Milk Market Situation Brussels, 23 February 2012 1 EU-27 Deliveries/Production developments (Apr-Dec 2011 compared to Apr-Dec 2010) EU-27 Deliveries/Productions development (Jan-Dec 2011 compared to Jan-Dec 2010) EU Productions Cows' Milk Collected + 2.1% Cows' Milk Collected + 1.8% Fermented milk + 0.2% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder - 3.8% Cheese + 0.3% Evolution en % Evolution en % . Fermented milk - 0.1% Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed milk powder - 7.1% Skimmed-milk powder + 12.6% Cheese + 0.0% Skimmed-milk powder + 11.5% Total Butter + 2.2% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% Total Butter + 2.4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% -13% -11% -9% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% CY only up to November CY only up to November !!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!! Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat 23 February 2012 2 -1.5 +0.4 -0.3 +5.8 -0.6 -8.0% to -6.0% -6.0% to -4.0% -4.0% to -2.0% -2.0% to +0.0% +0.0% to +2.0% +2.0% to +4.0% +4.0% to +6.0% +6.0% to +8.0% +3.1 +3.9 +1.6 +3.4 0 +1.3 +2.4 -0.3 +2.1 +1.4 +4.4 +1.2 +5.5 -2.1 -1.0 -1.4 -7.5 +0.7 +2.0 -7.2 0 +0.8 23 February 2012 Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat 3 -2.0 -1.6 -0.4 +5.3 -0.3 -10.0% to -7.5% -7.5% to -5.0% -5.0% to -2.5% -2.5% to +0.0% +0.0% to +2.5% +2.5% to +5.0% +5.0% to +7.5% +7.5% to +10.0% +2.1 +1.8 +0.7 +3.6 0 +0.7 +2.2 -0.1 +2.7 +2.6 +4.6 +1.1 +5.1 -0.7 +1.6 -1.3 -7.8 +0.8 +1.8 -8.0 0 23 February 2012 +1.0 Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat 4 Monthly Deliveries EU 27 13 000 12 500 1000 tonnes 12 000 11 500 11 000 10 500 10 000 Jan Feb Mar 2008 23 February 2012 Apr May 2009 Jun Jul 2010 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat 5 23 February 2012 Dec 11 Nov 11 Oct 11 Sep 11 Aug 11 Jul 11 Jun 11 May 11 Apr 11 Mar 11 Feb 11 Jan 11 Dec 10 Nov 10 Oct 10 Sep 10 Aug 10 1 506 1 451 1 555 1 579 1 663 1 673 1 624 1 643 1 488 1 491 1 314 1 438 1 405 1 355 1 477 1 534 1 620 1 632 1 634 1 651 1 510 1 477 1 292 21.55 9 711 9 201 9 545 9 458 9 953 10 341 10 367 25.06 Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-12) 18 000 Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-15) Weighted average Milk price (EU-12) 16 000 14 000 10 0 12 000 10 000 Productions in 1 000 Tons 30.37 30.44 30.14 29.60 30.04 30.48 30.45 30.93 31.11 30.96 30.77 30.44 30.09 30.12 28.82 35.42 35.90 35.71 35.63 35.10 34.85 34.35 33.67 33.32 33.68 33.73 33.64 33.74 33.81 33.50 33.38 32.53 31.33 30.25 29.15 28.41 28.32 28.98 29.40 28.81 29.03 27.57 26.98 26.32 25.51 25.18 28.25 29.52 27.33 24.95 26.84 25.99 25.87 26.00 26.60 26.68 26.39 26.05 25.56 24.84 22.89 22.10 21.67 Weighted average Milk price (EU-15) 11 026 10 678 10 526 9 194 9 833 9 458 9 146 9 559 9 363 9 786 10 049 10 288 10 920 10 319 10 207 8 943 9 528 9 314 8 816 9 125 8 869 9 466 10 05720.52 9 842 20.99 10 210 21.06 10 355 21.12 10 69620.93 9 035 30.33 35 Jul 10 Jun 10 May 10 Apr 10 Mar 10 Feb 10 Jan 10 1 404 1 402 1 343 1 464 1 536 1 656 1 679 1 685 1 713 1 543 1 541 23.36 25 Dec 09 Nov 09 Oct 09 Sep 09 Aug 09 Jul 09 Jun 09 May 09 Apr 09 Mar 09 Feb 09 5 9 662 30 1 380 15 1 492 20 Jan 09 Prices in EUR/100 kg EU 15/12 Milk Deliveries and Prices 28 000 26 000 24 000 22 000 20 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 - Source : Eurostat, Reg. (EC) No 429/2010 Art. 3 6 Milk Prices Evolution (up to December 2011) EUR/100 kg 50 48 LTO Weighted Average Milk Price * (standardized 4.2% fat) Weighted EU Average (real fat content) 46 EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices) 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 Oct 11 Apr 11 Oct 10 Apr 10 Oct 09 Apr 09 Oct 08 Apr 08 Oct 07 Apr 07 Oct 06 Apr 06 Oct 05 Apr 05 Oct 04 Apr 04 Oct 03 Apr 03 Oct 02 Apr 02 Oct 01 Apr 01 20 LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http://www.milkprices.nl/) Sources : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010, LTO website 23 February 2012 7 EU Milk Prices (December 2011 compared to December 2010) 53.7 Milk Price 2010 50 46.6 45.2 46 39.1 42 37.7 37.6 37.5 36.5 36.4 35.7 34.7 34.5 33.9 33.7 33.7 38 32.8 32.7 32.4 32.2 32.2 32.0 32.0 34 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 28.7 30 in EUR/100 kg 47.4 54 Milk Price 2011 26 22 18 14 CY EL MT FI IT AT SE NL DK IE DE EU LU BG UK BE ES SI 27 PT FR SK EE CZ LV LT HU RO PL Estimates for BG and CZ NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010 Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010 23 February 2012 8 EU annual Milk Prices (2011 compared to 2010) 54 52.1 Average milk price 2010 47.4 50 Average milk price 2011 46 43.0 . 43.2 36.9 35.7 35.4 34.8 34.4 34.0 33.3 33.1 32.8 32.7 32.7 32.3 31.6 31.3 31.3 30.8 30.6 30.5 38 34 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.2 30 in EUR/100 kg 42 38.5 37.9 26 22 18 14 CY MT EL FI IT SE NL DK AT DE IE EU FR BE LU CZ BG EE SK ES PT HU UK SI PL LV LT RO 27 NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010 Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010 23 February 2012 9 EU 27 BUTTER+BUTTEROIL Production 190 180 1000 tonnes 170 160 150 140 130 Data for DK missing 120 Jan Feb Mar Apr 2008 23 February 2012 May Jun 2009 Jul Aug 2010 Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Sources : EUROSTAT Newcronos 10 EU 27 SMP Production 120 110 1000 tonnes 100 90 80 70 60 50 Data for DK missing 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr 2008 23 February 2012 May Jun 2009 Jul Aug 2010 Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Sources : EUROSTAT Newcronos 11 EU 25/EU 27 WMP Production 75 70 65 1000 tonnes 60 55 50 45 40 35 Data for DK missing 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr 2008 23 February 2012 May Jun 2009 Jul Aug 2010 Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 12 EU 27 CHEESES Production 740 720 1000 tonnes 700 680 660 640 620 Data for DK missing 600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2008 23 February 2012 Jun Jul 2009 Aug Sep 2010 Oct Nov Dec 2011 Sources : EUROSTAT Newcronos 13 Monthly EU SMP Prices 425 400 350 325 300 275 250 EUR/100 kg 375 225 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 175 150 IP 2009 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 23 February 2012 14 EU SMP Prices (up to 19/02/2012) 300 249 233 232 231 230 229 228 226 226 250 218 150 100 in EUR/100 kg 200 50 0 UK CZ BE SK LV EU 27 DE PL FR IE Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010 23 February 2012 15 Monthly EU BUTTER Prices 425 400 350 325 300 275 250 EUR/100 kg 375 225 200 175 2009 2010 2011 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 150 2012 IP 2009 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 23 February 2012 16 EU Butter Prices (up to 19.02.2012) 500 Butter Price of Reg. 479/2010 475 Butter Intervention price 450 425 385 400 354 375 351 337 335 335 329 328 327 327 350 317 325 300 EUR/100 kg 395 275 250 I.P. = 221.75 225 200 175 150 SK LV GB CZ PT EU 27 BE IE DE ES NL PL Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010 23 February 2012 17 EU Quotations of Butter and SMP (EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production) 440 420 BUTTER SMP 400 . 