© 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com 1 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Used by investors, creditors, management, and regulators to assess a firm’s financial condition and performance Ratios can “standardize” F/S information and make it possible to compare companies of varying sizes Anyone can crunch the numbers and generate the ratios…the real skill is putting life into the numbers 2 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. (1) Determine the purpose of the analysis (2) Gather data (3) Process the data : calculate ratios, etc. (4) Analyze and interpret the data (5) Make conclusions (6) Follow-up, as necessary 3 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. The analyst should set the stage properly for the analysis by understanding the landscape. Failure to do so could lead to wasted time, effort, and resources as the analyst keeps bumping into brick walls: What is the purpose of the analysis? What level of detail will be needed? What data are available? What are the factors and relationships that will influence the analysis? What are the analytical limitations? Will these impair the analysis? The analyst can then select the appropriate tools to be used for the analysis 4 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Analysis goes beyond merely gathering data, compiling data into a spreadsheet, and generating graphs or charts Effective analysis of historical performance includes understanding WHAT happened, WHY it happened, and HOW it fits into the overall company strategy What aspects of performance are critical for the company to successfully compete? How well did the company’s performance meet these critical aspects? (Compare the company’s performance vs. benchmarks) What were the key causes of this performance, and how does this performance reflect the company’s strategy? 5 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Additional guide questions for forward-looking analysis: What is the likely impact of the trends in the company, industry, and economy on future cash flows? What is the likely response of management to trends? What are the recommendations of the analyst? What risks should be highlighted? 6 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Motorola ($ Millions) Net sales Operating earnings Nokia Corporation (EUR Millions) Net sales Operating earnings 12/31/2005 12/31/2004 12/31/2003 36,843 31,323 23,155 4,696 3,132 1,273 12/31/2005 12/31/2004 12/31/2003 34,191 29,371 29,533 4,639 4,326 4,960 Analysis notes: The raw numbers are not directly comparable due to different currencies…thus, look at trends and percentages. Note: at that time, Nokia was the industry leader Compare the following for the two companies: Trends in sales and operating earnings growth Motorola shifted strategies: increase its presence in consumer marketing / consumer products to complement its historically strong technological position From Motorola’s 10-K in 2005: The introduction of the RAZR in 2004, which sold more than 23 million units since being launched. The handset segment reprsented 54% of 2004 sales, and 58% of 2005 sales. 7 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Compare apples vs. apples: use F/S of companies that cover the same time period Use audited F/S whenever possible Garbage in, garbage out Cost vs. benefit tradeoff: A core set of 25 to 30 ratios will usually provide you with just about the same important information that 100 ratios will give you 8 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. The numbers, by themselves, are meaningless Benchmarks are needed to make meaningful comparisons: Budgets, goals, and strategies Own historical performance General industry averages Similarly-situated peers Regulatory requirements 9 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Care must be taken when using industry norms: Some ratios are industry-specific A single company might have several different lines of businesses, thereby distorting the value of ratios calculated at the Parent (or aggregate) level Difference in strategies for each division can affect the usefulness of some ratios Different accounting methods 10 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Evaluation of past performance Assessment of the current financial position Gain insights useful for projecting future results: Microeconomic relationships within a company Financial flexibility: ability to obtain cash to grow the business, ability to pay obligations, etc. Management’s capability Ratios are not the end-game answers. Ratios are just the starting point and indicate where to conduct further investigation. 11 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. The goal is to understand the reasons for differences between a company’s performance vs. its peers…hence, the importance of selecting appropriate benchmarks Even ratios that remain stable require understanding (and analysis) because there could be accounting policies selected to smooth out the trends 12 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com What is a good or bad ratio? Ratios tell you “what” happened, but not “why” it happened. Analysts must understand WHY things happened. ABC Inc. Net Income Revenue Net Profit Margin (NPM) XYZ Inc. Php 500,000 Php 12,000,000 Php 10,000,000 Php 400,000,000 5.0% 3.0% Which company is more profitable? WHY does ABC Inc. have a higher NPM? Is it due to higher selling price or better cost control or something else? What is the better measure of profitability? Is it the 5.0% or the Php 1,200,000? Are there economies of scale that would make the absolute Peso value more important than the NPM percentage? 