Recent Major Earthquakes
• Oct. 7, 2005: Pakistan, India and Afghanistan,
magnitude 7.6; more than 18,000 killed
• Dec. 26, 2004: Indian Ocean, magnitude 9; more
than 174,000 people killed, another 106,000
missing
• Dec. 26, 2003: Southeastern Iran, Bam,
magnitude 6.5; more than 26,000 killed
• May 21, 2003: Northern Algeria, magnitude 6.8;
nearly 2,300 killed
Map showing highest risk of
earthquake activity.
Earthquake Detecting Devise in
Ancient China in 132 AD
张衡
Zhang, Heng
78-139 AD
The earliest
Seismometer
地动仪
Modern Seismometer
• Modern seismometer
also utilize the seismic
-wave and ground
motion to detect earth
-quake
• Earliest designs of Western seismometers used
the similar principles as Chinese design (the
mass-frame contrast design)
• Now, the detections are done electronically
Prediction of Earthquakes
• Unfortunately, we do not have a reliable
way to make short term prediction yet;
One of the well known success of
earthquake prediction happened in China,
HaiCheng Earthquake (1975)
• One of the most disastrous earthquake in
last century also happened in China,
TangShan Earthquake (1976)
海城 （1975）
HaiCheng Earthquake
Richter 7.3
2000 deaths
唐山(1976)
TangShan
Earthquake,
Richter 7.8
242,400 deaths
Why such Huge Difference?
• HaiCheng earthquake had various forewarnings
in the preceding months:
1) Change in the land elevation and in the
ground water level
2) Wildspread reports of peculiar animal
behaviors
3) Increasing foreshock activities
• The prediction in HaiCheng was made just 1 day
in advance
• No forewarnings for TangShan earthquake
Modify Vulnerability
• Prediction and Warning
Common Prediction Methods
•
•
•
•
•
Animal behavior
Seismic electrical signal measurements
Earthquake “nucleation” phase detection
Geochemical measurements
Statistical analysis of seismicity
Animal Behaviour
• Research suggests
that some animals,
such as fish, can
sense earthquake
before hand
Modify the Event
• Hazard Resistant Design
LEDC Low cost aseismic design
MEDC aseismic design
Current GeoHazards
International projects bring
earthquake safety and
awareness to India and Central
Asia
INDIA
• GeoHazards International (GHI) is working
in India with support from the U.S. Agency
for International Development (USAID) to
reduce earthquake risk in several cities
there.
• Shimla is located along a ridge in the
northwestern Himalayas. Its precarious
location in an earthquake-prone region,
combined with weak construction techniques
and a rapidly growing population, put Shimla at
serious risk of earthquake disaster.
• Buildings and roads in Shimla have been
constructed on slopes as steep as 7080%.
• New construction is underway . . . . . but old
problems continue.
• Shimla’s population has grown from 770 in 1901 to over
700,000 in 2001.
• New construction for the ever-increasing population
exhibits the same structural problems as existing weak
buildings.
The Shimla community will draft an earthquake risk mitigation
plan with help from GHI.
• mobile simulation room to raise citizen
awareness and encourage both structural and
non-structural mitigation for earthquake safety.
Community Preparedness
• Management of
emergency services
GIS Can Merge Satellite and Aırcraft/Ground
 Aır or ground Imagery With Other Data
A
platform imagery
can show damage,
but data must be
placed into a format
useful to emergency
responders, e.g.,
 Precisely locate
damage to buildings,
roads, bridges
 Street signs and
landmarks may be
destroyed
 Searched
buildings can be
logged to prevent
wasted effort
ı
r
c
r
a
Open roads
Damaged
buildings
Blocked roads
Searched
buildings
f
t
/
G
r
o
u
n
d
GPS can be used to locate and
direct emergency response assets
 Emergency vehicles
can be tracked
 Blocked roads or
impassible bridges
can be avoided
 Fewer lost or
misdirected search
and rescue teams
Tracked
emergency
vehicles
Robo Rat
Awareness of the public
Modify the Loss
• Aid
• Insurance