Logistic regression, survival analysis, model II regression Logistic regression • Response (dependent) variable is either – yes/ no (alive/ dead, flowering/sterile) – Number of positive cases out of total (seed germination, number of flowering individuals out of total no of individuals) – assuming binomial distribution • Regression model predicts probability, i.e. value between 0 and 1 Logistic regression 2 • Logit transformation: log( p / (1-p) ) = log (odds ratio) • Can not be applied directly to 0/1, applied on predicted probabilities: p in (0, 1) • Special case of Generalized linear models (GLM) Logistická regrese a Statistica • Example – survival of winter depending on flowering and rhizome size • Advanced Linear / Nonlinear Models • Generalized ... Models • Logit model • Or non-linear estimation... Possible application • Example – how is the probability of survival over the winter affected by flowering in previous summer, storage of sugars, and length of the winter? • Surmalog.xls, list ReprEff Survival analysis • Survival analysis, mainly in medicine • Useful for data (usually about time) with censoring • Most often right censoring: I have finished the experiment, but some individuals are still alive (or did not germinate yet etc.] • Left censoring • For data without censoring are probably simpler methods available - mostly generalized linear models) Survival curve • Kaplan-Meier method: Míra rizika • Hazard rate, l: pravděpodobnost, že jedinec přežije časový úsek t, pokud se jej již dožil • Kumulativní funkce míry rizika L(t): ve vztahu ke křivce přežívání platí: L(t) = - log S(t) • Využití l u složitějších modelů analýzy přežívání (Coxův model relativního rizika, Cox proportional hazard rate): l(t) = l0(t)*eb0+b1x1+b2x2+… Use of survival analysis? • Comparison of survival curves among groups • Estimate “halftime” (of life, survival time, time to germination) with confidence interval • Testing effects of both quantitative and qualitative predictors Survival analysis - exercises • Germination dynamics affected by chilling, file Surmalog.xls, sheet Germination, method Comparing two samples • Effect of radio-collars on survival of antilops -obojků na úmrtnost antilop, file Surmalog.xls, sheet RadioCollars, method Regression / Proportional hazard (Cox) regression Regression model typ II • In ordinary Least Squares, in dependence of Y on X, vertical differences are minimized (i.e. (Y-Ypredicted)2 • Similarly, if we study X ~ Y, (XXpredicted)2 is minimized. • The angel among the two lines decreases with increasing (r) • Major axis (MA) regression – symmetric – what is perpendicular depends on units – various standardizations MA regression: motivation • Zkoumáme vztah mezi délkou (L) a hmotností (M) jedinců určitého druhu • Pokud se tvar těla s růstem nemění (isometrický růst), lze vztah popsat takto: M = c*L3 a po logaritmování: log(M) = b0 + 3*log(L), kde b0 = log(c) • Při užití „normální“ regrese bude ale odhadnutý koeficient b1 < 3 Alometric biomass partitioning • Allometric biomass partitioning theory (APT): : Mleaves = b1*Mroots3/4 B.J. Enquist & K.J. Nikolas (2002): Global allocation rules for patterns of biomass partitioning in seed plants. Science 295, 1517-1520. MA regression: example • Vztah biomasy listů a stonků: Mleaves = b1*Mroots3/4 • After log transformation, slope should be 0.75 • Various herb species • RMA program : • http://www.bio.sdsu.edu/pub/andy/rma.html