective states.
These also tend to be the longest settled agricultural parts of those states although
located beyond the commuting zones of the largest cities, they tend to be the most
accessible of the purely agricultural areas to the capital cities. Here the above average
levels of ageing are less a function of inmovement of older persons than of the heavy
outmovement of younger adults from these older areas – one of the stereotypical
characteristics of rural depopulation is an ‘old’ population structure. In particular
localities (especially in seaside, riverside and other scenically attractive medium sized
country towns) this effect may be supplemented by inmigration of retirees, especially
those moving off of farms.
Within non metropolitan areas there is a strong likelihood that the growth of the aged
population will be more influenced by internal migration than is the case within metropolitan
areas where most people age in place after retirement. Figure 11 shows the net migration by
age and sex for areas outside of the Capital Cities in Australia for the 2006-11 period. This
- 25 -
shows definitely that there was a net migration gain in these areas and the pre-retirement and
retirement ages. This overwhelmingly reflects retirement migration out of Australia’s
capitals. To what extent baby boomers make these moves to coastal areas and other favoured
non-metropolitan locations will influence the growth of the aged population outside of cities.
Currently through there is a higher percentage of older Australians living outside the capitals
than is the case for the total population and the aged population is growing faster outside the
capitals than within them.
Figure 11:
Source:
Australia: Rest of State Age-Sex Specific Net Migration Profile, 2006-2011
ABS 2006 and 2011 Censuses
40,000
Males
Females
30,000
Net Migration
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
Age
Conclusion
This short paper has sought to present the ‘facts’ insofar as it is possible on the
changing size, characteristics and distribution of Australia’s older population. We can be
very certain about the future size of this population, many of the characteristics of the future
aged population are also fixed and many are currently living where they will be living when
they enter old age. There are some uncertainties and these will strongly be influenced by
policy interventions. Some of the most important of these are:
- 26 -

How healthy will baby boomers be in old age? The signs are not good here but real
efforts to reduce obesity among baby boomers could have massive dividends in
improving their lives in old age but substantially reducing demands on the health and
aged care systems.

How many baby boomers will move as they approach or enter retirement? This will
be influenced by whether or not they continue working into old age, the availability of
alternative housing options, patterns of partnering among baby boomers, etc.

What will be the preferences of baby boomers for housing – both while they are fully
independent and when they need care?
A crucial element relates to what it means for the aged care workforce. There is a
need not only to focus on the changing demography of the aged population but also on the
workers involved in the industry proving support to them. In this respect the Productivity
Commission (2011) has calculated the projections in Table 20 and this suggests that there
will be a more than doubling of demand in the next two decades.
Table 20:
Source:
Projections of Aged Care Workforce Demand
Productivity Commission 2011
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Direct care workers (FTE workers)
85,000
107,000
157,000
254,000
353,000
Direct care workers (total workers)
144,000
182,000
266,000
431,000
598,000
189,000
239,000
349,000
565,000
785,000
Direct care workers (FTE workers)
11,000
41,000
57,000
82,000
102,000
Direct care workers (total workers)
19,000
66,000
92,000
132,000
164,000
22,000
78,000
109,000
156,000
194,000
212,000
317,000
459,000
721,000
979,000
Residential Care
Total residential care workforce
(direct and support workers)
Community Care
Total community care workforce
(direct and support workers)
Total Workforce Requirement
a
a
Total workforce requirement may not reflect sum of components due to rounding.
- 27 -
The picture of substantial growth in the aged care sector is in broad outline a very
clear one. The overall dimensions of growth are determined by demography. It is the detail
which needs to be clarified in terms of how the older baby boomer population is segmented
into meaningful groups in terms of their demand and need for particular type of housing and a
range of services and where they will be living.
- 28 -
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