13 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com The use of alternative accounting methods can distort the comparability of ratios…hence, analyst adjustments might be necessary. Some ratios that would be affected: 1. Inventory turnover 2. Days to sell inventory 3. Operating cycle 4. Cash conversion cycle 5. Gross profit margin 6. Operating profit margin 7. Net profit margin 8. Return on assets 9. Return on equity 10. Current ratio 14 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Some ratios are not relevant to certain companies or industries. Conglomerates may have divisions operating in many different industries, which can make it difficult to find comparable industry ratios at the parent company level. 15 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. The need to use human judgment in gathering data, interviewing management, selecting the ratios, and analyzing results. Some ratios might indicate conflicting signals. Inflationary conditions can distort ratios. The number of ratios that can be created is practically limitless. When faced with a new ratio, simply analyze each component separately in order to understand it. Financial ratios will eventually vary across time and across industries. The challenge is to interpret the differences properly…in some cases, interpretation can be situation-specific. 16 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Rule of thumb: if the numerator comes from the Income Statement and the denominator comes from the Balance Sheet, then: Ratio = Income Statement figure Average of the Balance Sheet figure Jan 1 + Dec 31 Average = 2 Average = Average = Mar 31 + June 30 + Sept 30 + Dec 31 4 Jan 31 + Feb 28 + Mar 31 + ⋯ + Oct 31 + Nov 30 + Dec 31 12 The analyst can average using end-Quarter or end-Month figures to account for seasonalities. 17 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Other possible types of “averages”: Average = Average = Average = Jan 1 + June 30 + Dec 31 3 Jan 1 + Mar 31 + June 30 + Sept 30 + Dec 31 5 Jan 1 + Jan 31 + Feb 28 + Mar 31 + ⋯ + Nov 30 + Dec 31 13 The analyst can average using end-Quarter or end-Month figures to account for seasonalities. 18 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Intuitively: it’s not practical to take the sum of the denominator for 365 days, then divide it by 365 days, in order to match it with the 365 days of the numerator: Income Statement item: Sum for 365 days Average = Balance Sheet item: Sum for 365 days 365 days 19 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. If the denominator (i.e. B/S item) is fairly stable all throughout the year(s), then it would not matter if “beginning”, “ending”, or “average” amounts are used. If the denominator (i.e. B/S item) either increased or decreased substantially during the year, then use the “average” amount: It is difficult to ascertain whether the numerator (i.e. I/S item) was generated by February assets or November assets. Intuitively: Revenues and Expenses are generated by Assets, Liabilities, or Equity. Conceptually, more of the denominator (B/S item) should lead to more of the numerator (I/S item). 20 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Two powerful tools to begin the number crunching: transform the Financial Statements from Peso amounts into percentages in order to perform: Vertical Analysis Horizontal Analysis or “trend analysis” These can reveal possible red flags even before specific ratios are calculated. 21 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Common-size Balance Sheet: All items as a % of Total Assets Total Assets = 100% The analyst can dissect the composition of the B/S: What is the mix of assets? ▪ Current, non-current, tangible, intangible, etc. How is the company financing itself? ▪ Short-term debt, long-term debt, interest-bearing vs. non-interesting-bearing debt, investor investments, accumulated profits, etc. How does the company’s B/S compare to its peers, and what are the reasons for differences? 22 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com What are your observations? Alaska Milk Balance Sheet December 31 Actual 2010 Actual 2009 Vertical 2010 Vertical 2009 (in Php) Notes to FS ASSETS Current Assets Cash and cash equivalents 5, 26, 27 ST investments 6, 24, 26, 27 Trade and other receivables 7, 26, 27, 30 Inventories 8 Prepaid expenses and other current assets 26, 27 Total current assets 1,110,623,996 1,833,983,891 827,839,418 2,117,670,472 38,970,814 5,929,088,591 857,054,066 1,044,563,465 893,566,768 1,153,181,393 33,263,909 3,981,629,601 12.15% 20.07% 9.06% 23.17% 0.43% 64.87% 11.79% 14.37% 12.29% 15.86% 0.46% 54.76% Noncurrent Assets Available-for-sale investments Property, plant and equipment Intangible assets - net Deferred tax assets Net pension assets Other noncurrent assets Total noncurrent assets 2,556,403 1,562,810,605 1,310,444,899 260,587,503 44,836,138 29,460,456 3,210,696,004 2,556,403 1,515,257,935 1,481,438,498 197,984,388 49,260,438 42,786,207 3,289,283,869 0.03% 17.10% 14.34% 2.85% 0.49% 0.32% 35.13% 0.04% 20.84% 20.37% 2.72% 0.68% 0.59% 45.24% 9,139,784,595 7,270,913,470 100.00% 100.00% TOTAL ASSETS 9, 26, 27 10 11, 25 21 20 26, 27 23 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Alaska Milk Balance Sheet December 31 What are your observations? (in Php) Notes to FS LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLERS' EQUITY Current liabilities Trade and other payables 12, 25, 26, 27 Acceptances payable 26, 27 Income tax payable Dividends payable 14, 26, 27 Current portion of obligation under finance 25, 26, 27 leases Total current liabilities Actual 2010 2,096,022,469 Actual 2009 Vertical 2010 Vertical 2009 131,913,063 125,099,266 7,227,315 3,065,044,593 1,839,819,125 560,124,762 109,980,839 52,097,499 4,019,227 2,566,041,452 22.93% 7.71% 1.44% 1.37% 0.08% 33.54% 25.30% 7.70% 1.51% 0.72% 0.06% 35.29% Noncurrent liabilities Obligation under finance leases - net25, of 26, current 27 portion 28,638,522 Total liabilities 3,093,683,115 27,465,248 2,593,506,700 0.31% 33.85% 0.38% 35.67% %704,782,480 Stockholders' Equity 26 Capital stock 13, 22 971,432,578 APIC 22 152,393,329 Retained earnings 14 Appropriated for various cpaital investment projects and share buy-back program 