380 360 in EUR/100 kg 340 334.8 320 300 280 260 240 228.6 220 200 180 Jan 12 Jul 11 Oct 11 Apr 11 Jan 11 Oct 10 Jul 10 Apr 10 Jan 10 Oct 09 Jul 09 Apr 09 Jan 09 Jul 08 Oct 08 Apr 08 Jan 08 Oct 07 Jul 07 Apr 07 Jan 07 Oct 06 Jul 06 Apr 06 Jan 06 Oct 05 Jul 05 Apr 05 Jan 05 Jul 04 Oct 04 Apr 04 Jan 04 Oct 03 Jul 03 Apr 03 140 Jan 03 160 Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010 23 February 2012 18 Monthly EU WMP Prices 2009 23 February 2012 2010 2011 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 410 390 370 350 330 310 290 270 250 230 210 190 170 150 2012 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 19 Monthly EU EDAM Prices Monthly EU CHEDDAR Prices 420 420 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 400 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 2009 2010 2011 2012 2011 2009 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 180 Jan 220 200 2010 2012 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 23 February 2012 20 Monthly EU WheyPowder Prices 120 100 80 60 40 20 2011 2009 2010 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 0 2012 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 23 February 2012 21 23 February 2012 Jan 12 Nov 11 Sep 11 Jul 11 May 11 Mar 11 Jan 11 Nov 10 Sep 10 Jul 10 May 10 Mar 10 Jan 10 Nov 09 Sep 09 Jul 09 May 09 Mar 09 Jan 09 Nov 08 Sep 08 Jul 08 May 08 Mar 08 Jan 08 Nov 07 Sep 07 Jul 07 May 07 Mar 07 WMP/Butter 400 350 300 250 Source: Reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010 EUR for 1000 kg of Milk EU Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter in EUR 550 Cheese/Butter/Whey SMP/Butter 500 450 200 150 22 23 February 2012 Jan 12 Nov 11 Sep 11 Jul 11 May 11 Mar 11 Jan 11 Nov 10 Sep 10 Jul 10 May 10 Mar 10 Jan 10 Nov 09 Sep 09 Jul 09 May 09 Mar 09 Jan 09 Nov 08 Sep 08 Jul 08 May 08 Mar 08 Jan 08 Nov 07 Sep 07 Jul 07 May 07 Mar 07 Cheese/Butter/Whey WMP/Butter 500 450 400 350 300 Source: USDA USD for 1000 kg of Milk WORLD Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter (in USD). 650 600 SMP/Butter 550 250 200 150 23 USD/EUR 1.3230 Source: European Central Bank 23 February 2012 24 EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter 6 000 Avg Oceania Butter quotation 5 500 Avg EU Butter internal Price Avg US Butter quotation Prices in USD/tonne 5 000 4 500 4 410 4 000 3 900 3 500 3 090 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 Feb 12 Nov 11 Aug 11 May 11 Feb 11 Nov 10 Aug 10 Feb 10 May 10 Nov 09 Aug 09 Feb 09 May 09 Nov 08 Aug 08 Feb 08 May 08 Nov 07 Aug 07 Feb 07 May 07 Nov 06 Aug 06 May 06 Feb 06 Nov 05 Aug 05 May 05 Feb 05 Nov 04 1 000 Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news 23 February 2012 25 EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP 5 500 Avg Oceania SMP quotation 5 000 Avg EU SMP internal Price 4 500 Avg US SMP quotation Prices in USD/tonne 4 000 3 500 3 350 3 010 3 000 2 860 2 500 2 000 1 500 Feb 12 Nov 11 Aug 11 May 11 Feb 11 Nov 10 Aug 10 May 10 Feb 10 Nov 09 Aug 09 May 09 Feb 09 Nov 08 Aug 08 Feb 08 May 08 Nov 07 Aug 07 Feb 07 May 07 Nov 06 Aug 06 May 06 Feb 06 Nov 05 Aug 05 May 05 Feb 05 Nov 04 1 000 Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news 23 February 2012 26 EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP 6 000 Avg Oceania WMP quotation 5 500 Avg EU WMP internal Price 5 000 Avg US WMP quotation Prices in USD/tonne 4 500 4 000 3 730 3 500 3 730 3 550 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 Feb 12 Nov 11 Aug 11 May 11 Feb 11 Nov 10 Aug 10 May 10 Feb 10 Nov 09 Aug 09 May 09 Feb 09 Nov 08 Aug 08 Feb 08 May 08 Nov 07 Aug 07 Feb 07 May 07 Nov 06 Aug 06 May 06 Feb 06 Nov 05 Aug 05 May 05 Feb 05 Nov 04 1 000 Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news 23 February 2012 27 EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar 6 000 Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation 5 500 Avg EU Cheddar internal Price Avg US Cheddar quotation 5 000 4 430 Prices in USD/tonne 4 500 4 138 4 000 3 500 3 270 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 Feb 12 Nov 11 Aug 11 May 11 Feb 11 Nov 10 Aug 10 Feb 10 May 10 Nov 09 Aug 09 Feb 09 May 09 Nov 08 Aug 08 Feb 08 May 08 Nov 07 Aug 07 Feb 07 May 07 Nov 06 Aug 06 May 06 Feb 06 Nov 05 Aug 05 May 05 Feb 05 Nov 04 1 000 Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news 23 February 2012 28 BUTTER Exports EU-27 (Jan - Dec) New Zealand (Jan-Dec ) Australia (Jan-Dec ) United States (Jan-Dec ) 300 000 255 188 245 393 250 000 200 000 126 236 150 000 94 735 100 000 36 226 45 489 52 496 23 592 50 000 0 2010 23 February 2012 2011 29 EU-27 (Jan - Dec) New Zealand (Jan-Dec ) Australia (Jan-Dec ) United States (Jan-Dec ) BUTTEROIL Exports 180 000 155 446 160 000 147 134 140 000 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 26 782 17 767 27 278 11 400 15 041 40 000 10 514 20 000 0 2010 23 February 2012 2011 30 EU-27 (Jan - Dec) New Zealand (Jan-Dec ) Australia (Jan-Dec ) United States (Jan-Dec ) SMP Exports 517 812 550 000 436 233 378 838 383 933 343 371 450 000 361 602 350 000 250 000 132 008 140 358 150 000 50 000 2010 23 February 2012 2011 -50 000 31 WMP Exports EU-27 (Jan - Dec) New Zealand (Jan-Dec ) Australia (Jan-Dec ) United States (Jan-Dec ) 1 110 408 1 200 000 1 000 000 948 700 800 000 600 000 447 173 389 767 400 000 114 540 52 746 116 241 200 000 21 835 0 2010 23 February 2012 2011 32 EU-27 (Jan - Dec) New Zealand (Jan-Dec ) Australia (Jan-Dec ) United States (Jan-Dec ) CHEESES Exports 682 148 676 086 700 000 . 600 000 . 175 143 167 669 253 142 . 159 910 264 819 . 500 000 400 000 225 933 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 2010 23 February 2012 2011 33 BUTTER exports BUTTER exports 1000 tonnes EU Exports (1/2) 1000 Tonnes 14 250 12 2010 200 8 150 100 10 212 215 194 6 164 118 50 119 2011 126 4 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 jan SMP exports feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov SMP exports 1000 tonnes 1000 Tonnes 60 400 50 2011 300 40 2010 200 30 379 254 100 203 194 179 20 231 89 0 0 dec 2004 2005 2006 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 jan 23 February 2012 feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov 0 dec 34 WMP exports WMP exports 1000 tonnes EU Exports (2/2) 1000 Tonnes 50 45 600 500 2010 2011 400 300 512 30 438 485 463 367 20 445 15 100 10 5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 jan CHEESE exports feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov 80 700 2010 600 70 60 2011 500 400 552 546 584 596 555 578 50 40 676 30 200 20 100 0 0 dec CHEESE exports 1000 tonnes 1000 Tonnes 300 35 25 493 200 0 40 10 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 jan 23 February 2012 feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov 0 dec 35 EU-27 Dairy EXPORTS in 2011 in TONNES EXTRA EU27 Russia Algeria China USA Saudi Arabia Nigeria Indonesia U.A.Emirates Egypt Japan Switzerland Malaysia Thailand South Korea Singapore Oman 23 February 2012 88 614 22 431 517 443 20 316 4 190 1 016 2 205 1 279 280 26 099 2 592 32 180 2 333 1 654 389 741 678 048 17 606 2 498 120 515 57 261 CASEINES WHEYPOWDER CONDENSED CHEESES WMP SMP BUTTER BUTTEROIL Source : EUROSTAT (COMEXT) 239 116 450 270 62 558 206 246 253 25 506 406 15 681 1 689 1 867 1 147 5 918 2 648 2 254 139 197 3 113 583 108 169 378 160 17 829 13 905 17 514 17 510 45 322 3 026 858 24 003 395 1 440 26 362 48 047 449 2 143 1 182 32 228 5 476 721 1 181 144 58 644 1 243 2 219 358 8 368 11 017 10 471 42 847 1 880 13 1 365 894 33 906 12 860 11 170 971 9 033 1 131 3 098 351 4 172 9 43 904 272 10 275 2 211 249 54 107 491 48 883 375 5 327 622 219 452 14 231 335 1 145 187 37 230 178 280 661 14 892 713 1 788 184 28 999 2 498 488 20 21 721 1 504 11 398 81 9 927 1 800 7 266 188 13 996 8 197 2 235 479 13 946 308 234 128 27 39 973 513 5 148 25 36 EU-27 Dairy IMPORTS in 2011 in TONNES CASEINES 602 411 271 72 348 50 3 883 7 697 9 1 12 19 49 949 1 1 490 9 29 348 550 49 16 14 990 0 107 2 420 1 0 115 2 777 468 34 1 2 585 46 0 23 February 2012 CHEESES WMP SMP BUTTER EXTRA EU27 Switzerland New Zealand Norway Australia Ukraine USA China Israel Belarus Iceland Croatia Algeria Russia India Mexico Vietnam CONDENSED 29 909 BUTTEROIL WHEYPOWDER Source : EUROSTAT (COMEXT) 113 2 406 19 0 12 10 1 293 1 31 110 0 914 149 23 39 1 462 60 767 0 500 760 240 13 356 154 20 0 26 16 15 88 1 127 105 