Geosciences and the future of
Planet Earth – a hydrological
perspective
Kate Heal
School of GeoSciences
The University of Edinburgh
k.heal@ed.ac.uk
Water is essential for life
•
Water and health
–
•
Water and food
–
•
70% available water used for irrigation
Water as a hazard
–
•
1.8 million deaths annually from diarrhoeal disease, mainly <5 years
15% of deaths in natural disasters in floods
Water and energy
–
–
19% of electricity produced by hydropower
Hydropower development could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 13%
• Increasing pressures on water resources
Therefore it should be easy for hydrologists to
contribute to service of mankind…
www.dunalastair.co.uk/images/700/Pitlochry-Dam.jpg
Why we need hydrologists
• Estimate surface and groundwater availability
• Predict effects of land use and climate changes on water
quantity and quality
• Assess water requirements of ecosystem services
• Estimate frequency of occurrence and magnitude of
floods and droughts
But science required to address these questions
• Measurement of hydrological processes and
influences on them
• Integrating data and models at different scales
• Development of novel technologies and techniques
in measurement and modelling
Images: S. Hubbard
So why do we not hear much about hydrologists?
• Society does not know what hydrology is
• Hydrologists do not know what hydrology is
• Intersection of “Hydrology” and “Water
Resource Management”
• Hydrology rarely a separate subject at
school or university
– Embedded within Engineering, Geography,
Forestry
• Water is often politicised
– Human right to safe water and sanitation (UN
General Assembly July 2010)
– UN Convention on the Law of the Nonnavigational Uses of Shared Watercourses (1997)
still not ratified
Multi-disciplinary nature of hydrology
(Acknowledgment:
Harouna Karambiri)
The international water scene is flooded …
• Many different actors with
different aims
– UNESCO
• World Water Assessment Programme
• International Hydrology Programme
– World Water Council
– International Water Association
– IAHS
• Many different venues
– World Water Forum
– Stockholm World Water Week
– Singapore International Water Week
What should be the role of IUGG and IAHS?
• Emphasise science and
scientists
• Emphasise multidisciplinarity and interaction
between associations
• Emphasise internationalism
(cf. AGU), especially
potential to engage with
developing country scientists
What IAHS is doing: PUB
•
•
•
•
•
Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) decade 2003-2012
www.iahs-pub.org
Primary aim of reducing uncertainty in hydrological predictions
Grass-roots movement, has evolved over time
Structure
– 4 biennia: initiation, growth, taking stock, consolidation
– 8 science themes and working groups have developed which span 2 or
more themes
– Science Steering Committee includes Theme leaders and young
hydrologists
• Will produce Benchmark Report “Runoff prediction in ungauged
basins” to address the science question: How and how well can we
estimate runoff characteristics in the absence of at-site runoff data?
What IAHS is doing: PUC
• Next decade…Predictions under
Change (PUC): Water, Earth and
Biota in the Anthropocene
research agenda (Murugesu
Sivapalan)
– See Wagener et al. (2010) WRR 46,
W05301
• Future research agenda
– Humans part of the hydrologic
system
Sivapalan (Ed.) Predictions under Change: Water, Earth
and Biota in the Anthropocene, Draft, 18 April 2011
Application of the new framework to propose research to predict
hydrological responses to watershed disturbance
Sivapalan (Ed.) Predictions under Change: Water, Earth and Biota in the Anthropocene, Draft, 18 April 2011
Enhancing the role of IUGG and IAHS
• Lobby for funding for Geosciences
research and training
• Encourage multi-disciplinarity and
interaction between Associations
• Increase accessibility of meetings
and scientists to policy makers
and the public
– “Solutions from Students” Poster
competition at IUGG 2011
– EGU outreach programme
• Encourage young scientists
– Already funding towards meeting
participation
– Masterclasses and mentoring (e.g.
EGU, ICGW)
Challenges to the IUGG and IAHS in realising
service to mankind
• Communication of uncertainty to society and policy
makers
• Different time-scales of policy making and science
(short-term and reactive vs. long-term)
• Scientific career progression metrics do not
incentivise engagement – though changing
• More training in science communication
• Funding for outreach, communication and marketing
– No fee for IAHS
• Strength: distinctive feature, accessibility
• Weakness: limits resources for activities
Need to understand policy makers (Quinn et al., 2004)
Hydrologist
Land-water planner
School of
thought
IAHS, AGU, EGU
J. Hydrol., Water Resour.
Res., Hydrol. Processes
IWA, AWWA
Water Research, J. Water
Policy, J. Water Resources
Development
Training
Specialist training,
hydrological theory,
modelling, GIS
In situ problem solving and
management
Key skills
Advanced modelling,
Regulatory and legislative
telemetry, GPS, GIS, remote understanding, knowledge of
sensing, DSS
local problems
Contribution
to river basin
management
Constantly building models
and acquiring data of little
use to the land use planner
Asking poorly posed questions;
refusal to accept “we do not
know exactly” as a true answer
How to increase interaction between
scientists and policy makers
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Demonstrate gains from policy based on good science
Emphasise financial aspects
Understand policy making processes
More effective communication
Policy maker involvement in research
Demonstration sites
Training and capacity building
Develop appropriate communication tools
Physically-based
Models (EPIC)
scale and
uncertainty
Catchment Scale Meta Models
(MIR), GIS - produce risk
indicators
change in
local land use
Research
Catchment
inform
decision
making
Decision
Support
Tools
(DSM)
Stakeholder
Workshops
informing
end users
Education Tools
(TopManage)
best farming
practice
Monitoring site: flow + water quality
Catchment Scale
Strategic Planning use risk indicators
(Quinn et al., 2004)
‘political will’
message +
the mandate
Translate scientific knowledge into risk
assessment matrices
Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix for a field/fields (Hewett et al., 2004)
Risk loss assessment for P loading an
Q1
Q2
Q3
Fertiliser
application
and soil
management
Q4
Q5
An
ze
low
hig
Flow connectivity
Low-medium risk
High risk
Darker shading
indicates high risk
Conclusions
• IUGG and IAHS
– Need to demonstrate IMPACT of
Geosciences to policy makers
– Lobbying for funding for Geosciences
measurement, research and training
– More public and policy maker
engagement
• Grass-roots scientific initiatives
important
• Individual responsibility of
scientists
– Engage with policy makers/society
wherever possible
– Make research results more
accessible
And finally…
(Acknowledgment: Harouna Karambiri)