2,075,000,000 Unappropriated 3,249,867,801 Treasury stock 13, 14 (402,592,228) Total SHE 6,046,101,480 968,074,878 118,361,998 10.63% 1.67% 13.31% 1.63% 1,625,000,000 2,318,019,622 (352,049,728) 4,677,406,770 22.70% 35.56% -4.40% 66.15% 22.35% 31.88% -4.84% 64.33% TOTAL LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY 7,270,913,470 100.00% 100.00% 9,139,784,595 24 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Common size Income Statement: All items as a % of Total Revenues Total Revenues = 100% Several key profitability ratios will be revealed: The analyst should understand where the profits came from, as well as which types of expenses are eating up the profits Cost control is just as important as revenue growth [See Excel file “FS Analysis Examples” for further illustration] 25 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com 26 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Alaska Milk Income Statement December 31 Actual 2010 (in Php) Net sales Cost of sales GROSS PROFIT Actual 2009 Actual 2008 Vertical 2010 Vertical 2009 Vertical 2008 12,162,709,978 (7,558,650,096) 4,604,059,882 10,580,440,474 (6,821,522,353) 3,758,918,121 9,967,757,268 (7,903,815,821) 2,063,941,447 100.00% -62.15% 37.85% 100.00% -64.47% 35.53% 100.00% -79.29% 20.71% Operating expenses (2,277,295,199) Interest income 48,748,735 Foreign exchange gain (loss) (40,319,512) Gain on disposals of PPE and investment properties3,216,898 Interest expense on obligation under finance leases (2,100,081) Casualty loss Interest expense on bank loans Rent income Dividend income and others (1,998) Total expenses (2,267,751,157) (1,869,510,056) 24,646,247 (26,700,674) 766,164 (1,867,856) (156,536,291) (2,453,962) 13,892 (2,031,642,536) (1,599,921,570) 4,952,263 13,985,346 9,431,114 (60,321,826) 427,891 1,174,323 (1,630,272,459) -18.72% 0.40% -0.33% 0.03% -0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -18.65% -17.67% 0.23% -0.25% 0.01% -0.02% -1.48% -0.02% 0.00% 0.00% -19.20% -16.05% 0.05% 0.14% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% -0.61% 0.00% 0.01% -16.36% 2,336,308,725 1,727,275,585 433,668,988 19.21% 16.33% 4.35% 583,312,875 (62,603,115) 520,709,760 361,555,720 (43,668,855) 317,886,865 80,034,252 62,536,013 142,570,265 4.80% -0.51% 4.28% 3.42% -0.41% 3.00% 0.80% 0.63% 1.43% TOTAL COMPREHENSIVE INCOME / NET INCOME 1,815,598,965 1,409,388,720 291,098,723 14.93% 13.32% 27 2.92% INCOME BEFORE INCOME TAX PROVISION FOR (BENEFIT FROM) INCOME TAX Current Deferred Subtotal © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com The potential for growth of a business is important. Trend analysis shows whether the company has experienced growth in the recent past: If there has been growth, can it be sustained? How will it be sustained or increased? If there has been little growth, why? Is there any growth in the future? Where will it come from? If the company expects growth in the coming years, does it have the necessary resources to support it? Ex: cash, equipment, employees, funding sources, etc. If the company does not foresee growth, what does it plan to do with its existing assets and liabilities? 28 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Growth in receivables and inventory vs. growth in revenues: It is generally more desirable for inventory and receivables to grow at the same or slower pace than revenue growth If receivables grow faster than revenues, this can indicate operational issues, such as lower credit standards or aggressive accounting policies for revenue recognition If inventory grows faster than revenue growth, this can indicate operational problems such as obsolescence or aggressive accounting policies (improper overstatement of inventory to increase profits) 29 Trends!!! © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com 30 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Operating Efficiency Ratios | Activity Ratios: Measures how efficiently a company performs day-to-day tasks, such as collecting receivables Liquidity Ratios: Measures the ability to meet short-term obligations Solvency Ratios: Measures the ability to meet long-term obligations Coverage Ratios: Measures the ability to meet regular debt (re)payments Profitability Ratios Return on Sales Return on Investment Different ratios measure different aspects of the business Cash Flow Ratios 31 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com RATIO CALCULATION WHAT IT MEASURES BETTER IF Inventory Turnover (ITO) Cost of Goods Sold ÷ Average Inventory How long it takes to sell inventory Higher Days to Sell Inventory 365 days ÷ ITO How long it takes to sell inventory Lower Accounts Receivable Turnover (ARTO) Net Credit Sales ÷ Average A/R How long it takes to collect accounts receivable from customers Higher Average A/R Collection Period 365 days ÷ ARTO How long it takes to collect accounts receivable from customers Lower Allowance Adequacy ADA ÷ (A/R, net + ADA) The proportion of receivables covered by allowance for bad debts Higher Accounts Payable Turnover (APTO) Cost of Goods Sold ÷ Average A/P How long it takes to pay suppliers Lower APTO variant Purchases ÷ Average A/P How long it takes to pay suppliers Lower Average A/P Payment Period 365 days ÷ APTO How long it takes to pay suppliers Higher 32 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Inventory Turnover : Measures how many times per year the entire inventory was theoretically “turned over” or sold. Cost of Goods Sold Php 240,000 ITO = = = 24x Average Inventory Php 10,000 Days to Sell = 365 days 365 days = = 15.21 days ITO 24x Inventory was theoretically sold out 24 times during the year. Every 15 days, the warehouse would be emptied, then become full again…then become empty after 15 days…and so forth. The same logic / intuition applies to Receivables Turnover and Payables Turnover 33 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Jan 1 Jan 16 10,000 Full –Empty 10,000 Full Jan 31 Feb 15 March 