Corporate Valuation Equations & Procedures (1) Constant Growth Model: معدل النمو الثابت P D0 * (1 g ) kg (2) Two Growth Model: أحدهما مؤقت و اآلخر دائم،معدلين نمو 1 g1 1 g1 N P D0 k g1 1 k 1 g1 1 g 2 * k g1 k g 2 (3) Multiple Growth Model: عدة معدالت نمو اخرها دائم D1 D0 (1 g1 ) D2 D0 (1 g1 )(1 g 2 ) . . Dn D0 (1 g1 )(1 g 2 )...(1 g n ) Stochastics العشوائيات (4) Additive عشوائي بإضافة ثابتة D0 1 1 C* p* 2 k k k P: Price C: constant increase in dividends p: probability (such as paying out dividends 5 times in 9 years) k: cost of equity العائد على حقوق المالكين : Dividends D0 P (5) Additive with BR عشوائي بإضافة ثابتة مع احتمال إفالس 1 D0 * (1 BR ) 1 C* p* 2 k k BR (k BR ) BR: Bankruptcy P (6) Geometric عشوائي بنمو نسبي P D0 (1 p * g ) k p*g (7) Geometric with BR عشوائي بنمو نسبي مع احتمال إفالس P D0 * (1 ( p * g ) BR ) k ( p * g ) BR 1 Corporate Valuation Equations & Procedures (8) Additive with Dividend Cuts عشوائي إضافي ثابت مع تنزيل P D0 1 1 ( 2 ) * C * ( pu p d ) k k k (9) Additive with cuts and BR عشوائي إضافي ثابت مع تنزيل و إفالس P D0 * (1 BR ) 1 1 * C * ( pu p d ) 2 k BR k BR (k BR ) (10) Geometric with cuts عشوائي بنمو مع تنزيل P D0 1 ( pu pd )* g k ( pu p d ) * g (11) Geometric with cuts and BR عشوائي بنمو مع تنزيل مع احتمال إفالس P D0 (1 ( pu p d ) * g BR ) k ( pu pd ) * g BR Projecting the FCF: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. NOPAT = Operating Profit – Tax on Operating Profit Operating Current Assets (OCA) = Cash + Inventory + Accounts Receivable Operating Current Liabilities (OCL) = Accounts Payable + Accrued Expenses Net Operating Working Capital (NOWC) = OCA – OCL Total Net Operating Capital (Total Operating Current Assets) = NOWC + Net PPE (Net Operating Long Term Assets) Investment in Total Net Operating Capital = (Total Net Operating Capital)n – (Total Net Operating Capital)n-1 FCF = NOPAT – Investment in Total Net Operating Capital ROIC = NOPAT / (Total Net Operating Capital)n-1 Tax Rate = Taxes / Earnings before Taxes Estimating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital: WACC = Rd * Wd (1 – t) + Re * We a. Rd: cost of debt = YTM (annual) b. Wd: weight of debt c. T: tax d. Re: cost of equity = rf + B * Risk Premium = rf + B * (rm – rf) e. We: weight of equity 2 Corporate Valuation Equations & Procedures Estimating the Per Share Value: FCFn 1 FCFn (1 g ) WACC g WACC g Debt = Long Term Debt at MV + Short Term Debt at BV PV = Value of Operations = NPV Value of Equity = PV of Operations – Debt Price Per Share = Value of Equity / # of Shares 1. HV n 2. 3. 4. 5. Projections of Financials and Valuation: 1. Interest Income = Interest Rate on Short Term Investment * (Short Term Investments)n-1 2. Interest Expense = Interest Rate on Debt * (ST Debt + LT Debt)n-1 3. Additions to Retained Earnings = Net Income – Dividends 4. (Retained Earnings)n = (Retained Earnings)n-1 + Additions to RE 5. Total Common Equity = Common Stock + Retained Earnings 6. Specified Assets = OCA + Net PPE 7. Specified Liabilities = OCL + LT Debt + Total Common Equity 8. Total Value of Firm = PV of Operations + Value of Investments 9. PV of Operations = NPV(WACC,FCF1, ….., FCFN). FCFN includes HV. 10. Value of all Debt, preferred stock, and other non-operation liabilities = ST Debt + LT Debt (in the class example; might be changed in other examples) Ratios & Equations: 1. ROE = NI / Equity EPS Dividends EPS 3. Growth Rate = ROE * RR معدل النمو لتوسع الشركة 4. Growth in Dividends = (D1 – D0) / D0 5. Growth in Sales = (S1 – S0) / S0 6. PE = PPS / EPS; PE هو مضاعف الربحية و عكسه هو معدل العائد المطلوب مقابل كل دينار يتم دفعه When PE increase, stability decrease. 7. SPS = Sales / # of Shares 8. PS = PPS / SPS ()كم دينار أنا مستعد أن أدفع مقابل كل دينار تحصله الشركة للسهم الواحد 9. Value of Operations (Vop) = VD + VE 10. Book Value Per Share (BVPS) = VE / # of Shares 11. Price to Book Ratio (PB) = P / BVPS; P is the MV ()القيمة السوقية 12. PPS = PE * EPS = VE / # of Shares; VE is the MV capitalization 13. BVPS = Equity (from the B/S) / # of Shares 14. g = RR * ROE = (1-payout) * ROE 2. Re tentionRate( RR ) 3