Economic Outlook: National and Regional Perspectives

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National Economic Indicators
Ray Owens
May 20, 2014
Real Gross Domestic Product
6
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
Q1
0.1%
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
-6
-6
-7
-7
-8
-8
-9
-9
-10
-10
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 2
Real Gross Domestic Product
2013
Change from previous quarter at compound annual rate, %
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014
Q1
Gross Domestic Product
1.1
2.5
4.1
2.6
0.1
2.3
1.8
2.0
3.3
3.0
-4.6
-25.7
1.6
3.7
4.7
17.6
3.3
-1.5
4.8
13.4
0.2
5.8
5.7
-1.8
10.9
4.0
-2.1
0.2
-5.5
1.5
Residential Fixed Investment
12.5
14.2
10.3
-7.9
-5.7
Exports of Goods & Services
Imports of Goods & Services
-1.3
0.6
8.0
6.9
3.9
2.4
9.5
1.5
-7.6
-1.4
Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross
Investment
-4.2
-0.4
0.4
-5.2
-0.5
0.5
2.1
2.3
1.6
1.5
42.2
56.6
115.7
111.7
87.4
-422.3
-424.4
-419.8
-382.8
-414.4
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Structures
Equipment
Intellectual Property Products
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
Billions of chained (2009) dollars
Change in Private Inventories
Net Exports of Goods & Services
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 3
Personal Saving Rate
9
Percent of disposable personal income
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
March
3.8%
4
3
3
2
2
1
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1
2015
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 4
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
144
Millions of Persons
144
142
142
140
140
April
138.3 mil.
138
138
136
136
134
134
132
132
130
130
128
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
128
2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
5
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
400
Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons
400
Apr.
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
-100
-100
-200
-200
-300
-300
Monthly Change
Apr.
288
Mar.
203
Feb.
222
Jan.
144
Dec.
84
-400
-500
-600
-400
-500
-600
-700
-700
-800
-800
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
6
Civilian Unemployment Rate
11
Percent
11
10.5
10.5
10
10
9.5
9.5
9
9
8.5
8.5
8
8
7.5
7.5
FOMC Forecast
7
April
6.3%
6.5
6.5
6
6
5.5
5.5
5
5
4.5
4
2007
7
4.5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
4
2017
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the March 19, 2014 meeting.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
7
Civilian Labor Force Ratios
68
Percent of Population
68
67
67
66
66
65
65
Labor Force
64
64
63
63
62
62
April
61
61
60
60
Employed
59
59
58
58
57
1978
57
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
8
Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business
6
Year over Year % Change
Quarterly Change
at Annual Rate
Q1 14 -1.7%
Q4 13
2.3%
Q3 13
3.5%
Q2 13
1.8%
5
6
5
4
4
3
3
Post-War Average
2
Q1
1.4%
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-2
2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics
9
Disposable Personal Income & Expenditures
6 12 Month % Change
6
5
5
4
4
March
3
3
2
2
1
1
Real Disposable Personal
Income
0
-1
0
-1
Month over Month % Change
-2
Income
Expenditures
-3
Real Personal
Consumption Expenditure
-4
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
January
0.3
0.1
2013
February
0.3
0.4
2014
-2
March
0.3
0.7
-3
-4
2015
*Adjusted to remove tax-induced income shifting near end of 2012.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 10
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
5.5
Millions of Homes
5.5
5
5
4.5
4.5
March
4.0 mil.
4
4
Average Annual Existing Home Sales:
1990 through 1999
3.5
3
2.5
2007
3.5
3
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2.5
2015
Source: National Association of Realtors via Haver Analytics11
New Single-Family Home Sales
1.0 Millions of Homes
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
Average Annual New Home Sales:1990 through 1999
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
March
0.38 mil.
0.3
0.2
2007
0.4
0.3
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0.2
2015
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 12
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
20
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
Q1
-2.1%
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics 13
Balance of International Trade
-20
Current $, Billions
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
March
-$40.4 bil.
-35
-35
-40
-40
-45
-45
-50
-50
Six-Month Moving Average
-55
-55
-60
-60
-65
-65
-70
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-70
2015
Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics 14
Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index
5
12 Month % Change
5
4.5
4.5
4
4
3.5
3.5
3
3
FOMC Forecast
2.5
2
2% Longer-run Target
1.5
March
1.1%
2
1.5
1
1
0.5
0.5
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-1
-1.5
2007
2.5
-1
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-1.5
2017
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the March 19, 2014 meeting.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 15
TIPS Inflation Compensation
4
Percent
3.5
4
3.5
5-Year
5 Years Ahead
3
3
May 2nd
2.5
2.5
2
1.5
2
5-Year
1.5
1
1
0.5
0.5
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-1
-1.5
2009
-1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-1.5
2015
Source: Board of Governors Research Series via Haver Analytics 16
Monetary Policy Instruments
7
Percent
7
6.5
6.5
6
6
5.5
5.5
5
5
4.5
4.5
4
4
3.5
3
3.5
Federal Funds Target Rate
3
2.5
2.5
2
2
1.5
1.5
Primary Credit Rate
1
0.5
0
2005
May 9th
Interest Rate Paid on
Reserves
Federal Funds Rate
Target Range
2006
2007
2008
1
0.5
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
2015
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
17
Federal Reserve System Assets
4500
$, Billions
Total: $4,342
4250
Miscellaneous: $314
Agency
Debt: $45
4000
3750
3500
3250
Agency MBS: $1,632
3000
Total: $2,865
2750
Miscellaneous: $282
2500
Agency
Debt: $87
2250
Agency MBS: $844
2000
Treasury Securities:
2352
$2,352
1750
1500
Treasury Securities:
$1,652
1652
1250
9/12/2012
5/7/2014
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
18
Treasury Yield Curve
3.5
Percent
3.5
3.25
3.25
3
3
June 20, 2013
2.75
2.75
May 9, 2014
2.5
2.5
2.25
2.25
2
2
1.75
1.75
1.5
1.5
1.25
1.25
1
1
0.75
0.75
0.5
0.5
0.25
0.25
0
0
6M
2 Yrs 3 Yrs
5 Yrs
7 Yrs
10 Yrs
Time to Maturity
Source: Board of Governors via Haver Analytics
19
Capital Market Rates
10.5
Percent
10.5
9.5
8.5
9.5
Corporate BBB
Bond Rate
8.5
7.5
7.5
30 Year
Conventional
Mortgage Rate
6.5
6.5
5.5
5.5
May 9th
4.5
4.5
3.5
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
2009
2.5
10-Yr. Treasury
Bond Rate
1.5
Corporate AAA
Bond Rate
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0.5
2015
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics 20
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