0 45 16 37 EU Exports of Dairy products (extra trade) EU Imports of Dairy products (extra trade) 700 000 100 000 600 000 2010 2010 90 000 2011 2011 80 000 70 000 50 000 300 000 40 000 30 000 200 000 20 000 100 000 10 000 0 23 February 2012 CASEINES WHEYPOWDER CONDENSED CHEESES WMP SMP BUTTEROIL BUTTER CASEINES WHEYPOWDER CONDENSED CHEESES WMP SMP BUTTEROIL 0 38 Tonnes 60 000 400 000 BUTTER Tonnes 500 000 EU-27 (Jan - Dec) United States (Jan-Dec ) Russia (Jan-Dec ) China (Jan-Dec ) BUTTER Imports 66 728 65 902 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 39 983 37 495 40 000 30 000 18 366 14 902 5 741 6 510 20 000 10 000 0 2010 23 February 2012 2011 39 BUTTEROIL Imports 32 837 EU-27 (Jan - Dec) United States (Jan-Dec ) Mexico (Jan-Nov ) China (Jan-Dec ) 35 000 30 000 23 047 25 000 17 290 20 000 15 000 8 185 8 547 6 540 2 885 2 367 10 000 5 000 0 2010 23 February 2012 2011 40 EU-27 (Jan - Dec) Russia (Jan-Dec ) SMP Imports China (Jan-Dec ) Algeria (Jan-Jul ) 160 000 129 868 140 000 120 000 90 728 88 544 62 818 80 000 53 334 60 000 27 179 3 825 100 000 40 000 20 000 468 0 2010 23 February 2012 2011 41 WMP Imports EU-27 (Jan - Dec) Algeria (Jan-Jul ) United States (Jan-Dec ) China (Jan-Dec ) 325 530 319 723 360 000 310 000 260 000 210 000 140 476 160 000 101 023 1 974 110 000 7 711 60 000 1 730 8 285 10 000 2010 23 February 2012 2011 -40 000 42 EU-27 (Jan - Dec) Russia (Jan-Dec ) Japan (Jan-Dec ) United States (Jan-Dec ) CHEESES Imports 350 000 295 732 294 280 300 000 250 000 215 262 199 081 200 000 142 995 138 296 82 507 150 000 73 533 100 000 50 000 0 2010 23 February 2012 2011 43 (Butter) Main Dairy Importers Russia 1000 tonnes 1000 Tonnes 14 Jan-Dec 2011 compared to 2010 : - 1.2% 12 125 2010 2011 100 10 8 75 6 101 50 70 67 Up to 67 Nov752010 50 25 67 4 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan Egypt Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 0 Dec 1000 tonnes 1000 Tonnes 7 Jan-Nov 2011 compared to 2010 : + 15.8% 6 125 5 100 2011 2010 75 2011 50 4 3 2 25 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 32 34 27 2008 2009 2010 1 Jan 23 February 2012 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 0 Dec 44 (S.M.P.) Main Dairy Importers Mexico 1000 tonnes 1000 Tonnes 30 Jan-Nov 2011 compared to 2010 : + 25% 175 25 150 20 125 2011 100 75 141 155 152 111 50 165 2010 15 155 121 10 25 0 5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Algeria Oct Nov 0 Dec 1000 tonnes 1000 Tonnes 25 Jan-Jul 2011 compared to 2010 : + 70% 175 2011 20 150 125 15 2010 100 10 75 50 90 84 25 0 2004 2005 68 2006 91 105 93 98 5 2007 2008 2009 2010 Up to Nov 2010 23 February 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 0 Dec 45 (W.M.P.) Main Dairy Importers China Jan-Dec 2011 compared to 2010 : - 2% 1000 tonnes 60 1000 Tonnes 350 50 2011 300 2009 40 250 200 100 50 0 30 326 150 20 177 90 64 2004 2005 73 58 2006 2007 2008 10 2010 46 2009 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Nigeria Oct Nov 1000 tonnes 1000 Tonnes 60 Jan-Sep 2011 compared to 2010 : - 58% 50 350 300 40 250 200 625 30 1 144 2010 150 240 100 20 149 50 0 2011 10 47 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan 23 February 2012 0 Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 0 Dec 46 Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2) Russia 1000 tonnes 1000 Tonnes 35 Jan-Dec 2011 compared to 2010 : + 0% 30 250 25 200 2010 150 100 213 260 218 234 248 229 20 2011 294 15 10 50 0 5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Japan Oct Nov 0 Dec 1000 tonnes 1000 Tonnes 35 Jan-Dec 2011 compared to 2010 : + 8% 30 250 25 200 2011 2010 150 100 219 212 207 225 187 184 199 2008 2009 2010 15 10 50 0 5 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan 23 February 2012 20 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 0 Dec 47 Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2) United States 1000 tonnes 1000 