2 March 17 April 1 April 16 May 1 May 16 –Empty 10,000 Full –Empty 10,000 Full The cycle of “full” then “empty” happens 24x during the year –Empty 10,000 Full –Empty 10,000 Full –Empty 10,000 Full –Empty 10,000 Full –Empty … 10,000 Full … 34 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com If interim (i.e. less than full-year) data are used, calculate the corresponding “annualized” figure: COGS for 1Q 2013 : Php 3,500,000 Average inventory for 1Q 2013 : Php250,000 Cost of Goods Sold Php 3,500,000 1Q 2013 ITO = = = 14.00x for 1Q 2013 Average Inventory Php 250,000 Annualized ITO = Annualized ITO = 12 months 3 months 365 days 90 days ∗ 14x = 56.00x for FY2013 ∗ 14x = 56.78x for FY2013 365 days 365 days Days to Sell = = = 6.43 days ITO 56.78x 35 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Inventory Turnover = Cost of Goods Sold Average Inventory Days to Sell Inventory = 365 Days ITO General analytical guidelines: Low ITO (and high Days to Sell Inventory) means more resources tied up in inventory…i.e. potentially idle assets. Potential indicator of slow-moving inventory. Possible reasons: technological obsolescence, change in trends or fashion, etc. Analytical questions: WHY is inventory slow moving? (or fast moving?) WHAT are the implications for future growth? Are the effects temporary or permanent? WHAT can be done to address the situation? Useful benchmarks: (1) peers; and (2) industry norms. Analysis: compare the company’s ITO and revenue growth trend vs. the industry. GOOD: Higher ITO (vs. industry) + Same or higher revenue growth (vs. industry) Effective inventory management. BAD: Higher ITO (vs. industry) + Slower revenue growth (vs. industry) Inadequate inventory levels…which could result to inventory shortage and lost sales. 36 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com A/R Turnover = Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Net Credit Sales Average A/R Average A/R Collection Period = 365 days ARTO General analytical guidelines: Ideally, use “Net Credit Sales”. If this is not available, then just use “Sales” as reported in the Income Statement. Low ARTO (and high A/R Collection Period) means more resources tied up in receivables. Potential indicator of uncollectible receivables…i.e. problems in the credit and collection system. Analytical questions: WHY is A/R collection slow? (or fast?) WHAT are the implications for future growth? Are the effects temporary or permanent? WHAT can be done to address the situation? Useful benchmarks: (1) peers; and (2) industry norms. Analysis: compare the company’s ARTO and revenue growth trend vs. the industry. GOOD: Higher ARTO (vs. industry) + Same or higher revenue growth (vs. industry) Effective credit and collection system…receivables (and collection) are supporting sales growth properly. BAD: Higher ARTO (vs. industry) + Slower revenue growth (vs. industry) Possible indicator of very tight credit policy that could lead to lost sales (to competitors with more lenient terms) 37 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Sales Source: Fraser and Ormiston (2013). Understanding Financial Statements, 10th edition. Pearson. 2011 2010 Php 6,700,000 Php 7,500,000 202,000 320,000 3,000 12,000 A/R, net Allowance for doubtful accounts Analysis of accounts ADA ÷ (A/R, net + ADA) 2011 2010 1.5% 3.6% Growth rate: Sales − 10.7% --- Growth rate: A/R, net − 36.9% --- Growth rate: A/R, gross − 38.3% --- Growth rate: ADA − 75.0% --- - Sales have decreased so it is expected that the A/R and ADA would also decrease. A/R has decreased at a faster rate than sales while the ADA has decreased at a faster rate than accounts receivable. - The percentage of estimated bad accounts has dropped by more than a percentage point relative to the prior year. Possible explanations for this inconsistency could be: 1. The company has tightened its credit policy; 2. Prior bad debt estimates were too high and the company is correcting for this; or 3. Management has intentionally reduced bad debts to report a higher net income. 38 Source: Fraser and Ormiston (2013). Understanding Financial Statements, 10th edition. Pearson. © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Growth rate Net sales 10.5% Total accounts receivable 21.3% Allowance for doubtful accounts ` ADA as a % of total A/R 2.6% 2011 2010 3.8% 5.4% - Sales, accounts receivable and the allowance for doubtful accounts have all grown, but not proportionately. The allowance account increased only slightly, and as a percentage of total accounts receivable, the allowance account has declined from 5.4% to 3.8%. This is not a normal pattern. Possible explanations are: 1. Management overestimated the account in prior years and is now correcting for that overestimation; 2. Customers are not defaulting as anticipated and management is adjusting the allowance account accordingly, or 3. Management is reducing the allowance account in order to decrease bad debt expense and increase net income in the current year. - Other information that would be useful to the analyst would be the valuation schedule required by the SEC and any notes or information in the management's discussion and analysis related to accounts receivable and bad debts. 39 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Cost of Goods Sold A/P Turnover = Average A/P Average A/P Payment Period = 365 Days APTO To calculate “Purchases” + Cost of Goods Sold + Ending Inventory − Beginning Inventory = Purchases General analytical guidelines: Implicit assumption: all purchases are made on credit (i.e. no outright cash payments). Use “Purchases” in the numerator Alternative: Use “Cost of Goods Sold” instead of “Purchases” High APTO (and low A/P Payment Period) could mean that the company is either: [NOT GOOD] Not making full use of abilities to delay payment (and thus retain cash inside the business); or [GOOD] Taking advantage of early payment discounts. Low APTO (and high A/P Payment Period) could mean that the company is either: [NOT GOOD] Experiencing liquidity problems…i.e. unable to pay on time; or [GOOD] Exploiting lenient payment terms from the supplier. 