The long-term trends
behind agricultural
markets
Conference:
2024 Prospects for EU Agricultural Markets
Brussels,
5 December 2014
Sophie Hélaine
Koen Mondelaers, Paloma Cortés, Adamo Uboldi
DG Agriculture and Rural Development
European Commission
Dairy
22
Cereals
Food
2014M01
2013M01
2012M01
2011M01
2010M01
2009M01
2008M01
2007M01
2006M01
2005M01
2004M01
2003M01
2002M01
2001M01
2000M01
1999M01
1998M01
1997M01
1996M01
1995M01
1994M01
1993M01
1992M01
1991M01
1990M01
FAO real food price indices
(2002-04=100)
250
200
150
100
50
0
Drivers of price increase
Tight stocks
Lower
productivity
growth
Prod. costs
Oil prices
Higher agricultural
commodity prices
Growing
demand
Financialisation
33
Billion inhabitants
A growing world population…
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1961-1973
1973-1985
1985-1997
Developed
Developing
4
1997-2009
2009-2013
Annual change
…but at a slower pace…
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.5%
1.25%
1.16%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1961-1973
1973-1985
1985-1997
5
1997-2009
2009-2013
Annual change
…like consumption growth
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
1961-1973
Total consumption
1973-1985
Population
1985-1997
Calories per Capita
6
1997-2009
2009-2013
Proteins per Capita
Changes in consumption patterns
World domestic use versus population annual growth
Size of bubbles represents total average consumption over the period.
7
Lower increase in meat intake
while growing potential for dairy
Domestic use versus population annual growth
Size of bubbles represents total average consumption over the period.
8
National income per capita, 1000 USD
(2005 constant prices)
A higher income per capita at disposal…
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
World
Developing
1973-1985
Brazil
1985-1997
Russia
1997-2009
9
China
2009-2012
India
Share of urban population
…and higher urbanisation
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
World
Developed
1961-1973
1985-1997
10
Developing
2009-2013
Demand supplied domestically or with imports?
the example of China
0 = self-sufficiency
Cereals
Meat
Milk
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
1985-1997
1997-2009
11
2009-2013
China's share in world milk powder imports
and world dairy prices
FAO nominal price index
2002-04 = 100
% of world total
25%
20%
250
200
15%
150
Chinese imports
Dairy price index
10%
100
5%
50
0%
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f
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Conclusions
• Consumption is still growing…
• Because of population growth
• Higher income at disposal
• But at a slower pace
• While per capita intake is rising
• And consumption patterns are changing
• Does it affect prices?
• Yes, if production doesn't grow at the same pace
• and imports of big players increase
• For how long?
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Thanks!
Market brief soon available here:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/marketbriefs/index_en.htm
DISCLAIMER: While all efforts are made to reach robust market and income prospects, uncertainties
remain. This publication does not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Commission.
© European Union, 2014 - Reproduction authorized provided the source is acknowledged
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