Tonnes 20 Jan-Dec 2011 compared to 2010 : + 3% 250 15 200 2010 150 100 10 216 211 205 200 171 2011 162 138 5 50 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Mexico Oct Nov 0 Dec 1000 tonnes 1000 Tonnes 20 Jan-Nov 2011 compared to 2010 : - 1% 250 15 200 150 10 100 50 0 2010 75 2004 79 79 86 2005 2006 2007 68 73 2008 2009 80 2010 Jan 23 February 2012 5 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 0 Dec 48 BUTTER - Top 10 Importers in 2010 Tons 2008 Russia Iran EU27 (External Trade) Egypt Morocco Australia Singapore China Taiwan Japan 75 33 56 31 33 16 16 7 8 18 193 076 447 794 016 758 750 832 586 154 2009 50 54 59 33 28 16 14 17 8 102 766 206 594 778 142 045 152 703 332 2010 66 55 37 26 24 16 15 14 11 2 728 678 568 671 850 639 934 902 984 033 up to Nov Nov Nov Jan-Dec 2010 66 55 37 22 24 16 14 14 10 2 728 678 495 821 850 639 213 902 833 033 Jan-Dec 2011 65 52 39 26 26 16 14 18 12 14 902 414 983 454 877 792 702 366 564 025 - 1.2% - 5.9% + 6.6% + 15.9% + 8.2% + 0.9% + 3.4% + 23.2% + 16.0% + 589.9% Source : GTA, Eurostat (COMEXT) 23 February 2012 49 BUTTEROIL - Top 10 Importers in 2010 Tons 2008 Mexico Nigeria Philippines India Indonesia China Thailand United States United Arab Emirates Russia 34 848 13 360 11 702 699 5 850 5 650 10 838 10 550 4 871 2009 55 18 17 22 8 10 6 14 6 3 623 489 044 571 028 874 939 836 859 930 2010 36 27 20 19 8 8 8 8 7 5 251 150 419 202 683 547 432 185 701 360 up to Nov Sep Nov Jun Nov Sep Jan-Dec 2010 32 23 18 10 8 8 8 8 5 5 837 958 929 583 345 547 432 185 154 360 Jan-Dec 2011 23 047 2 868 19 476 335 6 357 17 290 11 516 6 540 6 207 7 542 - 29.8% - 88.0% + 2.9% - 96.8% - 23.8% + 102.3% + 36.6% - 20.1% + 20.4% + 40.7% Source : GTA, Eurostat (COMEXT) 23 February 2012 50 SMP - Top 10 Importers in 2010 Tons 2008 Mexico Indonesia Philippines Algeria China Malaysia Russia Singapore Thailand Egypt 152 77 80 104 54 78 11 54 60 36 466 102 074 722 965 230 534 348 666 636 2009 165 103 112 92 70 84 7 61 50 28 067 800 431 624 443 044 973 431 116 137 2010 154 132 109 98 88 87 62 61 59 45 895 229 874 313 544 790 818 717 356 302 up to Nov Nov Nov Jul Nov Nov Nov Jan-Dec 2010 Jan-Dec 2011 143 125 101 53 88 80 62 57 59 40 179 118 106 90 129 87 27 56 63 44 509 211 909 334 544 578 818 474 356 558 292 807 004 728 868 189 179 283 703 295 + 24.9% - 5.1% + 4.0% + 70.1% + 46.7% + 8.2% - 56.7% - 2.1% + 7.3% + 9.2% Source : GTA, Eurostat (COMEXT) 23 February 2012 51 WMP - Top 10 Importers in 2010 Tons 2008 China Algeria Nigeria Singapore United Arab Emirates Sri Lanka Venezuela Indonesia Hong Kong Brazil 45 152 46 73 56 243 84 24 22 963 584 854 248 996 037 335 893 963 2009 177 200 239 73 84 56 214 50 32 57 345 176 859 869 685 022 518 311 606 204 2010 325 166 148 82 77 67 50 42 38 37 530 866 665 532 592 064 514 838 880 958 up to Jul Sep Nov Sep Nov Nov Jan-Dec 2010 325 101 107 75 61 67 41 39 38 37 530 023 050 102 891 064 252 792 880 958 Jan-Dec 2011 319 140 44 73 64 75 98 62 51 54 723 476 797 052 525 779 091 365 112 827 - 1.8% + 39.1% - 58.2% - 2.7% + 4.3% + 13.0% + 137.8% + 56.7% + 31.5% + 44.4% Source : GTA, Eurostat (COMEXT) 23 February 2012 52 CHEESE - Top 10 Importers in 2010 Tons 2008 Russia Japan United States EU27 (External Trade) Mexico Australia Egypt South Korea Nigeria Switzerland 248 186 170 84 68 68 21 47 3 41 279 502 616 462 245 093 238 386 697 071 2009 228 184 162 83 73 65 22 49 10 44 550 241 499 677 074 131 751 024 115 103 2010 294 199 138 82 80 75 67 60 55 46 280 081 296 504 359 612 710 972 483 892 up to Nov Nov Sep Jan-Dec 2010 Jan-Dec 2011 294 199 138 82 71 75 39 60 55 46 295 215 142 73 70 72 43 76 280 081 296 507 407 612 112 972 348 892 732 262 995 533 341 425 988 222 520 48 893 + 0.5% + 8.1% + 3.4% - 10.9% - 1.5% - 4.2% + 12.5% + 25.0% - 99.1% + 4.3% Source : GTA, Eurostat (COMEXT) 23 February 2012 53 BUTTER - Top 15 Exporters in 2010 Tons 2008 2009 2010 Main Destination to % New Zealand EU27 (External Trade) United