40 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com A/P Turnover = Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Cost of Goods Sold Average A/P Average A/P Payment Period = 365 Days APTO General analytical guidelines: Compare APTO vs. Liquidity Ratios: If the Liquidity Ratios indicate sufficient amount of liquid assets, then a low APTO (and high A/P Payment Period) could probably mean that the company is taking advantage of lenient payment terms…i.e. extending the payment period in order to retain the cash inside the business Analytical questions: WHY is A/P payment slow? (or fast?) WHAT are the implications for future growth? Are the effects temporary or permanent? WHAT can be done to address the situation? 41 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. RATIO CALCULATION WHAT IT MEASURES BETTER IF Operating Cycle Days Inventory + Average A/R Collection Period How long it takes to complete one cycle of purchasing and selling inventory Lower Cash Conversion Cycle Days Inventory + Average A/R Collection Period − Average A/P Payment Period How long it takes to complete one cycle of purchasing and selling inventory, and paying the suppliers (i.e. “cash to cash” cycle) Lower The operational efficiency of a business (i.e. Activity Ratios) has a direct impact on liquidity (i.e. Liquidity Ratios) How efficient are the resources used in generating revenues? (Assets are acquired in order to generate revenue) OPERATING CYCLE (in days) CASH CONVERSION CYCLE (in days) + Days Inventory + Days Inventory + Average A/R Collection Period + Average A/R Collection Period = Operating Cycle − Average A/P Payment Period = Cash Conversion Cycle 42 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com RATIO CALCULATION WHAT IT MEASURES BETTER IF Fixed Asset Turnover (FATO) Net Sales ÷ Average Fixed Assets How much sales did the fixed assets generate Higher Total Asset Turnover (TATO) Net Sales ÷ Average Total Assets How much sales did the total assets generate Higher Equity Turnover (ETO) Net Sales ÷ Average Stockholders’ Equity How much sales did the owners’ investments generate Higher Working Capital (WC) Current Assets − Current Liabilities How much short-term assets in excess of short-term liabilities are available Higher Working Capital Turnover (WCTO) Net Sales ÷ Average Working Capital How much sales did the working capital generate Higher Note: in the formulas, we use “Sales” and “Net Sales” interchangeably The operational efficiency of a business (i.e. Activity Ratios) has a direct impact on liquidity (i.e. Liquidity Ratios) 43 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Fixed Asset Turnover = Sales Average Fixed Assets General analytical guidelines: FATO measures how efficiently the fixed assets generated revenues FATO can be erratic: Even if the numerator is steady (or steadily increasing), the increases in the denominator may not always follow a smooth pattern. Thus, the year-to-year changes in FATO may not necessarily indicate important changes in efficiency. High FATO could indicate: Efficient use of fixed assets in generating revenues. Low FATO could indicate: Inefficient use of fixed assets in generating revenues; or The business is not yet operating at full capacity…hence, the “under utilization of fixed assets” cannot be directly linked to the concept of efficiency; or The company has new fixed assets. 44 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Total Asset Turnover = Sales Average Total Assets General analytical guidelines: TATO measures overall ability to generate revenues with a given level of assets:. TATO includes both fixed assets and current assets: Inefficient working capital management can distort TATO. It’s best to analyze TATO, FATO, and WCTO separately TATO can be erratic: Even if the numerator is steady (or steadily increasing), the increases in the denominator may not always follow a smooth pattern. Thus, the year-to-year changes in TATO may not necessarily indicate important changes in efficiency. High TATO could indicate: Efficient use of assets in generating revenues; or The business is not capital-intensive…i.e. it could be labor-intensive. Low TATO could indicate: Inefficient use of assets in generating revenues; or The business is capital-intensive; or The company has new fixed assets. 45 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Equity Turnover = Sales Average Equity Working Capital = Current Assets − Current Liabilities Working Capital Turnover = Sales Average Working Capital General analytical guidelines: Be careful when comparing ETO for different companies: Mature companies can have a capital structure comprised of lower equity and higher debt. A high ETO could mean a lower equity base…which could be a potential red flag. A low ETO could mean there was a fresh equity infusion…which is not necessarily a bad thing in itself, but the analyst should find out the reason for the equity infusion. For some companies, Working Capital can be close to zero or negative…this renders the WCTO meaningless. A low WCTO could indicate higher Current Assets compared to Current Liabilities…which is not necessarily a bad thing. 46 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. RATIO CALCULATION WHAT IT MEASURES BETTER IF Current Ratio Current Assets ÷ Current Liabilities Ability to pay short-term obligations Higher Quick Ratio (Cash + Short-term Marketable Securities + A/R) ÷ Current Liabilities Ability to pay short-term obligations Higher Cash Ratio (Cash + Short-term Marketable Securities) ÷ Current Liabilities Ability to pay short-term obligations Higher Defensive Interval Ratio (Cash + Short-term Marketable Securities + A/R) ÷ Daily Cash Expenditures Ability to pay short-term obligations Higher General analytical guidelines: Liquidity: ability to settle short-term obligations. Liquidity ratios measure how quickly assets are converted into cash. Different industries require different levels of liquidity. Assess a company’s current state of liquidity by comparing it to: Its own historical funding requirements. Anticipated future funding needs. Ability to obtain financing in the future and from what sources. Consider the existence of contingent liabilities and the likelihood of being triggered. 