States Australia Argentina Uruguay Norway India Brazil China Switzerland Singapore Ukraine Chile Russia 23 February 2012 269 114 82 29 14 9 4 9 3 4 3 5 1 2 538 612 997 162 558 701 903 440 838 393 30 106 032 776 102 330 113 23 50 14 17 4 1 1 2 4 1 539 651 064 213 206 736 807 566 963 049 266 923 645 892 2 151 278 122 47 36 10 9 3 211 126 837 226 582 936 381 504 038 471 802 437 3 067 1 445 Jan-Dec 2010 2011 up to % Iran 14% 12% Russia 24% #N/A Saudi Arabia 21% 5% Russia 16% #N/A Russia 32% 1% Russia 26% #N/A EU27 34% 34% #N/A 4 3 4 1 to EU Jan-Dec ##### #N/A Egypt 34% #N/A Iran 43% 1% Turkey 50% 7% Japan 51% Kazakhstan 50% 0% Peru 20% #N/A Azerbaijan 61% 245 126 45 36 10 6 2 4 3 4 1 3 1 392 255 189 236 94 735 489 52 496 225 23 595 434 19 332 882 9 941 219 456 507 2 730 505 1 125 001 3 259 146 5 425 604 2 344 400 1 076 067 3 698 444 1 174 + 4% - 25% + 15% - 35% + 85% Sep + 44% - 79% Jun + 438% - 75% + 9% + 31% Nov + 46% Nov + 169% + 21% - 19% 54 BUTTEROIL - Top 15 Exporters in 2010 Tons 2008 2009 2010 Main Destination to % New Zealand EU27 (External Trade) Australia United States Egypt Argentina India Yemen Singapore Malaysia Indonesia South Africa United Arab Emirates Canada Honduras 23 February 2012 106 31 16 11 9 7 9 7 4 1 840 508 728 052 549 876 450 663 190 545 275 541 713 177 28 30 6 3 2 4 2 3 1 1 101 008 258 042 147 581 209 684 472 384 083 405 423 187 84 147 25 17 12 6 4 810 607 769 356 238 152 11% 0.5% Russia 16% #N/A Thailand 12% #N/A Mexico 41% 7.7% Syria 20% 0.5% Philippines 23% #N/A ##### #N/A Ethiopia 64% #N/A Japan 19% #N/A Saudi Arabia 18% #N/A Philippines 92% #N/A Zimbabwe 88% Singapore 24% 0.1% United States 95% #N/A 100% #N/A Guatemala Jan-Dec 2010 2011 up to % United States #N/A 2 475 3 204 3 525 974 562 731 125 657 to EU Jan-Dec 147 26 17 11 5 4 2 2 3 3 137 155 447 782 27 278 767 15 040 400 10 515 254 3 932 152 7 238 282 3 744 179 1 511 066 2 134 507 2 417 882 447 503 135 635 313 125 163 659 771 + 6% + 2% - 15% - 8% Nov - 25% + 74% Jun + 64% Sep - 31% Nov - 30% Nov - 31% Nov - 49% Nov - 73% Sep - 51% + 30% + 17% 55 SMP - Top 15 Exporters in 2010 Tons 2008 2009 2010 Main Destination to % United States New Zealand EU27 (External Trade) Australia Ukraine India Switzerland Argentina Uruguay Singapore Canada Malaysia Jordan Iran United Arab Emirates 23 February 2012 398 242 179 126 43 43 6 13 9 14 11 8 6 3 033 036 076 264 624 794 371 935 358 892 725 297 839 109 248 408 231 167 26 15 26 12 19 9 10 5 6 2 6 020 010 183 633 998 413 733 570 529 108 443 768 446 414 461 385 343 378 132 13 013 398 412 640 895 30% 0.3% China 15% 0.0% Algeria 25% #N/A Indonesia 14% 0.5% Bangladesh 079 765 360 533 124 680 970 489 298 Jan-Dec 2010 2011 up to % Mexico 28% #N/A ##### #N/A Egypt 17% 3.3% Brazil 47% #N/A Brazil 39% Japan 37% 0.1% Thailand #N/A 23 19 11 9 6 6 2 7 3 to EU Jan-Dec 29% 0.4% United Arab Emirates 17% #N/A Iraq 61% #N/A Iraq 79% #N/A Somalia 41% 383 343 378 132 11 10 22 19 7 8 6 5 2 7 2 934 371 838 008 662 076 324 765 582 611 100 273 483 491 051 436 361 517 140 21 2 14 18 13 15 9 8 2 4 2 233 603 812 358 167 868 329 531 705 916 871 233 262 764 840 + 14% + 5% + 37% + 6% Nov + 82% Jun - 72% - 36% - 6% Sep + 81% Nov + 85% + 62% Nov Nov + 56% - 9% - 36% Sep + 38% 56 WMP - Top 15 Exporters in 2010 Tons 2008 2009 2010 Main Destination to % New Zealand EU27 (External Trade) Australia Argentina Singapore Uruguay United States Philippines Brazil United Arab Emirates Indonesia China Malaysia Chile Ukraine 23 February 2012 606 666 484 939 140 915 103 419 62 413 39 293 41 200 44 915 82 895 40 691 62 388 40 226 14 545 21 218 819 089 462 841 133 418 146 823 57 805 54 381 23 210 28 570 12 923 49 996 25 505 9 738 17 984 13 928 4 708 949 778 444 210 114 695 128 059 64 199 61 459 53 789 37 802 5 078 43 688 16 737 2 781 13 405 8 864 6 110 to EU Jan-Dec Jan-Dec 2010 2011 up to % China 31% 0.1% Algeria 15% #N/A Singapore 15% 0.1% Venezuela 28% #N/A Japan 41% 0.1% Venezuela 25% #N/A Mexico 20% 1.9% Malaysia 28% 0.0% Algeria 48% Saudi Arabia 41% 0.1% Malaysia 27% #N/A Myanmar 48% #N/A Singapore 23% #N/A Brazil 30% #N/A Russia 54% 948 701 1 110 408 447 173 389 767 114 541 116 241 128 058 200 272 58 616 46 282 41 794 38 587 52 745 21 835 34 207 40 429 5 078 1 217 36 647 44 324 15 722 9 319 2 780 9 127 12 595 10 019 8 864 14 043 5 814 2 119 + 17% - 13% + 1% + 56% Nov Sep - 21% - 8% - 59% Nov + 18% Sep + 21% - 76% Nov - 41% + 228% Nov - 20% + 58% Nov - 64% 57 CHEESE - Top 15 Exporters in 2010 Tons 2008 2009 2010 Main Destination to % EU27 (External Trade) New Zealand Australia United States Egypt Switzerland Ukraine Argentina Uruguay Nicaragua Turkey Russia Morocco Norway Iran 23 February 2012 554 262 166 139 101 100 77 36 28 29 19 23 17 17 7 578 567 415 252 025 959 427 213 937 760 825 757 169 496 744 577 315 168 112 130 105 76 48 35 28 23 21 17 15 12 850 780 255 025 459 013 567 076 170 535 383 196 701 594 581 675 287 162 178 167 106 79 45 39 26 26 18 17 16 18 987 200 954 017 847 101 315 103 822 022 782 291 247 308 089 to EU Jan-Dec Jan-Dec 2010 2011 up to % Russia 32% #N/A Australia 19% 8% Japan 52% 2% Mexico 27% 2% Saudi Arabia 22% 0% EU27 45% 45% Russia 83% 0% Brazil 31% #N/A Venezuela 46% #N/A El Salvador 78% #N/A Saudi Arabia 34% 0% Ukraine 39% 0% Jordan 25% 0% United States 44% 17% Iraq 83% 0% 676 264 159 175 151 58 72 45 26 26 26 18 17 13 18 086 818 909 142 452 379 479 105 850 022 781 290 209 543 026 682 253 167 225 157 59 72 60 27 30 30 13 15 14 22 148 142 669 931 267 904 167 054 370 213 524 825 234 048 574 + 1% - 4% + 5% + 29% Nov + 4% + 3% Nov - 0% + 33% Sep + 2% + 16% + 14% - 24% - 11% + 4% + 25% 58 Source: USDA Adjusted U.S. milk production (months of constant length) 7 800 U.S. milk production 7 600 . Nov Dec Oct Sep Jul Aug Jun Apr May Mar Feb Jan 7 400 7 000 in tonnes 7 200 6 800 Jan-Dec 2011 compared to 2010 : + 1.8% (real monthly production) 2007 23 February 2012 2008 2009 2010 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 6 600 2011 59 U.S. milk production 8 000 7 800 7 600 7 200 . 7 400 6 800 6 600 6 400 Jan-Dec 2011 compared to 2010 : + 1.8% (real monthly production) in tonnes 7 000 6 200 2007 23 February 2012 2008 2009 2010 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 6 000 2011 Source: USDA 60 Australian milk production 1 200 Jul-Jan 2011/12 compared to 2010/11 : + 3.8% 1 100 . 1 000 800 in tonnes 900 700 600 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul 500 2011/12 Source: Dairy Australia 23 February 2012 61 NZ milk production 3 500 Jun-Nov 2011/12 compared to 2010/11 : + 8.6% 3 000 1 500 1 000 in tonnes 2 000 . 2 500 500 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun 0 2011/12 Source: DCANZ - Fonterra 23 February 2012 62 Results of the Fonterra Auction of 15.02.2012 % change by contract from previous auction Prices in US$/t AMF BMP Cheeses MPC70 Rennet Casein SMP WMP Mar12 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2 830 n.a. 3 406 n.a. 3 503 5 470 7 735 3 246 3 386 1€= 15.02.2012 in €/t AMF BMP Cheese MPC70 Rennet Casein SMP WMP Apr12 Mar12 n.a. 2 162 Apr12 2 601 n.a. 2 675 4 178 5 908 2 479 2 586 Weighted average price May12-Jul12 Aug12-Oct12 3 632 n.a. 3 608 5 660 7 725 3 391 3 446 4 110 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3 473 3 586 3 546 n.a. 3 559 5 571 7 730 3 259 3 421 % change Contract Contract Contract Contract period 1 period 2 period 3 period 4 - 10.0% - 10.3% - 10.8% - 2.2% - 2.1% - 2.7% + 0.0% + 4.8% - 5.5% + 0.2% - 1.1% - 3.2% + 0.1% - 0.6% - 3.1% + 0.3% - 2.4% - 5.4% - 5.9% - 4.9% + 0.5% + 4.0% 1.3092 $ (ECB rate) May12-Jul12 Aug12-Oct12 2 774 n.a. 2 756 4 323 5 901 2 590 2 632 3 139 n.a. #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 2 653 2 739 Weighted average price 2 709 n.a. 2 718 4 256 5 905 2 490 2 613 Source: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/ 23 February 2012 63