47 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Current Ratio = Current Assets Current Liabilities Cash + Short term Marketable Securities + A/R Quick Ratio = Current Liabilities Cash Ratio = Cash + Short term Marketable Securities Current Liabilities General analytical guidelines: Current Ratio implicitly assumes that Inventories and Accounts Receivable are truly liquid: Double-check Current Ratio against the Inventory Turnover and A/R Turnover ratios. If ITO and ARTO are poor, then it’s better to use the Quick Ratio or Cash Ratio. Low Current Ratio indicates poor liquidity: Implication: greater reliance on Operating Cash Flow and external financing to meet short-term obligations. Quick Ratio implicitly assumes that inventories are not very liquid. Cash Ratio is an indicator of liquidity in a crisis situation: This is useful if the company seems to have problems selling inventory and / or collecting receivables. 48 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Defensive Interval Ratio = Cash + Short term Marketable Securities + A/R Daily Cash Expenditures General analytical guidelines: Defensive Interval Ratio is similar to the “burn rate” metric: DIR measures how long (i.e. number of days) a company can pay its daily cash expenditures using only the existing liquid assets, without any additional cash inflow. If DIR is low compared to benchmarks, then determine if there are other sources of cash flow. To estimate cash expenditures: EXCLUDE TAXES + Cost of Goods Sold + Selling, General, and Administrative expense + R&D expense − Non-cash expense: depreciation, amortization, etc. = Estimated TOTAL cash expenditure ÷ Number of days in the period = Estimated DAILY cash expenditure 49 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. DELL, INC. for fiscal year ended: January 28, 2005 January 30, 2004 January 31, 2003 + Days to collect A/R 32 31 28 + Days to sell inventory 4 3 3 − Days to pay A/P (73) (70) (68) = Cash conversion cycle (37) (36) (37) 2004 2003 2002 Comparative data for Cash Conversion Cycle, for fiscal year ended: HP Compaq 27 37 61 Gateway (7) (9) (3) Apple (40) (41) (40) General analytical guidelines: For Dell, Inc.: What does the minimal Days to Sell Inventory say about the company’s business model and inventory system? Dell’s balance sheet indicates Cash and Short-term Investments of $10 billion. When compared with the Days to Pay A/P, what can you say about the company’s REAL ability (and strategy) of paying suppliers? What does a negative Cash Conversion Cycle imply? How would you compare Dell’s liquidty vis-à-vis its peers? 50 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. RATIO CALCULATION WHAT IT MEASURES BETTER IF Debt Asset Ratio Total Debt ÷ Total Assets The proportion of the assets that is funded by interest-bearing debt Lower Debt Capital Ratio Total Debt ÷ (Total Debt + Total Equity) The proportion of interest-bearing debt out of all the total long-term capital sources Lower Debt Equity Ratio Total Debt ÷ Total Equity The proportion of interest-bearing debt vs. owners’ investments Lower Financial Leverage Ratio Total Assets ÷ Total Equity The proportion of liabilities vs. owners’ investments Lower Financial Leverage Ratio Average Total Assets ÷ Average Total Equity The proportion of liabilities vs. owners’ investments Lower General analytical guidelines: Solvency ratios compare the capital structure components in order to measure ability to fulfill long-term obligations: Regular interest payments (see Coverage Ratios) Principal repayment Understanding how the company uses short-term and long-term debt gives insights into the company’s risk and return profile…i.e. it affects the current and future cost of capital, as well as the ability to tap debt and equity financing sources when needed. 51 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Debt Asset Ratio = Total Debt Total Assets Total Debt Debt Capital Ratio = Total Debt + Total Equity Total Debt Debt Equity Ratio = Total Equity General analytical guidelines: Debt acts like a “lever” in growing the company: the owners use lenders’ money to grow the business instead of investing more equity. Total Debt = Interest-bearing Short-term Debt + Interest-bearing Long-term Debt For analytical purposes, do not include non-interest-bearing short-term debt such as accounts payable, salary payable, etc…i.e. focus only on interest-bearing debt. Other possible variants of “Total Debt”: Use interest-bearing and non-interest bearing for both short-term and log-term debt. Use “long-term interest-bearing debt” only. Inconsistencies in the three ratios are worth analyzing further. 52 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Total Assets Financial Leverage Ratio = Total Equity Financial Leverage Ratio = Average Total Assets Average Total Equity General analytical guidelines: “Leverage” magnifies the effects of using fixed costs (i.e. interest expense). It’s a double-edged sword: Earnings become better. Losses become worse. Zero debt: Php 1.00 of Equity will buy Php 1.00 of Assets. The use of debt will enable the company to buy more than Php 1.00 of Assets for every Php 1.00 of equity. Mature companies can operate with a high degree of leverage. The Financial Leverage Ratio will be used in the Du Pont ROE ratio. See examples: Excel file Lehman Brothers 2007 Globe Telecom 2011 53 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. RATIO CALCULATION WHAT IT MEASURES BETTER IF Earnings Interest Coverage EBIT ÷ Interest Expense Sufficiency of earnings to meet interest obligations Higher Cash Flow Interest Coverage OCF BIT ÷ Interest Paid Sufficiency of cash flows to meet interest obligations Higher Debt Coverage Operating CF ÷ Total Liabilities Financial risk and financial leverage Higher Debt Payment Operating CF ÷ Cash paid for longterm debt repayment Ability to pay debt using Operating CF Higher Fixed Charge Coverage (EBIT + Lease Payments) ÷ (Interest Expense + Lease Payments) Sufficiency of earnings to cover fixed payment obligations Higher General analytical guidelines: Coverage ratios measure the sufficiency of earnings or cash flows to cover fixed payment obligations: Keep in mind: Earnings ≠ Cash Flow Coverage ratios can use Income Statement accrual earnings or Statement of Cash Flows EBIT: Earnings Before Interest Expense and Income Tax OCF BIT: Operating Cash Flow Before Interest Paid and Income Tax 54 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Earnings Interest Coverage = EBIT Interest Expense Cash Flow Interest Coverage = OCF BIT Interest Paid General analytical guidelines: Coverage ratios measure the sufficiency of earnings or cash flows to cover fixed payment obligations: Keep in mind: Earnings ≠ Cash Flow Coverage ratios can use Income Statement accrual earnings or Statement of Cash Flows EBIT: Earnings Before Interest Expense and Income Tax OCF BIT: Operating Cash Flow Before Interest Paid and Income Tax Operating CF + Interest Paid + Taxes Paid 55 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. Debt Coverage = Operating CF Total Liabilities Operating CF Debt Payment = Cash Paid for Long−term Debt Repayment EBIT + Lease Payments Fixed Charge Coverage = Interest Payments + Lease Payments General analytical guidelines: Coverage ratios measure the sufficiency of earnings or cash flows to cover fixed payment obligations: Keep in mind: Earnings ≠ Cash Flow Coverage ratios can use Income Statement accrual earnings or Statement of Cash Flows The Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio can be used as an indication of the quality of Preferred Stock cash dividend: The higher the FCC, the more assurance that the P/S cash dividend will be paid. See other examples: Lehman Brothers 2007 SMB SEC Form 17A 2012 56 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com RETURN ON SALES RATIO CALCULATION WHAT IT MEASURES BETTER IF Gross Profit Margin (GPM) Gross Profit ÷ Sales Profitability before deducting any expenses Higher Operating Profit Margin (OPM) Operating Income ÷ Sales Recurring profitability before interest expense and tax Higher Pre-tax Margin (PTM) Earnings Before Tax ÷ Sales Recurring profitability before tax Higher Net Profit Margin (NPM) Net Income ÷ Sales Profitability after deducting all expenses Higher Operating Cost Ratio Marketing & Admin Expenses ÷ Sales Ability to control costs Lower 57 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. RETURN ON SALES Gross Profit Margin = Gross Profit Sales Operating Income Operating Profit Margin = Sales Operating Cost Ratio = Marketing & Administrative Exp Sales General analytical guidelines: GPM indicates the percentage of revenue available to cover all types of expenditures: Gross Profit is affected by a combination of product pricing and product costing. The ability to charge a higher selling price is affected by the degree of competition and competitive advantage. Assess the extent to which product costing is affected by external factors beyond the company’s control. GOOD: If OPM increases faster than GPM, then it indicates improvements in controlling operating expenses. However, watch out for artificial increases in OPM brought about by deliberate cost-cutting measures. Cutting costs in order to increase reported margins is not sustainable. EBIT is the common proxy for Operating Income: Make sure that non-operating items (such as dividend income; gains or losses on investment securities; etc.) are not included in EBIT. 58 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. RETURN ON SALES Earnings Before Tax Pretax Margin = Sales Net Profit Margin = Net Income Sales General analytical guidelines: Assess whether Pre-tax Margin is due to operating or non-operating items: EBT: use Earnings Before Tax After Interest Expense EBT includes the effects of non-operating items, such as dividend income, gains or losses from investment securities, etc. NPM considers all types of recurring and non-recurring revenues and expenses: If there are significant non-recurring items, then it might be better to use “net income adjusted for non-recurring items” in assessing the sustainability 59 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com RETURN ON INVESTMENT RATIO CALCULATION WHAT IT MEASURES BETTER IF Operating Return on Assets (OROA) Operating Income ÷ Average Total Assets Profitability of total assets Higher Return on Assets (ROA) Net Income ÷ Average Total Assets Profitability of total assets Higher Return on Total Capital (ROTC) EBIT ÷ (Average Total Interest-bearing Debt + Average Total Equity) Profitability of capital deployed Higher Return on Equity (ROE) Net Income ÷ Average Total Equity Profitability of the owners’ investments Higher Return on Common Equity (ROCE) (Net Income − Preferred Stock Dividend) ÷ Average Common Equity Profitability of the owners’ investments Higher 60 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com RETURN ON INVESTMENT Operating Income Operating Return on Assets = Average Total Assets Return on Assets = Net Income Average Total Assets General analytical guidelines: The common proxy for Operating Income is EBIT. Income Statement EBIT The Recipient Is: Accounting Equation The Recipient Is: Earnings Before Interest Expense and Tax Lender, Government, and Equity Owner − Interest expense Lender + Equity Residual Equity Owner = EBT Earnings Before Tax Government and Equity Owner = Assets Everyone − Income Tax Government = EAT Net Income Residual Equity Owner Liabilities Lender & Government 61 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. RETURN ON INVESTMENT ROTC = EBIT Average Total Interest Bearing Debt + Average Total Equity Return on Equity = Net Income Average Total Equity Return on Common Equity = Net Income − P/S Dividends Average Common Equity General analytical guidelines: ROTC measures the operating profit generated by all sources of capital: Short-term interest-bearing debt Long-term interest-bearing debt Equity: common stock, preferred stock, retained earnings, minority equity, etc. ROE measures the profits generated by equity capital (common stock, preferred stock, retained earnings, minority equity, etc.) ROCE focuses on Common Stock by removing the effects of Preferred Stock in the numerator and denominator: Numerator: Total net income less Preferred Stock cash dividends Denominator: Total SHE less Preferred Stock (par value and APIC) 62 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. RETURN ON INVESTMENT RATIO CALCULATION WHAT IT MEASURES BETTER IF Du Pont ROE: 3-level breakdown Net Profit Margin x Total Asset Turnover x Financial Leverage Ratio Profitability of the owners’ investments Higher Du Pont ROE: 5-level breakdown Tax Retention Rate x Interest Burden x Operating Profit Margin x Total Asset Turnover x Financial Leverage Ratio Profitability of the owners’ investments Higher General analytical guidelines: Decomposing the ROE can reveal the drivers of ROE. The Du Pont ROE decomposition is actually a combination of several familiar ratios that measure efficiency, operating profitability, taxes, and financial leverage. The decomposed ROE can be used by management to assess which areas of the business need improvement in order to improve overall ROE. Ideal for Manufacturing or Retail Companies 63 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Alternatives: - Average Total Assets - Average Total Equity ROE Net income Equity 3-Level Net income Sales x Sales Assets If Leverage is zero, then ROE = ROA Assets Equity x Profitability/ Efficiency Leverage Cost Control ROE Net income Equity 5-Level Net income EBT Tax Retention Rate x EBT EBIT Interest Burden x EBIT Sales x Sales Assets x Operating Efficiency Assets Equity Leverage Profit Margin 64 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Alternatives: - Average Total Assets - Average Total Equity ROE Net income Equity 3-Level Net income Sales x Sales Assets If Leverage is zero, then ROE = ROA Assets Equity x Profitability/ Efficiency Leverage Cost Control ROE Net income Equity 5-Level Net income EBT Tax Retention Rate x EBT EBIT Interest Burden x EBIT Sales x Sales Assets x Operating Efficiency Assets Equity Leverage Profit Margin See Excel for example 65 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com ROE = ROE = OPM ∗ TATO − Borrowing Cost ∗ Financial Leverage ∗ 1 − tax rate EBIT Sales Interest Expense ∗ − Sales Total Assets Total Assets ROE = EBIT − Interest Expense Total Assets ∗ ∗ Total Assets ∗ 1 − tax rate Book Equity Total Assets ∗ 1 − tax rate Book Equity General analytical guidelines: OPM: Operating Profit Margin using EBIT TATO: Total Asset Turnover Borrowing Cost: Interest Expense ÷ Total Assets This is a measure of financial stress (though not a commonly used version). Financial Leverage: If the ratio is high, then liabilities are high. Tax: This captures the effective tax rate. 66 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com PERFORMANCE RATIOS RATIO CALCULATION WHAT IT MEASURES BETTER IF Cash Flow to Revenue Operating CF ÷ Revenue Quality of earnings: cash generated per Peso of revenue Higher Cash ROA Operating CF ÷ Average Total Assets Cash generated from all assets Higher Cash ROE Operating CF ÷ Average Total Equity Cash generated from owners’ investments Higher Cash to Income Operating CF ÷ Operating Income from Income Statement Quality of earnings: cash generating ability of operations Higher Cash Flow Per Share (Operating CF − Preferred Stock Dividends) ÷ Weighted Average Number of C/S Outstanding Operating CF on a per share basis Higher 67 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com CF to Revenue = Operating CF Net Revenue Operating CF Cash ROA = Average Total Assets Operating CF Cash ROE = Average SHE Operating CF Cash to Income = Operating Income in Income Statement Cash Flow Per Share = Operating CF − P/S Dividends Weighted Average Number of C/S Outstanding 68 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Source: Robinson, Greuning, Henry, and Broihahn (2009). International Financial Statement Analysis. John Wiley & Sons. COVERAGE RATIOS RATIO CALCULATION WHAT IT MEASURES BETTER IF Debt Coverage Operating CF ÷ Total Debt Financial risk and financial leverage Higher Cash Flow Interest Coverage OCF BIT ÷ Interest Paid Sufficiency of cash flows to meet interest obligations Higher Reinvestment Operating CF ÷ Cash paid for long-term assets Ability to acquire assets using Operating CF Higher Debt Payment Operating CF ÷ Cash paid for long-term debt repayment Ability to pay debt using Operating CF Higher Cash Dividend Payment Operating CF ÷ Cash paid for dividends Ability to pay cash dividends using Operating CF Higher Investing and Financing Operating CF ÷ (Investing Cash Outflow + Financing Cash Outflow) Ability to acquire assets, pay debts, and make distributions to owners Higher General analytical guidelines: OCF BIT: Operating Cash Flow Before Interest Paid and Income Tax Operating CF + Interest Paid + Taxes Paid 69 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Debt Coverage = Operating CF Total Liabilities Cash Flow Interest Coverage = OCF BIT Interest Paid Operating CF Reinvestment = Cash Paid for Long−term Assets 70 © 2013 www.thefundamentalinvestor.com Debt Payment = Operating CF Cash Paid for Long−term Debt Repayment Operating CF Cash Dividend Payment = Cash Dividends Paid Operating CF Investing and Financing = Investing Cash Out + Financing Cash Out 71